2008 cfb -- time to post my bowl card so far--updated card post 277

RetroVK · Dec 25, 2008

RJ Esq said:
I think the line continues to move in Maryland's favor but not due to the 3 WAC losses. Just name recognition.

Yes i can see that happening as well.

RetroVK · Dec 25, 2008

RJ Esq said:
Game was over at halftime, VK and could have been alot worse.

figures ,,, i never get to watch the no sweat games but always see every play of the ones that could give me a heart attack

RetroVK · Dec 25, 2008

HUNTDOG said:
Nice hit bro.

thanks huntdog.

i really feel locked in right now.

I feel like Wake was the right side , tcu in defeat was the right side , notre dame last night was the right side and that southern miss was one of my better capped games of the year. All four games went as i had capped for the most part so feeling kind of self-assured right now compared to how i felt heading into bowl season.

RetroVK · Dec 25, 2008

GWarner27 said:
i joined ya, albeit small, but ND was in control on the first drive that sputtered just inside UH territory. They got a quick stop (not a 3-n-out but close) and then punched it in. Then scored again to make it 14-0 and allowed a Hawaii TD then coasted from there really.

...i'm hoping Nevada drops and i haven't locked it in yet because i think it might

VK,

it's not that simple as i split my play on the 3.5 and the ML, unfortunately.

...it had been going really well for me as i had won both plays most of the time when i've done that this season but it didn't work yesterday as i escaped with 0.111 units before today's +1.00

Atleast you pulled in a profit , GW. I will be making a play on latech from the WAC , so i am not sure why i focused in on nevada as the only game where the line could be effected .. i suppose it is because not many people respect the MAC either as compared to ACC maryland.

lets hope we get a better number than what is currently out there.

RetroVK · Dec 25, 2008

SportsNut said:
]]

Didnt see the game but happy with the result-big hit for me:cheers:

:cheers: Nut.

'an_horse'

RetroVK · Dec 25, 2008

bull said:
Merry Christmas, Kyle. and thanks for the encouragement you furnished me on that easy ND win. I never bet Hawaii games, but this one really looked good to me. #33 in the confidence pool for me.

Sorry I shied away from USM - great job, my friend, but glad I steered away from TCU. I just get nervous when everyone seems to like the same side.

I'll accept your opinion if you care to share it on any game at any time, so I am interested in your take on the ones you are passing on.

Troy's loss discourages me a bit from taking FAU , but the points vs a MAC team do look tempting.

And I'm leaning No Carolina due to coaching ad for UNC, I think a more balanced O , and bowl games are old hat for WVU whereas UNC has to be a little excited about this one. If I knew that Pat White was not going to run wild, I would be all over UNC.

Not too crazy about the Cal-U game. I suppose I would like points against a Pac 10 team.

Thanks again for all your efforts. :tiphat:

Merry christmas Bull.

With FAU missing quite a few starters for the motor city bowl it took away any chance at playing them as a side. I am also not a fan of laying that many points with such a terrible defense like the chips are sporting. Frantz Joseph for the owls is a beast on defense and was leading the nation in tackles heading into bowl season. So i think the best defensive player on the field will be on the owls side. But they lose a linebacker to ineligibility too. Lefevour should have a field day on FAU pass defense though as they have given up 69 percent completions on the road this year and seem to struggle more when playing on the fast stuff instead of grass. looking over central michigan this year, their out of conference opponents always seemed to overachieve offensively.

Georgia scored 56 .... avg 32.1
purdue scored 32 ..... avg 24.7
indiana scored 34 ............ avg 20.5

And of course the eastern michigan game was so atrocious. Just don't see lefevour losing this game though.... so i cant play a team laying this many with a terrible defense and have no desire to take FAU and hope they play within the number while missing some key components. Game rates to be high scoring but FAU has no kicker and is missing two starting offensive linemen and the total is at 67. Kaptain Kangaroo may run the ball more than we expect him to..... just not a fan of trying to outscore totals that high. cmich minus 7 looks like a solid line to me.

The Troy performance vs soutehrn miss certainly is not a vote of confidence for FAU either but while Troy is slightly better than FAU , they aren't all that much better. FAU was experiencing some team chemistry problems at the time. Kind of reminds me of rutgers in that once they got that settled , they began to play good football. In fact , FAU played even with Troy in a 13 point loss to them earlier in the year. I watched that game ... one of the few sunbelt games i have had the good fortune to see. So i am a bit perplexed that Troy got a ton of love from people everywhere but FAU has become forgotten. They were far and away the preseason favorites to win the sunbelt and some were even thinking they would give texas a run for their money in the season opener.

