Week 8 in the FCS

s--k

Goodbye to Romance College Football
Friday, October 18

MatchupTime (ET)TV/Mobile
Brown at Princeton7:00pmESPNU

Saturday, October 19

MatchupTime (ET)TV/Mobile
Saint Francis U. at Wagner12:00pmNEC Front Row
Northwestern State at Nicholls12:00pmESPN+
LIU at Robert Morris12:00pmNEC Front Row
Lehigh at Yale12:00pmESPN+
Holy Cross at Harvard12:00pmESPN+
Sacred Heart at Lafayette12:30pmLSN/NBCSP+
Columbia at Penn1:00pmESPN+
Stetson at Davidson1:00pmESPN+
Drake at Presbyterian1:00pmESPN+
CCSU at Dartmouth1:00pmESPN+
Dayton at Butler1:00pmFloFootball
Georgetown at Colgate1:00pmESPN+
Villanova at Maine1:00pmFloFootball
Stony Brook at Towson1:00pmMNMT/FloFootball
Rhode Island at New Hampshire1:00pmFloFootball
Hampton at North Carolina A&T1:00pmFloFootball
Bryant at Monmouth1:00pmFloFootball
Cornell at Bucknell1:00pmESPN+
Stonehill at Merrimack1:00pmESPN+
The Citadel at VMI1:30pmESPN+
Wofford at Chattanooga1:30pmESPN+
Northern Iowa at North Dakota2:00pmMidco/ESPN+
Shorter at West Georgia2:00pmESPN+
St. Thomas at Valparaiso2:00pmESPN+
Fort Valley State at SC State2:00pmESPN+
Western Carolina at Furman2:00pmESPN+
UAPB at Grambling State3:00pmHBCU GO
Mercer at Samford3:00pmESPN+
Illinois State at Murray State3:00pmESPN+
Bethune-Cookman at MVSU3:00pmSWAC DN
Indiana State at Missouri State3:00pmESPN+/MC22
Tennessee State at Howard3:30pmESPN+
Campbell at William & Mary3:30pmFloFootball
Delaware at Richmond3:30pmFloFootball
Elon at UAlbany3:30pmFloFootball
Florida A&M at Jackson State3:30pmESPNU
Southeast Missouri at Charleston So.4:00pmESPN+
Austin Peay at Utah Tech4:00pmESPN+
Eastern Kentucky at Abilene Christian4:00pmESPN+
Tennessee Tech at Western Illinois4:00pmESPN+
Lindenwood at Gardner-Webb4:00pmESPN+
Montana State at Portland State4:00pmScripps/ESPN+
Idaho State at Northern Arizona4:00pmESPN+
Cal Poly at Idaho4:00pmESPN+
Lamar at A&M-Commerce4:30pmESPN+
Marist at San Diego5:00pmESPN+
McNeese at UIW5:00pmESPN+
Stephen F. Austin at Southeastern La.5:00pmESPN+
South Dakota at Youngstown State6:00pmESPN+
UC Davis at Eastern Washington7:00pmSWX/ESPN+
Alcorn State at Southern7:00pmESPN+
South Dakota State at North Dakota State8:00pmESPN2
Weber State at Sacramento State9:00pmKMAX 31/ESPN+
 
Big Sky


DateAwayHomeTimeLocationLinks
Saturday 10/12/2024
Idaho
Idaho 7
Montana State
Montana State 38
TBA

Bozeman, Mont. (Conf.)
Saturday 10/12/2024
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado 21
Weber State
Weber State 17


Final
Ogden, Utah (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
Northern Arizona
Northern Arizona 20
Montana
Montana 31


Final
Missoula, Mont. (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
Cal Poly
Cal Poly 10
UC Davis
UC Davis 56


Final
Davis, CA (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
Portland State
Portland State 42
Idaho State
Idaho State 38


Final
Pocatello, ID (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
Eastern Washington
Eastern Washington 35
Sacramento State
Sacramento State 28


Final
Sacramento, CA (Conf.) Box Score

Big South / OVC

Three of the four home teams picked up conference wins on Saturday. Lindenwood won its second Association game, while Southeast Missouri remains the lone undefeated team in league play following its home victory over Tennessee Tech. UT Martin won at Western Illinois and Tennessee State downed Eastern Illinois.

Scores
@Lindenwood 29, Charleston Southern 14
@#9/11 Southeast Missouri 34, Tennessee Tech 3
UT Martin 45, @Western Illinois 17
@Tennessee State 41, Eastern Illinois 17



LINDENWOOD 29, CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 14 | BOX SCORE
After opening the game with a stop, the Lindenwood offense got rolling behind Steve Hall, but had to settle for a 34-yard field goal by Logan Siebert to go up 3-0 with 11:21 remaining in the opening quarter. On the ensuing CSU drive, Jaylan Wesley picked off a pass that set the Lions up with good field position. Cortezz Jones eventually found the end zone, putting the Black and Gold up 10-0, halfway through the frame. Charleston Southern's offense settled down using the run game and had 1st and goal at the Lindenwood seven-yard line. The Lions defense stood tall and came up with a big stop as Jonah Rubadue and Donnie Wingate stuffed the quarterback run on fourth down. The Lions would be up 10-0 after one.


#9/11 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 34, TENNESSEE TECH 3 | BOX SCORE
Paxton DeLaurent threw for a career-high 418 yards and four touchdowns and #9 Southeast Missouri (6-1, 3-0) scored 24 unanswered points to blow by Tennessee Tech (2-4, 2-1), 34-3, Saturday afternoon. SEMO, which remained undefeated at home and in Big South-Ohio Valley Conference Association play, beat TTU for the seventh time in eight meetings between the teams. The Redhawks moved into sole possession of first in the conference standings with their fifth-straight victory. DeLaurent had a record-setting day breaking SEMO's all-time career records in passing touchdowns, passing yardage and completions. He has now thrown for 6,563 yards, 50 touchdowns and completed 554 passes as the Redhawks three-year starting quarterback.


UT MARTIN 45, WESTERN ILLINOIS 17 | BOX SCORE
The University of Tennessee at Martin football program scored early and often on the way to the squad's third straight victory after cruising past new Big South-OVC Football Association member Western Illinois with a 45-17 margin. The Skyhawks (4-3, 2-1 Big South-OVC) scored just 63 seconds into the game and never looked back. UT Martin racked up 27 first downs and 541 yards of total offense en route to a dominating performance on the road. UT Martin was especially dangerous on the ground where it racked up 306 rushing yards. Running back Patrick Smith tallied the bulk of the carries with 17 carries for 145 yards and a touchdown – including a 63-yard scamper. Fellow tailback Glover Cook III also had a nice day with seven carries for 69 yards and a touchdown.


TENNESSEE STATE 41, EASTERN ILLINOIS 17 | BOX SCORE
Six different players scored touchdowns as Tennessee State rolled past Eastern Illinois 41-17 on Saturday night at Nissan Stadium. Draylen Ellis led Tennessee State's passing attack with 224 yards through the air, tossing four touchdowns without throwing an interception. Jaden McGill paced the Tigers rushing attack by accumulating 47 yards over the course of the game, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Cj Evans also added 37 yards and one touchdown on the ground, averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
 
CAA

UAlbany 24, Bryant 17
Box Score

Quarterback Myles Burkett passed for 183 yards and two touchdowns and added a team-best 57 yards on the ground as UAlbany (3-3, 1-1 CAA) battled past Bryant (2-4, 0-2 CAA), 24-17.

Burkett hit Seven McGee with a 3-yard TD pass on the opening drive of the second half to put the Great Danes ahead 10-7 and the duo hooked up again on a 5-yard scoring play to make it 17-10 with 10:34 to play. UAlbany tacked on a 1-yard TD run by Jojo Uga with 1:07 remaining after the Great Danes had stopped Bryant on a 4th-down play from its own 6-yard line. Bryant quarterback Jarrett Guest was 23-of-32 passing for 233 yards, including a 36-yard scoring toss to Landon Ruggieri on the first drive of the game and 21-yard TD throw to Drew Montez with 16 seconds left. Cole Nilles made 13 tackles for the Bulldogs.

Delaware 44, Maine 21
Box Score

Zach Marker threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns as Delaware (6-0, 3-0 CAA) used a big second half to pull away from Maine (3-3, 1-2 CAA), 44-21. The Blue Hens’ defense forced four turnovers, including a 34-yard pick six by Ty Davis.

Maine took a 14-13 lead into halftime following a 19-yard TD pass from Carter Peevy to Montigo Moss late in the second quarter and a goal line stop as the half expired. A 40-yard TD run by Jo’Nathan Silver put the Blue Hens ahead 23-14, but the Black Bears answered with a 1-yard TD by Tavion Banks to pull within two with 12 minutes to play. Delaware was able to put the game away as Marker capped a 75-yard drive with a 4-yard TD toss to Jake Thaw followed by Davis’ pick six on the ensuing possession. UD’s Phil Lutz had five catches for 133 yards and had a TD reception for a school-record sixth straight game. Xavier Holmes contributed 13 tackles, 2.0 TFL’s and a sack for the Maine defense, while KT Seay and Mysonne Pollard added interceptions for Delaware.

New Hampshire 17, Elon 10
Box Score

New Hampshire’s defense registered nine sacks and allowed just 231 total yards as the Wildcats (4-2, 2-0 CAA) earned a 17-10 road victory at Elon (1-5, 0-2 CAA). Josiah Silver led the UNH defense with seven tackles, 4.5 TFL’s and 3.5 sacks.

Elon jumped out to a 10-0 first-quarter advantage on a 41-yard Jack Berkowitz field goal and a 39-yard TD run by TJ Thomas. Momentum shifted just before halftime as UNH’s Zeroun Skinner blocked a punt that was recovered at the EU 10-yard line. Logan Tomlinson caught a 10-yard TD pass from Seth Morgan on the next play to pull the Wildcats within 10-7 at the break. Tomlinson put UNH ahead, 14-10, on a 4-yard scoring run midway through the third period and Nick Mazzie tacked on a 38-yard field goal with 14:06 to go. A 39-yard fumble return by Jake Louro gave Elon the ball on the UNH 17-yard line with 9:24 remaining, but UNH’s defense forced a turnover on downs and then shut the Phoenix down the rest of the way. Morgan finished with 119 yards passing. For Elon, Thomas rushed for 78 yards on nine carries. Senquavious Alsobrooks had 10 tackles and 2.0 TFL’s for the Phoenix defense, which held UNH to 151 yards.

Rhode Island 31, Brown 21
Box Score

Rhode Island (5-1, 2-0 CAA) scored 17 unanswered points in the final 17 minutes as the Rams defeated Brown, 31-21, to capture the Governors Cup for the sixth year in a row. URI quarterback Devin Farrell passed for 244 yards and a TD and rushed for 65 yards, including a 5-yard TD run that sealed the victory with 2:49 to go.

URI trailed 21-14 midway through the third quarter, but got a 20-yard field goal from Ty Groff followed by a 45-yard TD run by Shawn Harris, Jr. that put the Rams ahead to stay with 12:22 remaining. Gabe Salomons blocked a game-tying Brown field goal attempt and URI was able to drive 80 yards capped by the Farrell scoring run to secure the win. Marquis Buchanan made nine receptions for 107 yards and a TD. Sean Filaoye led the Rams’ defense with 10 tackles.

Towson 28, Norfolk State 23
Box Score

Towson (3-3, 1-1 CAA) scored two touchdowns in less than five minutes in the fourth quarter to battle past Norfolk State, 28-23.

Down 16-14, Tigers’ quarterback Sean Brown connected with Jaceon Doss on a scoring strike to give Towson the lead and then found tight end Carter Runyon in the end zone to make it 28-16. Towson built a 14-10 halftime advantage on a 23-yard scoring run by Devin Matthews and a 3-yard TD catch by John Dunmore.

Ivy League

Dartmouth and Harvard each earned road Ivy League football wins this weekend. Columbia and Penn wrapped up non-league play with wins over in-state foes.

Dartmouth pulled off largest comeback in the FCS this season, erasing a 23-point deficit to beat Yale in a battle that featured two reigning Ivy champions. The Big Green, which improved to 4-0, is one four remaining unbeaten teams in the FCS.

