CFL Syndicate 2023

First play 'o' the year...

0.5* Edmonton -1.5 -105

Aside from the fact that home teams in the first full preseason week are 16-7-1 SU since 2016, I think the Elks have a couple things going for them here. This is their second game after facing Calgary on Monday which should give them a leg up on the Bombers who have yet to play other than an intra-squad scrimmage. Normally I wouldn't like a team on a short week but in preseason it hardly matters since players see so little time on the field.

Both starter Taylor Cornelius as well as second year man Tre Ford will see significant snaps. After that we will likely see a return of Jarrett Doege who lit things up last week vs the stamps. Meanwhile in bomberland Collaros isn't likely to even make the trip leaving the starting duties up to Dru Brown with time for rookies Josh Jones and Tyrell Pigrome.

O'Shea doesn't care about preseason and I think the Elkies take this game a little more seriously in front of their home fans.
 
Hamilton has lost WR Anthony Johnson to a serious knee injury. He might be gone for the season.

Johnson was with the team last year and showed promise as a tall, rangy receiver in limited action. He figured to play a more prominent role in the offence this year.
 
Id like to see the Ticats as a dog as many times as they can this season. Maybe a few early looses can make this happen. I could be wrong but the East hasnt been strong from top to bottom so making the playoffs is still possible for slow starting teams.

I will attempt to stay away from Elite (BC, Calgary) too many times these will be favorites. These will be elite dogs though.



Here is a query for a team that is off 2 straight dog losses and now a dog again before week 7 and has less than 3 wins

20-9 (2.6,69.0%) ATS

under valued dog slow starters are $



p:DL and pp:DL and D and t:wins<3 and line<10 and season>2014

2 straight dog losses now a dog again and this dog has not won 3 games since 2014 the line <10 usually more than 10 there is a big time QB issue
 
week =1, and dog, and next line will be less than +4 points, this line less than 10 points

week=1 and D and line<10 and n: line<4

34-8 ATS 81%
 
spottie2935 said:
Id like to see the Ticats as a dog as many times as they can this season. Maybe a few early looses can make this happen. I could be wrong but the East hasnt been strong from top to bottom so making the playoffs is still possible for slow starting teams.

I will attempt to stay away from Elite (BC, Calgary) too many times these will be favorites. These will be elite dogs though.



Here is a query for a team that is off 2 straight dog losses and now a dog again before week 7 and has less than 3 wins

20-9 (2.6,69.0%) ATS

under valued dog slow starters are $



p:DL and pp:DL and D and t:wins<3 and line<10 and season>2014

2 straight dog losses now a dog again and this dog has not won 3 games since 2014 the line <10 usually more than 10 there is a big time QB issue
Click to expand...
The cats will have to lose a few to be dogged much. They are the second highest season win total after the bombers so the market is expecting a lot of wins from them this year. They do have a tough start to the year travelling to visit both Winnipeg and Toronto in the first 2 weeks so a slow start is a possibility.
 
For preseason week 2...

0.5* Toronto -3.5 -110

Argos are starting a veteran laiden lineup and Chad Kelly is starting and will likely get most of the first half. Ottawa OTOH has almost no starters on the menu. Last years 3rd stringer Tyree Adams getting the start and has 2 scrubs behind him.
 
One player future as well. This is from Fanduel...

0.5* Prop James Butler under 945.5 rush yards -112

Butler had a great year with BC in 2022 but is unlikely to rush this much with his new team in Hamilton. Orlondo Steinauer has always favored a running back by committee approach rather than having one bell cow back and the cats haven't had anyone rush over a thousand yards for some years. Newcomer Tayon Fleet-Davis has been the front-runner in camp to backup Butler but whomever it is will get their share of carries. Also, the cats have Sean Thomas-Erlington as a NAT back on the roster and Steinauer has never hesitated to start STE if they need to adjust the ratio due to injury elsewhere. I think this number is way too high.
 
Vapster said:
@Hulu

Good Evening Sir!

