Bowl Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

i don’t even think it arguable king will be the 2nd best qb ucf has seen all year and their best corner opted out
I would venture to guess that Will Howard, Jason Bean, Greene (WVU) and Dillon Gabriel are all better than Haynes King. I simply don't think the ACC is all that strong. We saw what Texas Tech did to Cal. I think the Big 12 will perform pretty well in these bowl games. Means a ton to UCF and they have some momentum. I think the biggest key is that Georgia Tech is giving up 226 yds per game on the ground at 5.4 yds per carry. Not exactly sure how they can handle RJ Harvey & Plumlee.
 
Lmao. Not a chance and I’ve said a bunch the acc was way down. The big 12 was watered down trash tho, so much so a awful okie state team made the champ game: that screams how awful big 12 was. I know I need to look at hoops but cmon w this crazy talk.
Not sure what your issue is with the Big 12 but I guess we will see how that plays out over the bowl season. Best of luck this season and always enjoy the banter.
 
Not sure what your issue is with the Big 12 but I guess we will see how that plays out over the bowl season. Best of luck this season and always enjoy the banter.

I have no issue but any conf where okie st makes the championship game isn’t all that strong! That was not a good team. Big 12 fine. They have lot of middle the pack teams who can rise up any given day but not like they don’t have bunch of bad teams and are totally lacking qbs also. Seriously where are the qbs who scare you throwing the ball?
 
I would venture to guess that Will Howard, Jason Bean, Greene (WVU) and Dillon Gabriel are all better than Haynes King. I simply don't think the ACC is all that strong. We saw what Texas Tech did to Cal. I think the Big 12 will perform pretty well in these bowl games. Means a ton to UCF and they have some momentum. I think the biggest key is that Georgia Tech is giving up 226 yds per game on the ground at 5.4 yds per carry. Not exactly sure how they can handle RJ Harvey & Plumlee.

I don’t think acc was strong either. Very down year for them. No scout in the country would take those big 12 qbs from anyplace but Ou and texas over king who was very highly thought of coming out of high school. Although the wvu kid intrigued me right now king the better thrower.
 
I think most of these games are better to play in-game after watching a few series

Typically. But UTSA came out comatose and looked like it was going to get run into the ground down 14-0. It ended up outscoring Marshall 35-3 to end the game.

Same with Tech that was doing a little sleepwalking and down early. Then it seemingly flipped a switch and completely undressed Cal.

These crap bowls are just all over the place and almost to a place where you just watch, and watch only.
 
Typically. But UTSA came out comatose and looked like it was going to get run into the ground down 14-0. It ended up outscoring Marshall 35-3 to end the game.

Same with Tech that was doing a little sleepwalking and down early. Then it seemingly flipped a switch and completely undressed Cal.

These crap bowls are just all over the place and almost to a place where you just watch, and watch only.
Hard to argue with this, yet here I am.
 
7. Camelia Bowl: Northern Illinois +3 v Arkansas State: Ever since Jaylen Raynor was installed at QB for the red Wolves, Butch Jones went from kind of a laughingstock to coach of a team that was suddenly competitive in the Sun Belt. Raynor was and is a heck of a story, a true Freshman that came in and electrified the ASU offense. The ended 6-6, but that 6-4 finish was a little misleading. Their wins were against Stony Brook, UMass, Southern Miss, La Monroe, LaLa(not bad) and Texas State, the last one by a 77-31 score. In that game however, they were actually outgained by 100+ yards by the Bobcats, they just benefitted from a slew of turnovers. NIU actually matches up well against the Red Wolves here in my opinion. From a strength of schedule perspective the teams are about even, but NIU was good defensively this year, especially against the pass(9th), which is where Raynor really got things done this year. NIU struggled against the run, but that is not ASU's bread and butter on offense. NIU ranks 9th in yards per pass attempt against and they should have a major edge in the running game on offense, as ASU ranked 109th in yards per rush attempt against and running the ball is NIU's modus operandi on offense. ASU was pretty piss poor on defense no mater how you frame it. They were 109th in yards per play, couldn't get pressure on the QB and couldn't get off the field on 3rd down. NIU will miss their all MAC center, but hopefully they practiced snaps with the new guy. I trust Hammock to be able to run it, since that's his forte. Their top WR and return guy Trayvon Rudolph was originally in the portal but came back, which probably bodes well for the culture and motivation for NIU. I think both teams will be motivated, but I'll take the 3 points with the better defense an the better running game. I actually have NIU as the better team on paper in a lot of areas in this one, so the FG looks good here.
 
8. Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force +1.5 v James Madison: The easy narrative in this game is to take the service academy in bowls(especially the ARMED FORCES BOWL) as Air Force(7-2), Navy (6-2) and Army (4-2) are a combined 17-6 ATS in bowls since 2010. There are a lot of reasons for that, but the most comforting for me is that you never have to worry about motivation or effort from a team like Air Force. IN this one they're getting a short number from JMU, and it's falling as you could buy up a 3 a couple days ago. JMU is a great story and you would think they'll be super motivated because this will be their first bowl game and they had to get special dispensation to get in one. However, HC Curt Cignetti is off to Indiana and he's bringing along more than half of his staff. Also, JMU has a slew of guys in the transfer portal, including QB Jordan McCloud. Mc Cloud and others are saying they are going to play despite being in the portal, but that's hard to trust. I'm going to work under the assumption that they do play, and even in that case, I like Air Force here. The falcons obviously were leaking jet fuel down the stretch, but it's a good bet that they'll have QB Zac Larrier back for this one, and their offense was highly efficient for most of the year. I think we can count on a solid game from them, and the defense was solid this year as well. My major problem with the Dukes is two fold. First, you can say you're motivated all you want, but when you're one foot out the door and looking for other opportunities, I question that. Also, JMU has had to actually hire part time assistants for this game because they are so short handed after Cignetti's departure. Can you think of a worse team to be preparing for with a temporary staff of people you brought in off the street than Air Force? I can't either. I trust Calhoun and the Falcons here, and although it's really hard not to back the Dukes whenever possible, I can see them struggling here. Also, don't forget that the Dukes played MWC also ran Utah State when they were at full strength and barely escaped Logan with a win. I like the Falcons here.
 
Brass - BOL on the bowls and Happy Holidays! AF gutted me on my RSW bet by losing 4 straight at the EOY. Agree Larrier makes all the difference for their offense, thought they were really humming while he was healthy and he is so surehanded and crafty running the option. I find myself really liking AF in this game as well especially with the coaching situation for JMU.
 
Brass - BOL on the bowls and Happy Holidays! AF gutted me on my RSW bet by losing 4 straight at the EOY. Agree Larrier makes all the difference for their offense, thought they were really humming while he was healthy and he is so surehanded and crafty running the option. I find myself really liking AF in this game as well especially with the coaching situation for JMU.
Thanks Timmy! BOL to you as well. Calhoun is also crafty when it comes to who's playing...hopefully Larrier plays. I've heard he should be back but you never know.
 
I don’t think acc was strong either. Very down year for them. No scout in the country would take those big 12 qbs from anyplace but Ou and texas over king who was very highly thought of coming out of high school. Although the wvu kid intrigued me right now king the better thrower.
Yep, both were pretty bad. Big 12 gonna be way down without Texas and OU. Wish Fickell would’ve stayed at UC. He would’ve had the best team in the big 12 next season. Satterfield is so bad. Looks like the ACC is done btw. FSU most likely to the SEC. Crazy times.
 
Yep, both were pretty bad. Big 12 gonna be way down without Texas and OU. Wish Fickell would’ve stayed at UC. He would’ve had the best team in the big 12 next season. Satterfield is so bad. Looks like the ACC is done btw. FSU most likely to the SEC. Crazy times.
And b12 loading up as a basketball conference while SEC and Big 10 battle over football will look genius
 
And b12 loading up as a basketball conference while SEC and Big 10 battle over football will look genius
Yep it’s gonna be fun. Also hope the SEC adds UNC for that reason. Already a good basketball league but could use another blue blood to pair with Kentucky. OU and Texas are decent in basketball at least.
 
