2024 Kentucky Derby Discussion

[Coolslaw1]

I'm going with Honor Marie

 

[KJ]

Gun Runner/Justify babies exacta box - 2,6,8

Like this strategy

 

[Timh]

GL fellas, we put a little syndicate together at my country club with 15 guys @ $100/entry. Played 50 combinations of $1 supers boxed, 20 2$ triples boxed and threw some longshot money on WPS #15.

 

[KJ]

GL fellas, we put a little syndicate together at my country club with 15 guys @ $100/entry. Played 50 combinations of $1 supers boxed, 20 2$ triples boxed and threw some longshot money on WPS #15.

I feel like taking the 15 is a must at this point. BOL Doc, that syndicate would do wonders for my OCD

 

[Timh]

I feel like taking the 15 is a must at this point. BOL Doc, that syndicate would do wonders for my OCD

I will tell you KJ our strategy session makes me question doing things in a group setting

 

[guaranteeed]

@Teapot9

Edzo on catching freedom

 

[wizardofodd]

Playing my 3 - $300 each for fun

Local book, so odds are off

Fierceness +225
Endlessly +4500
Domestic Product +2000

Good luck fellas

 

[Inspekdah]

West Saratoga name and the fact I have nothing on him and a gray. Looks real nice

 

[Da Hoss]

Edit my trifecta 2,4,15,17/2,4,7,8,15,17/2,3,4,7,8,12,15,17,19= $140 for $1

 

[Gandolf]

Tri plays:
11 over 2,17 over 3,4,7,8,14,18,19
11 over 3,4,7,8,14,18,19 over 2,17

Halfway down the stretch I thought I was home.

 

[pressitup]

so I had #7 and #11 to win/place

my MIL said did you bet #3?
That was my FIL favorite number.

I told my wife, I'll put $5 on it for her.

 

[Da Hoss]

Halfway down the stretch I thought I was home.

Very close. I was just not a believer in the Japanese horses like you and both hit the hi-5. Congrats to Mystik Dans backers

 

[Gandolf]

I wonder if Forever Young didn't have Sierra Leone giving him the Jalen Brunson hip riding treatment if he might've won.

 

[Gandolf]

Went too light on the McPeek horse too after he won the Oaks. Figured there was no way he'd win both.

 

[Gandolf]

That head on view pisses me off. If the Japanese trainer wasn't such a gentleman he could've called foul and been moved up to second.

The Justify babies finished 17th & 20th.

 

[KJ]

That head on view pisses me off. If the Japanese trainer wasn't such a gentleman he could've called foul and been moved up to second.

The Justify babies finished 17th & 20th.

I think just as they went to commercial Moss said he would have lost the foul claim but maybe I heard it wrong

SL definitely was giving him the business but towards the end it looked like he was giving some of it back

 

[Gandolf]

My thoughts:
Red board for future reference

On Pace - Pace should be at a minimum honest to fast. Speed horses are spread across the starting gate. Fierceness from the 16 hole will need to be hustled down that first 1/4 mile to find good position at/near the front. Dornoch also likes to lead and breaks from the post, so he'll be gunned early as well. Track Phantom and West Saratoga figure to be battling for the front as well from the center gates. Behind them Resilience and Epic Ride could be hung out as they try to find position into the turn.
Pace was 46.63 for the half which is quick but not outlandish, basically what was expected. Fierceness and Track Phantom were both sent, but Dornoch wasn't. Instead Just Steel made up the 3 horse in the vanguard, which was a surprise. West Saratoga, Resilience and Epic Ride all had top ten positions early as expected.

1 Dornoch has shown staying power in his two turn races but was flat last time in the Blue Grass. Will need to be gunned early to get a good position up front were he likes it. If he gets there he's got a fighting chance to run on and catch a piece, but its a daunting task. I'm inclined to be against.
Will be using caller chart summaries to highlight points. Dornoch was not gunned by Saez and so he found himself in unfamiliar waters and trouble naturally follows. "was shuffled back in traffic inside the half mile marker, came again between foes, was bumped and checked hard off heels near the quarter pole, angled out into the stretch but came up empty in the drive."

2 Sierra Leone is an outstanding late runner with the Blue Grass on his resume. He'll need a sharp pace (good chance) and to navigate past 16 or so horses in this one (tough task). He'll get a rail trip so he should be doing his best running the last half mile. Low odds for a horse that might pull this off maybe one time in five.
No surprises here. 18th on the far turn he got the rail trip but then had to figure out how to get past everyone and it inevitably took him wide. Ground loss was a real story in this race. "took closer order between rivals through the second turn, worked his way out eight wide entering the stretch, exchanged bumps with FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) from the three-sixteenths pole to the furlong grounds, fought on tenaciously under stern left handed urging but was denied."

