Time to post my bowl card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It's true. I said similar in a text tonight.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I regret though that we don't get them twice a year in hoops, I really miss those games especially when GW was still at MD. Somehow the BIG just pales in comparison....prob actually never get over it. Will never be as good, as the rivalries hatred etc...just can't be developed in a short time. It's all about cash I guess...unfortunately.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well, I grew up on the BigEast and that will never be the same. The thought of missing a Cuse/Georgetown game back then was not even something that could enter the brain.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Eh. The school basically through the lacrosse program under the bus, to include the firing of the coach. I wouldn't not hate on Duke just for that, though I deeply sympathize with those players and that coach and all their families. The accuser went on to commit attempted murder on her boyfriend. Fwiw.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
How are you currently feeling about Texas +3?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I like it. Hermie sounded pretty confident in his Presser. He said if one of these kids cannot get up for this game then they should quit football. So I think he has their attention for the game. Return to Houston ... so bowl game in Texas where all he has done since he got there is talk about how Texas needs to start winning Texas recruits again. I like them to be motivated and the style of offense is obviously nothing new to them. I think they can have quite a bit of success offensively against the Mizz D and I made it a 1 point spread (can't remember which way off the top of my head but want to say Mizz -1) which basically means I think it is a coin flip on paper. Mizz OC thing helps as well. I think they win.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I didn't have a lean really ...
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Just gonna give my reasoning because it seems an odd bet after what we saw first half.
Purdue receives the kick. If they go down and score, I think I get some vanilla play out of it. If they get stopped, I think I am immediately in the driver seat. Arizona didn't do all that much on offense the first half. The 4th down fail by purdue basically handed them a score. I have little doubt that if Zona scores, Brohm will coach to score ...
I hate this game .. should have tailed my capping amigo on Purdue and didn't.
Purdue receives the kick. If they go down and score, I think I get some vanilla play out of it. If they get stopped, I think I am immediately in the driver seat. Arizona didn't do all that much on offense the first half. The 4th down fail by purdue basically handed them a score. I have little doubt that if Zona scores, Brohm will coach to score ...
I hate this game .. should have tailed my capping amigo on Purdue and didn't.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Pretty good home crowd for the Horns in the game tonight, I thought and I think it helped. Nicely pulled down a profit in each game. Cannot complain about that. Will have thoughts incoming on some of tomorrows action. The Donald Trump bowl is the only one left that I need to find a play.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
:claphands:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Oklahoma State minus the pts:
1. Similar Strength of Schedule
2. Very significant difference in yards per play offensive production in favor of OSU
3. Significant difference in yards per play defense in favor of VT
4. Common opponents vs Defense:
Pittsburgh - 366 yards at 5.81 yards per play vs VT (VT home)
Pittsburgh - 391 yards at 5.67 yards per play vs OSU (OSU away)
West Virginia - 592 yards at 6.65 yards per play vs VT (Vt semi-neutral Landover Maryland)
West Virginia - 347 yards at 4.82 yards per play vs osu (OSU away)
a.) of extra note is that WVUs offense has roots in what OSU does on offense, just with lesser players at the skill positions. Based on what WVU was able to do, I would expect OSU to be able have success. And as the WVU game was the season opener, I feel the "Bud Foster will find a way to stop oklahoma state with time to prepare" argument a little weak.
5. I think the better QB clearly sits on the side of OSU and the better coach. That is a tough combo to overcome with significant edges elsewhere.
6. I don't see significant motivational angles to counteract the above
Stanford/TCU under
1. TCU giving up just 328 yards per game while playing in a very good offensive conference
2. Strength of the Stanford offense is the running back and the running game. TCU one of four teams that gave up less than 100 yards per game on the ground and one of about seven teams that gave up less than 3 yards per carry. Moreover, TCU has been great at stopping large gain runs which is obviously a big deal given what Love brings to the table.
3. Patterson always believes in stopping the run first which makes the pass D the weakness. But I don't think Stanford can exploit it.
4. TCU only averaged 414 yards per game in conference. B12 an offensive conference.
5. If you throw out the two games against USC (dissimilar to TCU anyway), the Stanford defensive statistics are not bad. Make no mistake, this is not as solid a defense as they have fielded in recent years but I think it is better than the stats in aggregate might suggest.
