Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3: 4,8,12,13,14/3,8,9,11/6,8,9,18,19
Road to the Derby
- Thread starter Play2win
- Start date
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
BOL Lloyd
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Mr. Moderator
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Think (hope) #11 will pressure Condo Commando more than the NBC simulation
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Just hope she isn't able to sit on slow fractions up front, need someone to pressure her at least a little
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Ky Derby:
I really don't like #18 American Pharaoh, I never bet favorites in horse races and you really have to get more value than 2-1 in a field this big, I am never a fan of "hype" horses, Pharaoh had a light 3 yo campaign so far, towered over those fields at Oaklawn, and there are so many other early speed types, that won't help Pharaoh either.
#2 Carpe Diem, will be close to early pace and poor inside draw for that, plenty of other speeds on outside of him, Pletcher is the best trainer in the country but only 1 for 40 with Derby runners, there's also another stat on Pletcher: something like 1 for 62 in all Churchill Downs races beyond 9 furlongs, only winner 2010 Derby with Super Saver.
#3 Materiality has had good setups in prior races, not so much today, facing other early speeds and inside draw not good for that, and see Pletcher stats above.
#6 Mubtaahij facing much better today than the field he trounced in Dubai but to me was visually impressive and distance won't be a problem as he already has two wins at 1 3/16 miles
#7 El Kabeir is scratched, didn't like him at all.
#8 Dortmund hasn't done anything wrong but short price will be at a pace disadvantage today, plenty of other early speeds.
#9 Bolo is a big sleeper, tough trip vs Dortmund in his last race.
#10 Firing Line, gave Dortmund a real battle two back and that was off a layoff so maybe not 100 percent wound for that one, just hope he isn't to close early, let him settle in mid pack or so.
#12 I was asked about International Star, he has the right running style to be a factor but I just don't think he classes up in the field.
#15 Frosted coming off best race and could even take another step forward, was wide and ran against the grain of the track when winning The Wood, should have a great setup today.
#19 Upstart I've been a big fan of since during his 2 yo season last year, even had him in Breeders Cup Juvenile and he ran great that day, that's how I hope he runs today, one run closer. He was good at Gulfstream during the winter but was taken out of his game, he had to be much closer early that he likes to be because Gulfstream tends to play to speeds. 19 post helps him as he can just settle early and run down the speeds late.
I really don't like #18 American Pharaoh, I never bet favorites in horse races and you really have to get more value than 2-1 in a field this big, I am never a fan of "hype" horses, Pharaoh had a light 3 yo campaign so far, towered over those fields at Oaklawn, and there are so many other early speed types, that won't help Pharaoh either.
#2 Carpe Diem, will be close to early pace and poor inside draw for that, plenty of other speeds on outside of him, Pletcher is the best trainer in the country but only 1 for 40 with Derby runners, there's also another stat on Pletcher: something like 1 for 62 in all Churchill Downs races beyond 9 furlongs, only winner 2010 Derby with Super Saver.
#3 Materiality has had good setups in prior races, not so much today, facing other early speeds and inside draw not good for that, and see Pletcher stats above.
#6 Mubtaahij facing much better today than the field he trounced in Dubai but to me was visually impressive and distance won't be a problem as he already has two wins at 1 3/16 miles
#7 El Kabeir is scratched, didn't like him at all.
#8 Dortmund hasn't done anything wrong but short price will be at a pace disadvantage today, plenty of other early speeds.
#9 Bolo is a big sleeper, tough trip vs Dortmund in his last race.
#10 Firing Line, gave Dortmund a real battle two back and that was off a layoff so maybe not 100 percent wound for that one, just hope he isn't to close early, let him settle in mid pack or so.
#12 I was asked about International Star, he has the right running style to be a factor but I just don't think he classes up in the field.
#15 Frosted coming off best race and could even take another step forward, was wide and ran against the grain of the track when winning The Wood, should have a great setup today.
#19 Upstart I've been a big fan of since during his 2 yo season last year, even had him in Breeders Cup Juvenile and he ran great that day, that's how I hope he runs today, one run closer. He was good at Gulfstream during the winter but was taken out of his game, he had to be much closer early that he likes to be because Gulfstream tends to play to speeds. 19 post helps him as he can just settle early and run down the speeds late.
