2024 Kentucky Derby Discussion

Timh

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim

2024 Kentucky Derby post positions​

1. Dornoch, Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, 20-1

2. Sierra Leone, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 3-1

3. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 20-1

4. Catching Freedom, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 8-1

5. Catalytic, Saffie Joseph Jr., Jose Ortiz, 30-1

6. Just Steel, D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen, 20-1

7. Honor Marie, Whit Beckman, Ben Curtis, 20-1

8. Just a Touch, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 10-1

9. Encino, Brad Cox, Axel Concepcion, 20-1

10. T O Password, Daisuke Takayanagi, Kazushi Kimura, 30-1

11. Forever Young, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 10-1

12. Track Phantom, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 20-1

13. West Saratoga, Larry Demeritte, Jesus Castanon, 50-1

14. Endlessly, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 30-1

15. Domestic Product, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 30-1

16. Grand Mo the First, Victor Barboza Jr., Emisael Jaramillo, 50-1

17. Fierceness, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 5-2

18. Stronghold, Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, 20-1

19. Resilience, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 20-1

20. Society Man, Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori, 50-1
 
Got a small bit on him at 7-1 this last weekend, pretty much figured he'd close around 9/2. Fierceness will likely just hover around 3/1. Didn't realize SL was already at 3/1, that's tough in a 20 horse race to back but he's the best
 
Tough race as always. I’m hoping there’s enough speed that Fierceness has to work up front and that opens it up for closers like Sierra and Catching Freedom among others. I love a good pace meltdown.
 
aplous said:
Tough race as always. I’m hoping there’s enough speed that Fierceness has to work up front and that opens it up for closers like Sierra and Catching Freedom among others. I love a good pace meltdown.
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I really think it's Chad's year and believe he has the best horse in the field bar none.

Time for him to get the trophy.
 
I did check in with GameHunter...

Provided he has time and does a write - up, he'll pop in.

Always love reading his analysis the first Saturday of May each year...
 
My thoughts:

On Pace - Pace should be at a minimum honest to fast. Speed horses are spread across the starting gate. Fierceness from the 16 hole will need to be hustled down that first 1/4 mile to find good position at/near the front. Dornoch also likes to lead and breaks from the post, so he'll be gunned early as well. Track Phantom and West Saratoga figure to be battling for the front as well from the center gates. Behind them Resilience and Epic Ride could be hung out as they try to find position into the turn.

1 Dornoch has shown staying power in his two turn races but was flat last time in the Blue Grass. Will need to be gunned early to get a good position up front were he likes it. If he gets there he's got a fighting chance to run on and catch a piece, but its a daunting task. I'm inclined to be against.

2 Sierra Leone is an outstanding late runner with the Blue Grass on his resume. He'll need a sharp pace (good chance) and to navigate past 16 or so horses in this one (tough task). He'll get a rail trip so he should be doing his best running the last half mile. Low odds for a horse that might pull this off maybe one time in five.

3 Mystik Dan has a sprint win at Churchill and a stunning offtrack win at Oaklawn. He bounced out of that won to finish 3rd in the Ark Derby, could be due to rebound to his Southwest effort, which would make him a contender here. His running style should put him mid pack, he'll be attacking the turn hard. If he can find the front heading for home he has the staying power to hang on. A sneaky win contender.

4 Catching Freedom is another strong closer, rushing from last to first in the last half mile to win the LA Derby. Sierra Leone beat him down the stretch in the Risen Star. Wouldn't expect anything different here. Could finish ITM.

5 Catalytic is lightly raced and finished a distant 2nd to Fierceness in Florida. That field is looking suspect. For Catalytic it was his first two turn effort. He was within a length and a half at 3/4 mile and end up 13 lengths back.....but still in 2nd place?! That's a toss.

6 Just Steel put in a big effort to finish 2nd to Muth in Ark Derby, but essentially ran a pretty flat race. Has no wins in 2024 and turns to bounce up and down in the figures. Next effort likely to be a down one. Pass.