Your Favorite (s) Books To Use For CFL?
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Thats a work in progress. My go to last year was 5dimes because they had early lines and let me get more than a dime down. But now they're shutting down and may or may not be back.

So I am left with betcris, betonline, 365 and fanduel. I suspect cris and FD will have the earliest lines so they will likely be my go to this year.

Betonline limits are too low for me and 365 opens a day or two late when the line is a lot tighter.

Fanduel has a reputation for severely limiting winners so I've been working on my "profile" there for a few months. Only playing favs and overs in the hopes that they profile me as a square and leave me alone. So far I'm down 2 dimes there so the plan is working LOL We'll see if I can make it through the season
 
Hulu said:
Hamilton has lost WR Anthony Johnson to a serious knee injury. He might be gone for the season.

Johnson was with the team last year and showed promise as a tall, rangy receiver in limited action. He figured to play a more prominent role in the offence this year.
Click to expand...

Hamilton also just lost promising newcomer Justin Mcgriff for the season.

Suddenly they are thin at receiver. They’d better hope the Duke Williams reclamation project works or they’ll be in some trouble.
 
Ok preseason is over...what did we learn? From west to east

BC has 2 capable QBs which is really important. Neither is a top 3 guy but together they may be able to surpass the sum of their parts. I wouldn't be surprised to see Evans starting by year end. Could be a major over theam this season

Edmonton is a team on the come. It might take a bit but their defence should be vastly improved over last year and with a full offseason knowing who their starter is they have a chance to gameplan around him. The OL is young but shows talent and should get better as the year goes on. Huge question mark at pk where they will go with 36 year old rookie Ian Faithfull who has looked good in camp but shaky as hell in actual game situations. They also have Michael Domegala on the roster if Faithfull falters.

Calgary is still good although they lost some defensive pieces. Maier is now the man so how does he handle the pressure of being #1? Does he excel or stutter like Dane Evans last year? He didn't impress in the few preseason drives he got. They are a little talent strapped at receiver which doesn't help but have the best run game in the league.

Saskatchewan still has a major OL problem. They will start the year with a rotating cast trying to find which group works best and who will play the all important LT position. Fortunately they have the perfect QB for that situation in Trevor Harris. He has the ability to read pre-snap and get the ball out quick. Defense looks avg and secondary is a concern.

Winnipeg may have something in rookie QB Pigrome but that will be for another year. Right now they atre still the class of the league although their stellar OL is aging and they will start the year without WR1 Kenny Lawler. Their DL did not impress in preseason but will probably be fine as they have been in the past. They patched their biggest hole this offseason by signing kicker Sergio Castillo

Hamilton is all-in to win this year with the cup at home. Bo Levi Mitchell looked the part in limited preseason action but hasn't done much in several years so its a big question mark as to whether this reclamation project will work. Speaking of guys who haven't done much in years, they also signed Duke WIlliams who has never looked the same since his NFL stint ended. They lost 2 promising young receivers for the season in camp so they will have some rookies dressing. The front seven is as stacked as any team in the league but the secondary will be starting at least 1 rookie and lacks depth. Could be an over team this season

Toronto is great across the board but Chad Kelly is the big question mark. He looked fantastic for about 10 plays in the grey cup but in the one reg season start he got in a mean-nothing game at seasons end, he looked average. This preseason he looked calm amd collected and made confident throws in limited action. I think he will be fine but may face some adversity as a first time starter.

Ottawa may be in some trouble if Masoli is not ready to start the season and its looking more and more like he won't. He has been practicing so they may be thinking of bringing him back in week 3 after a week 2 bye but we'll see. Without him, this team is going nowhere. Their OL should be improved this year and they have a sneaky good receiving corps although theyve lost Shaq Evans to a broken finger. The whole defense looks pedestrian and secondary is a concern especially after they lost Money Hunter for the season.

Montreal is my pick to finish last and I am not convinced this Mass/Fajardo pairing is any good together. The OL is average, no clear #1 receiver and the defense looks ordinary.
 
