Anyone up for some discussion on the Friday card?




My first thought is Cleveland catch the Hawks on a rematch after getting roughed up at home by the Hawks nearly a month ago. Very similar to last year when the Hawks went into Cleveland and won as a 11.5 point dog only to turn around a month later and lose by 9 as a 5 point home dog. It's like deja vu and the Cavs are coming off an ugly loss to the Knicks at home. I hate laying any points on the road, but if the line drops to 2 I'd have to seriously consider the Cavs.
 
Fondy, I'm starting to think the best way to play AGAINST the Suns at home is wait for the halftime line after they're up 15-20 and then bet against them. Seem to have great first halfs with horrid 2nd halfs. Keep in mind I have ZERO data to back that up, but that's what I've noticed.
 
First play I'm considering....

Indy/Seattle OVER 198
I think our boy BAR got in one game too early on the Seattle OVER. Indy should be a little road-fatigued by now, and Seattle should look to run and break out their offense, which is BTW due to break out (overdue? lol). Indy is running this year as well, and should clear 100 vs. the porous Seattle D. These teams have played 6 straight overs and I think this number is quite fair. When I look for overs, I look for close games, b/c very often you can get a last minute with about 10-15 points in it and I think this might be one of those games. I look for this score to be similar to when Sacramento came to town last week, 109-100 kinda game. Seattle's offense is DUE to bust out here.

Anyone got any thoughts on that one?
 
JPicks said:
My first thought is Cleveland catch the Hawks on a rematch after getting roughed up at home by the Hawks nearly a month ago. Very similar to last year when the Hawks went into Cleveland and won as a 11.5 point dog only to turn around a month later and lose by 9 as a 5 point home dog. It's like deja vu and the Cavs are coming off an ugly loss to the Knicks at home. I hate laying any points on the road, but if the line drops to 2 I'd have to seriously consider the Cavs.
Click to expand...

Hughes will still be out though right?
 
Haven't looked at the Seattle game, but I'll take a look.

Speaking of close games that I like an over, the Denver/Minnesota game looks good from my point of view. If there is one place that the TWolves can score it's at home where they're averaging 99.7 a game. Denver doesn't stop anybody and I don't expect them to get blown out by the TWolves after losing at home to them last meeting. I honestly see a 110-107 game that could go either way.

Minny is 4-1 O/U at home
Denver is 5-1 O/U at home and 9-2 O/U overall.

IMO The books missed this # by a good 5 points. 208 or 209 seems like a better #.
 
Agree 100% with that OVER J.

Two tempting revenge spots tomorrow in Cleveland and Denver. I just hate that Cleveland team right now, but King J should do everything in his power to get a W tomorrow.
 
Fondybadger said:
Hughes will still be out though right?
Click to expand...

I think the Cavs have figured out how to play without Hughes at this point. Hughes is always hurt. It's a big game for the Cavs as nobody outside of Cleveland expects a victory in Houston on Saturday.

And ya Hughes is out.
Hughes' Return Not Likely This Week
It sounds more and more like Cavaliers guard Larry Hughes won't play this week. He's missed seven games with a high ankle sprain and said he's not ready to return to practice today at Quicken Loans Arena. ''Every day I'm feeling better and better,'' Hughes said before the New York game. ''I'm just trying to stay on the right path. I don't expect to be out much longer.'' -- Lorain Morning Journal
 
JPicks- Cleveland was my first lean, as I've been waiting for this revenge spot. But, will this not be a dreaded 80% public chalk? And why is the line inching down? I mean, can we really bet a backcourt matchup of Eric Snow and Shannon Brown vs. Claxton and JJ?
 
Ya if the early money all goes towards the Hawks and the line works it's way back to a solid 3 I won't be on any side. It's a similar spot to the Nets earlier this week where you have a 3 point road favorite in a must win situation. I can't get SportNut's thoughts out of my head where he was talking about you expect them to win therefore an easy cover of 3 points. That's basically why I'd need it down to 2. If it got pouned down to 1 I'd still lean the Cavs. I just don't want to see it go to 2 and then get pushed back to 3 at gametime by the "public". It'd be an easy no play for me at that point.
 
Killa said:
First play I'm considering....

Indy/Seattle OVER 198
I think our boy BAR got in one game too early on the Seattle OVER. Indy should be a little road-fatigued by now, and Seattle should look to run and break out their offense, which is BTW due to break out (overdue? lol). Indy is running this year as well, and should clear 100 vs. the porous Seattle D. These teams have played 6 straight overs and I think this number is quite fair. When I look for overs, I look for close games, b/c very often you can get a last minute with about 10-15 points in it and I think this might be one of those games. I look for this score to be similar to when Sacramento came to town last week, 109-100 kinda game. Seattle's offense is DUE to bust out here.

