Road to the Derby

CD downs clocker Paulick says American Pharoah is the best horse he has ever seen after his final derby prep goes out in 58.2 never being asked.

I have yet to really dig in but I don't see the derby going any slower than 1.10, and why would it? All of the top runners Dortmund, American Pharoah, etc have all gone out that fast in almost all of their races and still kicked on. When looking at a closer you have to picture all the traffic and things need to go perfectly if or when the front runners do tire. Tired can't be tired. I picture the winner coming from just slightly off the pace just as California Chrome did in one of the easiest derby trips I have ever seen.

Not much to discuss until the Post Positions come out.
 
Weather report is looking excellent all week for Louisville. Race day in the mid-70's and sunny. Should be a fast track.

The three biggest question marks in this race to me are:

1) Can American Pharoah overcome his breeding, which looks light on distance, and also the lack of being tested (he was 4-5 lengths clear at the top of the stretch in both races this year)? He doesn't have the fastest figures, unusual for the favorite. Has he built up enough of a bottom?

2) How good is Materiality, who's run only 3 times, none as a 2YO, but owns two 9 furlong stakes wins, including a Grade 1?

3) How good is Mubtaahij, shipping in from Dubai after an impressive win (his Timeform number equates to about a 105 BRIS number, right there with the heavyweights), with solid breeding and a world class training known for winning when he sees fit to ship?
 
Horse by Horse through the Derby field (horses listed by expected pace and Quirin number)

Dortmund (E8)
- One of two unbeatens in the field, so he’s done absolutely nothing wrong in his 6 starts. Has four two turn wins, including two Grade 1s. Three straight >100 BRIS speed numbers, has improved each of last 3 races. Has a win at Churchill. His early pace number last race was tops in this field, was +16 to par, yet he still ran 13 flat in the final quarter and 38&1 in the final 3 furlongs, just a tick above what experts look for in a quality Derby horse. Has won his three 2015 races from the lead but was 3 for 3 in 2014 sitting a couple lengths off the pace in each race. Tenacious in the stretch, has never lost ground in any of his six races. A huge horse at 17+ hands, you have to figure that when he hits his best stride he will be running faster than anyone else with less energy expended.

Expectation – A clear win contender, needs to be used liberally in all 4 positions of the exotics. A great horse to key off of especially considering he’ll be 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] choice.

Mr. Z (E6)
– Has been a regular dancer every four weeks for almost a year now, but still only 1 for 12 in his career. Ran a 100 BRIS last year losing by a nose at the Delta Jackpot, then was only a neck behind Dortmund and a nose behind Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity, but his best efforts this year have been dual 92s for show finishes. This will be his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] race in just 5 weeks against stiff competition that he’s failed to beat time and time again.

Expectation – With his running style he’ll want to track near the front, but there’s at least five faster than him, which means he’s going to be hard used early. And with his heavy workload to date he’s a strong candidate to fade. An easy toss out; bet against him in any head to head wagers.

Materiality (EP8)
– The other unbeaten, three for three with all races in 2015, so the Apollo curse beckons. Ran a huge 105 on what seemed to be a very tiring GP track while holding off Upstart in the FL Derby. Appeared to drift out a bit in the lane which makes you wonder about his distance ability, his pedigree is more like a miler, yet he does have two nine furlong wins. Johnny V decided that Carpe Diem was his better choice, so he gets Eclipse winner Castellano, not a bad consolation. Beat Stanford by 5 two races back at nine furlongs, and Stanford gave International Star everything he could handle in the LA Derby, so there’s some flattery there.

Expectation – There are a bunch of concerns: no 2YO races, a stagger home finish in the FL Derby, high speed figure despite a slow time in the same, a 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] choice jockey and Pletcher’s 1 for 40 record at the Derby. Like Danza last year he might be talented enough to hang on to 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] or 4[SUP]th[/SUP], but he won’t be in my win group.

