April Bases

[mrpickem]

[13-11 +0.61u]
3-4 Yesterday

• 903 Milwaukee Brewers -108
• 916 New York Yankees -200
• 918 Toronto Blue Jays -170
• 925 Colorado Rockies +137
• 915 Detroit Tigers/New York Yankees Over 8½ -110

Davies pitched much better LY after break and Roark off his worse year
MIL 20-11 as road fav at night L3 years, https://goo.gl/PdeKBz
L3 years on Mondays CIN 14-21 & MIL 20-15 https://goo.gl/1ZpDMP

View attachment 38708

 

[mrpickem]

adding a couple late totals

• 909 San Francisco Giants/Los Angeles Dodgers 1st 5 Innings Under 4 -110
• 911 Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres Under 7½ -105
• 921 Boston Red Sox/Oakland Athletics Over 9 +102

I reckon I was a bit tipsy last night when I posted this to the wrong thread. lol, but the worse part was I clicked in SD under 7' when I wanted SF under. :curse:

Shit happens, I'll own it and move on...

 

[mrpickem]

[16-16 -2.05u]
3-5 Yesterday

• 951 Milwaukee Brewers -115
• 955 New York Mets -130
• 957 Arizona Diamondbacks -105
• 965 Houston Astros -1½ -130
• 969 Boston Red Sox -1½ +100
• 973 Colorado Rockies/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7 +110
• 973 Colorado Rockies +147
• 973 Colorado Rockies/Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 Innings Under 4 -125

stros 29-3 over 170 favs on the road last year

View attachment 38725

 

[jimbof20]

[16-16 -2.05u]
3-5 Yesterday

• 951 Milwaukee Brewers -115
• 955 New York Mets -130
• 957 Arizona Diamondbacks -105
• 965 Houston Astros -1½ -130
• 969 Boston Red Sox -1½ +100
• 973 Colorado Rockies/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7 +110
• 973 Colorado Rockies +147
• 973 Colorado Rockies/Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 Innings Under 4 -125

stros 29-3 over 170 favs on the road last year

View attachment 38725

You mean as favorites 170 and higher?

 

[mrpickem]

You mean as favorites 170 and higher?

yes.. higher than -170 but not -170 exactly :nonofinger:

if you include 170 they only 30-5 https://killersports.com/mlb/query?...+>+2017+and+line+<=+-170&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[mrpickem]

I'm definitely considering adding Stroshow
home favs of 160 or more on Bill Millers watch cash a very high pct and ROI 14.6% for side and 16.2% for RL :clapping2:

 

[mrpickem]

Brian Knight don't like the cold much and is the 6th best under ump when temp is below 60. It will be around 50 in the bronx tonight
23-11-1 under in his career

View attachment 38730

 

[mrpickem]

It's tough to take under with Zimm vs this lineup, but wtf...I'll doit FF

• 964 Toronto Blue Jays -176
• 965 Houston Astros -210
• 961 Detroit Tigers/New York Yankees 1st 5 Innings Under 4½ -125
• 964 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +105

Can already see, I'm getting sucked into far to many favs, but what's done is done

 

[Vapster]

All good stuff mrpickem:shake:

 

[mrpickem]

[22-22 -2.76u]
6-6 Yesterday
My initial plays went 5-3 yesterday, but I came back with 4 ump based adds that went 1-3 :hitcomputer:
I'm thinking umps are good for totals or particular pitchers, but not so much for home/away/dog/fav/etc...

• 901 Milwaukee Brewers +102
• 905 Arizona Diamondbacks +122
• 927 Colorado Rockies/Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 Innings Under 4 -120
• 907 New York Mets -1½ -115
• 909 St. Louis Cardinals/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7½ -118

View attachment 38737

View attachment 38738

can you believe homers team has only won once in 19 starts over L365

harp likes natty park

View attachment 38740

 

[mrpickem]

[25-24 -2.04u]
3-2 Yesterday

• 969 Texas Rangers +127
• 955 Cincinnati Reds/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8 -105
• 959 Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers Over 8 +100
• 963 New York Yankees -1½ -120

So far this year...
TB, DET, LAA and CIN combined 24-0-1 to the under
AZ, SEA, LAD and CUB combined 22-3-2 to the over
Best fade...NYY +7.5u
Money teams SEA +7.8u, BAL +7.1u, MIL +5u

These are todays starters(team record) since begin on 2018
View attachment 38755

Lets play. :cheers3:

 

[mrpickem]

one more

• 958 Atlanta Braves -116

 

[mrpickem]

