CFL Syndicate 2023

@Hulu Do You Think The Late Action Has To Do With Toronto's 1st Game And Hamilton Already Has A Game Under Their Belt?! Ya Know? Like Rust Factor?
 
Vapster said:
@Hulu Do You Think The Late Action Has To Do With Toronto's 1st Game And Hamilton Already Has A Game Under Their Belt?! Ya Know? Like Rust Factor?
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Maybe.
Maybe it’s fading chad Kelly in his first meaningful start against a proven vet

There’s also been a lot made of Bo’s great career record vs Toronto. But most of that was when he was with a great stamps team and the Argos were shit so I do t think it means anything.
 
Results after week 2...

Sides 5-4 +3.205*
Totals 0-2 -2.20*
Props 2-1 +0.475*
Parlays 1-0 +1.00*
Live 0-1 -0.575*

Overall 8-8 +1.905*

5-2 in week 2 for 3.83*.

Time to prep for week 3. Lines should drop tomorrow morning. I have a couple situations I'm scoping.
 
Hulu said:
Results after week 2...

Sides 5-4 +3.205*
Totals 0-2 -2.20*
Props 2-1 +0.475*
Parlays 1-0 +1.00*
Live 0-1 -0.575*

Overall 8-8 +1.905*

5-2 in week 2 for 3.83*.

Time to prep for week 3. Lines should drop tomorrow morning. I have a couple situations I'm scoping.
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Solid week.
 
Will be interesting to see if they put up a number on MTL/HAM at open. No news yet on BLM's injury but it looked like a groin and those can be tough to recover from in season. Cats have a short, 5 day week. If I was a betting man, I'd say Shiltz will be starting.

So how big is the drop-off from Mitchell to Shiltz? Matty is no slouch and went 2-1 starting last year. And it should be noted that with the same personnel that Bo had, he went 13/14 for 115yds and a TD last night in the 4Q. Granted it was all underneath stuff against an Argos defence rushing 3 and dropping into coverage.

Bo has been making bad decisions and missing receivers. At this point, I'm not so sure Shiltz is a downgrade at all.
 
1* Saskatchewan +4.5 -110

I made this 2.5 so give me the other side of the 3 please. I only have Calgary rated a half point higher than sask and their HFA isn't what it once was. Calgary beat up on a bad Ottawa team LW so they're a little overvalued here.

 
1* Montreal +3.5 -110

Regardless of who starts at QB for Hamilton, they are coming off a 5 day week vs a team off a bye which is never a good situation. Montreal's defence is better than I expected and I think this will be a close game, FG either way.
 
It shows how little effort the books put into making CFL lines. Hamilton's veteran QB is possibly out? No worries we'll just throw something up anyway.
 
Hulu said:
1* Montreal +3.5 -110

Regardless of who starts at QB for Hamilton, they are coming off a 5 day week vs a team off a bye which is never a good situation. Montreal's defence is better than I expected and I think this will be a close game, FG either way.
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Line is disappearing. I like this one so I'm going bigger...

1.5*/.5* Montreal +3.5/ML -113/+125
 
What are you thinking Thursday?

Big number for the bombers vs what looks like their biggest competition

If no rhymes the offense will stall imo, that is biggest change from rourke, VAJ can just look lost after the first few scripted drives, usually gets it back by 4th, cant do that without rhymes

Most interested in lions d vs bombers o, have they just looked good because of playing the Alberta teams, but 270 yards against passing through 8 quarters is impressive, if they can keep collaros anywhere under 260 they are happy, schoen and demski look great early too.
 
guaranteeed said:
What are you thinking Thursday?

Big number for the bombers vs what looks like their biggest competition

If no rhymes the offense will stall imo, that is biggest change from rourke, VAJ can just look lost after the first few scripted drives, usually gets it back by 4th, cant do that without rhymes

Most interested in lions d vs bombers o, have they just looked good because of playing the Alberta teams, but 270 yards against passing through 8 quarters is impressive, if they can keep collaros anywhere under 260 they are happy, schoen and demski look great early too.
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I think the line is about right. I made it 4.5. Even with a couple extra points its hard to go against the Bombers at home where they have been over 70% ATS since 2018.

I agree that no Rhymes will hurt. Whitehead is not the same type of receiver.

