April Bases

gonna add a couple more overs
  • 909 Arizona Diamondbacks/Chicago Cubs Over 9½ -107
  • 927 Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels Over 9 -115
 
adding
  • 911 Philadelphia Phillies +139
  • 911 Philadelphia Phillies/Colorado Rockies Under 11 -110
Buying out of previous over in COL..no action on total, just paying juice :mad:

83c059ee-3643-4fb1-8f78-aa50d20127cd.png
 
[111-97 +4.21u]
9-9-1 Yesterday
  • 952 Pittsburgh Pirates -140
  • 951 Arizona Diamondbacks/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7½ -115
  • 964 Boston Red Sox -1½ +100
  • 966 Houston Astros -1½ +110
  • 967 New York Yankees/Los Angeles Angels Under 8½ -105
Fairly weak group of starters today although Anderson and Hess have been solid fades last 1/2 season
View attachment 39087

Strange to say the top 3 most profitable teams to this point are TEX, SEA and PIT. Other than PIT they have terrible bullpens, which seem to be near league wide this year. Lot's of unders are losing in last couple innings
View attachment 39089
This pic shows avg runs allowed inn 6-9 in 1st column, then bullpen runs allowed and finally profit + or -
--
team allowing avg 2.5 runs or less over last 9 games(PIT) and both starters off quality starts go under 60% for 13.1% ROI
View attachment 39090

also snakes on road with no rest bringing 13% ROI on under
View attachment 39091

little late, but happy easter ;)

View attachment 39133
 
Last edited:
[113-101 +2.83u]
2-4-1 Yesterday
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -103
  • 929 Seattle Mariners +120
  • 903 Arizona Diamondbacks/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7½ +100
  • 913 Chicago White Sox -1½ +120
  • 913 Chicago White Sox/Baltimore Orioles Over 10 +105
  • 928 Cleveland Indians -1½ -110
Still waiting on lines for a few others...

This season both NYM and SL 15-5-2 to the over while CIN 17-4 under

SEA is $ o away at night since last year
season >= 2018 and team = Mariners and NGT and A
SU: 38-22 (0.45, 63.3%) avg line: 115.1 / -126.0 on / against: +$2,147 / -$2,459 ROI: +33.1% / -31.4%


SEA on road in MAR-APR last 2+ years have been very profitable as well as the OVER
391e6713-5850-4f8c-aefd-7c851cc570de.png


Rays been money at home vs righties since last year. +30.8% ROI on RL
View attachment 39114

b57977f8-4a0c-457f-9870-7812cd1b5e0b.png


summer is def here in Florida :clapping2:

YMUhr1e.jpg
 
  • 961 Los Angeles Dodgers/Chicago Cubs Under 8 +101
  • 964 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -119
  • 965 Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics Over 9½ +105
  • 975 Miami Marlins/Cleveland Indians Over 8½ -115
  • 977 Seattle Mariners/San Diego Padres Over 8½ +100
 
[119-114 -4.78u]
4-6-1 Yesterday

Definitely having a bad week so far...time to turn it around
  • 901 Arizona Diamondbacks/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7 +100
  • 903 Los Angeles Dodgers -112
  • 905 Atlanta Braves +125
  • 907 Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies Over 7½ +100
  • 908 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +110
  • 909 Detroit Tigers/Boston Red Sox Under 9½ -110
  • 910 Boston Red Sox -1½ -105
emot103.gif
​
​
​
 
[123-119 -5.98u]
4-5 Yesterday
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +120 vs Miami Marlins
  • 954 Washington Nationals -174 vs San Diego Padres
  • 957 Colorado Rockies +147 vs Atlanta Braves
  • 957 Colorado Rockies/Atlanta Braves Under 8½ +105
  • 961 Chicago Cubs/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 -105
  • 970 Minnesota Twins -1½ +105 vs Baltimore Orioles
  • 972 Chicago White Sox -129 vs Detroit Tigers
  • 975 Los Angeles Angels -130 vs Kansas City Royals
  • 975 Los Angeles Angels/Kansas City Royals Under 8½ +105
emot103.gif

View attachment 39158
View attachment 39160
 
I am looking at another game. I think I should wait till about an hour before game time to release but that will give you and anyone else who wants to play it plenty of time to get on
 
tuck321 said:
I am looking at another game. I think I should wait till about an hour before game time to release but that will give you and anyone else who wants to play it plenty of time to get on
Click to expand...

I should have listened to you on sorry ass braves yesterday..nice call

I'm also looking at cubbies and maybe one other
 
tuck321 said:
Fired a little early
Click to expand...

