Week 1 Write-Ups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Always enjoy your writeups. With you on Florida.

I see aTm is now -2x at a lot of places, but not where I have an account. You have a feeling for aTm/N Dame?

I'm seeing it right at 3 in most spots TL. I have had leans to A&M because I like Elko so much, but I don't know that their offense is going to have much success against this ND defense, which should be very good. Also, I think the Kyle field home field edge is totally overrated. Yeah they get up and yell and scream and want to win really bad, but they seldom do in big games there.

On the ND side, I don't like the reliance they are likely to have on Leonard due to the OL issues. If I could get a little more I might take the points since this looks like it'll come down to the wire, but I don't have enough faith in either offense to back either team. No play for me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Nice synopsis. Still no definitive pass rushing threats either for the Horns. Same thing that killed them against UW also makes them susceptible to passing attacks. Sarkisian will probably be pretty vanilla offensively in advance of next weekend.

Feels like a 44-17 type game.

I was thinking something like that. Maybe a few more points on each side.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Great stuff knux.....i have to admit I had no clue that Sluka went from HC to UNLV........good luck and have a year

Edit to add that I have very similar thoughts on Ward.....not high on him and think he disappoints overall this year...can be really bad at times...

Thanks Jimmy. Always good to see you!

 

[Br@ssknux]

UNLV looks like they moved to 3.5. Also see Colorado State at 35 now in a couple spots.

 

[Dollaz]

5. @Florida +2.5(BOL) v Miami: I got 3 on this game yesterday but now as I write it up, I can't find 3 anywhere so I'll use 2.5. We all know that Florida has a gauntlet of a schedule ahead of them, especially in the last month or so, but I think the spot here is pretty good for the Gators. A lot of people are high on Miami, but that's nothing new because people are high on Miami in the preseason every year. In the last 3 years they were ranked in the preseason or in the first week or two of the season and end up unranked. People are high on them this year mostly because of what they brought in through the transfer portal. They reportedly spent a fortune to win the Cam Ward sweepstakes to get him from Washington State, but Ward has been very up and down, and based on what he's done since he's gotten to Florida, I would take Graham Mertz in a choice between these two QBs. Ward is very streaky and mistake prone and has had complete stinkers on the road. Last year he turned the ball over 19 times himself via INT and lost fumbles. Considering the money Miami has spent on Ward and other transfers(including RB Damien Martinez who has made me lots of money), there is a lot of pressure on Cristobal and the team to compete for the playoff, and I think ALL the pressure is going to be on the Canes in this one. When you look at the win total for Florida and consider the expectations for Miami, this seems like a no brainer, but the line is where it is for a reason. As I mentioned, Graham Mertz has been very good at Florida, hitting 73% of his passes last year in the SEC with a 20/3 ratio. He won't be startled by this Miami defense. He also has better weapons on the outside. Elijah Badger comes in from Arizona State having hauled in 65 balls for almost 800 yards with one of the worst QB situations in the country. He also has old friend Chimre Dike from Wisconsin and speed merchant Eugene Wilson back after catching 60 balls as a true freshman last year. Florida has not been a home dog often, but they've covered 3 out of 4 when they have been and Miami has been an ATS wasteland under Cristobal (8-17 overall). As always when getting a small number, take those points rather than focusing on the ML because they are likely to matter. Should be a great atmosphere in the swamp. Ultimately, although I like some guys on Miami(Restrepo and Martinez especially), there's a lot of gelling that has to happen with these transfers, and the pressure on the Canes might make a big difference in this one.

Gotta disagree on this one. I think Ward is gonna be a big upgrade over last years QB play. They are loaded at the skill positions.

You are right though, I feel like Miami feels like they have to win this game

 

[Dollaz]

6. Colorado State +34 @Texas: Maybe I'm a square but this one seems like too many points for me. Texas had major problems against good passing attacks last year and there remain a lot of question marks in the secondary this year. The combo of Brayden Fowler Nicolosi and Tory Horton is one of the best returning passing connections in the country as Horton had 96 catches for 1136 yards and 8 scores last year. Texas has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball but hey have to replace 2 of the best defensive linemen they've had in the past decade in Sweat and Murphy. Texas has a road game with Michigan on deck, so I doubt they'll be interested in putting a ton on tape. Ewers has a tendency to look quite pedestrian in games like this. 34 is a lot of points to cover against a team that has the potential to throw a few TDs on the board, and although this Ram defense won't scare anyone, they should be better than they were last year now that Norvell has had more time to get his system in place.

