Week 3 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

That UNLV call was fantastic

Thanks BAR. Found an acorn.

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

6. Boston College +16 @Missouri: There's a lot of hype behind Missouri this year based on the great year they had last year and the return of a large number of their contributors on offense. This will be the first sniff of decent competition this year as they've shut out both Murray State and Buffalo in the first two weeks. Missouri's strength is in the passing game with receivers Wease, Burden and Cooper, but despite getting some transfers to roll in, i think they'll struggle to run it without Cory Schrader, who was their captain and unquestioned leader last year. They also haven't been all that impressive in the passing game so far, with QB Brady Cook ranking in the bottom 10% of QBs in PFF grade. He hasn't made a big time throw yet, and is averaging only 6.8 yards per attempt. Defensively, they'll finally be challenged, and I think we'll see some cracks in the armor there. They had 5 defensive players drafted in the first 5 rounds with 2 going in the first two rounds. Mizzou is a solid program, but programs at their level don't just reload and replace 5 NFL guys in one year. BC comes in as a legit threat on both sides of the ball. Thomas Castellanos can run it and actually grades out on PFF as the #1 QB in the country averaging 13.4 yards per attempt and sporting a 6/0 ratio. We know he can run, and BC ranks 19th in the country in yards per play against. Bill O'Brien is no dummy and the Eagles looked very well coached in their dismantling of Florida State in their opener. I think O'Brien can have them ready to go, and games like this have been consistently going to the dogs. It seems to be a dereliction of duty to miss taking the points here.

Excellent point at the end, Br@ss. The points must be taken here. Once (if?) BC and O'Brien get a good beating from someone, we can then think twice about a +16 like this. Until that happens, though, this must be the play.

 

[lvmike32]

Sluka missed some open guys for sure. I think he's capable, but he hasn't shown it so far. They HAVE to find a way to make better use of White.

I was shocked to hear tv announcers say he was completing only 46% of his passes at beginning of game after there 2 0 start. And it got worse. But boy can he run. They couldn't get him to the ground. And they knew he wasn't throwing. Still gotta think that catches up with them. Too bad unlv qb last year didn't stay. But if they can get anything going pass wise they shot at the G5 playoff spot. Odom becoming hottest commodity for P4 job

 

[Br@ssknux]

Ashford has about an 85% chance of throwing a pick 6 here to blow the cover.

 

[bookieassassin]

fine thread BOL

 

[Br@ssknux]

I suspected this but just confirmed it. I am now 0-9 this year in the 3:30PM window. I think if I went back to last year it would be extremely negative as well. Might want to just sit those games out.

 

[Br@ssknux]

This is shaping up to be my worst week in a loooong time. I actually liked the card this week. When you're having a good week, when there's 5 games going on, 3 are "decided" in your favor and you're paying attention to 2 that are in the balance. This week, 5 minutes into the game on several of them, I was done. So now I'm reduced to throwing 4 of the 5 out and hoping the one still pending covers somehow.

Another week of overvaluing what happened last week. Too early to think a team is defined because of two data points, sometimes one. You learn every week, but this one looks like a painful lesson. I'll have some recaps.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5-11 week, so year long total goes to 17-24. I don't know how everyone else did, but some of these really left me shaking my head. I'm glad most of the value of this thread is info/entertainment, ad nobody really tails, because weeks like this spring up. The only brought spot of this week is that we got more information and teams are starting to accumulate sample sizes that we can use, but ultimately I think we have to remember that too much reliance on "last week" is a mistake.

I'm embarking on comments on each individual play(in that post). Should be fun.

 

[jimmymo]

5-11 week, so year long total goes to 17-24. I don't know how everyone else did, but some of these really left me shaking my head. I'm glad most of the value of this thread is info/entertainment, ad nobody really tails, because weeks like this spring up. The only brought spot of this week is that we got more information and teams are starting to accumulate sample sizes that we can use, but ultimately I think we have to remember that too much reliance on "last week" is a mistake.

I'm embarking on comments on each individual play(in that post). Should be fun.

Stay the course --- it is just variance and this season seems to be especially crazy. Good reminder that even the best of the best plays have a 35-40% chance of losing and sometimes the variances bites. That said, I am still trying to figure out in what world Kent State had a 30% chance of covering the 1st H line against Tenny (of course I didn't bet of course)

Looking forward to week 4

 

[Dollaz]

5-11 week, so year long total goes to 17-24. I don't know how everyone else did, but some of these really left me shaking my head. I'm glad most of the value of this thread is info/entertainment, ad nobody really tails, because weeks like this spring up. The only brought spot of this week is that we got more information and teams are starting to accumulate sample sizes that we can use, but ultimately I think we have to remember that too much reliance on "last week" is a mistake.

I'm embarking on comments on each individual play(in that post). Should be fun.

You will be fine bruh. These things happen.

 

[Frank Costanza]

5-11 week, so year long total goes to 17-24. I don't know how everyone else did, but some of these really left me shaking my head. I'm glad most of the value of this thread is info/entertainment, ad nobody really tails, because weeks like this spring up. The only brought spot of this week is that we got more information and teams are starting to accumulate sample sizes that we can use, but ultimately I think we have to remember that too much reliance on "last week" is a mistake.

I'm embarking on comments on each individual play(in that post). Should be fun.

Off week, happens. Your contributions to this board have been and are outstanding.

 

[2daBank]

5-11 week, so year long total goes to 17-24. I don't know how everyone else did, but some of these really left me shaking my head. I'm glad most of the value of this thread is info/entertainment, ad nobody really tails, because weeks like this spring up. The only brought spot of this week is that we got more information and teams are starting to accumulate sample sizes that we can use, but ultimately I think we have to remember that too much reliance on "last week" is a mistake.

I'm embarking on comments on each individual play(in that post). Should be fun.

Bro this a great thread, bad weeks or starts happen, I have no doubt you will get it going the right direction and you could miss every game and I’d still read this thread. Keep your head up it will turn. Next weeks card looks like it has a lot more to offer, I dunno how you managed to find so many plays this past week that card was awful. You will get there and be rolling in no time!!