CFL Syndicate 2024

sjmartin57ca said:
Weather not expected to be nice in Ottawa tonight, showers right now, turning to heavy rain with thunder & lightning around 6pm est also a tornado watch is in place from 6-10 tonight in Ottawa. I'm a couple hours west of Ottawa(by car) and it is not very nice here our weather is generally the same as Ottawa. Under 46.5 looking enticing.
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Weather change looks like the bad weather is going to end up going south of Ottawa and should have no effect on the game.
 
Ottawa+8.5. I waited long enough. The data supports home dogs early and big home dog lines are 15-5 ats. This qualifies. It appears to me as a close game or no contest. I think in previous seasons Winnipeg looked great and even if Winnipeg was trending strong like those previous seasons the line would be about the same. Well Winnipeg wasn’t great last week. Now what?
 
I get what your saying but I don't trust Ottawa until they prove themselves. First game for Dru Brown and that O-line does not look good. Plus they dont have a RB, which will negate Oliveiras absence. And their defensive leader Bighilll is back for WPG. Even without Lawler Peg still have Shown at WR and Demski at SB on offense. And Collaros can't be as bad as he was in week 1.

I could see WPG winning big or a close game but I do think they win SU
 
spottie2935 said:
Ottawa+8.5. I waited long enough. The data supports home dogs early and big home dog lines are 15-5 ats. This qualifies. It appears to me as a close game or no contest. I think in previous seasons Winnipeg looked great and even if Winnipeg was trending strong like those previous seasons the line would be about the same. Well Winnipeg wasn’t great last week. Now what?
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GL Spottie
 
Hulu said:
After much thought I’m passing on tonight’s game. Too many question marks for me.
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Agree 100% gonna skip this one and just sit on the sidelines. 'Peg offense looked bad last week and with the loss of Oliveira & Lawler I'll wait and see if any improvement, the D was soso last week with addition of Bighill they should be improved. As for Ottawa I am guessing they will be bottom of the barrel again this season have to watch and see if there has been any improvement during the off-season.
 
icemantbi said:
I get what your saying but I don't trust Ottawa until they prove themselves. First game for Dru Brown and that O-line does not look good. Plus they dont have a RB, which will negate Oliveiras absence. And their defensive leader Bighilll is back for WPG. Even without Lawler Peg still have Shown at WR and Demski at SB on offense. And Collaros can't be as bad as he was in week 1.

I could see WPG winning big or a close game but I do think they win SU
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I have high hopes because of data, the line and what I have seen from Winnipeg. I think Winnipeg should win but -8.5 is too many points and their history is terrible in these situations.
 
So far Winnipeg has come back from outer space. Since I have been watching there has always been at least 1 elite team. Sure there is BC but is Montreal elite? I am questioning why they were Champs last season as a dog, and +7 week 1.

I took down my play on Edmonton tonight but I am trying to find a good play for tonight. Most of the data favors the over. 47.5 is too high for me.
 
Tough call tonight. I liked Montreal here based on their week 1 performance against Winnipeg, but after watching Winnipeg I am not so sure if it was mostly Montreal or just that Winnipeg is not good enough with all their missing pieces
On the other hand, I was impressed with the Elks against the Roughies last week. We got lucky with the Riders as the Elks should have won and were the better team. But that Elks defence still has question marks for me and Fajardo could go off on them. Will the Elks be able to contain Philpott? If they can, then they have a chance. If they can't then this could be a MTL blowout. I also have the MTL offense ranked higher than Sask's offence.
Lots to think over in this.
 
icemantbi said:
Tough call tonight. I liked Montreal here based on their week 1 performance against Winnipeg, but after watching Winnipeg I am not so sure if it was mostly Montreal or just that Winnipeg is not good enough with all their missing pieces
On the other hand, I was impressed with the Elks against the Roughies last week. We got lucky with the Riders as the Elks should have won and were the better team. But that Elks defence still has question marks for me and Fajardo could go off on them. Will the Elks be able to contain Philpott? If they can, then they have a chance. If they can't then this could be a MTL blowout. I also have the MTL offense ranked higher than Sask's offence.
Lots to think over in this.
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Same for me. Slight lean to the Elks here but I doubt I'll bet it.