Firing Line (EP8)
– Comes in off a 6 week break, longest of anyone in the field, after demolishing a non-descript group at Sunland. At a 15 Race Rating by BRIS it was the lowest of the final preps. This came after two hard trying but losing efforts to Dortmund in 8.5 furlong graded stakes. Can’t help but think that Dortmund to one extra step forward in the SA Derby while Firing Line merely maintained at Sunland, so what was little separation between the two might be a little wider now. His final 3 furlongs at Sunland where a little slow, but his last furlong at 12&4 under a hand ride was pretty good.

Expectation – Seems similar to Materiality in that he’s got talent but lacks seasoning. He figures to press the pace and will try to hang in there as long as he can, but his pedigree doesn’t scream “distance horse”. Would expect a fade, seems like a 5[SUP]th[/SUP]-10[SUP]th[/SUP] finisher ala Samraat, but I may need to sneak him into the 3-4 spot out of respect for his battles with Dortmund.

Stanford (EP8)
– Has two 9 furlong races under his belt this year, 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in both (before a DQ). The first was a five length loss to Materiality where he drifted out in the lane (the pace was average). But he improved off that and dueled with favorite International Star to the wire in the LA Derby, losing by just a neck. He went 37&3 the last 3 furlongs, quite respectable, although the pace of the race was slightly below average. The bad news: he started poorly in each of his first three races, the tired in the lane in his first route, then put it all together only to get beat by a closer in a slower than average paced race.

Expectation – There’s speculation that he might be the one to go after the Baffert horses early on. If that’s the case then his lack of experience in handling a quick pace is likely to fry him. If he doesn’t go then his notch below talent level will probably be keep him off the board. Coupled with the poor start possibility in a 20 horse field and he looks like a toss to me.

Upstart (EP7)
– Interesting horse has not been able to dodge his share of controversy. He won two sprints as a well considered 2YO in Saratoga before finishing 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] to Daredevil in the 1 turn mile Champagne after running wide. Was 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] or 4[SUP]th[/SUP] choice in the Juvenile and ran an OK 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] despite getting bumped around a bit early in the stretch. Flip the switch to 2015 and he dominates Frosted in the Holy Bull, then appears to put away Itsaknockout on a tiring track, only to get DQ’d for drifting out. Finally in the FL Derby he appears to switch roles and this time looks to be interfered with by Materiality, only he doesn’t get put up. Had a really well received workout last which could signal he’s ready to roll. Doesn’t mind rating and seems to allows get into a good position out of the turn, having sit 1[SUP]st[/SUP] or 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] at the head of the stretch in all 7 of his races. The problem is you just don’t know what you’ll get from him in the lane, where he’s just as likely to hang as he is to draw off.

Expectation – He’s got a world of talent and will have his supporters on race day. I can see him being maneuvered into a great position around the far turn, but I have my doubts as to whether he’ll finish the job. While a win wouldn’t surprise me I don’t think I’ll be using him on top. But underneath he’ll be showing up on tickets.

American Pharoah (EP7)
– Stylish winner of his last four including three straight around two turns and three grade 1s. Was a great 2YO who beat highly regarded Calculator and Juvy winner Texas Red before being put on the shelf and missing the Juvy. Will be the favorite and is being lauded for the ease in which he moves over the track. While the Rebel was a little slow in pace and final speed figure, he followed it by rating nicely off a quick pace in the Ark Derby and then moved ahead on the turn and kicked clear with Espinosa hardly moving a muscle. His final 1/8[SUP]th[/SUP] of 12&3 was very solid. He has the look of a champion and Baffert raves about his ability. Bodemeister comes to mind, only AP doesn’t necessarily need the lead. The only bit of trouble is his pedigree, which is speed-laden with only limited distance influence.

Expectation – I guess it all depends on what you want to believe. When you watch him run he looks like he could be Triple Crown special, but his competition to date has not been terribly fierce in 2015. He’ll be a toss to the pedigree handicappers, and others will pass on him based on his favorite status. I guess I’ll be in the latter camp too. A third straight favorite winning the Derby? In 20 horse fields? If it happens then it’ll confirm my fear that the points system is putting on damper on what has been the best wagering race in the game. Must use in slots 2-4 at least.

