First let me say good stuff here with this thread. I've been under the weather this week so I havent been posting many thoughts or plays recently, but I'll chime in with these threads when I can. BDK, saw your post at the other place and I agree...there needs to be more substance about the games and less trash. Its almost a no-win situation posting there...and I never get bashed for bad picks and still wonder why I bother sometimes...I know I wouldnt if I got the shit some others get. Anyway, these discussion threads are great....your threads with DanC and Nut 2 years ago at the other place is what made me sign up there in the first place.
Anyway, some quick thoughts...
First some thoughts on revenge. I generally think revenge is better served at home...you beat us at your place now its our turn...especially when home team is favored in both games...like balt/cin nfl and utah/lakers nba last night. Both teams are usually decent enough that theres not a major difference between the 2. Road revenge Im more likely to look for when its a road dog who lost the first game as a home fave. You upset us at our place, now you are favored (and maybe taking us lightly because you beat us at our place, should be even easier at home)...min/no and bos/nyk 2 off the top of my head examples. Im just saying revenge as a road fave is something Im wary of. Obviously to be a road fave in rematch the road fave must have lost at home as a pretty big fave the first time. Big upsets like atl over cle and por over nets you dont see the upset winners as home faves in rematches, meaning you arent likely to have the home team taking the road team lightly thinking 'we beat them already' Home team knew its a big upset and is hungry to show it wasnt a fluke. When its a situation like boston home vs knicks, boston probably thought they had an easy win, and road revenge was served big time by the knicks. Just like port vs nj, atl isnt going to say 'Yes!! we got Cle tonight...we should beat them again' But a home fave who won at the road team might be caught off guard thinking they have it easy, and when its a home fave who lost the first meeting thats the revenge I like the best. Part of revenge is obviously the team who lost first meeting should be fired up, but another part I feel is looking to see if the team who won first meeting might not be as hungry...i.e. letdown..which I see happening more with good teams having letdown against bad team in revenge spot, compared to a bad team having letdown at a rare chance at a sweep. That all said, the fact atl beat cle in OT at cle is the biggest con to my thoughts of playing unpopular small spread home team ATL...and also gives me pause in thinking of playing minny. But there is no way Im playing road teams in those games.
What a shock I love portland tonight. Orlando coming off b2b road dog wins...now a consensus road fave and everyone is on their jock (just like at memphis) Portland's recent lack of success at home makes me like this even more...this team will have its fair share of home dog upsets, and this is the perfect spot imo.
Other thoughts:
sea/ind Im a little surprised seattle is such a consensus play...I thought they might be an unpopular fave given their lack of recent success and indy coming off 2 road wins. I was looking more to fade indy on this road trip, esp after 2 straight road wins, but Im not touching this popular fave. Im not taking the road dog either....pretty easy pass for me. I would lean over but will probably pass as Im worried about indy going 3 straight road games with 100+...you would think they should at seattle, but thats exactly when the unexpected might happen and indy lays an egg.
tor/bos...actually tempted with boston here, but I generally dont like going against toronto at home...no one likes to go there and I always feel canadian teams have a big home edge...another easy pass....over????
was/cha, dal/sac...blah
det/nyk...actually have an over lean with det overs at home and knicks coming off an upset win (which should lead to no D)...both teams in letdown spots which I think happens on the D end
phx/mil...no toucher on the side...phx is capable of blowing this team out, but Im not laying the points. Not that popular of a fave for phx...its because the line looks too high..but its still chalky. I might ride brewers on the over here...usually phx at home is heavy consensus over, now you get an over team with mil combined with a high total and phx home unders and people are scared away...this could be a massive scorefest. 5 straight homeunders for phx and milwaukee coming off road dog win (letdown = no defense) Gotta like jumping on phx over at home when the bandwagon is empty.
no/chi...I know hornets suck right now and have big time injury issues, but this line looks strange...its actually close to the ever so rare unpopular road fave..and thats not surprising as this line looks fishy that chicago is a solid road fave. This looks fishier to me than most 'trap' lines people yap about. Its as tempted as I get to playing a road fave, if I do it will be small. Under is a thought here too but Chicago has been scoring recently, and it maybe a little late with hornets having 4 straight unders and last 3 under 80 pts...thats not going to last forever.
min/den I do lean minny as unpop small fave, but I am wary of the revenge and might just play it small (which I dont post) I usually dont like going over with minny, but they are 5-1 over at home and even if it is denver this total looks too high for a minny game...200+?? They only had 1 total 200+ at home last year...and that was seattle (under) The total was 191 in the phx home game last year. Anyway, I lean over here as my thought process is to go with it...its high for a reason. Denver is such an over team but seem to be a consensus under often with these high lines.
port and atl are both side leans at least...as far as totals. I would generally lean both unders...port as home dog and I usuaully like going under cle games when consensus is on the over (note last game vs knicks a rare cle consensus under) Im just glad I havent been playing atl overs as I realized early on that wasnt going to be cash like its been in the past. Still have a hard time going under with them, esp since I missed the boat. I havent played an ATL total yet this year, and its not starting tonight. Portland I might look for a 2h under if the 1h goes over and port is in the game.
Side leans:
PORTLAND (100%)
ATL, MIN (probably play small)
CHI (tempted but likely to pass)
Total leans:
det.nyk OVER
mil.phx OVER
bos.tor OVER
den.min OVER
Im usually an under player, but tonight Im leaning more overs. I would lean under in port, atl, dal, noh but those are all doubtful.
GLTA!!!!!!
