CFL Syndicate 2024
- Thread starter Hulu
- Start date
Hulu
#3DownNation
1* Montreal -6.5 -107
I paused when I read a tweet from someone taking Ottawa because he said "Montreal isn't built to win big". So I looked it up. Here are the margins for their current 7 game winning streak dating back to last year...
2024
3 - 2nd game of a west road trip, EDM scored late to cover
15
2023
2 - end of season meaningless game @ Hamilton
14
26 - vs OTT
17 - @ OTT
17
So I think he is full of shit. Montreal has been getting plenty of margin in most games. Almost 2 TDs per game on average.
Ottawa, fat and happy off their gutsy win over a winnipeg team in dissaray, is in for a humbling tonight.
I paused when I read a tweet from someone taking Ottawa because he said "Montreal isn't built to win big". So I looked it up. Here are the margins for their current 7 game winning streak dating back to last year...
2024
3 - 2nd game of a west road trip, EDM scored late to cover
15
2023
2 - end of season meaningless game @ Hamilton
14
26 - vs OTT
17 - @ OTT
17
So I think he is full of shit. Montreal has been getting plenty of margin in most games. Almost 2 TDs per game on average.
Ottawa, fat and happy off their gutsy win over a winnipeg team in dissaray, is in for a humbling tonight.
Last edited:
I think your play is Montreal -6.5 not Winnipeg?
Hulu
#3DownNation
Whoops yeah thanks. Corrected now.
sjmartin57ca
Are The Danes Still Sleeping?
On the same Parley, BOL.
Montreal ML + Argentina ML 50/75
Ottawa/Montreal o48.5 50/94
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
I am on ALL the dogs until week 4 thats what the data says. I am sticking with it.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I was listening to the 'X's and Argos' poscast this morning and co-host JB had a good point. In Toronto's first game win, they were averaging a league-worst first down yardage but had a league-best 2nd down conversion rate. That is not a recipe for long term success.
He's right. When you look at the best teams, they are always near the top in first down yardage. It makes their opening game win look like an outlier against a BC team that wasn't ready.
He's right. When you look at the best teams, they are always near the top in first down yardage. It makes their opening game win look like an outlier against a BC team that wasn't ready.
Looking at tonight's game, man its a tough one to call. Do the Bombers pull out of their slump? Don't know if I trust them. On the other hand, can I trust B.C on only 6 days rest, on the road against what I imagine is a desperate Bomber team.
May end up passing on this one. Can't get a read either way
May end up passing on this one. Can't get a read either way
Got to take a real hard look at the total. 51.5 is a lot of points. Again, B.C. is on a short week, I can see VA struggling to move the ball. On the other hand, Winnipeg's offense without Lawler has been a real struggle.
Thinking UNDER 51.5 is the only appealing play here
Thinking UNDER 51.5 is the only appealing play here
Hulu
#3DownNation
Me too. Its a tough call.
Based on what we've seen through 2 games it would have to be BC. But we also know WInnipeg isn't going 0-18, they will win some games, probably a majority of them at home. So here's an opportunity to get off the mat against a team on short rest with a bad OL and one of their key receivers out. It really could go either way.
Not surprised. I think a lot of that money is from the "can't see Winnipeg dropping 2 in a row at home" crowd. I get that angle but until Winnipeg shows that they can win a game im not sure how you can trust them here. Remember they lost SU to Ottawa that just got shellacked last night. Without Lawler, Collaros is struggling to get the ball downfield. I just have a hard time seeing them putting up points again tonight.
sjmartin57ca
Are The Danes Still Sleeping?
Can't get a handle on tonights game either just gonna skip it to many questions, lol, I see Oliveira is listed as backup and limited snaps for what thats worth.
Hulu
#3DownNation
In my 7 years of posting here this might be my dumbest bet. I really thought the Bombers were grabbing some momentum and had a late FG drive in them.
Had I been paying closer attention, I wouldve caught that receivers Schoen and Wheatfall had both exited the game and the team was so short on receivers they had backup QB STreveler in as the 5th guy. D'Oh!