Yeah I lost on laa and und but gained a little on nats and rox, so goes the line...

Here's a good one that doesn't come up often and adds fuel to the LAA play.
Revenge factor: when a starter pitched the last game and lost in the previous season vs the current opponent.
117-80 +16.5% ROI
GsTc4MJ.jpg
 
[130-123 -2.33u]
7-4 Yesterday
  • 903 San Diego Padres +148
  • 903 San Diego Padres/Washington Nationals Under 8 -105
  • 906 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +120
  • 908 New York Mets -132
  • 911 Chicago Cubs/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9½ -105
  • 912 Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ -145
  • 916 Minnesota Twins -1½ -130
  • 923 Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Over 8½ -115
  • 925 Los Angeles Angels/Kansas City Royals Over 9 -115
  • 929 New York Yankees/San Francisco Giants Over 7 -120


View attachment 39174
View attachment 39175
​
 
[136-127 -0.68u]
6-4-2 Yesterday
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +125
  • 955 Colorado Rockies +150
  • 955 Colorado Rockies/Atlanta Braves Under 9 +100
  • 957 San Diego Padres/Washington Nationals Over 9 +105
  • 958 Washington Nationals -102
  • 958 Washington Nationals -1½ +185
  • 959 Cincinnati Reds/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7½ -105
  • 962 Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ -160
  • 963 Pittsburgh Pirates/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8 -110
  • 964 Los Angeles Dodgers -1 -127
  • 965 Tampa Bay Rays +136
  • 971 Baltimore Orioles/Minnesota Twins Over 8½ -110
  • 972 Minnesota Twins -190
  • 972 Minnesota Twins -1½ +105
  • 974 Kansas City Royals +108
 
I have been fiddling with a model off and on for a couple years now. I got a lot of the code done to automate the great majority of the process, but still requires manual input and can't be complete until close to gametime. I'd rather not go int all the categories I use, but lets just say it's over 25 different parameters.(No individual stats other that starters and bullpens as a whole) I have been running it continuous this season with 2 updates. Through Thursday I was around 51% winners and almost 53% on value picks(over 10% diff over actual line), and honestly questioning all the effort. I worked several hours Thursday making significant changes and the results have been astonishing so far. I know it's a small sample and no way to maintain this pace, but Fri-Sun it picked 29-14 67% on all games with 16-3 84% value picks. Bear in mind this model is weighted to dogs and predicts close to half dogs to win. There is a lot of weight on this seasons stats so hopefully it can become more consistent as the season moves along. I am not all in on playing all the picks yet, but I am stoked with the results and may be following the picks more often.

View attachment 39231
 
k, I'm going in with model today. Gonna play everything over 9% value and even fade rare under -9% value
4 of 5 dogs...owwwlll
  • 901 St. Louis Cardinals +130
  • 903 Cincinnati Reds +145
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -148
  • 911 Oakland Athletics +122
  • 914 Minnesota Twins +158
View attachment 39233
 
[149-134 +4.82u]
4-2 Yesterday
  • 951 St. Louis Cardinals/Washington Nationals Over 9½ +105
  • 962 Boston Red Sox -154
  • 967 Tampa Bay Rays -165
  • 969 Toronto Blue Jays +131
  • 973 Cleveland Indians -187
  • 977 New York Yankees/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8½ -115
  • 980 Seattle Mariners +133
Went 3-2 on model plays day 1 and made over 2u since I won with some nice dogs. Had chance with doyers but the stripling showed up in relief.
Still doing what I been doing, just being a little more selective for early trendy plays.

View attachment 39240

Teams fair well when starting a trip after a day off and Jays even better that average.
View attachment 39241


Sarah-Chalke.gif
 
OK, day 2 of my model experiment
I had already played TOR, CLE, LAA so no need to add. I did back out of BOS play since model hits again on OAK. Basically no action for me, just pay a little juice.
  • 956 Atlanta Braves -104
  • 959 Los Angeles Dodgers -145
  • 961 Oakland Athletics +143
  • 964 Minnesota Twins +153
  • 976 Texas Rangers -108
  • 977 New York Yankees +135
Everything over 9% value is a play. Flat betting 1u each
9 plays today..5 doggies

View attachment 39245

Funny how yesterday the top 2 highest value plays lost and the other 7 all won. Well actually 6-3 but since I fade any model plays <= -9% I counted the Reds a win since that who I played. Crazy confusing logic I know. I'm kinda mad like that
 
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