Anyone got any thoughts on that one?
Click to expand...

Like it alot....my best total so far...you can see Indy on the road can allow a ton of points and there offense is clickingnow after a slow start...ha dthe overs in Portland and GS with them...
 
It does remind me of the Nets spot. That loss sapped alot of my confidence in revenge spots like this, which actually form a great deal of my capping. I need to get that Nets shit outta my head. But the Nets then and the Cavs now have one thing in common: a lack of any impressive play on the court. Cavs have been brutal on the road lately. We're not getting any value with the line, so the question is to still play it despite the lack of value, just cuz of how desperate they want it.
 
Honestly I feel like I have two good totals with the Minny/Denver and Pacers/Sonics games and I might just roll with those two. I'm not a trader like SportsNut so I don't need to find anything more. :) I'm starting to hate betting on the Eastern Conference. So much mediocrity.(I don't know if that's a word but it sounded good)

The Pacers lineup switches have definitley lifted them offensively with Granger coming off the bench. I'll take your guys lead on that one and follow suit. Can't think of two other guys I'd rather tail.
 
Anyone else think my boys are in a really great spot tomorrow? Detroit due for a dud and in serious letdown mode after their win tonight, which I know meant a ton to them.
 
Ya I'd probably agree with that. Knicks rolling high after win in Cleveland, but you know it's an Eastern Conference matchup. Who the hell knows?

I'm outta here, but it was good talking about some games. Like to see more of that around here.
 
Yup, I'll turn this into a nightly thing cuz it's quick to do, fun, and it honestly provides me more than looking at stupid matchup pages.
 
Killa said:
Solid Nut. But can Seattle give us 100?
Click to expand...

Well after tonites 1st matchup Det vs Miami where these guys did everything possible to make the game go under and miss a ton of FT's.......which kill momentum... I cant say I am quite sure of anything......I am sure there were alot of Under backers in that one and they all probably had ass backwards reasoning for playing (like history )but they were right and I was wrong.......just disgusted....I dont mind losing if you have the call correct but....who said Wade would 5 of 23 and teams that are about 80% from the line would hit 33 of 50..Shit just frustrates me hell I tell RedBearde the line should be -1 if they were based on actual score predictions rather then perceptions and DET goes and wins by two.....( which I said its a bettter spread play since I can see DEt by 1 or two)just sickens me to have a grasp on a game and lose on it....


Alright well can seattle score a 100? Well who kept them under a 100 at home SA , Orl , Philly ( NJ 99 smae shit as a 100)...Spurs and Magic very similiar type teams with good defenses & half court offenses.........with the 76er game I know you and I had Philly big that nite fading Seattle off that road trip...so will chalk up that low score to dead legs / fatigue/ general flatness...after a successful trip....

So then Indiana:


Regular Season

DateVsScoreTypeIND LineO/U
11/29/06@ Golden State W 108-106Regular SeasonW 6O 205.5
11/28/06@ Portland W 105-97Regular SeasonW -1.5O 187.5
11/26/06@ Toronto L 83-92Regular SeasonL -1U 198.5
11/24/06Cleveland W 97-87Regular SeasonW -2.5U 184.5
11/22/06@ Orlando L 91-96Regular SeasonW 7U 189.5
11/21/06Milwaukee W 93-88Regular SeasonW -4.5U 198.5
11/18/06@ Milwaukee W 102-100Regular SeasonW 4O 198
11/17/06New Jersey L 91-100Regular SeasonL -5O 186.5
11/15/06@ Boston L 88-114Regular SeasonL -2O 193
11/11/06@ Chicago L 80-89Regular SeasonL 6.5U 187
11/10/06Orlando W 93-83Regular SeasonW -5U 194
11/08/06@ Washington L 91-117Regular SeasonL 5O 202
11/07/06Philadelphia W 97-86Regular SeasonW -5.5U 198
11/04/06@ New York W 109-95Regular SeasonW -3O 203
11/03/06New Orleans L 91-100Regular SeasonL -4U 192
11/01/06@ Charlotte W 106-99Regular SeasonW -1O 193.5


So I have 7 of 10 Ind road games seeing 200 pts..the low scoring games were @ Chi which can play D at home , @ Tor with that magical early Sunday start and @ Orl that solid defensive team..the other 7 they have scored or allowed 100..

basically if Seattle is gonna get on track offensively it will be versus Indiana....I mean we have the plodding magic come into town with a 196 total..

Seattle allows 50Fg % at home and Indy 46% away....and Ind allows 38 from three (away)

and Ind playing well offensively now and this game is a coin flip and its 3rd in 4 away for the Pacers.....

Again but what do I know about totals......
 
Killa said:
Anyone else think my boys are in a really great spot tomorrow? Detroit due for a dud and in serious letdown mode after their win tonight, which I know meant a ton to them.
Click to expand...

