Week 5 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[austinhous]

Diaz and Mack Brown have an interesting history. I chalked up last week's JMU game as a simple lookahead to Diaz.

 

[Frank Costanza]

This is gonna be a massacre.

Agree. Riley's an idiot but SC wins this going away.

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

4. @Utah -8.5 v Arizona (BOL) : This is out of chronological order but I want to get this now while the spread is where it is. This games kicks off at 10:00 PM EST, but I'm gonna upend protocol and put it here. I actually hope Cam Rising doesn't play as Utah's QB play probably won't have much impact on what the final score will be. I find it funny that people are giving Isaac Wilson shit because he's Zach Wilson's brother. Isaac's playing college football. Does anyone remember what Zack was as a college QB? Yeah, not bad. He acquitted himself very well last week despite going into a very rough hostile environment. Now Arizona and their Charmin soft run defense come into Salt lake City to face the Utah run game and Micah Bernard who is averaging almost 5 yards after contact and is near the top of the chart in missed tackles forced. I'm also not a believer in this Arizona offense under Brennan and with Fisch off to Washington. Noah Fifita was great last year, but he and McMillan have made their bones mostly on that opener against New Mexico, and they had a pretty productive effort yardage wise against K State but still only managed 7 points. I just don't think they have their footing under them and I seriously doubt they are ready for this kind of challenge. If they hang with the Utes here I'll be very surprised, and it will change my outlook, especially on Brennan, who I am not convinced is cut out to compete in a spot like this.

I like it. I, too, am not a fan of Brennan- or his "Charmin soft run defense." HAHAHA!! Another good one, Br@ss.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Diaz and Mack Brown have an interesting history. I chalked up last week's JMU game as a simple lookahead to Diaz.

Would be interested to hear the backstory on that

 

[austinhous]

Mack has just owned Diaz. Back in 2013 Mack was Longhorns HC with Diaz as his DC. Week 2 of that season Taysom and them came in and put up 550 rushing yards in one game. Mack Fired Diaz and that was the end of Diaz's career at UT. They've met in 3 subsequent games since, with Diaz HC of Miami, and Mack won all three games (two of which I could confirm as an underdog). Oh, and the post-game handshakes tell an entire story as well - u can see them on twitter. Mack owns him and kinda just always has. Diaz strikes me as a nice guy but Mack strikes me as the kinda guy who would be that type of grudge-holding psycho - aka the guy u would wanna put ur money on in the rivalry game

 

[Br@ssknux]

18 Washington State +7(-116) @Boise State (BOL) : This is another game that I see as a matchup between two similar teams. Both of these defenses are going to have a hard time stopping the offenses. Having said that, I think Wazzou can handle the Boise passing attack if they can just find a way to keep Ashton Jeanty "in the ballpark" so to speak. That remans to be seen, but even if Jeanty runs wild, I think Washington State can match scores with them with John Mateer at QB. His running ability is unique and JC French and even Portland State's QB scrambled for 60+ yards and a TD apiece. Both teams have playoff aspirations, but Washington State has to win out because they don't have a conference title to lean on like Boise will regardless of this outcome. Washington State has already shown a penchant for figuring out ways to win, and with their ability to move the ball, I think they'll be in this one until the end.

Eh, I was too enamored with Mateer and not enamored enough with Jeanty's ability to swashbuckle through that Coug defense. Bad call.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Another add!

19. @Michigan State +24(-118) v Ohio State (BR) : Oho State has looked great, but it's been against nobody. Michigan State meanwhile has played at Maryland and at BC, not heavyweights, but certainly worthy competition. Defensively they've been good. They rank 20th in yards per play, 19th against the run and 2nd in sacks. Offensively, Chiles has been problematic with turnovers, but he can be explosive and I think their offense can catch OSU off guard if they're not 100% invested in this game. MSU comes in with no expectations, and the loss last week probably kept the Buckeyes from standing up and taking notice. I'm not convinced that Will Howard is a top level QB, and MSU doesn't look to be a team that will get pushed around on the ground, despite what looks to be a top level Buckeye rushing attack. I've always been a fan of Smith in all ATS situations, so I'll take a shot that the Spartans give a good effort here.

Should have kept my great, late, off the cuff ideas to myself. Pffffffft.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Last one for an even 20, even though big favorites are doing me no favors today.

