CFL Syndicate 2023

Hulu said:
So the total in Toronto opened at 45.5 which is close to what I made it and has since gone up to 47.5. I think it could go higher yet on game day when the public gets involved in a game with 2 first place teams. I think it could hit 49 or even 50.

All this has got me thinking under since both BC and Toronto are foun dationally defensive teams. In fact, I would say BC is #1 and Toronto is #2 in the league. Both QBs are good but not great. And both are missing offensive pieces. BC is thin at receiver and Toronto on the OL. This could be a closely contested, heavyweight fight that ends up 23-20.
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I like it!
 
So far

BC -120
Edmonton +3.5
Under Bc Tor
Over MTL Winnipeg.

Montreal has to score to hang. Montreal is not Bc on defense.


I want to take Montreal as well and I might but as for now in game is my thought. Odds are Winnipeg isn’t a pushover this week.

It’s difficult
 
spottie2935 said:
Okay I understand unders are strong so I’m not that confident. Winnipeg does score so that’s what I’m thinking
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I think it depends a lot on which Montreal offence we see because they were quite different in game 1 vs game 2.

In game 1 they doggedly stuck to the run game whether it worked or not. They had a lot of 2 and outs and only put up 19 points vs Ottawa

In game 2 they were exactly the opposite, relying on the pass vs Hamilton and they were able to score a substantial amount of points against the poor cats defence.

So which ALs offence do we get? Run first or pass first?

I agree they will probably need to score to keep up because they won't keep the Bombers off the scoreboard so I would lean over as well. I made the number 49.
 
Im with you. The Bomber D do they step up? MTL are they not taking advantage?

I still think over but in an under league and trends are unders. On the other hand Winnipeg is just a different animal.

lean over.

BC Toronto under
 
Dont get me wrong I still think this is a tough week

somethings i like but that doesnt mean I win.

best bets

BC -120
MTL +6
Edm +3.5
under BC
over Mtl Wpg 48.5
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
season>2015

Dogs in weeks :
#1 20-8 ATS
#2 12-13 ATS
#3 16-12 ATS
#4 12-10 ATS

if our Dog lost its last game:
week:
2. 5-8 ats
3. 11-5 ats
4. 9-6 ats

if our dog has 0 wins after 2 games:
week:
3. 5-3 ats
4. 4-1 ats

if our dog has 0 wins after week 2 and the favorite in this matchup has 0 or 1 win

the dog is 6-1 ats
-==-=-=--=-=-=-

Favorites with 0 wins before A week 5 game and not including week 1 because there is no previous games to get a feel from and dogs do very very well in week 1 so i threw out week 1.

F and week>1 and team : wins=0 16-23 ATS and opponent losses>1 the favorite in this situation is 2-6-2 ATS depending on lines its probably 3-7 ats



I looked deeper into the game with Edmonton and Ottawa to try and sort out an angle. One other thing I looked into was Edmonton 2 weeks ago was shutout but there isnt much data on that situation. The favorite was 1-2 ATS

Lastly since Edmonton scored this week I added this

F and week<6 and t:wins=0 and week>1 and week<5 and op:points<34 and line>-6

Favorite less than week 5 and favorite has 0 wins and not week 1 and our opponent scored less that 34 points in their last game this this line is >-6

5-12-1 ATS.

Conclusion the more points Edmonton gets the less chance they have to cover. Its kind of reverse thinking but the books will tell you how much Edmonton will have a chance in this game.

There are only 3 games this week and I just wanted to put some ideas on paper in this matchup.
Click to expand...
GREAT STUFF
 
AD and t : wins =0 and week<5 and o : wins<2

Away dog with 0 wins playing a team with less than 2 wins in weeks 1 thru 4

47-22 ATS

Fade Ottawa and add the schedule Edmonton has faced so far

Home favorite to Sask !

Toronto and BC These in my opinion are best in the East and West !

