CFL Syndicate 2023

Hulu

Hulu

#3DownNation
With training camps underway, its time to get things started for another season of 3 down football.

I come in humbled as last year I had my first losing season since 2013. I still think I could have come back but when legalization came the gambling landscape shifted beneath my feet and I lost access to my best CFL books late in the year. Nevertheless I lost and it pisses me off.

Since then I have had 3 losing seasons in a row in other sports...NFL, NCAAB and NBA and I am losing the faith. So this year I am going back to basics and am putting my full attention on the league where I have done the best over the years (+156 units all time). I am challenging myself to turn a profit or walk away from gambling because losing isn't fun.

As a wise man once said...Leggo!
 
One future that I like...

0.5* Montreal under 7.5 RSW -110

The ALs have lost a lot and did little to fill the holes. Offseason uncertainty over the ownership situation caused a number of free agents to jump ship. They have question marks at OL, receiver, DL and LB and I am not sold on Cody Fajardo leading this team anywhere. New HC Jason Maas is a dick and that tandem did not exactly light the world on fire last year in sask. Most pundits have the ALs at the bottom of their power rankings and I agree. It will be very tough for them to win 8 games this year.
 
Looks like the CFL is adopting the NFL's blue tent on the sidelines to shield injured players from view. Probably a good thing overall but I am a little saddened as my biggest CFL win ever came as a result of sitting behind the bench and being able to assess an injury before the lines moved.

It was 2015 or so and Collaros was tearing up the field for Hamilton, far and away the leader for MOP. He took a hit right before half but got up quickly and jogged off the field right before a commercial. I watched the trainers manipulate his knee on the table and I saw him shaking his head before finally putting it in his hands. The message was obvious...he wasn't coming back. Not for this game, maybe not for the rest of the season. They didn't have another offensive series before the half. I grabbed my phone and hit Edmonton 2H -4.5 for the max at every book I had and it won easily.

I'll always remember the dejected look on his face as he realized his season might be over, contrasted by my gleeful joy smashing bet after bet against him. I felt like a bad person. But I was a bad person who won a lot of money that day.
 
Some interesting comments from Bo Levi Mitchell…

“I’ve never big on the early-season record, though. Obviously you want to win the first game and get two points on the board but this is the CFL. I’ve beaten two very good teams (2014 Ticats, ’18 Redblacks) in the Grey Cup and I’ve lost to two 9-9 teams (Argos 2012, ’17), so I know just as much as anybody else that this league is about getting hot at the right time. With the number of moving parts we have, I don’t have this expectation that we need to be absolute world-beaters to start. I think we will build into finding out who we are as a team, find our identity and create a team that’s hard to beat in the playoffs.”
 
Among the minor rule changes this year is an interesting idea. Previously, on a kickoff you could only score a rouge if the ball went past the end line after being handled. Now it no longer has to be handled to score.

This opens the possibility of scoring 9 points by scoring a TD+2pt and then hammering the ensuing kickoff through the endzone for a rouge. It would be almost impossible but in an end game scenario I could see teams trying it.
 
The 4 westernmost teams had had to move camp indoors due to wildfire smoke. Except Calgary whose indoor facility was undergoing maintenance (nice timing guys). So the stamps lost 2 days of practices. Camp is only 2 weeks so that is very significant.
 
Hi Hulu and friends!
We are back soon enough!

In 2022 Favorites had a winning season ATS at 52%. The last time the favorites had the winning edge was 2014. These 2 seasons are the only 2 winning ATS seasons for the favorites dating back as far as 2007. I started following CFL in 2004. I dont have the data pervious to 2007 but I fell in love with the CFL because of the dog dominance.

dating back to 2007 Home favorites cash at a rate of 45%, even last year was at 48%. Sticking with away dogs is and will be profitable once again. I hope a real good season for dogs!

Home favorites off only one win in a row do miserably at 75-118-1 38%

Home favorites are at their worst as long as they have not lost -2 in a row : 291-392 42.6%. Just betting these over time one is profitable at 57.4%.