7 Honor Marie is the third bigtime closer in this race. He just missed running down Catching Freedom in the Ark Derby. Like the other closers he'll need to work out a trip around 16-17 horses, and the connections don't give us a lot of confidence. Has a chance to finish ITM, but it will need to be a hot pace.

8 Just a Touch is making just his fourth start; this horse was beaten by Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass but has been improving steadily. Figures to get a nice stalking trip. Dangers are whether he's too close to a hot pace and whether he can get the distance. Worth using across the board.

9 Encino scratched

10 & 11 TO Password and Forever Young are two Japanese entrants. Japanese horses having been coming into the US and winning recently, especially at the Breeders Cup. T O Password only has two races, both in Japan, and therefore can be dismissed. But Forever Young is 5 for 5 with fields as large as 14, along with a UAE Derby Win and a Grade 3 win in Korea. With the favorites in this one facing serious obstacles, I think it might be time for a Japanese horse to climb the mountain. Forever Young is my top choice.

12 Travel Phantom will be battling for the early lead upfront Fierceness and Dornoch. He set a quick pace in the LA Derby and was run down by two closers in today's field. The third, Sierra Leone, ran him down in the slop in the Risen Star at a slower pace. I think he tries to keep up with the other frontrunners but then fades to the back half of the field. Toss.

13 West Saratoga figures to be the longest shot in the field and for good reason. While 104 is the Brisnet Par for the race, West Saratoga has run ten times and not once broken 90. Toss.

14 Endless is another nice closer who won the JR Steaks in stylish fashion, circling wide and running away to a four-length win. Has two all-weather and four turf races on his card. Would normally toss with no dirt record but good turf and all-weather horses have a habit of running well on the Churchill dirt. Has a chance to land ITM, although not a win candidate.

15 Domestic Product won the Tampa Derby with a poor speed figure number after finishing ahead of Fierceness in the Holy Bull. So is he a good horse being hidden by bad figures? I don't see it. Tampa form rarely travels. Toss.

16 Grand Mo the First finished 3rd in both the Tampa and Florida Derbys, arguably the two worst preps. Another horse that has yet to even see a 90 Bris speed number. Toss.

17 Fierceness comes in as the morning line favorite and a two-time grade 1 winner, having won the Juvenile last year in an upset at 16-1 odds. Probably needed the Holy Bull to tighten the screws, then he smashed a mediocre field to win the FL Derby by 13 lengths. Will be sent from his outside post to challenge for the lead, which could make him vulnerable to a wide trip along with a fast pace. He has the class to be leading as they turn for home, the question is how much did the first 9 furlongs take out of him. Definite win candidate needs to be used across the board.

18 Stronghold scored a pair of prep wins in Sunland and Santa Anita, running back to his 2023 top. Has a definite chance to move forward from here, which would put him on the cusp of win contention. Figures to be anywhere from 6th to 9th on the back stretch depending on the pace. Has made strong moves on the far turn, could see it here as well. Just outside of the main win contenders but definitely in the mix for place/show/fourth.

19 Resilience put in a huge effort in the Wood for Bill Mott, winning confidently over Society Man and an otherwise so-so field. If he runs back to that number he's a win contender, but he's also a bounce candidate off the numbers leap. Has two good maiden efforts at Churchill from last year, so the track shouldn't be a problem. Junior will look to hustle him out early and tuck him in behind the front runners, not an easy task. A fringe (maybe less) win candidate and ITM contender.

20 Society Man finished 2nd in the Wood at 106-1, which again gives you an idea about the non-strength of the field. His speed number jumped 17 points, which makes him a strong bounce candidate. His late running style also means he'll have to navigate the field, although he has one of the best ever in Frankie Dettori to do that. I'm inclined to bet that he'll run about 15th into the backstretch and improve maybe to 9th at best. Toss.

21 Epic Ride draws in with the scratch of Encino. Was 3rd in the Blue Grass at 51-1, well beaten by Sierra Leone and Just a Touch. Likes to run just behind the leaders, which with the outside post and a fast pace could drain him quickly. I don't see him in the mix.

