RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya that was bad.
Time to post my bowl card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
Ya that was bad.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well, i didn't know Falk was out. No one else seemed to either. Not sure if it bled over to the defense which was solid early or not or if the defense tired. Assuming that answer is no, they had a hard time defending the option plays. No regrets unless the Falk thing was something I should have known before the line move. I have to bet that and live with the result. Sorry for anyone who tailed. i was extra confident in that play and trumpeted it pretty good all week. Sorry for being wrong.
Just wrong on TCU stanford total. The two offenses did way more than one would need for that total to go over.
Just wrong on TCU stanford total. The two offenses did way more than one would need for that total to go over.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I also thought the Michigan State play calling was good. They pounded them up the middle with the rock and then used a lot of misdirection to use the Washington State defensive speed against them. Pac12 with a couple more losses tonight ... starting to get ugly for that conference.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The tough part is that they have either looked slow or looked smaller & weaker in most of the games. Even in their win, the Utes played about as bad as they are capable. WVU was just worse.
Huskies will be the exception
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
TAMU/Wake over the total:
1. Wake forest is 107th in total defense, 94th in rushing defense, and 104th in pass defense. That is a total yards measure. They were 28th in ypa allowed at 6.6 per play, and 76th in yards per carry allowed. We will get to that later. Tamu has Starkel back from surgery and the extra time is extra good for him heading into this game. They rushed for just 4.10 yards per carry but play quite a few decent rush defenses on the year and were battling through some tough games when Mond was first getting going. Incidentally I would expect to see Mond lead a drive in each half. I thought Mond improved a lot as the year went on. The Aggies passing offense was pretty average for the year, but if you just look at the Starkel starts, it is much better. They averaged 7.2 yards per attempt. Only Auburn and Mississippi State ran more plays offensively in conference than TamU did.
2. Tamu gave up roughly 389 yards per game at roughly five and half yards per play, both of which are pretty average nationally. Their aggregate rush defense stats show a slightly above average rush defense but a lot of that was skewed by early success. They allowed over 200 yards rushing in six of their last seven. The Ags gave up 7.4 yards per pass attempt and that along with their total pass yards allowed per game were pretty average. So basically, they were an average defense, though they did do a good job of creating sacks. Only louisville and lamar jackson averaged more yards per pass out of the ACC than did Wofford and Wake Forest, who averaged 8.5 ypa. Wofford likely gets rewarded with a lot of pass attempts this game and the kid is a straight gamer.... meaning, I don't think it is very likely at all that this kid is a complete no show like Hicks for SMU or Benkert for UVA or any number of other horrific bowl performances we have seen so far.
3. The pace should be fast. Wake Forest defended 3 more plays per game than the next defense in the nation in 2017, at 85.7 plays per game. Texas AM defended an average of 75.3 plays per game themselves. Meanwhile both Wake and TAMU averaged about 73 plays per game on offense. You get the idea ... there rates to be a lot of plays in this game and in both instances, I think the offenses have slight advantages.
Lots of plays and a likelihood of success within that subset, coupled with both teams being likely to contribute to the scoring forcing the opponent to continue scoring, leads me to the over.
good luck
1. Wake forest is 107th in total defense, 94th in rushing defense, and 104th in pass defense. That is a total yards measure. They were 28th in ypa allowed at 6.6 per play, and 76th in yards per carry allowed. We will get to that later. Tamu has Starkel back from surgery and the extra time is extra good for him heading into this game. They rushed for just 4.10 yards per carry but play quite a few decent rush defenses on the year and were battling through some tough games when Mond was first getting going. Incidentally I would expect to see Mond lead a drive in each half. I thought Mond improved a lot as the year went on. The Aggies passing offense was pretty average for the year, but if you just look at the Starkel starts, it is much better. They averaged 7.2 yards per attempt. Only Auburn and Mississippi State ran more plays offensively in conference than TamU did.
2. Tamu gave up roughly 389 yards per game at roughly five and half yards per play, both of which are pretty average nationally. Their aggregate rush defense stats show a slightly above average rush defense but a lot of that was skewed by early success. They allowed over 200 yards rushing in six of their last seven. The Ags gave up 7.4 yards per pass attempt and that along with their total pass yards allowed per game were pretty average. So basically, they were an average defense, though they did do a good job of creating sacks. Only louisville and lamar jackson averaged more yards per pass out of the ACC than did Wofford and Wake Forest, who averaged 8.5 ypa. Wofford likely gets rewarded with a lot of pass attempts this game and the kid is a straight gamer.... meaning, I don't think it is very likely at all that this kid is a complete no show like Hicks for SMU or Benkert for UVA or any number of other horrific bowl performances we have seen so far.
