Bowl Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
I only played one game during Championship Week and lost it, which dropped me under 60% for the few weeks that I posted thoughts on the site this year. (35-24 .5932). I appreciate the feedback so many have provided since I started posting again...it was a lot of fun for me.

As for the bowls, I've always looked forward to them. It's a great time of year...I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir on that one. It's obviously a different animal than the regular season, as motivation and coaching situations are major factors in the ultimate outcomes of these games. Also, I'm not sure how everyone else feels about this, but I worry much less about "Line value" in the bowls than I do during the regular season. For example, if I hold off on a game early in the week during the regular season and the line moves a couple points against me, I have a very difficult time pulling the trigger on that game knowing I could have had 2-3 points better earlier in the week, oftentimes keeping me off games I still like just on principal. That's not the case in bowls. Since so many of these idiots find ways to get themselves suspended, and due to the increasing regularity of high level players sitting the games out, it's foolish to invest money in such uncertainty unless you have a stacked bankroll and don't mind rolling the dice. I find it's better to wait until we know who's playing, what coach is gone, etc and then determine the value at that point. I'm sure it will result in some missed opportunities, but I think the risk of the unknown outweighs that opportunity cost.

OK, on to the games. I'll be adding to this thread periodically as the games get closer. I'm taking a pass on the Bahamas Bowl


Pre Christmas (1-5)
Utah State -6.5: LOSS
San Diego State -3 WIN
Ga Southern -4 LOSS
Boise +3.5 LOSS
Appy State -17 LOSS
BYU -1.5 LOSS (joke)

Post Christmas (12-4)
La Tech +6 WIN
Eastern Michigan +11 WIN
Michigan State -3.5 WIN
USC +2 LOSS
Air Force -2.5 WIN
Notre Dame -3.5 WIN
Clemson -2 WIN
Louisville +4.5 WIN
Cal -5.5 WIN
Florida -14 LOSS
Navy pk WIN
Utah -7 HUGE LOSS
Minnesota +7 WIN
Alabama -7.5 WIN
Wilsconsin -3 LOSS
Georgia -4 WIN

1. Frisco Bowl: Utah State -6.5 v Kent: When this line opened at 9.5, there was a significant enough cushion there to have a decent lean toward taking those points. Kent, despite it's warts, was a resourceful squad down the stretch, finding ways to gut out victories with an offense that was great at staying on the field. They looked like Rocky Balboa after those games, with their at times helpless defense taking major punishment, but they strung enough wins together to get bowl eligible. However, now that this line has dropped to below a score, this looks like a game to lay the points with Utah State to me, assuming the pot smokers on Utah State play in the game. One of those pot smokers, QB Jordan Love, is the highest profile player in this game, and projects as a possible first round pick. Many people chuckle at that assertion, as he threw only 17 TDs this year vs 16 INTs, but anyone who watches him play can see the talent he has, and he had a 32/6 ratio last year with a better offensive line and higher level receivers. The good thing for Mr. Love however, is that he'll be dropping in class here, as Kent's defense hasn't been able to stop a nosebleed all year, ranking 108th in yards per play, 115th in yards per carry, 115th in yards per pass attempt and 113th on 3rd down. Also, despite his struggles, Love has been productive against much better defenses than Kent this year, as the Aggies put up solid offensive numbers against the likes of Wake (416 pass yards, 596 yards of offense), BYU (520 yards of offense, 394 yards passing), Fresno (525 yards of offense, 388 yards passing) and Boise (428 yards of offense, 307 passing yards). I can't see any scenario where the Kent defense can stop a talent like Love, and although I also think Kent will be able to move the ball on Utah State, they better score just about every possession if they want to stay within this number. Also, I'm skeptical of the MAC's relative strength this year. We all know how bad Akron, BG and even Toledo were at the end of the year, and the MAC's bowl record in recent years is atrocious. You can make a pretty strong case that the MAC finds itself overmatched in bowls more often than not, as they are 3-17 ATS since 2014 when suiting up as underdogs, as Kent is here. I'm usually a dog player, but I'll take a pass on that scenario. Ultimately, this looks like 44-28 type of game to me.
 
