Week Long Thread

1

165yds

Pretty much a regular
Yes Matt Boland is reffing tonight and 1-14 ats for the home team can't be ignored but he's not really a home or road ref. If you look at his history he's pretty even both ways so this is more of an aberration. If he goes to 2-14 I will stalk him and try to take the home team the next five games because that number will even out. GS is 0-2 this year on the last leg of a road trip 3 or more this year and something like 3-2 ats last year. They wanted last game against Memphis after getting blown out and played like it. Don't see much energy tonight from a jump shooting team who if they don't hit the 3 have trouble on the road. My line was 3 and getting 6 I was thinking c'mon to a Bobcat team whose covered 4 in a row. They are much better than most think and will compete and stay close to .500 all year.

Cats +6

Memphis is a mess. They're at the point they can win or lose to anyone and there's turmoil and questions as to whether they have gotten old over night. This a bad number, I couldn't imagine laying over two possessions with this group. Magic +8.5

Utah +7 Just a gut feel. No reason to take these guys when you don't match up anywhere on the court. I hate revenge but I don't think it can be ignored. If they had lost by 32 a month ago I wouldn't mention it but the game just happened a couple days ago. Utah usually plays Portland well, hopefully history replays itself.

The write ups today were weak but just don't have the time today.

26-23 ats
 
Looking at the Heat vs Indy game tomorrow.

Heat was 4-1 as any kind of dog last year.

Indy 5-0 ats off an ats loss. 7-1 on one day rest winning their last 7. 4-1 ats coming off a road game.

Being down 19 at the half Pacers packed it in and decided to get ready for the Heat. Pacers last year coming off a DD loss 13-5 ats including playoffs and this year 1-0 ats.

There aren't many statement games for these teams in the regular season but you just know Indy wants this game.
 
The trade is going to help Sac tonight. Watch Ray McCallum who will get meaningful minutes for the first time play well. Kings are only dressing 10 tonight as Yag will not play.

Kings +4
 
Cats coming off their biggest win of the year with Indy up next after they lost by 25 seems like a bit of a sandwich spot. Line goes from 6 to 7 against Philly yet goes the other way to a team that has now lost 6 in a row SU, on 4 of 6 on the last leg of a 6 game road trip. Doesn't make sense. Line should have opened at -7 but was a soft 6 and now down a full point says volumes imho. I'm not huge on line movement but more about the open but I don't think it can be ignored tonight. Cats coming off two SU wins are 0-2 ats this year. I win tonight would mean .500 for a team that has not been .500 this late in the year in forever, very tricky spot.

Hate Vucevic not playing, according to NBA.com with him on the floor the Magic get 51.4% of available boards with him on the court, 44.9 on the bench and 40.2 without him. Brutal not having him there but they did show fight down 20 something to make a late run to get back into the game against Memphis and down 6 with 25 seconds left it took a 3 late in the shot clock for them not to cover. Bit unlucky to not get the cover but that's the NBA.

Magic +5

Playing the Clips as a road fav seems shaky at best. This year 4-4 ats and SU. When they lost ats they've lost SU so I'm thinking the same occurs tonight. Team is so over rated at the moment and still trying to find their identity. Any time the Sixers play a fast paced team they tend to lose so that was a great match up but not tonight. Middle of a long road trip I expect them to lose tonight and get spanked at NJ. They've only beat one slow paced team on the road this year and that was a banged up Memphis team. Maybe slow paced isn't the right word, a team that isn't in the top half of pace. My line was 3, game seems like a coin flip on paper, ML on the Celtics should be the play.

Celtics +5.5

28-25 ats
 
Vucevic is playing, I read 3 places he wasn't. Bad job by me. Having a guy who gets a double double changes everything. Is he the only guy in the league who gets a double double under the age of 25?

nbafan they look so lost when the game slows down. If Paul doesn't kick and drive they don't know what to do. Maybe Doc will change that because I still don't know what their offense sets are in the half court. Good luck nbafan.