[29-25 +1.05u]
4-1 Yesterday

• 903 Cincinnati Reds/Pittsburgh Pirates* Under 7½ -115
• 913 Texas Rangers/Los Angeles Angels* Under 8½ -108
• 915 Tampa Bay Rays/San Francisco Giants* Under 7 +100
• 916 San Francisco Giants* +108
• 918 Philadelphia Phillies* -150
• 919 Boston Red Sox/Arizona Diamondbacks* Over 8½ -115
• 919 Boston Red Sox* -118
• 921 Seattle Mariners* -117

Probably too many plays for a Friday, but wtf, I'm following a good night and trying to stay hot. 11-5 so far this year on totals :glove:

View attachment 38772
View attachment 38773

 

[mrpickem]

[33-28 +1.38u]
4-3-1 Yesterday
Rays & Reds still haven't managed an over. Cubs 6-0-1 to the over.
Best bets so far...M's +6.6, O's +6.1, MIL +5.9 and best fades...BOS +7.4, NYY +6.5, CUBS +5.5

• 955 San Diego Padres +113
• 958 Milwaukee Brewers -125
• 979 Boston Red Sox -135
• 970 Cleveland Indians -1½ +110
• 969 Toronto Blue Jays/Cleveland Indians Under 8 -115
• 977 Tampa Bay Rays/San Francisco Giants Under 7 -110

Still red hot on totals: 14-5

View attachment 38798

View attachment 38800

 

[mrpickem]

• 951 Washington Nationals -128

 

[mrpickem]

[35-33 -1.39u]
2-5 Yesterday

• 906 Pittsburgh Pirates -128
• 908 Milwaukee Brewers -109
• 919 Oakland Athletics +163
• 921 Seattle Mariners -106
• 924 Los Angeles Angels -142
• 907 Chicago Cubs/Milwaukee Brewers Under 9 -110
• 913 New York Yankees -1½ -115
• 923 Texas Rangers/Los Angeles Angels Over 9½ +105

View attachment 38815
View attachment 38817
View attachment 38818​

 

[mrpickem]

[41-35 +1.87u]
6-2 Yesterday

• 953 Washington Nationals +125
• 961 Tampa Bay Rays -154
• 961 Tampa Bay Rays/Chicago White Sox Under 7½ +100
• 963 Oakland Athletics/Baltimore Orioles Under 10 -110

rays 14-3 on Monday since last year while CHW is 5-13
rays 16-6 L22 games following a shutout(10-2 when fav)
snell 19-5 as fav last 2.5 years and 12-2 L14
chisox 6-18 in home day games as dog

View attachment 38833

​

 

[Noles4life]

WWE girls.... love it

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 965 New York Yankees +137

JV hasnt been a good bet,...period. Tanaka has cashed so much more frequently. 8-3 on road in April last 3 years.

This shows last 3 year before all star break
View attachment 38839

I do like the under as well, but cant take it at 7'

 

[mrpickem]

[43-38 +0.52u]
2-3 Yesterday

• 903 Washington Nationals +128
• 912 Detroit Tigers +134
• 915 Tampa Bay Rays -170
• 917 Oakland Athletics -175
• 919 New York Yankees +180
• 921 Seattle Mariners -110
• 905 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -102
• 914 Boston Red Sox -1½ -115
• 917 Oakland Athletics/Baltimore Orioles Under 9½ -115
• 924 New York Mets -1½ +100

View attachment 38849

View attachment 38850

​

 

[mrpickem]

just leaving this
https://streamable.com/n4hkq
https://streamable.com/56qqt

View attachment 38865

 

[mrpickem]

[48-43 -0.16u]
5-5 Yesterday

• 951 Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies Under 11 +100
• 952 Colorado Rockies +106
• 957 Washington Nationals +143
• 959 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 -105
• 963 Cleveland Indians -1½ +125
• 974 New York Mets -1½ +115 (.5u)
• 974 New York Mets -180 (.5u)
• 976 Arizona Diamondbacks -138

View attachment 38872

 

[mrpickem]

one more

• 961 Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs Under 7 +100

 

[mrpickem]

[51-46 -0187u]
3-3-3 Yesterday

• 902 Cincinnati Reds -156
• 903 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +100
• 904 St. Louis Cardinals +1½ -135
• 911 Colorado Rockies -120
• 911 Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -115
• 913 Oakland Athletics -146
• 917 Seattle Mariners -134

My season so far has been a roller coast already, time to hit the UP button

View attachment 38897




View attachment 38896

 

[mrpickem]