6. From a pace perspective, you would expect this game to have a low number of plays.
1. Similar Strength of Schedule
2. Very significant difference in yards per play offensive production in favor of OSU
3. Significant difference in yards per play defense in favor of VT
4. Common opponents vs Defense:
Pittsburgh - 366 yards at 5.81 yards per play vs VT (VT home)
Pittsburgh - 391 yards at 5.67 yards per play vs OSU (OSU away)
West Virginia - 592 yards at 6.65 yards per play vs VT (Vt semi-neutral Landover Maryland)
West Virginia - 347 yards at 4.82 yards per play vs osu (OSU away)
a.) of extra note is that WVUs offense has roots in what OSU does on offense, just with lesser players at the skill positions. Based on what WVU was able to do, I would expect OSU to be able have success. And as the WVU game was the season opener, I feel the "Bud Foster will find a way to stop oklahoma state with time to prepare" argument a little weak.
5. I think the better QB clearly sits on the side of OSU and the better coach. That is a tough combo to overcome with significant edges elsewhere.
6. I don't see significant motivational angles to counteract the above
Stanford/TCU under
1. TCU giving up just 328 yards per game while playing in a very good offensive conference
2. Strength of the Stanford offense is the running back and the running game. TCU one of four teams that gave up less than 100 yards per game on the ground and one of about seven teams that gave up less than 3 yards per carry. Moreover, TCU has been great at stopping large gain runs which is obviously a big deal given what Love brings to the table.
3. Patterson always believes in stopping the run first which makes the pass D the weakness. But I don't think Stanford can exploit it.
4. TCU only averaged 414 yards per game in conference. B12 an offensive conference.
5. If you throw out the two games against USC (dissimilar to TCU anyway), the Stanford defensive statistics are not bad. Make no mistake, this is not as solid a defense as they have fielded in recent years but I think it is better than the stats in aggregate might suggest.
6. From a pace perspective, you would expect this game to have a low number of plays.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I don't think I need to elaborate too much on my feelings with regards to Washington State, particularly at the current line where you are getting the better team with a plus sign.
But I think you have a situation where the WSU defensive strength of stopping the run, matches up well against the general MSU gameplan of running the ball for success. Michigan State was 109th in yards per pass attempt. So if the better than average WSU rush defense does its job, then I think MSU struggles to score. Washington State generated 8 more sacks on the year than did MSU (not too surprising) and have good speed to rush the passer. I don't see MSU throwing with a ton of success when Washinton State finished the year near the top of the pass defense stats while playing in a decent passing conference. Moreover, Washington State has largely played well vs this style of team, largely holding down USC, Stanford, and Colorado while allowing some large rushing yards to Washington. When WSU has the ball, they will be looking to throw a lot as their rush offense has disappeared as the season progressed and they are unlikely to have success vs the MSU rush defense. However, passing is their strength and pass defense is the MSU weakness. MSU didn't face many quality passing attacks this year and when they did they struggled a bit.
This seems like a cappers game to me. MSU will be popular but Washington State will win the game because, quite frankly, they are the better team and they match up well.
I would also point out there are some missing receivers for WSU but it is mitigated by the system they run, which I call a plug and play system.
This was an easy game to pull the trigger on for me. I am a little concerned about the horrible performances from the Pac12 so far but on paper this had to be played.
But I think you have a situation where the WSU defensive strength of stopping the run, matches up well against the general MSU gameplan of running the ball for success. Michigan State was 109th in yards per pass attempt. So if the better than average WSU rush defense does its job, then I think MSU struggles to score. Washington State generated 8 more sacks on the year than did MSU (not too surprising) and have good speed to rush the passer. I don't see MSU throwing with a ton of success when Washinton State finished the year near the top of the pass defense stats while playing in a decent passing conference. Moreover, Washington State has largely played well vs this style of team, largely holding down USC, Stanford, and Colorado while allowing some large rushing yards to Washington. When WSU has the ball, they will be looking to throw a lot as their rush offense has disappeared as the season progressed and they are unlikely to have success vs the MSU rush defense. However, passing is their strength and pass defense is the MSU weakness. MSU didn't face many quality passing attacks this year and when they did they struggled a bit.
