CFL Syndicate 2023

Was really banking on a 46 total in the capital with arbuckle stating and maiers issues, I was shocked at a 42.5

think I will end up being with you on the bombers/lions parlay, think that may happen a few times this year as they seem head and shoulders above the rest of the league in being at least above average in all 3 facets, every other team has a glaring weakness at the moment
 
guaranteeed said:
Was really banking on a 46 total in the capital with arbuckle stating and maiers issues, I was shocked at a 42.5

think I will end up being with you on the bombers/lions parlay, think that may happen a few times this year as they seem head and shoulders above the rest of the league in being at least above average in all 3 facets, every other team has a glaring weakness at the moment
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I almost feel like taking the over on principle. 42.5 is crazy
 
The market has changed and these lines are getting hammered sharp within minutes now instead of hours or days like in the past. That Winnipeg number went from -2.5 to -5.5 in a half hour. Its getting tougher to beat the market. I'm sure I'll have fewer bets overall this year.
 
0.5* Andrew Harris under 58.5 rush yds -110

AJ Oulette seems to get as many carries as Harris does these days.
 
I hate to do this. Betting against my team in a game I am going to. But value is value and this number has moved into playable range. The Argos should be favoured here. I made it -2.5

1* Toronto pk -110
 
I leaned Hamilton in this game since the schedule was released but after seeing how bad they looked last week and considering it further, I made Toronto short favs at home.

There is this narrative that the cats had a bad half and their "come back" fell just short. But 3 fluke TDs is not a come back, its an aberration. They got blown the fuck out.

I asked yesterday, who is Chad Kelly? We won't know for sure until we see him play but there are a few reasons for optimism. Although he is a first year starter he is 29 years old so not a kid. He looked awfully good in preseason with a 118 efficiancy rating in limited action. I know its only preseason but what did VAj do in preseason and then in game 1? Jake Maier sucked in preseason and sucked in game 1. Maybe it means more than I thought. As my grandfather said, when someone shows you who they are, believe them.

The other thing I like here is that Toronto is getting back Jamal Peters which fills the gaping hole in their secondary. He is fresh off the Falcons mini camp so he should be in game shape and ready to be inserted in the lineup. Now that is solidified, the Argos may have the best defence in the league. Hardly a place for Bo and the offence to get in sync.

Slight advantage to Hamilton for having faced live ammunition so far this year but other than that, I think Toronto is better and more buttoned up at almost every position.
 
Hulu said:
I hate to do this. Betting against my team in a game I am going to. But value is value and this number has moved into playable range. The Argos should be favoured here. I made it -2.5

1* Toronto pk -110
Click to expand...
I sure timed that wrong. Toronto +2.5 now. Thats a big move.
 
Hulu said:
Thinking about this weekend...

Calgary @ Ottawa
  • This one opened Calgary -3 and has moved to -4.5/-5.
  • Ottawa on a short week
  • Arbuckle confirmed starting for the redblacks so I would have a hard time backing Ottawa unless we get more points
  • Calgary's offence looked like shite LW and I cant back them as a road fav right now.
  • Kadeem Carey out but they have another quality back behind him. OL Hugh Thornton has not been practicing and if he is out its a bigger deal.
  • Both these teams are offensively challenged right now so the under is in play but with a ridiculously low total of 42.5/43.5 I couldn't go under that. Only a handful of games in history have had totals this low.

Winnipeg @ Sask
  • Opened Wpg -2.5 and quickly moved to -5.5/-6
  • Sask on a short week.
  • Riders offensive line looked as awful as predicted LW and now the best piece they have, Philip Blake is out with a torn pec. Winnipeg D will feast this week
  • Trevor Harris has a hip pointer but should play
  • There might still be value at -6 because I have a hard time seeing the riders competing here. OTOH it is in Regina and strange things happen there.
  • Total is 47.5 Probably about right
Edmonton @ BC
  • Opened BC -6.5 and went to -7/7.5
  • Edmonton on a short week with travel. Tough to correct much on a ahort week and they have a lot to correct
  • Cornelius was missing receivers all day. He is going to be in tough vs BC's great defense
  • BC should have a huge crowd on hand. Dome field advantage!
  • This looks like a trucking to me
  • Total is 45.5. Looks about right to me
Hamilton @ Toronto
  • Opened Tor -2. Currently Tor -1.5
  • Toronto off a week 1 bye but Hamilton on a 9 day week so that likely evens out. I think the cats have a slight advantage having played a real game.
  • Who is Chad Kelly really? Everyone remembers the 10 or so plays that won the grey cup but in the late season start he had, he honestly looked a little lost. Then in limited preseason action he looked really good. Is he ready to be a full time starter? Toronto obv thought not as they tried to sign both Dane Evans and Cody Fajardo in the offseason.
  • Hamilton looked very plain on both offence and defence LW. Take away the 3 TDs off turnovers and this game was a rout. BLM looked out of sync and while that will come eventually, I'd like to see a sign before I invest my money in them.
  • Toronto will be presented with their grey cup banner and rings before the game while the cats are standing on the sideline watching and waiting. That would amp me up and I think it will them too.
  • If this got to 3 I would take Hamilton but I doubt it does.
  • Total is 46.5. I lean over as both these teams have new pieces in their secondary and are vulnerable to the pass. OTOH, BMO has been a solid under stadium and often has high winds coming from the lake end. And the cats offence looked so shaky LW.
Click to expand...
Killer stuff
 
