Bowl Writeups and Hopefully Feedback
- Thread starter Br@ssknux
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
I can’t help but play the over 50 in a wake game. Suspect anyone can score on them and think they will be able to score some.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
looks like you nailed it my man
2daBank
Voice of Reason
lol. Certainly not your fault bro. Of all the ignorant ways I find to lose at least one total a week this might be the worst. I was joking with friend of mine about how pissed I was at wake for not using time outs and scoring again before half but didn’t seriously think for a second I was in any danger of losing the fucking thing.
All that misery and preying wake got a stop in time for sparty to just kick the fg then the prick kicker misses a chip shot. Then wake tries to let them score at end, the 1st play the fat fukk fullback trips over his own fat ass, then dantonio calls time out to instruct his kid to show the world why they 6-6 and not score the touchdown! I bet kids are lining up to play for your passive aggressive underachieving ass! Fukkin clown!
It’s like I’m cursed today. Usc comes storming back has all the momentum after great on side kick call and next play fukkin Slovis gets hurt, that was our chance to be able to win this game without any help from the shit bag defense. Instead they have to punt and of course usc defense can’t get shitbag Iowa offense off the field on 3rd and 11!!! Guess Slovis is done, so are my chances on another game. Fukk me
Br@ssknux
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^^^^^^^We've all been there Bank. Kudos on a terrific rant, and you are absolutely correct. USC's defense.....what am embarrassment. Iowa scored TD's on every drive until deep into the 3rd quarter, i.e., until they didn't care to score anymore. I'm sure this effort will silence the Helton critics. I'd say the Slovis injury had a lot to do with it, but Iowa could have scored on every drive if they felt like it.
Br@ssknux
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There he is! Great to hear from you Twink!
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
As stupid as Clawson was at the end of the 1H, he definitely did the smart thiing and called the "let 'em score play". Not that it got 'em anywhere. The clock mismanagement at the end of the 1H was criminal.
Br@ssknux
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12. Camping World Bowl: Notre Dame -3 (-118) v Iowa State: I really liked Iowa State coming into the year and actually cashed a couple tickets courtesy of the Cyclones but they just haven't been able to get it going this year. They've been competitive and had a couple of what turned out to be great looking losses, but what was their best win of the year? Texas? TCU? Frankly, I'm having a hard time coming up with a case for Iowa State. Notre Dame is solid in pretty much every phase, and they've been resourceful in getting and avoiding turnovers. ISU also has had all kinds of problems on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. ND IN Notre Dame's two losses, they ran up against 2 of the best defenses in the country. When they've played the rest of their schedule, i.e. more representative/ordinary defenses like Iowa State's they've performed well, especially when Ian Book has time to throw, and Iowa State doesn't really pressure the passer. Iowa State's major strength is in the pass game, but ND is ranked 4th in yards per pass attempt against. As for motivation, you would think ND might be lacking in that category since ISU isn't a high caliber opponent, but they've got a marguee spot on National Semifinal day, and they've kind of been in the background for most of the year this year since their schedule didn't turn out to be as challenging as you would think. This is a chance to remind everyone who they are, and I think they'll be motivated. As long as that's the case, I think the talent difference and ND's overall resourcefulness this year will win out.
Br@ssknux
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13. Peach Bowl: Clemson -2 v Ohio State: It's very hard to go against Ohio State after the year they've had, but if anyone wants to go against Dabo Swinney at this point, be my guest. Since Lawrence has been installed as the starter, the Tigers are undefeated, and I'm not about to bet against that trend. Every edge you could hope for as a Clemson backer is right there for you, as Dabo has been spitting nails about the perceived slights his team has had to deal with due to how shitty the ACC was this year. In addition to the motivation, I think this sets up as a bad matchup for Ohio State, as Clemson would be for everyone. Although the Buckeyes have been great all year, there's been some chinks in the armor the past couple of weeks. Justin Fields showed a slight penchant for turning the ball over when pressured by Penn State, and the Ohio State defense had all kinds of trouble covering Michigan's receivers for big stretches of that game. Before the game got out of hand and the Buckeyes could pin their ears back, Shea Patterson was finding guys wide open for big chunks of yardage. They were especially vulnerable when their linebackers were in coverage, especially Pete Werner, who was constantly chasing backs on wheel routes and down the seam. If Clemson can isolate him in coverage against Etienne or any of their receivers, it's going to cause major problems. Although I'm sure Dobbins will play well, Justin Fields is not 100%, and a big part of their 3rd down offense is his ability to pick up first downs with scrambles, and that will subject him to a lot of hits. Obviously, if either of these QBs gets hurt, their team is screwed, but I think Fields is much more likely to take a beating than Lawrence is. Ultimately, I just think Clemson has a little too much for the Buckeyes here.