Add to the above the home favorites that have not lost -2 in a row and also have not went under in -2 ( 2 udners in a row) move this trend to 40.1% 179-267

Killer sports no longer has the SDQL for CFL and WNBA so all data is coming from a site called gimmethedog.com

All data from gimmethedog can only be seen if one is a member and signed up.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot (128).png
    Screenshot (128).png
    312.5 KB · Views: 2
Last edited:
okay that omits a few early weeks.

Week 1 data is simple also

week 1 home favorites ? 14-29 ATS
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot (129).png
    Screenshot (129).png
    304.1 KB · Views: 0
For those that can make their own lines these Home favorites that will be a dog in their next game 36%.

Some of these games are easy to line so keep this in mind 64% win rate on the teams that arent favorites every week.

I like this because there is usually one standout tam that we can eliminate consideration. Last few season it was Winnipeg.

Could this season be BC?
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot (131).png
    Screenshot (131).png
    305.9 KB · Views: 0
Lastly if the home favorite will be a dog their next game and the dog will be favorites next game these hit at 33%

67 % win rate.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot (132).png
    Screenshot (132).png
    309.8 KB · Views: 0
so for those that can look ahead to the next week lines can be the most profitable

The problem with look ahead lines is injuries and especially to QB's but none the less this has to be considered.
 
spottie2935 said:
Hulu i hope with your efforts and my useful data we can combine for the ATS results we both seek! Lets make the cash and have fun! We are due and ready!
Click to expand...
Welcome back spottie! Good to see you back for another year. I agree...lets make the bookies suffer this year. Its time for some revenge.
 
spottie2935 said:
okay that omits a few early weeks.

Week 1 data is simple also

week 1 home favorites ? 14-29 ATS
Click to expand...
This makes a ton of sense. The books just set week 1 lines based on last year without regard to any offseason changes so naturally some dogs are liklier to cover.

Also there's another effect I've witnessed over the years...every team thinks they are going to the cup. Every team thinks they are loaded with talent. And sometimes bad teams just don't know they are bad yet so they come in week 1 with max effort.

A prime example from LY...Ottawa opened +12 at Winnipeg and closed +6 by kickoff. That opening line was based purely off their respective records from 2021 and complete;y ignored how Ottawa had retooled.

This year in week 1 I think Hamilton might be a good candidate visiting Winnipeg. The cats had a down year but have retooled. I think the books will give us something juicy like +4 or maybe even better.

I like the cats even better in week 2 where they face an Argos team that hasn't played a game yet. That is the game where the Argos will have a pre-game ceremony to raise the grey cup banner and get their rings. If the cats are 0-1 and standing there on the sideline while their arch-rival is raising the banner, I think they will come out of the gate like a caged Lion Tiger.
 
Big news...

The CFL has announced its own streaming platform for US fans. All games not on CBS Sports network will be available, free, through CFL+.

Additionally, they will be streaming the in stadium video feed for all preseason games. For the first time ever I will be able to watch every preseason game! This is huge!
 
Dave Dickenson on Mondays preseason game:

“If you’re healthy, you’re playing,” Dickenson said. “I wouldn’t say they’re going to play a tonne-tonne, but we want some momentum, we want to play well. If you get the work in that I think you need, you’re out, but if not, do starters play up to a half? Sure, go for it.”

Meanwhile Edmonton is said to be leaving both Cornelius and Ford at home, leaving Kai Locksley to start.

Locksley was converted to receiver last year and then converted back this year. Chris Jones doing Chris Jones things.
 
Hulu said:
Dave Dickenson on Mondays preseason game:

“If you’re healthy, you’re playing,” Dickenson said. “I wouldn’t say they’re going to play a tonne-tonne, but we want some momentum, we want to play well. If you get the work in that I think you need, you’re out, but if not, do starters play up to a half? Sure, go for it.”

Meanwhile Edmonton is said to be leaving both Cornelius and Ford at home, leaving Kai Locksley to start.

