6 teamer to win $5,150... All I need is Buckeyes ML... What would you do?

Y

...Young Turk...

Active Member
Hello everybody,

Although I never post, I already feel I know many of you. I have been following alot of you guys since the Cover days (probably 4-5 years, atleast) and migrated over here when CTG was created. B.A.R., Sportsnut, CollegeKingRex, etc... the list goes on.... I have been using your insight for many a years now... so thank you. Here is the situation... I placed the parlay shown at the bottom of the post at the beginning of the bowl season and I was wondering what you guys would do... I could hedge half the amount (I personally think if lsu wins they cover), or I could let it ride... just want some opinions. The buckeyes have been one of my favorite plays since the line came out so I dont really feel like hedging although it is probably the smart thing to do.

Buckeyes got the better coach, a beast at RB, and a very good defense... All reasons why I believe the Buckeyes can win this game. I know all about LSU and the speed... I also know that michigan beat florida.
Just as a fun little note, Tressel destroyed Miles in their only other bowl meeting when Miles was coaching Okie St. Good luck tonight everybody. Opinions welcome.

Ticket # 34577909 Placed: ONLINE-1 on: 12/07/2007 @ 05:43 PARLAY (6 TEAMS) Risking: 50.00 To Win: 5152.17
12/23/2007 @ 05:10 PM [341] E CAROLINA +13-150 (B+2) - CFB
12/29/2007 @ 10:00 AM [414] WAKE FOREST -150 - CFB
12/31/2007 @ 11:10 AM [455] FRESNO ST +160 - CFB
12/31/2007 @ 04:50 PM [461] AUBURN +110 - CFB
01/03/2008 @ 05:25 PM [477] KANSAS +145 - CFB
01/07/2008 @ 05:00 PM [491] OHIO ST +180 - CFB

:hang:
 
Seems like you could use the money..Partially hedge out of it, grab a beer and enjoy the game with less pressure.
 
HEDGE 4 SHO

Not because Im a homer. I think OSU has at least a 40% chance to win.
That is saying alot coming from me.

But why risk something that is less likely than likely to happen according to current odds and be greedy when you can guarantee a return with an LSU ML play or some other combination.
 
hey true,

why does it seem like i could use the money? because i threw $50 on a parlay for fun? I have been betting on every one of those bowl game i got in the parlay so I am actually doing very well this bowl season.
 
well, if you are questioning whether or not you should hedge a bet for 100x the amount you originally placed and post it in a forum, I assume you are taking it rather seriously (as you should). I'm just saying that if you're worried about it, you could probably use another $5000 in your wallet. No offense intended,
 
definately hedge... i learned the hard way when had tigers 100/1 to in the world series in 2006 and the cardinals series price was in the +240 range... perfect oppurtunity to hedge but i got greedy and we all know how that turned out.
 
considering State had the best odds to lose out of all of your plays in the parlay, i would hedge. I'd lay LSU ML for whatever you wanted to be guaranteed. Watch the game knowing you won 2500, instead of fretting over that 5k all night. BTW, LSU wins this game.
 
hedge. guarentee yourself the $$$.

be happy and thankful to have won a few g's in the college bowl season, and you'll be able to watch the game tonight with no worries tonight....


congrats man! :cheers:
 
option 1

I could have let it ride and won $5150 but at least I hedged and have $2500


option 2

I could have hedged and won $2500 but now that LSU won I have ZERO


I could wake up 1/8 with option 1 and be ok, would not want to play 'what if' with option 2


thus



for me it would be HEDGE


Good job on getting the parlay to this point and good luck with your play
 
hedge it for 2k on LSU - the points not the money line. If you lose on money line it is minus 155 to 160 not worth it.
 
This reminds me of a vanzack hot topic... Hedging is for pussies.. Let it ride;)
 
tee*dub said:
This reminds me of a vanzack hot topic... Hedging is for pussies.. Let it ride;)
Click to expand...

I totally agree. Why bother to buy a parlay card with the last game being the title game and hedge. But then again, that's just me. Heck I lost that much last night on that damn over of the BG/Tulsa game.

If it's like that, you should have just buy a 5 teamer and already know the result and have more cash to mess it with on tonight's game.

GL either way!

:cheers:
 
in what could be the stupidest thing i have ever done.... I threw a good chunk of my bowl winnings on the buckeyes...

2,500 on osu +4
1,500 on osu +2 f.h.

500 on under 23 f.h.

gl everybody.