I like this one

 

[M.W.]

Peanut Head is 19-4-1 ATS at PSU when favored by a TD or more. (McMurphy)

Damn remarkable.

20-6-1 ATS last four seasons (9-1 last year). 44-24-2 overall in his tenure at Penn State.

 

[M.W.]

7. UNLV +3 @Houston: UNLV loses Freshman sensation QB Jordan Maiava(USC) from last year, but I think the real reason for UNLV's dynamite offensive performance last year was the go go offense of OC Brandon Marion, who to my surprise was not plucked by a bigger program. It also doesn't hurt that you have WR Ricky White who torched college football for 1483 receiving yards last year. Now they bring in two FCS QBs to take over, Matthew Sluka, a bruising runner from Holy Cross and Hahj-Malik Williams, who threw for 8200+ yards in 5 years at Campbell. Both were very accomplished in their careers, and both I believe can be very effective in Marion's offense, which like Andy Kotelnicki and troy Taylor's schemes, uses tricky pre snap motion. Houston brings in Willie Fritz and his DC Shiel Wood, both of whom I like, but it is going to be really hard for a group of kids learning a new system to take off the training wheels against this offense. Also, I think the personnel is a little mis matched for what Fritz likes to do offensively, which is run. He's got a dynamic athlete in Donavan Smith at QB, but he was prone to turnovers, and made a lot more losing plays than winning ones. Throw in the fact that UNLV has been money on the road, especially as a road dog (11-3) while Houston is 3-9 as a home favorite in their last 12 in the role. I like this UNLV staff, and I think whichever QB wins the job can be effective, especially with Ricky White (and Jacob De Jesus, who caught 60 balls last year) coming back. Now that this has gotten to a FG, I like the Rebs here.

The fact that OU is up next for the Cougars is also worth mentioning.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Nevada +8.5(Bet Rivers) @Troy: Can you believe another Mountain West team? This one's a bit out of chronological order. I realize that there's been some ATS data that says teams that played in week zero are at a disadvantage, but I think this is a little overboard. There was a major belief that Nevada would be one of the worst teams in the nation this year(much like New Mexico), but like New Mexico, Nevada has a coach who appears to know what he's doing in Jeff Choate. SMU was certainly not on their game in the opener in Reno last week, but there's no doubt that is a good team and the Wolf Pack hung with them to the end. They also held SMU to less than 3 yards per carry on the ground despite the Mustangs having 3 potential 1,000 yard rushers on their roster. The Wolf Pack also held their own offensively against what should be another great SMU defense. Now they travel to Troy, certainly not an easy trip for them into the humidity of the South, but this is not your older brother's Troy were talking about here. Jon Sumrall is gone to Tulane, and he was replaced by Gerad Parker, the former ND OC. Unfortunately for Parker, there is NOBODY returning from the solid Troy teams of the past several years. They return only 4 starters and nobody in the skill positions. Only 1 of their top 9 tacklers returns. Goose Crowder comes in to play QB, but he's been around for several years at West Virginia without getting any playing time. Pretty much every position group looks to have a significant drop in play. I don't think there's much of a talent difference if any between these teams considering some of the Power 4 talent that Nevada picked up in the transfer portal. It's new systems on both sides of the ball for a completely overturned roster and a first year coach, and they're laying 8.5 against a team that proved they can compete against what most people are predicting will be a top 4-5 team in the ACC. If Parker has them humming enough to dispose of Nevada here, I'll tip my cap, but I think it'll be a tall order.

Parker did not do Troy any favors with some of his decisions late, but this cover wasn't in much doubt after Nevada overcame a slow start. They look pretty competent to me and the god vibes that they exhibited against SMU were there again. Jeff Choate looks pretty good.

 

[STEED]

GL bud

 

[Br@ssknux]

The fact that OU is up next for the Cougars is also worth mentioning.

Good call.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I'll have a couple more but wanted to comment on a few that I considered but laid off.

Vandy's ATS record is so bad at home that they are probably about the only team I would have passed on against VT as a significant favorite. I mentioned this earlier, but i think VT is a bit of a paper tiger. They did all their damage against weak teams last year, including the bowl game when Fritz left and Tulane didn't bother showing up. I think they might continue to be a consideration as a dog, but they are overvalued and certainly look like a fade as a favorite to me.