More to come
 
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Bolo (EP 6)
– If this were 10 panels on the turf Bolo would probably merit 3/5 odds or better. By the end of 2014 Bolo was a turf freak, romping in the Eddie Logan after breaking his maiden by beating El Camino Real Derby winner Metaboss. Made his first dirt try in 2015 and finished within 2 lengths of Dortmund in the San Felipe, then tried again in the SA Derby and finished a non-threatening 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]. After the race jockey Mike Smith said Bolo would be going back to the turf. Surprise! Maybe he meant AFTER the Derby. Either way, Smith jumped off and Bejarano jumped on. Looking at the chart it appears the pace was too quick for Bolo to stay up with and Dortmund was just too good in the end. A couple of plusses for Bolo at Churchill: 1) it will be his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] off the layoff, and 2) Churchill’s dirt track is surprisingly kind to turf/poly horses.

Expectation – This is a tough sell. A fish out of water horse who’s 0 for 2 against one great dirt horse now finds himself going up against several great dirt horses. Plus his running style will want to keep him near the pace, and he didn’t handle a quick pace so well in the SA Derby. I can’t envision a scenario where he’s all that competitive in here.

Carpe Diem (EP 5)
 – Another 2YO star who’s held his form well in 2015. Road warrior has 4 wins and 1 second in five races, never running twice in a row at the same track. He has three two turn wins and two grade 1s. Only two turn loss was his place finish in the Juvy, where he came from out of the clouds to nip Upstart at the wire. Horse was a $1.6 million purchase and may have the best distance pedigree of anyone in the field. He’s been extremely versatile, able to lead, stalk or make one run late. Johnny V on the mount is as good as there is in working out a trip. Both win’s this year came against pretty decent fields, Diving Rod’s win in the Lexington flatters.

Expectation – He’s got good speed figures, he’s run well against a quick pace, he’s got the pedigree. There’s a lot to like about Carpe Diem. The one drawback might be 1 for 40 trainer Todd Pletcher. But Velazquez on board tells me he thinks this is Pletcher’s best mount. This horse is been favored in all 5 races, has never been beaten by anyone in the field, and figures to go off at 8 or 9 to 1? OK I’ll bite. Use across the board.

Frosted (EP4)
 – A horse that always seemed to be a disappointment until he put it all together in the Wood. Apparently he had minor surgery after his poor Fountain of Youth to fix his palette and breathing and it worked like a charm! If you throw out that FOY result you see consistent improvement culminating in the top BRIS number for any horse in the field. He’s got a stout pedigree and is reportedly working well post-Wood. His closing final furlong of 12&3 and final 3 furlongs of 36&2 are excellent. The Wood has been a poor harbinger in recent years (though Wicked Strong was 4[SUP]th[/SUP] last year) but this is a horse that looks like he’s putting it all together at the right time.

Expectation – He should be able sit around 7[SUP]th[/SUP] or 8[SUP]th[/SUP] and start winding up on the far turn, moving into a striking position within a length or two at the head of the stretch. After that it’ll be a question of whether he can close like he did in the Wood. I know Rosario will get every last ounce out of him. He figures to be 12 to 15 to 1 and at the price I’ll be putting him on top in some tickets. Use across the board.

Mubtaahij (estimated EP4)
 – Winner of two straight and 4 of 5 in Dubai on their rebuilt dirt course, including back to back 9.5 furlong races. Avenged his loss by a head to Maftool in by romping by an impressive 8 lengths the UAE Derby. His Timeform rating equated to about 105 BRIS, which would put him right up there with the main contenders. His pedigree is solid, and his trainer is world renowned for shipping with purpose. His closing fractions were acceptable as well.

Expectation – He has his supporters, and one of these days a Dubai shipper will come over and win America’s most prestigious race. But I fall into the camp that says it’ll be in a relatively weak year for US 3YOs, and this year is anything but weak. Will use a bit in 2-4 slots but will stand against on top.