FRIDAY, OCT. 11
HARVARD 38, CORNELL 20

6 p.m. // Ithaca, N.Y. // Schoellkopf Field
  • Harvard (3-1, 1-1) got in the win column in league play, topping Cornell (1-3, 1-1) 38-20.
  • Crimson quarterback Jaden Craig threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns, completing 20 of his 27 pass attempts. Receiver Cooper Barkate had seven catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end Seamus Gilmartin had two touchdown receptions. Crimson running back Xaviah Bascon had 99 rushing yards.
  • Cornell quarterback Jameson Wang accounted for 220 yards of total offense with 153 through the air and 67 on the ground.
SATURDAY, OCT. 12
DARTMOUTH 44, YALE 43 (OT)

12 p.m. // New Haven, Conn. // Yale Bowl
  • Dartmouth (4-0, 2-0) scored three touchdowns in the final seven and a half minutes to force overtime and eventually beat Yale (2-2, 0-2) 44-43.
  • Big Green quarterback Grayson Saunier accounted for five total touchdowns with three passing and two on the ground. He had 360 yards of total offense on the afternoon (276 passing, 84 rushing). Receiver Paxton Scott hauled in six catches for 100 yards and touchdown. Linebacker Micah Green led Dartmouth with 11 tackles.
  • Yale quarterback Grant Jordan threw for 412 yards and five touchdowns on 32-for-47 passing. His top target was David Pantelis, who had three touchdown receptions as part of an eight-catch, 117-yard performance.
COLUMBIA 24, WAGNER 6
12 p.m. // Staten Island, N.Y. // Hameline Field
  • Columbia (3-1) defeated Wagner (3-4) by a score of 24-6 in a battle of the boroughs.
  • Led by running back Joey Giorgi’s 111 yards, the Lions rushed of 228 as a team. Malcolm Terry II had 77 yards on the ground on 12 carries.
  • Defensive back Carter McFadden had two interceptions, marking the second consecutive game that a Lion recorded two picks. Hayden McDonald had two last Saturday against Princeton. Linebacker Jack Smiechowski led the team with seven tackles, including three for a loss.
PENN 31, BUCKNELL 21
1 p.m. // Philadelphia, Pa. // Franklin Field
  • Penn (2-2) improved to 2-0 at Franklin Field this season with a 31-21 win over in-state foe Bucknell (3-3).
  • Quakers running back Malachi Hosley continued his impressive campaign with 146 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. The reigning Ivy League Rookie of the Year entered the matchup ranked fifth in the FCS in rushing yards per game averaging 129.7. Quarterback Aidan Sayin was 15-for-20 through the air for 190 yards and touchdown.
  • Linebacker John Lista had a game-high 11 tackles, including 3.5 tackles for loss. He had a sack and two quarterback hurries.
#19 RHODE ISLAND 31, BROWN 21
1 p.m. // Kingston, R.I. // Meade Stadium
  • No. 19 Rhode Island (5-1) used two fourth quarter touchdowns to top Brown (2-2) in the Governor’s Cup 31-21.
  • Two-time reigning Ivy League Rookie of the Week Matt Childs led the Bears in rushing and receiving. He rushed for 48 yards on 12 carries and had three receptions for 52 yards.
  • Defensive back Tim Malo posted a team-high 10 tackles and recorded his second interception of the season.
#7 MERCER 34, PRINCETON 7
3:30 p.m. // Macon, Ga. // Five Star Stadium
  • Princeton (1-3) fell on the road to No. 7 Mercer (6-0) 34-7.
  • Tigers running back Ethan Clare rushed for 117 yards and touchdown on 21 attempts.
  • Linebacker Chase Christopher had a team-high 11 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss.
MEAC

Howard 21 def. Sacred Heart 14 (Independent)

WASHINGTON, DC -
Redshirt sophomore Ja'Shawn Scroggins (Las Vegas) scored the go-ahead touchdown with 6:04 remaining in the fourth quarter but it was the defense that played perhaps its best game of the season as the unit shutout Sacred Heart (SHU) in the second half en route to a 21-14 non-conference win at Greene Stadium.

The Bison (3-3), who were coming off a bye week, had to scrap and fight their way to extend their home win streak to nine.

RECAP | BOX SCORE


N.C. Central 68 def. Virginia-Lynchburg 0 (NCCAA)

DURHAM, NC -
The North Carolina Central University football team scored 33 points in the opening quarter on its way to a 68-0 win over Virginia-Lynchburg in the Eagles' final non-conference game of the season at O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium on Saturday.

The game was shortened in the second half.

RECAP | BOX SCORE


Towson 28 (CAA) def. Norfolk State 23

NORFOLK, Va. -
Norfolk State safety Jayden Smith and linebacker AJ Richardson posted career performances on Saturday afternoon, as the Spartans fell 28-23 to visiting Towson at William "Dick" Price Stadium.

Richardson recorded 18 tackles with eight solo stops, 4.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, and one interception. Smith logged the first two interceptions of his collegiate career, one in the second quarter and one in the third.

Making the first start of his career, true freshman quarterback Vinson Berry completed 14-of-31 passes for 196 yards and one touchdown. Running back Kevon King tallied 102 yards and two touchdowns on the ground on 14 carries.

RECAP | BOX SCORE


Merrimack College 32 (Independent) def. Morgan State 24

BALTIMORE, Md. -
The Morgan State Bears looked to gain some big-time momentum before Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) competition begins in two weeks at North Carolina Central. However, the Bears couldn't overcome several costly mistakes in a tough 32-24 loss to the Merrimack Warriors this evening at Hughes Stadium.

Myles Miree registered 42 yards with two touchdowns on 18 carries while J.J. Davis led the Bears with 71 yards on 14 carries and one TD. Quarterback Duce Taylor collected 186 yards on 24-of-31 pass attempts.

RECAP | BOX SCORE


Robert Morris 23 (NEC) def. Delaware State 0

MOON TOWNSHIP, Pa. -
Delaware State fell 23-0 to Robert Morris on the road Saturday afternoon. The Colonials improved to 3-3 on the season while the Hornets dropped to 1-6.

Jaden Sutton led all Hornets rushers with 69 yards in the contest, picking up 4.6 yards per carry. Jayden Jenkins also added 11 yards on the ground.

The most prolific target for Delaware State quarterbacks was Kyree Benton, who caught six passes for 77 yards.

RECAP | BOX SCORE


MVFC

DateAwayHomeResultLocationLinks
Saturday 10/12/2024
Missouri State
Missouri State 41
Illinois State
Illinois State 7

Final
Normal, Ill. (Conf.)Box Score Recap
Saturday 10/12/2024
Murray State
Murray State 27
Indiana State
Indiana State 31

Final
Terre Haute, IN (Conf.)Box Score Recap
Saturday 10/12/2024
North Dakota State
North Dakota State 24
Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois 3

Final
Carbondale, Ill. (Conf.)Box Score Recap
Saturday 10/12/2024
Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa 17
South Dakota
South Dakota 42

Final
Vermillion, S.D. (Conf.)Box Score Recap
Saturday 10/12/2024
Youngstown State
Youngstown State 13
South Dakota State
South Dakota State 63

Final
Brookings, SD (Conf.)Box Score Recap


NEC

Click HERE for Results & Statistics

DUQUESNE 38, SAINT FRANCIS U 7
Mounting a pick six, a pair of fourth-down stops and five tackles-for-loss — including two sacks — in the first half, Duquesne built a 21-0 lead at the break and never looked back against Keystone State rival Saint Francis U. With the 38-7 win, the Dukes improved to 2-0 in NEC play for the fifth time in the past six seasons.

LIU 31, STONEHILL 7
LIU got it done on both ends of the gridiron on Saturday as the Sharks earned their first win of 2024 by way of a 31-7 decision over Stonehill in Brookville. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Ethan Greenwood paced a Sharks’ running game that racked up a season-high 353 yards with a career- and game-best 184 rushing yards and a touchdown.

CENTRAL CONNECTICUT 38, MERCYHURST 20
Two players ran for 100-plus yards while junior Brady Olson threw for three touchdowns to spearhead a Central Connecticut offense that put up a season-best 38 points against Mercyhurst on Saturday. Junior Elijah Howard racked up season-high 169 rushing yards and graduate student Jadon Turner added a season-best 114 for the Blue Devils, who outran the Lakers by a 301-17 margin in the 18-point home win.

ROBERT MORRIS 23, Delaware State 0
Robert Morris’ defense clamped down to keep Delaware State off the scoreboard for the entire 60-minute duration of the game on Saturday. Redshirt senior Anthony Chiccitt had an efficient outing for the Colonials, going 25-of-31 for 224 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions in the 23-0 shutout.

Columbia 24, WAGNER 6
Wagner pitched a shutout in the second half but dropped its penultimate non-conference game of the season on Saturday to visiting Columbia. The Seahawks held a 207-76 advantage in receiving yards, but the Lions did most of their damage on the ground in the 24-6 win with 228 rushing yards and a pair of rushing scores.
 
Patriot

GEORGETOWN HOYAS (4-2, 1-0 PL) 17, AT LAFAYETTE LEOPARDS (3-3, 1-1 PL) 0

Fisher Stadium/Easton, Pa. 12:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
EASTON, Pa. – Sophomore safety Zeraun Daniel had two of Georgetown's four interceptions to lead the Hoyas to a 17-0 victory over Lafayette on Saturday.
*Sophomore defensive lineman Cooper Blomstrom posted four tackles, two sacks and an interception. Graduate student linebacker David Ealey III added four tackles and a pick to lead a GU defense.
*The Hoyas rushed for 188 yards, limiting the Leopards to 69 yards on the ground, with sophomore running back Bryce Cox leading the way with 74 yards on 19 carries.
*Freshman running back Savion Hart carried 12 times for 54 yards and a touchdown in his collegiate debut. Sophomore running back Udechukwu Enyerlbe added 39 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries.
*Junior quarterback Danny Lauter completed 12-of-25 passes for 100 yards and an interception, while junior wide receiver Jimmy Kibble caught three passes for 42 yards.
*Lafayette junior wide receiver Elijah Steward finished with four receptions for 79 yards to lead the Leopards’ offense.
*Junior running back Jamar Curtis rushed for a team-high 53 yards on 14 carries.
*Senior safety Saiku White posted a game-high 10 tackles, and senior linebacker Preston Forney added eight tackles and 1.0 TFL.
*Senior linebacker Reggie Thomas recorded five tackles and 2.5 TFLs, while senior defensive back Neriyan Brown finished with seven tackles and an interception for the Leopards.
RECAPS: GEORGETOWN | LAFAYETTE

AT HOLY CROSS CRUSADERS (3-4, 2-0 PL) 19, FORDHAM RAMS (0-7, 0-2 PL) 16
Fitton Field/Worcester, Mass. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
WORCESTER, Mass. – Senior quarterback Joe Pesansky’s three-yard touchdown pass to senior tight end Jacob Petersen with 6:14 remaining in the game put Holy Cross in front for the first time in their 19-16 victory over Fordham.
*Pesansky’s short pass to Petersen capped a 12-play, 75-yard drive that took more than six minutes off the clock. Pesansky completed 14-of-33 passes for 150 yards, two touchdowns, both to Petersen, and one interception.
*Crusaders’ sophomore running back Jayden Clerveaux rushed for a career-high 159 yards on 30 carries, and junior wide receiver Max Mosey caught three passes for 50 yards.
*Holy Cross senior linebacker Frankie Monte posted 16 tackles, one short of his career high, 1.5 TFLs, one sack and one pass breakup. Sophomore linebacker Drew Spinogatti recorded five tackles, 1.5 TFLs and a forced fumble.
*Sophomore placekicker Daniel Porto connected on both of his field-goal attempts, hitting from 49 and 46 yards
*Fordham senior running back Julius Loughridge finished with 52 yards and a one-yard third-quarter touchdown run on 18 carries.
*Junior quarterback Jack Capaldi threw for 199 yards, and graduate student wide receiver Mekai Felton caught two passes for 53 yards.
*Freshman placekicker Bennett Henderson was 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts, connecting from 43, 53 and 37 yards. He also made his only PAT attempt.
*Rams’ senior linebacker James Conway recorded a game-high 17 tackles and 1.0 TFL, while graduate student linebacker Jackson Barletta added 11 tackles.
*Senior defensive lineman Matt Jaworski added six tackles and 2.0 TFLs, and freshman defensive back Boogie Owens had four tackles and his first collegiate interception.
RECAPS: FORDHAM | HOLY CROSS