Totals wise I am expecting an up year. Reg season scores generally trend the same way as preseason was the 2nd highest scoring since 2014 (the year the 9th team came onboard).

I think in year 2 since the rules were changed to increase scoring, we will see more teams taking advantage of them. You saw it toward the end of 2022 and I am seeing it this preseason. I think this is the first year the league is really back on its feet since covid nearly killed it and the continuity that that breeds is only going to help the offences.

Based on all that, I am setting my baseline total at 51.5 which is 2 points higher than I set it LY and a point above where actual scoring finished. I may have more overs than unders this year.
 
Hulu said:
One player future as well. This is from Fanduel...

0.5* Prop James Butler under 945.5 rush yards -112

Butler had a great year with BC in 2022 but is unlikely to rush this much with his new team in Hamilton. Orlondo Steinauer has always favored a running back by committee approach rather than having one bell cow back and the cats haven't had anyone rush over a thousand yards for some years. Newcomer Tayon Fleet-Davis has been the front-runner in camp to backup Butler but whomever it is will get their share of carries. Also, the cats have Sean Thomas-Erlington as a NAT back on the roster and Steinauer has never hesitated to start STE if they need to adjust the ratio due to injury elsewhere. I think this number is way too high.
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This is down to 899.5 now but I still think it has value. I think the right number is somewhere around 750.
 
Week 1 lines have dropped...

BC@CAL -3.5 46.5
HAM@WPG -4.5 47.5
OTT@MTL -1.5 45.5
SSK@EDM +2.5 45.5

Plays up in a few mins.
 
These totals are crazy low. I get that CFL seasons usually start under but they should be around the 49 range IMO not 46.
 
1* BC / CAL over 46.5 -110

All the opening week totals are low but this is my fav to go over. This is a matchup of the first and third highest scoring teams from last season and they have a lot of continuity on the offensive side of the ball. Both of these teams are capable of putting up 30. Jake Maier didn't get a lot of work in preseason but I am banking on him continuing his fine form from LY and all Vernon Adams jr did was go 12/12 for 2TDs in his preseason outing. I think these guys are in form and ready to go.

Also, as I said earlier, I am expecting totals to go up this season and continue the upward trend from last season. This is year 2 since the rule changes and I think the OC's are going to find new ways to open things up. You could see it happening in preseason and it led to the second highest scoring preseason in recent history.

I made this total 52.
 
I will over simply the CFL and yet this is some what difficult to predict on a game to game basis. But the overall picture to betting CFL is this.

Away dogs that score 23+ points in the game are 342-82-3 ATS! That makes BC valuable.
In 2022 scoring was down that is partly why the dogs were not profitable last year. Away teams must score to keep it close if they do its cash money.


I like the dogs in which should be an exciting opening week. CFL has been boring but this should change.

Lions+
Ticats +
Redblacks+
Elkskimos +

Should be able to 2-2 or 3-1
At least 2 overs
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
what site has such early lines?

I will be lucky to get down on gameday lol
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Fanduel has put them up first of all the books I use. I wish it was like a few years ago when one book would open monday or tuesday and the rest would quickly follow. Now the market is all distorted.
 
spottie2935 said:
I will over simply the CFL and yet this is some what difficult to predict on a game to game basis. But the overall picture to betting CFL is this.

Away dogs that score 23+ points in the game are 342-82-3 ATS! That makes BC valuable.
In 2022 scoring was down that is partly why the dogs were not profitable last year. Away teams must score to keep it close if they do its cash money.


I like the dogs in which should be an exciting opening week. CFL has been boring but this should change.

Lions+
Ticats +
Redblacks+
Elkskimos +

Should be able to 2-2 or 3-1
At least 2 overs
Click to expand...
Agree on all but Ottawa. We still don't know who their starting qb will be and it its Arbuckle, I might be on Montreal in that game.

Lions Cats and Elks all have dog value IMO.
 
1* Edmonton +2.5 -115

Was hoping this might go to 3 but I see money coming the other way as it moved to -115 so getting on it now.