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Br@ssknux
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Didn't write it up because I only put a half unit on it, but I took Oklahoma +14.5 at -120. Oklahoma has almost no chance to stop LSU, but LSU also gave up some big numbers to opposing offenses this year. Say what you will about OU, but they had the top offense in the country in yards per play and if nothing else, the back door will be wide open. Having said that, I'm sure Oklahoma has read all about how they have no shot in this game against a playoff newcomer while most of their players have played multiple games in the playoff in previous years. I wouldn't be surprised if they show some major resolve and play their best game, but nobody has come close to stopping LSU all year. Not enough confidence in the OU defense to make it an official play.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Quick thought on the RedBox Bowl. It involves my alma mater, the beloved Illini, so I stay away from taking a strong position of their games unless there's something ironclad on it. As of now, I have no play, but keep a close eye on some Illinois injuries. Two players appear to be game time decisions for the Illini in advance of their game v Cal, LB Jake Hansen and WR Josh Imatorbhebhe. If either of these guys are out, it's huge blow for the Illini. Hansen is their brains on the defense, and he has extremely adept in creating turnovers, which Illinois thrived on this year. They won a couple games without him, but they forced no turnovers in their last 2 games against Iowa and Northwestern, and they missed him badly. Imatorbhebhe is a huge factor in their passing game. If they don't have him, they will be severely limited even with Brandon peters back. They are already without their #2 and #3 receivers from the original depth chart(Ricky Smalling and Trevon Sidney), but they pieced a passing game together because they had JI. Without him, they are going to really struggle. If they are missing both of those guys, I'd lay the points with Cal. Unfortunately, we won't know until right before kickoff.
Thanks for this...
Br@ssknux
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14. Music City Bowl: Louisville +4.5 v Mississippi State: In this matchup, both offenses should have little trouble moving the ball as both defenses have been borderline helpless at times. MSU runs the ball effectively with their QBs and especially Kylin Hill, so there's no doubt they'll run the ball effectively against Louisville's putrid run defense, but MSU is going to have just as much of a problem, if not worse, in stopping Louisville passing game. They have been torched by all of the average or better passing attacks they've faced(122nd in yards per attempt against), and Louisville is ranked 8th in that same category offensively. In addition, I think Louisville will be able to run it on them if they want as well, but they definitely will be chasing Louisville's receivers all over the field. Ultimately, with MSU's passing attack being somewhat pedestrian, (even moreso now that they are down to a hobbled Tommy Stevens at QB), I think Louisville will have a better chance to get stops due to MSU's penchant to be one dimensional. Scott Satterfield is no dope, so he'll understand that he needs to sell out to stop the run. I also like that I think I'll have the more motivated team. Satterfield has changed the culture at Louisville, and things are looking up, while things are much less stable with Joe Moorhead at Mississippi State. I'll take +4.5 with the offense that might never punt as well as the team with the more upward trajectory.
Br@ssknux
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15. Orange Bowl: Florida -14 (-120) v Virginia: I typically don't like to lay this many points, but there's no doubt this lines up as a bad matchup for Virginia. Motivationally, I've heard people suggest that Florida might not be motivated to play a team like Virginia, but this is the Orange Bowl. If we were talking about the Belk Bowl or something like that, I might listen, but this is a NY6 bowl, and all but one of the Florida players who are projected to be high draft picks are playing. I think that indicates that the gators will be engaged, and I definitely trust Dan Mullen to have his team ready. Virginia's primary strength on offense begins and ends with Bryce Perkins and his ability to make plays on the run. However, Perkins is prone to getting sacked and giving up the ball, and this offensive line for Virginia is going to get manhandled by the Florida front seven. Florida is 4th in sacks and 14th against the run, and UVA's OL couldn't bust a grape in the run game all year, and gives up sacks by the bushel. Also, as the year went on, UVA could not stop the pass. Kyle Trask has been an upgrade, and Van Jeffferson and Freddie Swain are play makers that will run circles around UVA's secondary. This game reminds me a lot of Florida's last game with Florida State(40-17 win with a 200+ yard edge). FSU had some success stopping Florida's run, but Trask torched them and the defense put the clamps down. This looks like a game that the Gators win big both on the stat sheet and on the field.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Based on what I'm hearing, have to add this one....