Thought about Clemson but not under 14 and that line never got high enough for me.

Was very close to taking the points with Miami(OH), based on Northwestern's ineptitude as a home favorite, but the line isn't high enough for NW to be in that mind space to get tripped up. Miami would have to physically beat them, which is possible, but I passed.

I can see people liking Indiana because Cignetti could really use a dominant performance after all the shit he's been talking. They also have a ton of what appears to be useful transfers, and JMU would be favored to blow out FIU if Cignetti and all those guys stayed at JMU and FIU was on their schedule. However, at 25, IU could get the performance they're looking for and still not cover that. Under 21 I would have considered, but it's too many at 23 and now it's gone to 25.

Newcomer Kennesaw State looks to be fighting it out with Temple for the worst team in FBS. They have no QB whatsoever on the roster, but UTSA is a bit of an unknown, and 24 is too much for me.

I probably should have taken the 13 with Georgia Southern. Tough spot for Boise with Oregon on deck and Helton has been solid with his offenses since he got there. I just don't want to fade the combo of Dirk Koetter and Ashton Jeanty on the Boise side.

The Bama spread got too high. I like them this year though. No bet on DeBoer is a bad bet. Most are smart bets.

Still thinking about Hawaii +14, but UCLA has been a favorite of mine to back, and just because Foster looked like a dolt at Big Ten Media days is not good enough reason to assume that they would look foolish on the island. Having said that, there's value because of how bad Hawaii looked last week, and I think they intentionally held back in that game. I wish Hawaii's top receiver McBride was playing. I'd probably pull the trigger if he was in at this number.

Georgia State should be an auto play due to GT's complete refusal to have any competence as a home favorite, but there is so much uncertainty with GSU with a new staff and all new players that I had to lay off. Line also fell under 21, so no play there.

 

[Br@ssknux]

A couple observations: Colorado State might be the worst team I’ve seen so far this year. They’ve completely embarrassed themselves. There are no signs of life there.

Florida is choosing to not cover anyone, and I think that is a bad strategy. Also, my insistence that Graham Mertz is good should have everyone questioning everything I say going forward.

 

[pressitup]

Also, my insistence that Graham Mertz is good should have everyone questioning everything I say going forward.

everyone gets a pass
pretty sure you have equity built up to cover it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. USC +4.5 (Bet Rivers) v LSU: This is a matchup of two teams who last year could score on anyone but may have been the two worst defenses among "good" teams in the Power 5(at the time). LSU loses 3 first round picks in Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and their two starting wide receivers, Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas who both went in the top 20ish picks. They bring back the offensive line mostly intact, but OC Mike Denbroeck is gone to Notre Dame, so they'll have to transition to Co-OCs which will be a process. Garrett Nussmeier has some experience but not as a full time starter and he won't have anywhere close to the explosiveness to work with that Daniels had. Both of these teams need vast improvement on the defensive side, but I think USC is better equipped. D'Anton Lynn worked wonders last year at UCLA, and USC was very smart to scoop him up. USC's tackling was abysmal, but he has had no issue with his tacklers at his previous stops so I expect major improvement there. They also brought in Matt Entz, North Dakota State's former head coach to coach linebackers, and he'll be involved heavily in the game plan. On the flip side, LSU threw a bag at Mizzou DC Blake Baker, but if you watched Mizzou last year you know they shit the bed on defense on a number of occasions, so I am not 100% sure of this decision. There's no doubt any offense run by Lincoln Riley will result in a lot of points, and I'm not sold that a few stopgaps and an expensive if not effective DC will be enough to make a major difference. If not, Moss and company will be ringing the cash register in Vegas and I think Lynn, Entz and co will positively affect the Trojans defense in a way that Baker can. I like USC's offense and defense better than LSU's so I'll take the points with the team that also has a much shorter commute.

Both of these teams looked WAY WAY better on defense, and you could see the major impact Lynn has made on USC in how they tackled, which we kind of figured would happen. How bad is Alex Grinch? Yikes, and you can say the same for Matt House on the other side. Both QBs were good enough, although Nussmeier didn't go downfield all that much. Definitely a lot of value in as many as 4.5 points when all indications were that these teams were very similar.

 

[B.A.R.]