'an_horse'
 
With all due respect Turk,

Are you insane? You must love the "action" part of gambling more than money.....because it's really hard to fathom for me how you don't hedge out at least a little bit to guarantee a profit.

But to top it off....when essentially you've already got OSU ML for 5,150

you ADD more on the 1st Half and for the game? Wow. If OSU doesn't cover any of those you're DOWN 4,150 when you could've had a spot where you guaranteed at least a 2 grand profit.

You've got much bigger balls than I do man......or maybe I've seen way to many "sure thing" opinions I've had go up in smoke.

Regardless of what I think, GL bro......
 
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this just makes me sad.....guy kills it in the post season, goes 5-1 with his sides and in one night gets wacked for 4500......ugh.

Sorry about the beat man......I hope you learned something about discipline, managing your bankroll and guaranteeing a sure profit out of this experience if nothing else.....
 
Was this guy serious? I've had some bad beats but this was sheer stupidity. No offense.
 
i am speechless

I know under my name it says "Gamblers Anonymous Dropout" but I'm not so sure I am alone anymore on that one

and no man, I'm not trying to throw salt on your wounds but there were many posts that made sense above to hedge this $50 bet
 
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i am in the minority on this one.
i think hedging as a general rule is BAD money management.
first ... you are already getting slightly the worst of it in a parlay bet as compared to a straight bet .. as far as true odds are concerned.

second , you can never hedge out of parlays where the first part or parts lose.

so you are hedging on your wins and losing outright on your losses. This increases the juice you are paying DRAMATICALLY. From a straight EV standpoint , it is bad business in my opinion.

That is just from a professional gambling perspective. Recreationally , i understand the want to lock up a profit.
 
My whole problem is that this was a 100x his investment if he won.

Why not make sure you walk away with 50x your investment
 
vegaskyle said:
i am in the minority on this one.
i think hedging as a general rule is BAD money management.
first ... you are already getting slightly the worst of it in a parlay bet as compared to a straight bet .. as far as true odds are concerned.

second , you can never hedge out of parlays where the first part or parts lose.

so you are hedging on your wins and losing outright on your losses. This increases the juice you are paying DRAMATICALLY. From a straight EV standpoint , it is bad business in my opinion.

That is just from a professional gambling perspective. Recreationally , i understand the want to lock up a profit.
Click to expand...

Yeah the thing is your trying to apply logic and professional gambling to parlays. That would be an oxymoron no? This is a defined one event situation where you get an enormous payout from a small "fun" play. When you get to the last leg and you have a day or more to hedge (Be Smart) you should do it EVEN when you are 100% convinced you are on the right side. If a professional gambler doesnt understand or support that then no wonder there are very few professional gamblers.

Parlays as a rule are No No's in every professional gambling book I have heard of. Knowing what we knew I can't see an intelligent rational being answer his question with dont hedge its the wrong thing to do.

In closing, I understand your intent kyle but as you know parlays and professional gamblers rarely if ever go together. I know from experience hedging rarely gets me the middle when I attempt it with straight plays.
 
ok lets say he is way above average handicapper and can pick a 6 team parlay of this kind correctly 1 out of 100 times he bets it.

He will likely have several ( 1 to 3 ?? not really wanting to do the detailed math , just shooting from the hip so anyone who wants to take the time to take a shot at it , go ahead ) chances to hedge out. In this case .. has to LAY heavy money on the lsu moneyline in order to hedge. Just giving away your profits on your winners ..... and no way to get off of parlays where one of the first parts loses. From a pure math angle, it takes a lesser EV ( parlays vs straight bets ) and makes it even worse. If you need the money for rent ... well that is a totally different story.
 
ok well I would never expect even a great handicapper to attempt 100 6 team parlays. I always considered parlays throw away plays. As in that money just got thrown away unless I get lucky.

the real issue here is that the guy asked for advice got sound advice ignored it and then proceeded to place more wagers on the same side and related sides and doubled the pain of not taking the advice he asked for and quickly received.
 
vegaskyle said:
ok lets say he is way above average handicapper and can pick a 6 team parlay of this kind correctly 1 out of 100 times he bets it.

He will likely have several ( 1 to 3 ?? not really wanting to do the detailed math , just shooting from the hip so anyone who wants to take the time to take a shot at it , go ahead ) chances to hedge out. In this case .. has to LAY heavy money on the lsu moneyline in order to hedge. Just giving away your profits on your winners ..... and no way to get off of parlays where one of the first parts loses. From a pure math angle, it takes a lesser EV ( parlays vs straight bets ) and makes it even worse. If you need the money for rent ... well that is a totally different story.
Click to expand...