16. Redbox Bowl:: Cal -5.5 (-115) v Illinois: This line is actually dropping, but I'm hearing that the two guys I mentioned a couple posts above, Josh Imatorbhebhe and Jake Hansen are both highly unlikely to play. This is a major issue for Illinois because although they have QB Brandon Peters back, they really add back any injured players that they were missing in the Northwestern game, and in that game, they were so limited that they almost seemed to punt on the game. Offensively, they have zero targets because even backup WR Caleb Reams, who was a 3rd stringer to begin with, isn't going to play either. They will be down to walk ons and total non entities other than freshman WR Casey Washington. LB Hansen being out means that over the past several games, Illinois has lost their best offensive player, their best defensive player, and their best offensive lineman in C Doug Kramer. Also, when I say these guys were their "best" guys, that's after their previous "best guys had gotten hurt, as they started the season without Bobby Roundtree, who was a 2nd team all Big Ten DE and Marquez Beason, their best recruit who would have been their best secondary guy. There's really no telling how good Illinois could have been this year considering the number of injuries they've had, and based on what we've seen from the Big Ten and Pac 12 recently in bowl action I would have liked their chances, but they're just too depleted. Their only chance in this game is if they get turnovers and outscheme Cal, but unfortunately for them, with Garbers back, Cal does not turn the ball over and the Bears are coached by one of the few legitimately smart guys in college football in Justin Wilcox. I hope I'm wrong, but Cal should be able to control this game, and if they get some offense rolling, I don't think Illinois has the horses to keep pace. I'll be surprised if the Illini top that 18.5 team total.
16. Redbox Bowl:: Cal -5.5 (-115) v Illinois: This line is actually dropping, but I'm hearing that the two guys I mentioned a couple posts above, Josh Imatorbhebhe and Jake Hansen are both highly unlikely to play. This is a major issue for Illinois because although they have QB Brandon Peters back, they really add back any injured players that they were missing in the Northwestern game, and in that game, they were so limited that they almost seemed to punt on the game. Offensively, they have zero targets because even backup WR Caleb Reams, who was a 3rd stringer to begin with, isn't going to play either. They will be down to walk ons and total non entities other than freshman WR Casey Washington. LB Hansen being out means that over the past several games, Illinois has lost their best offensive player, their best defensive player, and their best offensive lineman in C Doug Kramer. Also, when I say these guys were their "best" guys, that's after their previous "best guys had gotten hurt, as they started the season without Bobby Roundtree, who was a 2nd team all Big Ten DE and Marquez Beason, their best recruit who would have been their best secondary guy. There's really no telling how good Illinois could have been this year considering the number of injuries they've had, and based on what we've seen from the Big Ten and Pac 12 recently in bowl action I would have liked their chances, but they're just too depleted. Their only chance in this game is if they get turnovers and outscheme Cal, but unfortunately for them, with Garbers back, Cal does not turn the ball over and the Bears are coached by one of the few legitimately smart guys in college football in Justin Wilcox. I hope I'm wrong, but Cal should be able to control this game, and if they get some offense rolling, I don't think Illinois has the horses to keep pace. I'll be surprised if the Illini top that 18.5 team total.
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sevenpointroaddog
Active Member
New reader here. These are GREAT write- ups. The Notre Dame and Clemson narratives were particularly keen (Etienne out of the backfield- oh yeah!).
With you on Louisville. Was going to sit out Cal-IL, but the bad luck of IL that you detailed has me thinking more about it (plus, I really like Garbers). Tough to pull the trigger, though, since dogs are 18-6 combined in both teams' games (9-3 each). Maybe I'll just root for the Illini to win.
With you on Louisville. Was going to sit out Cal-IL, but the bad luck of IL that you detailed has me thinking more about it (plus, I really like Garbers). Tough to pull the trigger, though, since dogs are 18-6 combined in both teams' games (9-3 each). Maybe I'll just root for the Illini to win.