The strength of schedule and lines favor Edmonton more than they do Ottawa, past results are bad for both.
 
spottie2935 said:
Dont get me wrong I still think this is a tough week

somethings i like but that doesnt mean I win.

best bets

BC -120
MTL +6 no bet
Edm +3.5
under BC
over Mtl Wpg 48.5
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I am taking MTL down they have played scrap so far. (A win vs Ottawa and Hamilton)

I think I will add a WPG ML to a few parlays.
 
t : team=Elks and o : team=Redblacks and AD >>> Elks 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU

t : team=Elks and AD and season>2016 and line<6 >>>> 11-6 ATS and 9-8 SU

Edmonton Moneyline has a huge ROI
 
BC and Winnipeg as away chalk vs East teams


Home Eastern division teams vs. Away Western division teams since 2015 when the Eastern team line is greater than -5 (small favorite or home dog)

35-70-2 (33.3%) SU
42-64 39.6 % ATS

they average a 5 point loss and only win 33% of the time



=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--==-=-

if I take the above a step further and eliminate eastern home favorites against Western foes (Eastern home dogs vs West teams):

20-47-1 (-6.8,29.9%) SU
32-35 ATS



Straight up for a long while now the West has been proven to have the much better teams. There is very little chance in my opinion that both MTL and BC both lose this week. If by chance, and I dont see it, Winnipeg loses BC becomes more valuable.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Ottawa vs Edmonton

East home favorites vs the West

SU:109-88-1 (55.3%)
ATS:83-113-2 (42.3%)

=--=-=-==-=-=-

lastly

division=East and o : division=West and HF and o : wins<3 and week<5

before week 5 if the western away dog has less than 3 wins and the opponent is an eastern team

the eastern team is :

( 18-23 SU)
(11-30 ATS)

Go Edmonton!

Final thought this week is the best teams are not to be faded and BC and WPG are top of the class in my opinion. Sure Toronto is up there as well but the East is NOT the beast.
 
Some injury news...

BC looks to be getting back both Rhymes and Hatcher at receiver and Mizzel at RB. So they are basically full strength now.

Edmonton will be without WR Eugene Lewis
 
ALs with some big time injury probs this week…

It appears the Als will make most of their changes on defence — a unit that has yet to allow a touchdown this season.

Bryce Notree is expected to start at middle-linebacker for Avery Williams(elbow), while defensive-back J.R. Reed replaces Ciante Evans (leg). Evans has intercepted three passes this season and is the CFL leader. During Thursday’s practice, cornerback Dionté Ruffin left with an undisclosed injury and was replaced by Kordell Rodgers, who would potentially come off the practice roster.

Guard Pier-Olivier Lestage (back) will be replaced by Philippe Gagnon. Receiver Keshunn Abram isn’t practising due to a knee injury. Tyler Snead is the likely replacement.
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1* Winnipeg -5.5 -110

I already leaned this way due to the way the Bumblers got hammered last week. One player said it was a "horror show" and said that every man on the team took that loss very personally. I think they are itching to lash out at anyone who gets in their way and this week it happens to be the ALs. Montreal is a below avg team who has gotten off to a 2-0 start by beating up on bottom dwellers Ottawa (barely) and then a Hamilton team in total disarray. Now add these injuries into the mix and I think there is solid value on the Bombers under a TD.
 
Hulu said:
1* Winnipeg -5.5 -110

I already leaned this way due to the way the Bumblers got hammered last week. One player said it was a "horror show" and said that every man on the team took that loss very personally. I think they are itching to lash out at anyone who gets in their way and this week it happens to be the ALs. Montreal is a below avg team who has gotten off to a 2-0 start by beating up on bottom dwellers Ottawa (barely) and then a Hamilton team in total disarray. Now add these injuries into the mix and I think there is solid value on the Bombers under a TD.
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i changed my pick and thinking . i think you are going to win
 
Vapster said:
I was thinking about this when I saw the line, as I remember you mentioning the poor home chalk numbers awhile back...
:shake:
Click to expand...
Last Night (WED...Pacific Standard Time...) 24 Hours Ago... EDM Was +140 And +3 -110

NOW...24 HRS LATER... EDM +115 And +2 -110

:shake:
 
Hulu said:
1* Winnipeg -5.5 -110

I already leaned this way due to the way the Bumblers got hammered last week. One player said it was a "horror show" and said that every man on the team took that loss very personally. I think they are itching to lash out at anyone who gets in their way and this week it happens to be the ALs. Montreal is a below avg team who has gotten off to a 2-0 start by beating up on bottom dwellers Ottawa (barely) and then a Hamilton team in total disarray. Now add these injuries into the mix and I think there is solid value on the Bombers under a TD.
Click to expand...
Couple HRS Later...Now -6...

:shake:
 
Quan Bray just got dumped by Ottawa after it came to light that he is facing a sexual assault charge. He just can't stay away from trouble. 2 years ago he got caught with 150lbs of weed in texas and skated with a fine somehow.