Every thing I know about capping tells me Utah covers tonight. Having Yag in the line up will mess things up in the short term. Great trade getting rid of him in Toronto, they can finally start to rebuild. Why the Kings wanted him is nuts. Not sure if I can stomach them again tonight as they have killed me this year. Expect Memphis to play well, not buying the revenge stuff. My line was 3, them getting 6 is weird to see, I don't care if OKC wins by 30.
 
Nets for whatever reason play very well against the Clippers. Clippers are 1-12 ats in Brooklyn/NJ and covered 7 of 8 against them. Clip on game 6 of 7 road trip. They are 4-1 ats on 0 days rest but this is a bit different tonight. Nets have been home they should win tonight, if they can't win they should be ashamed. DWill looked good first game back, hopefully his fat ankles will hold up. Nets at some point are going to get hot, this might be it. The next 8 are all winnable. Maybe go Nets SU or take points when they are dogged and roll it over wouldn't be the worst idea the next 8 games.

Nets +1.5

29-26 ats
 
If the Nets can win tonight and it'll probably be a long 2nd half the way the year has gone for them but can really get on a streak with Philly and Washington at home, at Philly and Pacers, Bulls and Bucks at home. Tomorrow is the tricky game. Off a back to back Nets are 2-2 ats and where you really need AK and Terry in these spots. Would be nice if they could have a rare blowout and limit DWill and Lopez's minutes. Nets could have a 3 game winning streak and on the rise where as the Pistons who many thought would make progress, I've been down on this team since day one so I don't know what most were looking at. Lost 3 in a row and could easily lose 7 in a row with Portland, Indy and at Boston after the Nets. Two teams going in different directions. Pistons are far worse than their numbers suggest. On paper they are middle of the road but years end they will be in the basement of teams defensively in every category. They are 7th worst in defending the 3 but if you watch them nobody gives the other team more wide open looks than these guys whether it's in or outside of the arc. The main culprit is Jennings who lets everyone roam free down the middle of the lane causing the bigs to get in foul trouble and puts far too much pressure on them. You won't find one person who watches them consistently who doesn't think they suck. Their roster doesn't work. They better beat the Nets or they'll find themselves at 10-17 and the season will officially be over. I have to believe the Nets find a way to win tomorrow.
 
It's weird seeing a 1-10 road team on a short line but it is justified. I keep waiting for them to turn it around because they have a much better team than the Magic. I had them last game but as soon as they won I wanted to fade them. It's tough for bad teams to win a road game and come back at home and not fall flat on their face. The Magic have some nice pieces but you can't have Oladipo handling the ball as much as he does. He is a good player and a guy you want as a key piece to your team but he's not a one, he does many different things though to help your team but not running them. I keep waiting for Irving to take a strangle hold on these type of games where he is easily the best player on the court and if he's a superstar like he's supposed to than c'mon win this game for your team. It's so tough to take them on the road where they are 2-9 ats. Magic are in a free fall at home of late 1-6 ats and pretty sure Cavs suck on Fridays but and I can't believe I'm going to type this but the wrong team is favored.

Nets and Cavs are the two games I will be looking at.
 
Such a joke with Lopez getting hurt. They're going to get killed inside tonight. Nets can't catch a break this season and are quickly a no play.

I know Philly has by far the worst defense in the league giving up an astounding 109.3 ppg but a team that is obviously tanking is giving that much? My first thought was wow strong line.
 
The more I look at this game the more I'm starting to change my mind.

Cleveland is middle of the pack defensively but on the road they are giving up 103.5 ppg and have given up 103 or more 7 of 11 games, that's not going to get it done vs anyone. Magic are finally healthy. It's like you are hoping they somehow show up tonight and show some guts on the road.
 
Magic -2

Did a 180 on this. More I looked at it, it became clear who I had to bet. Spent quite a bit of time on this game there were some red flags I couldn't get away from with Cleveland.

31-26 ats
 
Such a sucker bet and Brook is worth a couple points off the spread but I have to stay with my convictions. Rolling over my winnings from the Nets yesterday and taking them today. I know it's a bad spot but getting more than two possessions is too much for me to pass up. If it loses it loses but the Nets battle in these type of spots.