Statistically the two teams are very even imo ... BUT several things make me think the -7 is the right line

1. Venue. Central michigan will have more fans in detroit than FAU. I doubt that too many people are traveling from florida to detroit to spend their holiday. Also of note is central michigans familiarity with the stadium and experience playing in this bowl ..though that also takes away some luster and motivation i would think. The game is played on turf and FAU tends to struggle more when off of grass although that is mostly due to playing a lot of road games on turf and their home games being on grass.

2. QB. Sometimes it seems rusty Smith makes a play that costs his team a game while lefevour is making plays to will his team to victory

3. conference. I know it is hard to believe but the MAC is a considerably better conference than the sunbelt at this point in time.

4. Key losses already mentioned with FAU team. I would hate for the cover to come down to a kick when FAU does not have their guy suited.

So i am passing.

will have more on the unc wvu game later. Difficult game to handicap in my opinion.....

SportsNut · Dec 25, 2008

great post bro:cheers:

From what I have read this kicker is better . Walked at auburn. The sun sentintel blog thinks so and coach said he wont be losing any sleep if he has to call on the new kid.

http://blogs.trb.com/sports/college/fau/blog/

watch him kick:shake:

Rusty does have TO issues but he did have 14 tds last 4 games and cmu has forced just 15 this season

FAU played at texas, at minny , at mich st ,at mtsu and vs troy to start the year

the mac is top heavy while outside of ntxas every sun belt team is competive. nte drags the conf down while ball st does the opposite

:cheers:fau for me to many pts imo

GWarner27 · Dec 26, 2008

vk,

any worries on your end that Nevada is now -2? Maybe it's just my book but i'm starting to get very worried and i think if it hits 2.5 i'd have to lock it in there before it hits 3.

...i'm less confident in that play now but i still like having my money in Kaepornick's hands

RetroVK · Dec 26, 2008

SportsNut said:
great post bro:cheers:

From what I have read this kicker is better . Walked at auburn. The sun sentintel blog thinks so and coach said he wont be losing any sleep if he has to call on the new kid.

http://blogs.trb.com/sports/college/fau/blog/

watch him kick:shake:

Rusty does have TO issues but he did have 14 tds last 4 games and cmu has forced just 15 this season

FAU played at texas, at minny , at mich st ,at mtsu and vs troy to start the year

the mac is top heavy while outside of ntxas every sun belt team is competive. nte drags the conf down while ball st does the opposite

:cheers:fau for me to many pts imo

thanks for the blog link. good stuff. If the kicker is good it obviously helps the FAU and over bettors.

FAU ooc schedule was tougher than cmich without question and cause for their poor start. Another point of note is that the michigan state game was played in really bad weather which put them in the position of trying to outrush ringer in that game.

i think from top to bottom the MAC is better than the sunbelt. Just my opinion.

gl with FAU nut.

RetroVK · Dec 26, 2008

GWarner27 said:
vk,

any worries on your end that Nevada is now -2? Maybe it's just my book but i'm starting to get very worried and i think if it hits 2.5 i'd have to lock it in there before it hits 3.

...i'm less confident in that play now but i still like having my money in Kaepornick's hands

I think we have time ... there are still numbers lower than the two and i wont start to panic until -3 starts popping up and i wouldn't be surprised if there are maryland backers waiting for that number .. so when/if it does hit a -3 i think it will get hit .. so we should see a 3 come and go once or twice before forced to make the bet. Also , Drbob has already released his picks i believe and i wouldnt be surprised if walters has his stuff in already .. though we would probably be best served asking ckr about that .. i have no idea. My point is there wont be any artificial moves on the line at this point.

One thing is for certain ... i am not rushing into a play on nevada. What i mean is that i have spent a lot of time examining this game and have yet to pull the trigger. If LaTech gets destroyed by northern illy ( which i dont see happening ) then i may really question playing the wolfpack .. but after all this time ( between line release and now ), i wont let a line move force my hand .. and i dont think it will.