Anyway Fanduel still has his receiving prop up if you're looking for a lock tomorrow.
 
Hulu said:
Quan Bray just got dumped by Ottawa after it came to light that he is facing a sexual assault charge. He just can't stay away from trouble. 2 years ago he got caught with 150lbs of weed in texas and skated with a fine somehow.

Anyway Fanduel still has his receiving prop up if you're looking for a lock tomorrow.
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Don't they require the player to at least see action on the field for prop bets?
 
1* Edmonton TT o19.5 -116

I think the Elks behind Doege can get some points vs this defence which is missing 2 starting DBs
 
Next week look ahead MY LINES!!!

These are complete guesses you can comment if you like but if i am way off take that into consideration.

Elks +10 The last 3 lines Ed was @ Sask the lines were +10 +11 +8. I wouldnt be shocked if this was +14 and +10 is kinda light. I hesitate to make it North of 10 because its not BC, Tor and WPG.

CGY +7 @ WPG This will be CGY's first time as dog this season and the only winning game they had was against Ottawa. The opening line could be slightly lower but 7+ line should be the closing line.

MTL +8 @ BC . Its possible that this opens lower but I think this is about right. The last 4 trips to BC MTL lines were +9, +9, +9, +5.5. Montreal is showing a bit up improvement but BC is solid.

Ott +3 @ Hamilton. Total guess. Hamilton is a complete fade and I am not that interested in Ottawa, even as a dog.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

My best approach is to look ahead for next weeks lines and try to get a feel of who is strong next week and who looks to have problems next week.

Obviously with BC and WPG as the remaining favorites this week there is no real opportunities for this but it is good practice for future weeks
 
spottie2935 said:
Next week look ahead MY LINES!!!

These are complete guesses you can comment if you like but if i am way off take that into consideration.

Elks +10 The last 3 lines Ed was @ Sask the lines were +10 +11 +8. I wouldnt be shocked if this was +14 and +10 is kinda light. I hesitate to make it North of 10 because its not BC, Tor and WPG.

CGY +7 @ WPG This will be CGY's first time as dog this season and the only winning game they had was against Ottawa. The opening line could be slightly lower but 7+ line should be the closing line.

MTL +8 @ BC . Its possible that this opens lower but I think this is about right. The last 4 trips to BC MTL lines were +9, +9, +9, +5.5. Montreal is showing a bit up improvement but BC is solid.

Ott +3 @ Hamilton. Total guess. Hamilton is a complete fade and I am not that interested in Ottawa, even as a dog.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

My best approach is to look ahead for next weeks lines and try to get a feel of who is strong next week and who looks to have problems next week.

Obviously with BC and WPG as the remaining favorites this week there is no real opportunities for this but it is good practice for future weeks
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Here's what I scrawled down last night before bed. Subject to change but for now we're pretty darn close...

EDM @ SSK -11
CGY @ WPG -6.5
MTL @ BC -8
OTT @ HAM -2.5
 
One thing about EDM next week is they are playing their second straight road game and on their second straight short week. Thats tough for any team, let alone one in complete shambles. It could be another complete drubbing.
 
My updated OL Rankings...

1 - BC
2 - WPG
3 - TOR
4 - CAL
5 - MTL
6 - OTT
7 - HAM
8 - SSK
9 - EDM

Sask rises a position by sucking slightly less than Edmonton. Hamilton only in 7th because they are missing 3 starters so they will probably get better soon. WPG still in 2nd after that horrendous game last week but I honestly couldn't put anyone else above them.
 
Hulu said:
One thing about EDM next week is they are playing their second straight road game and on their second straight short week. Thats tough for any team, let alone one in complete shambles. It could be another complete drubbing.
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If we are talking about taking Edmonton and the line hit +15, and for me, the best way to touch it was a 10 point teaser would I feel safe +25?

There is no safe with Edmonton. The reason why ? If they were playing darts they havent hit any part of the black outside the rings that count.
 
HD's remain.

Those HD's off a win are 27-36 ATS if the line is <4 Fade Argo's.

HD's of less than 8 points since 2012 in weeks<11 off a win

H and D and line<8 and season>2012 and week<11 and p:W


9-21 ATS

Both TOR and MTL off a win

2-6 ATS if the home dog is off back to back W's
 
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