AT PENN QUAKERS (2-2, 0-1 IVY) 31, BUCKNELL BISON (3-3, 1-0 PL) 21
Franklin Field/Philadelphia, Pa. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
PHILADELPHIA – Senior quarterback Ralph Rucker IV completed his first 13 passes of the game to help Bucknell hang with Penn through the first half, but the Quakers scored 21 points in the third quarter as the Bison fell 31-21 at Franklin Field.
*Rucker completed 26-of-34 passes for 241 yards and an 11-yard touchdown pass to junior wide receiver Nate Anderson in the third quarter. Rucker also rushed for 48 yards on nine carries.
*Bucknell freshman running back Tariq Thomas carried 21 times for 57 yards and two touchdowns, including a nine-yard score in the first quarter and a four-yard touchdown run in the fourth.
*Junior wide receiver Josh Gary finished with a career-high 13 receptions for 137 yards, while classmate Eric Weatherly added seven receptions for 61 yards.
*Senior safety John Schlendorf led the Bison with eight tackles and one sack. Sophomore linebacker Nick Hoying also posted eight tackles.
*Senior safety Mason Taylor recorded his first collegiate interception and junior cornerback Aaron Davis added four tackles and one sack.
RECAPS: BUCKNELL

Week Seven Byes: Colgate and Lehigh

Pioneer

ST. LOUIS, Mo. – Drake won its 14th straight Pioneer Football League outing and improved to 3-0 in league play while handing Butler its first loss of 2024 to highlight Saturday’s action in the PFL. Dayton improved to 2-0 in the PFL by outlasting Davidson at home, while St. Thomas joined them at 2-0 by edging past Marist on the road. Morehead State used a solid defensive effort to down Presbyterian at home. A scheduled Saturday outing between Valparaiso and Stetson in DeLand, Florida, was postponed due to Hurricane Milton, which passed through the Florida peninsula earlier in the week.

Saturday, Oct. 12

Dayton 16, Davidson 14
St. Thomas 39, Marist 32
Drake 27, Butler 17
Morehead State 14, Presbyterian 7
Valparaiso at Stetson, postponed

PFL Recaps


Dayton 16, Davidson 14

DAYTON, Ohio – Mason Hackett rushed for 218 yards and two touchdowns and Gideon Lampron blocked two field goals at Dayton downed Davidson, 16-14, on Saturday at Welcome Stadium. Lampron’s two blocks were part of a miserable day for Davidson’s kicking game, which missed all four field goal attempts, including the potential 51-yard game-winner with 10 seconds remaining. Dayton raced out to a 13-0 lead as Drew VanVleet found Donovan Weatherly and Jake Coleman for touchdowns, but the Flyers only connected on one of two PAT kicks. Davidson’s Mason Sheron ran for touchdowns of 39 and 44 yards, the latter giving the Wildcats a 14-13 lead with 7:45 remaining in the third. Dayton’s Danny Baker put the Flyers ahead for good on a 25-yard field goal with 10:03 left. Davidson got within field goal range on its final two drives, but Lampron blocked a 46-yard field goal, and the 51-yarder fell short. VanVleet completed 13-of-26 passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns for Dayton. Sheron ran for 152 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries for Davidson.

St. Thomas 39, Marist 32

POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. – Tak Tateoka was responsible for four touchdowns, leading St. Thomas past Marist, 39-32 on Saturday at Tenney Stadium. Tateoka got the Tommies out to a 15-0 lead in the first quarter with a three-yard passing touchdown and a one-yard rushing touchdown after Nick Hand intercepted a pass and returned it to the one-yard line. Marist roared back with Sonny Mannino throwing three touchdowns for 18 unanswered points to start the second quarter, but the Red Foxes kicking game had its troubles, missing each of the three PATs. St. Thomas tied the game on Ben Holland’s 45-yard field goal as time expired at halftime. Tateoka gave the Tommies the lead for good in the second half, tossing a 21-yard touchdown in the third quarter before scoring on a two-yard run to start the fourth frame. Mannino would not be deterred and tacked on his fourth and fifth touchdown tosses in the fourth, but a Gabriel Abel 15-yard run between those touchdowns was enough to secure the St. Thomas win. Tateoka completed 16-of-21 passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns while adding two touchdown runs on 12 carries for 13 yards. Mannino completed 25-of-46 passes for 211 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 19 yards on seven carries.

Drake 27, Butler 17

DES MOINES, Iowa – Drake used three second-half touchdowns to hand Butler its first loss of the season, winning a 27-17 decision in the Battle of the Bulldogs on Saturday at Drake Stadium. A quiet first half saw Butler score the half’s only touchdown on Reagan Andrew’s four-yard run, giving the visitors a 6-3 lead. Drake tied the game midway through the third on Shane Dunning’s 44-yard field goal and took the lead four minutes later when Luke Bailey found Taj Hughes for a 38-yard touchdown. Drake extended the lead in the fourth quarter with a bit of help from its defense. Blake Ellingson pushed the lead to 20-6 with a one-yard run. Mekhi Toms’ interception on the ensuing Butler drive gave Drake the ball at the Butler 32-yard line. Two plays later, Davion Cherwin broke through for a 32-yard touchdown run, securing the win. Bailey completed 16-of-25 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. Andrew led Butler with 174 yards on 22-of-32 passing and another 81 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.

Morehead State 14, Presbyterian 7

MOREHEAD, Ky. – Morehead State used two touchdown runs and five Presbyterian turnovers to claim a 14-7 victory on Saturday at Jayne Stadium. Nate Garnett provided the first half’s only points courtesy of his 10-yard touchdown run with 1:53 left in the half. Neither team scored again until Isaac Stopke broke through with a five-yard touchdown run at the 13:21 mark of the fourth quarter. Presbyterian responded on its ensuing drive and needed only six plays, including Collin Hurst’s 23-yard touchdown pass to Jayden Pressey at 11:05. But the Blue Hose would get no closer thanks to Morehead State’s defense, which secured the win with interceptions on the final two Presbyterian drives, secure the win. Carter Cravens led the Eagles offense with 212 yards on 14-of-24 passing. Hurst completed 16-of-29 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown.

SoCon

Wofford wins in faceoff with VMI at Gibbs Stadium

Wofford claimed victory against VMI on Saturday afternoon, winning by a final score of 31-16.

Rickie Shaw had two catches for 103 yards and one touchdown to lead Wofford. J.T. Smith and Ryan Ingram led the Terriers' ground attack as the team as a whole recorded 161 yards rushing, including six rushing first downs and two rushing touchdowns.

Hunter Rice had a big day for VMI, accumulating 73 yards on the ground, along with catching a pair of passes.


Whatley leads Chattanooga to road victory over Furman

Chattanooga collected a resounding victory over Furman on Saturday afternoon, taking the win by a final score of 41-10.

Wide receiver Javin Whatley dominated on the outside, collecting 10 receptions for 168 yards to lead Chattanooga. The Mocs collected 443 total offensive yards on the day to Furman's 233.

Myion Hicks scored Furman's lone touchdown on the ground in the fourth quarter. Turnovers hurt Furman all game as the Paladins threw four interceptions and lost one fumble.


Williams powers Western Carolina to victory over The Citadel

Western Carolina outbattled The Citadel on Saturday afternoon by a final score of 30-16.

Jalynn Williams rushed for three touchdowns, while Zion Booker finished with six receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown to lead the offense for Western Carolina.

Quarterback Johnathan Bennett led The Citadel, contributing 155 yards through the air and 155 on the ground. Cooper Wallace contributed to the Bulldogs' offense as well, scoring one touchdown on the ground.


Mercer victorious, takes down Princeton

Mercer outbattled Princeton on Saturday afternoon by a final score of 34-7.

Tailback Dwayne McGee led the way for Mercer, accumulating 115 yards on 19 rushing attempts. The Bears' defense also caused havoc on the Princeton offense, forcing three fumbles on the afternoon.


ETSU cools off Samford

ETSU snuck past Samford on Saturday afternoon by a final score of 31-28.

AJ Johnson was electric, reeling in seven balls for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns to lead the way for ETSU.

Samford was led by quarterback Quincy Crittendon. He completed 27-of-36 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns.

VMI.svg
VMI
Wofford.svg
WoffordVMI 16
,
WOF 31
Spartanburg, SCBox Score
Chattanooga.svg
Chattanooga
Furman.svg
FurmanCHAT 41
,
FUR 10
Greenville, SCBox Score
The_Citadel.svg
The Citadel
Western_Carolina.svg
Western CarolinaCIT 16
,
WCU 30
Cullowhee, NCBox Score
Princeton_png.png
Princeton
Mercer.svg
MercerPRIN 7
,
MER 34
Macon, GABox Score
Samford.svg
Samford
ETSU.svg
ETSUSAM 28
,
ETSU 31
Johnson City, TNBox Score

 
SWAC

SWAC Football Final Scores Week Six


Texas Southern 28, Virginia Lynchburg 10

Florida A&M 28, Alabama State 13

Jackson State 45, Alabama A&M 38

Alcorn State 38, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 28

Nicholls State 51, Southern 7

Incarnate Word 56, Prairie View A&M 28

Southland

AwayHomeResultLocationLinks
Saturday 10/12/2024
Texas A&M-Commerce
Texas A&M-Commerce 42

Northwestern State
Northwestern State 21

Final
Natchitoches, La. (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
Southeastern
Southeastern 37

HCU
HCU 7

Final
Houston, TX (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
SFA
SFA 27

Lamar
Lamar 20

Final
Beaumont, TX (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
Nicholls
Nicholls 10

UIW
UIW 55

Final
San Antonio, TX (Conf.) Box Score


UAC

AwayHomeResultLocationLinks
Saturday 10/12/2024
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Kentucky 21

Southern Utah
Southern Utah 42

Final
Cedar City, Utah (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
West Georgia
West Georgia 33

Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas 34

Final
Conway, Ark. (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
Abilene Christian
Abilene Christian 34

North Alabama
North Alabama 47

Final
Florence, Ala. (Conf.) Box Score
Saturday 10/12/2024
Utah Tech
Utah Tech 0

Tarleton State
Tarleton State 42

Final
Stephenville, Texas (Conf.) Box Score
 

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Normal week on my end for a change. Still wrapping up Saturday then will be turning attention to this week. I do know I won't be watching the Ivy game Friday night which bums me out.

Princeton has been so bad this year. Even the win vs Howard was very very unimpressive in terms of their offensive production and lack of efficiency how it ultimately went. Their O is a mess, their D below average if I'm being nice. They are getting really really bad QB play for the first time in years and they aren't used to this and haven't figured out what they want to or need to be on offense. Brown disappointed me last week blowing the cover with some bad play in the 4Q. Kind of just a Brown team they were last year really, not good overall, play well in spots, not bad, just an average kind of Ivy team - which for Brown in recent history saying they are kind of average Ivy team is a compliment for them because typically they had been bottom feeders. This Brown team was good enough to beat a better Prinecton team in OT last year (+146 ttl yards). Sagarin shows Princeton -1.5 and Massey Princeton -5.5. It does feel like a kitchen sink must win for Princeton at home, so I don;t like that feeling going against Tigers unless the line is like the +5.5 with Brown. There has just been absolutely nothing to like about this Princeton team - they've been outgained by an avg of 171 ypg vs Lehigh, Columbia and Mercer and they only outgained Howard by 49. I do trust the Brown O who was avg 413 ypg their first 3 (incl 406 on Harvard) before URI held them to just 298 last week. I likely take something over a FG with Brown. Situationally, the case for Princeton is this is a must win, at home, primetime TV, circle the wagons, 'we're not losing to Brown 2 years in a row' mentality. But play on the field, that points to Brown I think, definitely need some insurance pts with them as a dog still.
 
I don't always look at these, but do sometimes - the reddit fcs forum lines. It is always fun looking at odds no matter what I think. The track their lines vs 'real' lines and talk about that in the second link below. I put 'real' in quotes because I have no idea what book they are comparing to or when which obviously matters because of movement.



I could spend time on the reddit forum, but I simply do not have time. I barely have time to do things how I want to do them here for myself let alone doing something different somewhere else - actually I almost always run out of time. I hear the reddit lines used on some FCS podcasts.