3 Mystik Dan has a sprint win at Churchill and a stunning offtrack win at Oaklawn. He bounced out of that won to finish 3rd in the Ark Derby, could be due to rebound to his Southwest effort, which would make him a contender here. His running style should put him mid pack, he'll be attacking the turn hard. If he can find the front heading for home he has the staying power to hang on. A sneaky win contender. He broke well enough to hold 6th position after the turn, right on the rail. Perfect spot to stalk and when for an opening, and when it came on the rail Hernandez did not hesitate. Saved an impressive amount of ground compared to the other two horses in the photo. The best horse doesn't always win the race, but the best ride almost always does. Personally, I backed off him as a win candidate when McPeek won the Oaks, figuring no trainer is ever lucky enough to get the sweep. WRONG!

4 Catching Freedom is another strong closer, rushing from last to first in the last half mile to win the LA Derby. Sierra Leone beat him down the stretch in the Risen Star. Wouldn't expect anything different here. Could finish ITM. "CATCHING FREEDOM settled off of the inside, tucked in on the second turn, followed the winner into the lane along the inside, continued on well and was making up ground." He actually had the jump on 2 and 11 but was outfinished by them, although the 3 was sucking wind late to make everyone close. Still made the super.

5 Catalytic is lightly raced and finished a distant 2nd to Fierceness in Florida. That field is looking suspect. For Catalytic it was his first two turn effort. He was within a length and a half at 3/4 mile and end up 13 lengths back.....but still in 2nd place?! That's a toss. That race looks even worse now. He broke mid pack, didn't run much, ended up 19th.

6 Just Steel put in a big effort to finish 2nd to Muth in Ark Derby, but essentially ran a pretty flat race. Has no wins in 2024 and turns to bounce up and down in the figures. Next effort likely to be a down one. Pass. I thought he got a little too close to the pace in this one but maybe it was by design. He is not strong in the stretch and maybe the connections figured he'd work better from the front. It's hard to change tactics in a race like this and have it work out.

7 Honor Marie is the third bigtime closer in this race. He just missed running down Catching Freedom in the Ark Derby. Like the other closers he'll need to work out a trip around 16-17 horses, and the connections don't give us a lot of confidence. Has a chance to finish ITM, but it will need to be a hot pace. Dead last at the midpoint of the race proved to be too much work to do as the pace wasn't strong but not suicidal. He did rally on for 8th.

8 Just a Touch is making just his fourth start; this horse was beaten by Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass but has been improving steadily. Figures to get a nice stalking trip. Dangers are whether he's too close to a hot pace and whether he can get the distance. Worth using across the board. Took a bump on the far turn and then quit to finish last. Maybe too green at this point in his career. We all think these three start horses can be the next Justify. They can't.

9 Encino scratched

10 & 11 TO Password and Forever Young are two Japanese entrants. Japanese horses having been coming into the US and winning recently, especially at the Breeders Cup. T O Password only has two races, both in Japan, and therefore can be dismissed. But Forever Young is 5 for 5 with fields as large as 14, along with a UAE Derby Win and a Grade 3 win in Korea. With the favorites in this one facing serious obstacles, I think it might be time for a Japanese horse to climb the mountain. Forever Young is my top choice. Oh my these Japanese horses! "T O PASSWORD (JPN) broke a step slow, checked in traffic into the first turn, settled off the inside into the backstretch, came under a ride nearing the seven-sixteenths pole, looped seven wide through the second turn and into the stretch, had the jockey lose the crop near the furlong marker and continued on well under a fierce hand ride." At first glance it just looked a one run closer attempt, but he went seven wide and got a hand ride for the last eighth? And finished fifth? In his third race? This is a good horse. Hope he stays in the US.

As for my top choice, if you don't think he was the best horse after reading this caller chart then you either had Sierra Leone (plausible) or are blind: FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) lunged at the start and was away slow, was caught in traffic into the first turn and steadied near the fifteen-sixteenths pole, leveled into stride and moved out five wide, mounted a long drive a half mile out, moved up swiftly through the second turn, came seven wide into the stretch, swapped bumps repeatedly with SIERRA LEONE through the upper stretch, battled on stubbornly between rivals thereafter but was narrowly bested." To recap: 1) lunge at the start, cost a length or two, 2) traffic trouble, cost a length, 3) steadied, cost a length or two, 4) five wide on the turn, cost 4-5 lengths, 5) repeated bumping in the upper stretch, cost a length. After losing eight or more lengths of ground from the trip, lost by less than a head. Watch for him the 2nd half of the year.

12 Travel Phantom will be battling for the early lead upfront Fierceness and Dornoch. He set a quick pace in the LA Derby and was run down by two closers in today's field. The third, Sierra Leone, ran him down in the slop in the Risen Star at a slower pace. I think he tries to keep up with the other frontrunners but then fades to the back half of the field. Toss. He and Fierceness ended up running similar races, although he held on a little better. 11th vs 15th is nothing to care about.