~Utah · Dec 26, 2008

:texas:

pags11 · Dec 26, 2008

La. Tech won't get destroyed by NIU, you can count on that...Alexander really cost Hawaii last night, still think McMackin made a mistake taking Funaki out midway through the year...even if Funaki plays ND still wins by 10-14 points...very impressive performance for ND...I'm telling you bro, Maryland doesn't want to be in this game, Heyward-Bey is questionable and I've heard doesn't want to risk injury as the NFL draft is right around the corner...Nevada, in turn, is fired up...I am no means a Nevada fan, but feel they are the side here...also feel FAU is the play tomorrow as well...

pags11 · Dec 26, 2008

oh yeah, Merry Christmas brother...

SportsNut · Dec 26, 2008

vegaskyle said:
thanks for the blog link. good stuff. If the kicker is good it obviously helps the FAU and over bettors.

FAU ooc schedule was tougher than cmich without question and cause for their poor start. Another point of note is that the michigan state game was played in really bad weather which put them in the position of trying to outrush ringer in that game.

i think from top to bottom the MAC is better than the sunbelt. Just my opinion.

gl with FAU nut.

steady downpour at msu with wind and terrible field conditions.

agree on the mac its just closer to insignificant then how I have read described

think +7.5 -120 for a max bet and small ml

thanks:cheers:

RetroVK · Dec 26, 2008

pags11 said:
La. Tech won't get destroyed by NIU, you can count on that...Alexander really cost Hawaii last night, still think McMackin made a mistake taking Funaki out midway through the year...even if Funaki plays ND still wins by 10-14 points...very impressive performance for ND...I'm telling you bro, Maryland doesn't want to be in this game, Heyward-Bey is questionable and I've heard doesn't want to risk injury as the NFL draft is right around the corner...Nevada, in turn, is fired up...I am no means a Nevada fan, but feel they are the side here...also feel FAU is the play tomorrow as well...

I agree with EVERYTHING you just said...... lets hope we are right. LaTech as i have stated before is a definite play for me. it will be on my card

merry xmas pags .. hope you got a lot of pop tarts and hamburger helper from santa.

well except that i am avoiding the FAU game ,,, everything else.

Yanks27Sox9 · Dec 26, 2008

nice hit on ND, VK :cheers:

Yanks27Sox9 · Dec 26, 2008

pags11 said:
La. Tech won't get destroyed by NIU, you can count on that...Alexander really cost Hawaii last night, still think McMackin made a mistake taking Funaki out midway through the year...even if Funaki plays ND still wins by 10-14 points...very impressive performance for ND...I'm telling you bro, Maryland doesn't want to be in this game, Heyward-Bey is questionable and I've heard doesn't want to risk injury as the NFL draft is right around the corner...Nevada, in turn, is fired up...I am no means a Nevada fan, but feel they are the side here...also feel FAU is the play tomorrow as well...

luv this post, pags :tiphat:

RetroVK · Dec 26, 2008

Yanks26Sox7 said:
nice hit on ND, VK :cheers:

thanks yanks.

RetroVK · Dec 26, 2008

I will not be playing a side or total here ..... but thought this might help Bull and others who are considering a play.

Meineke Bowl

Played in Charlotte , North Carolina

West By God Virginia vs. North Carolina

Location -- edge North Carolina

It’s in their home state so I have to give a slight edge to the Heels as far as locale goes. This is probably not a huge edge though as it is a hop skip and a jump from Morgantown to Charlotte anyway. Also , the game is played at Bank of America Stadium which sports a grass field and wvu has seemed to struggle more when playing on grass. They struggled at ECU , at Colorado , the first half at UCONN , and at Pittsburgh. Yes some of that is due to being away for all those games but their lone away game played on artificial turf which is their home surface was against Louisville where they put up 35. So I think the grass has to be considered a slight edge for UNC especially since they played all games but one this year on grass. Not as huge an edge as some might think but whatever edge there is has to go to the heels.

Athletes -- small edge unc
Both teams have a lot of speed. Ironically , I think North Carolina has the better athlete on defense and wvu has the better athletes on offense. Differentiating between the two won’t lead you to a strong conclusion of one over the other but I give a slight edge overall to unc.