Nets +6.5
 
People always like to tell you it's back to back but each spot and team is different. Rockets are 4-1 ats on BB's. They lost on TNT a game most NBA gamblers saw and now face a GS team struggling to cover at home recently 1-5 ats. GS has gotten in the habit of falling behind and making great comebacks but that wears thin very fast. 8 of 10 on the road and off a 3 game set where they barely beat the Mavs in dramatic fashion at home, it's not the first game back that's the problem it's the second. To me GS is in the worst spot of any team in the league tonight. Would love to get 4.
 
Shame on me for switching my pick yesterday. Knew even though everything pointed to the Magic on paper the line stunk to high heaven.

Yeah yeah I know but the Lakers have some nice things going for them tonight and my favorite game of the day.

Bulls are in nearly the exact same spot as Orlando last night. Will be on Toronto and LAL just waiting for a better line. Cleveland is going to go on a huge ATS streak like the Nets. Watch them have a chance to steal it inside 4 minutes.

Rolled the Nets last night and will do so again with ML against Philly. That has blowout written all over it. Nets and DWill were robbed by the refs last night when he drove to the hoop and there was no call. It was an obvious rip on the elbow which would have made it a two point game with 35 seconds. Still Nets showed a ton of fight coming back in the 4th, time to sit Garnett he has nothing left.

32-27 ats
 
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You knew as soon as the Yag trade happened they were going to take a step back because of the time it's going to take to get acclimated so I don't take too much stock out of the past two games. Yag played great and was efficient but the defense continues to be atrocious, 29th last year 28th this year. Nothing has changed in Sacramento except they do have this nasty habit of playing well at home against good teams. This year 4-3 ats as a home dog covering their last 3 and covered 5 in a row at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Very tough spot for the Rockets not because they are in the last game of a 3 in 4 road trip but coming off two very tough and emotional games against Portland and GS. Now they face the crappy Kings it has to almost feel like a breath of fresh air. What makes it difficult is Harden is coming of 40+ minute a night games which he does every night but can they keep this up. With Lin just getting back he has to do nearly everything on handling the ball, even Howard played 42 minutes against Portland. Seems like the kind of game they take a mental and physical break and keep the Kings in this. Kings do have some weapons on offense and we should see a fast open game, can they play even a hint of defense? This year 2-1 ats when playing 3 of 4 but Lin was playing to help out. Rockets always keep either Lin or Harden on the court at all times because they have nobody else they trust to handle which is why having Lin out was so huge. He's just only getting back but will get more minutes as time goes on so expect Harden to get a small break minutes wise.
 
Would be nice if Bucks could somehow make a nice 2nd half comeback. That par would've been nice. Ehh not likely though.
 
As soon as I saw the line I thought c'mon. What am I missing? There is no way the Suns should be a pick or anywhere near that. I thought the line should have been at least -3.5. Maybe I'm wrong but this team continues to be disrespected night in night out. Any stat you look at right now is great so I'll just tell you 16-5-1 ats this year and a pick at home. They don't have nearly the talent GS does but they are not a fluke. They have a bunch of hard workers and quick name me another team in the league that has two gaurds that can defend, score, handle and set up. Bledso and Dragic will keep them over .500 all year and how don't you root for Plumlee who outworks everyone every single night. I don't put too much stock into days rest as some others but having your side at 9-1 ats on one day rest doesn't hurt. Until GS shows some interest in playing defense it's impossible to take them seriously. Give me the hardworking unit that grinds over flash.

Suns Pick

35-27 ats
 
Kings +6.5

At more than two possessions I have to bite even though I hate the play.

Noticed Pelicans struggle against fast teams, teams that plod they have success. I know it's the second game back of a long road trip and a flat spot but that gets nullified because of a 3 day rest in between. Like a big home fav coming off a DD loss. Denver will run them out of the building tonight.

Denver -6

Missed that parlay last night by a bucket, had a couple chances late just missed some shots the last minute. One more try, all 3 including Magic, Detroit ML and Memphis.
 
You score 139 the night before you usually lose the next night. Just how the NBA works, last time that happened Portland lost outright as a -5.5 fav.
 
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