11. USC +4.5 (Bet Rivers) v LSU: This is a matchup of two teams who last year could score on anyone but may have been the two worst defenses among "good" teams in the Power 5(at the time). LSU loses 3 first round picks in Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and their two starting wide receivers, Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas who both went in the top 20ish picks. They bring back the offensive line mostly intact, but OC Mike Denbroeck is gone to Notre Dame, so they'll have to transition to Co-OCs which will be a process. Garrett Nussmeier has some experience but not as a full time starter and he won't have anywhere close to the explosiveness to work with that Daniels had. Both of these teams need vast improvement on the defensive side, but I think USC is better equipped. D'Anton Lynn worked wonders last year at UCLA, and USC was very smart to scoop him up. USC's tackling was abysmal, but he has had no issue with his tacklers at his previous stops so I expect major improvement there. They also brought in Matt Entz, North Dakota State's former head coach to coach linebackers, and he'll be involved heavily in the game plan. On the flip side, LSU threw a bag at Mizzou DC Blake Baker, but if you watched Mizzou last year you know they shit the bed on defense on a number of occasions, so I am not 100% sure of this decision. There's no doubt any offense run by Lincoln Riley will result in a lot of points, and I'm not sold that a few stopgaps and an expensive if not effective DC will be enough to make a major difference. If not, Moss and company will be ringing the cash register in Vegas and I think Lynn, Entz and co will positively affect the Trojans defense in a way that Baker can. I like USC's offense and defense better than LSU's so I'll take the points with the team that also has a much shorter commute.

Good analysis.

I've leaned LSU to win SU most of the summer but you also make some good points.

Definitely a great capping game for the rest of the season.

We'll have a small idea about all the new coordinaters.

 

[twinkie13]

11. USC +4.5 (Bet Rivers) v LSU: This is a matchup of two teams who last year could score on anyone but may have been the two worst defenses among "good" teams in the Power 5(at the time). LSU loses 3 first round picks in Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and their two starting wide receivers, Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas who both went in the top 20ish picks. They bring back the offensive line mostly intact, but OC Mike Denbroeck is gone to Notre Dame, so they'll have to transition to Co-OCs which will be a process. Garrett Nussmeier has some experience but not as a full time starter and he won't have anywhere close to the explosiveness to work with that Daniels had. Both of these teams need vast improvement on the defensive side, but I think USC is better equipped. D'Anton Lynn worked wonders last year at UCLA, and USC was very smart to scoop him up. USC's tackling was abysmal, but he has had no issue with his tacklers at his previous stops so I expect major improvement there. They also brought in Matt Entz, North Dakota State's former head coach to coach linebackers, and he'll be involved heavily in the game plan. On the flip side, LSU threw a bag at Mizzou DC Blake Baker, but if you watched Mizzou last year you know they shit the bed on defense on a number of occasions, so I am not 100% sure of this decision. There's no doubt any offense run by Lincoln Riley will result in a lot of points, and I'm not sold that a few stopgaps and an expensive if not effective DC will be enough to make a major difference. If not, Moss and company will be ringing the cash register in Vegas and I think Lynn, Entz and co will positively affect the Trojans defense in a way that Baker can. I like USC's offense and defense better than LSU's so I'll take the points with the team that also has a much shorter commute.

I have to disagree on Baker. And I’m not saying at all that LSU defense on paper looks like anything typical of an LSU defense that you and I would remember of days past.
Matt House made Harold Perkins invisible.

Omar Speights came as a transfer LB. Kid looked completely lost. Couldn’t play.
Undrafted, as he shoulda been.
He’s gonna start for the Rams and had the one of, if not the highest rating for preseason LBs. That’s Matt House.

Kelly realized quickly how it is down here. Get the right coordinators…still not convinced Kelly is a great gameday coach but at least he’s putting the right people around him.
Should be a good one!

 

[Br@ssknux]

I have to disagree on Baker. And I’m not saying at all that LSU defense on paper looks like anything typical of an LSU defense that you and I would remember of days past.
Matt House made Harold Perkins invisible.

Omar Speights came as a transfer LB. Kid looked completely lost. Couldn’t play.
Undrafted, as he shoulda been.
He’s gonna start for the Rams and had the one of, if not the highest rating for preseason LBs. That’s Matt House.

Kelly realized quickly how it is down here. Get the right coordinators…still not convinced Kelly is a great gameday coach but at least he’s putting the right people around him.
Should be a good one!