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2. New Mexico Bowl: San Diego State -3 (-120) v Central Michigan: I've been a big fan of what Jim McElwain has done in his first year at CMU, and I've ridden them the past several weeks with good overall results, but I don't like the matchup here. First of all, we have another MAC dog in a bowl game, and I've mentioned that track record (3-17 ATS since 2014), but this San Diego State defense is a nightmare matchup for the Chips. CMU relies heavily on the run, with a pair of running backs that combined for 2,000 yards. QB Quinten Dormady can throw it a little if he has to against bad defenses, but he's limited. Unfortunately, they'll be facing off against the #1 rush defense in the country in the Aztecs who allowed only 1 team to score more than 17 points all year. In addition to stopping the run, the SDSU defense is 12th in the country at forcing turnovers and the Chips cough it up regularly. On the other side of the ball SDSU is 2nd in the country in giveaways, so while they certainly won't be confused with Air Coryell, they don't beat themselves and controlled the ball enough to muster up the 9-3 record they bring into this game. We should also note that CMU was a completely different team at home than on the road. In addition to their terrible effort on a neutral in the MAC title game against Miami(OH), they got blown out by Western Michigan and Buffalo on the road, and all of their impressive wins came at home. I think asking CMU to just about have to beat this SDSU defense outright in order to cover is asking a lot. I would have thought they'd be getting at least around 6 in this one, so I'll take a chance at laying a field goal with the Aztecs here.
 
3. Cure Bowl Georgia Southern -4 v Liberty: While it's true that Liberty won 7 games this year, if I challenged you to come up with the least impressive collection of teams to accumulate 7 wins against, you'd have a hard time beating what Liberty did this year, especially because you would never consider including New Mexico State twice, which Liberty did this year. Here's the list: Buffalo(a nice win actually), Maine, Hampton, New Mexico, UMass and New Mexico State(2x). Their losses included a shutout loss to Syracuse who then proceeded to give up 63 points and 650 yards to Maryland the following week and a loss to Rutgers in which they were overwhelmed with 44 points, a total that accounted for 2 TDs more than the Scarlet Knights had scored in the previous 6 weeks combined. They'll tee it up with Georgia Southern, a squad who managed to beat Appalachian State on the road and came within 20 seconds of knocking off Minnesota in Minneapolis. The Eagles are exclusively a running squad, and Liberty ranks 105th in the country against the run. Not wild about playing yet another favorite, and there's some risk that Liberty might be able to throw it some on Ga Southern ,but at only 4(for now) and with Ga Southern's almost certain ability to run it down Liberty's throat, this seems like good value.
 
4. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise +3.5 v Washington: As we all know, team motivation is a huge factor in handicapping bowl games. In this case, it seems logical to assume that Washington might have a motivational edge in this game because of the impending retirement of Chris Petersen, but I am skeptical on that. To me, it seems like Petersen's "retirement" seems like more like he's throwing his hands up and saying"this is just a total pain in the ass, and I don't need it anymore." Almost as if the season was such a drag on him that he's ready to move on to something else. To me, that doesn't really indicate a strong team culture or a situation that players would be excited about. It was a disappointing season for them, and playing in the Las Vegas Bowl is a far cry to the Rose Bowl or the CFP, which the upperclassmen on this team surely remember from recent years.. Motivation is never a problem for a group of 5 team like Boise, which always has something to prove against their perceived big brothers. Also, although there is some uncertainty about how good Boise actually is this year, they never fail to show up for big games in scenarios like this. Competitively, I certainly don't think Washington's offense will be able to have any major advantage over them and their passing game has been good regardless of who's been under center. They definitely haven't played a team as good as Washington this year, but this is a program used to competing with the big boys. I like them to win this one.
 