3. The pace should be fast. Wake Forest defended 3 more plays per game than the next defense in the nation in 2017, at 85.7 plays per game. Texas AM defended an average of 75.3 plays per game themselves. Meanwhile both Wake and TAMU averaged about 73 plays per game on offense. You get the idea ... there rates to be a lot of plays in this game and in both instances, I think the offenses have slight advantages.
Lots of plays and a likelihood of success within that subset, coupled with both teams being likely to contribute to the scoring forcing the opponent to continue scoring, leads me to the over.
good luck
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
NCST minus the pts
I probably found the Pac12 team that will show up for no reason. They do have the advantage of their fired coach remaining for the bowl game. The two teams sport fairly even statistical offenses but when you get to the defensive side of the ball, ASU has been really bad. And that is the difference in the game today. I do have some concern with the expectation that ASU will acclimate to playing in El Paso more than NCST. A lot of east coast teams seem to not want to be in this city and bowl. Over is probably worth a look but I will lay off that.
I probably found the Pac12 team that will show up for no reason. They do have the advantage of their fired coach remaining for the bowl game. The two teams sport fairly even statistical offenses but when you get to the defensive side of the ball, ASU has been really bad. And that is the difference in the game today. I do have some concern with the expectation that ASU will acclimate to playing in El Paso more than NCST. A lot of east coast teams seem to not want to be in this city and bowl. Over is probably worth a look but I will lay off that.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Uk nw under
Some concerns with this under are the fact that just about all of these low totaled bowl games have found a way over the total even when they shouldn't. For this game we have two teams who are well below average in yards per play on offense. The NW defense has been playing excellent defense the second half of the year and while uk defensively has struggled some, they have played more prolific offenses than what NW brings to the table. A big factor to this game will be the pace of the game .. if it takes on a more uk feel then we get great pace to convert this thing into an under but if it takes on a nw feel, then we may see too many plays to keep this game under. I don't see a bunch of big play guys in this game so I am hoping the TD drives are of the grinder variety.
Some concerns with this under are the fact that just about all of these low totaled bowl games have found a way over the total even when they shouldn't. For this game we have two teams who are well below average in yards per play on offense. The NW defense has been playing excellent defense the second half of the year and while uk defensively has struggled some, they have played more prolific offenses than what NW brings to the table. A big factor to this game will be the pace of the game .. if it takes on a more uk feel then we get great pace to convert this thing into an under but if it takes on a nw feel, then we may see too many plays to keep this game under. I don't see a bunch of big play guys in this game so I am hoping the TD drives are of the grinder variety.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
NMSU is largely a value play coupled with a motivation play. These kids want to win this game. As we have seen in other bowl games, that matters a lot. Teams seem relatively even to me so the pts are a freebie. No need to break this one down thoroughly for you ... I just think NMSU tries hard for 60 and I am not sure the same applies to utah state.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Good luck today. I most likely won't watch a game until the USC-TOSU affair. The BIg has dominated the Pac so far this bowl season. Hoping we get a bowl classic in that one instead. Tons of thoughts from me on that game throughout the forum, including this thread. It ain't my favorite play of bowl season and obviously the conference v conference toughness factor seems to be a problem for the pac teams and that could happen again. please no.
gamblinjunkie
Pretty much a regular
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Two of the four teams you mentioned had better yards per play average than NW though. And Florida was basically the same.
And they held three of those four teams under 400 yards which is all we would need in this game, I think. Since the NW yards per play average is so bad (again assuming it isn't one of those NW crazy pace games). NW did feast a little on the bad defenses they faced as compared to the good defenses they faced and uk definitely is closer to the later than the former.
Obviously, that is the more worrisome team with the ball.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya .. as bad as the uk defense is .. my real concern for them yielding pts is nw running a crap ton more plays than them if they cannot move the ball at all on the NW D. I am thinking they are competent enough to get a few first downs and punt. NW generally has to grind out their drives. They were 126th in plays from scrimmage that resulted in 30 yards or more. UK was pretty bad at defending third downs though and the NW playbook has a ton of plays designed for 5-10 yard gains. So that could be problematic as far as stopping the long drives.