Then I really don't like trying to copy Massey or Sagarin because the formatting doesn't look right when pasted here. I'm sure everyone knows where to get their ratings and such, but here are these as I'll be going down these lists tonight and comparing numbers to start formulating some opinions on games.


Sagarin:

 
I’ve decided I’m not going to play the Brown – Princeton game. #1 I won’t be able to watch it and that is part of it for me, unless I really like it, if I can’t experience it I don’t care that much. #2, kind of a tough game like I said. Brown better product on the field, significantly better QB, Princeton going to really need and want this bad – so there is a conflict in my vision for how it plays out.

12 / 12:30 games

St Francis at Wagner – Would seem to be a lower scoring game. St Francis has been Under every game even though several have been very close to the number. St Francis scored just 7 on Duquesne, 28 on DSU…BUT… they only had 6 through 3 quarters (21 pts in about 6min span to close), scored 20 on CCSU…BUT… 2 of those were on D/ST and they only managed 10 week 1 vs Dayton. Did score 23 on Kent but were shutout by Emich. Avg SFU total 49.3. Wagner has gone Under in 4 of 5 lined games (avg total in those 50.1). Wagner has shut 3 of it’s lat 4 FCS opponents in the 2H (Columbia, Stonehill, Delaware State) and Lehigh only scored 7 and Robert Morris 14 after halftime. Wagner scoring D is allowing a TD less per game on avg compared to ‘23. SFU allowed 38 last week to Duquesne, but 14 of those from the Dukes D, so SFU D only allowed 24 to a pretty good NEC O. DSU only got them for 17, CCSU got to 27 (including 7 from their D), Kent 17 and Dayton 18 (one TD was a short field after fumble). This total is unlikely to be close to as high as their averages in other games, but if it is! It won't be. Massey has 44.5 and oddly they have SFU as a 6.5 pt road fav which seems off. This year atleast. SFU is not good, Wagner is not good. Don’t know why SFU would be road fav…I said the same thing 2 weeks ago with the Delaware St game. SFU-10 there. Market immediately pounced and that line got bet down to under 3 by kickoff! Strange game as we know that one was. I will have to act the same if SFU is posted as a 6pt fav, probably any kind of fav. SFU has lost outright 2 of 3 as a fav this year (should’ve been 3), 1-2 ATS fav. Wagner has 2 upset wins as dogs, 2-3 ATS – two of the three losses were close to the number (+6 lost by 7 to RM – RM better than SFU). SFU started slow last year, but were a better team 2023 compared to this year. They beat a weak ’23 Wagner team 31-7 as 11 pt home fav. Wagner a little better, SFU a little worse this year. Right now Wagner slightly better O, SFU slightly better D. Both teams good at punting! Should see a competitive low scoring game here. Wagner has a bright spot at WR in Bonelli if Cady can get him the ball enough. I’ll say Wagner wins, will take if plus pts.

Northwestern State at Nicholls – I’ve only bet one NW State game all year. It won because all the games going against them win, except the SEMO game. My fault that I haven’t been on the bandwagon; keep on rocking it to those who are riding. I said last week, and I see it again this week in the box score, there are signs of life in NW St the last couple weeks - not endorsing in any way. Nicholls had two super easy wins and then UIW rocked them 55-10 (was misleading as it was TO and punt return fueled more than Nicholls D being that bad). Nicholls should blow them out here, but I don’t know, I just pass on Demon games.

Long Island at Robert Morris – This should be good game. LIU finally got a win, they had been knocking on the door vs better teams when they were dogged and just couldn’t put it together. I don’t know if Stazani is hurt, but Greenwood got most of the action vs Duquesne two weeks ago and he was the only QB last week vs Stonehill. He runs, was just 3-of-12 57y passing last week! I kind of liked their O with Stazani. They went very run heavy last week 60 for 353 (5.9) that is double to triple carries for their normal gameplan. LIU TOP was 41:19. It was vs Stonehill who is very poor. SH started a new QB and had just 135 ttl yards (3.8)! Duquesne went for 6.6 ypp and Nova 5.4 and URI 6.0 – those are all pretty good Os for an NEC D. Robert Morris has some potential on O with their QB, top RB and WR, a weaker version of Duquesne is how I compare them. EKU was too much for them, but their last 3 vs NEC or other similar teams they have done well. A lot of yards last week vs DSU (399 -6.1) and not a lot of pts (23) which I guess could be concerning. They were SOD at D36 and D12 while kicking FG from the 20…vs a team like DSU you would think they should be keeping those drives alive. RM’s only Over this year was vs Mercyhurst because their O busted the total themselves. LIU 5 of 7 to the Under. I generally have a good opinion of both these teams. Not as much with Greenwood at QB for LIU though. I’ll let the line determine where I go here. Sagarin actually has LIU -2.5. Reddit RM-.5, Massey RM-6. If it is something like RM on a small number 3 or less I may just ML RM to win. If it is like a TD or more then I could go LIU but I will want to figure out what they are doing at QB if Stazani is hurt or just going a different direction and make sure I’m ok with that. I’m not ok with 3 of 12 passing like Greenwood did last week. Would rather just have RM to win it.

Lehigh at Yale – Lehigh has been one of my favorite teams this year. Shame they blew the game vs Bucknell. Game was tied 21-21 late and Bucknell got a 79y pick-six to put them up. Lehigh tied, but then they fumbled in OT for Bucknell to win it. Bucknell had all kind of TO and ST fueled pts in that one (Lehigh 500-270 6.5-4.7 yardage edge). Rare back-to-back bye for Lehigh. Not quite sure how 2 weeks off effects them. Pretty much better in every facet from last year’s team. They are no longer a push-over. This is year #2 for the HC Cahill who was on the Yale staff as OC/QB coach 2014-22. So interesting that he’s returning with his new team to face his old team. Certainly has enough time to prep! How does Yale respond to blowing a 23 pt lead in the OT loss vs Dartmouth? And how they lost. Not only did they blow the big lead, but then in bottom of OT1, at home, they called timeout after the kicker was on the field for xpt and brought the O out to go for 2 and pass fell incomplete. That’s how they lost. They are taught to turn the page, but has to be tough. It was their best game offensively passing atleast for sure and I always feel that Yale is going to have potential on O because historically they figure it out. It's why so many offensive coaches get picked from Yale for other jobs. Last week might be evidence that they have figured it out once again (532 yards 6.1 – avg 345 their first 3). The Yale D has been amazingly bad however. CCSU didn’t get the pts out of it, but they had 458y and Cornell put up 475. HC 426 in their opener – allowing 6.5 ypp on average in those 3 and then last week allowed 5.6 on 445 yards to a second and third string QB from Dartmouth. Two of the three PR lines I’m looking at show Yale as 9/9.5 pt favorite. That is Lehigh bet for sure. Questions will remain until we see them play; Yale off that gut wrenching loss, 0-2 in the Ivy and Lehigh hasn’t played since September. All 4 Yale games have been tight. Assuming we get best vs best, I’ll take Lehigh to be in this game, stop short of ML, but I probably should consider it - and points should be scored. Massey implies 59.5, Sagarin 71.4! Reddit 60.5.

Holy Cross at Harvard – Harvard has faced some pretty good offenses this year. Cornell last week, New Hampshire and Brown their last 3. Brown got them for 406y (5.4) and 31 pts, UNH 319y (4.8) 23 pts, and last week Cornell just 314 (5.6) and 20 pts. A little better each week. Brown was crazy with that TD that shouldn’t have happened in the end, but as it goes, Crimson D has allowed a not bad 24.6 ppg on avg the last 3 weeks and it is trending better. And after halftime Harvard D putting clamps down, UNH and Cornell just 1 TD each. Cornell did run on them, but that was Wang who is tough with his legs. Harvard O also improving each week. 299y (4.3) and 28 pts at Brown, 348y (5.4) 28 pts vs UNH and last week vs Cornell 492y (6.6) and 38 pts. Cornell D is of course bad. Don’t think Crimson running game has really clicked yet either with the RBs or DePrima, but it should. Holy Cross appears to have played some D themselves lately after not looking so good on that side of the ball to start the year. But Colgate O isn’t going to stress anybody. Fordham hasn’t shown any O since last year so I hesitate to give to give HC much credit on D. I do think HC O is still pretty good, it is different of course with Pesansky this year, but he’s had some good games (90% compl for 310 2 weeks ago!) and Clereaux has answered the bell at RB. So we will find out if the improvement Harvard has shown on D is real or not. Massey shows Harvard just 1.5 and that is a for sure Harvard bet! Sagarin has 6.6. Suppose that is the range we might expect. Naturally the lower the better just in case. I don’t really know on the total. A lower or higher scoring game seems possible. Harvard has won 4 of the last 5, HC won here in 2022 – that was HC’s outstanding 12-1 team. Harvard won last year as a huge 17.5 pt road dog! Thanks to +5 in the TO department.
 
Sacred Heart at Lafayette – Shocker for Leopards to be shut out at home by Georgetown. You could see the differences on D ’23 to ’24 with this team, but offensively, in hindsight, they have been trending down on O the last few games Columbia to Fordham, but then vs Georgetown held to 236y (3.8), Curtis only had 53y rushing, DeNoble 26% passing. 2 of 13 3rd down. Total breakdown of the O. And Georgetown’s gameplan clearly was to possess the ball as much as they could and play keep away, 39:21 TOP, Hoyas had the ball for almost 40 minutes and only ended up with 289y of O themselves on 74 plays. 4 TOs lost for Lafayette. Really weird to see that happen to them, not like Georgetown is a shut down D. So what now? Well Sacred Heart does rely more on their D, I wouldn’t normally expect them to have much success vs Lafayette, but now? I still don’t think I do. SHU just played a couple MEAC teams in Howard and Norfolk who they did ok against defensively, but those aren’t good units. I would hope with the kind of experience and players that Lafayette has this is a chance for them to get it right on O. SHU will probably try and duplicate what Georgetown did on O. SHU O isn’t the same though. They are searching at QB right now, really neither Michalski nor Herrera good. This line could be high and I’m not taking SHU it will only be Lafayette or nothing. Sagarin shows 12.2 and that would be something, 13 and under I could be on Lafayette. Anything more and I just am not interested. Massey shows it as high as 18.5. Howard was just a 7.5 pt home fav vs SHU so it has to be more than that. Howard outgained them 339-268 (4.7-4.6). SHU O has failed to top 270y of O 4x this year, been held to 15 or fewer pts 4x this year. They only had 243 (3.5) just two weeks ago hosting Norfolk. So that is the kind of O they normally are. SHU O should be pretty easy for Laf D to corral even if their D isn’t what it was last year. They’ve played the last 2 years. Lafayette won 19-14 in last year’s opener (Laf +4.5 before anyone knew they were good) and then 2022 6-0 win for Laf! Those seem like typical SHU scores. Maybe I have too much faith in the Lafayette O to bounce back, but get it fixed now before you get back into league play should be the focus this week for a really good effort from the defending league champion I would hope. Need a nice number 13 or less on Lafayette and I’ll see what happens.