Motivation -- Edge North Carolina
Whether realistic or not , West Virginia had thoughts in the back of their minds that they could be a BCS championship type team. They sputtered early under the new coach before righting the ship to make a run at the Big East title. Losses to Cincinnati and to Pitt in the backyard brawl ( mega-revenge game ) took that away from them as well. Playing in the meineke bowl has to be a disappointment for this team after playing in the sugar bowl in 2005 , the gator in 2006 and the fiesta bowl last year. HUGE downgrade in the bowl and dashed expectations. However , this will be the last game played by Pat White as a QB … not just with the Neers but likely EVER. He can’t play that position in the nfl so this is it for him. That has to be a huge motivating factor for him to leave it on the field here. You do have to worry if you are a wvu backer that Stewart rewards White with more pass attempts than a normal game for his career at the school. North Carolina on the other hand , hasn’t been to a bowl since 2004 and should atleast be excited about being here a little bit and the proximity of the game to home may keep the players and fans engaged. I think this is a nice accomplishment considering that the Heels lost two key players for most of the season when Yates went down ( he came back from injury for the final two games of the year ) at QB and Do-everything WR Brandon Tate was lost for the year early in the season. Players emerged with Sexton playing manageable football and H Nicks turning into a stud at WR. In other words , I think this bowl bid is an accomplishment for the unc kids and a disappointment for the wvu kids. So I think the motivation should definitely be an advantage for UNC as a whole but I would also be aware that this is the last game at QB for White. Qoute from Davis …
"We wanted to play in meaningful games, games that were important," Davis said. "We wanted to play on national TV. We wanted to play when the blimp was in the air. There were a lot of things that we were able to accomplish this year and going to a bowl game is certainly one of those steps along the journey of trying to build the program."

Coaching -- HUGE edge UNC

Stewart vs. Davis. If I need to elaborate then you should just take my word for everything.

Special teams --HUGE edge WVU

Punting -- Pat McAfee is a beast for West Virginia averaging 44.7 yards per boot this year and the wvu punt coverage teams have been wonderful as well. North Carolina punter Terrence Brown is an adequate punter averaging 39.5 per punt this year. UNC punt return coverage is also run of the mill .. Not bad but not great either. UNC lost a big weapon when Brandon Tate when down in regards to their punt return team. He was a spectacular player with the ball in his hands. Down the stretch they have been going to Kendric Jones for punt return duties…. Big downgrade for them. Definite edge in this area for WVU.

FG kicking -Once again we have a huge edge for WVU in a special teams category. Casey Barth for UNC has a long of 42 this year , only attempted one fg of over 50 yards all year and was just 10 of 15 for the season. Bif difference from Pat McAfee who is 16 of 19 for the year with a long of 52. He has made both attempts from beyond 50 this year and is a very reliable weapon with a big leg. He did miss a key fg in overtime at Colorado this year however from just 23 yards, though it was off the upright. Big edge here for wvu. BTW you are also far more likely to get a touchback from a kickoff from mcafee than unc wooten.

Block kicks-edge to UNC. They have blocked 5 this year including several against uconn that changed the complexion of that game. I would never count on a blocked kick against a kicker looking to increase his nfl stock ina bowl game but however much you want to value this , it has to go to UNC. A lot of the time in college football little fault lies with the punter when a kick is blocked as it is usually a missed assignment. If there were odds on who was most likely to have a blocked kick I would make unc about -300.

Strength of schedule/conference/common opponents --slight edge unc
First off , I don’t think there is a huge significant disparity between the overall play in the Big East and the overall play in the ACC. So lets look at the out of conference games and the common opponents. WVU hosted little sister rival marshall at home , villanova at home and auburn at home. Their ooc road games were at ECU and at Colorado. First thing to note is they lost both ooc away games this year. They did crush Auburn much to my dismay in what was one of my more confident bets this year on the tigers… where I was way off the mark. UNC played a more difficult ooc schedule and perhaps most importantly two opponents from the big east. The heels hosted mcneese st , uconn and notre dame at home and also played a road game at Rutgers. So it is safe to say that unc played the tougher ooc schedule. Lets take a look at common opponents in Rutgers and uconn.
Both teams caught Rutgers in the first half of the year before they got it rolling. Here are the box scores

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=12 width=426 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=center width="60%" height=24>Team Stat Comparison
</TD><TD vAlign=center width="20%" height=24>unc
</TD><TD vAlign=center width="20%" height=24>rutgers
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=center width="60%" height=101>
</TD><TD vAlign=center width="20%" height=101>

</TD><TD vAlign=center width="20%" height=101>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=center width="60%" height=24>1st Downs
</TD><TD vAlign=center width="20%" height=24>

18