The Lions D is for real IMO. Solid DL and LB and the secondary might be the best in the league. Theres really not a weak spot there. Can they hold Collaros? We'll see. I just can't get a feel for this game otherwise.
 
guaranteeed said:
Weird how bad its looked
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Even weirder is that the line went from Ham -1.5 to -2.5 on the news. I would have thought the opposite but with how bad Bo has played and Shiltz coming in and going 13/14 LW, I guess some people think the cats will be better without Bo.
 
1* TOR / EDM under 44.5 -110

Gotta take a stab at the under here. Edmonton has been so offensively challenged its hard to see them putting up more than 17 points and even that would be their highest output of the year. Toronto has a really good defence that shouldn't let them have anything easy. On the other side, Chad Kelly had a good first start but not a great one. He made some good decisions and good throws but he is still a work in progress and this will be a tougher defensive test than Hamilton was. I expect them to be a little run heavy in Kelly's first road start. I'm seeing a 23-15 type game here.
 
its 49.5 and I am waiting for it to move to 50

under BC / WPG. SDQL supports it and BC is good enough. VAJ isnt going to throw all over.
 
After a W MTL is 10-27 SU Away, and 1-7 if the line is <3

They dont have a strong history away from home and I feel like i can take advantage of this short line.

I have very little motivation to take Montreal on a short line when they only have played Ottawa. IMO Hamiltons 2 bad games adds to the line value.

Montreal had 22 rushes for 63 yards, gave up 6 sacks for over 60 yards in losses.

Completed 14 passes but those came on big yards 260 in total. had 8 punts too.

I didnt see the game but on paper it looks like they got some big plays and if the big plays werent there it wasnt easy. Only scoring 19 points.

I just have a hunch on Hamilton after 2 losses to open the season
 
Sask before 2017 was a terrible team

I am fading Calgary home data of failing to cover as home favorites (3-18 ATS last 21 tries)
 
Look ahead to week 4 looking for +EV lines based upon the next opponent.

Edmonton @ Ottawa. Edmonton surely wont be favorites next week unless they win this game at home this week.



=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=

Winnipeg @ Montreal. The query for the look ahead is this. AD and next HD and their opponent this week has lost more that 1 in a row. why is a team losing 2 in a row a favorite to a team that will be home dogs the next week? That data results confirm team in Montreal position are.... 10-24 ATS.
 
BC @ Toronto

I have a few things to consider about BC next week. So step by step is the SDQL for this weeks decision.

Looking at BC this week:

Away dogs that will be Away favorites next week 47-12 ATS

Away dogs that will have a line >=-3 and line<3 next week. This is most likely a line of +3 to -3 next week and dogs in the current week with this situation on deck are 39-11 ATS

So the data supports the dog and under in this game
 
spottie2935 said:
its 49.5 and I am waiting for it to move to 50

under BC / WPG. SDQL supports it and BC is good enough. VAJ isnt going to throw all over.
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I agree with you. I had leaned over initially but I think the under is the way to go here. In a heavyweight fight like this, the teams often come out conservative not wanting to make a mistake. BC's defence might be the best in the league so if they can't hold COllaros and co, nobody can.

And like you said...VAj is not going to go off for a 35 point game. If BC can stay close, it will be because of defence keeping them in it
 
spottie2935 said:
injury update in Winnipeg?
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Looks like both teams are fairly healthy.

For BC, Rhymes is out but Lucky Whitehead is coming back so maybe only a small downgrade there.

For Winnipeg, CB Demario Houston is out and will be replaced by a rookie. That could be a concern. RB Brady Olivera is a game time decision but they have a qualoity back behind him in Johnny Augustine so not a big deal.
 
spottie2935 said:
After a W MTL is 10-27 SU Away, and 1-7 if the line is <3

They dont have a strong history away from home and I feel like i can take advantage of this short line.

I have very little motivation to take Montreal on a short line when they only have played Ottawa. IMO Hamiltons 2 bad games adds to the line value.

Montreal had 22 rushes for 63 yards, gave up 6 sacks for over 60 yards in losses.

Completed 14 passes but those came on big yards 260 in total. had 8 punts too.

I didnt see the game but on paper it looks like they got some big plays and if the big plays werent there it wasnt easy. Only scoring 19 points.

I just have a hunch on Hamilton after 2 losses to open the season
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I agree with your hunch and I was looking to back Hamilton in this spot as well after facing 2 tough opponents on the road. But they are also in major injury trouble with 3 starting offensive linemen out. Theyve been so thin there that the last 2 games theyve had to sub in a DT to play Guard which is definitely not ideal. They will be pulling guys off the practice roster to start this game potentially.