5. New Orleans Bowl: Appy State -17 v UAB: Although UAB's overall numbers don't look bad when matched up with Appy State, I'm not going to be fooled by that.I don't want to disparage Bill Clark and the Blazers because they've overcome a lot and I've cashed a lot of tickets with them, but UAB has bulit all of their success this year beating up on weak teams, and the numbers look good as a result. All of the teams they beat this year were ranked in the bottom 30 in the country except for La Tech, which doesn't count because they played them without their best offensive players and failed to cover in the process. Every decent team not only beat UAB, they pummeled them. I don't need to go through the gory details, but we're talking 37-2, 49-6, etc. Appy State is likely better than any of them, and in recent years, teams in this position(very good group of 5 teams that don't make the NY6) have had no issues taking care of business.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. New Orleans Bowl: Appy State -17 v UAB: Although UAB's overall numbers don't look bad when matched up with Appy State, I'm not going to be fooled by that.I don't want to disparage Bill Clark and the Blazers because they've overcome a lot and I've cashed a lot of tickets with them, but UAB has bulit all of their success this year beating up on weak teams, and the numbers look good as a result. All of the teams they beat this year were ranked in the bottom 30 in the country except for La Tech, which doesn't count because they played them without their best offensive players and failed to cover in the process. Every decent team not only beat UAB, they pummeled them. I don't need to go through the gory details, but we're talking 37-2, 49-6, etc. Appy State is likely better than any of them, and in recent years, teams in this position(very good group of 5 teams that don't make the NY6) have had no issues taking care of business.
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I would discuss more but you've hit the key points.
 
I appreciate the Boise write-up too. There is obviously a lot of sentiment for Peterson n Washington but this isn't cut n dry for them.
 
I think udub will be motivated but I agree that more speculation where as we know Boise will be up to beat the pac-12 as they seemingly always do!! I don’t trust Eason either., any thoughts on where the score will be? I’m kinda leaning under more so than a side. I think the defenses hold edge on both sides.
 
Some key players sitting for Washington fwiw ... most notably the offensive lineman and the tight end
 
Br@ssknux said:
I only played one game during Championship Week and lost it, which dropped me under 60% for the few weeks that I posted thoughts on the site this year. (35-24 .5932). I appreciate the feedback so many have provided since I started posting again...it was a lot of fun for me.

As for the bowls, I've always looked forward to them. It's a great time of year...I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir on that one. It's obviously a different animal than the regular season, as motivation and coaching situations are major factors in the ultimate outcomes of these games. Also, I'm not sure how everyone else feels about this, but I worry much less about "Line value" in the bowls than I do during the regular season. For example, if I hold off on a game early in the week during the regular season and the line moves a couple points against me, I have a very difficult time pulling the trigger on that game knowing I could have had 2-3 points better earlier in the week, oftentimes keeping me off games I still like just on principal. That's not the case in bowls. Since so many of these idiots find ways to get themselves suspended, and due to the increasing regularity of high level players sitting the games out, it's foolish to invest money in such uncertainty unless you have a stacked bankroll and don't mind rolling the dice. I find it's better to wait until we know who's playing, what coach is gone, etc and then determine the value at that point. I'm sure it will result in some missed opportunities, but I think the risk of the unknown outweighs that opportunity cost.

OK, on to the games. I'll be adding to this thread periodically as the games get closer. I'm taking a pass on the Bahamas Bowl.



1. Frisco Bowl: Utah State -6.5 v Kent: When this line opened at 9.5, there was a significant enough cushion there to have a decent lean toward taking those points. Kent, despite it's warts, was a resourceful squad down the stretch, finding ways to gut out victories with an offense that was great at staying on the field. They looked like Rocky Balboa after those games, with their at times helpless defense taking major punishment, but they strung enough wins together to get bowl eligible. However, now that this line has dropped to below a score, this looks like a game to lay the points with Utah State to me, assuming the pot smokers on Utah State play in the game. One of those pot smokers, QB Jordan Love, is the highest profile player in this game, and projects as a possible first round pick. Many people chuckle at that assertion, as he threw only 17 TDs this year vs 16 INTs, but anyone who watches him play can see the talent he has, and he had a 32/6 ratio last year with a better offensive line and higher level receivers. The good thing for Mr. Love however, is that he'll be dropping in class here, as Kent's defense hasn't been able to stop a nosebleed all year, ranking 108th in yards per play, 115th in yards per carry, 115th in yards per pass attempt and 113th on 3rd down. Also, despite his struggles, Love has been productive against much better defenses than Kent this year, as the Aggies put up solid offensive numbers against the likes of Wake (416 pass yards, 596 yards of offense), BYU (520 yards of offense, 394 yards passing), Fresno (525 yards of offense, 388 yards passing) and Boise (428 yards of offense, 307 passing yards). I can't see any scenario where the Kent defense can stop a talent like Love, and although I also think Kent will be able to move the ball on Utah State, they better score just about every possession if they want to stay within this number. Also, I'm skeptical of the MAC's relative strength this year. We all know how bad Akron, BG and even Toledo were at the end of the year, and the MAC's bowl record in recent years is atrocious. You can make a pretty strong case that the MAC finds itself overmatched in bowls more often than not, as they are 3-17 ATS since 2014 when suiting up as underdogs, as Kent is here. I'm usually a dog player, but I'll take a pass on that scenario. Ultimately, this looks like 44-28 type of game to me.
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Despite the rocky start I wanted you to know I like your thread as much as I enjoy anything on the site.

