CFL Syndicate 2023

An away dog getting less than 4 points that scores >=13 points in this game and holds their opponent to <=40 points is 129 - 98 SU so thats a huge ROI and 150-75 ATS

the greater the line the ROI increases but that is not the case in this game. but the moneyline in this game is stronger because the line is so tight.

According to this and it makes sense to me. Win or lose the Riders are the play tonight and I have Toronto ML in a few parlays tomorrow.
 
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Sask has a bye followed by a home game vs Edmonton in week 5. I know I am being redundant. I am just working my way and thinking ahead so i can grasp scoop up some early lines ahead.

AD and p : L and n : line<-7 and o : points<45 and line<5

so as long as Calgary doesnt score 45+ dogs are 11-4 with no points and with points 14-1ATS.

In my opinion the reason for this is the big line ahead for Saskatchewan. If they win tonight that gives a reason for the books to inflate the Edmonton line is week 5. There is no other way to back Edmonton until they start covering and winning. This works in all Football betting. Look ahead lines and being able to line games in future games is important. In these cases we are taking middle teams. Teams that are not dogs every week and not favorites every week. Line fluctuations and meanders find valuable situations. Bad teams like Edmonton, and good teams line Winnipeg with no line fluctuations are difficult to know when their performances will reverse.

We dont want to be betting against teams that can score big points and hold their opponent to under 20 points. Nor do we want to bet on team with no or little scoring.

Edmonton plays Ottawa in week 4 and if they fail this week thats a situation that they can overcome the line. If Edmonton fails (against Ott in week 4 ) next week that would make them 0-3 ATS and 2 previous games ago they were shutout.

In week 4 Ottawa will be off a bye week

HF and rest>7 and rest<14 and o : wins<2 (9-22 ATS)

if that home teams fails to score >=37 points (4-18 ATS)
 
As soon as a favorite scores 33+points they cover at 80% 312-79 ATS. So yea avoiding the elite is very important.

the opposite

If a Favorite scores less than 27 they fail to cover 80% 108-421 ATS. If the line is <-6 its 85% failure rate.

Posting this should be some benefit for in game ideas.
 
At this point I always like to start thinking about whether teams are looking like over or under teams from the strengths and style of play. Here's what I am thinking so far. Disagreements welcome.

BC - Solid under team. With that defence they will rarely give up more than 23 points and the offence is slow enough they aren't likely to score more than that.

Edmonton - Under team. Offence is pathetic and the defence is much improved over last year although they do have some problems in the secondary which is worth watching.

Calgary - Somewhat under team. Maier sucks and he can't push the ball downfield. Average defence should keep them in 24-23 type games.

Sask - No opinion yet. They are much more reliant on the run this year but Harris hasn't shyed from pushing the ball downfield either. Decent defence

Winnipeg - An offense that looked like they could score at will (until they ran into the BC defence) and a good defence that hasd taken a step back from previous years. They were an over team LY and they still look like one in the right spot now.

Hamilton - Below average on both offence and defence. This could be an under team but the jury is still out

Toronto - Stacked defence and a newish QB has me thinking this is an under team.

Ottawa - Solid under team. Average defence with a horrid offence. When Masoli comes back the offence will be better but probably still an under team.

Montreal - No opinion yet. Looks like an under team but Fajardo has surprised me a bit this season. Defense is average.
 
Hulu said:
Sort of matches whats been going on thus far. My opinions will evolve as the weeks go by and I wouldn't be surprised to see the avg total creep up to 49 or 50 by year and end the avg score up around 51. The overs will come
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since and after 2017 season, and team after a game that went over the unders are 136-90-7 60.2 %

if both teams last games both went over unders are 76-42-4 64.4%

The data is 100 % with your thoughts, no need to buck the trends. If the overs hit the lines usually are the equalizer, and will provide under opportunities.

Good stuff I am with you.
 
We are going to see a few things tonight.

How does the rookie QB do on the road.

How does the Edmonton D do tonight at home against a rookie QB.

Argo's pretty strong D. Do we see a new Edmonton QB?
 
Results after week 3...

Sides 7-4 +6.33*
Totals 0-4 -4.40*
Props 2-1 +0.475*
Parlays 1-0 +1.00*
Live 1-3 -2.375*

Overall 11-12 +1.03*

3-4 for a small loss this week. Would've been a good week if not for getting too deeply involved with Winnipeg live. What can I say...I'm a gambler.
 
season>2015

Dogs in weeks :
#1 20-8 ATS
#2 12-13 ATS
#3 16-12 ATS
#4 12-10 ATS

if our Dog lost its last game:
week:
2. 5-8 ats
3. 11-5 ats
4. 9-6 ats

if our dog has 0 wins after 2 games:
week:
3. 5-3 ats
4. 4-1 ats

if our dog has 0 wins after week 2 and the favorite in this matchup has 0 or 1 win

the dog is 6-1 ats
-==-=-=--=-=-=-

Favorites with 0 wins before A week 5 game and not including week 1 because there is no previous games to get a feel from and dogs do very very well in week 1 so i threw out week 1.