Bo is out as well although Matt Shiltz is a capable backup. He's not a big play guy but he may be mobile enough to negate some of the offensive line's problems. I think the under or Hamilton TT under might be a good bet here.

I took MTL +3.5 at open thinking I could buy back if the cats became dogs once it became known that Shiltz would be starting. But the line has stubbornly stayed at 2.5 so I'll probably stand pat. Hamilton can win this game but I doubt they get much margin. This looks like a FG game to me
 
My best looking selections are:

under 49.5 BC/WPG
Sask +3.5

BC +6 is to be considered but for mental stability reasons I will let that play stay in a rat hole.
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
My best looking selections are:

under 49.5 BC/WPG
Sask +3.5

BC +6 is to be considered but for mental stability reasons I will let that play stay in a rat hole.
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I too think the BC/WPG number will hit 50 sometime today. The public loves an over and WPG has put up 40 twice in a row now.
 
1* MTL / HAM under 44.5 -110

These teams have gone under this number 3 of their last 4 and I do t see points coming easily in this one either.
 
spottie2935 said:
My best looking selections are:

under 49.5 BC/WPG
Sask +3.5

BC +6 is to be considered but for mental stability reasons I will let that play stay in a rat hole.
Click to expand...


Have to add Hamilton -140 to this list. they maybe injured but MTL is away and Hamilton should be hungry and its not like MTL has been any good. Montreal has to win on this short line.

Montreal since and not including 2017 has been away 36 times only 8 of those 36 games have the won the game by 7 or more. I am not into teasers but this looks +EV for teasers and in game plays if the situation shows itself.
 
Hulu said:
1* MTL / HAM under 44.5 -110

These teams have gone under this number 3 of their last 4 and I do t see points coming easily in this one either.
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Away: Montreal has a big edge if they can score 20+ points. They are 42-16 ATS when they do. If they dont score 20 or more... 9-27 ATS. tohe overs are also 9-27 when the dont score 20. They didnt score much against Ottawa and only scored as much because of big plays. If the are limited to under 20 completions under and home team are rock solid.

from the data its stronger to play Hamilton and under combined, than it is to play a dog and over in this case.
 
Sask when @ Calgary since and not including 2016 are 3-4 straight up and 2 of those were big upsets of 9 and 10 points. 4-3 ATS

Sask does lousy at home against the Stamps at 2-5 ATS

If the Riders are off a loss and away in Calgary only 4 times this happened and they are 3-1 SU. Before 2016 was when Calgary was the league best and the data was very bad. Calgary is not covering at home anymore.

Calgary is not profitable unless they score 33+points. If they dont get 33 or more, they are 20-54 ATS and if they dont get 28 points they are 10-43 ATS.

If they get 33+ they are 43-14 ATS

between 27 and 32 points 8-10 ats so the key numbers are 28 and 33 in between its kinda 50-50. With Meier in they might need some turnover and special teams to get above these numbers.
 
Toronto as away chalk since and including 2007 only 26 occurrences.

Argos did well last season as away chalk and part of that is because the lack of skill on the bottom teams.

No different here as Edmonton is really terrible.

Argos need 28+ points to be profitable 2-10 if they dont score 28 but in this case I am not sure about this type of data.

Dog teams off a shutout do okay at 4-3 ATS but away from home are 2-0 ATS so being home dogs isnt the best.

Elks are just off the map and home nothing good either 3-16 SU since 2014.

I did bet the ELKS in a parlay but that game is sunday and i will hedge out if need be. I would like to see the Elks get crushed again.

I wouldnt say the Elks were as bad as the 2018 and 2019 Argos teams. The Argos lost their opener in 2019 14-64. Making all those turnovers. I will never forget that,

We all know the Elks are who they are.


If I had more time early in the week and knowing what i just typed no way I would have included them in my parlay.


I just know scoring 0 points the previous week is good situation, but after digging that good situation is best in away games. Bad teams need more points and away games provides that opportunity.
 
Recap of my bets going into week 3...

Fri
1.5*/.5* Montreal +3.5/ML -113/+125
1* MTL / HAM under 44.5 -110

Sat
1* Saskatchewan +4.5 -110

Sun
1* TOR / EDM under 44.5 -110
 
0.5* Winnipeg +7.5 -120

I'm gambling now. This just seems like a crazy number though. They're at home and only down 11
 
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