Keep posting & Merry Christmas
 
bones said:
Despite the rocky start I wanted you to know I like your thread as much as I enjoy anything on the site.

Keep posting & Merry Christmas
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Thanks Bones....though it's been frustrating, I've had worse cold streaks that's for sure. Decided to sit out today because I really didn't have a great handle on that game. gonna dive back in. Thanks for the kind words.
 
Well, it's been a humdinger of a start to the bowl season for me(1-4), and no wonder, as I've been on almost all favorites, which usually is a recipe for disaster. One of these years I'm gonna learn to lay off the early (pre-Christmas) bowls. I don't have any documentation of it handy, but I'll bet I start out like a weakling more often than not. Lots of time to make a comeback, but I have to admit, it takes a lot of will power to avoid abandoning my methods and break off into the abyss.

6. Hawaii Bowl: BYU -1.5 v Hawaii: There's a few things here: First, you never have to worry about any motivational situation for BYU. Say what you will about the Mormons, they typically are high effort players that play with a chip on their shoulders, so I don't think motivation will be a problem. Lots of native Islanders have played for BYU and there's a pretty sturdy contingent of LDS on the island, so it won't be a madhouse for the Rainbows. Also, in a short lined game like this, I find it hard to back the squad with a defense that has been no consistently porous in so many areas. They've struggled to stop just about everyone they've played, giving up at 500 yards or more 6 times and 497 in another. They are 110th in yards per play against, 120th against the run, 87th on 3rd down, and 119th in sacks. Zach Wilson should be very comfortable standing in the pocket, and BYU has been able to shut down Rohlovch's attack with relative ease last year For all their numbers, the Hawaii pass attack is only ranked 53rd in yards per attempt, and BYU has been good at limiting big plays. Also, Hawaii has turned the ball over like crazy, and BYU is 20th in takeaways, so we could see some costly turnovers for the Rainbows in what looks like it will be a close game. In a game with two competent offenses, I'll take the one with the better ballhawking defense.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks Bones....though it's been frustrating, I've had worse cold streaks that's for sure. Decided to sit out today because I really didn't have a great handle on that game. gonna dive back in. Thanks for the kind words.
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You will bounce back: for most part i find those 1st 10 or so pre Xmas to be by far the toughest. I know app st and ucf just to win were only 2 I’ve had higher than 10 or so in confidence pools!! The real shit starts in a few days baby! Enjoy your Xmas then get to work!! Lol

I’m on BYU as well, gl and merry Xmas to you and yours.,
 
RetroVK said:
There is actually a strong bond between BYU and Hawaii due the polynesian cultural center and polynesian connections in general. Good luck.
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I heard Hawaiian players are such good hosts that BYU struggles to remember they have a game to play.
 
Nice work by BYU to get a total of 3 points on two drives where they had first and goal from the 5. Having said that though, I think they got boned on that touchback call. There was no clear angle to overturn, but IMO officials on the field missed that and thought they would get bailed out by replay. Looked like Wilson was over the goal line when he fumbled to me. I'm biased though, of course.
 
Last complaint on this Hawaii Bowl: BYU is getting the absolute bare minimum against this horrific Hawaii defense that is just begging to get lit up. Receivers make zero catches with any degree of difficulty, and their play calling is awful, especially in the red zone. This game should be over, but now they are one blown coverage away from losing.
 