El Kabeir (EP3)
 – Spent the winter knocking around on the Aqueduct inner, so you know he’s tough. Won the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill last fall with Calvin Borel on board, and he’ll ride him on Saturday. He’s got a few issues, namely: 1) He was beating tomato cans on the inner in races that were Grade 3 in name only. Once some talent showed up for the Wood he finished a non-competitive 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]. 2) His work in the lane is suspect. He gained no ground in the Wood, got beat on a fast track in the Withers with an average pace setup, and almost blew a 2 length lead in the stretch in the KyJC to Imperia, who’s done little since.

Expectation – He’s got three 100-101 BRIS numbers, including in the Wood, so there’s some talent there. But his pedigree is not great for the classic distance. He seems like the kind of horse that will run along around 12[SUP]th[/SUP] in the pack on the backstretch and then finish evenly in around 9[SUP]th[/SUP] or 10[SUP]th[/SUP].

Ocho Ocho Ocho (EP3)
 – Not entirely sure what to make of Ocho cubed. Broke out big last October winning his maiden voyage then ran a 104 BRIS in spring stake on Breeders Cup day. He seemed destined for greatness in winning the Delta Jackpot with Mike Smith aboard. Then he stunk in his 2015 debut in the San Felipe and Smith jumped off. Maybe he needed the race because he broke sharp in the Bluegrass and led through 6 furlongs before succumbing to Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon, but managed to hang on for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and punch his ticket to Louisville. Could he improve again 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] off the layoff? It’s possible. His pedigree doesn’t scream distance but its not terrible.

Expectation – The biggest negative on his resume is he absolutely stinks in the stretch. In each of his 3 two turn races he’s lost ground down the lane, including hanging on to win by a nose in the Jackpot. He seems better suited to be a one turn miler or even a sprinter. I can see him being a surprise pace setter on Saturday and then fading badly to the bottom quarter of the field. Or Desormeaux will try to rate him, strangle the will out of him, and he gently fades to the back half of the field. Either way he’s a toss for me.

Itsaknockout (P4)
 – 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] most lightly raced with only 4 starts. After two 1 turn wins he burst out with a DQ win over upstart in the FOY that many felt was an unjust put up. Followed it up with a dull effort in the FL Derby, but his ticket was already punched. His speed figure in a 1M optional claimer in January was solid, but his two turn numbers have been significantly less, which is surprising since his pedigree has strong distance influences. A sharp workout this week shows he’s sound, but generally seems a cut or two below the best and would need to improve quite a lot to be in the mix here.

Expectation – Figures to be running around 12-14[SUP]th[/SUP] on the backstretch and may pass a few tired horses while running an even 8[SUP]th[/SUP] or so. Don’t see him as much of a threat, so he’s a toss.

Tencendur (P3)
 - Has run nothing but two turn races at Aqueduct for his career, four on the inner and the last one a breakout effort in the Wood, where he poked a head in front at the top of the stretch only to be overrun by Frosted. Nonetheless his 105 BRIS puts him up with the elites. However his big leap in figures makes him susceptible to a bounce. His pedigree is more speed favoring, another reason why his big effort may not be duplicated.

Expectation – While he stuck fairly close to the pace in the Wood, he has a history of laying a little further back. His stretch runs have only been so-so, his final fraction of 13 flat in the Wood was a little disappointing, but the 37&1 for the last 3 furlongs was OK. The bounce possibility and the fact that he’s still only 1-2 head to head with El Kabeir makes me have doubts. May use him as a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]/4[SUP]th[/SUP] place horse in some exotics, but not going crazy with it.

War Story (P1)
– Showed great promise with his maiden breaker at Churchill last fall, winning fairly easily at a tricky 7 furlongs after a slow start and going 6 wide. Improved in his next with a win at Fairgrounds over a mile despite getting banged around on the break. Then he ran into International Star and later International Star and Stanford and he was relegated to place-show status. He simply hasn’t shown the late kick to run with those two. Now add the best of the best into the mix and you can see that he’ll probably be in over his head.