Montreal in a tough spot with 2 road games out west to start the year and then losing Stubblefield, Richards and Snead in week 1 has to have some impact. OTOH they clearly are the class of the league right now so its hard to fade them.
 
I decided to go with the Elks after all. Montreal was +7 last week to a Winnipeg team that doesnt have it so far. Now They are road chalk ? I think thats why the line dropped.

Total gamble coin flip game and I bet dogs.
 
Evening everyone BOL tonight.
Mon/Edm o46.5 50/87
Montreal -2.5 50/81
Montreal ML + Italy(Sat) 50/88

Week 1
ML.........1-0
Spread.3-0
O/U.......1-1
Total......5-1 +$148
 
History has shown that dogs can dominate and some seasons the dogs went 9-3 10-2 ATS. My point is just because it’s a lot of dogs do far there is more room for this trend to continue. Not saying it will but don’t be shocked. It has a history for dogs to dominate.
 
Away Dogs since 2007. Over 54% winning percentage. Home dogs 50%.

The books will get a sharper eye on the teams and home field doesn’t mean much. My keen eye will be taking the dog against weak teams that struggle to score. When Winnipeg is a dog I will have to resist that temptation.
 
1* Saskatchewan -1 -106

The more I look at this one the more I think Sask wins. Hamilton's defense is a mess. The DL is decent but the back 8 are nothing special. They made Jake Maier look like a superhero last week and I think they'll do the same for Trevor Harris here. Cats OL has 2 new tackles in the lineup this week and that is never a good situation. BLM should be under heat all game. I hate to bet against my team but this one looks clear to me.
 
Hulu said:
I lean this way as well. Both defenses are suspect and both offenses can put up points
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This is my theory exactly.
Hula, I finally finished watching last weeks games this morning, have watched all 3 so far this weekend so my crash course is over and I can contribute a little more, Hoping to keep my streak alive was +$ in 22 & 23 in CFL.
 
sjmartin57ca said:
Saskatchewan/Hamilton o49.5 50/94
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This right here was the play. Seems so easy in hindsight.

And there were no pick-sixes or special teams scores or any funny business. It was all offence. 810 yards in total.

So now we have a rematch this week and the total is only up a point to 50.5. Nothing has really changed. Same capable offences vs porous defences. Barring bad weather, I could see these 2 putting up 55+ again.
 
Some random thoughts after week 2...

Sask has now won 2 games in a row where their opponent basically handed them the game in the 4Q. I have lowered them in my power rankings after each game because, despite getting the wins, they really aren't as buttoned up as I thought they would be. How can they not be overvalued right now?

Winnipeg is really beat up. I want to see how their roster shapes up this week because if its as bad as it looks right now, they probably shouldn't be favoured vs BC.
 
Hulu said:
Some random thoughts after week 2...

Sask has now won 2 games in a row where their opponent basically handed them the game in the 4Q. I have lowered them in my power rankings after each game because, despite getting the wins, they really aren't as buttoned up as I thought they would be. How can they not be overvalued right now?

Winnipeg is really beat up. I want to see how their roster shapes up this week because if its as bad as it looks right now, they probably shouldn't be favoured vs BC.
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Good stuff.

Should see some value in the Sask opponents soon enough.
 
Right on HULU!!!

According to the data the Ti Cats are my best bet this week. Hamilton is at Ottawa next week so them to be more than +3 I can’t envision.

Any CFL away dog hits at a 54% rate. Add to that, if the following week they are away again and next weeks line they will be a small dog of <3 or a favorite. Here>>>>>>>

The 2nd photo I narrowed to query using the current week line of <=4

36-9 ATS
 

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I think I will be on Hamilton as well but I am going to wait it out to see if we get a 3.

One thing I've noticed about Sask is that in the past year or two, the line always seems to drift their way on game day. They have easily the largest fan base in the league and I think there is a lot of public money betting sask on game day week in and week out.
 