Knicks on the road....are a thumbs up.....pass at home and pass when they are a public dog otherwise the tend to play well away.....
 
Good shit... I have faith in Indy to score, just need Seattle to keep up... Also, Indy kinda looks too easy as a dog, but I suspect that's pretty much a square play
 
HUNT- You're a Stons guy. You don't think they're flat tomorrow?
 
I tend to agree its not a great ML dog cause I could see Pistons clawing out a 1 maybe 2 pt win but I think Miami ATS is the play there......for the simple fact I think the line should be -1 it would warrant some shot on the ML

That was my post to RedBearde....FRUSTRATING!
 
Killa said:
First play I'm considering....

Indy/Seattle OVER 198
I think our boy BAR got in one game too early on the Seattle OVER. Indy should be a little road-fatigued by now, and Seattle should look to run and break out their offense, which is BTW due to break out (overdue? lol). Indy is running this year as well, and should clear 100 vs. the porous Seattle D. These teams have played 6 straight overs and I think this number is quite fair. When I look for overs, I look for close games, b/c very often you can get a last minute with about 10-15 points in it and I think this might be one of those games. I look for this score to be similar to when Sacramento came to town last week, 109-100 kinda game. Seattle's offense is DUE to bust out here.

Anyone got any thoughts on that one?
Click to expand...

I have to leave, but I'd agree with the *Seattle is due* assessment: just like I was willing to back Over against Toronto off a heap of Unders, Seattle isnt a team built to generate very long spells of Under results. Getting a total sub 200 vs Indy would seem to be the time to look for Over. However, I say that considering only Seattle's recent Under side of things. I haven't followed Indy recently, so fully appreciating their influence on things is an unknown for me in making this post. But I wouldnt be banking on Seattle reeling off 2-3 more consecutive Unders: 5 in 6 games (where their run sits presently) is something they didnt manage at any stage last season.
 
Good evening..............

This is what I have in for Friday............

Wizards over 200Wizards -6.5Hawks over 188Pistons under 199.5Hornets +3Hornets over 184Pacers over 197.5Pacers +2.5Trailblazers over 187.5


Comments to follow
 
I don't see Minny letting Denver run all over them at home... they'd be fools to let Denver run and gun on them.
 
ML Dog: Boston Celtics. I think they have at least a 50/50 shot of winning this game-Celtics are generally good when playing bad teams following games they should have won...
 
Let's start with the Pacers/Sonics................I saw the Pacers play their lst 2 road games.........Pacers are focused, playing hard, healthy, tough on the boards and I think they will win outright at +2.5. The over play on this game was based on the history of these 2 scoring in the hight 190's and that the Pacers can't seem to contain well any longer. They block a few shots, but their second unit doesn't stop anyone.
 
Killa, yeah I think they will be flat...NYK might be a good first half bet actually.
 
Let's look at the Hornets/Bulls. Who are the Bulls to be favored on the road against anyone? SO they beat the Knicks back to back. Big deal. I'll take the Peja and West free Hornets led by Paul and Coach Scott to keep it close. And the total of 184 is low for the Bulls who give up 101 pts on the road. Ok I know some of their road opponents were among the higher scoring teams around, but the pace of this game will be fast if Chicago has any control over it. Can the shorthanded Hornets break 90, I think they can against Chicago.
 
Killa,

The Pacers don't really run with Tinsley at the point. They run a set half court offense as usual but they get a lot of 2nd shots with strong board work. They also commit a lot of fouls and give a lot of fouls too. That adds to the total as you know.
 
Stons tend to struggle when they play down to the level of competition..shit teams seem to hang around Detroit, almost as if the desire isn't there for them...Pistons are a great fade at home as heavy favs against shit teams...this is at NYK getting 7.5 is tasty especially on a B2B, but I can see detroit being down at half then coming back to win and possibly covering so first half might be good...will look into it more.

Great discussion fellas.
 
Pistons under 199.........after a tough game with the Heat, all I would expect out of an overconfident Pistons after a big revenge win on the road is that they will be usual tough in transition defense. The Knicks will be shooting from deep all night and as you know that is not their strength assuming they have a strength at all. The Pistons will lethargically win this game with strong 2nd half 'D'
 
Hawks over 188..............Nobody on Atlanta can stop LeBron and the way Joe Johnson can light it up at home, these 2 can account for 60 pts between them. Then the big boys inside on both teams will get plenty of garbage follow ups and they all commit the cheap fouls. Look for 45 ft attempts between them.
 
I am trying to catch up and trying cap some of these games......I so fucking pissed right now there is steam blowing from ears over that Heat total....I rushed a bit this afternoon looking at....well I just saw thatr I scribbled down 1st game in 5 days for DET.......If that doesnt demand a FLAT performance then what does....there is your logical reason for as UNDER and DET playing like crap!! I had it late last nite but absolutely forgot about it!!! 5 days off.......