Expectation – He’s been notorious for starting slow and/or finding trouble at the break. I’d expect that will put him in the back third of the field earlly, and while he may has enough distance pedigree to run OK at the distance he’ll probably flatten out and pass a few tired horses to finish around 7[SUP]th[/SUP] or 8[SUP]th[/SUP]. Not seeing enough to keep him out of the toss pile.

Danzig Moon (S2)
– Took a nice leap in the Blue Grass rating well and closing with some energy against Carpe Diem. It was slight but he actually gained about a half length on him while closing 12&4. Leparoux seems a good fit for this one to sit patient and make one good run. Blew the doors off in his last work at Churchill, has been looking good according to reports. Seems like a sneaky sharp play to catch a piece late at a Commanding Curve type of price. His pedigree has ample distance influence in it, so the ten furlongs might be to his liking.

Expectation – The best scenario for him is to be sitting around 10[SUP]th[/SUP] within 5 lengths of the leaders on the backstretch and then just tracking the win contenders and staying within those same 5 lengths down to the wire. That might just put him in the top four. Will find a spot on some vertical tickets.

International Star (S1)
– A four time graded stake winner, including three straight wins in 2015, and set to go off around 15/1? What’s the deal? The biggest impediment appears to be the speed figures he got while running in LA. His best BRIS number is 99, which puts him a cut below the main contenders. He’s also only recently shown his affinity to dirt, having broken his maiden on grass and recording his first big win in the Grey on the poly at Woodbine. In his two 2 dirt tries as a 2YO he finished 7 and 5¾ lengths out of it. However, he continues to show steady improvement, last six BRIS numbers are 85, 87, 89, 94, 97 and 99. Also, he has always gained ground in the stretch in each of his six dirt and poly starts, so you know he’ll be coming late. His distance pedigree is OK, not probably just above mid-level in this group.

Expectation – Another incremental improvement would put him very close to the top horses in the field, but still just a little bit behind. Kind of reminds me of Revolutionary, I think he’s a must use in spots 2-4 and if you feel like putting in a win bet I wouldn’t talk you off him.

Keen Ice (S1) – One run closer getting some buzz as a possible Commanding Curve but his finishing ability doesn’t seem as strong. In comparing their 2015 campaigns the following items stick out:

  1. Curve’s Derby was 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] off the layoff, Keen Ice is running his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] straight start – Advantage Curve
  2. Curve jumped from 82 to 98 BRIS in his final prep, Keen Ice dropped from 94 to 92 – Advantage Curve
  3. Curve closed in 13 flat after running 1:13&1 for 6 furlongs, chasing a quick pace. Keen Ice closed in 12&4 after running 1:14&2 behind an average pace. Push.

On top of all that you have a much stronger field lined up in this year’s Derby.

Expectation – Keen Ice has been beaten by 8 different runners in this field in his last five races, along with potential AE Bold Conquest. And horses NOT faced include AP, Dortmund, Firing Line, Materiality and Mubtaahij. He doesn’t appear to be sitting on a big race and looks outmatched here. I like other closers more, toss.

Far Right (S0)
– Ignored once American Pharoah started tearing things up in Arkansas, this horse carved out a nice niche for himself during the prep season, winning the Smarty Jones and Southwest before skipping the Rebel and finishing a distant second to AP in the Ark Derby. Now this guy is a closer. He gained 1½ lengths on the wrapped up AP, closing in 37&4 and 12&2 (!) for the final fraction. Before that his two stakes wins came from 5 and 6 lengths back at the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] call and 6 and 9 lengths back at the first call. He broke his maiden at Churchill and a gaining 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Street Sense when he came home 4 wide. His speed figures don’t make him a win contender but he’s one of the better clunker candidates I see. Second start off the freshening could allow for a nice step forward.