No doubt they had to make a move on House, and they could have done a lot worse than Baker, no doubt. It's just usually when we're talking about the highest paid assistant in the country or whatever you're expecting the turnaround to be swift and severe, and Baker hasn't struck me as a guy that can do that. You make a great point about House though, and I'm sure anything resembling competence with the scheme might look like night and day, so I'll concede that. I agree with you and BAR though. This will be a very consequential game to inform us.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Good analysis.

I've leaned LSU to win SU most of the summer but you also make some good points.

Definitely a great capping game for the rest of the season.

We'll have a small idea about all the new coordinaters.

Great point. This might be the one cappers should be watching the closest all week because there is so much to learn about these two teams.

 

[Timh]

LSU does return a nice OL, but they will have to adjust to more pocket protection schemes with Nussmeier and their running game won't benefit from losing a dual threat like Daniels. LSU RB's are basically unproven and will need that OL to carve some holes for them. LSU defense very ? overall, with DL a perceived weakness. Feel like I trust USC offense to be able to produce against this defense and like the points. BOL.

 

[2daBank]

LSU does return a nice OL, but they will have to adjust to more pocket protection schemes with Nussmeier and their running game won't benefit from losing a dual threat like Daniels. LSU RB's are basically unproven and will need that OL to carve some holes for them. LSU defense very ? overall, with DL a perceived weakness. Feel like I trust USC offense to be able to produce against this defense and like the points. BOL.

Im
Not sure man. Brian Kelly a grade A asshoke but 1st rate coach, he made that Irish team what we saw last night end he getting world class athletes to play d at lsu and world class road graders. I feel like last year was amazing yo watch and cash prop fickets but that was Kelly just playing to strengths and letting kids see he can be fun? I expect this team is elite defensively, I expect they push usc around at point of attack and any rb they want goes off. I say all this and I have no clue what jaolened any offseason for either team! I just going off what I know bout very general ideas. I think early on lsu establishes physicality, I like the 1st half under cause I do get worried every sec game last few years a perfectly good under has 40 point 4ths. I like Lincoln and all but I never thought he was a great builder of interior line play and that how Kelly builds teams. I could be totally talking out my ass but physicality take the cake those big boys up front eat!! I wish I knew which lsu rb get the most carries cause id play 1st half under, lsu ats, lsu running back rush yards if I knew who was getting them

 

[2daBank]

If usc is better equipped to have a better d than brain Kelley at lsu my world just got flipped upside down cause Brian Kelly builds d’s in places that don’t have the talent close to all the lsu 1st rounders! Lincoln Riley hasn’t exactly built many defenses and usc ain’t played if in a long time!

 

[2daBank]

But I respect you guys a lot and I did no work this summer! So I could be really stupid here! Lol

 

[Timh]

Im
Not sure man. Brian Kelly a grade A asshoke but 1st rate coach, he made that Irish team what we saw last night end he getting world class athletes to play d at lsu and world class road graders. I feel like last year was amazing yo watch and cash prop fickets but that was Kelly just playing to strengths and letting kids see he can be fun? I expect this team is elite defensively, I expect they push usc around at point of attack and any rb they want goes off. I say all this and I have no clue what jaolened any offseason for either team! I just going off what I know bout very general ideas. I think early on lsu establishes physicality, I like the 1st half under cause I do get worried every sec game last few years a perfectly good under has 40 point 4ths. I like Lincoln and all but I never thought he was a great builder of interior line play and that how Kelly builds teams. I could be totally talking out my ass but physicality take the cake those big boys up front eat!! I wish I knew which lsu rb get the most carries cause id play 1st half under, lsu ats, lsu running back rush yards if I knew who was getting them

Not sure on lead back for LSU maybe Kaleb Jackson? Interesting you mentioned ND, I was extremely impressed with the positive progression of their young OL last night. They started out trying to get the edge too much imo, and AM sent the safeties up to really jam up the running game on the exterior. I kept thinking if they ran inside, they could get some ydg and then they started attacking there. Leonard really helped out the running game a lot, and was impressed with ND OL in 2h. I appreciate your point on SEC teams prob being better in the trenches but not sure I trust LSU d to be able to stop USC. Expect USC tackling to vastly improve, and also believe they have decided advtg on STs.

 

[B.A.R.]