Winnipeg also lost rookie DB Tyrell Ford in the second half. This team is in the worst injury hell I've seen in a long time.
sjmartin57ca
Are The Danes Still Sleeping?
May wanna keep an eye on the weather for Argos game not so good here.
Noted
Hmm. Maybe under then?
Can't get a read on this one either side wise.
sjmartin57ca
Are The Danes Still Sleeping?
I was ready to play the Over and put Argos ML with something else, in good weather I'm thinking 55-60pts, but since the weather has changed so has my mind may skip altogether even the wind has kicked and its been raining 2 hours now and looks like its getting worse. Yep like you I'm thinking a small bet on Under.
Hulu
#3DownNation
1* HAM / SSK over 49.5 -107
Not sure why this total is ticking down. These are two of the most over teams in the league and they just put up 66 last week. I don't see that anything has changed. Both defences are still mediocre at best and both offences are healthy and moving the ball well. The weather looks good. I don't see how one or both of these teams don't put up 30+.
I will likely be on the side too but waiting for 3 closer to kickoff
Not sure why this total is ticking down. These are two of the most over teams in the league and they just put up 66 last week. I don't see that anything has changed. Both defences are still mediocre at best and both offences are healthy and moving the ball well. The weather looks good. I don't see how one or both of these teams don't put up 30+.
I will likely be on the side too but waiting for 3 closer to kickoff
sjmartin57ca
Are The Danes Still Sleeping?
Yea I like the o49.5 & Sask -1.5 as well. Haven't seen any last second injuries, all I can see about total trickling down is 60% chance of T-storms around 6pm Sask. time who knows, lol.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I'm seeing 30% chance of rain now but some significant wind. 20 gusting to 50. But some stadiums are more affected by wind than others and Mosaic, with its mostly enclosed design, I don't think gets as much wind action as others.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Ok I have mild PTSD after last night's game and I was fully planning to take a couple of days off to clear my head before getting back at it. Then I looked at week 4 lines and, well, I'm a gambler. Its what I do...
2* Calgary +3.5 -114
How on earth is Winnipeg favoured by 3.5 on the road against a Calgary team off a bye? Winnipeg is in major injury hell. Cluster injuries at both DL and receiver with Schoen likely added to the 6gm this week. This team is a shell of what it once was and I have them rated 1.5pts worse than Calgary. This is a ridiculous line. I made it Calgary -2.5
2* Calgary +3.5 -114
How on earth is Winnipeg favoured by 3.5 on the road against a Calgary team off a bye? Winnipeg is in major injury hell. Cluster injuries at both DL and receiver with Schoen likely added to the 6gm this week. This team is a shell of what it once was and I have them rated 1.5pts worse than Calgary. This is a ridiculous line. I made it Calgary -2.5
Early look at week 4
BC/Edmonton. Money coming in on Edmonton as this line has dropped from BC -7 to -5.5, with a total of 52.5. Fully understandable. Elks, while sporting an 0-3 record, have been in every game and really have had only one really bad quarter when they gave up 21 against Sask last week. They only lost by 3 to Toronto and Montreal. I like the composure of this team, but their defence is still the weak spot here. With regards to BC, I am still not convinced. Their defence has been all over the place so far and I can see the Elks putting up a few points in this one. With regards to the total, it's either OVER or nothing with how both these defenses are playing.
RIght now, looking at a 7 pt teaser. Elks +12.5, Over 45.5
Can't see how that one can lose
BC/Edmonton. Money coming in on Edmonton as this line has dropped from BC -7 to -5.5, with a total of 52.5. Fully understandable. Elks, while sporting an 0-3 record, have been in every game and really have had only one really bad quarter when they gave up 21 against Sask last week. They only lost by 3 to Toronto and Montreal. I like the composure of this team, but their defence is still the weak spot here. With regards to BC, I am still not convinced. Their defence has been all over the place so far and I can see the Elks putting up a few points in this one. With regards to the total, it's either OVER or nothing with how both these defenses are playing.
