49ers vs. Cowboys Discussion Thread

Wow, line looks short to me. Not giving Dallas much respect, basically saying pick on a neutral? I don’t see that.
 
McCarthy is an idiot for sure and could cost them. But I just think the most important is QB and I'll take Dak over Jimmy every time. Also think Dallas' D can check SF offense pretty well. Home crowd going nuts. I expected line to be 6. Anyway, I won some live Charger bets tonight I had no business winning so putting that towards this. Worth the risk.
 
Who ever get to the QB on 3rd down will win.

This game goes under. That's the bet imo.
 
ISU74 said:
The preparation is more about Quinn V Shanny than MM V Shanny imo.
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There it is.

I jumped on Dallas -3 largely because I think the QB mismatch is pretty substantial here. But so is the head coaching mismatch. If this line was any more than three I'd pass or maybe look the other way, but what I'm falling back on is that this is really about Dan Quinn vs. Shanahan's offense. If Dallas can keep SF to about 17, my feeling Dallas gets to the number 23/24/27 -17/14/13. There might be an outside shot at 31-20, but I'm not sure I can see Dallas getting to 30+ here without something weird (defensive score, SF turnovers deep in their own end, etc.). This game feels under 48 to me.

The X-factor is Deebo, imo. I feel like he and Kittle are probably the two best guys on the field in this game. But Kittle's like Travis Kelce, you know what you'll get, and he'll get his, you just have to limit it. Deebo though, if you let him get loose, it's a problem. So really, again, for me this is where Dan Quinn has to remind everybody that he may not be a great head coach, but he's one hell of a DC.
 
Joe Public said:
There it is.

I jumped on Dallas -3 largely because I think the QB mismatch is pretty substantial here. But so is the head coaching mismatch. If this line was any more than three I'd pass or maybe look the other way, but what I'm falling back on is that this is really about Dan Quinn vs. Shanahan's offense. If Dallas can keep SF to about 17, my feeling Dallas gets to the number 23/24/27 -17/14/13. There might be an outside shot at 31-20, but I'm not sure I can see Dallas getting to 30+ here without something weird (defensive score, SF turnovers deep in their own end, etc.). This game feels under 48 to me.

The X-factor is Deebo, imo. I feel like he and Kittle are probably the two best guys on the field in this game. But Kittle's like Travis Kelce, you know what you'll get, and he'll get his, you just have to limit it. Deebo though, if you let him get loose, it's a problem. So really, again, for me this is where Dan Quinn has to remind everybody that he may not be a great head coach, but he's one hell of a DC.
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I will be on Deebo rushing props, first lock of my week
 
Joe Public said:
There it is.

I jumped on Dallas -3 largely because I think the QB mismatch is pretty substantial here. But so is the head coaching mismatch. If this line was any more than three I'd pass or maybe look the other way, but what I'm falling back on is that this is really about Dan Quinn vs. Shanahan's offense. If Dallas can keep SF to about 17, my feeling Dallas gets to the number 23/24/27 -17/14/13. There might be an outside shot at 31-20, but I'm not sure I can see Dallas getting to 30+ here without something weird (defensive score, SF turnovers deep in their own end, etc.). This game feels under 48 to me.

The X-factor is Deebo, imo. I feel like he and Kittle are probably the two best guys on the field in this game. But Kittle's like Travis Kelce, you know what you'll get, and he'll get his, you just have to limit it. Deebo though, if you let him get loose, it's a problem. So really, again, for me this is where Dan Quinn has to remind everybody that he may not be a great head coach, but he's one hell of a DC.
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Deebo is definitely the guy that scares me, mainly as a runner. Dallas has struggled containing the edge lately as too often the rushers slant inside and the LBs don't scrape outside quick enough to get a good angle. Hopefully with Jimmy G fairly immobile they can concentrate more on stopping Deebo first and then getting to the QB next. They need to, because once Shanahan finds something that works he's not afraid to go to it over and over and over again. Dallas could be put on its heels quickly and have to play from behind, which is not an unusual place for them, unfortunately.