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9. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State -1.5 v Georgia State: Going into the final week of the season, if these two teams faced off on a neutral, I would probably make Utah State a 1 or 2 point favorite. GSU started the year off at 6-1 but completely limped into the clubhouse, losing their final 5 to end up at 6-6. In 4 of those final 5 they weren't competitive, only managing a competitive effort in the finale at Old Dominion which they also found a way to lose. The problem down the stretch was the defense, and that was actually the case all year whenever they played an offense that had some skill. Their main strength is running the ball and to some extent throwing it, but both of those aspects will be diminished here because stud RB Marcus Carroll is off to Missouri, and their top WR(by a lot) Robert Lewis is headed to Auburn. Carroll was the main driver of the offense, as he ended up with 1350 yards rushing and 11 TDs. 3 of their starting offensive linemen, including 2 highest graded run and pass blockers are out for this game in addition to Carroll. Their backup RB KZ Adams is also in the portal, but he was pathetic carrying the ball averaging only 1.7 yards per carry on 35 attempts. That leaves nobody to run the ball, and we can't be optimistic about anyone that couldn't take carries away from Adams. That will leave most of the heavy lifting to Darren Grainger, but Robert Lewis was his security blanket throwing the ball(70 catches) and although Grainger ran the ball often, he isn't especially elusive when he runs. Utah State has been good in pass defense and coverage overall, so Georgia State is going to have to be good on the ground, and I just don't see how they'll be able to do that unless there's some great OL depth and some stud running backs hanging around on the intramural fields. Utah State will be playing Levi Williams at QB, and for a 3rd stringer, he's about as good as you'll find. He actually won the MVP in this bowl a couple years ago when he was at Wyoming, and he's played pretty well since he got into the lineup a couple games ago. The good news for him is that he'll be able to throw the ball against a terrible Georgia State secondary, and he's got a couple of super productive receivers in Jalen Royals(1,025 yards receiving) and Terrell Vaughn(82 catches) to throw to. Those two also combined for 24(!!) TDs so they know how to get in the end zone. Williams also hs pretty good wheels, and there's no question about his toughness because he's already announced that he's ditching his final year of eligibility for a chance to apply to the Navy SEALS. This is also a sort of home field advantage for the Aggies as they're familiar with the blue turf and much closer to Boise than GSU is. Gonna be cold for those Georgia kids too. If GSU finds a way to pull this off, pin a ribbon on the GSU coaching staff because it looks to me like they have a tall task in front of them.
 
68 Ventures Bowl: There's no doubt that Eastern Michigan is the weakest bowl team this year. They were outgained by more than 100 yards per game while playing a schedule ranked by Sagarin as 138th in the country. Having said that, this is a monumental amount of points, despite South Alabama playing this game on their home field. The Jaguars will be without Caulin Lacy, one of the best WRs in the country and a guy who accounted for almost 50% of the team's receiving yards (1316 yards on 91 catches). They'll also be without starting RB LaDamian Webb who ran for 1000 yards and scored 16 TDs. Starting QB Carter Bradley is very questionable, so they might be without their best receiver, their primary TD scorer and playing QB that managed only a 1/2 ratio in limited duty. Ultimately though, I can't recommend this EMU team to anyone right now even though Chris Creighton has a nice record as a dog. If forced to bet a side here, I would probably wait until the last minute and take the 18-18.5 or whatever that number will be.
 
Leaning toward no more official action for Saturday's games, but will determine that tomorrow AM.
 
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Thanks Timmy! BOL to you as well. Calhoun is also crafty when it comes to who's playing...hopefully Larrier plays. I've heard he should be back but you never know.
Yes he is, trying to get info on AF is like beating your head against the wall. I went on Twitter and sent the beat writer a question on Larrier earlier in the year out of desparation and he didn't answer me directly but did address it by mentioning that Larrier had been taken off the depth chart.
 
10. Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern +7(-115) v Utah: Now that getting 7 is reasonable, I decided to pull the trigger on the Cats. Utah has a ton of important guys out. They'll be missing their top two receivers, plus a couple others so I have no idea who is going to be the receiving targets for Bryson Barnes, who is in the transfer portal but was coaxed back to play in this game because they really don't have anyone else. They are also missing two way marvel Sione Vaki who opted out as well as their other starting safety Cole Bishop. They also lost several other good players on their defense late in the year. Offensively, I think they'll have RB JaQuinden Jackson and it looks like their line is intact, but Northwestern will probably be able to stack the box due to the issues Utah will have throwing the ball and the Cats were pretty good in pass defense this year anyway. I'm certainly skeptical about the also rans of the Big Ten this year, but the Cats should be about as motivated to play as anyone as interim coach David Braun got the full time gig and they have nobody sitting this game out. I think the Cats would be vulnerable against any team that has a lick of explosiveness, but they caught a break getting this Utah team that kind of resembles them as a grind it out squad that can't really throw it. I can't imagine Utah is excited for this one either. Northwestern has terrible rate metrics on offense, but they found a way to score when they needed to in order to rack up 7 wins. & is significant, so I think the Cats can find a way to keep this close and maybe even pull out the outright. They'll definitely be the more motivated squad it appears.
 
