CFL Syndicate 2024

okay as much as I love dogs Montral is only -6.5 -115 tonight.


The way I look at this tonight?

I am focusing on Calgary on this one. I already stated I like Montreal and won’t fade them.

Calgary : was a home dog +3.5 winner last game to WPG ? Get that? A home dog to WPG?

I know am discounting WPG like they are the worst. No that’s not true but they deserve to be dogs this season. In my opinion they are middle of the pack or bottom of the middle of the pack.

Calgary was +8 at BC 2 games ago

According to those lines : Montreal only -6.5 -115 is a discount.

I’ll buy into the discounted favorite in what looks to be another game where Montreal should be at the original line of -9.5

Regular size bet

Al’s -6.5 -115

Small size on under 50 (current line)
 

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BC’s last 2 lines are the influence for my action tonight.

I do this more in college football and it’s really good.

Let’s see what happens tonight

I’m also considering in game play if BC jumps out early.
 
spottie2935 said:
okay as much as I love dogs Montral is only -6.5 -115 tonight.


The way I look at this tonight?

I am focusing on Calgary on this one. I already stated I like Montreal and won’t fade them.

Calgary : was a home dog +3.5 winner last game to WPG ? Get that? A home dog to WPG?

I know am discounting WPG like they are the worst. No that’s not true but they deserve to be dogs this season. In my opinion they are middle of the pack or bottom of the middle of the pack.

Calgary was +8 at BC 2 games ago

According to those lines : Montreal only -6.5 -115 is a discount.

I’ll buy into the discounted favorite in what looks to be another game where Montreal should be at the original line of -9.5

Regular size bet

Al’s -6.5 -115

Small size on under 50 (current line)
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Great stuff
 
Hulu said:
0.5* Live Montreal -1.5 +110
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Oh man I screwed myself with this one. I need to stop live betting. Too many permutations to think about while the lines are bouncing around.

Nevermind. Long live live betting!
 
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I feel like in 10 years fans will be dissecting how two identical twins came out of college and the combine with pretty much identical numbers and yet one became a star and the other did almost nothing.
 
B.A.R. said:
Good work bro.
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In reality, I got incredibly lucky.

When I made that -1.5 bet, Montreal had scored to come within 5 and then forced a Calgary punt. What I had completely forgotten was that I had paused my tv to run upstairs and grab a pizza delivery earlier so I was actually 3 minutes behind the live feed when I made that bet. In that 3 mintues, Montreal had driven down the field, been stopped and was about to kick a FG to get within 2. I realized they were now only playing for a FG to win and the only way my bet could win was if someone busted a big play TD. And thats exactly what happened when Walter Fletcher took off around the right side for a big TD run on the next drive.

Thats ok though. I've had my share of bad bounces this year so I'll take the luckbox win.
 
Hulu said:
1* Hamilton +5.5 -109
Click to expand...

Seems like late money coming in on BC so I'm adding. Really like Hamilton tonight. Not a homer bet at all. I think I have some solid reasoning for it.

0.5* Hamilton +6 -106
0.5* Hamilton ML +235
 
Season Results through Week 5

Sides 10-5 +2.40*
Totals 4-3 -0.90*
Parlay/Tease 2-0 +1.25*
Live/2H 1-3 -2.00*
Props 0-1 -0.55*

Overall 17-12 +0.20*

Rough week going 2-3 with a big loss on the hapless tabbies. They have no defence, that much is clear. Onward we go.
 
1* SSK / BC under 52.5 -110

This total is flat out wrong and it won't stay at this number for long methinks.
 
1* Montreal -6.5 -107

Toronto sucks...full stop. Cam Dukes may have fooled the league for a couple of games but the jig is up as the last 2 games defences have exposed him badly. Now Dinwiddie is hinting at some sort of role for Nick Arbuckle next week. It won't work. We've seen Arbuckle's ceiling and it ain't high. Ceresna will be out, further adding to the Argos DL woes as well. They get Tunde Adeleke back from injury but it will take more than one DB to save this awful secondary. After getting a scare vs Calgary this past week, I think Montreal reasserts their dominance on Thursday.
 
Hulu said:
1* Montreal -6.5 -107

Toronto sucks...full stop. Cam Dukes may have fooled the league for a couple of games but the jig is up as the last 2 games defences have exposed him badly. Now Dinwiddie is hinting at some sort of role for Nick Arbuckle next week. It won't work. We've seen Arbuckle's ceiling and it ain't high. Ceresna will be out, further adding to the Argos DL woes as well. They get Tunde Adeleke back from injury but it will take more than one DB to save this awful secondary. After getting a scare vs Calgary this past week, I think Montreal reasserts their dominance on Thursday.
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Both plays look to be on the mark. You’re going to have a good week. I haven’t don’t the data on any game as of yet.