20. Oregon -24 (-113) @UCLA (BR): UCLA covered last week, but that seems to be more about an LSU team that fell asleep more than a UCLA team that found it's footing. Everyone gets fired up to play in the Rose Bowl, and Oregon just seems to be a different team as a favorite when they go on the road. They're 8-1 as a road favorite since 2022, and I don't see much Keeping them from running UCLA out of the stadium in this one. They do have a couple pock marks on their record this year, with those being the run defense that still has a shiner from Ashton Jeanty and their 3rd down defense. UCLA isn't capable of doing anything about either of those things, as they can't run and they rank 92nd in 3rd down conversions. Ethan Garbers is one of the worst QBs in the country per PFF, as only General Booty, Parker Awad, Evan Swoboda and other dregs of FBS quarterbacking are below him. They also rank 130th defensively in 3rd down conversions themselves. With the history of Oregon as a road favorite and the sorry state of the Bruins, this makes for a good play. Also, don't forget that former Bruin Dante Moore is the Duck backup QB, so I'm sure he'll invent some sort of grievance to get himself fired up to stick it to the Bruins in garbage time if he gets in there.

Gabriel throws a 100 yard pick six on the last play of the half when Oregon was going to go up 35-3, and it turns into 28-10. Then Oregon barely cares enough to show up in the second half in this type of situation for the first time in 3 years and only wins by 22. I feel violated by this one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Mack has just owned Diaz. Back in 2013 Mack was Longhorns HC with Diaz as his DC. Week 2 of that season Taysom and them came in and put up 550 rushing yards in one game. Mack Fired Diaz and that was the end of Diaz's career at UT. They've met in 3 subsequent games since, with Diaz HC of Miami, and Mack won all three games (two of which I could confirm as an underdog). Oh, and the post-game handshakes tell an entire story as well - u can see them on twitter. Mack owns him and kinda just always has. Diaz strikes me as a nice guy but Mack strikes me as the kinda guy who would be that type of grudge-holding psycho - aka the guy u would wanna put ur money on in the rivalry game

Thanks Austin. I remember Diaz being DC at Texas. I don't think he's a nice guy though. I also remember those Miami/UNC matchups now that you mention it. I think in one of them UNC gained all but 6 yards of the total available for the game. They had 700+ I believe...back when the UNC offense electric with Howell and those receivers.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I like it. I, too, am not a fan of Brennan- or his "Charmin soft run defense." HAHAHA!! Another good one, Br@ss.

Thanks SPRD. No coincidence that you liked the plays on the 7 point road dogs I'm assuming!

 

[Br@ssknux]

A couple observations on Colorado.

1. Their defense is WAY better. I stayed off UCF because I wasn't sure Colorado would be a pushover on D. Glad I did.
2. If you can't pressure the QB, Colorado will carve you up. UCF came into the game ranked 130th in sacks.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9-10-1 after a late collapse. I added the recaps. Lots of tough beats, but that's the way it goes. Feels like I deserved better but we move on to next week.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Mack strikes me as the kinda guy who would be that type of grudge-holding psycho - aka the guy u would wanna put ur money on in the rivalry game

Brown, thin-skinned, petulant and vindictive? You don't say.

 

[twinkie13]

Great recaps!!

Let’s get em next week!!

 

[bones]

3. Northern Illinois +7.5(-115) @NC State (BOL) : Doeren facing his old squad here. Obviously NIU got all sorts of pub and pats on the back after winning in South Bend. What came next was predictable based on how we know things go in college football with 18-22 year olds(or 24, 25 year olds), and also with the almost cosmic incompetence NIU has as a home favorite. An outright loss to Buffalo. If NIU wants to be considered for that group of 5 spot, they can still make a case because they have another shot at a Power 4 team, albeit one that looks lost in NC State. Grayson McCall has been banged up and it's unclear if he's going to play, but I don't know if it matters all that much. NC State ranks poorly in every offensive category, and that's despite their numbers including a metric ton of empty yards in garbage time against a thus far questionable Clemson defense that didn't care one bit that NC State was piling up meaningless yards. NIU's defense has been great this year, and I don't know that we can call NC State's defense any better than Notre Dame's is. NIU is 12th in yards per play against and 2nd on 3rd down. Offensively they aren't explosive but they've were extremely efficient in their last big game. They are covering machines as road dogs under Hammock(15-5 ATS since he got there 6-1 ATS since 2022). They have everything to play for and will be coming in with the goal of winning outright. NC State already has 2 losses and has looked bad in all 4 of their games. Maybe they'll figure things out, but I'll trust a squad with everything to play for coming off an embarrassing performance in a role that they have excelled in as much as anyone in the country.

Too bad the Huskies couldn't score on that last drive. Should have won the game outright. NC State managed a total of 171 yards and somehow scored 24 points. 4 turnovers to 0 with a fumble return for a TD and another leading to a 1 yard TD drive did it. Clearly the right side. It's a travesty the hook was required for an NIU cover.

Yeh, felt sorry for NIU. Watched a lot of this game. I figure NIU coach may get a better job soon...anyone have thoughts/knowledge re this?