11. USC +4.5 (Bet Rivers) v LSU: This is a matchup of two teams who last year could score on anyone but may have been the two worst defenses among "good" teams in the Power 5(at the time). LSU loses 3 first round picks in Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and their two starting wide receivers, Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas who both went in the top 20ish picks. They bring back the offensive line mostly intact, but OC Mike Denbroeck is gone to Notre Dame, so they'll have to transition to Co-OCs which will be a process. Garrett Nussmeier has some experience but not as a full time starter and he won't have anywhere close to the explosiveness to work with that Daniels had. Both of these teams need vast improvement on the defensive side, but I think USC is better equipped. D'Anton Lynn worked wonders last year at UCLA, and USC was very smart to scoop him up. USC's tackling was abysmal, but he has had no issue with his tacklers at his previous stops so I expect major improvement there. They also brought in Matt Entz, North Dakota State's former head coach to coach linebackers, and he'll be involved heavily in the game plan. On the flip side, LSU threw a bag at Mizzou DC Blake Baker, but if you watched Mizzou last year you know they shit the bed on defense on a number of occasions, so I am not 100% sure of this decision. There's no doubt any offense run by Lincoln Riley will result in a lot of points, and I'm not sold that a few stopgaps and an expensive if not effective DC will be enough to make a major difference. If not, Moss and company will be ringing the cash register in Vegas and I think Lynn, Entz and co will positively affect the Trojans defense in a way that Baker can. I like USC's offense and defense better than LSU's so I'll take the points with the team that also has a much shorter commute.

Good work

 

[2daBank]

Not sure on lead back for LSU maybe Kaleb Jackson? Interesting you mentioned ND, I was extremely impressed with the positive progression of their young OL last night. They started out trying to get the edge too much imo, and AM sent the safeties up to really jam up the running game on the exterior. I kept thinking if they ran inside, they could get some ydg and then they started attacking there. Leonard really helped out the running game a lot, and was impressed with ND OL in 2h. I appreciate your point on SEC teams prob being better in the trenches but not sure I trust LSU d to be able to stop USC. Expect USC tackling to vastly improve, and also believe they have decided advtg on STs.

From what I understand Irish schedule turns pretty easy and for Riley to be able to accomplish that vs the coach who knows him best working with way more talent than I’m sure he has ever had on a defense before. If Riley could help the offense get 17 points in 2nd half on that team look out everyone else. I’m not sure the Irish d proved much just cause I have no clue if the Aggies offense is any dang good, that said the defensive side the ball I don’t find to be a problem for this coaching staff and they looked like they were pretty damn fast overall for a Irish team.

Congrats you guys who took usc. Turns out I guess it didn’t matter who the main lsu back was since for some reason I won’t understand they never appeared very committed to running the ball. Even with them playing a totally different offense than I expected the under was never in doubt. Im still so pissed lsu didn’t take the fg to open game after the initial 7 min drive, you gotta fucjing take points there! That was such a horrible choice for so many reasons!?!? I wonder if that was the coaches call or one the calls made by a computer printout that says going for it gives them a 8% better chance or some garbage!! Don’t think the computer takes certain things into account (one of which being I woulda cashed lsu-2.5 1st half, lol) but it changes everything from that point forward not taking the 3! You

 

[2daBank]

Not sure on lead back for LSU maybe Kaleb Jackson? Interesting you mentioned ND, I was extremely impressed with the positive progression of their young OL last night. They started out trying to get the edge too much imo, and AM sent the safeties up to really jam up the running game on the exterior. I kept thinking if they ran inside, they could get some ydg and then they started attacking there. Leonard really helped out the running game a lot, and was impressed with ND OL in 2h. I appreciate your point on SEC teams prob being better in the trenches but not sure I trust LSU d to be able to stop USC. Expect USC tackling to vastly improve, and also believe they have decided advtg on STs.

From what I understand Irish schedule turns pretty easy and for Riley to be able to accomplish that vs the coach who knows him best working with way more talent than I’m sure he has ever had on a defense before. If Riley could help the offense get 17 points in 2nd half on that team look out everyone else. I’m not sure the Irish d proved much just cause I have no clue if the Aggies offense is any dang good, that said the defensive side the ball I don’t find to be a problem for this coaching staff and they looked like they were pretty damn fast overall for a Irish team.