F and week>1 and team : wins=0 16-23 ATS and opponent losses>1 the favorite in this situation is 2-6-2 ATS depending on lines its probably 3-7 ats



I looked deeper into the game with Edmonton and Ottawa to try and sort out an angle. One other thing I looked into was Edmonton 2 weeks ago was shutout but there isnt much data on that situation. The favorite was 1-2 ATS

Lastly since Edmonton scored this week I added this

F and week<6 and t:wins=0 and week>1 and week<5 and op:points<34 and line>-6

Favorite less than week 5 and favorite has 0 wins and not week 1 and our opponent scored less that 34 points in their last game this this line is >-6

5-12-1 ATS.

Conclusion the more points Edmonton gets the less chance they have to cover. Its kind of reverse thinking but the books will tell you how much Edmonton will have a chance in this game.

There are only 3 games this week and I just wanted to put some ideas on paper in this matchup.
 
Lastly in a matchup both teams =0 wins and week is not week 1 if the dog can get 34 points or more its 12-1-1 ATS.


if the dog cant score 24 its 1-8 ATS.
 
spottie2935 said:
Lastly in a matchup both teams =0 wins and week is not week 1 if the dog can get 34 points or more its 12-1-1 ATS.


if the dog cant score 24 its 1-8 ATS.
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This makes sense if the line is lower maybe they san score more points. but if the line is bigger say <-6 then its spells trouble for Edmonton.
 
Was hoping to get BC as a dog but they are pk at Toronto

EDM @ OTT -3.5 42.5
WPG @ MTL +5.5 47.5
BC @ TOR pk 45.5
 
Not a futures bettor much but BC at +300 for the Cup still seems like value. Not betting it but guessing they'll be the betting favorites going into the postseason

Very limited knowledge in the sport has me liking under in Montreal this week

Hopefully something early allows BC to catch points live
 
So Edmonton cut Kai Locksley after the debacle last night. Apparently after being benched for the fumble, he refused to go back in the game for a short yardage play.

I think Jarret Doege will start at Ottawa but no confirmation yet. Redblacks starting Tyree Adams. That one is gonna be painful to watch.

Under 42.5 might be the only way to look at this one but with 2 QBs that were 3rd stringers only 3 weeks ago, pick sixes are a real possibility.
 
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Winnipeg -5.5 might have some value as I think they are ready to let some frustration out for the crap game they played last week. The Alouettes are 2-0 but faced Ottawa at home and then a Hamilton team in complete disarray roster wise. They aren't very good. Winnipeg might roll here.
 
Hulu said:
Winnipeg -5.5 might have some value as I think they are ready to let some frustration out for the crap game they played last week. The Alouettes are 2-0 but faced Ottawa at home and then a Hamilton team in complete disarray roster wise. They aren't very good. Winnipeg might roll here.
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A portion of me thinks youre right but I am more thinking this is the best Montreal team (so far) in a while. Before they were lousy! They are not Lousy anymore. Add to that WPG finally looks like a team in regression. It a bit to early to define what WPG is but I think we talked about that this year they are showing holes in their previous greatness. That and the WPG lines are subtly changing against them.
 
spottie2935 said:
A portion of me thinks youre right but I am more thinking this is the best Montreal team (so far) in a while. Before they were lousy! They are not Lousy anymore. Add to that WPG finally looks like a team in regression. It a bit to early to define what WPG is but I think we talked about that this year they are showing holes in their previous greatness. That and the WPG lines are subtly changing against them.
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I can see both sides. These teams have played some pretty close games in the past few years. In fact Montreal is one of the 2 teams to beat Winnipeg at home.

I think I'll stay away from this one for now.
 
Lets talk BC/TOR

I lean to BC here as Toronto has looked good but not great and I think Chad Kelly will struggle against the best defence he's faced. But is BC due for a let down after beating Winnipeg?

And what about VAj? He's looked pretty damn good so far. Is this a new VAJ or will he revert to his previous inconsistent form at some point?

So many questions
 
This season is a bit transitional. Kelly for TOR, VAJ in BC, WPG are they still the leaders. I dont know if WPG was just one bad game. Fcts are though the lines are getting to them. Histroy shown only 14 times as away chalk laying <-3. That means a lot to me. Arguably Worse team with worse lines.
 
VAJ in BC seems comfy out there. has a nice D and can just play as he doesnt and not take chances. The D makes him better so far.
 
Last week BC was sacked 7 times for -24 thats just taking a sack and not making huge mistake.

VAJ 2 Td's and no INT's
 
BC @TOR

I am betting the line. I have not done all the research on the game. I am a bit off put as good as both teams have played.
 
All good points. Before the line came out I made BC -2.5 so I really should be on them.

Also, Toronto's OL depth was already being tested but they lost another lineman last night. I haven't heard an update but if he is out also, how is Toronto going to fare against BCs amazing DL?

Alright, you helped me talk my way into it. I also feel like this line will move toward BC by kickoff. I don't think it gets better than -120.