Columbia at Penn – Good game. Columbia nice surprise to start the year. Look like a contender. They’ve done this before, played great out of conference, and then when they hit Ivy play their O just shrivels. Feels different this year, although the 2H of last week was a head scratcher. Get up 24-0 1H and then nothing 2H. And it wasn’t like they had drives stall or turnovers, no 2H Columbia drive went further than the Wagner 42. Really weird. Their game vs Princeton was close, Tigers led 10-6 HT then Columbia exploded for 3 straight TDs to blow that game open and they ended with a 199 yardage edge. Loss to Georgetown without their #1 QB but did lead that game 14-0. My patience with Penn is being tested. 456y on Colgate only 27 pts. Penn D couldn’t get Dartmouth off the field and Penn O struggled in that one. Penn O was better last week 394y with 31 pts, but it still could’ve been better. I will keep faith in the Penn O, the D I can’t trust. Allowed 429 (5.4) vs Bucknell (who missed 3 FGs or that game is different) allowed 439 (6.0) vs Dartmouth – both those teams completed 75/77% passes on them and Dartmouth ran for 4.9ypc. Even Colgate, 17 pts allowed by Penn is their second most vs FCS. A better Ivy D should’ve kept Colgate O down better (Colgate has been held to 3, 7 and 14 in 3 other FCS games). So I think at +4.5, 5.5, 6.5 – think I have to lean Columbia in what I assume should be a tight game. On balance Colgate and Bucknell are worse than Columbia and those were 10 pt games. The last 6 in the series, they are evenly split straight up 3 and 3. 2 were blowouts and 3 were FG games, one a 9 pt game. I’ve been waiting for Penn to show their full potential and they just have yet to do it leaving pts off the board and giving up more than they should. And Columbia for the most part has exceeded expectations and looked good. One note on Columbia, they did lose super DE Justin Townsend for the season, one of the best players in the Ivy. I may not take this game, do lean Columbia if I do, will just have to see how big of a dog they are and can revisit. Expecting a low total, that might be something there, an unexpected Over perhaps. I say unexpected, two of the last three combined for just 37 pts. Two years ago one of the blowouts was a 48 pt game. Penn totals are 3-0-1 to the Under. Was 2 pts away last week, the push was vs Delaware on 51. Avg Penn total 50.37. Columbia O/U is 2-2 (avg total 45.37). With the way that the Penn D is allowing teams to move the ball and stay on the field, if this total comes out say a TD lower than their average, somewhere low 40s then Over is something to consider. Problem is though, Penn D is bad enough they can’t get off the field, but good enough to be keeping teams from scoring - examples in the Bucknell and Dartmouth games when those teams could’ve should’ve had more pts (missed FGs, goal line stands, limiting TDs in RZ). Columbia was 70% run last week, Penn 64% run - each team’s highest of the year. Long clock ticking drives conservative play calling all enemy of Overs. I don’t know. I’ll look towards Columbia and Over at open and see where it’s at.

Stetson at Davidson – Surprise bye last week for Stetson with the postponed/canceled Valpo game while Davidson lost yet another game to Dayton. Last year Davidson ran for 483 (8.6) on the Hatters and Stetson passed for 401. That game had 57 pts at HT and ended 61-41 for Davidson as 17 pt road fav. Stetson run D really hasn’t shown that bad in their games this year, Furman 171 (4.4) was their worst. Harvard only hit them for 2.7 ypc and St Thomas 3.2. Now, what Davidson does, they are going to run and run well, just saying – I may have a figment in my imagination about this Stetson team being better this year. Too bad last week was canceled as that was a spot to prove it. Tried proving it 2 weeks ago, overcame 2 blk’d punts for TD and a pick-six, overcame that just to push. Will be tough this week vs a better team who normally eats up weak foes. Should be an Over, have to figure Davidson gets in the 40s as they typically do vs lesser opponents (avg 45.5 at home this year). Total looking to be mid to upper 50s (Davidson home games have combined ppg of 65.75). Stetson games are 2-1 to the Over, the one that was Under was 28-0 HT at Harvard that only saw 7 pts 2H and there was bad weather which definitely effected Stetson’s O (and they weren’t playing their best QB). Meitz did play last game. Stetson should score at least some. For a side, PR is suggesting 13/13.5? That seems low at first glance, however that was the Presbyterian closing line at home. And they were bet up to 19.5 vs Marist, that line started at 14 if you got it…Marist worse than Stetson? I’d say yes. Not sure how much.

Drake at Presbyterian – Presbyterian has been in 1 score games the last 2 weeks, 3 games back ‘only’ lost by 11 at Davidson with just a -20y deficit. Were +87 at San Diego where they lost on that fumble ret in OT and last week +21 yards when they were SOD at M01 and threw back-to-back INTs at the M26 and M14 at the end of the game. So they are competitive. Drake is looking pretty good. Led Butler 27-9 late 4Q before Butler got the final 8 to lost by 10. Beat Valpo 27-3, Valpo only had 80 ttl yards, Drake probably should’ve won that by more. Led San Diego also by 27-9 4Q just like Butler, but in that one SD came back on them forcing Drake to escape via a walk off FG. So vs the really bad teams, Drake wins kinda big. Vs the better Pioneer teams, they get up and were very slightly outgained in both (avg -27.5 ypg, outgained Valpo by +276). I don’t really know what happens here. Looking like a 2 TD type road chalk for Drake. They were -10.5 at Valpo. Presbyterian is better than Valpo. I’m just going to pass on this game I think.

Central Connecticut State at Dartmouth – CCSU on a 5-0 spread run! Looks like 13-18 type line. Dartmouth might be flat off huge Yale comeback win? Saving grace in that regard for Dartmouth, fact that Yale only beat CCSU by 1 two weeks ago should have their attention this week rather than looking past them. The first 3 games of this spread winning streak for CCSU they avg just 276 ypg, but the last 2 weeks their ypg is 441.5 vs Mercyhurst and Yale. Yale D proving to be bad and Mercyhurst isn’t stopping anyone. So concern would be that CCSU O vs a better D in Dartmouth may struggle. It was 301 on the ground for them last week, Olson only attempted 14 passes – doubt they can run like that this week. But CCSU has been in this role before and been fine. Dartmouth did have that Merrimack game when they only put up 280y (4.3) and 16 pts needing a final second FG to win. Proctor missed last week to injury, the guy they started for him wasn’t so hot, but the guy that led the comeback, Saunier, well, maybe he’s good enough if Proctor is out again (was said to be gametime decision last week). Don’t think I know how to play this one actually.

Dayton at Butler – Kind of a big game for hopefuls in the Pioneer. Dayton is 2-0 in league and Butler just suffered their first loss to Drake and are now 1-1. We really didn’t know much about Butler, they played 3 unlined games and Morehead and beat Murray State, what did any of that really tell us? Not much. The Drake game, Butler did move it in that one, but had a couple SOD poss in Drake territory, 2 INTs in the 2H one at the D15 and another that set up Drake for a short field TD. Lost by 10 but had a slight 333-314 (4.7-5.3) yardage edge. Really, Dayton has shown to be pretty decent team. Just beat Davidson thanks to a bunch of blk’d kicks in a 2pt win, but still, Dayton had a better rushing ypc, was better passing, better overall ypp, better on 3rd down. Dayton was -3 TOs and their two best drives of the game ended in INTs at the DV04 and DV08 yardlines or else Flyers end up with more pts in that one. They also had a couple short fields off a blk’d punt and a good punt return. So maybe that is a wash. The Dayton – Indiana State game was weird with the 326-92 ttl yard edge but losing that one because Ind St had two D scores. Thinking I have seen enough out of Dayton this year to think they are an upper half Pioneer team. Massey showing Butler -7.5, the reddit line is 12 which is hard to understand how. Sagarin has 4.9. Dayton plus the pts in this one sounds good. Neither schedule is great, Dayton is a little more battle tested. Flyers were 0-5 vs Dl last year when Butler beat them 37-10 as 6.5 pt road favs. I’m sure this Dayton team who is 3-1 vs Dl opponents is anxious to show Butler their improvements.

Georgetown at Colgate – Just going to jump right to the line on this one, seeing Colgate a 6.5 pt favorite at Massey. That is ridiculous. Reddit Colgate 2.5 and Sagarin Georgetown 1.3. A very very slight home fav for the Raiders, perhaps I can understand, but even then, I’m taking Georgetown. Of late, Hoyas beat Lafayette, beat Columbia and 3 weeks ago, they did lose to Brown, but their D held the Bears in check 2H (only allowed 6 pts) and despite the loss, GT outgained them slightly. Really ever since the SHU debacle, they have played some pretty good D. And I think they are usually good enough on O at QB, their WRs, not so much their running game although that was a key for them last week. I think Georgetown is good enough on O to win on the road vs Colgate. In my opinion they just beat two better teams than Colgate the last 2 weeks. Should be noted in those games turnovers were very beneficial for Georgetown, a net of +7 in both. If they are + or even TO margin, they win. If they are negative they lose (Brown and SHU). Colgate D is bad, their O is trying but it isn’t good. Last two games HC and Penn outgained them by 142 and 113y. They are allowing 433.6 ypg on average the last 3 and 8.1ypp to HC, 7.1 ypp vs Penn and 6.6 ypp vs Cornell! Bad! They did win the Cornell game with big rushing game, we know Cornell D is also bad. Colgate is off a bye, maybe that helps them find somethings, maybe Georgetown gets overconfident from last week? Last year’s game should make sure they aren’t. Colgate won on the road as 6pt dog despite GT having a 446-238 (5.1-4.4) ttl yard edge (Colgate 1 of 9 3rd down in that one). Turnovers per usual, GT lost 3, Colgate lost 0. I don’t see Colgate improvement this year…comparing the last 3 games; beat Cornell by 10 last year, beat them by 14 this year. Lost to Penn by 14 last year, lost to them by 10 this year. Lost to HC by 40 last year, lost to them by 31 this year. So maybe on the finals alone just a few ppg better here or there, I don’t think it is enough. In their only favorite spot of the year, Colgate was -3.5 when they hosted Cornell for their opener. Cornell led 17-0 but ended up not doing so well the rest of the game and Colgate pulled away as their D rather unexpectedly shut Cornell's scoring down after their hot start. Raiders were favored twice last year and split losing one straight up. Georgetown is better than them – just have to be mindful of those turnovers. I want the +6.5 line Massey has, or some kind of FG or greater spread. I’m not so confident I lay pts here with Georgetown as Sagarin suggests.

Villanova at Maine – Nova just covered their second game this year as a favorite vs Stony Brook. Coincidentally their first cover was a comfortable win vs Colgate. But last week was their other cover vs SB. SB actually led 24-14 mid 3Q! SB muffed a punt = short field TD, then Nova got 2 more TDs and a 21y run late for the 42-24 final scoring 28 unanswered. Some of the SB scores were easy pts off turnovers (10 pts off just 20y of O). 432-310 (7.4-4.2) yards for Nova there. Villanova came into the year way hyped and they have had the pieces to do it, however they have not put together many good games. For me, I’m not sure I am ready to lay pts with them. Maine has been much more competitive lately. Delaware appears to have blown them out last week…and by total yards they did 458-229 (6.3-4.5), but that game was 14-13 HT Maine and just 23-21 Delaware 4Q before they scored the final 21 pts including a pick-six. Maine seems to do better vs limited offenses in games they can have the upper hand offensively. 70 plays each for Bear O vs Albany and Merrimack while those opponents ran just 50 and 54 plays on their D. That is a good equation for Maine. It helps they were +5 on TOs in those two as well. Maine isn’t a good rushing O, but in those wins they ran it 46 and 43 times. Vs Delaware they couldn’t run and had their offense limited to just 51 plays while Delaware ran 73 and they were -4 TOs there. I would think this game vs Villanova mirrors something similar to the Maine-Delaware game. Delaware is definitely the best team in the CAA. Villanova shouldddd be the best playoff eligible team the CAA has if they played like it more often. I would need to be enticed on this line to take Nova though. Maybe -10 or less? Sagarin shows 9.7, so maybe. Massey is at 14.5. They did not play last year. Maine is not dogged at home often, but are 0-1 so far this year and were 0-2 last year. Personally I am prejudice for all the underwhelming games Villanova has played so I may just be sitting this out.
 
Rhode Island at New Hampshire – URI finally stopped playing in games they almost lost as a favorite and this time turned a close game into a 10 pt win vs Brown. They do normally beat Brown. And their other SU wins/non-covers recently…near upsets vs Hampton and Long Island. Those are games the odds say they should be winning, but not exactly a tough stretch of teams. Oh and weak Campbell before that where URI only had 259 ttl yards in the win. Final 3 Brown possessions last week…had a FG blk’d then INT and Fum and URI scored TD with 2.5min left to win by 10. Grrr. Moving along now, URI has not won at New Hampshire for 24 years! And they play pretty much every season! 0-10 in the last 10 trips to Durham. UNH has cooled off from a good looking 3-1 start. Even the 1H vs Harvard this looked like a team to be reckoned with. Then Harvard made halftime adjustments shutting them down and then vs Elon, they won the game with just 151y (2.6). Not like Elon O was all that great, but Elon at least gained 231 (3.7). After avg 398 ypg their first 3 vs FCS (HC, Stonehill, Bryant) they have gained just 235 ypg their last 2 and only scored 24 pts the last 6 quarters of football. So maybe the UNH success was more about facing HC, Stonehill and Bryant? Makes sense. This line should open around 6. What I’m supposed to do is look at the data and react accordingly, not hold some bias for or against a team which I have been fading URI and previously was high on UNH – so, I think Rhode Island plus those pts is the play. History be damned. As they say, how many of these players were on those teams anyway? Even if they were…the last two games played in Durham? Just 3 pt UNH wins. The patch that UNH O is in right now is concerning and maybe I have been down on URI, but they have come out ahead in those close games as winners which might not look great to us given the competition, but to the players it likely builds confidence. URI+something like 6 looks pretty good.

