Road to the Derby

Play2win said:
Lieutenant Colonel in the Wood is sneaky and I like..not trusting these horses coming in from Fla with dressed up form that seldom repeats its self, especially in NY this time of year
Click to expand...
Frosted and Daredevil could win, both short prices with distance questions
 
Pletcher will have multiple Derby runners, give me a prop ....none of his horses hit board in Derby
 
Well that was about the chalkiest Derby prep season in memory.

1. International Star (Maker/Mena)
2. Dortmund (Baffert/M. Garcia)
3. Carpe Diem (Pletcher/Velazquez)
4. American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza)
5. Frosted (McLaighlin/Rosario)
6. Mubtaahij (de Kock/Soumillon)
7. Materiality (Pletcher/Castellano-?)
8. El Kabeir (Terranova/Lopez)
9. Upstart (Violette/J. Ortiz)
10. Far Right (Moquett/Smith)

11. Itsaknockout (Pletcher/Saez)
12. Firing Line (S. Callaghan/Stevens)
13. Danzig Moon (Casse/Leparoux)
14. War Story (Amoss/Talamo)
15. Tencendur (Weaver/TBA)
16. One Lucky Dane (Baffert/Bejarano)
17. Stanford (Pletcher/Geroux)
18. Mr. Z (Lukas/Vasquez)
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Cassidy/S. Gonzalez) **
20. Bolo (Gaines/Smith) **
----------------------------------
21. Madefromlucky (Pletcher)
22. Keen Ice (Romans)
23. Frammento (Zito)
24. Bold Conquest (Asmussen)
25. The Truth or Else (McPeek)
26. Metaboss (Bonde)
27. Firespike

**Connections appear to be leaning against running
 
Coming home 25&2 and 12&2 closing fractions after a 1:10&2 for six furlongs is pretty solid for American Pharaoh. Also liked the way he didn't pull Espinosa after Bridget's Big Luvy and was able to settle into a nice stalking position.
 
Anticipated packs based on running lines of their prep races.

Lead or very close
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
American Pharoah
Materiality
Firing Line

Note - This is what's going to make this race fascinating. The best horses on paper all want to be at the front and all but Carpe Diem won their last preps with faster than average pace setups:
Dortmund +12 at 2nd call - won SA Derby
Materiality +10 - won Florida Derby
Firing Line +3 - won Sunland Derby
American Pharoah +3 - won Arkansas Derby
Carpe Diem -2 - won Blue Grass

Stalking a couple of lengths back
Frosted
Mubtaahij
Upstart
One Lucky Dane
Stanford
Mr. Z
Ocho Ocho Ocho

Note - Frosted and Upstart have the potential to stalk and pounce. Mubtaahij is a wildcard, but history says he'll be up against it on Derby Day. One Lucky Dane ran a good even race stalking Dortmund but was a clear cut below and never threatened down the lane. The others have not shown an ability to keep up with a strong pace and will have their work cut out for them.

Mid-pack
El Kabeir
Itsaknockout
Danzig Moon
War Story
Tencendur
Bolo
Madefromlucky

Note - Mixed bag of potential here. Tencendur put in a great showing in the Wood, and El Kabeir is no slouch. Bolo may not run, has been much better on grass. Rest have been fairly non-descript hangers.


Back of the pack
International Star
Far Right
Keen Ice

With the anticipated pace I'm fairly certain at least one of these three bops into the money. International Star has been under the radar due to his slower times but this race looks like it'll be right in his wheelhouse. Far Right has 2nd/3rd place potential, Keen Ice 3rd/4th place potential.
 
I think International Sar and Keen Ice are must use in exotics. Intl Star has proven ability to manoeuvre in traffic and can close, really hasn't done anything wrong. Keen Ice might clunk up for a piece.

Feel its a battle of the Baffert horses. It'll be interesting because so many of the preps had short fields how some of the contenders deal with a bulky field. Dortmund just has that presence about him, beautiful, strong, big horse that just seems the farther they go the more he wants to go and he has that refuse to lose attitude. Pharaoh has looked great since his return, looked nice and relaxed in Ark. Derby and finished all on his own, minor concern if they rushed him back to make Derby we will find out about his bottom when he gets extended in Derby.

Firing Line has done nothing wrong, raced a couple big ones against Dortmund then earned Derby invite crushing a weak Sunland field. He cant help who is competition is as he with ease as he should have.

Carpe Diem has been prepped well and hasn't been asked for more than what has been necessary so far, I don't believe his Beyer number from Keeneland ( new surface and it poured day before) , anyways he is trending up and can make that step love the breeding.

Toss Outs

Mr.Z has had to race his guts out to make enough points to make Derby. Will be heard from early and fade hard. If his Ark derby performance is any indication he is gassed.

El Kabeir I think he has been a fraud all along. Facing inferior in NY, any real material avoided those races because of the awful weather. When a few better horses showed up for Wood, he couldn't keep up with them when asked on the turn plus I don't think his jock can handle tactical race like KD.

Materiality- the Apollo curse will haunt him, just don't think he has the foundation w only 3 career starts to get the distance.
 
Pondering a couple of scenarios

1a) A sub 1:10 6 furlong pace that cooks both AP and Dortmund and the other front runners and opens the door for Frosted, Tencendur to run by early in the stretch and International Star to maybe nab them all late.

1b) A reasonable pace that sets up for a ding-dong stretch battle between AP, Dortmund, maybe Firing Line and maybe Frosted, with International Star clunking into 3rd or 4th.
 
Good to see Upstart rebounding nicely from the fever he had been battling

Mike Welsch ‏@DRFWelsch <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> 2h2 hours ago</small>
Upstart like he never missed a beat 4 furs. 23.84 47.50 finished strong all on his own, out huge in 59.47 at Palm Meadows.
 
One Lucky Dane out due to injury. Madefromlucky moves into the field of 20. So Baffert's third horse comes out, Pletcher's fifth horse comes in. Shouldn't affect the race much as both are stalker types that are a cut below the better horses.

Keen Ice and Frammento, two closers, on deck.
 
Over the weekend, Madefromlucky was officially pulled out and Keen Ice made the field. Big news in the bottom of the superfectas.

IT'S DERBY WEEK! Time to get serious about this.
 
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