7. Independence Bowl: La Tech +6 v Miami(FL): Given Miami's performance in these types of situations this year, I can't imagine laying 6 points. They've famously lost to FIU, Georgia Tech and Duke in situations where due to talent gap(FIU), overall ineptness of the opponent(Ga Tech), or the ultimate loss of motivation from the opponent(Duke), you couldn't fathom Miami losing. Now, after a 6-6 season, Miami has to sell their players on getting excited for a trip to Shreveport to play a CUSA also ran. Let's just say that without the crutch of playing a top opponent or being disrespected by the pointspread, Manny Diaz has not been able to motivate this team. Motivation issues aside, this Miami team is not without flaws that Tech matches up well with. La Tech's strengths on defense are vs the run(Miami ranks 113th running it), and on 3rd down(Miami is dead last, 130th, in 3rd down conversions). Offensively, La Tech will be facing a solid Miami defense, and trust me, I am no fan of J'Mar Smith over the years, but their numbers aren't bad, ranking 33rd in yards per play, and that's including 2 games that Smith and his top receiver were suspended and the backup did absolutely nothing. Skip Holtz has a great record as a dog, so he'll be in his element here. Miami is a bit of a wild card, but they've shown loads of evidence of incompetence in spots like these.
 
Good Lord, the play calling for BYU in this game has been criminal. That 3rd down play, in which the game effectively ends if BYU gets two yards, was an abomination.
 
For 29 minutes in the second half, Hawaii had a grand total of about 10 yards and 1 first down. BYU had the ball in Hawaii territory against an absolutely helpless defense the entire half and scored 10 points. They should have won that game by double digits yet found a way to lose. When it rains it pours my friends.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
For 29 minutes in the second half, Hawaii had a grand total of about 10 yards and 1 first down. BYU had the ball in Hawaii territory against an absolutely helpless defense the entire half and scored 10 points. They should have won that game by double digits and found a way to lose. When it rains it pours my friends.
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It was simply inexplicable sir. I have to be honest, I watched BYU's last regular season game and it was pathetic. I stayed off the game. But, what I saw tonight in 2d half was inexplicable
 
Why not go for 1-20 this bowl season!!! Here's another one to fade:

8. Quick Lane Bowl: Eastern Michigan +11 v Pitt: First of all, EMU is one of the top teams in the country when catching points (21-8 overall and 17-4 away from home). Second, Pitt hasn't beaten anyone by more than 10 points all year. Not Ohio when they outgained them by 260 yards, not Delaware when they outgained them by 271 yards, not Georgia Tech, not Syracuse, not Duke, nobody. Their QB Kenny Pickett, though he has made some plays this year, had a 10/9 ratio, but he led Pitt's offense to 104th in the country in yards per play (and 120th in yards per point, indicating even weaker efficiency), 121st in rushing and 109th in yards per pass attempt. EMU certainly will have their work cut out for them against the Pitt front 7, but QB Mike Glass averaged 8.1 yards per attempt and the EMU offense was 36th in yards per play nationally. Pitt is unlikely to light up the scoreboard against anyone, and their late season swoon, which included a 26-19 loss to a BC team that was leaking oil, rewarded them with a trip to sunny Detroit to play a nondescript MAC team. I'll take 11 against an unmotivated team with an inefficient offense in a game that will likely feature a wide open back door at worst.
 
Br@ssknux said:
For 29 minutes in the second half, Hawaii had a grand total of about 10 yards and 1 first down. BYU had the ball in Hawaii territory against an absolutely helpless defense the entire half and scored 10 points. They should have won that game by double digits yet found a way to lose. When it rains it pours my friends.
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I feel horrid for BYU backers. The 3rd and 2 call after TWO timeouts ... Wow ...
 
All that bring said, the pre Christmas bowls are tough. Just keep doing your thing and it will turn around. I agree on the LT play. No opinion here in the D but will root for emu.
 