Not playing the nightcap in Hawaii. I capped it as a slight edge for SJSU assuming everyone is in, but Coastal has a bunch of guys out and really limped to the finish line in their last couple games. I was close to laying with SJSU because Kairee Robinson should be able to run wild on Coastal's run defense, but the Spartans pass D is terrible and you never know about back doors in these bowl games. 10 is just a little too much so I'm sitting that one out.
 
Quick Lane Bowl: Sitting this one out, but if these two teams were at full strength, I'd probably be betting Bowling Green. Minnesota is not built to run anyone out of the stadium, and BG's defense has been solid all year, and with playmakers as well. Unfortunately, most of them aren't playing in this one. The two most important players on the defense for BG are CB Jalen Huskey and DE Cashius Howell and both won't play since they're in the portal. Huskey has already committed to Maryland and Howell had 9.5 sacks so he's being courted by lots of teams. ON offense they relied on their running game, but their best runner Terrion Stewart broke his leg a few weeks ago and the backup TaRon Keith, who was also their leading receiver is also in the portal. Minesota will be missing QB Kaliakmanis and his backup, but he stunk anyway so they aren't missing much. RB Darius Taylor should be back for this one and he was a difference maker for the Gophers before he got hurt in the Iowa game, so I'd be surprised if he doesn't make a positive impact. That's about it for the positives for the Gophers. They didn't so much of anything well all year on either side of the ball and it looks like the impact guys they have on defense are leaning toward not playing in this game. I certainly would not lay 3.5 here, but there's too much missing from BG to provide a full throated endorsement of the Falcons unless the line went up at least a couple points.
 
First Responders Bowl: Can't really make a call on this one either. There's just too much variance for me with Texas State. I can see them really coming together and having a great performance, like they did in the bookend wins at Baylor to open the year and putting up 52 points on the way to beating South Alabama in the finale. I can also see them shitting the bed, like they did giving up 77 to Arkansas State or getting humbled at home by Troy. I'm skeptical of a first time bowl team coming in as a favorite, but Rice has also been a bit of a Jekyl and Hyde. They can play defense like a bunch of traffic cones, but they also can finish the season with back to back dominant efforts against FAU and an improving Charlotte team. I'd probably be akin to taking the points here, but I am not a fan of AJ Padgett behind center. In his stint after JT Daniels was put out to pasture, he was ineffective, and although Rice has a deference maker at WR in Luke McCaffrey, Padgett consistently put the ball in harm's way without the trade off of potential explosiveness if things hit right. No play for me.
 
Gonna write up UNLV and will have a play on them, but this line keeps going up so I'm going to see if I can snag a 14. Currently at 13. I'll keep an eye on it.
 
I think KU shreds on offense, will be looking TT. That Vegas D is something awful. Not sure about laying the 13.
 
Maiava is playing and has announced he's returning next season. That report that he was entering the portal was premature and lasted about 15 minutes on twitter.

Kansas D isn’t good but should be the best they’ve seen…
 
Typically. But UTSA came out comatose and looked like it was going to get run into the ground down 14-0. It ended up outscoring Marshall 35-3 to end the game.

Same with Tech that was doing a little sleepwalking and down early. Then it seemingly flipped a switch and completely undressed Cal.

These crap bowls are just all over the place and almost to a place where you just watch, and watch only.
Totals are safer than sides.
 
11. Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV +13 v Kansas: There's lot of reasons why I typically gravitate toward dogs, but he biggest reason is the way underdogs typically play with an additional shot of motivation or an extra chip on their shoulder. At the same time, in many cases bigger favorites can't help but relax a bit and come out complacent. Now, sometimes when one team is completely superior to the other on both sides of the ball, the added motivation doesn't matter because the dog knows they don't belong on the same field. Earlier in the bowl season we've seen some significant favorites that shit the bed, San Jose State being the most recent example, and they played a team capable of attacking them in various areas. Eastern Michigan was an example of a team that simply didn't belong on the field with South Alabama, and it showed. This is one of the few bowl games where what you have seen throughout the year is pretty close to what you're going to get. Both Kansas and UNLV have most if not all of their major players playing(as far as I can tell). Kansas lost one of the top OCs in the country in Andy Kotelnecki, but they brought in Jeff Grimes to take his place, and Grimes is already being integrated into the offense and will be running Leipold's scheme so I don't think there'll be a dropoff. Everyone is back for now for UNLV. I think both defenses are going to struggle to stop the opposing offenses, and I'll concede that UNLV's 123rd ranked pass defense will give up a shit load of yards to that Kansas passing attack. But Kansas is going to surrender a lot to UNLV as well as I don't know that they have anyone that can cover WR Ricky White(1394 yards). Also, Kansas has had a hell of a time getting off the field on 3rd down(110th) and ranks 112th in TD percentage in red zone. They are also at the bottom of FBS in finishing drives, meaning that teams that cross their 40 yard line almost always get points. UNLV is actually very good in those spots on defense, meaning that they were pretty good at holding teams to field goals after giving up yards. Also, UNLV has a major edge in special teams(#2 v #68 according to FEI) including at kicker, where KU converted under 70% of their field goals and UNLV has the 1st team All American kicker in Jose Pizano who went 25/27 on the year. Kansas is definitely a team you don't want to make a habit of fading, but 13 is too much in my opinion in a situation where I can point to several areas where UNLV has a significant edge over the Jayhawks.
 
As for the 27th, lots of uncertainty in all the bowls.

Military Bowl: Virginia Tech had a better season than many expected and they definitely finished extremely well with a complete blowout of arch rival Virginia on the road in the season finale. Tulane has a ton of guys out. Willie Fritz has taken the Houston job and most of of his assistants are coming with him, but they committed to coach Tulane in the bowl game. However, there might be some question there because I read that new Tulane coach Jon Sumrall asked a couple of the assistants to kindly cease their involvement. Among the guys out for Tulane are QB Pratt, all three of their top receivers and a bunch of guys on defense. Originally, backup Kai Horton was going to skip the bowl due to being in the portal, but reports are that he's been practicing, so he might play. VT isn't missing much, so as a result, they are a 10 point favorite in this one. I suppose there's a chance that Tulane is a total no show in this game, but there is no way I'm laying 10 with the Hokies here. We're talking about a 6-6 team against a team that despite having a lot of important pieces out, went 11-2. Although I was never high on Tulane this year, they've only been a dog once all year. On the flip side, VT hasn't been a favorite of this magnitude since their opener against Old Dominion. Although Tulane is missing a ton of guys, they still have some solid players on defense and RB Mehki Hughes and all but one of their offensive linemen on offense. VT was not very good stopping the run and they were terrible on both sides of the ball in the red zone. I lean to Tulane +10.5 here but the uncertainty of whether they are 100% bought in makes me afraid enough of a no show to grudgingly lay off this one. VT has pounded indifferent squads on a couple of occasions this year, so I can see the possibility, slight that it might be, that VT takes care of business. If Tulane is motivated, however, I don't think there's much chance VT is constructed to blow them out.
 
11. Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV +13 v Kansas: There's lot of reasons why I typically gravitate toward dogs, but he biggest reason is the way underdogs typically play with an additional shot of motivation or an extra chip on their shoulder. At the same time, in many cases bigger favorites can't help but relax a bit and come out complacent. Now, sometimes when one team is completely superior to the other on both sides of the ball, the added motivation doesn't matter because the dog knows they don't belong on the same field. Earlier in the bowl season we've seen some significant favorites that shit the bed, San Jose State being the most recent example, and they played a team capable of attacking them in various areas. Eastern Michigan was an example of a team that simply didn't belong on the field with South Alabama, and it showed. This is one of the few bowl games where what you have seen throughout the year is pretty close to what you're going to get. Both Kansas and UNLV have most if not all of their major players playing(as far as I can tell). Kansas lost one of the top OCs in the country in Andy Kotelnecki, but they brought in Jeff Grimes to take his place, and Grimes is already being integrated into the offense and will be running Leipold's scheme so I don't think there'll be a dropoff. Everyone is back for now for UNLV. I think both defenses are going to struggle to stop the opposing offenses, and I'll concede that UNLV's 123rd ranked pass defense will give up a shit load of yards to that Kansas passing attack. But Kansas is going to surrender a lot to UNLV as well as I don't know that they have anyone that can cover WR Ricky White(1394 yards). Also, Kansas has had a hell of a time getting off the field on 3rd down(110th) and ranks 112th in TD percentage in red zone. They are also at the bottom of FBS in finishing drives, meaning that teams that cross their 40 yard line almost always get points. UNLV is actually very good in those spots on defense, meaning that they were pretty good at holding teams to field goals after giving up yards. Also, UNLV has a major edge in special teams(#2 v #68 according to FEI) including at kicker, where KU converted under 70% of their field goals and UNLV has the 1st team All American kicker in Jose Pizano who went 25/27 on the year. Kansas is definitely a team you don't want to make a habit of fading, but 13 is too much in my opinion in a situation where I can point to several areas where UNLV has a significant edge over the Jayhawks.
Ugh - wish I bet this yesterday! I could have gotten 13.5, now showing 11
 
As for the 27th, lots of uncertainty in all the bowls.

Military Bowl: Virginia Tech had a better season than many expected and they definitely finished extremely well with a complete blowout of arch rival Virginia on the road in the season finale. Tulane has a ton of guys out. Willie Fritz has taken the Houston job and most of of his assistants are coming with him, but they committed to coach Tulane in the bowl game. However, there might be some question there because I read that new Tulane coach Jon Sumrall asked a couple of the assistants to kindly cease their involvement. Among the guys out for Tulane are QB Pratt, all three of their top receivers and a bunch of guys on defense. Originally, backup Kai Horton was going to skip the bowl due to being in the portal, but reports are that he's been practicing, so he might play. VT isn't missing much, so as a result, they are a 10 point favorite in this one. I suppose there's a chance that Tulane is a total no show in this game, but there is no way I'm laying 10 with the Hokies here. We're talking about a 6-6 team against a team that despite having a lot of important pieces out, went 11-2. Although I was never high on Tulane this year, they've only been a dog once all year. On the flip side, VT hasn't been a favorite of this magnitude since their opener against Old Dominion. Although Tulane is missing a ton of guys, they still have some solid players on defense and RB Mehki Hughes and all but one of their offensive linemen on offense. VT was not very good stopping the run and they were terrible on both sides of the ball in the red zone. I lean to Tulane +10.5 here but the uncertainty of whether they are 100% bought in makes me afraid enough of a no show to grudgingly lay off this one. VT has pounded indifferent squads on a couple of occasions this year, so I can see the possibility, slight that it might be, that VT takes care of business. If Tulane is motivated, however, I don't think there's much chance VT is constructed to blow them out.
Great stuff here. I’ve sat out most bowl games so far and this is exactly the situation with this game as you put so well.

That said I’ll probably take the 10.5 and ML some for shits too
 
Great stuff here. I’ve sat out most bowl games so far and this is exactly the situation with this game as you put so well.

That said I’ll probably take the 10.5 and ML some for shits too
Yeah, I'm waiting to see if it keeps going up. I might bite at 11. That's the only side I'm considering. Thanks as always Twink.
 