This seems like a cappers game to me. MSU will be popular but Washington State will win the game because, quite frankly, they are the better team and they match up well.
I would also point out there are some missing receivers for WSU but it is mitigated by the system they run, which I call a plug and play system.
This was an easy game to pull the trigger on for me. I am a little concerned about the horrible performances from the Pac12 so far but on paper this had to be played.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
UVA - Navy over (note I am writing this up with relation to my number, it is 4 pts lower now)
1. navy not as slow paced as past years. They snap it a bit quicker between snaps now. Obviously not a fast paced team given the option but they are quicker than some would think and have pretty average snaps per game numbers. UVA is also average-ish in this. So i think we see an average paced game but admit I always worry about the running clock in option based teams games.
2. Can Uva stop the option? Well, the coach for UVA is now 12-3 as a DC and HC against the option in his career per an article I read. That is saying something. They held a better option attack to 4.2 yards per carry earlier this year against GTech. The navy option attack has been kind of hit or miss this year. Some folks will point out the reduced numbers down the stretch but the Army game was played in a blizzard and the ND game was played in wind and rain ... and the reality is that Navy has not been held to single digits in a football game since 2013 and doubt a bowl game is where we see it happen. That said, this navy offense is not as good at running the base plays as some more recent teams (Hi Reynolds) and the opposing coach has good history and his team has seen it once already this year in a pretty similar form.
3. Can Navy stop UVA? unlikely imo as Navy has given up 9 yards per pass attempt this year which is 125th in the nation. Uva can toss it around a little and I expect them to.
4. Motivation - I think that Navy is more likely to be more motivated. Basically a home game for them and a game called the Military bowl and they are coming off the loss to Army in heartbreak fashion ... just seems like a spot they show up to me. UVA bowl eligible but limped in so not sure it is a super exciting way to bowl for them. This is what kept me off of UVA .... I like the situational aspects of the game for Navy.
This game was a tough handicap, and value was hard to find ... and with the total dropping like a rock in the ocean, I am stuck with a bad number. But I think both teams reach the twenties which means I think I am in the running for cashing this over often enough to make it better than the opposite. Going to need big play help but I think that potential is there. I don't really like either coach so it will probably be frustrating at some point too. I struggled with this game, so know this would be pretty low on my list of bets I like the most this bowl season. And hell, we haven't had an overtime game yet this bowl season and this one will close near pick
1. navy not as slow paced as past years. They snap it a bit quicker between snaps now. Obviously not a fast paced team given the option but they are quicker than some would think and have pretty average snaps per game numbers. UVA is also average-ish in this. So i think we see an average paced game but admit I always worry about the running clock in option based teams games.
2. Can Uva stop the option? Well, the coach for UVA is now 12-3 as a DC and HC against the option in his career per an article I read. That is saying something. They held a better option attack to 4.2 yards per carry earlier this year against GTech. The navy option attack has been kind of hit or miss this year. Some folks will point out the reduced numbers down the stretch but the Army game was played in a blizzard and the ND game was played in wind and rain ... and the reality is that Navy has not been held to single digits in a football game since 2013 and doubt a bowl game is where we see it happen. That said, this navy offense is not as good at running the base plays as some more recent teams (Hi Reynolds) and the opposing coach has good history and his team has seen it once already this year in a pretty similar form.
3. Can Navy stop UVA? unlikely imo as Navy has given up 9 yards per pass attempt this year which is 125th in the nation. Uva can toss it around a little and I expect them to.
4. Motivation - I think that Navy is more likely to be more motivated. Basically a home game for them and a game called the Military bowl and they are coming off the loss to Army in heartbreak fashion ... just seems like a spot they show up to me. UVA bowl eligible but limped in so not sure it is a super exciting way to bowl for them. This is what kept me off of UVA .... I like the situational aspects of the game for Navy.
This game was a tough handicap, and value was hard to find ... and with the total dropping like a rock in the ocean, I am stuck with a bad number. But I think both teams reach the twenties which means I think I am in the running for cashing this over often enough to make it better than the opposite. Going to need big play help but I think that potential is there. I don't really like either coach so it will probably be frustrating at some point too. I struggled with this game, so know this would be pretty low on my list of bets I like the most this bowl season. And hell, we haven't had an overtime game yet this bowl season and this one will close near pick
Last edited:
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
MSU pretty significant coaching edge.