So we have established INDY looks attractive ++ points and the over...

Some shit I am working on ~

Trailblazers +4...Hear me out I know Portland looks awful past three games but now Magic are road chalk ?? See what happened to them earlier this year in that role?? So they are +2.5 at Seattle and NOW -4 @ Portland that says they Seattle i 6.5 pts stronger then Portland...I dont think so!! I also know win @ Utah , win @ Seatle and now @ Port ...3rd away game in 4 nites.....you know the Magic will be a square play.....so seriously entertaining that...

Over 216 Suns / Bucks....just look at the past 5 in the series and when MILW plays teams willing to exchange baskets this year...

No way Minny should not be favored at home likem @ PK

The one were I think squares will be on again....Hornets and Over...

First know that Bobby jackson is DOUBTFUL joining Peja and West on the bench it appears. Now go look at NO's bench...Pargo , Simmons ...not much offense..They havent cracked 83 pts last 4 games but scared soem cause of how low they were last time out but I think its due to injuries rather then an off nite...So Bulls as road chalk might be crazy but NO is in trouble...if Chi is not square I might play it but UND 184 looks good despite the Bulls ppg allowed away....


Like the NYK and actually think the over could be worthhile..NY 3rd away in 4 nites and DET getting a back to back should shot better then in Miami!

Really like Boston here and even maybe an Under....

Prelimiary....
 
Blazers over 187.5.............I don't think anyone takes the Blazers seriously and looking at their line-up I don't blame them. The Magic will be relaxed, having won first 2 on west coast swing. Blazers try to play at a fast pace and Orlando will run it down their throat. Blazers giving up 100+ points almost every night.

I will also play the Magic -4.
 
over 201 in washington??? Wiz backcourt has huge size advantage over charlottes... jamison/butler could both have big games with morrison guarding them... ive only watched bobcats play the pistons and right from the start the pistons tried to take advantage of morrison by going to tayshaun.... last point wiz light it up at home
 
Let me back up on one game.............as SportsNut stated above the Hornets are fundamentally flawed due to injuries and lack depth. They are in trouble. Although I respect Coach Scott, I don't think a fast pace can benefit the Hornets at all. So I am not playing wither the Hornets or the Over. I am not going to touch this one. I already played it, but I will reverse my plays and eat some vig.
 
Nut- The most important thing for a gambler, IMO, is to not take it too seriously. Don't beat yourself up over the total. It's one of hundreds of plays you'll play during the season. This may sound corny, but something I do to ease my anger over anything betting-related: I think about really bad shit, like people who have way worse problems. It sounds stupid but it really works. Guys my age getting shot at in Iraq, and I'm throwing a tantrum over my $100 bet? Keeps me in perspective. Just a thought.
 
UNDER in Bulls game is nice too Nut, and Bulls should be good. I mean NOR was a 4 point fav at home vs. TOR and now a 4 point dogg to the Bulls... Bulls are 8 points better than ANY team on a nuetral court? I don't know about that right now... NOK just can't score with anyone... Chandler being up to play his old team actually benefits the Bulls... when he plays with too much emotion he's self destructive.
 
Killa - I just like to know why I am wrong ....I agree with your comments though.....I really couldnt see one reason to play the under( honest not arrogant response) UNTIL I saw last game was Saturday...Life is fucked up for sure...hell I worked in the WTC on 9/11 on the 105th floor you dont have to tell me that twice...BTW..God bless our soldiers...what my problem is sort of 3 fold...I am obsessive compulsive , I am a perfectionist ...I literrally have problems with this , and its never the money its a chess game ..each day like poker you have to prove yourself to be good...in my head to be very good.....sounds corny but I just cant accept being medicore.....

On a happy note 9-2 in CBB +24.25 units(which I looked at for 15 minutes ) puts a smile on my face well only if LAL and the under hit....I just get frustrated when I miss things...had cincy but had Ohio U....

Sometimes just hit the ignore button with me.....
 
Inspek~

Chi is a tough trigger to pull for sure. I agree about the fact they arent 8 points apart...my only flip arguement was that Raps line was way off but still doesnt make much of a dent.......after a bad loss like that people might back CHI so maybe NO will be the play but it should be ugly then....Wolves already moved to -1...would have thought them to be -3...

MM~ If the Portland total drops i like it..
 
Im actually liking clevelnd in that spot especially after a home loss in their last game against the knicks. Now their against a team that beat them as well. Nice little bounce back and revenge angle on this one IMO.
Im also thinking of boston getting points. Toronto had their little streak of playing good ball. But szcerbiak and pierce I think can dominate in that one.
 
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