Hate laying 156 with Reds, but fish are terrible and a solid trend says bad teams (<40% wins) after 2 or more straight wins is very profitable with huge sample. It is even stronger after the all star break but still strong season long


streak > 1 and WP < 40 and season > 2007

SU: 331-341 (-0.13, 49.3%) avg line: 129.9 / -143.5 on / against: +$7,518 / -$11,282 ROI: +10.5% / -11.4%

RL: 372-295 (0.64, 55.8%) avg line: -112.9 / -101.2 on / against: +$4,957 / -$8,611 ROI: +5.7% / -10.6%


also M's hit most every box today
most profitable team this year 12-2(+11.6u), best team Mar-Apr since last year 28-13, 2nd best road team last 1+ years 51-38 and Leake is the most profitable starter today over L365 days 20-11 +12.2u, etc... not to even mention royos bad points

 

[MNGophs]

Regarding the Reds and this SDQL angle, the ROI and win rate increase when that team is the fav and even more so when they are HF. Thanks for your daily efforts!

 

[mrpickem]

gonna follow the money

• 907 Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs Under 9 -113

View attachment 38902

 

[mrpickem]

[57-48 +1.7u]
6-2 Yesterday

• 951 Pittsburgh Pirates +162
• 953 Philadelphia Phillies -155
• 957 San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8½ -105
• 959 Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8 -115
• 959 Milwaukee Brewers +133
• 964 New York Yankees -215
• 965 Tampa Bay Rays -135
• 969 Oakland Athletics -113
• 975 Houston Astros -138
• 977 Los Angeles Angels +137

Playing a lot of favs today, but I did see two strong trends for favs;
Favs of 150 or more on Friday after a loss over last 3+ years wins 72% for 12.5%ROI (23-3 L25)
View attachment 38911
and also road favs in first game of series off win with total > 8 over last 3+ years wins 66% for 13.6% ROI
View attachment 38910

​

 

[mrpickem]

[64-51 +5.51u]
7-3 Yesterday

• 901 Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals Over 9 +104
• 903 Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants Under 7 -107
• 905 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +110
• 911 San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 -115
• 918 Boston Red Sox -1½ -135
• 921 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -115
• 925 Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Under 10½ -105
• 927 Houston Astros -1½ -115
• 930 Chicago Cubs -192

GULP...all favs so far. Waiting for brewers line so I'll have at least one dog and maybe another.

Team records w/starter since July 1, 2018
View attachment 38927
View attachment 38929

this returns phi, tb, hou
View attachment 38928

 

[mrpickem]

another angle for stros and rays
road favs of 160 or more on saturdays over last 2+ years

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 913 Milwaukee Brewers +135
• 913 Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9 -110

 

[mrpickem]

contrary to popular belief betting big favs has been quite profitable over the last 5 years.
it was basically even in 2012-2013 and really got shelled 2004-2011 all but 2 years, which were even('08, '05)
This year the big favs are down a little so far after a bad start but have won 20 of last 24 and are profitable on RL for year
I'm speaking of favs from 170 to 300 as anything over 300 is kind of crazy to even consider

LINK
View attachment 38931

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 920 Minnesota Twins -1½ +100

 

[mrpickem]

[66-58 +0.73u]
2-7-3 Yesterday

Wow, what a bad day. I was 0'fer until last 2 plays.

• 951 Philadelphia Phillies -162
• 951 Philadelphia Phillies* -1½ -105
• 953 Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals Over 8 +105
• 959 San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8½ +100
• 961 Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9 -105
• 961 Milwaukee Brewers +132
• 966 New York Yankees -1½ +100
• 968 Boston Red Sox -1½ -135
• 974 Kansas City Royals +128
• 975 Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Over 11 -105
• 978 Seattle Mariners +160

:smilecook:

View attachment 38946


​

 

[mrpickem]

[72-63 +1.27u]
6-5 Yesterday

• 901 New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies Under 7½ -110
• 902 Philadelphia Phillies -118
• 912 Boston Red Sox -1½ -135
• 917 Kansas City Royals +119
• 917 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Under 9 +105
• 919 Cleveland Indians/Seattle Mariners Under 7½ -115

kershaw actually most profitable starter going today, since 7/1/18. been awhile since I've seen that
View attachment 38962

Big April favs of 185-240 are returning almost 18% over last 6+ years on RL (BOS today) View attachment 38965