Making it official...

1.5* BC Lions ML -120
 
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Hulu said:
Wow just checked Pinnacle and BC is -2 and ML is -131

That should tell us all we need to know
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like I said I am not on BC because its my best play but the line makes it easy to get away from and middle if i want out. Its a tough game. I am not happy betting VAJ on the road as chalk and The Argos are good.

All these matchups are kinda even this week. Yes Montreal too. MTL can win or get stomped. Its a gamble on or against Winnipeg. and the line.

I just dont think MTL is lousy and only lousy teams get stomped at home.

EDM at Ottawa. I could make a case for both teams getting their first win. Ottawa is terrible at home but have they played a bad team like EDM?
EDM might be their only road win here. Its a gamble either way.

Its not that great of a week to pound any game. The best line value is MTL, flip side is still against Winnipeg.

Following trends leans:

Take Edmonton after a shutout and giving up so many points and it look like they quit in the 2nd H last week (until late 4th Q trash TDS late). Following fade Ottawa as a terrible chalk.

I just searched a HD after 2+ covers fade MTL here is 17-29 ATS. its better than average but if that HD scores 27+ they are 9-2 within this trend. WPG has issues on D then its best to take that into consideration.
 
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Without saying it we both see that this week is a challenge. I am focused on respecting the lines and not be euphoric because it’s football.

Something in the back of my mind is the favorites won in weeks one and two. 3 was good for dogs and I give the dogs the edge moving forward. I love BC being the last game this week. Holding a good line only makes it better if both games before BC are dogs like I guess they will be.
 
Elks +3.5
A few reasons:

As I mentioned Ottawa bad home favorite

Home favorite Teams off a bye week before week 11 are also terrible 11-27 ATS

Screenshot (2).png


2ND Photo shows lines>-6 are also bad and dont win the games as often as the dog. moneylline in play for EDM
 

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spottie2935 said:
Elks +3.5
A few reasons:

As I mentioned Ottawa bad home favorite

Home favorite Teams off a bye week before week 11 are also terrible 11-27 ATS

View attachment 74905


2ND Photo shows lines>-6 are also bad and dont win the games as often as the dog. moneylline in play for EDM
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This is the only way I could play it as well. But I'm leaving this one alone for now.

I just can't get a feel for how these teams will preform. I don't think Tyrie Adams is a starting level QB for Ottawa. Chris Jones wouldn't say who would start for the Elks when asked today but Doege took the majority of first team reps today so maybe him or maybe Cornelius or maybe even Tre Ford knowing Chris Jones.

Game looks like a total toss-up so its probably wise to take the points and hold your nose.
 
Hulu said:
This is the only way I could play it as well. But I'm leaving this one alone for now.

I just can't get a feel for how these teams will preform. I don't think Tyrie Adams is a starting level QB for Ottawa. Chris Jones wouldn't say who would start for the Elks when asked today but Doege took the majority of first team reps today so maybe him or maybe Cornelius or maybe even Tre Ford knowing Chris Jones.

Game looks like a total toss-up so its probably wise to take the points and hold your nose.
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I look at a game like this in all sports.

As much as it makes sense to ride a great and hot team : Winnipeg and the such, fading terrible favorite teams makes just as much sense to me. As much as we struggle to find a line that makes sense. The books have the same difficulty. This is a game where who ever wins the first half the opposite should happen in the second half.
 
spottie2935 said:
I look at a game like this in all sports.

As much as it makes sense to ride a great and hot team : Winnipeg and the such, fading terrible favorite teams makes just as much sense to me. As much as we struggle to find a line that makes sense. The books have the same difficulty. This is a game where who ever wins the first half the opposite should happen in the second half.
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The only thing I'm certain of in that game is that I won't be on Winnipeg.

Can go several different ways with that, possibly won't be on anything at all. But I do know Winnipeg will not be a wager. They will get the best games from the lesser teams like Ottawa. And at home I expect Ottawa defense to hold firm. It's a flat under wager for me. Fading Ottawa offense is easy, fading 'Peg offense on the road against a desperate team is easy too.

Now just hope I'm right.
 
KJ said:
I still don't understand scoring as much as I should

Is 3 still an important number in CFL? Can't keep it straight with 1 point scores and the like
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Here's my 2007-2022 CFL vs NFL push chart. CFL in red, NFL in blue.

You'll see the 3 is still a key number just like the NFL although not as strong. The big difference is the 7 which is key in the NFL but not so much in the CFL.

1687914065328.png
 
So the total in Toronto opened at 45.5 which is close to what I made it and has since gone up to 47.5. I think it could go higher yet on game day when the public gets involved in a game with 2 first place teams. I think it could hit 49 or even 50.

All this has got me thinking under since both BC and Toronto are foun dationally defensive teams. In fact, I would say BC is #1 and Toronto is #2 in the league. Both QBs are good but not great. And both are missing offensive pieces. BC is thin at receiver and Toronto on the OL. This could be a closely contested, heavyweight fight that ends up 23-20.
 
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