B.A.R. said:
I feel horrid for BYU backers. The 3rd and 2 call after TWO timeouts ... Wow ...
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No doubt. They ran a play that might have been the only possible play that Hawaii's shit defense could have defended. Right handed QB rolling left to the short side of the field throwing to a receiver 4 yards behind the line of scrimmage with all momentum going backwards. Genius. Even if he catches the ball he gets tackled 5 yards short of the sticks. Any simple play action bootleg and Wilson would probably still be running. It might have been the worst play call I can remember, and that's saying something.
 
B.A.R. said:
All that bring said, the pre Christmas bowls are tough. Just keep doing your thing and it will turn around. I agree on the LT play. No opinion here in the D but will root for emu.
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Yes!! How about this: We close the book on the pre Christmas Bowls, take the 1-5 beatdown and start with a clean slate for the after Christmas bowls??? (As if anyone gives a flying f*ck) lol
 
Br@ssknux said:
Yes!! How about this: We close the book on the pre Christmas Bowls, take the 1-5 beatdown and start with a clean slate for the after Christmas bowls??? (As if anyone gives a flying f*ck) lol
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I'm in. I started 3-0 then lost my side n TT combo with appy St so have a sour taste myself...never got involved tonight ... Leaned your way tbh... Fresh start on Thursday. Lfg...
 
Br@ssknux said:
Yes!! How about this: We close the book on the pre Christmas Bowls, take the 1-5 beatdown and start with a clean slate for the after Christmas bowls??? (As if anyone gives a flying f*ck) lol
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I care for many reasons, not the least of which is you are helpful to me and all of us. Merry Christmas
 
You had the correct side. That's all we can control. I used to hate that kind of loss but this year I was rarely on the right side and found that the tough loss when you have the right investment is actually far easier to handle. At least your opinion was validated on some level.

Devil's advocate on EMU and Latech. With EMU, I cannot figure out how they score and I cannot figure out how they stop Pitt other than Pitt coaching or execution. And my concern with Latech is that a loss in this game represents a step backward after the coaching move for Miami Fl. While clear to me that this season was a step backward for Miami regardless of this game result, a loss here would just be a shockingly bad season. And they were humiliated by a team in that conference so not sure they won't be interested. Outside chance Canes just suck though.
 
RetroVK said:
You had the correct side. That's all we can control. I used to hate that kind of loss but this year I was rarely on the right side and found that the tough loss when you have the right investment is actually far easier to handle. At least your opinion was validated on some level.

Devil's advocate on EMU and Latech. With EMU, I cannot figure out how they score and I cannot figure out how they stop Pitt other than Pitt coaching or execution. And my concern with Latech is that a loss in this game represents a step backward after the coaching move for Miami Fl. While clear to me that this season was a step backward for Miami regardless of this game result, a loss here would just be a shockingly bad season. And they were humiliated by a team in that conference so not sure they won't be interested. Outside chance Canes just suck though.
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Merry Christmas VK! Good points, and those are fears for sure.

As for EMU/Pitt, the matchup reminds me a bit of the Pitt/Ohio game. I watched that game since I had a Ohio +7 ticket and suffered through a complete domination by Pitt. Despite all that, I almost covered anyway with a backdoor. EMU and Ohio are pretty similar, and the venue and motivational situation I think might give EMU more juice. Glass moves the ball ok. It's now up to 13. The way things have been going, Pitt will probably just steamroll them, but I took a chance that they will continue on their season long trend and avoid doing something they haven't done once this year.

As for Miami, I'm just assuming Diaz in incapable of motivation in a tough scenario. but again, the way things have been going.......
 
RetroVK said:
Merry Christmas Br@ss. Have you looked at the Tulane USM game yet?
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I did look at it. Wondering what you think as well. Here's my take:

At about a TD, I think I might lean to USM, although Tulane is much better than most of the teams on USM's schedule and certainly better than anyone USM beat. Defensively, USM has been torched by good passing attacks but has not been hammered in the running game, which is more of Tulane's forte. Tulane will certainly score on them, but they'll probably have to throw it some to do it. Assuming our boy Jack is healthy, USM has an effective passing game, and he'll be able to stand back there and be comfortable because USM can protect and Tulane didn't provide hardly any pressure from their front. Fundamentally I have it pretty even, but Tulane played a much tougher schedule, so not sure how USM will respond to them. At this point if it's a TD or more I'd have to take the points.
 