Congrats you guys who took usc. Turns out I guess it didn’t matter who the main lsu back was since for some reason I won’t understand they never appeared very committed to running the ball. Even with them playing a totally different offense than I expected the under was never in doubt. Im still so pissed lsu didn’t take the fg to open game after the initial 7 min drive, you gotta fucjing take points there! That was such a horrible choice for so many reasons!?!? I wonder if that was the coaches call or one the calls made by a computer printout that says going for it gives them a 8% better chance or some garbage!! Don’t think the computer takes certain things into account (one of which being I woulda cashed lsu-2.5 1st half, lol) but it changes everything from that point forward not taking the 3!

Plus I really wanted to cash lsu 1st half then switch, same reason as total 1st cause I’ve seen Brian Kelly get taken to woodshed after the half against other good offensive minds, just last test Norvell are his lunch at halftime!!! I was so fucked up I wasn’t able to go bet. By that point i was having a nervous breakdown with all this life shit. I tried so hard to get home and have everything finished so I could chill and watch this game and it never happened, at some point I started getting food out and not eating it just melting stuff! Lol., Apparently I crashed on the wife and accidentally pulled on her tube coming out her but she seems ok. I musta gave her hard time till I woke up with shit all over from fridge to room, lol. Anyways I’ll never understand why they wanted to throw so much or why Kelly didn’t have that huge oline playing with way more a attitude instead of them looking like a bunch of fat pieces to stand in way to let qb pass !! That great and all but just maybe if the play caller had some guts those big boys coulda opened some huge holes by the 4th and the 3 running backs woulda gashed them!! Instead he was willing to get into a late game passing shootout with Lincoln Riley, pretty sure he has failed this route before!!! I dunno, obviously im not as smart the MIT twat who fancy printout said taking that 3 wasn’t important better to run a play that never had a chance of scoring and putting themselves into chase position basically rest the night!! Apparently the computer sheet doesn’t calculate the importance of certain things like giving your team a lead after a 8 min drive, the computer hasn’t even played so it doesn’t understand the difference in a teams demeanor when they either take the lead (doing the right thing), or the motivating factor for the other team who was able to then drive the field and put themselves into spot where they got 1st score of game and ball after half! None that shows up in the calculations I guess! Lol.

Ok no more rants. What im really mad bout I fired so many plays at this game, at 2 duffeeeht running backs only for a 3rd I don’t think even had a line got the important work! Had the called a game worth a damn all the backs would have gotten more touches! No clue why the game plan seemed to play right into usc hands which why I would have bet them 2nd half if I wasn’t so baked and had no chance of driving across river, so it all equaled me giving back some the mlb money from yesterday, money I grind hard to win every day! I didht even realize fsu was tonight so I was all rushing parlays together, lol. So there a small chance like the 1st half under will cash with DJ over pass yards and benson rec, or the lsu tight end prop will hit with the BC qb and or RB props I parlayed him with. If I actually hit those I would salvage that waste of money. If not I pissed some money away cause I was having a spall breakdown not getting to watch football cause life ceap, worst part is I didn’t even really sit down and watch this game after half either. Just wanted one break feom
Playing Nurse for my wife, all the household duties, etc etc. none that important now, I blew off some steam. Got wasted, hopefully got it out my system! lol. Congrats guys

 

[2daBank]

Last of my incoherent I’m sure rant (hoping I got my basic points across cause I know they sloppy post! Lol),, if you gonna go for it on that 1st drive just maybe you pound that 235lb rb a few times instead of running a pass play that had no chance snd maybe I at least get a td to save one my rb bets!!! lol

 

[twinkie13]

Great point. This might be the one cappers should be watching the closest all week because there is so much to learn about these two teams.

Well done my brother

 

[Br@ssknux]

7-4 total for the week. I hope I disclosed everything right...I think I have to do better at mentioning where I'd play it, which I will. I'm gonna add some recap comments on the posts where the write ups appeared. I know that's not ideal for quick one stop shop info, but having the original comments right there next to the outcome recap is good for context for me.

Thanks to everyone for their contributions to the thread. It makes it a lot of fun for me.

 

[B.A.R.]

7-4 total for the week. I hope I disclosed everything right...I think I have to do better at mentioning where I'd play it, which I will. I'm gonna add some recap comments on the posts where the write ups appeared. I know that's not ideal for quick one stop shop info, but having the original comments right there next to the outcome recap is good for context for me.

Thanks to everyone for their contributions to the thread. It makes it a lot of fun for me.

Great work.