Locksley was converted to receiver last year and then converted back this year. Chris Jones doing Chris Jones things.
Click to expand...
We need to move on from Coach Jones
 
@Hulu I’ve got a wild idea….

Since you travel to America all the time maybe I can buy some Elks gear, have it shipped to you in Ontario, then when you’re in the US of A you can mail it to me in Oregon.

Besides it being a huge pain in the ass for you this sounds like a great idea
 
Teapot9 said:
@Hulu I’ve got a wild idea….

Since you travel to America all the time maybe I can buy some Elks gear, have it shipped to you in Ontario, then when you’re in the US of A you can mail it to me in Oregon.

Besides it being a huge pain in the ass for you this sounds like a great idea
Click to expand...
Would shipping twice vs having it shipped direct save money in the end?
 
The way the CFL operates I think a middle to late season grey cup value play on a team that catches fire late is more to my liking.

Maybe BC or Winnipeg start slow finish strong. Winnipeg could go to 4 straight finals? Not sleeping on the Ticats.
 
spottie2935 said:
The way the CFL operates I think a middle to late season grey cup value play on a team that catches fire late is more to my liking.

Maybe BC or Winnipeg start slow finish strong. Winnipeg could go to 4 straight finals? Not sleeping on the Ticats.
Click to expand...
Youre right its pretty wide open this year. Its a matter of getting hot at the right time. Ottawa in the mix also now that Masoli is healthy again and they have a legit coach.
 
Hulu said:
Big news...

The CFL has announced its own streaming platform for US fans. All games not on CBS Sports network will be available, free, through CFL+.

Additionally, they will be streaming the in stadium video feed for all preseason games. For the first time ever I will be able to watch every preseason game! This is huge!
Click to expand...
So No Longer On ESPN + And Or ESPN 3?
 
Vapster said:
So No Longer On ESPN + And Or ESPN 3?
Click to expand...
Nope. The ESPN deal expired and the word is they didn't want to pay any more for the content. So the CFL signed a deal worth 5 times as much with CBS sports network to air 34 games this season. The rest are available free through CFL+
 
We have some lines for the first full week of preseason...

Montreal +1.5
Ottawa -1.5
Neither starting QB is slated to see action

Toronto +2.5
Hamilton -2.5
BLM won't see action. No word from Toronto yet as to whether Chad Kelly will see reps in this game

Winnipeg +1.5
Edmonton -1.5
No word on Collaros but I doubt he plays in their first preseason game on the road. Edmonton, OTOH, is playing their second game and Cornelius will likely see some snaps although no conf on that yet. Edmonton might be worth a look.

BC Lions +2.5
Saskatchwan -2.5
Harris likely absent due to the imminent birth of his latest child (trying to be the CFL's answer to Philip RIvers). Not sure how BC will handle but Campbells history suggests Adams won't play. However, BC has another legit starter in Evans. This is something to watch. BC might be worth a look is either will get some time.
 
Jeremiah Masoli has resumed practicing after his bad fracture LY from Marino's dirty hit. Theyve already said he won't play in the preseason and when asked about week 1 they've been non-committal. Something to keep an eye on. Nick Arbuckle would most likely start if Masoli isn't ready.

That must have been one hell of a fracture to take almost a year to heal
 
My first offensive line ranking for the year. Football is won and lost in the trenches.

1 - Calgary
2 - Winnipeg
3 - Toronto
4 - BC
5 - Hamilton
6 - Ottawa
7 - Montreal
8 - Edmonton
9 - Saskatchewan
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Hulu
CFL Syndicate 2024
11 12 13 14 15
Replies
731
Views
9K
pb278817
pb278817
R
CFL 2024
Replies
2
Views
47
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Reno Week #4
Replies
22
Views
701
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Wiretowire
MLB Friday 8/2
Replies
14
Views
201
2daBank
2daBank
B.A.R.
Reno Week #5
Replies
26
Views
641
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Back
Top