Hampton at North Carolina A&T – The bye might be helpful for Hampton because it may’ve been difficult to get off the mat after the OT loss to URI 2 weeks ago. They led by 14 twice in the 2H, but URI tied with 2 TDs in the final 6min, or did they? Hampton blk’d an xpt which would’ve kept the game 31-30 for them, but they were offsides and URI made the next xpt so they go to OT. Double OT actually where Hampton failed their 2pt attempt and URI made theirs. Hampton D wasn’t exactly good in that one (allowed 544, 7.5), but the passing O was. They have gone more to Mays at QB now instead of Zellous and this is better for them in most cases. The D has been bad vs both CAA foes. W&M ran for 434 (8.5) on them! Their D has been better vs the 3 MEAC opponents. NC A&T is CAA in name, but they aren’t really that good obviously. One thing I have noted is that A&T plays good 1Hs most of the time and then fades in the 2H. That trend stopped last game when they played both good 1H and 2H vs Richmond. Spiders probably should’ve won that game by more as they had issues in the RZ. A&T had been outgained pretty badly in all their games, vs Richmond was just -61y though. They’ve played a pretty tough schedule (WF, Del, NCCU) so the stats are pretty bad for them. Their run D or pass D is bad on any given day. I probably lean Hampton on what should be a very small road chalk line. One angle that is of note, Hampton either fired or their HC resigned very late this past spring. So they elevated an assistant, Trent Boykin, as interim. They announced this week he has the job full time now, no more interim title. This might provide a little extra bounce in their step coming out in his first official game as head coach. Homecoming for A&T, HBCU’s do take homecoming serious. They have had some key players injured, unsure if they are back. Hampton was -3 last year and only won 26-24 but did have a 465-318 (6.6-7.4) yard edge. Hard to really have any strong opinion here, lean Hampton to win, wouldn’t surprise me if they don’t.

Byant at Monmouth – the only thing that could keep Monmouth from scoring was a bye week! Their O has been crazy good this year. Even when they don’t maximize their points to the fullest, the yards have been there. YPP over 7 vs every FCS team even Delaware. Doubt that Bryant is going to stop them. Bryant had been allowing 41 ppg in their lined games before last week when they limited Albany to 24, which Albany sometimes limits themselves. That was Bryant’s first Under of the season. So…I would think this is still an Over game. Total should be high unfortunately with both Massey and Reddit having it at 67.5 (Sagarin has 78). The highest Monmouth total so far this year has been 64 which was at EWU (they scored 69). Maybe it comes out lower and we get to feel a little better about taking it. As for the side? Line should be north of 2 TDs. I would not lay that. Monmouth did blow out Fordham and Maine who were both playing very bad football at the time, both are playing better of late. Bryant also was playing very bad football earlier this season. They are more competitive lately, so if there was some kind of surge on this line towards 20 or something I’d take Bryant (reddit has 19).

Bucknell at Cornell – Rucker was knocked out of the Penn game 4Q last week and I believe he is out this week. Rucker is a record setting QB for Bucknell and it is hard to like them without him playing. I really am not sure if the backup is capable or not, Hardyway, but I do know Rucker was the reason that Bucknell offense had life. So this likely is going to matter. The odds have it pretty much a pick’em that would be without factoring if Rucker is out. Even with him, occasionally the Bucknell O has faltered – see the Merrimack game just 260y (4.1) with one of their 3 TDs coming in the final minute for a 10 pt loss. You don’t normally back Bucknell because of their D, so if the O is down without Rucker this figures to be a spot to take Cornell. Big Red have fallen on some hard times after their big win vs Yale. Outgained by 188y in 21 pt loss to Albany that could’ve been worse and last Friday outgained by 178y in 18 pt loss to Harvard. Both those came at home. Cornell O with Wang should operate better vs a avg-to-below avg Patriot League D in Bucknell. Cornell D isn’t good, so it’s really the assumption that Bucknell O is not going to be the same which should help Cornell D. Once news of Rucker’s injury if he’s out the line should move. Mabye. It’s FCS. Line moves do not always correspond properly to injuries known or unknown – in fact sometimes they do the opposite. Think it is smart to grab a good line on Cornell assuming Rucker is out. If the backup is good, so be it, the chance we take.

Stonehill at Merrimack – Stonehill bad. Went to a different QB last week. They’ve scored 7 in back-to-back games vs LIU and Wagner while allowing each to post over 400y of O! Bad. Merrimack is off misleading 32-24 win vs Morgan last week as they had just 172y (4.6). 23 of their pts were off of minimal to no offense. Merrimack generally does not produce on O. 264y (5.1) on Dartmouth for 14 pts, 195y (3.6) for 15 pts against Maine. Massey has this total at 51.5! Somebody is smoking crack, Under! Sagarin has 43.3 which is more like it, could still be an Under at that number. Merrimack in FCS games 2-1 to the Under (avg total 45.1), with the one Over being the misleading result last week, that one was lined 41.5. Stonehill is 4-1 to the Under (avg total 49). Their one total was Over 43 vs SHU when they somehow combined for 56. It is odd that both these teams, their lowest totals, their presumed most low scoring games are the two that went Over. Last year these two played in a 40.5 pt total, they combined for 79! Such is life in college football, results that defy the odds happen all the time. What we do is try to predict what should happen and what should happen is this game goes Under an unjustifiable line like 51.5. If this total opens where Massey has it I expect almost a 10 pt move lower by close and maybe at that point go for the middle just in case.
 
The Citadel at VMI – Citadel 429y (5.6) last week at Western Carolina, yet only 16 pts. Scored on just 1 of 4 RZ trips (missed FG from W06, INT from W10 and SOD W04 end of game). Also missed a FG from W31. The last two weeks The Citadel has outrushed Furman and WCU 428-130! Furman isn’t good and WCU doesn’t make a living on the ground, but still this is really good out of them. I don’t think that VMI’s D is going to present any more of a challenge than Furman or WCU did so I expect success there. Bennett is a better runner than passer, ok occasionally, have to watch those picks. Last year it was VMI who was sometimes competitive in their games and Citadel who was the awful team. VMI entered last year’s game 2-3 while Citadel was 0-6. Roles reversed now. VMI is 0-6 and Citadel is 2-5. VMI won 17-13 last year as 3 pt road fav. Citadel looks like the 3pt road fav now and I expect them to win. They have showed much better this year. Had the Furman game and let it slip away, played closer with WCU and ETSU than final scores suggest. And some-how, some-way they had the best offensive game on the Mercer D of anyone this year! VMI is simply awful. No offensive TDs the last 2 weeks vs Wofford and Samford, who aren’t shut down Ds. The last chance VMI had for a win they played Norfolk and absolutely got blown out at home 32-10 in a game that looked worse watching it than the score shows. Bad for VMI. The Citadel gets win #3 on the year.

Wofford at Chattanooga – Tough last week for Wofford not to get that cover, they outgained VMI 349-180 (5.1-3.0) and didn’t allow an offensive TD out of VMI so only won 31-16 as about a 16-17 pt fav (VMI blk'd punt TD and pick-six). Wofford was still starting Seeley at QB and I don't know injury status of Odom. Problem for Wofford is they are solid all around team, but aren’t that good at anything. Makes them good dogs that can hang around in games 4-1 ATS and bad as favorites who need to win by margin, now 0-1 in that role. Chattanooga is hitting stride right now, 3 game win streak and just blew the pants off Furman, leading 41-3. Their OL gives up very few negative plays in terms of sacks and TFLs. O can run it or throw it. D has been good, but Portland State showed they can give it up sometimes. Wofford does not present the kind of offensive ability Portland State does on occasion. UTC off pretty big game in terms of who Furman normally is as an obstacle in the SoCon, not true this year, but still feel that was big game for Mocs (Furman ended UTC’s playoffs last year). So could be a bit of a letdown this week. No look ahead on deck as only VMI comes to town. I don’t think I am interested in laying it, looks like about 14. Wofford has been a tough dog vs all comers, even Mercer who they failed to cover against, Wofford hung tough in that game until a blk’d punt and 3 straight INTs allowed Mercer to get up on them. I would actually consider playing on Wofford, but UTC O is playing so well right now, makes it hard, this might actually be the toughest offensive test on balance that Wofford has seen. Terriers already covered vs WCU and W&M who are pretty good on O when they get it right. Last year Wofford was pretty bad until late season and UTC was pretty good. So when they played UTC was 18 pt road fav. It was just a 10 pt game and ttl yards were just 362-297 (5.7-4.3). A game like that again here wouldn’t totally surprise, Wofford plays close with a lot of teams and may be able to do it again. This would be the biggest line UTC has been favored by, seems to show lack of respect for what Wofford has been doing as a dog all year and Chattanooga might reach a point of being overbought here pretty soon if not this week.

Northern Iowa at North Dakota – Sell sign has been on UNI all year. Depends on your lines, but by my lines I actually have them 0-6 ATS! Tough schedule. They just played USD who is playing at a very very high level, before that faced the Jacks which we know what they do. Earlier in the year they had some easy FCS games they underachieved in, but that feels like so long ago, think recent games are more relevant. They didn’t play a bad 1H on O last week. 10 pts, moved the ball better than it shows. Then the 2H USD just possessed the hell out of the ball with a 24:6 TOP edge! Nothing good to take from out of the SDSU game. So they going to get rolled here? North Dakota off bye and looks to be 2-3 TD favorite here. Remember last year? Oh I’m sure UND does. 27-0 UNI 402-187 yardage. UND was off the upset win of the Bison the week before and just got embarrassed last year - first shutout loss since 2014. UNI has not shown anything close to the ability they had last year on O. This year UND is off a loss to the Bison, bye and now get to take on UNI who humbled them bad last year. As favs UND hammered Idaho State (-11) and Murray St (-21.5) in the Alerus Center. Had a ho-hum noncover game vs San Diego (-27). Don’t think I can lay the price on UND, suppose that is the way to lean though. Maybe if it comes out at 13.5 which is what Massey has. If they can, because of last year, think they are going to want to pay UNI back in similar fashion and the way they’ve played seems pretty possible. Will watching for a good opener.

St Thomas at Valpo – St Thomas 39 pts on just 321y last week and 34 pts on just 216y 2 weeks ago. That is St Thomas football. You want to fade them…and some people obviously did last week. Their line vs Marist went from -10 to -7. I just wasn’t able to play Marist there and I’m not going to be able to play Valpo pretty much ever. Actually I think if the line is really short I might have to bet St Thomas on principle, but I really don’t want it and don’t necessarily like it. The Valpo O is as bad as any term you can come up with to describe it. The D, they give it all they have there and vs teams in their own neighborhood, defensively they aren’t that bad. I would have to think this is an Under game and some PRs suggest this could be lined at 49.5. Valpo scored 3 on Drake, 5 on Morehead, 31 in OT vs somebody named Roosevelt (on just 266 ttl yards by the way) and 20 on Indiana Wesleyan. So there is no way to anticipate that Valpo’s O is going to be doing much this week. Very lost team on offense right now. For a while they had Tyler running around and making plays, that wasn’t the case vs Drake (just 19y rushing before sacks taken into account) or Roosevelt (just 5y net rush). Tyler DNP vs Morehead as Appel came back for one game, now he is MIA. So many of St Thomas’ points are set up by turnovers and special teams I’ve lost count. It could be part of their DNA at this point and it will happen again this week. Tommies only avg 3.65 ypp all season, that includes the Sioux Falls and Black Hills games. They are not good offense. But because of the way they generate turnovers and make plays on special teams their two Pioneer games have comfortably gone Over. If this is St Thomas -2.5 as Massey suggests I think they have to be the pick. I'd just ML it so some stupid 1 or 2 pt win doesn't bite me. Reddit has Valpo -3 which is kind of funny. Sagarin has St Thomas -4.4. Really it’s likely better just to pretend this game doesn’t exist because if Valpo somehow wins I’m like ‘why the hell did I bet St Tomas I knew they aren’t good’ and if it goes Over I’m like ‘stupid Pioneer league teams doing dumb stuff’. St Thomas should win and it should go Under. I’ll leave it there.