12. Duke's Mayo Bowl: West Virginia -6.5 v North Carolina: There's lots of reasons to consider doing it though. I think the casual fan, if asked to compare these two teams would probably say that UNC had the better year. In reality they both ended up 8-4 and I actually have these two rated almost even based on their season results when you match them up unit by unit. There's a big difference in who is playing in this game however, because a lot of the guys responsible for UNC's positives are not playing, most notably All American QB Drake Maye. I happen to think Maye is responsible for almost all of their good numbers, especially their great results on 3rd down. Backup Conner Harrell will start and we don't have much data to go on with him. They'll also be without 4 of their top 6 pass catchers, not notably Tez Walker who made a huge difference when he became eligible in the middle of the year and led the team in receiving yards. Defensively UNC wasn't great, and they're missing some of their guys, but enough will play to keep them looking about how they looked throughout the season. That's not necessarily good because West Virginia has most of their guys playing and their bread and butter is running the ball, which UNC struggles to stop. Garrett Greene has always been a good runner, but he averaged almost 9 yards per attempt this year as well, so the result was a balanced offense that ended up 33rd in overall yards per play. WV wasn't great on defense, but I don't know that I trust this UNC coaching staff to coach up Harrell to make a big difference in this one. I also suspect WV to be the more motivated team. They overachieved, and played with a chip on their shoulder all year. On the flip side, UNC lost of their last 6 and the 2 wins were by a FG at home against Duke and over the mighty Campbell Fighting Camels. They staggered to the finish line with back to back losses to Clemson and NC State, with the previously scattershot NC State offense piling up 500 yards in the process. I trust the mindset of West Virginia a lot more than I do Mack Brown and the Tar Heels, especially without their unquestioned best players. Not a huge fan of laying almost a TD, but UNC could lay a total egg here.
 
12. Duke's Mayo Bowl: West Virginia -6.5 v North Carolina: There's lots of reasons to consider doing it though. I think the casual fan, if asked to compare these two teams would probably say that UNC had the better year. In reality they both ended up 8-4 and I actually have these two rated almost even based on their season results when you match them up unit by unit. There's a big difference in who is playing in this game however, because a lot of the guys responsible for UNC's positives are not playing, most notably All American QB Drake Maye. I happen to think Maye is responsible for almost all of their good numbers, especially their great results on 3rd down. Backup Conner Harrell will start and we don't have much data to go on with him. They'll also be without 4 of their top 6 pass catchers, not notably Tez Walker who made a huge difference when he became eligible in the middle of the year and led the team in receiving yards. Defensively UNC wasn't great, and they're missing some of their guys, but enough will play to keep them looking about how they looked throughout the season. That's not necessarily good because West Virginia has most of their guys playing and their bread and butter is running the ball, which UNC struggles to stop. Garrett Greene has always been a good runner, but he averaged almost 9 yards per attempt this year as well, so the result was a balanced offense that ended up 33rd in overall yards per play. WV wasn't great on defense, but I don't know that I trust this UNC coaching staff to coach up Harrell to make a big difference in this one. I also suspect WV to be the more motivated team. They overachieved, and played with a chip on their shoulder all year. On the flip side, UNC lost of their last 6 and the 2 wins were by a FG at home against Duke and over the mighty Campbell Fighting Camels. They staggered to the finish line with back to back losses to Clemson and NC State, with the previously scattershot NC State offense piling up 500 yards in the process. I trust the mindset of West Virginia a lot more than I do Mack Brown and the Tar Heels, especially without their unquestioned best players. Not a huge fan of laying almost a TD, but UNC could lay a total egg here.
Agree with most. I was at the game last year when everyone thought unc would win and Gamecocks beat up on em pretty bad. Inflated line due to where it is being played also IMHO
 
Holiday Bowl: Despite this being usually one of the most fun bowls to watch every year, I really have no interest in betting this game. After watching Jack Plummer bumble around a couple times this year, I have no interest in relying on him to cover more than a TD without 2 of his best weapons (Thrash and RB Jordan). Isaac Guerendo should so fine, but as bad as USC's defense is, I can't rely on Plummer. Also, there's enough high level players playing for USC (Zach Branch, Austin Jones, etc) to where they might have some explosiveness even with the backup playing for USC. I actually have Louisville with several edges when I stack these teams up, but I just don't want to lay it with them. I might kick myself later, as I wouldn't bet USC, but I'm passing here.
 
13. Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State ML (-128) v Texas A&M: Well, I waited long enough to write this up to where the line has flipped to OSU and we're even at a bit of an expensive money line. This one is pretty straight to the point. At this point, we've lost count of the players not playing for A&M. Most of their team doesn't care to play in the aftermath of the Jimbo Fisher ouster, whatever's left of the coaching staff is half paying attention, and they're playing one of the best bowl coaches ATS in the past 15 years. Oklahoma State isn't missing hardly anyone outside of a couple receivers, and they'll have Ollie Gordon who is unquestionably the most important payer they have. If A&M wins this game, whoever makes the biggest contribution will probably be someone we have never heard of. Oklahoma State also has the revenge angle as they lost a very close one to the Aggies in this very bowl game 2 years ago. Trying not to overthink this one.
 