Great write-ups. Your take on Virginia is spot-on and I agree that the match-up totally favors Florida on paper. I do worry about Florida‘s offensive line as it also struggles — its in a rebuilding year — but that hasn‘t stopped Trask from repeatedly putting up big numbers and Virginia‘s pass rush hasn‘t deterred anybody lately as you mentioned — well, one exception came at the end of the Virginia Tech game 
but even in that game VT passed at will and Florida‘s pass attack is truly loaded. Pitts and even more receivers than you mentioned are really solid. Swain (listed as questionable last I saw) and Toney are dynamic playmakers who easily turn a one yard catch into a 60 yard catch. Grimes is a downfield threat, a 5-star superb athlete. Pitts is practically a receiver playing at tight end. He can line up in different formations and is super tough to defend. Van Jefferson isn’t the best athlete, but a very polished route runner —the converse of Grimes basically.
I‘m still skeptical about motivation tbh. Plenty of teams have not cared about NY6 Bowl cause of the opponent they were facing — Auburn for example against UCF. I love Mullen. Just dunno about the players caring.
but even in that game VT passed at will and Florida‘s pass attack is truly loaded. Pitts and even more receivers than you mentioned are really solid. Swain (listed as questionable last I saw) and Toney are dynamic playmakers who easily turn a one yard catch into a 60 yard catch. Grimes is a downfield threat, a 5-star superb athlete. Pitts is practically a receiver playing at tight end. He can line up in different formations and is super tough to defend. Van Jefferson isn’t the best athlete, but a very polished route runner —the converse of Grimes basically.I‘m still skeptical about motivation tbh. Plenty of teams have not cared about NY6 Bowl cause of the opponent they were facing — Auburn for example against UCF. I love Mullen. Just dunno about the players caring.
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Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
The fact that Illinois is in this game is really remarkable. I didn't even know that Tony Adams(their best secondary guy and the guy who picked off the late pass to set up the Wisconsin win) was going to be out. They have vitally important guys out in every unit. Good for Lovie and the staff because the amount of guys they have out is ridiculous. Hopefully next year they'll be healthy for a change, because these kinds of injuries are nothing new. I'll spare you all the boredom of going through how many they've had over the years.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks VC. You're the man, and I know you are an expert on Florida. As for motivation, usually when we see teams having issues with that it's when they had major playoff hopes and got knocked out late. Despite having two losses that year (2017), had Auburn won the SEC title game, I think they would have been in the playoff. That was never really the case with Florida this year. Also, no offense, but that UCF team was tons more dangerous than the Cavs here, right?Great write-ups. Your take on Virginia is spot-on and I agree that the match-up totally favors Florida on paper. I do worry about Florida‘s offensive line as it also struggles — its in a rebuilding year — but that hasn‘t stopped Trask from repeatedly putting up big numbers and Virginia‘s pass rush hasn‘t deterred anybody lately as you mentioned — well, one exception came at the end of the Virginia Tech game
I‘m still skeptical about motivation tbh. Plenty of teams have not cared about NY6 Bowl cause of the opponent they were facing — Auburn for example against UCF. I love Mullen. Just dunno about the players caring.
Florida did have conference title hopes but yeah that‘s a strong point. And yes lol
ofc no offense taken... but both programs are much lower in profile/prestige. But yeah Florida probably isn‘t to be considered in some disappointing spot even if it doesn‘t have last year‘s strong revenge edge against a high-profile Michigan.
Br@ssknux
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Thanks BAR. Yep. UVA played about as well as they could.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
^^^^^Thanks Timmy. When you lay 14, you set yourself up for that kind of thing so I deserve it. It was probably the right side because UVA played WAAAYYYY more effectively than I thought they would and they still needed a late TD to cover. But still, you get what you deserve when you lay that much.