I agree the situation being a +ML did make things even more dicey.

Had it been the normal OSU+4 and he could get LSU-4 or better yet a -3 or -3 1/2 then it would be more of a must to make the hedge.

I gotcha kyle. No doubt you laid it out in understandable terms I just couldnt wrap my thoughts around considered a parlay a wager.
I like them but understand its "throw away" plays for the most part.
 
I would say a very high percentage of professional gamblers are prisoners to the math.

and i agree that most professional handicappers do not do parlays in general ( though there have been proven systems in the past ... sure most are aware of the hockey dog plus a goal and half to the under parlay systems that worked so well a decade ago ( prior to rule changes) and made lots of folks lots of money. So it is not out of the question for pros to do parlays.)

hell , i am not even saying that i wouldnt do what is mathematically the wrong thing ... i prolly would have hedged some too. But i think it would be a mistake by me.
 
the real issue here is that the guy asked for advice got sound advice ignored it and then proceeded to place more wagers on the same side and related sides and doubled the pain of not taking the advice he asked for and quickly received.

ok i can agree with this. whole heartedly
 
i just cant believe he asked for our opinions, we basically all said hedge at least some of it....and then not only did he ignore those opinions, but went ahead and laid 5k more on tOSU.. unreal.
 
This shows how greed and emotion kan screw up a gamblers mind so he makes irrational decisions.

This guy put himself in a position to lose, so he deserved to lose.

And even had he won, he would have pissed the gains away sooner or later, because he gets carried away in some betting situation.
 
Alright, read all the bashing so here it goes... I simply asked what would you guys do? Just wanted to know what the consensus was... I KNOW that hedging was the sensible play. I just wanted to know what all my other fellow degenerates would do.
As far as money management, there are times when I will hedge without a doubt. But I was already up over $10,000 for the bowl season, the buckeyes were one of my favorite picks, and I had invested all of $50 into that parlay. Alot of people will read this and think riiiigght. This guy was really up $10,000?! I read all the time about people trying to make $1000 or $5000 out of 100 bucks.... It seems like horseshit, but I have done it many of times in my life. YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW YOU DO IT? Have some balls... You have to trust your picks and let it ride sometimes... I wonder what all you bashers were thinking when the buckeyes were up 10-0?
Anyhow, I really did appreciate the feedback from all you guys. But for those of you who are bashing me for what I did and saying I wasted your time by not taking your advice? Gimme a break... I smell pussy. Greed? Emotion? C'mon guys. Grow some balls. There is a reason why some people make alot of money doing this, and its not by hedging everytime or betting $100 every game hoping to hit %60. What is the point of gambling. Not just to make money, I gamble to make ALOT of fucking money. PEACE.
 
In addition, I am still up $5000 from the bowl season... I wonder how many of you bashing me are even truthfully up? At least I showed some proof of what my picks actually were. Yeah, I could have been up $7,000 more.... But I also could have ended up with 20k. Two ways of looking at things I guess.
 
:shake:

No need for total bashing. Turk, I am sure the guys were just looking out for you. It was a good discussion in this thread before and after.
 
Well I'll give you the fact that it took some balls to come back and reply. I for one thought I had seen the last Young Turk post at CTG. I'm not going to bash you, but I will offer you some advice. Take it or leave it as it won't affect me either way.

If you want to bet a 6 team 50 dollar parlay where all six occurences take place on different days make them all straight wagers. Bet 50 on the first game and then take your winnings and bet it on the 2nd game. Continue doing this for all six plays. It's mathematically the best play you can make. That way rather than "hedging" and losing EV you can simply play less on the final game than you originally wanted.

You can have all the balls in the world and bet ALOT of money all day long, but if you're not betting with math on your side you're going to be losing out on money.
 
Kyle, thanks.

B.A.R. thanks.

J. Picks. thanks for the info. Just for people to know, I will throw in small parlays all the time... I have actually done quite well them. $50 bucks people? I use 500 as a unit so c'mon. I was betting on every one of those games along the way so your theory of betting one by one is understood. But I have gotten hot before and I will put in small parlays to reward myself if I actually do go on a 5 or six game streak.

For all the rest of you... I say this to friends and my wife all the time...
YOU GOTTA HAVE THE BALLS TO EVER GET YOURSELF IN A POSITION TO WIN ALOT OF MONEY IN THE FIRST PLACE. NO GUTS, NO GLORY.
 
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