9. Pinstripe Bowl: Michigan State -3.5 v Wake Forest: Typically, I'm not a fan of laying points with Mark Dantonio teams, but that rule usually is most prevalent when the Spartans are laying double digits. I would have like to have gotten 3, but all of my outs are at -120 even at 3.5, so I'll have to live with this. My opinion on this game has a lot to do with the difference in schedules. When you simply line these teams up side by side and look at the raw numbers, Wake looks like a play. However, when you dig deeper, you'll find that Wake will be stepping up compared to what they're used to, while MSU will be dropping in class a bit. Most of the defenses Wake has faced have been mediocre to weak, save for their games against Clemson and Virginia Tech. For all their troubles this year, MSU still ranked 22nd in yards per play against, 13th against the run and 34th in yards per pass attempt. Other than Clemson and possibly Va Tech, this is probably the best defense the Deacs will have played this year, and they were thoroughly thrashed by Clemson and VT. They certainly won't be able to run it against the Spartans, and their ability to pass will be hampered by MSU's pass rush once it becomes evident that they don't have to respect the run. On the flip side, MSU's offense has already seen Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan's defenses this year, and Wake's D can only dream to match up with those squads. When MSU faced lower echelon defenses similar to Wake's, Lewerke was able to move the ball, throwing for more than 300 against Illinois and Indiana, and you can actually make a case that even both of those defenses are better than Wake's. As long as MSU doesn't have a turnover party(which is a concern for them), I think their offense will be able to move the ball. As I mentioned earlier, I would never want to lay significant points with Dantonio, but 3.5 is doable. It's a good matchup for the Spartans IMO.
 
Just a terrible performance by Miami, VK. All the Canes in the NFL must be calling for his head. Not a fan at all of Diaz so I'm glad to see it. Also, there's some major karma at work here because Diaz's dad is the former mayor of Miami who many claim benefited from the demolition of the old Orange Bowl and construction of that abomination of a taxpayer funded Marlins stadium. Old school Cane fans believe the Orange Bowl demolition is the leading reason why the Canes have never and likely will never get back to their glory days. I hope they launch Diaz, though as you point out, the contract situation might make it painful.
 
10. Holiday Bowl: USC +2 v Iowa (you can buy it to 3 for -125, but i'm staying with +2 at -105)I'm taking a chance here because Ferentz is usually money when in a short favorite role (I think I heard he's covered 13 in a row as a favorite of 3 or less), but I don't like the matchup here for the Hawkeyes. First of all, the Trojan weakness is in their run defense, and Iowa has struggled to run the ball all year. Iowa is predictably stingy on defense, but I don't think they've faced a pass offense even close to as good as this Kedon Slovis led Trojan attack. Slovis has torched some very good defenses, including piling up 400 plus on both Cal and Arizona State in the final third of the season. I'm not sure Iowa's defense has the speed to stick with receivers like Michael Pittman, and frankly, I still can't erase that memory of Stanford completely exposing Iowa's lack of speed the last time they were in California. Ultimately, Big Ten teams very seldom travel well to the west coast, and I think Slovis will give Iowa a lot of problems here. I'll take the points.
 
11. Cheez-It Bowl: Air Force -2.5 v Washington State: Here's one that if Mike Leach finds a way to motivate his team and out tough Air Force to snag a victory, I'll step back and doff my cap to him, because there is absolutely nothing in his past and nothing in Air Force's track record that indicates that scenario is possible. Wazzou had by all accounts a terrible year. Leach had to rip into his team several times, and their defense, after a few years of competence which led to some nice seasons, has reverted back to helplessness. They rank 123rd in yards per play, 107th against the run and 125th against the pass. You might suggest that the pass defense numbers are irrelevant given that AirForce is a running team, but the Falcons can certainly throw it when necessary, and they rank #1 in the country in yards per pass attempt. The Cougs will certainly get their yards and Anthony Gordon will probably complete 35+ passes, but this Air Force offense will run circles around the Cougar D. I can't imagine watching this game holding a WAZZOU ticket...it will probably resemble Chinese water torture as Air Force converts their 10th 3rd down in 11 tries.
 
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