NBA 'Super Situation' for the upcoming 2024-2025 Season...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
You know the deal with this... they rarely schedule these anymore but through my initial schedule capping I have located one....

For those wondering, this is the deal...

A team hits the road for a 5+ game road trip with all the other games in the other conference.

Said team then has one day off after the last game before their first home game of the trip.

Immediately after that home game, they once again hit the road on a B2B for a road game.

The thinking here is the players arrive back home and have little time to reacclimate. By the time that b2b road games hits, they are ready to pack things in.

Using the 5-game trip as an example -- you basically turn that home game into another 'stop' on the trip, In essence, this will be a 7-game trip.

Yes, you could use this on a 4-game trip, but for the full 'Super Situation' you need 5+ games.

I started tracking this back the winter before CTG while still at blankets. The next season I believe we won all but one of our bets (Nash-led Suns were a nemesis that year).

What do you bet here? You can bet that home game AND the next. You can simply bet on the second one. My philosophy for years was to go 1x and then 2x in that order. As we are closer to this trip we can examine all the intangibles to lay out a better plan.

We have 6 months till this happens, but mark this in your calendars now!



Team: The Cleveland Cavaliers

The Trip:

Tuesday, March 18th @ LA Clippers
Wednesday, March 19th @ Sacramento
Friday, March 21st @ Phoenix
Sunday, March 23rd @ Utah
Tuesday, March 25fh @ Portland
Thursday, March 27th vs San Antonio
Friday, March 28th @ Detroit

(games we are betting are italicized)


* One more note here -- before this trip starts the Cavs have a road game on the Friday before and then a home game on Sunday -- they will be tired
 
Minnesota has one that isn't the full situation but definitely will be one to watch...

I'll outline the full few weeks here for better context. This is right after the all-star break.

Friday, February 21st @ Houston
Sunday, February 23rd vs Oklahoma City
Monday, February 24th @ Oklahoma City
Thursday, February 27th @ Los Angeles
Friday, February 28th @ Utah
Sunday, March 2nd @ Phoenix
Tuesday, March 4th vs Philadelphia
Wednesday, March 5th @ Charlotte
Friday, March 7th @ Miami


So, the caveats here...

-Not 5 full games in the opposite conference
-They might head home between the OKC road game and the LA Lakers game.

With that being said, this is a really interesting stretch out of the break that one would think provides some opportunities!
 
And here we are, another super situation! This one is a doozy!


Team: The Portland Trailblazers

The Trip:

Monday, February 24th @ Utah
Wednesday, February 26th @ Washington
Friday, February 28th @Brooklyn
Sunday, March 2nd @Cleveland
Monday, March 3rd @Philadelphia
Wednesday, March 5th @Boston
Friday, March 7th @Oklahoma City
Sunday, March 9th vs Detroit
Monday, March 10th @ Golden State


This one has the requisite 5 games in the opposite conference AND bookends with road games in-conference. This is a doozy!
 
I will not lie -- I am ecstatic to find these situations for next winter.

A situational handicapper at heart, the NBA schedule has slowly taken away my enjoyment in finding truly great spots.

There are a handful of other interesting stretches I'll detail more in the coming weeks.

I did notice that most, if not all, of the Utah/Denver b2b's have a day of rest in-between now.

The next part of these 'caps' is to cap the opponents schedules on our spot plays.

More to come...
 
Not a super situation but Wizards were on a 5 game road trip, home game yesterday versus Pistons and game tonight against Knicks.
 
GTribe5 said:
Not a super situation but Wizards were on a 5 game road trip, home game yesterday versus Pistons and game tonight against Knicks.
Click to expand...

Prior to 2019 this would of been a max unit play.

Since the 2019 season teams in this exact spot have covered at about 60% (5-1 ATS last 6).

Also a get-a-way game for the Bricks as they hit a West Coast road trip next game starting in Phoenix...
 
GTribe5 said:
Not a super situation but Wizards were on a 5 game road trip, home game yesterday versus Pistons and game tonight against Knicks.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I had that in my notes as one to follow.

The fact they only went one time zone made that different.

With that being said, they got their arses kicked both games!
 
We're still a month plus away from these but I wanted to get this bumped.

January usually sees some interesting schedule decisions as well. Time to deep dive!
 
B.A.R. said:
Minnesota has one that isn't the full situation but definitely will be one to watch...

I'll outline the full few weeks here for better context. This is right after the all-star break.

Friday, February 21st @ Houston
Sunday, February 23rd vs Oklahoma City
Monday, February 24th @ Oklahoma City
Thursday, February 27th @ Los Angeles
Friday, February 28th @ Utah
Sunday, March 2nd @ Phoenix
Tuesday, March 4th vs Philadelphia
Wednesday, March 5th @ Charlotte
Friday, March 7th @ Miami


So, the caveats here...