Expectation – Figures to be either 19[SUP]th[/SUP] or 20[SUP]th[/SUP] coming out of the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] turn. He’ll start picking off horses at the start of the far turn. He’ll pass most of the tired horses down the stretch. Doubtful he can climb all the way to 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] might be a tall task, but he could be in range of 4[SUP]th[/SUP] place.

 
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Kentucky Derby angles: Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figures

By Dick Jerardi

International Star – Once he got around two turns on dirt, his Beyers went up immediately and have crept up with every start. This year, the figures have gone up six points, three points and five points. With the promise of a solid pace to run at it, this colt should be sitting on another forward move and his first triple-digit Beyer, which absolutely gives him a chance to hit the board. Probably needs a pace meltdown to win.
Dortmund – Showed great promise as a 2-year-old with Beyers of 81, 97 and 91. Has more than fulfilled that promise with 3-year-old Beyers of 104, 104 and 106 while remaining unbeaten in six starts. Given that he has shown more speed as a 3-year-old, but was able to win from off the pace as a 2-year-old, this massive colt could be sitting on the race of his life and has a realistic chance to hit 110 or more on the Beyer scale.
Carpe Diem – Even though he has been extremely impressive in his two stakes wins this year, this beautifully bred colt has not made a giant speed figure move from his 2-year-old season when he got numbers of 84, 91 and 93. This year, his numbers are 98 and 95, nice but not the kind of improvement you would like to see from a serious Derby contender. More likely to run in the 95 to 98 range again than get the 105 to 110 it is going to take to win this Derby.
American Pharoah – Put a line through his first start and you have one of the more amazing talents to arrive at the Derby in recent memory, with four consecutive triple-digit Beyers, two as a 2-year-old and two as a 3-year-old. The pair of 101’s he ran last year suggested this is a horse capable of giant speed figures. The 105 he got when winning the Arkansas Derby is more than a suggestion; it is a shout. More likely to hit 110 in the Derby than go backward.
Frosted – The 103 in the Wood Memorial came without warning, but it was after a throat operation and in his second start with blinkers. The 89 in the 2014 Remsen was promising as was the 95 in the Holy Bull. The Wood did not look at all fluky. It is likely this colt will run back to that number, which can certainly put him on the superfecta ticket, if not in the winner’s circle.
Mubtaahij - Our best Beyer estimate for this colt’s dominant UAE Derby win is a 97. Even with his terrific form at Meydan over the last four months, four wins and a second, that number is not even close to what is going to take to win this Derby. And that is assuming he is going to bring the same form after the long trip. He is more likely to regress off that mediocre estimate than go forward.
Materiality – This is the toughest call in the race. Comes in with the best Beyer going for him, the 110 he earned in the Florida Derby, and nearly a century and a half of history going against him. Is this finally going to be the exception to the “can’t win without racing at 2 Derby rule.” In a year with less talent in the gate, I would say very possibly. Not in this race, with the pace and race pressure. More likely to go back than forward.
El Kabeir - It was clear after the Jerome and Withers that this was the teenager who dominated in high school, but could not keep up with the later-maturing and more-talented athletes in college. Last year, he got Beyers of 93 and 94. This year, it has been 95, 93, 88 and 94, super consistent, but not good enough to be close in the Derby. Let’s call it a 95, which should beat half the field, but which also means half the field is going to beat him.