Look at these passing stats through 2 weeks. Usually at this time of year defences are ahead of offences but not this season. 70% completions is the norm, they are averaging about 300 yards/game with a 27:13 TD:INT ratio.

Beyond Montreal, where are the elite defences? There are none and QBs are having their way right now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803198205271928983
 
You’re right to search this, because the QB’s are mostly the same. It seems to be more parody. Saskatchewan has 2 4th Q comebacks. Favorites cover because they hold their opponents output.

Have you tracked your last 3 minutes over ? It seems that might be highly successful this season.

I don’t think the CFL could with stand another defense dominated season. Scoring is up in many sports leagues. The league can’t fall behind.
 
spottie2935 said:
You’re right to search this, because the QB’s are mostly the same. It seems to be more parody. Saskatchewan has 2 4th Q comebacks. Favorites cover because they hold their opponents output.

Have you tracked your last 3 minutes over ? It seems that might be highly successful this season.

I don’t think the CFL could with stand another defense dominated season. Scoring is up in many sports leagues. The league can’t fall behind.
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I haven't tracked it this year unfortunately. Maybe I should start this week. I watch all the games so why not.
 
Thoughts for week 3

OTT/MTL
Everyone is licking Ottawa's balls this week because they beat Winnipeg but colour me unimpressed. Winnipeg is a mess right now and they lost 3 defensive players in game. They only had 4 defensive linemen left for the entire 2H and they had no rest. And the redblacks still barely beat them. Dru Brown looked marginally better than he did in preseason but overall he looked very raw. Staring down receivers instead of moving through his reads regularly. Against Montreals defence, he will get eaten alive. Montreal is superior to Winnipeg in every facet right now and it will show against an inferior Ottawa team. They're better than last year but they're not up to playing with the ALs at home. Montreal gets back Dylan Wynn on the DL and he is a force. The RBs offensive line will be outmatched. Theres a big crowd coming and they are raising the Grey cup banner. I make the ALs 9.5pt favs and anything under a TD is a bet for me. I think Montreal wins this one by double digits.
Lean Montreal -6.5

BC/WPG
I thought about betting BC here but I am not so eager anymore. First off, they are on a short week with travel while WInnipeg is on an 8 day week at home. Second, they will be without Cottoy who is a key cog in their receiving corps. They do get back Patrice Rene in the secondary. But most of all BC just hasn't passed the eye test for me. VAj has looked good but not great, their receiving group is average, their OL is bottom 3 and their defence looks to have regressed from LY. Winnipeg is still in injury hell but its not as bad as it looked a few days ago. Still without Kenny Lawler, they now list only DB Nichols and RB Olivera as questionable. I still lean to BC here but I can also see a scenario where the Bombers, backs against the wall at 0-2, play like a desperate team at home.
Lean BC +2 - would probably bet at +3

EDM/TOR
My numbers put this line right where it is at TOR -6. But how much do we know about Toronto? They beat up on a BC team in what was a total mismatch of Toronto's dominant DL and BC's porous OL. Cameron Dukes looked very good in his one game but I think its more likely than not he regresses a bit here. One thing he didn't do was push the ball downfield at all and now thats on film for the Elks to plan for. I think Edmonton is a better match as they have a better OL than BC and MBT is generally able to get the ball out quickly vs the pressure. Edmonton is still making too many mistakes but they've definitely made progress since LY and I think they can hang here.
Lean EDM +6

HAM/SSK
I tend to always like the losing team in the rubber match and I especially do here. I have these teams rated equally and Hamilton was the dominant team last week until they pissed away the game in the fourth quarter. Sask is way overvalued right now for being 2-0 when they basically luck-boxed their way into that record. In both games they were down double digits in the 4Q and had their opponents turn the ball over to enable the comeback. My prediction is that this line will gradually move toward sask and I think we can get a +3 on game day. Its not advisable to bet a +2.5 early in the week due to the uneven risk of a line movement. If it goes to +2 you haven't lost much but it if goes to +3 you've gained a whole lot.
Lean HAM +2.5 and will bet as soon as it hits +3
 
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