Hulu said:
I hate to do this. Betting against my team in a game I am going to. But value is value and this number has moved into playable range. The Argos should be favoured here. I made it -2.5

1* Toronto pk -110
Click to expand...
Adding to this with another half unit at +125. I'm all in on my arch-rival argos. Lets go swag kelly!

Full bet now...

1.5* Toronto ML +102
 
Gents, I have to get something off my chest here...

This year is the Toronto Argonauts 150th anniversary and they seem to be trying to establish this false narrative that they are the oldest football team in existence. This is nothing more than a scurrilous lie! Of course, as we all know, The Hamilton Tigers football club was formed 3 years prior to the Argonauts and is widely recognozed as the oldest pro football team still in existence today.

The Argos are making their claim on two basis. First, they claim that because the Tigers changed their name to the Tiger-Cats in 1950 (after merging with the flying wildcats) that somehow its not the same club. This is so silly it deserves no response.

Second, they try to claim that because the Hamilton Tigers briefly paused operations during WWII that somehow the club didn't exist before then. While its true that enough of the Tigers players went to war (voluntarily or not) that the team had to pause playing for a couple of years, I hardly think these working class heros can be faulted for doing their patriotic duty in a time of global crisis. The Argonauts continued to field a team throughout the war because the sons of privilege that made up the high society Toronto Argonauts Rowing Club and PAID their way onto the football team managed to avoid getting drafted into the war somehow. Funny how that always happens, the rich start the war and the working class fight it. This is hardly a history for the argos to be proud of.

If you are watching the game on Sunday watch for me and my friends. We will be the ones unfurling a large banner that says "Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869. Oldest Professional Football Team" in front of the Argos fans.

My wife has been instructed to post my obit here in case I don't make it out.
 
Its a difficult week and the way these teams are structured its hard to find regression situations.

The only favorite this week that will be a dog next week is BC. I actually think under 46 is decent. The only way Edmonton covers is to exploit VAJ. After one game it looks like Jones D will or could be strong but thats TBD.

I agree with Hulu on Calgary Maier but just to fade him I end up with Arbuckle. I am confused.

No plays yet but based upon history I would play :

Ottawa +6.5
Edmonton +7

From recent history these at best split so no point in getting involved yet. I need some major blowouts to create a +EV bigger lined dog play(s)

If I had to select a dog it would be ottawa tonight and I will wait to see what happens at halftime.


Best wishes to all this week

:tiphat:
 
Ottawa at home since 2018 if the line is =4 or less. 0-14 ATS. if line is >4 5-6 ATS

if line is >4 1-13 SU so BC should win
 
Hulu said:
Gents, I have to get something off my chest here...

This year is the Toronto Argonauts 150th anniversary and they seem to be trying to establish this false narrative that they are the oldest football team in existence. This is nothing more than a scurrilous lie! Of course, as we all know, The Hamilton Tigers football club was formed 3 years prior to the Argonauts and is widely recognozed as the oldest pro football team still in existence today.

The Argos are making their claim on two basis. First, they claim that because the Tigers changed their name to the Tiger-Cats in 1950 (after merging with the flying wildcats) that somehow its not the same club. This is so silly it deserves no response.

Second, they try to claim that because the Hamilton Tigers briefly paused operations during WWII that somehow the club didn't exist before then. While its true that enough of the Tigers players went to war (voluntarily or not) that the team had to pause playing for a couple of years, I hardly think these working class heros can be faulted for doing their patriotic duty in a time of global crisis. The Argonauts continued to field a team throughout the war because the sons of privilege that made up the high society Toronto Argonauts Rowing Club and PAID their way onto the football team managed to avoid getting drafted into the war somehow. Funny how that always happens, the rich start the war and the working class fight it. This is hardly a history for the argos to be proud of.

If you are watching the game on Sunday watch for me and my friends. We will be the ones unfurling a large banner that says "Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869. Oldest Professional Football Team" in front of the Argos fans.

My wife has been instructed to post my obit here in case I don't make it out.
Click to expand...
Awesome. Hope to see you and your group.
 
spottie2935 said:
Its a difficult week and the way these teams are structured its hard to find regression situations.

The only favorite this week that will be a dog next week is BC. I actually think under 46 is decent. The only way Edmonton covers is to exploit VAJ. After one game it looks like Jones D will or could be strong but thats TBD.

I agree with Hulu on Calgary Maier but just to fade him I end up with Arbuckle. I am confused.