As I said earlier, Edmonton is a team with an up arrow next to it. Chris Jones, as unorthodox as his style is, is a good coach and his treatment of 2022 as an extended preseason I think has paid off in him finding some gems that will help get this team to the next level in year 2. Taylor Cornelius is a decent QB that should start to see the field better in his first full season as starter and his mobility and speed will help him through the early days. They found an outstanding young receiver in Mitchell and signed Geno Lewis to add a solid #1. The OL which looked so bad LY actually looked decent in preseason albeit against varying levels of competition. Defensively, they line has improved and J-Min Pelley could be a breakout star at DT. And they added ace pass rusher AC Leonard in the offseason. The secondary could be a concern but we'll have to see on that.

Give me the much-improved home dog who is sick of hearing how they have lost 17 straight at home, against a rider team who has not really improved that much and is busy crowing about 2 preseason wins. I think the Elks take it SU
 
The more I look at Sask, the more I think they are going to struggle early in the year.

New OC with a new system. New QB in Trevor Harris. So not a lot of continuity. New OC was the running backs coach and has promised a more run-heavy approach which is a big change.

The OL is a mess. Even in the final days of camp they are still trying out different lineups. HC Dikenson made a comment about the line being a work in progress and they would be bringing in some guys early in the year to see what works. Thats really not a good sign.

And their receiving corps...Derel Walker as your #1? He was a #1 five years ago but hasn't done much since. Kienen Shaeffer-Baker is a stud but is also out for the first few weeks. Shawn Bane jr, Sam Emilus, Braden Lenius, Juwan Brescasin, Tevin Jones...I don't see a true #1 in there and its not a group that should scare anyone.

This could be an good under team this year once totals rise
 
According to gimmethedog, Home Dogs in week 1 are 14-3 ATS since 2007. Good for Edmonton
 
Hulu said:
1* BC Lions +3.5 -110

1* Montreal -1.5

Thoughts on both later
Click to expand...

This is one of those tough weeks where I see value in almost every side and total. So I have a choice to go big or pick the best but when they all look equally good its tough. But if you are gonna go big, the first few weeks of the season are the time to do it. Maybe I'm a bit trigger happy after a long offseason, who knows.

BC +3.5 - I have this team rated a half point better than Calgary and even if you give the stamps 2.5 pts for HFA, that still only gets us to 2 so give me the other side of the 3 in that situation. Furthermore, I am taking a bet on Vernon Adams jr to take the next step to an elite level qb. I've watched his career from the start and the difference in his attitude and demeanour is stark. Gone are the cocky, brash pronouncements, replaced by a mature level-headed leader. I think he has really taken on the leadership mantle and it shows. He stepped into a tough situation last year having to take over from Nathan Rourke after being traded and with a year under his belt in this offense, I think he only gets better. He had 3 series' in the preseason and he went 12/12 for 3 TDs. Meanwhile, I don't think the same of Jake Maier. While he looked steady and even really good at times, he started to show some cracks as the season wore on and it became clear it was his team. We might be seeing another Dane Evans situation here where he is great coming off the bench but once the pressure of carrying a team rests on him, he falters. He absolutely shat the bed in the west semi last season and this year in limited preseason play he threw 1 completion for 6 yards and didn't look like anything special at all. Calgary may have revenge from the west semi LY but I think that may help get them the win, not the cover in a game that should be tit for tat. Also on the over 46.5 because I think either of these teams can score 30 and it wouldn't surprise me to see both do it.

Montreal -1.5 - This is a bit of a flyer but I think its warranted. Ottawa will be better this year but has some immediate trouble as its starting to look like Jeremiah Masoli will not be ready to start the season. Nothing official yet but on the radio yesterday new HC Bob Dyce sounded less than optimistic to me. I know they don't want to rush him back and while he has been practising through the second week of camp, I think it would make more sense to rest him until after their week 2 bye. So this is a fade of Ottawa if Masoli doesn't play. I don't expect Montreal to be very good this year but they always play Ottawa tough and I expect them to win this game. Cody Fajardo looked decent in the preseason and seems to be motivated to prove all his doubters wrong. Sometimes bad teams just don't realize that they are bad to begin the season and are still giving all-in effort. I think this one goes to the home team.
 