Leach has put in some clown show bowl performances and the DC has one foot out the door.
Leach has put in some clown show bowl performances and the DC has one foot out the door.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Clown Leach and clown bowl performances? You mean like that 2013 New Mexico Bowl? Probably one of the worst coaching jobs, ever.
Good luck, vk. Love Gundy and OSU. Not sure if you noted above but obviously doesn't help VT that Phillips is sitting today.
Good luck, vk. Love Gundy and OSU. Not sure if you noted above but obviously doesn't help VT that Phillips is sitting today.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
yep. last year against minny wasn't so hot either.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
That was ugly but it was also in the same bowl. You would think there is some motivation help there. Leach an odd cat though.
I don't agree that MSU has a coaching advantage in general but maybe Leach doesn't care about bowls. Lol at not taking a knee. The kid fumbled on first down but it got overruled. Then he doesn't take a knee on second down AND the QB snaps the ball with a ton of time on the play clock. Almost unbelievable.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
I dont know why but i tend to ignore past bowl success. Same reason why i ignore trends. Ferentz lost 4 in a row...won yesterday. Leach sucked before....what does it mean? An off day? His team didnt care enough? Did he learn from it?
I just focus on current season and current matchup. Too many unknowns into past bowl performance and w/l is not enough for me.
I just focus on current season and current matchup. Too many unknowns into past bowl performance and w/l is not enough for me.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I tend to ignore trends unless I can find a logical reason for them. In the case of bowl results, i think it is ok to take a look at it .... it will help you determine what coaches care about winning them and what coaches either treat it as a reward to the kids, don't care or only care about the extra practices for improving the team rather than for preparing for the opponent. I always focus more on the match up but whether the coach cares or not is a factor.
Which is why, even though I think there is no real coaching edge for MSU (In fact, I have little doubt that Leach is a better X's and O's guy) in the general sense, there is some evidence that Leach doesn't always care about the bowl game (not taking the knee). I think it is fair to think this could be just how he approaches bowls. I hope not.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Overall I agree. But I make a note of clown shows if they happen often enough.
WSU just seems like a very inconsistent squad in general. Same can be said for Iowa.
But I absolutely believe bowl prep is a skill. And some coaches are more skilled than others.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Yea im not saying to completely ignore looking at coaches performance but i just havnt found a silver bullet on that front.
I just tend to believe can convince self on a given angle for/against if you want to believe it.
Tx/mizz great example. VK saw motivation with suspensions, i saw weakened team. Texas won but how much did suspensions factor in? Probably little.
Biggest factor - the best punting game ive ever seen in my life keepimg mizz in their own 5 i think 4-6 times
Anyway, go WSU!
I just tend to believe can convince self on a given angle for/against if you want to believe it.
Tx/mizz great example. VK saw motivation with suspensions, i saw weakened team. Texas won but how much did suspensions factor in? Probably little.
Biggest factor - the best punting game ive ever seen in my life keepimg mizz in their own 5 i think 4-6 times
Anyway, go WSU!
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya with how the Texas defense was playing, and the field position .. had Texas not continually hurt themselves with penalties, sacks and the most horrific playcalling known to man, they would have had 38 pts by halftime. That punter was phenomenal. I just like what I read and watched from the Texas HC leading up to the game ... he sounded EXTREMELY interested. Turns out they had a huge crowd bias in their favor too which I figured but was surprised how loud they were given Texas fans are more in line with what BAR used to call the Michigan blue hairs.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
YUP. That crowd was legit. I wont lie, you had me questiomed my mizz ticket but it was locked n loaded lol
Your read on tcu/stanford under is why i like tcu so much. BOL to us there
Your read on tcu/stanford under is why i like tcu so much. BOL to us there
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
They looked flatter than a pancake. Benkert was just insanely bad. And Mendenhall punting at opponent 31 yard line when down 28 in the third quarter for a net 11 yards, was basically giving his kids permission to quit.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It was forever to go from a personal foul penalty. like 17 or something.