-Not 5 full games in the opposite conference
-They might head home between the OKC road game and the LA Lakers game.

With that being said, this is a really interesting stretch out of the break that one would think provides some opportunities!
Click to expand...
Time to start tracking this one
 
B.A.R. said:
And here we are, another super situation! This one is a doozy!


Team: The Portland Trailblazers

The Trip:

Monday, February 24th @ Utah
Wednesday, February 26th @ Washington
Friday, February 28th @Brooklyn
Sunday, March 2nd @Cleveland
Monday, March 3rd @Philadelphia
Wednesday, March 5th @Boston
Friday, March 7th @Oklahoma City
Sunday, March 9th vs Detroit
Monday, March 10th @ Golden State


This one has the requisite 5 games in the opposite conference AND bookends with road games in-conference. This is a doozy!
Click to expand...
We're off and running here...

Check back in 10 days or so to formulate a plan.
 
B.A.R. said:
Minnesota has one that isn't the full situation but definitely will be one to watch...

I'll outline the full few weeks here for better context. This is right after the all-star break.

Friday, February 21st @ Houston
Sunday, February 23rd vs Oklahoma City
Monday, February 24th @ Oklahoma City
Thursday, February 27th @ Los Angeles
Friday, February 28th @ Utah
Sunday, March 2nd @ Phoenix
Tuesday, March 4th vs Philadelphia
Wednesday, March 5th @ Charlotte
Friday, March 7th @ Miami


So, the caveats here...

-Not 5 full games in the opposite conference
-They might head home between the OKC road game and the LA Lakers game.

With that being said, this is a really interesting stretch out of the break that one would think provides some opportunities!
Click to expand...
A few barn burners with OKC earlier in the week ..including the overtime comeback win!

Altitude tomorrow on a b2b .. worth staking live...

That game next week at Charlotte feels very sleepy. I assume they'll have a night out in South Beach as well after that.

Stay tuned here.
 
B.A.R. said:
We're off and running here...

Check back in 10 days or so to formulate a plan.
Click to expand...
Will be riding along here…looking forward to your thoughts this month in these spots.

I know it doesn’t technically fit your parameters but MIN at +2 @ PHO looks like the situation you’re looking for. It’s a brutal stretch of games for the Timberwolves…Love to hear your thoughts on tonight’s spot
 
BenchCoach said:
Will be riding along here…looking forward to your thoughts this month in these spots.

I know it doesn’t technically fit your parameters but MIN at +2 @ PHO looks like the situation you’re looking for. It’s a brutal stretch of games for the Timberwolves…Love to hear your thoughts on tonight’s spot
Click to expand...
Totally understand this spot.

The Suns have been at home for several days now, and this is the 3rd in 4 games at home.

That's the first key.

Minnesota has had a pretty interesting week themselves...

Back to back OKC games -- the 2nd was the huge comeback + OT.

Then Thursday night they were humbled in LA.

Friday, slight altitude loss in Utah in another close game.

Definitely would lean Suns here -- and obviously will start formulating a plan for Tuesday/Wednesday after tonight.
 
B.A.R. said:
Minnesota has one that isn't the full situation but definitely will be one to watch...

I'll outline the full few weeks here for better context. This is right after the all-star break.

Friday, February 21st @ Houston
Sunday, February 23rd vs Oklahoma City
Monday, February 24th @ Oklahoma City
Thursday, February 27th @ Los Angeles
Friday, February 28th @ Utah
Sunday, March 2nd @ Phoenix
Tuesday, March 4th vs Philadelphia
Wednesday, March 5th @ Charlotte
Friday, March 7th @ Miami


So, the caveats here...

-Not 5 full games in the opposite conference
-They might head home between the OKC road game and the LA Lakers game.

With that being said, this is a really interesting stretch out of the break that one would think provides some opportunities!
Click to expand...
The win at Phoenix last night I think gives us an opportunity this week.

That Wednesday game at Charlotte feels awfully sleepy.

Philly will be on a home back to back tomorrow.
 
B.A.R. said:
And here we are, another super situation! This one is a doozy!


Team: The Portland Trailblazers

The Trip:

Monday, February 24th @ Utah
Wednesday, February 26th @ Washington
Friday, February 28th @Brooklyn
Sunday, March 2nd @Cleveland
Monday, March 3rd @Philadelphia
Wednesday, March 5th @Boston
Friday, March 7th @Oklahoma City
Sunday, March 9th vs Detroit
Monday, March 10th @ Golden State


This one has the requisite 5 games in the opposite conference AND bookends with road games in-conference. This is a doozy!
Click to expand...
So, we need to watch this till the weekend.

The Detroit game is interesting --

Yes, that's the last game on the trip for Detroit.

Yes, that's a back to back for Detroit.

BUT, the trip is only 4 games and they receive TWO full days rest after tomorrow night.