Recap:
Win contenders 2, 3, 11 (top choice), 17, 19
Other ITM choices 4, 7, 8, 14, 18

Tri plays:
11 over 2,17 over 3,4,7,8,14,18,19
11 over 3,4,7,8,14,18,19 over 2,17
 
Japanese horse ran really well in the last race before fading late. You might be on to something Gandy.
 
Inspekdah said:
Any bets today?
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Watching the next race with no bets but finally waking up and going to the OTB after. I don't know the Oaks fillies at all though.

Fading the favorite is a really bad idea from what I'm gathering to this point
 
Track is fairly wet but not muddy, not sure how that's been changing things
 
R9: WP 1 and EXB 1/7

Lifers at this OTB are on 8, no thanks there. They're betting on a muddy track that simply hasn't played that way today
 
I'll take the 11 Ways and Means in the Oaks. I don't follow like I used to. Watched zero preps.
 
Okay I will try to do a brief writeup. I handicap based on pedigree, clocker reports and passing the eye test.
Pedigree- Buckpasser in the X position.
Fierceness
SierraLeone
Society Man
Track Phantom
Dornoch
These five fit the criteria which has had significant impact on Derby results. Combine that with fast final fraction sub 37.8 and 12.8

Fierceness and Track Phantom make the cut. Sierra Leone can be included as he is right at the cutoff.

Clocker Reports

Dornoch- One decent work with one so-so as he had to be nudged along. Combine that with his slow final fractions. Pass.

Sierra Leone-B+ Long strider never asked. Showing new dimension than a one run closer. Put him on the shortlist.

Mystik Dan- B Solid works. Meets fast final fractions. Possible board hitter but prefer others.

Catching Freedom- B Never asked forged ahead on gallop out. Fast final fractions. I think he is shortlist material.

Catalytic -B/C Solid breeze drew off on workmate in 2ndwork. First work lathered up. Slow final fractions gave up ton of ground to Fierceness. Pass.

Just Steel- C Had to be nudged along. Meets final fractions but hes got several starts under his belt seems and when he meets tuff foes he goes backwards, appears to be regressing. Pass.

Honor Marie- B+ One of the workout stars of the week. Meets final fractions. Cant really knock his races. Connections not derby mainstays. Undecided what to do with him. If he catches too much $$$ may decide against but at ml odds worth using.

Just A Touch-N/A No observed works. Curious Derby trail for a Cox horse going up to NY. Caught up in fast first half last out and lived to tell about it. Worth Consideration underneath.

TO Password- B Worked better than Forever Young. Lightly raced Japanese horse meet the bumping and jostling of Ky Derby with kickback in the face to boot. Hard pass.

Forever Young C Not taking to the track. Looks slow not changing gears. Another Jap horse. Toss.

Track Phantom B+ Working well under snug hold. Like the pedigree Don't know what happened last time but also meets fast final fractions. Use as a board hitter.

West Saratoga C/B Not impressing in mornings, sluggish. Races leave something to be desired will need to find alot more.Pass.

Endlessly C Turf bred horse not taking to Churchill dirt. I see no reason to use owners likely wanted in just cuz. Pass.

Domestic Product- B+ Was right alongside side SierraLeone under a hard hold. Has fast final fractions tho hes been closing off of slow fractions but nonetheless hes earned it. Irad up for ChadBrown. Live longshot for my $$.

Grand Mo the First N/A No local works. Looks outclassed best runs came on turf/allweather. Pass.

Fierceness A- Has been working lights out. Meets pedigree and final fractions criteria. Good horses have the versatility to get themselves out of trouble. Pletcher curse and his Jekyll n Hyde results temper enthusiasm a little but think he is the horse to beat. Must use.

Stronghold- B Under the radar doing well moving fluently under no urging, gallop out average. Plucky horse that is determined. Question the quality of West Coast runners and major ?? at the distance. I lean against but if hes big odds playable as underneath.

Resilience B- Just maintenance works looks fine. added blinks in last looked like new horse. Regression coming? Comes from respected Mott Stable. Hard to decide what to do with.

Society Man N/A No observed works. Went off at a billion to one and held 2nd. Waters get much deeper outside post. Pass.

Epic Ride No observed works. Looks outclassed in here.