14. Fenway Bowl: SMU -10 v Boston College: When I handicap games, I like to line up each unit for the two teams and figure out edges in various categories. There are 5 categories I look at, each side of the ball for either team, so there are a total of 10 areas where I look for an edge. Very rarely does one team hold a 10-0 edge over another but there is in this one for SMU, and most of them aren't close. SMU played a very weak schedule, so there needs to be some schedule adjusted subjectivity to this, but even then, SMU has the edge everywhere. BC was bad on defense this year ranking in the 100's in pretty much every category, but I'm not convinced that a Kevin Jennings led SMU offense is going to run roughshod over them. I am convinced that the SMU defense is legit however. They played a weak schedule but they consistently shut down everyone they played, ranking 5th in yards per play, 12th against the run, 8th in yards per pass attempt allowed and 3rd on 3rd down. Thomas Castellanos can be tricky to stop in the run game, but he was mistake prone and SMU proved to be a very efficient defense who didn't get fooled. There shouldn't be any motivation issues here as both teams are playing largely intact from the season, and SMU will relish the chance to knock off a Power 5 team. They know a lot of ACC people weren't thrilled about them being invited into the league, so they'll be ready to show they belong. It might take awhile, but I think SMU will eventually run away with this one.
 
Pinstripe Bowl: I think Miami is a better team than Rutgers. If both teams were intact, I would have a hard time envisioning how Rutgers would move the ball on Miami either on the ground or through the air. But, as we know, both teams are not intact. I refuse to back Miami in this instance, as we've all seen this movie before. Miami shows up for a bow with no motivation and a more physical Big Ten team, or whoever, embarrasses them. It's enough to keep me off Miami, especially with the Cristobal involvement, but I can't justify forcing this Rutgers team into that bully role, usually played by a solid Wisconsin team. Rutgers isn't that. Gonna lay off that one.
 
15.Pop Tarts Bowl: NC State +2.5(-115) vs Kansas State: Usually K State isn't the kind of squad that gets decimated by transfers and opt outs, but they are this year. QB Will Howard is gone. Best RB Treshawn Ward is gone, as are WR Phillip Brooks TE Ben Sinnot. They also have several painful losses on defense and OC Colin Klein is off to Texas A&M. Defensively, K State is off one of the worst defensive performances in college football in awhile, a game in which they allowed 15 yards per play against Iowa State. I'm sure they'll have some sort of bounce back, but you have to question their motivation coming off a Big 12 title and with so many kids jumping ship on the program. NC State on the other hand has been red hot, with wins over Clemson, MIami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina among their last 5 games. Defensively they've been solid all year and their QB on defense Peyton Wilson is set to play. Brennan Armstrong is back behind center, and WR Kevin Concepcion has been a do-everything for the Pack over the past several weeks. All of momentum is with the Wolfpack here in my opinion. Doeren has pointed to getting to 10 wins, and this is their chance. I'll take the team who's on the roll and should be better motivated.
 
15.Pop Tarts Bowl: NC State +2.5(-115) vs Kansas State: Usually K State isn't the kind of squad that gets decimated by transfers and opt outs, but they are this year. QB Will Howard is gone. Best RB Treshawn Ward is gone, as are WR Phillip Brooks TE Ben Sinnot. They also have several painful losses on defense and OC Colin Klein is off to Texas A&M. Defensively, K State is off one of the worst defensive performances in college football in awhile, a game in which they allowed 15 yards per play against Iowa State. I'm sure they'll have some sort of bounce back, but you have to question their motivation coming off a Big 12 title and with so many kids jumping ship on the program. NC State on the other hand has been red hot, with wins over Clemson, MIami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina among their last 5 games. Defensively they've been solid all year and their QB on defense Peyton Wilson is set to play. Brennan Armstrong is back behind center, and WR Kevin Concepcion has been a do-everything for the Pack over the past several weeks. All of momentum is with the Wolfpack here in my opinion. Doeren has pointed to getting to 10 wins, and this is their chance. I'll take the team who's on the roll and should be better motivated.
I thought Peyton Wilson opted out?
 
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