Offensively I like Dallas to move the ball through the air well. Scoring 24+ shouldn't be a problem.
 
Strictly looking at past lines from this season (not the results, they are both playoff teams and comparing schedules and outcomes from those games doesnt work) The strength the lines makers have assigned to the Niners out weighs what the Cowboys have had to overcome. Dallas has achieved a lot of success based upon those fairly assigned lines (especially easy lines early in the season based upon what took place in their season and the rotten division last year. In my opinion Dallas and Philly have benefitted from their improvements and the schedules from being in such a crap division in 2020.

Dallas is 1-4 against playoff teams (not including games against #7 rated division Eagles.

Looking at the other side 49ers, finished 3rd in that elite division, so thats a plus. I think (opinion) they faced more difficult lines. I mean here they are against Dallas at +3 and a few weeks back they were at the Titans and that line was -3.

I read somewhere that the 49ers are also getting healthier, Matching up offensive and defensive lines, this part is not my strength.

Offensively I think Dak can be a powerhouse, but (as I mentioned) also has a 1-4 record against strong opponents this season.

I like the 49ers because Dallas has had more ATS success then most Cowboy teams from the past.


I like the assigned line of 49ers based upon season numbers and divisions and I can get a battle tested team against a team that has struggled against playoff teams

Lastly I get +3 points.

Will this payout? I hope so. :shake:

Best wishes to all
 
C-MAN said:
Wow, line looks short to me. Not giving Dallas much respect, basically saying pick on a neutral? I don’t see that.
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I think niners are better personally. What has Dallas done that impressive outside of whipping the crap nfc least teams? I wanted to like them because of their defense but imo niners about the worst possible matchup for that group, I don’t think stopping a physical run game their best quality.
 
I see I’m in the total minority on this, I freaking love niners to win, lol, really the only WC matchup I feel super confident in.
 
twinkie13 said:
Definitely the toughest to figure for me, but lean your way
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I really like Dallas defense but don’t really think they best suited to deal w niners physical rush attack. Think that kinda limits the efectness of the pass rush. Still don’t trust the Dallas offense when not facing the East crap teams,
 
2daBank said:
I see I’m in the total minority on this, I freaking love niners to win, lol, really the only WC matchup I feel super confident in.
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Nah, you have people on your side. I talked to someone today who LOVES the Niners this weekend. Loves them.

Part of me feels like maybe I'm mad they burned me early on in the year. I really liked the Niners to have a shot at this division. But then injuries and general suckitude kicked in for like the entire middle of the season. They are getting hot at the right time now, though.

And really, as a Birds fan, I hate the Cowboys. But I feel like they're top three in the conference. Which feels crazy to say since AZ beat them soundly and I still think Dallas is better than them.

The schedule thing is a good point, though you can't fault Dallas for who they played. But it is wise to remember that both Philly and Dallas spend the last month of the season playing division games. And Philly might be decent, but the Giants and WFT suck. A lot. Meanwhile, SF has been playing good teams, and they've been in must-win mode now for damn near two months.

If this were to move back toward +4 they'd be a great teaser candidate along with Arizona.
 
Joe Public said:
Nah, you have people on your side. I talked to someone today who LOVES the Niners this weekend. Loves them.

Part of me feels like maybe I'm mad they burned me early on in the year. I really liked the Niners to have a shot at this division. But then injuries and general suckitude kicked in for like the entire middle of the season. They are getting hot at the right time now, though.

And really, as a Birds fan, I hate the Cowboys. But I feel like they're top three in the conference. Which feels crazy to say since AZ beat them soundly and I still think Dallas is better than them.