Western Carolina at Furman – Naturally WCU is the side I’d want here. Psychologically price is important though relative to the UTC-Furman line last week. While I’d be surprised if Furman opened favored again this week, Massey does have Fur-2.5, last week the first number I saw was Fur-1.5 vs UTC. By kickoff that went all the way to UTC-7 at Bookmaker, and that was the right number, but who wants to lay those points when hopefully you don’t have to. Sagarin showing WCU-2.5 and Reddit is -6 which again, is probably where it should end up, but certainly not where you want to start. We’ll get to find out exactly where WCU and UTC stack up against each other in a few weeks. But point being, I’d like to get WCU where I was able to get UTC last week vs Furman although it may not matter, it's just psychology. Words of caution however. WCU’s game vs The Citadel was played closer on the field than the scoreboard, then WCU only beat Wofford by 4 and not that long ago, they beat Elon by 7 despite being outgained 285-254 (6.3-5.0). Their most impressive game was the loss at Montana. I will bet WCU if the number is right, they should win, but if this number gets bet up or something, I’m just saying WCU has not yet blown anyone out this year and not always played good ball. 0-3 ATS as a fav on numbers that are bigger than what this spot will be. Furman won this game last year as 3.5 pt road dog, which is what started WCU’s late season slide. They lost to Furman, then followed that with a loss to Mercer. I’m sure everyone on WCU’s team remembers that their season went sideways with the Furman loss. So that should have them sharp for this game. Furman continues to be a shell of their former self, read they might have like 10 starters out due to injuries, bunch of freshman playing. Outgained by 210y last week vs UTC, only had a +17 yard edge on The Citadel in a game they had to come from 13 down late to win by 1. Outgained by 134y and lost by 10 at W&M. So not real competitive vs playoff caliber teams in UTC and W&M (the W&M game was close for a bit due to some W&M errors). WCU is playoff caliber even if they aren’t quite the team we thought they would be before the year started.
 
Arkansas Pine Bluff at Grambling – Grambling may be a bit down after the home loss to Alcorn last week. PB on a high following their first SWAC win of the season last Friday night. PB generated some O in the 1H, but they had some significant OL issues which will be concerning vs a better DL than Prairie View has. But the Grambling OL is maybe even more worrisome as they routinely allow DD TFLs per game. I think this is just a pass for me. Grambling is better and they of course will be a pretty decent fav as they should because PB is a bad team. PB had a shot last week and won only because PV is also weak. Grambling is a step up, slowing or stopping Crawley at QB is going to be harder. The Grambling D is going to be harder for PB to deal with. Things point towards Grambling but I can’t lay large pts with them.

Mercer at Samford – Mercer D so dominant all year and Samford O isn’t especially good so this looks to be another game where Mercer D can control the game. One note here, it’s buried in the rushing stat line because of the sacks and TFLs lowering the total, but Princeton had a RB go for 117 on 21 carries. Everyone knows how good the Mercer D is, but you don’t think of a D getting the love they are allowing a 100+y RB from a Princeton team that isn’t known for good OL play. So, just saying, it needs to be acknowledged as a counterweight to all the hype we are seeing right now on the Bear D. They are outstanding, they allowed 100y rusher. Not a big deal, just saying, maybe somebody else at some point is also going to have a good run game on them amd some other things fall into place, I'm not so sure this team is unbeatable. My main worry with Mercer is that their O doesn’t pull it’s own weight and it seems to happen on the road (287y on Wofford is an example and 287 on UTC is another). If or when Mercer goes up against an offense that has some answers for their D and the Mercer O can’t contribute enough, they become vulnerable. They are getting by right now without Smith at QB who did not dress last week and had a brace on his ankle. Their #2 who started Horne, was replaced by tFr Newbauer who was better. Might Smith be out again this week, and hopefully they don’t rush him back, but if they don’t get the best play at QB it could lead to a game they unexpectedly drop to somebody. Anyway....Samford lit it up their first few drives last week vs ETSU, 3 TDs in the 1Q and then 9 punts the rest of the game with a bunch of 3-and-outs and ETSU D just lived in the backfield with 16 TFLs! Samford OL isn't good. Samford O only had 27 pts and 312y on a bad VMI D. And going back further Samford really struggled with the Alabama D who is good, but not on Mercer's level. So if somebody is going to surprise here and beat Mercer I wouldn’t think it is Samford, it would more likely be a WCU – which is who Mercer plays next week. The line here is going to matter. Massey shows 5.5, Sagarin shows 9.2 and Reddit 13. I’m treading lightly on Mercer right now and might be eyeing a play on WCU vs them next week.

Illinois State at Murray State – Boom or bust with Illinois State. They are either getting blown out or winning big. Missouri State beating them 41-7 last week was surprising. Figure that might be a close game one way or the other, but 34 pt loss is an eyebrow raiser. It was 31-0 before Ill St scored! Losing 4 TOs can do that and Missouri St O did get a boost out of those TOs. Redbirds won big at SIU who was down to 3rd string QB, SIU had a 487-407 (5.7-6.0) ttl yard advantage however. Missouri St put up 468 (6.4) on Ill St. Where is this Ill St D? Maybe it was never good to begin with, remember Western Ill hanging 34 and 500 yards on them!? AA LB Abdullah is still out. Ill St O struggling with NDSU is one thing, but doing it vs Missouri St who is not known for great D, that is a problem. Ill St is just 1-3 ATS as a fav this year. Murray St D is going to make things easier for Ill St. Murray allowed Ind St 406 (5.6), USD 582 (8.4), UND 601 (9.1), Butler 436 (5.1)…so Murray St D isn’t so good. So maybe Over here? Looks like a mid/upper 50s total. As bad as Ill St D has been playing and with the Murray D being bad and Ill St’s QBs were off last week, probably their worst FCS game of the year and that includes NDSU game - they likely play better this week. Not going to lay about 2 TDs with Ill St, but may look towards Over.

Bethune Cookman at Mississippi Valley State – Doubt anyone wants to read about this game and doubt I want to type about it.

Indiana State at Missouri State – Big impressive win for Missouri State last week. But now they are back in big chalk role that they struggle with. 0-2 ATS this year as favs of 10 pts or more. 4 turnovers and 14 pts off those TOs did assist them last week, with or without those, they are a capable offense that doesn’t necessarily need that kind of help. The D is what really surprised. YSU scored 31 on them just a couple weeks back. Ball State scored 42. Those are just two examples, they have some better games like limiting UT Martin to just 24 and 308 ttl yards with a lot of that coming in garbage time after Missouri St was comfortably ahead 31-14. Missouri State’s goal is to win the MVFC in their final year in FCS, it’s what they want to do, as unreaslistic as it sounds to all of us. Be that as it may, they are 2-0 and they can’t take Indiana State or anyone in the Valley lightly. Can I lay 3-4 scores with them? Maybe Heritage puts out a 1H line and I go at it that way. Indiana State is probably going to score a couple TDs so that means Missouri State is really going to have to score into the 40s which last week was the only time this year they have done that this year despite playing some weak teams (38 on YSU, 28 on Lindenwood). I’m going to sit this one out.

Tennessee State at Howard – Tennessee State kind of unexpectedly put together a 3 game win streak, 2 outright upsets as small dogs and a noncover 4 pt win as 4.5 pt chalks. They’ve been outgained in 2 of the 3, by 70y last week 365-435 vs Eastern Illinois and by 103 to Charleston Southern 206-309 3 games ago. The yards were even essentially vs Lindenwood 285-280. Ellis has his best game of the year, 4-0 ratio and 64% for 237y. He normally is not that good. TSU is on a 4 game Under run. So now they are going to be road favs at Howard of about 2.5 says Massey. Sagarin 5.4 and Reddit 9! Howard is on a 3 game Under run and has gone Under in 4 of 5 lined games this year. Massey says 51.5, Sagarin must know,he’s got 43.3. This is Howard’s 100th homecoming game and like I said before homecoming for HBCU’s does seem to still be a pretty big deal. I don’t really know what’s going to happen here. If I see a total in the 50s I’ll go Under.

Campbell at William & Mary – W&M has won the last two years by 10 and 16 vs the Camels (1-1 ATS). Campbell has done a whole bunch of nothing since they shocked WCU and won in Cullowhee. Didn’t play all that bad vs URI although they were never really in the game. Stony Brook beat them. Delaware State damn near beat them. NCCU beat that ass. Campbell has been good at getting some garbage type yards and pts late over the last 4 games (152 of 340y on final 2 poss vs URI and 139 of 281y on final 3 poss vs NCCU). Campbell does not figure to compete well here. They have been giving it up pretty bad on the ground, NCCU ran for 218 (6.2) and DSU ran for 265 (6.8) the last two games and running is W&M’s bread and butter (484 on Hampton and 284 on Furman). Now Towson D did well vs that W&M rush O, holding them to 168 and just 3.8ypc so there is hope for some teams out there, just don’t think it is Campbell who is going to do it. W&M lost the Towson game largely because of TOs. Towson led 20-13 3Q when W&M QB fumbled and it went 70y the other way and it’s a 2 TD game. Towson had 21 pts off TOs in that one. I would like W&M here. A couple things give me pause. 1) the line is probably going to be around 17 and if Campbell was +17 the last 2 years, then they cover both. Campbell has had their struggles this year, but it isn’t like they were good exactly the last 2 years either so a higher line now doesn't make a lot of sense. 2) Campbell has shown the willingness to get yards and pts late in the game if they are down so there is some backdoor fear if I laid these kind of pts with W&M. 3) W&M mistakes put an overmatched Furman team in the game early and because of that it was closer than it otherwise should've been for parts of that game. Bottom line, I must just not want to lay these pts.

Delaware at Richmond – Interesting game. Delaware off to FBS next year and Richmond is leaving CAA for the Patriot next year. They DNP last year, but Richmond has won the last 3 by 8, 24 and 10 pts. Delaware has been a lock for 40s on everyone this year except for Penn. Honestly, all those teams they hung 40 on are a bunch of lousy defenses so it isn’t really surprising the Hens scored on them. Penn D hasn’t been great exactly, but the fact that Quakers limited them to 29 and 375. (5.5) was well below their average ttl yards from other games says it can be done. Last week vs Maine, that game was 14-13 Maine HT and Delaware led just 23-21 4Q before they scored the final 21 which included a pick-six which made 14 pts off Maine TOs for Hens D. It was a nice 458-229 ttl yard edge for them (6.3-4.5) though. Delaware never punted vs Monmouth and that was just a 7 pt game. Back to Penn, Penn actually led 22-21 very late in that game. All of this shows some flaws below the surface on what otherwise looks like a strong Delaware team. Richmond has not been tested much outside of UVA. A solid, not great, Wofford team beat them week 2 largely because of 4 TOs. Since then Spiders have beat a bunch of weak teams sometimes by a lot sometimes by a little. Richmond has been favored in every FCS game so this will be their first dog role. They’ve outgained every FCS opponent they’ve played this year, which has not been murder’s row (Charleston Southern, Delaware St, Elon and NC A&T). Probably should’ve had some more pts on A&T. Delaware was 4-0 ATS as a road fav last year and 2-0 ATS so far this year. Richmond is not a home dog very often, they weren’t at all last year and I’m feeling too lazy to look at 2022, not sure that matters anyway. Close game for Hens vs Maine for 3+ quarters, back-and-forth with Monmouth, close game with Penn – seem to think that Richmond can compete in this game. I wonder if their D is good enough, hasn’t faced the best competition. You know, I kind of compare Richmond with Coleman at QB to Penn. Not a ton of confidence in it, but could consider Richmond if the line is right. Which is the question. Massey 3.5 and Sagarin 6.6 and Reddit 12. I don’t think 3.5 is enough, but something higher and I could take a shot on Spiders here. Not sure who their QB is, they’ve played both. Coleman the better passer, Wickersham more of a runner but ok passer sometimes they can be a balanced O with either guy.