No plays yet but based upon history I would play :

Ottawa +6.5
Edmonton +7

From recent history these at best split so no point in getting involved yet. I need some major blowouts to create a +EV bigger lined dog play(s)

If I had to select a dog it would be ottawa tonight and I will wait to see what happens at halftime.


Best wishes to all this week

:tiphat:
Click to expand...

I've come to like Ottawa now that the spread has gotten close to 7. Their defence is good and it should be a low enough scoring game for them to stay close. I am going to wait out the line and see if we get a 7 closer to kickoff. I think its a good possibility.
 
Last year the Elks and Lions met 3 times. The Lions won all 3 by scores of 59-15, 46-14 and 31-14. The first 2 were with Rourke but the last was with VAj.

Edmonton's defence is better and healthy this season but I am still seeing a 27-16 type of game.
 
Trevor Harris officially listed as a game time decision by the riders. So who knows if he plays or not.

I see Calgary edging toward 7 at some books
 
1* Ottawa +7 -110

I made this 4.5 and I think Ottawa hangs here. As bad as Arbuckle is, he threw for 20 more yards than Jake Meier did last week. This looks like a 24-20 kind of game
 
Week 2 plays recap...

1* Ottawa +7 -110
1* Winnipeg -2.5 -110
1* BC Lions -6.5 -110
1* Parlay Winnipeg / BC Lions -108
1.5* Toronto ML +102
0.5* Andrew Harris under 58.5 rush yds -110
 
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with all this WINNING Winnipeg has accomplished only 6 times in their 2007 til now history have they ever layed <-5 points on the road.

3-3 SU record and 2-4 ATS.
 
One of these days it will kick in that I should leave the CFL alone. It just hasnt happened yet. It has been tattooed in my head that these lines can be had but until both teams can score its not going to happen.
 
Hulu you said after 2019 things are different. I agree so i searched teeams that scored less than 20 points after 2019.

114 results! In some cases both teams did so.

I then searched one team scoring 20+ points and the other team <20 points.

5-75 ATS! all 5 of those covers were as dogs obviously. Dogs 5-49 ATS

Finally all dogs scoring <20 points are 93-347-8 ATS 21.1 %

since and after 2019 < 20 point dogs 15-53-1 ATS 22.1%



This is the problem, it has occurred too many times in recent history. putting the ROI in the red for dogs
 
Overs in NCAA when the dog scores 20+ over hit at 66%


O/U:834-423-22 66.3%
ATS:880-382-17 (6.89, 69.7%)
So here is the thing. If a dog can score 20 instead of betting a team total over its best to parlay dog and over for a much stronger ROI.

NFL:
O/U:318-138-11 (6.52, 69.7%)
ATS:344-119-4 (6.28, 74.3%)
 
70% hitting one of these means a guesstimated 50% when combining the 2 games together in a 2 game parlay.

50% at 2.6 to one is a strong ROI.
 
NCAA PAC 12 teams with sound QB play as there are a few teams that rely on good QB play are going to be sound dog and over teams.

Washington
USC
Colorado
Utah
Oregon
Oregon State
Wash State
UCLA

with all these teams there are some great opportunities for dogs to hang and overs to hit.


PAC12 2022 results for a pay of dog and over if the dog scores 20+ was 18-22 meaning both dog and over came in 18 times and failed to hit both 22 times.

Now obviously its hard to predict when these teams both will score 20 points but the thought is eliminating some of lesser teams in the conference eliminates a lot of losers.

Arizona
2022 Colorado
CAL
ASU
 
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I know I am a bit off topic but football is football and all based upon talent and scoring points. Defense of course matters but their are only a few select teams that can stop most opponents. find a good D and stay the heck away
 
Hulu said:
Adding to this with another half unit at +125. I'm all in on my arch-rival argos. Lets go swag kelly!

Full bet now...

1.5* Toronto ML +102
Click to expand...

Adding a unit at +2.5 with the cats injury news.

Full bet now...

1*/1.5* Toronto +2.5 / ML -110 / +102
 
1* HAM / TOR over 46.5 -110

I'm also going to take a shot at the over. I liked it already but with Hamilton starting 2 rookies in the secondary they could be vulnerable to the pass and in his limited preseason debut, Chad Kelly showed no hesitation to go downfield. On the other side, Bo pushed the ball downfield a lot vs winnipeg last week and although he missed his receivers thats just a matter of them getting in sync. With a 9 day week I'm hoping that happens. Finally, Toronto brought back Jamal Peters off OTA with the atlanta falcons but he will not get the start which leaves a big hole in their secondary. Quantez Stiggers the 21 y/o rookie will start. No doubt he is athletic but he's 21 and never played college ball. He played one year in the FCF and thats it. Thats a pretty big jump to starting in the CFL. I think Bo can exploit him.
 
Cats also thin at OL as both Riley and Saxelid placed on IR. Brandon Kemp who played 1 game at RT LY will start.

Also missing Omar Bayless at SB. They’ll start rookie Galimore off the PR.

Everything lining up for the argos tomorrow.
 
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