So lets go with 2, 15,17/ 2,4,7, 12,15,17/2,3,4,7,12,15,17,18,19 +$105 for $1 ticket.
 
Interesting take on the Japanese horses in here, they are basically this year's buzzwords

Think a lot of people are expecting a completely sloppy track and if so Mystik Dan is definitely in play but even with all the rain yesterday the track was playing very fair. Whole thing with Fierceness is the gate, it's obviously a big story as to how he breaks but for me I hope he's part of a pace that melts down. Sierra Leone actually has a solid close in slop if necessary and as he's the horse I'm backing, I need the race to break down a bit.

Doubt I do much more than a win bet on him and Gandy has talked me in to a 2/11 exacta box. Making even a cent on the Derby is pretty much a nice consolation to what is really just an event that most everyone overthinks.

Thanks for those breakdowns as well Hoss, good stuff!
 
If I get beat by Forever Young, so be it. But I won't be betting any UAE Derby winner ever in the Derby. Just too quick of a turnaround. Not too mention a Saudi Arabia to Dubai to Churchill path to victory? No thanks.

If it doesn't rain anymore, the track should be fast by post time.
 
Also might put a buck on the other Chad Brown horse because at 30-1 or whatever he is, you simply cannot count out the CB/Irad connection any time.
 
Fierceness either wins, or he's nowhere imo.

I'll wheel him on top, with Catching Freedom, Just a Touch, Honor Marie and Sierra Leonne in 2nd with a bunch more in 3rd and 4th in the super.

And then I'll play a 6 horse trifecta box with those 4 (minus Fierceness) and 2 others TBD later
 
KJ said:
Japanese horse ran really well in the last race before fading late. You might be on to something Gandy.
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3-4 wide on both turns and still made the pass in the stretch. Plus, he changed leads which didn't happen in his previous race, so he seems to be learning. And I'm just not wowed by the US horses this year. On times and figures Fierceness should be the one to beat, but the prep had no one to challenge him and he's followed his great efforts with clunkers. Sierra Leone also logical but I'm not sure the pace will be there to let the closers get all the way home. Like Mystic Dan but can McPeek really win both Oaks and Derby?
 
When you look at the replays Thorpedo Anna was geared down and confidently handled by Hernandez at Oaklawn and came back to win the Oaks. Now watch Jonny V on Fierceness. Never moved his hands and geared him down and still won by a bunch and cruising home in good time. I will say Sierra Leone did look at ease winning last out and so did Catching Freedom but Fierceness looked most impressive.
 
Chad Brown tidal wave in the Distaff Turf Mile. His three just mowed them down in the stretch. That was impressive.
 
Gandolf said:
Chad Brown tidal wave in the Distaff Turf Mile. His three just mowed them down in the stretch. That was impressive.
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Wish that race had been closing leg of opening pk5. I had 10$ of the 4,8,10 and none fired. I had a couple hedge bets on 12,14 to make a lil but missed out on a good ticket.
 
Only way to get the tri in the American Turf would've been to blindly box 1-2-3 in every race and then have to switch to 2-3-4 in this one since the 1 was scratched......
 
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Gandolf said:
Only way to get the tri in the American Turf would've been to blindly box 1-2-3 in every race and then have to switch to 2-3-4 in this one since the 1 was scratched......
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Did I see that the $.10 super paid almost $70k? Unreal stuff.
 
The 6 is kinda tepid on the board. May need one after layoff. Maybe the 11 is better option for Pk3s.
 
KJ said:
Seeing it the same, if Chad/Irad go down it will be a bit shocking but I think Appleby usually does pretty well when he comes to America doesn't he?
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Yes and Naval Power has been the talk of the town in Europe got the acclimating mile in him last time.
 
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Pretty cool to see Frankie riding in the US this year, only accustomed to see him dominating during Brit week in the Summer
 
Da Hoss said:
Couple weeks ago he won 5 in a row at SantaAnita brought in prices too.
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Was half watching that day and you could just tell after he got a couple that it was just going to be one of those days. Pretty sure he's getting a lot of saddles from Baffert isn't he?
 
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