Toronto is a little bit scary because previous game away favorites on paper look good as dogs. The contrast to that is Toronto has been home 3 times so far and 2 of those are home dogs. A team that has been Multiple Home dogs playing the best team as away dogs must be getting more points than +6.5.

I won’t play Toronto if the data is against MTL I’ll pass on the game.
 
1* Calgary +5 -109

This number has ballooned in a ridiculous way. It opened at 2.5 and now its 5?? What has Winnipeg done to deserve being 5 point favs over anyone?? So they won a game last week over the pathetic redblacks. Meaningless. Collaros is back but he hardly looked good before he was hurt. The only thing that gives pause here is that its Calgary's second dtraight road game and they're on a short week but I still think as a team they are head and shoulders above the Bombers and should be able to keep it close.
 
What did RAS play this week? I know they have been playing CFL and moving numbers. The lines suggest they played Winnipeg.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
What did RAS play this week? I know they have been playing CFL and moving numbers. The lines suggest they played Winnipeg.
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No shit?

Is this their first CFL year? I haven't seen much since that crazy off brand CBB year from them (only because I saw all the drama on SM).
 
B.A.R. said:
No shit?

Is this their first CFL year? I haven't seen much since that crazy off brand CBB year from them (only because I saw all the drama on SM).
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They did CFL last year too. I've never been afraid to fade their line moves though. Chernoff or whatever his name is is a CFL know-nothing. He has tweeted some really dumb shit
 
Hulu said:
They did CFL last year too. I've never been afraid to fade their line moves though. Chernoff or whatever his name is is a CFL know-nothing. He has tweeted some really dumb shit
Click to expand...
Oh that's right, he works for them.
 
Evening everyone, well looks like last weekends plays went as well as our yearly fishing trip went this week, lol, of 6 days 3 spend in the cottage with rain rain rain everywhere, the trip wasn't a total failure, 1 12lb pike & 1 14lb pickerel and I swear I caught the same 6 inch perch 10 times over the 6 days hope he is thankful that I threw him back every time, lol.

ML.........1-1
Spread.6-0
O/U.......5-3
Parley...1-2
Total......13-6 +$224

Cal/Wpg o48.5 50/94
 
sjmartin57ca said:
Evening everyone, well looks like last weekends plays went as well as our yearly fishing trip went this week, lol, of 6 days 3 spend in the cottage with rain rain rain everywhere, the trip wasn't a total failure, 1 12lb pike & 1 14lb pickerel and I swear I caught the same 6 inch perch 10 times over the 6 days hope he is thankful that I threw him back every time, lol.

ML.........1-1
Spread.6-0
O/U.......5-3
Parley...1-2
Total......13-6 +$224

Cal/Wpg o48.5 50/94
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Nice call. Didn't have to sweat that one.

That 14lb pickerel is a hell of a catch. In all my fishing years the biggest I ever caught was about 9lb.
 
0.5* BC Lions -7 -112

Already have some money on the Leos in a parlay but I'm adding a bit to cover the spread. Sask had a chance to keep this close with their defence but now with 4 DL out after last week I don't think they will be able to stop the run or get any pressure as the game wears on. Their secondary is relly good but even the best secondary can only cover a great group of receivers for so long. I think VAj feasts again tonight and the Shea Patterson lead Sask offence won't be able to keep up.
 
@scarf31 I read today that the successful 2pt convert last night gave Winnipeg the season tie-breaker vs Calgary. They only play twice and the stamps won the first meeting by 3. So I think that's the reason OShea went for 2. Clever.
 
ML.........1-1
Spread.6-0
O/U.......6-3
Parley...1-2
Total......14-6 +$268

Hit my over last night, going with 2 ML parleys to make odds more reasonable, BOL everyone. Cheers

BC + Spain 70/189
Edm + Spain 50/162
 
Hulu said:
@scarf31 I read today that the successful 2pt convert last night gave Winnipeg the season tie-breaker vs Calgary. They only play twice and the stamps won the first meeting by 3. So I think that's the reason OShea went for 2. Clever.
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Wow…I didn’t think MO’S had that kind of analytical thought in him.

Color me impressed.
 
Hulu, I am thinking even though VAjr threw for o400yds I thought he had a little hitch in his delivery in the 2nd half maybe a hand problem maybe nothing maybe just me, lol.
 
sjmartin57ca said:
Hulu, I am thinking even though VAjr threw for o400yds I thought he had a little hitch in his delivery in the 2nd half maybe a hand problem maybe nothing maybe just me, lol.
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Hmm interesting. I didn't notice it myself but its worth watching to see if he misses any practice this week.
 
Wow the Elks find yet another way to lose in the final moments. Its really unbelievable how they just find new ways to fuck it up week after week.
 