Results after Preseason...

Sides 0-2 -1.075*

Overall 0-2 -1.075*


Week 1 Recap...
1* BC / CAL over 46.5 -110
1* Edmonton +2.5 -115
1* BC Lions +3.5 -110
1* Montreal -1.5 -110
 
Last edited:
Hulu said:
This is one of those tough weeks where I see value in almost every side and total. So I have a choice to go big or pick the best but when they all look equally good its tough. But if you are gonna go big, the first few weeks of the season are the time to do it. Maybe I'm a bit trigger happy after a long offseason, who knows.

BC +3.5 - I have this team rated a half point better than Calgary and even if you give the stamps 2.5 pts for HFA, that still only gets us to 2 so give me the other side of the 3 in that situation. Furthermore, I am taking a bet on Vernon Adams jr to take the next step to an elite level qb. I've watched his career from the start and the difference in his attitude and demeanour is stark. Gone are the cocky, brash pronouncements, replaced by a mature level-headed leader. I think he has really taken on the leadership mantle and it shows. He stepped into a tough situation last year having to take over from Nathan Rourke after being traded and with a year under his belt in this offense, I think he only gets better. He had 3 series' in the preseason and he went 12/12 for 3 TDs. Meanwhile, I don't think the same of Jake Maier. While he looked steady and even really good at times, he started to show some cracks as the season wore on and it became clear it was his team. We might be seeing another Dane Evans situation here where he is great coming off the bench but once the pressure of carrying a team rests on him, he falters. He absolutely shat the bed in the west semi last season and this year in limited preseason play he threw 1 completion for 6 yards and didn't look like anything special at all. Calgary may have revenge from the west semi LY but I think that may help get them the win, not the cover in a game that should be tit for tat. Also on the over 46.5 because I think either of these teams can score 30 and it wouldn't surprise me to see both do it.

Montreal -1.5 - This is a bit of a flyer but I think its warranted. Ottawa will be better this year but has some immediate trouble as its starting to look like Jeremiah Masoli will not be ready to start the season. Nothing official yet but on the radio yesterday new HC Bob Dyce sounded less than optimistic to me. I know they don't want to rush him back and while he has been practising through the second week of camp, I think it would make more sense to rest him until after their week 2 bye. So this is a fade of Ottawa if Masoli doesn't play. I don't expect Montreal to be very good this year but they always play Ottawa tough and I expect them to win this game. Cody Fajardo looked decent in the preseason and seems to be motivated to prove all his doubters wrong. Sometimes bad teams just don't realize that they are bad to begin the season and are still giving all-in effort. I think this one goes to the home team.
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I've been behind on catching up so far this year but the VAJ attitude has been super noticable

No burnham but still a great skill group

no masoli for 2 weeks is official
 
Bo Levi mvp odds are tempting to me, I think he should be favorite with the talent around him and the narrative he can build
 
guaranteeed said:
Bo Levi mvp odds are tempting to me, I think he should be favorite with the talent around him and the narrative he can build
Click to expand...

He sure looked good in a couple of preseason drives. I would love for this to be a successful second act for Bo.

Montreal up to -3 now
 
Hulu said:
Results after Preseason...

Sides 0-2 -1.075*

Overall 0-2 -1.075*


Week 1 Recap...
1* BC / CAL over 46.5 -110
1* Edmonton +2.5 -115
1* BC Lions +3.5 -110
1* Montreal -1.5 -110
Click to expand...
group just hit the BC over and EDM +1.5 so you'll have very good CLV on those at the least :)
 
0.25* Prop Cody Fajardo over 236.5 pass yds -110

This is a fairly low number but I think commander Cody can go over it rather easily
 
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