The schedule thing is a good point, though you can't fault Dallas for who they played. But it is wise to remember that both Philly and Dallas spend the last month of the season playing division games. And Philly might be decent, but the Giants and WFT suck. A lot. Meanwhile, SF has been playing good teams, and they've been in must-win mode now for damn near two months.

If this were to move back toward +4 they'd be a great teaser candidate along with Arizona.
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I can’t fault them for who they played but I can certainly judge the fact the only times I recall them looking great was against scrubs of the East! Maybe that just my perception tho, I’ll have to look closer, I do know they were 6-0 vs East and a pedestrian 6-5 vs everyone else!! I agree the eagles solid but let’s remember when they played them and circumstances last week,, 1st game was before Philly figured out they were a power run team, and of course last week was meaningless as eagles rested everyone. The washigton defense which was a shell of itself this year was even worse when Dallas saw them due to missing a bunch of ppl, giants were never good, just feel like ppl too high on Dallas for mopping the floor with the worst division. I just don’t see many impressive wins vs playoff teams.

I understand your trepidation w niners, I was picking them as my super bowl team early on and they def went thru a stretch where I felt really dumb for that! I’m sure I made more than one post questioning all the respect shanny gets! Lol. That said they have started to kinda look more like the team I think they can be. Just think that run game is a tough matchup for boys, they be much better off playing against a more finesse team than the team I think is prob the most physical in the nfc.
 
i just noticed this the only WC game that isnt a rematch, crazy. obviously we got the 2 games with div rivals playing a 3rd time but all the others besides this one we have seen once already as well.
 
survive&advance said:
Only matchup this weekend that I’d say I’m really excited for honestly
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Not a good sign when it seemed like quality football really faded down the stretch this season. I'm not excited for this one as much as I am interested, simply don't see much in the way of story lines in the other games.
 
Play2win said:
SF has chance to win conference and SB even without a qb imo
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i think packers in trouble after they beat dallas,,niners physicality a bad matchup for boys and pack. i love their chances of making it to the nfc champ at least, then who knows.
 
The hate for Jimmy G is not deserved. Is he a tier 1 QB? Probably not. He is a QB who was one overthrow away from beating KC in the SB two years ago.

We are always looking for value in the margins when betting. I think JG is overlooked in this match up. He is the X factor.

On another note, Dallas gives up a lot of YAC. This weekend they are playing the YAC brothers.

All the pressure is on Dallas Sunday.
 
ISU74 said:
The hate for Jimmy G is not deserved. Is he a tier 1 QB? Probably not. He is a QB who was one overthrow away from beating KC in the SB two years ago.

We are always looking for value in the margins when betting. I think JG is overlooked in this match up. He is the X factor.

On another note, Dallas gives up a lot of YAC. This weekend they are playing the YAC brothers.

All the pressure is on Dallas Sunday.
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I agree with you bout Jimmy, I have no problem backing him, he the anti cousins, he shows up big in pressure spots at ends of games. I don’t expect he needs to do a whole lot in this one, just don’t turn it over and pick up a few key 3rd downs to keep the run game on script should be enough. He doesn’t worry me at all,,they have proven they can win with him, shanny record is great w Jimmy as his qb!! They didn’t draft Lance cause they don’t trust Jimmy g, they drafted him cause Jimmy can’t stay healthy.
 
Respect all the SF love and reasoning behind it and it is definitely going to make me lower my max Dallas bet (5u). My book now has it at Dallas -3 -120, SF +3 EV so I'm hoping I can get +3.5 to buy off at least half of it. That being said, SF wins this year came against LAR (twice), Cincy, Phily, Jags, Houston, Min, Atlanta & Chicago. They lost to Seattle twice (giving up ~30 in both) and AZ twice. They barely beat Phily in week 2 17-11. Not sure on their health status for all this, but to me that isn't all that impressive - maybe a little better than Dallas beating up the NFC East but not by much. I watched the 1H of the Rams game last weekend and the Rams went right up and down the field on them in most of the 1H. I think Dak and the Dallas O are going to have a really good game if their coaches (who I hate) don't F it up. But my friend who is a Dallas fanatic agreed it probably comes down to if Dallas can defend the SF run decently - put them in some long 3D. But definitely more comfortable with a 2u bet now.
 