Upstart – If he gets a really, hot contested pace, he has the numbers to spring an upset, with the 102 he got last year and the 105 and 108 he has gotten this year. He will be farther back than usual, but that may be a good thing and could even help him run to the very best Beyers of his career and maybe even better. Great horse to use in tris and supers because of his consistency and proven ability to hit triple digits on the Beyer scale.
Far Right – Fully exposed as not nearly fast enough with Beyers of 89, 91 and 92 in three 2015 starts. Will have to pass nearly the entire field and likely will pass half because many are just too slow. Should catch a few more that hit the wall in the stretch, but there is no reason to think this is any more than a low 90s Beyer horse on his best day.
Itsaknockout – There is nothing in this colt’s history to suggest he can hit 90 on the Beyer scale, much less improve so dramatically that he has a chance to threaten the board. When you see a 3-year-old get an 88 in his second start on the Derby trail and immediately regress to a 76 that is as bad a sign as you can get. Much more likely to run in the 70s or 80s than get into the 90s.
Firing Line – Love the Beyer pattern with this colt. Got an 86 in his debut, followed by an 87 and 91 during his solid 2-year-old season. Followed that up with a 104 and 97 this year. His three losses have been by a less than a length total, with two photo finish defeats to Dortmund. Absolutely expect him to run in the 105 vicinity and that could be good enough to get him a big piece, perhaps all of it.
Danzig Moon – Has gotten gradually faster from 2 to 3, but he was never that fast at 2 and is not remotely close to fast enough now. The 69 and 83 last year were nice efforts, but not the kind that portend Derby. The 87, 76 and 90 when a never-really-in-it second to Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass were better, but still way too slow. Figure somewhere between a 90 and 92 for an improving horse that still has too much improving to do.
War Story – Kept showing the potential to explode this winter in Louisiana, but never did and now looks like he has hit a plateau. International Star beat him three times and the third was the most definitive. His last four Beyers of 86, 86, 91 and 91 are not indicative of a horse with a Derby chance. There is no reason to think he won’t run a low 90 again, but that won’t get him anything against this field.
Tencendur – Not sure where that 100 when second in the Wood Memorial came from exactly. His previous four Beyers were 68, 75, 89 and 82. El Kabeir had handled him easily twice. Given how much more difficult this race is, he is more likely to run closer to a high 80 than improve to a higher triple-digit number.
Stanford – Got Beyers of 93 and 98 in his only two route races, but both came after setting a moderate pace with an uncontested lead. Neither of those scenarios will happen here, so this is a horse that could regress dramatically.
Mr. Z – Has lost 11 straight races and has not been able to improve his late 2-year-old Beyers at all. Got 90 and 91 Beyers in his final two starts last year. His best figure this year has been a 90 when third in the Southwest and Arkansas Derby. Much more likely to hit the wall and run in the 70s than to get into high 90s.
Ocho Ocho Ocho – Unbeaten in three starts as a 2-year-old, topping out with a 90 in the Delta Jackpot. Has made no forward move this year with a 76 and then an 86. Even that 90 gives him no chance and he is not very likely to get a number anywhere near that good.
Bolo – Beyers are even better on dirt than grass. His thirds in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby were both solid, with Beyers of 101 and 95. He just had the misfortune of running against Dortmund in both races. Probably going to be farther back than in any race of his career, but has the type of move and talent that could put him on the super ticket if enough speed horses and chasers hit the wall. Should run right around 100.
Keen Ice - Improved nicely from 2 to 3, but started from too low a base. The 76 he got in the Remsen improved to an 87, 88 and 87 this year in races against some of top Derby contenders. Was not close in any of those races and does not have a number that can win. If the race collapses and everything possible goes right, the colt could hit the 90s on the Beyer scale and sneak into the super ticket at a big price.
 