Unique.

Warriors are smack dab in the middle of their own 5 game trip. Their first one back is vs Detroit this Saturday.

Monday will be 4 full days back home and the 2nd home game.

Generally this is the spot I want to get after. I think this will be a 2 unit look as of now...
 
B.A.R. said:
So ugly.

Maxey listed out.

PG listed as questionable but c'mon.

Another guy hurt early last night too for the Sixers.

Love to see a tight game tonight and then play Charlotte tomorrow (albeit one unit tops)
Click to expand...
Well, we have a tight one in Minny entering the 4th.

Let's see OT!
 
pb278817 said:
Star player out angle looking good. Wish I’d bet these sometimes ..
Click to expand...
Yeah, I haven't bet those enough this year but absolutely right with Maxey.

Should have just took the +13 or whatever it was even for a half unit.

We had a semi situation+ star player angle.
 
B.A.R. said:
We're off and running here...

Check back in 10 days or so to formulate a plan.
Click to expand...
B.A.R. - is there historical data on these? Seems these situations were more common in year’s past.

Tonight’s play on Charlotte would seemingly be less strong than a play ‘ON’ the Heat this Friday. Great catch on the 9.5, seeing 8s mostly now.

And if I understand it correctly, the strongest game you listed above would be the Warriors minus infinity on Monday, March 10 at home against the Blazers?

Great work spotting these and thank you for sharing.
 
consilience said:
B.A.R. - is there historical data on these? Seems these situations were more common in year’s past.

Tonight’s play on Charlotte would seemingly be less strong than a play ‘ON’ the Heat this Friday. Great catch on the 9.5, seeing 8s mostly now.

And if I understand it correctly, the strongest game you listed above would be the Warriors minus infinity on Monday, March 10 at home against the Blazers?

Great work spotting these and thank you for sharing.
Click to expand...
Yes on the Warriors.

I don't have an exact record on these.

I'd say from 2005-2015 they hit over 70%.

Those plays would be both or just one of the home game and road game. We'd usually go 1 unit home game and then 2 next night.

These are very RARE now. In fact, I don't think we've had a true one in a few years.
 
consilience said:
B.A.R. - is there historical data on these? Seems these situations were more common in year’s past.

Tonight’s play on Charlotte would seemingly be less strong than a play ‘ON’ the Heat this Friday. Great catch on the 9.5, seeing 8s mostly now.

And if I understand it correctly, the strongest game you listed above would be the Warriors minus infinity on Monday, March 10 at home against the Blazers?

Great work spotting these and thank you for sharing.
Click to expand...
So, this particular Minnesota trip doesn't fully fit the situation. I just found this trip to be a bit odd.

Friday will be examined as well.
 
As we said, Minnesota wasn't a full situation but we definitely can look at Miami on Friday as a independent situation play.

I'll be stalking the more traditional one and hopefully be able to snag some profit over the weekend.
 
Anyone have a guess for the Wolves/Heat line tomorrow? I’ll say Heat will be +2.5.


B.A.R. - the Warriors line Monday will be interesting given their resurgence since Jimmy Buckets joined the team. Celtics were -9 to -10.5 last night vs Portland. Will be curious if the oddsmakers adjust Monday for this scheduling situation the Blazers are facing.
 
consilience said:
Anyone have a guess for the Wolves/Heat line tomorrow? I’ll say Heat will be +2.5.


B.A.R. - the Warriors line Monday will be interesting given their resurgence since Jimmy Buckets joined the team. Celtics were -9 to -10.5 last night vs Portland. Will be curious if the oddsmakers adjust Monday for this scheduling situation the Blazers are facing.
Click to expand...
Sorry, missed this earlier but Miami is +4.5.

Yep, Warriors power rankings #s have definitely went up.
 
HUNT said:
So for the dummies like myself, what are the bets?
Click to expand...
Potential fades of Portland on Sunday and Monday.

Miami tomorrow isn't a true situation play but one that could be a nice spot.

The other situation plays are in 3 weeks.
 
Hard fought game by Detroit tonight.

Finish trip tomorrow.

I think play that game by ear and then go with GSW on Monday.
 
So Det today and GSW tomorrow

You had Det vs Port listed above as a super situational play, will you have some units put down tonight?
 
wizardofodd said:
So Det today and GSW tomorrow

You had Det vs Port listed above as a super situational play, will you have some units put down tonight?
Click to expand...
Sorry out of pocket all day...

Yes I ended up with a small play as we usually do on the first end of the back to back.

The reason I wasn't gung ho about it was the Detroit situation was just average.

But, working out so far.
 
Line has stayed steady all day.

More understanding of that due to the DD chalk.

These are my least favorite of these (big favorites).

Back in the day it was the 2006-2008 Phoenix Suns that would be kryptonite during these special schedule spots.
 
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