I wanted to get this started tonight a bit and will dive in some more tomorrow afternoon as well. There won't be many picks in here. I mostly live bet but will post props/team totals etc for the fade crowd...Tonight though, I wanted to give some quick thoughts on each series wager from myself in a betting perspective. I will be playing a few of these and will post as I do....
Toronto vs Washington
There is simply no value either way here. Generally, with the talent the Wizards have and the playoff issues of the Raptors at times I would say that looking at that juicy number is nice but I simply cannot see the Wizards putting things together for this series. Plus they have Scotty Brooks. This Raptors team is a bit different and even with 'Playoff Kyle Lowry' they can win this series in 4-6 games no problem at all. I cannot even think of a good series situation to bet either in.
Verdict: No bets period
Boston vs Milwaukee
This number is very interesting with how low it is. There is a distinct lack of respect for Boston here who happens to have a top 3 coach in the league. Do not discredit coaching in a playoff series. I wish the Bucks would put it together but they have been much like Washington this season. I think this number is very low and has definite value
Verdict: Boston -150/160 for the series. I would also look at them after Game 1 if they lose.
Philadelphia vs Miami
The Sixers come in on fire and seem like a fad pick here. I would love to see them do well. I also know that this Meat team with a great coach will give them fits. This is not the best match-up for Philadelphia here. I think they will win the series in the end but of they were to lose it would be no surprise.
Verdict: Miami +400 for a nibble or two. I wouldn't bet anything as the series goes though
Cleveland vs Indiana
We get this series again to open the playoffs but with some different faces. I think it is going to be a great series. Remember last year the Pacers really had them on the ropes the whole time but couldn't close enough. I think Dipo has a huge series here. Obviously, MVP Bron is gonna be big but they have to play some defense. They are not as skilled offensively as last year to overcome that as much.
Verdict: Indiana +450/463 and I would be tempted to get my feet wet after the first game as well. If you really want Cleveland you will have to wait for something like down 3-1 for a good price and 2-1 for a fair price.
Houston vs Minnesota
It was a fun season for Minny and they will just get better. Even if 'Playoff James Harden' shows up before a 'hard series' this Rockets team is way too good (I was wrong about how they would mix --- kudos to them). This series is over quick...5 tops.
Verdict: No play on anything. Look at an exacta perhaps?
Golden State vs San Antonio
This could be interesting for awhile as the dubs have been injures and in cruise control for a few months now. Many people will overreact to their last month or so and Curry injury but that is just what happens after many deep runs. Injuries and boredom. The season starts now. With that being said, I wouldn't bet this series but from a pure value perspective there is some in this ridiculous line
Verdict: If you want to bet, very small on Spurs +775/900.
Portland vs New Orleans
I love the Pelicans and AD is a top 3-4 performer in the league. Portland has somehow totally changed things since that loss at Denver in December. Dame was wondering after that night but they are so much different. The selfish play seems to have subsided a bit from last year. I like this team and they should have no problem with the Pelicans. I saw that the number already moved quite a bit.
Verdict: Portland is the play but the number got away. Track it and see if it goes down to something more comfortable. Otherwise, wait for a home loss and then bet them.
Utah vs Oklahoma City
This is the series that will be the most intense and fun. I had OKC pegged correctly this year... while most of Covers Social Media (aka twitter) had them out as challengers to the Warriors and the 'next big 3'. This is also the series both teams most likely wished to avoid. Remember, OKC has a terrible coach. This should never be discounted. The price is definitely wrong on this series. Even though I am sure Utah wish they had avoided this.. they are the better team.
Verdict: Utah +110/+115 but this seems like not enough of a comeback. You can hope to be down 0-1 or 0-2 but that is tough as well. Still worth a stab though, imo.
All prices are from a few books...I was merely trying to paint a picture in real time mixing offshore and local.
Toronto vs Washington
There is simply no value either way here. Generally, with the talent the Wizards have and the playoff issues of the Raptors at times I would say that looking at that juicy number is nice but I simply cannot see the Wizards putting things together for this series. Plus they have Scotty Brooks. This Raptors team is a bit different and even with 'Playoff Kyle Lowry' they can win this series in 4-6 games no problem at all. I cannot even think of a good series situation to bet either in.
Verdict: No bets period
Boston vs Milwaukee
This number is very interesting with how low it is. There is a distinct lack of respect for Boston here who happens to have a top 3 coach in the league. Do not discredit coaching in a playoff series. I wish the Bucks would put it together but they have been much like Washington this season. I think this number is very low and has definite value
Verdict: Boston -150/160 for the series. I would also look at them after Game 1 if they lose.
Philadelphia vs Miami
The Sixers come in on fire and seem like a fad pick here. I would love to see them do well. I also know that this Meat team with a great coach will give them fits. This is not the best match-up for Philadelphia here. I think they will win the series in the end but of they were to lose it would be no surprise.
Verdict: Miami +400 for a nibble or two. I wouldn't bet anything as the series goes though
Cleveland vs Indiana
We get this series again to open the playoffs but with some different faces. I think it is going to be a great series. Remember last year the Pacers really had them on the ropes the whole time but couldn't close enough. I think Dipo has a huge series here. Obviously, MVP Bron is gonna be big but they have to play some defense. They are not as skilled offensively as last year to overcome that as much.
Verdict: Indiana +450/463 and I would be tempted to get my feet wet after the first game as well. If you really want Cleveland you will have to wait for something like down 3-1 for a good price and 2-1 for a fair price.
Houston vs Minnesota
It was a fun season for Minny and they will just get better. Even if 'Playoff James Harden' shows up before a 'hard series' this Rockets team is way too good (I was wrong about how they would mix --- kudos to them). This series is over quick...5 tops.
Verdict: No play on anything. Look at an exacta perhaps?
Golden State vs San Antonio
This could be interesting for awhile as the dubs have been injures and in cruise control for a few months now. Many people will overreact to their last month or so and Curry injury but that is just what happens after many deep runs. Injuries and boredom. The season starts now. With that being said, I wouldn't bet this series but from a pure value perspective there is some in this ridiculous line
Verdict: If you want to bet, very small on Spurs +775/900.
Portland vs New Orleans
I love the Pelicans and AD is a top 3-4 performer in the league. Portland has somehow totally changed things since that loss at Denver in December. Dame was wondering after that night but they are so much different. The selfish play seems to have subsided a bit from last year. I like this team and they should have no problem with the Pelicans. I saw that the number already moved quite a bit.
Verdict: Portland is the play but the number got away. Track it and see if it goes down to something more comfortable. Otherwise, wait for a home loss and then bet them.
Utah vs Oklahoma City
This is the series that will be the most intense and fun. I had OKC pegged correctly this year... while most of Covers Social Media (aka twitter) had them out as challengers to the Warriors and the 'next big 3'. This is also the series both teams most likely wished to avoid. Remember, OKC has a terrible coach. This should never be discounted. The price is definitely wrong on this series. Even though I am sure Utah wish they had avoided this.. they are the better team.
Verdict: Utah +110/+115 but this seems like not enough of a comeback. You can hope to be down 0-1 or 0-2 but that is tough as well. Still worth a stab though, imo.
All prices are from a few books...I was merely trying to paint a picture in real time mixing offshore and local.