Believe it or not ... I think both teams will be motivated.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
That sounds like Michigan fan thinking TOSU rolls but would rather cheer for the tosu opponent to end the season.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The oddity for me is that I generally do cheer for TOSU (I was born in dayton and have a lot of family that are buckeye fans and UD fans). And I have generally cheered against USC in my life ... the cheating by Lane Kiffin and Pete Carroll, the bologna and clearly undeserved heisman for R Bush, the overwhelming officiating advantages they have gotten in pac12 play over the years, the pretty boy entitled attitude of some of their players, and so on .... just never liked them. But I guess I have to cheer against TOSU and for USC tonight. At least if I am wrong it means that cheating-shit program took a curb stomping.
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
#Metoo
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think it is 60% no 40% yes with 2 minutes to go.
It will be very hard for the books to make a 2h total on this game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Also, I was at that game of the mountain incident.
I had a terrible weekend of bad beats that weekend. That was when someone called a timeout for no reason to kick a covering meaningless fg in the miami-florida game (and i think i had a bad number for insult to injury) and then I had a backdoor td, followed by recovered onside followed by another backdoor TD to lose an under bet .. and some other shenanigans that weekend. I was in el paso and went to the game with my high school buddies. In fact Texasfight/jesusshuttlesworth was at the game with me. I want to say I left that trip a day earlier than I had planned because I was not happy and was willing to blame the city of El Paso rather than myself.
How was that for too much information?
I had a terrible weekend of bad beats that weekend. That was when someone called a timeout for no reason to kick a covering meaningless fg in the miami-florida game (and i think i had a bad number for insult to injury) and then I had a backdoor td, followed by recovered onside followed by another backdoor TD to lose an under bet .. and some other shenanigans that weekend. I was in el paso and went to the game with my high school buddies. In fact Texasfight/jesusshuttlesworth was at the game with me. I want to say I left that trip a day earlier than I had planned because I was not happy and was willing to blame the city of El Paso rather than myself.
How was that for too much information?
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Golden.
indeed!
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Never been to a game in the Sun Bowl....love the setting. Cool how it's carved into a mountain more or less.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
let's hope they are wrong. I am certain we get effort though. If we lose it will be because we are outplayed and not because we took the day off.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Trying to figure out the Taxslayer bowl and it isn't easy. I have a feeling that i am waiting to see if there is anything to try at halftime. I actually think I had an under lean prior to the missing defenders. Now I just cannot bring myself to do it. I may skip the game altogether and just cheer for Lamar since he is my favorite current player in cfb. I dunno .. will wait until halftime and see if anything stands out ... I keep capping and recapping the game and keep spinning around in circles on it.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Do we know why the ref through Bell out of KY game? It looked like he hot his feelings hurt at having his help unwanted, unless the rb dropped an f bomb. Terrinle, tertible decision by ref. Should not work anymore games
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think we all have to decide for ourselves whether that is a penalty and ejection (I say "Yes", as there can never ever be a slippery slope on this particular infraction). After the game Snell responded to questions about the incident with "I like to play football" which is him basically not taking responsibility or accountability for his bad decision.
I think my opinion on this is generally in the minority, though.
Anyway, here is Snell initiating the contact and grabbing and pushing the refs hands away while throwing a baby tantrum. What a mistake.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Hopefully it is a learning moment for the kid and he can learn to control his impulses going forward. Not just for football but in life in general. That type of impulse response is the kind of thing that can even get an otherwise good kid into a lot of trouble when partying at night. He will probably be a professional player some day and now people know it is super easy to get under his skin and get a physical response. People may try it. He needs to learn to control this. It is clear Stoops didn't use it as a teaching moment but maybe he will during the offseason.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I’m sorry, without audio this is ridiculous. There was no forcible shove, nor malicious looking intent. He had to have dropped an F-Bomb or something.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It would be hard to believe that he did that without throwing out an expletive. I am more forgiving of that (The F bomb flies around a football field all day).. unless he added the word "you" afterwards, it probably doesn't mean that much. Meaning, if he said something like "I don't need your fucking help" or "throw a fucking flag" or something like that, it is different than saying "fuck you, man".
But you make a good point ... if he 1. had negative contact with the official (this happened for 100% certainty) 2. Showed up the official (this happened with certainty) and 3. Used ugly language directed at the official (we don't know, but seems probable) ... well if he did all that .. he hit for the cycle on being an idiot.
But you make a good point ... if he 1. had negative contact with the official (this happened for 100% certainty) 2. Showed up the official (this happened with certainty) and 3. Used ugly language directed at the official (we don't know, but seems probable) ... well if he did all that .. he hit for the cycle on being an idiot.