Hoping Chatterbox takes money because I'm probably going to try to beat her. The Oaks races in FL and NY came out with higher ratings than La, Oaklawn and even Santa Anita. I'm looking at 4,5,13 mainly with 12 a little bit. Will depend on how the track is playing.
 
Based on my readings here and a few other sites I'll be looking at Dortmund, AP and Frosted to use in some fashion. Leaving tomorrow, thanks for the great info guys.
 
Thanks LB and thanks for the updates. Agree with Dortmund's draw. I hope Frosted gets in the middle as well.
 
anybody do any neat Derby games?
I have a group that just draws 1-20 and your # wins you take the pot.

we'll do the same thing that night for May Pac Draw for rounds 1-12
 
When we host our Derby party people just buy the horses out a brown bag($5 and $10 options) for all races leading to the Derby....winner take all. For the Derby we auction them off and it was winner take all until last year we decided to pay win, place and show.
 
Dortmund, Frosted, Upstart are my 3 favs. Throw in the Dubai horse as a wild card.
6,8,15,19. Next in would be Carpe diem and intl star.
 
My take on some of the Oaks day card:

Race 2: #4 Killer Partner has worked out 3 straight 2nd place finishes, the last 2 coming from tough posts at the rail and the far outside, should be involved throughout the running and a must use. #3 Seoul Gold closed well in a Turf sprint in debut and has the pedigree to stretchout to this mile distance and trainer wins at a good clip in 2nd career try, won't get the 15-1 ML but still good value at 8-1. #12 Folded Wings didn't break well in debut and then was bumped hard into the rail at the 1/4 pole and still got up for the show in a 13 horse field any improvement from the gate and a better trip makes her a contender. #9 Kiteta ran an even 3rd in debut at big odds over a yielding turf, might appreciate the firmer footing today. #11 Vouch for Kitten is only 1st time starter but hard to ignore Ward/Ramsey with a Kitten Joy offspring on a big day
 
Race 4: #5 Counterfactual was boxed in on the rail for a good portion of the stretch in but did show a nice turn of foot once she had room to run. #13 Liberty Bond can be caught hung out wide again as in last but with not much early speed signed in here might be able to clear and work out a nice stalking trip outside of traffic. #7 Cash in My Pocket comes in off a long a long layoff, but was improving when she went to the bench lat summer, might be tough for the win spot but can hit the board. #3 Talyor Lane, toss her last over dirt as she has had her best performances over turf, has a shot. #9 Mighty Souper tired sprinting on turf in debut then never really threatened at 9F running evenly and not showing much kick in last, mixed signals.
 
My A's/B's/C's for Oaks day :cheers3:

[TABLE="width: 256"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]A's
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]B's
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]C's
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 2
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]4,9
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]5,6,12
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]7,11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 3
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]6,8
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]7
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 4
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]5
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]1,11
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]6,7,9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 5
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]3,5,7
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]10
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 6
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]1,4
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]6
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 7
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]5
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]2,4
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]7,8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 8
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]2,7
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]3
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 9
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]3,8,11,12
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]2,7
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]9,10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 10
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]1,3,8
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]2,7,12
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 11
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]4,5,13
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]12
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]8,14
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Gandolf said:
My A's/B's/C's for Oaks day :cheers3:

[TABLE="width: 256"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]A's[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]B's[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]C's[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]4,9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]5,6,12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]7,11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]6,8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]1,11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]6,7,9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]3,5,7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]1,4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]2,4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]7,8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]2,7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]3,8,11,12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]2,7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]9,10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]1,3,8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]2,7,12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Race 11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]4,5,13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]8,14[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...
like it Gandy! Use some of that NCAA Free play $ on a HUGE Pick 6 play!
haha that's what I'm doing!
 
Protonico grinding hard to get past Noble Bird, yikes.

Bridgemohan riding his ass off on 19/1 and 20/1 shots today yet couldn't get home the 4/5 favorite in the 1st. Go figure.
 
Advanced wagering is available on the Derby. The current big odds movers:

Ocho Ocho Ocho down from 50/1 to 28/1
Materiality up from 12/1 to 18/1
Tencendur up from 30/1 to 69/1
Danzig Moon down from 30/1 to 19/1
Dortmund up from 3/1 to 5/1
Bolo up from 30/1 to 48/1
Keen Ice down from 50/1 to 30/1
Frosted down from 15/1 to 10/1
Mr. Z down from 50/1 to 28/1
Upstart up from 15/1 to 35/1
Frammento up from 50/1 to 99/1

Favorite holding steady at 5/2

I might have to dip into some Upstart and Bolo if those lines hold.
 
kjohnson109 said:
They're doing an Oaks/Woodford/Derby pk3 eh
Click to expand...
That wager is against my religion, a few years ago I had a great price in Oaks, I'll Have Another in Derby at a great price, tried to beat fav in Woodford Reserve and Little Mike stuck it up my ass, double was a big payout but I only played pk3
 
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