Br@ssknux
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17. Liberty Bowl Navy pk (-118) v Kansas State: I've seen a lot of people on the K State side of this one, and maybe they'll be right, but I don't think this is as complicated as people are making it out to be. To me, handicapping is all about checking the matchups and seeing who's likely to have success attacking the other team's weakness. In this matchup, we have a Navy team whose obvious strength is running the ball against a Kansas Sate team that was not good against the run (91st in ypc). I love Chris Kliemann but I really don't care that he's seen option attacks in the FCS because this group of players can't stop the run and Navy are fucking experts at running the ball. Also, Navy's strength on defense is stopping the run (ND for example only managed 3.4 yards per carry against them), and that's typically K State's MO. In order to score significantly on Navy, the Wildcats are going to have to throw it effectively. Perhaps they will, but that's not their pedigree, so I'm willing to tip my cap if they do. As for the motivational side, I realize Navy already has 10 wins and they already beat Army, but are we dumb enough to expect anything other than a life or death effort from a Navy team coached by Coach Ken? The service academies aren't wildly successful ATS in bow games by accident. I wouldn't be wild about laying 3.5 or something like that, but now that I can get this at a reasonable money line, I'm going to take it.
Brass, all great points. I liked this to begin with but with the movement this is even more enticing.
Br@ssknux
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18. Alamo Bowl: Utah -7 v Texas: Usually I am very hesitant to go against Tom Hermann when he's in a dog role, but if I'm going to do it, it's gonna be when I can back Kyle Whittingham. I don't buy that Utah won't be excited to be in this game because they completely embarrassed themselves the last time out, Texas is a name school that everyone wants a shot at, and Whittingham's track records indicates that he would never allow that. This is also a horrific matchup for Texas. Defensively, although they've gotten a lot of their players back from injury, even at full strength they can't cover anyone and can't tackle to save their lives. Although Utah has a reputation as a running team and with good reason, Tyler Huntley averaged more than 10 yards per attempt and had two receivers averaging north of 18 yards per reception. Defensively, Utah is the kind of team that will force Sam Ehlinger to be checkdown Charlie and make Texas's offense a sideways mess. They will be chomping at the bit to prove they are better than that Oregon performance on national TV, and their body of work this year suggests rather obviously that they are. There isn't the kind of positive energy with Texas like there was last year going into the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. If anything, I think it might be Texas who's more likely to mail in their performance in this one. If that happens, the Longhorns will get embarrassed because even if they muster up an A effort, I still think they'll struggle to cover this.
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bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
FWIW - I totally agree with this. I am UT alum and have 2 nephews - avid sports fans - who live in Austin and are not going to game in San Antonio. They told me Christmas "nobody cares." While the students don't control Hermann and team, there is no "buzz" at all. I probably will not bet against Hermann in this situation, but I agree with your comments.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Bones, that's good to hear. Like I said, I don't like making a habit of fading Hermann when dogged, but I HATE this matchup for Texas. Everything going against them here.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Happy new year, brass. keep up the great work :shake:
Br@ssknux
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Same to you S&A!!!
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Meh, there is no more difficult thing in sports capping than bowl games.
I follow Texas football very closely and things are in disarray - the alums hate Herman, he fired his coordinators, disarray in the program and much more.
And then this...Utah is a joke. We get that. But no one expected Texas to play this hard and well tonight. No one.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
wrong i was ...but i did not wager. Love what you write - great help. Happy 2020
Br@ssknux
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Believe it or not, I feel better after reading this. That was as bad as I've missed on a game in awhile, so I needed it. Thanks Frank.
Br@ssknux
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19. Outback Bowl: Minnesota +7 v Auburn: When you recall what Auburn did to Purdue in last year's Music City Bowl, grabbing points with with a successful but flawed Big Ten team against them the next year doesn't seem that appetizing, but there's a few differences here. Last year Auburn was coming off a terrible bowl performance the previous bowl season vs UCF and was eager to make amends. Also, that Purdue team was overslotted in that bowl, and they rode the success of their lightning in a bottle win against Ohio State to get them there. his Minnesota team is much better than that Purdue team on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. Minnesota matches up as having the edge on paper in every category when Auburn has the ball. This is not the case on the other side of the ball, as Auburn had arguably the best defense in the nation this year, but Minnesota has a lot going for them if they give their QB a chance to throw the ball on at least 50% of snaps. They have 2 bona-fide deep threats in Bateman and Johnson and Tanner Morgan has been outstandingly efficient this year. Auburn is very good, but coming off the Alabama win and the bowl game performance last year make cause them to think that they just need to roll their helmets out there, and Minnesota is a legit foe.