This pic shows teams avg runs allowed innings 6-9, then bullpen avg runs allowed and then profit. Surprising LAA only team allowing less than 1 run avg 6-9, Best bullpen #'s so far turned in by SF, LAA and HOU...worse the pathetic O's while NYM and WAS also pretty bad but their starters seem to bail them out. May be good look for FF in their games?
View attachment 38966

 

[tuck321]

Bauer last 2 115 and 117 horrible history at site and Cleveland pen probably terrible need to look
not too bad

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 914 Minnesota Twins -120
• 913 Toronto Blue Jays/Minnesota Twins Over 8½ -115

Following money, also took NY/PHI under but its already started

 

[mrpickem]

[72-70 -5.73u]
0-7-1 Yesterday

Eight lefties and three Lopez's go today

• 961 Colorado Rockies +115
• 975 Houston Astros -153
• 954 Washington Nationals -1½ +120
• 964 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +125
• 968 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -130
• 973 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Under 9½ -115
• 975 Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics Over 8½ -110
• 977 Cleveland Indians/Seattle Mariners Under 8 -105

View attachment 38985
View attachment 38984

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 961 Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Under 7½ -120

 

[mrpickem]

[79-72 -1.17u]
7-2 Yesterday

• 901 New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 +105
• 905 Cincinnati Reds/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8 -110
• 906 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +120
• 908 Washington Nationals -132
• 913 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Under 9 -115
• 915 Boston Red Sox +106
• 918 Seattle Mariners +1½ -140
• 921 Toronto Blue Jays +138
• 925 Houston Astros -1½ +155
• 927 Pittsburgh Pirates -111

waiting to get stanek too

View attachment 39004​

View attachment 39006

​

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 920 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -120

 

[mrpickem]

[85-77 -1.05u]
6-5 Yesterday

• 955 Los Angeles Dodgers -108
• 957 Philadelphia Phillies -104
• 969 Seattle Mariners +113
• 953 San Francisco Giants/Washington Nationals Over 8 +102
• 954 Washington Nationals -1½ +100
• 966 New York Yankees -1½ -115

View attachment 39013



​

 

[mrpickem]

[88-80 -0.99u]
3-3 Yesterday

• 907 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +150
• 907 Los Angeles Dodgers/Milwaukee Brewers Over 9½ +100
• 909 New York Mets/St. Louis Cardinals Over 9 -110
• 916 Baltimore Orioles +162
• 918 New York Yankees -167
• 920 Detroit Tigers -106
• 923 Houston Astros -220
• 925 Seattle Mariners +110
• 927 Toronto Blue Jays +117
• 929 Atlanta Braves/Cleveland Indians Over 7½ -103

View attachment 39039

Strange shit generally happens on Fridays so I'm playing revenge angle, when todays starter lost vs opp in last game played vs said team in previous season. May be a bit of a reach but has remarkably good returns in sizeable sample. 113-71 61.4% ROI: 20%

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 902 Chicago Cubs -1½ +135
• 901 Arizona Diamondbacks/Chicago Cubs Under 7 -110

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck bud

 

[mrpickem]

2 adds

• 919 Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers Over 8½ -117
• 921 Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays Over 8½ +105

 

[mrpickem]

wth...gonna follow again

• 914 San Diego Padres -123
• 927 Toronto Blue Jays/Oakland Athletics Over 8 -110

 

[mrpickem]

[97-84 +3.9u]
9-4-3 Yesterday :yesfistpump:

• 954 Chicago Cubs -132
• 957 Washington Nationals -1½ -125
• 966 New York Yankees -1½ -123
• 971 Boston Red Sox +136
• 975 Houston Astros -219
• 975 Houston Astros -1½ -140
• 977 Seattle Mariners +107
• 979 Atlanta Braves/Cleveland Indians Over 8½ +100

View attachment 39052

several starters still up in the air for today, here's most of what I got so far since Jul 1
View attachment 39053

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 975 Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Over 10 +104

 

[mrpickem]

[102-88 +5.18u]
5-4 Yesterday

• 901 Washington Nationals -161
• 903 San Francisco Giants/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7 -105
• 904 Pittsburgh Pirates -151
• 909 Arizona Diamondbacks -103
• 905 Los Angeles Dodgers/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8½ -112
• 911 Philadelphia Phillies/Colorado Rockies Over 11 +100
• 915 Minnesota Twins -1½ +105
• 915 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9½ -105
• 918 New York Yankees -1½ -110
• 921 Boston Red Sox +102
• 921 Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays Under 8 -110
• 923 Houston Astros -1½ -120
• 929 Atlanta Braves/Cleveland Indians Over 8 +100

View attachment 39066

View attachment 39068