RIght now, looking at a 7 pt teaser. Elks +12.5, Over 45.5
Can't see how that one can lose
Good catch, didn't even look at that one yet. On the road no less! Books are still overvaluing Winnipeg and I will exploit that for as long as I can.
Might sprinkle some on the ML at +151
sjmartin57ca
Are The Danes Still Sleeping?
Good stuff guys looks like we all on the same page, when I looked at the early lines this morning(7am) I was pleased with what I saw maybe have to put in some early plays like tonight or tomorrow, I think lines and totals are going to be doing a lot of moving this week. Still having a hard time figuring out where the books are coming up with these lines. I am now caught up have watched every game since week 1 twice and I am not seeing what the books are seeing with their lines. BOL & Cheers
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
winless Away dogs getting more than +4
41-23 ATS
If these games do not take place on Friday or Saturday
21-5 ATS
bottom line is these teams are undervalued because the have not won yet
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Thursday away dogs since the 2020 (the year the CFL season was cancelled ) these are 14-4 ATS.
So in Edmonton's case we have 2 strong situations. Thursday dogs are great and winless teams are also great.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Friday night Alouettes-3
A and F and day=Friday and n:H and week>3 and p:W and line>-6 and op:L
away favorites on Friday starting week 4 and beyond when their next game will be home, when our favorite won their previous game and their opponent lost their last game and the current line is from -1 to -5.5.
19-9 ATS
A and F and day=Friday and n:H and week>3 and p:W and line>-6 and op:L
away favorites on Friday starting week 4 and beyond when their next game will be home, when our favorite won their previous game and their opponent lost their last game and the current line is from -1 to -5.5.
19-9 ATS
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Winnipeg which I will not be playing this game.
A and F and week>3 and line>-6 and t:wins<3
away favorite that has won less than 3 games with a line >-6 week is 4+
27-8 ats
this league hates home dogs after week 3
A and F and week>3 and line>-6 and t:wins<3
away favorite that has won less than 3 games with a line >-6 week is 4+
27-8 ats
this league hates home dogs after week 3
Hulu
#3DownNation
1* EDM / BC over 52.5 -115
Totals are adjusting upwards but not enough yet IMO. Since the covid year, we've seen such low totals that they've become the norm but I think we are finally seeing the CFL come back to its pre-pandemic style of play when totals were normally in the 51-53 range. In this game we have 2 QBs who are throwing all over the place and 2 defences that are less than stellar. I could easily see this one topping 60.
Totals are adjusting upwards but not enough yet IMO. Since the covid year, we've seen such low totals that they've become the norm but I think we are finally seeing the CFL come back to its pre-pandemic style of play when totals were normally in the 51-53 range. In this game we have 2 QBs who are throwing all over the place and 2 defences that are less than stellar. I could easily see this one topping 60.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Week 4 thoughts...
BC/EDM
Well I bet EDM and the over so pretty obvious how I think it is going to go. BC wins something like 32-27. I also considered a Stanback rush yards over prop but at 68.5 yards its pretty steep. Then again that Elk run defense is pretty bad.
MTL/TOR
No idea what to think here. Montreal has looked like the juggernaut we expected so thats pretty straightforward. But Toronto has surprised in a couple of ways this year. First of all their defence is nowhere near what is was last year, especially the secondary. Second, Cameron Dukes has outperformed what anyone expected. He's small and doesn't have the strongest arm but he's extremely mobile and can throw accurately, even on the run. Most of all he just hasn't made any mistakes. 5 TDs to 0 INTs through 2 games with an 81% completion rate. Its not flashy but it is effective. It doesn't hurt that he plays behind the league's best OL and has 3 stud RBs who can carry the rock. Will Montreal's superior defence be his undoing or will he surprise us once again? I'd rather find out with no money on the line. Pass.