13 West Saratoga figures to be the longest shot in the field and for good reason. While 104 is the Brisnet Par for the race, West Saratoga has run ten times and not once broken 90. Toss. Actually broke pretty well and was competitive but took some bumps in the stretch before fading.

14 Endless is another nice closer who won the JR Steaks in stylish fashion, circling wide and running away to a four-length win. Has two all-weather and four turf races on his card. Would normally toss with no dirt record but good turf and all-weather horses have a habit of running well on the Churchill dirt. Has a chance to land ITM, although not a win candidate. Ran a similar race to Honor Marie. Started one ahead, in 19th, and finished one behind, in 9th.

15 Domestic Product won the Tampa Derby with a poor speed figure number after finishing ahead of Fierceness in the Holy Bull. So is he a good horse being hidden by bad figures? I don't see it. Tampa form rarely travels. Toss. There was some buzz about him prerace and Chad had his turf horses cranked up for the day, but I think this guy is just slow. 14th at the quarter pole, 13th at the end.

16 Grand Mo the First finished 3rd in both the Tampa and Florida Derbys, arguably the two worst preps. Another horse that has yet to even see a 90 Bris speed number. Toss. Another slow horse, never really showed anything.

17 Fierceness comes in as the morning line favorite and a two-time grade 1 winner, having won the Juvenile last year in an upset at 16-1 odds. Probably needed the Holy Bull to tighten the screws, then he smashed a mediocre field to win the FL Derby by 13 lengths. Will be sent from his outside post to challenge for the lead, which could make him vulnerable to a wide trip along with a fast pace. He has the class to be leading as they turn for home, the question is how much did the first 9 furlongs take out of him. Definite win candidate needs to be used across the board. Probably the most disappointing horse in the race. Hopped at the start which likely cost him a chance to run from the front. Lost his courage entering the stretch as other came running. He'll probably bounce back somewhere later this year but he'll be tough to trust unless the setup is near perfect.

18 Stronghold scored a pair of prep wins in Sunland and Santa Anita, running back to his 2023 top. Has a definite chance to move forward from here, which would put him on the cusp of win contention. Figures to be anywhere from 6th to 9th on the back stretch depending on the pace. Has made strong moves on the far turn, could see it here as well. Just outside of the main win contenders but definitely in the mix for place/show/fourth.

19 Resilience put in a huge effort in the Wood for Bill Mott, winning confidently over Society Man and an otherwise so-so field. If he runs back to that number he's a win contender, but he's also a bounce candidate off the numbers leap. Has two good maiden efforts at Churchill from last year, so the track shouldn't be a problem. Junior will look to hustle him out early and tuck him in behind the front runners, not an easy task. A fringe (maybe less) win candidate and ITM contender.
Stronghold and Resilience both ran credible races, stalking the leaders early and then running on evenly to finish 6th and 7th. Not exactly Oxbox-level heroic but not bad. Resilience was a little better as he went six wide yet still finished ahead of Stronghold. Your Ohio Derby winner may be one of these two.

20 Society Man finished 2nd in the Wood at 106-1, which again gives you an idea about the non-strength of the field. His speed number jumped 17 points, which makes him a strong bounce candidate. His late running style also means he'll have to navigate the field, although he has one of the best ever in Frankie Dettori to do that. I'm inclined to bet that he'll run about 15th into the backstretch and improve maybe to 9th at best. Toss. I'd say he bounced. Ran four wide early, never better than 9th and slowly fading to 16th. Not sure he's all that good in general.

21 Epic Ride draws in with the scratch of Encino. Was 3rd in the Blue Grass at 51-1, well beaten by Sierra Leone and Just a Touch. Likes to run just behind the leaders, which with the outside post and a fast pace could drain him quickly. I don't see him in the mix. Never really had a chance. Was gunned early and tracked right behind the leaders, then tried to move five wide before fading. Not good enough to overcome the early expenditure of energy and ground loss late.

Recap:
Win contenders 2, 3, 11 (top choice), 17, 19 My win contenders ran 1,2,3,6 and 17 yet idiot as I am I never bothered to box them in a trifecta ($30 for a 50 cent) that paid $556 or an exacta ($20 for a buck) that paid $129. You can lead the horse to water but sometimes they just spit it out, lol.
Other ITM choices 4, 7, 8, 14, 18 Although the super was not unreachable it would've taken more money than I could throw at it.

Tri plays:
11 over 2,17 over 3,4,7,8,14,18,19
11 over 3,4,7,8,14,18,19 over 2,17

 

[Coolslaw1]

I'm going with Honor Marie

i won both my matchups