lvmike32 said:
Respect all the SF love and reasoning behind it and it is definitely going to make me lower my max Dallas bet (5u). My book now has it at Dallas -3 -120, SF +3 EV so I'm hoping I can get +3.5 to buy off at least half of it. That being said, SF wins this year came against LAR (twice), Cincy, Phily, Jags, Houston, Min, Atlanta & Chicago. They lost to Seattle twice (giving up ~30 in both) and AZ twice. They barely beat Phily in week 2 17-11. Not sure on their health status for all this, but to me that isn't all that impressive - maybe a little better than Dallas beating up the NFC East but not by much. I watched the 1H of the Rams game last weekend and the Rams went right up and down the field on them in most of the 1H. I think Dak and the Dallas O are going to have a really good game if their coaches (who I hate) don't F it up. But my friend who is a Dallas fanatic agreed it probably comes down to if Dallas can defend the SF run decently - put them in some long 3D. But definitely more comfortable with a 2u bet now.
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For me it's a coin flip type which is why I'm on SF. I'm certainly not a fan of their game like many but they do have the run game and the TE that can move chains. It's funny that Kittle is hardly even mentioned in discussion about this game, he might well be the difference.
 
KJ said:
For me it's a coin flip type which is why I'm on SF. I'm certainly not a fan of their game like many but they do have the run game and the TE that can move chains. It's funny that Kittle is hardly even mentioned in discussion about this game, he might well be the difference.
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He hasn't been targeted that much since his return. I've lost a few rec Prop bets on him.
 
booksbestfriend said:
He hasn't been targeted that much since his return. I've lost a few rec Prop bets on him.
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Hadn't even looked at targets lately but I also take the regular season with a grain of salt compared to the post season. Certainly not a Shanny fan but he'll likely run circles around the coach on the other sideline with his game plan.
 
lvmike32 said:
Respect all the SF love and reasoning behind it and it is definitely going to make me lower my max Dallas bet (5u). My book now has it at Dallas -3 -120, SF +3 EV so I'm hoping I can get +3.5 to buy off at least half of it. That being said, SF wins this year came against LAR (twice), Cincy, Phily, Jags, Houston, Min, Atlanta & Chicago. They lost to Seattle twice (giving up ~30 in both) and AZ twice. They barely beat Phily in week 2 17-11. Not sure on their health status for all this, but to me that isn't all that impressive - maybe a little better than Dallas beating up the NFC East but not by much. I watched the 1H of the Rams game last weekend and the Rams went right up and down the field on them in most of the 1H. I think Dak and the Dallas O are going to have a really good game if their coaches (who I hate) don't F it up. But my friend who is a Dallas fanatic agreed it probably comes down to if Dallas can defend the SF run decently - put them in some long 3D. But definitely more comfortable with a 2u bet now.
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Hell no, make that shit 10u
 
Joe Public said:
There it is.

I jumped on Dallas -3 largely because I think the QB mismatch is pretty substantial here. But so is the head coaching mismatch. If this line was any more than three I'd pass or maybe look the other way, but what I'm falling back on is that this is really about Dan Quinn vs. Shanahan's offense. If Dallas can keep SF to about 17, my feeling Dallas gets to the number 23/24/27 -17/14/13. There might be an outside shot at 31-20, but I'm not sure I can see Dallas getting to 30+ here without something weird (defensive score, SF turnovers deep in their own end, etc.). This game feels under 48 to me.

The X-factor is Deebo, imo. I feel like he and Kittle are probably the two best guys on the field in this game. But Kittle's like Travis Kelce, you know what you'll get, and he'll get his, you just have to limit it. Deebo though, if you let him get loose, it's a problem. So really, again, for me this is where Dan Quinn has to remind everybody that he may not be a great head coach, but he's one hell of a DC.
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I'd be on SF over 17 for a shitload.
 