WPG/CGY
I cannot understand this line whatsoever. I have Calgary favoured by 2.5. They are not a great team by any means and I have them rated a half point below average. But right now I think they are miles ahead of Winnipeg. Look you can lose 1 player in a position group and the dropoff isn't huge. Maybe 2 if you have some depth at that position. But when you lose 3 or more players in a position group, the dropoff in talent, experience and chemistry is massive. And the Bombers are facing that with both their DL and receivers. Just look at how their depleted DL made BC's crap OL look competent last week. VAj had all the time in the world to pick them apart. And they may be starting a receiver who just rejoined the team this week after being cut in training camp. Add in the fact that Calgary is at home and off a bye, I just don't see a universe where Winnipeg should be the favourite.
HAM/OTT
Another game I can't figure out. In the battle of the bottom dwellers, who is the worst? Hamilton's defence is awful and I'm not sure if we are seeing a Bo renaissance or he is reverting to his washed up form from the past few years. 2nd straight road game for Hamilton too. Ottawa doesn't look great and Dru Brown has been unimpressive so far. I don't see a way to get involved in this game. Pass.
BC/EDM
Well I bet EDM and the over so pretty obvious how I think it is going to go. BC wins something like 32-27. I also considered a Stanback rush yards over prop but at 68.5 yards its pretty steep. Then again that Elk run defense is pretty bad.
MTL/TOR
No idea what to think here. Montreal has looked like the juggernaut we expected so thats pretty straightforward. But Toronto has surprised in a couple of ways this year. First of all their defence is nowhere near what is was last year, especially the secondary. Second, Cameron Dukes has outperformed what anyone expected. He's small and doesn't have the strongest arm but he's extremely mobile and can throw accurately, even on the run. Most of all he just hasn't made any mistakes. 5 TDs to 0 INTs through 2 games with an 81% completion rate. Its not flashy but it is effective. It doesn't hurt that he plays behind the league's best OL and has 3 stud RBs who can carry the rock. Will Montreal's superior defence be his undoing or will he surprise us once again? I'd rather find out with no money on the line. Pass.
WPG/CGY
I cannot understand this line whatsoever. I have Calgary favoured by 2.5. They are not a great team by any means and I have them rated a half point below average. But right now I think they are miles ahead of Winnipeg. Look you can lose 1 player in a position group and the dropoff isn't huge. Maybe 2 if you have some depth at that position. But when you lose 3 or more players in a position group, the dropoff in talent, experience and chemistry is massive. And the Bombers are facing that with both their DL and receivers. Just look at how their depleted DL made BC's crap OL look competent last week. VAj had all the time in the world to pick them apart. And they may be starting a receiver who just rejoined the team this week after being cut in training camp. Add in the fact that Calgary is at home and off a bye, I just don't see a universe where Winnipeg should be the favourite.
HAM/OTT
Another game I can't figure out. In the battle of the bottom dwellers, who is the worst? Hamilton's defence is awful and I'm not sure if we are seeing a Bo renaissance or he is reverting to his washed up form from the past few years. 2nd straight road game for Hamilton too. Ottawa doesn't look great and Dru Brown has been unimpressive so far. I don't see a way to get involved in this game. Pass.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I don't like this bet as much as I once did. To hear MBT whining about the short week of rest made me think that if he is grumbling, there are probably others on the team grumbling as well and thats not a team I really want to back. Sometimes people prepare themselves for failure and thats what it sounded like.
But it moved across the 7 which gives me the chance to extract myself with the chance for a middle. With regards to the second leg, Hamilton, I think either team could win this game but Ottawa's offence isn't good enough to blow anyone out so I think its at least close.
1* Teaser BC Lions -0.5 / Hamilton +7 +100
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
I think the BC line is juiced up because of the EDM travel. Don't think anyone would power rate this game 7/7.5 without the travel. Only 4 full days off for them traveling from Toronto to EDM then out to BC is a rough, rough spot.
Even still I had to take a nibble at 7.
Even still I had to take a nibble at 7.
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Under is probably a better play. Both teams on a short week after tough games last week. This could be quite sloppy.
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