Hulu said:
Wow the Elks find yet another way to lose in the final moments. Its really unbelievable how they just find new ways to fuck it up week after week.
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What a joke 7 secs left and they kick out of bounds 1 pass 1 FG game over, lol, Bede is longest/strongest kicker in the league just kick as far as you can pen them deep and game over. Time for ownership to relieve Jones of his HC or GM duties or both, also need a new DC, they are never on same page as opposition offense to many wide open receivers, D-line and linebackers are improving but they need a whole new DB core and safeties.
 
sjmartin57ca said:
What a joke 7 secs left and they kick out of bounds 1 pass 1 FG game over, lol, Bede is longest/strongest kicker in the league just kick as far as you can pen them deep and game over. Time for ownership to relieve Jones of his HC or GM duties or both, also need a new DC, they are never on same page as opposition offense to many wide open receivers, D-line and linebackers are improving but they need a whole new DB core and safeties.
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I'm convinced that Jones would already be gone if it weren't for the pending sale of the team.
 
Hulu said:
Nevermind...just came out that he's been fired
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Lol u beat me to it, about time. 2 ex-offensive players in charge should be interesting.



Edmonton Elks

@GoElks

NEWS | General Manager and Head Coach Chris Jones has been relieved of his duties.Assistant General Manager Geroy Simon has been named interim general manager and Jarious Jackson becomes the interim head coach.
 
Hamilton +4.5

Obviously a horrendous defense but they are somewhat OK against the run and that is where TOR does damage. Week off after being torched...one of those games you come with energy and that means banging run fits and hitting hard. Not much they can do vs the pass but TOR has a terrible pass game and unlikely to exploit. HAM is way better than 0-5. They win here.


Calgary +4.5

As great as BC is on offense I don't trust their defense. CGY has been playing very hard and Dickinson making some +EV decisions. Maier one of the biggest turnaround in a while. Not sure they get too many stops but I'll take a good offense that should be able to score at +4.5 every single time as a home dog.

Want to play Edmonton but don't know if I can get there.
 
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JohnnyGambler said:
Hamilton +4.5

Obviously a horrendous defense but they are somewhat OK against the run and that is where TOR does damage. Week off after being torched...one of those games you come with energy and that means banging run fits and hitting hard. Not much they can do vs the pass but TOR has a terrible pass game and unlikely to exploit. HAM is way better than 0-5. They win here.


Calgary +4.5

As great as BC is on offense I don't trust their defense. CGY has been playing very hard and Dickinson making some +EV decisions. Maier one of the biggest turnaround in a while. Not sure they get too many stops but I'll take a good offense that should be able to score at +4.5 every single time as a home dog.

Want to play Edmonton but don't know if I can get there.
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Agree on Hamilton. They've burned me badly twice this season but this is a very good spot for them.
 
6 weeks into the season and here is where totals stand...

14 overs to 10 unders. 58% to the over
Average total: 49.2
Average Score: 54.7 Thats a whopping +5.5pt delta

I've been saying that we're back to pre-pandemic CFL football so lets look at that. I have data going back to 2008.

From 2008-2019 totals were relatively stable and averaged 51.7 while scores averaged 51.4. Then came the missed 2020 season and things took a nose dive in 2021. From 2021-2023 the avg total was 46.3 while the avg score was 47.6

So yeah I think its safe to say what we're seeing right now is more like what we saw in the previous era. In fact its even better. The current avg score of 54.7 is the higher than any season in my dataset. And yet the avg total so far has been 49.2 which would be tied for the lowest of any year in my dataset. So clearly the odds makers have been slow to catch on and I think they still are.
 
1* TOR / HAM over 52.5 -109

Both these teams have a very poor secondarys. 4/5 of Hamiltons games have gone over this number and 4/5 of Toronto's games have also gone over this number. I think it should be more like 56 but the books still aren't adjusting enough to the new offensive reality in the league.
 
1* Winnipeg ML -140

Have to do it. 2 teams headed in opposite directions here. Winnipeg is showing improvement and is getting healthier while Sask is mired with injuries. The Bombers should win this game.
 
Hulu said:
6 weeks into the season and here is where totals stand...

14 overs to 10 unders. 58% to the over
Average total: 49.2
Average Score: 54.7 Thats a whopping +5.5pt delta

I've been saying that we're back to pre-pandemic CFL football so lets look at that. I have data going back to 2008.

From 2008-2019 totals were relatively stable and averaged 51.7 while scores averaged 51.4. Then came the missed 2020 season and things took a nose dive in 2021. From 2021-2023 the avg total was 46.3 while the avg score was 47.6

So yeah I think its safe to say what we're seeing right now is more like what we saw in the previous era. In fact its even better. The current avg score of 54.7 is the higher than any season in my dataset. And yet the avg total so far has been 49.2 which would be tied for the lowest of any year in my dataset. So clearly the odds makers have been slow to catch on and I think they still are.
Click to expand...
Love this info, thanks.
 
Damn its wednesday night and not 1 game has jumped out at me yet, not a side or spread or total, may be a skip weekend, lol.
 
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