As much I like the niners I gotta admit I love that parsons kid. Him and the Dallas d the reason I been thinking they had a shot at a deep run, just so happens I think they drew a really bad matchup. Loved his last presser where In response to niners physicality he talks about where he from bullies get bullied and he don’t back down from a fight! All year he been great in pressers and has then went out and backed up the cockiness, love that shit!!

Jerry and co really lucked out that the corners they wanted got drafted ahead of them and nobody picked parsons after they traded back, ya know he wasn’t their 1st choice or they never would have traded back before picking him! Lol
 
9ers secondary hasn't been this healthy and good all season. Thomas is finally not a liability and Mosely IMO is a top 20 CB in the league. There is no better front 6 nickel package in the league.

Dak will need to use his legs and I haven't seen him running much since the injury. 1/3 of the stadium will be red.

They ran it all over LAR 2h last week without the best player in all of football - Trent Williams - who will be back this weekend.
 
2daBank said:
I’m happy it split. When lines 1st came out I was really scared niners were gonna be incredibly popular. Then I looked around forum world and heard enough the tv bobble heads to think it prob was gonna be split pretty evenly.
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It's not like it's a sucker line. Cowboys are America's team and Vegas throws out a neutral PK?
 
ISU74 said:
The hate for Jimmy G is not deserved. Is he a tier 1 QB? Probably not. He is a QB who was one overthrow away from beating KC in the SB two years ago.

We are always looking for value in the margins when betting. I think JG is overlooked in this match up. He is the X factor.

On another note, Dallas gives up a lot of YAC. This weekend they are playing the YAC brothers.

All the pressure is on Dallas Sunday.
Click to expand...

The hate for GQ is unreal. When he starts, they win, and his QBR is rather good. He's been a top 3 QB by the #s second half of the season. His throws over the middle have been off due to the thumb injury.
 
skanless13 said:
Yeah. I like 9ers but they seem like a very public dog this week and those don’t tend to end up well
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Yeah but the line is strong IMO. Typically it's bad when you take a dog with an also questionable line. If this was Dal -6, yeah, I'd be scared.
 
Agree with thought of an under being the best play here. 51 is alot of points. Boys defense right now I think is as good as their offense, o took a slump midseason and I still am not sure they've regained the run game. On D though they've got some dudes back healthy late in year, lawrence, gallimore, gregory. 49ers never felt like a explosive offense just a ground and pound. I think dallas has the talent to matchup upfront. Spread - seems like a close game but initial lean was dallas has more weapons in the pass game vs a weak secondary in a game that should be evenly contested everywhere else. Overall defense also might favor dallas. D has playmaking gamechanging ability. The cardinals and rams games probably made each team look worse/better than they really are. cardinals were in a must win and rams always make 49ers look great.
 
EL CAPO said:
Agree with thought of an under being the best play here. 51 is alot of points. Boys defense right now I think is as good as their offense, o took a slump midseason and I still am not sure they've regained the run game. On D though they've got some dudes back healthy late in year, lawrence, gallimore, gregory. 49ers never felt like a explosive offense just a ground and pound. I think dallas has the talent to matchup upfront. Spread - seems like a close game but initial lean was dallas has more weapons in the pass game vs a weak secondary in a game that should be evenly contested everywhere else. Overall defense also might favor dallas. D has playmaking gamechanging ability. The cardinals and rams games probably made each team look worse/better than they really are. cardinals were in a must win and rams always make 49ers look great.
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I think Dallas d is better than the o but I’m not sure their strong suite is stopping a physical run game. Niners have the best yards per play in the league so think you selling their explosiveness a bit short, Debo, aiyuk, and kittle are all monsters at creating big plays when they get the ball in space!!
 
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