Elon at Albany – Elon on 4 game losing streak, all 4 Under, 3 of them Elon was favored and one was pick’em. Last week UNH sacked them 9x! Flashback to when Duke sacked Elon 8x week 1. Elon D gave up 7+ ypp to Richmond, ETSU and NCCU. Not much to like with Elon. Albany on a 2 game win streak, although wins were just vs Bryant and Cornell. Both were on the road. Maine beat them last home game here, which that was a somewhat misleading result as it was 27-20 when Maine got a 78y pick-six under 2min left to win by 14. Maine had nearly a 2:1 TOP edge so Albany only ran 50 plays for 260y (5.2). Albany looks like they have figured some things out finally and should be better than Elon right now. Still can’t have much faith in laying pts with them.

Florida A&M at Jackson State – Big game. ESPNU. FAMU whooped them week 0 last year 28-10 (was 28-0 HT). I have not paid much attention to FAMU since week 1. They’ve had 3 byes. Last game they beat Alabama State 28-13, but it was just 21-13 when FAMU got a fum ret TD with 2min left. 308-279 (4.7-4.9) for FAMU in that one. ASU is known as a good defensive team, so low yardage there maybe not surprising. FAMU played Troy and Miami Fl. Going back further, I know they trailed SC State 7-18 before winning that one 22-18. They trailed Norfolk by I want to say 14 before squeaking that one out 24-23. They posted 400y on both those teams way back early in season. Jackson hasn’t always played 4Q game. Got up 38-10 on Alabama A&M then were outscored 7-28 2H (and outgained by 126). Handled Texas Southern easily. Lost 5 TOs vs Grambling and Grambling scored 2 D TDs and another 10 pts on very short fields off all those TOs. Got up 23-3 on Southern HT, but only won 33-15. In 4 games vs FCS Jackson is avg a healthy 7.1 ypp on O. The D has been pretty good but they gave up over 400y to Southern and A&M mostly due to the poor 2H performances. I don’t know here. Vs a good team, with Jackson’s inconsistencies how does that play out in this game? FAMU is not the ’23 version by a long shot. Based on the first 2 weeks they looked very beatable and the ASU game wasn’t all that great. Tough game to figure out really. I’m going to stop trying.

That takes the games through 3:30. Thursday and Friday are a little more challenging time wise but goal is to hit all the games. Some lines probably come out tomorrow. Hopefully I'm in position to get some openers.
 
After running through those games, using the 3 odds sources I posted earlier here is what I’m looking for so far. More work to do on the 4:00 later games.

Wager + more than 3 (Massey 6.5)

LIU / Robert Morris waiting for spread at open or movement to signal me

Lehigh + TD or more, possible Over if less than 60 (Sagarin and Massey 9.5, Massey 59.5)

Harvard – a small line to ML (Massey 1.5)

Lafayette – less than 2 TDs (Sagarin 12.2)

Columbia + 3 or more, maybe Over if low (Massey 6.5, Sagarin 40.4)

Stetson/Davidson Over mid 50s (Reddit 55.5)

Dayton + what looks like could be 7 or higher for some reason (Reddit 12, Massey 7.5)

Georgetown + pts (Massey and Reddit Colgate favored, Sagarin Hoyas fav)

Rhode Island + pts (Massey and Reddit 6.5/6)

Bryant/Monmouth Over if no higher than mid 60s (Massey and Reddit 67.5)

Cornell as any kind of dog (assumption Bucknell QB out, line may change later) (Sagarin +1.6, Reddit +3)

Stonehill/Merrimack Under 50 anything, maybe 49.5 (Massey 51.5)

The Citadel ML assuming -3 or less at open (Sagarin 2.8)

Wofford + maybe if high enough (everyone shows +14-16 should go up towards kick)

UND - need less than 2 TDs (Massey 13.5)

St Thomas and Under - oh hell (Massey -2.5, Massey/Reddit 49.5/49)

WCU as dog or short fav to ML (Massey +2.5, Sagarin -2.4)

Ill St – Murray Over mid 50s (Massey 55.5)

TSU/Howard Under something in the 50s (Massey 51.5)

Richmond + 4 or higher (Sagarin +6.6, Reddit +12)

Albany ML if low enough, don’t love it (Reddit -3.5)
 
SEMO at Charleston Southern – SEMO on mission right now to get back to playoffs after missing last year. Beat their top competitor already in UT Martin now running through the rest of the teams who probably aren’t good enough to win the league anyway. SEMO 4-1 ATS this year as fav. Charleston Southern certainly is bad – they failed to score an offensive TD on Lindenwood last week and were outgained 197-392. CSU 3rd down O was just 1 of 12 last week and 3 games ago they were just 2 of 13. Bad offense! Their last home game they were beaten by Western Ill of all teams! Only concern would be SEMO less than A game, maybe working on some other things they want to get better at, almost using it as a scrimmage (see SEMO's NW St game for instance). That was kind of different off the SIU rivalry game. CSU can be run on (Lindenwood 240 (4.0) and Richmond 213 (4.4) or passed on (Western Ill 74% and Richmond 87%) and their D doesn’t get off the field, Lindenwood converted 45% 3rd downs, Western Ill converted 54%, Richmond 50%. Line won’t be any lower 17 and will probably open around 19/20 I’d guess. SEMO should be able to name their score, just keep the back door closed.

Austin Peay at Utah Tech – Utah Tech has been a great team to fade all year. Maybe some people been riding against NW St, I’ve been riding against Utah Tech. Good times. I will say, their best game was vs Abilene Chrisitian, which was part of the reason I liked UCA so much against ACU. Utah Tech put up 508y on ACU and 30pts and it was not garbage time stuff. Since that high water mark, Utah Tech as receded to being held below 250 ypg and losing each of the last two by 40+ vs North Bama and Tarleton. So then, we have Austin Peay. Not a fan of AP. They barely beat West Georgia and I’d argue West Georgia might've been the better team. AP would like to run it and that is what you’d rather they do because their pass game isn’t so good. AP has played some good teams and their D hasn’t done so well either. The Southern Utah game was pretty even though. This line is going to be too high for me to keep fading Utah Tech. Laying 17 with Austin Peay on the road? Who wants to do that? That’s Massey, Sagarin has 11.8 I see. This might actually be a game that Utah Tech sees as a shot at a win themselves. This is the weakest team Utah Tech has played all season…so maybe they are the play here. Hell, if I’m talking that way I will ML them as well. Two bad teams play eachother, never know what can happen. I’m telling you, if Utah Tech plays like they did their last home game, the ACU game, they definitely could surprise here.

Eastern Kentucky at Abilene Christian – I haven’t been high on this Eastern Kentucky team and ML’d against them a couple weeks ago, turns out it was just the wrong team and the wrong spot. EKU got showed up last week SUU beat them by 21 and outgained them by 206. Now that they are in league play it’s going to be harder for them compared to their soft FCS nonconference schedule. ACU needs to get their heads right and quick. One week after their biggest win as a Dl one member at home vs UCA, they go on the road and become victims to North Alabama’s biggest win as a Dl member. North Alabama finally put it all together vs a good team, finally. UNA isn’t as bad as their record even though that looks like a bad loss for ACU I do not view it that way. One thing is for sure, the ACU D is bad which makes it tough to like them as any kind of favorite. UNA 506 (8.2), UCA 528 (6.7), Utah Tech 508 (6.8) – those are the last 3 yards allowed by this D! I like ACU to get the win here, but don’t have an appetite to need them to win by x.

Tennessee Tech at Western Illinois – These teams are very up and down. Especially Tenn Tech, W ILL is mostly down. Tenn Tech lost 3-34 at SEMO last week, which is fine, two teams on different levels. They lost to SC State before that who I like and that was a close game that could've went either way. The real surprise was the 52-21 win at GW 3 weeks ago! That came out of nowhere. So the week before their O produces 17 pts (not counting D had a pick-six), the week after GW their only score 20 and then only score 3 on SEMO. Is GW just that bad or what? I actually thought GW was trending up for a bit. Maybe that game illustrates what Tenn Tech can do when it hits right (scored on 6 of first 7 poss). If that is the case Western Ill D likes to give it up. Even a weak offense like Charleston Southern put up 431 (6.6) on them – CSU’s avg O in their other 5 games is just 255.4! That's a wow to me. W ILL won that game as they had 14 pts off TOs. I think I’d like to buy some Tenn Tech here and maybe some recent results will show some value in doing so (Sagarin TTU -5.4).

Lindenwood at Gardner Webb – Funny how sometimes these games are right next to eachother, just talked about the Tenn Tech 52-21 win at GW a couple weeks back. GW is weird because they looked to play well vs JMU and Charlotte and then took care of Presbyterian as I guess we'd expect. Next thing you know they are losing to Tenn Tech by 30 and then weren’t competitive at all with UTM (117y and 2 TDs on their final 2 poss of game to make it look closer). Bye last week. I am going to have a little more faith in Lindenwood here than maybe I should. Lindenwood played even with Eastern Ill and Tennessee State. They could’ve won both or lost both of those, they went 1-1. They blew a lead and lost vs TSU and came back from 17 down to beat EIU last game on the road. Kind of never know with some of these teams what they might do. Had a pretty decent game vs a bad CSU team last week. Don’t know if GW is going to win this or Lindenwood maybe, but I think it could go either way and likely is a close game. Massey has GW-7.5 and I would take those pts with Lindenwood. Sagarin is only 1.3.

Montana State at Portland State – Classic let down spot for Montana State. Some teams are more immune to that than others. I'd assume that to be the case with Cats. Not sure if this means anything, but road games this year for Montana State…at Idaho State 3 games back. Only 17-7 HT and 17-10 early 4Q. The 37-17 win isn’t reflective of how the game was (and half of Montana State's passing yards came on one play). Utah Tech…long time ago now, week 1, but 14-0 HT against one of the worst teams in football. They did lead 31-0 early 4Q, should’ve had some more pts there, but the point is they didn't. Personally I would rather lay 20 with Montana State than have to rely Portland State to cover it just because how bad Portland State D typically is. Cats come out with their best, they are scoring every possession, or should. I don’t think I am going to back them however. I don’t like needing them to cover 3 TDs off the Idaho game. Even in some games they have been up big, reserves come in and the other team covers. Happened a few times. I also don’t like the fact that Portland State is off their best game of the season coming back home for just their second home game all year. And the last time they were here, they had UC Davis beat. Montana State here not for me, but I would need 28 to consider Port St and it won’t get there.

Cal Poly at Idaho – Idaho has to be running on fumes at this point. What a schedule. And with all the injuries. Now the #3 QB Josifek is injured with a collarbone just like their #1 QB and their back to their #2 who isn’t 100% Wagner and they started Josifek over him last week because of accuracy issues Wagner has. Their top two DL were banged up and had limited snap counts a game or two ago as well. Result of playing all those good teams to start the season. Cal Poly is not a good team and the last not a good team Idaho played at home was Albany who the Vandals led 41-3 with scores by every unit. Juice seemed different back then, I don’t know now. Cal Poly D is very bad so that should help Idaho. Might be a game their rushing attack just goes off as Eck won’t want to get his QB hurt any more than he is and it’s run the ball and defense and get this game in the books. And that should work fine vs CP. The PR lines have this anywhere from 19.5 to 28.5. Not sure what I do, guess I know when I’ll see it, but interested a little in Idaho if below 3 TDs. Might be better just to pass. Maybe Under something in the 50s is best. Can’t see CP scoring much. CP likes that Jones at QB, he was out last week. Not sure status. He does seem to give them a spark. Feels like of like 34-13.
 
Lamar at Texas AM Commerce – A lot of people liked SFA to win last week vs Lamar. I liked it too but didn’t want to lay the 8 pts. SFA did beat them,but it was fairly close. SFA got up 13-0 and then Lamar came back a little and was right there the rest of the game. Lost by 7. Actually had a 456-443 (5.8-6.9) yardage edge. This is good for Lamar because the two games right before their bye week were really bad (lost to UCA by 20 and beat Tx So but should’ve lost). Lamar has been Under every game this year. A&M Commerce got to flex on NW State last week which is nice. They still turned it over twice; they have lost 21 TOs this year! Maybe their offense from last week gained some confidence, but they weren’t that good before that. Only had 2 good drives all game at SLU. Had like no good drives all game vs Sac St before that. I like Lamar here. Massey shows -2.5. I just ML those numbers because I can’t stand to win a game by 1 or 2 when I was -2.5. Lamar won this game by 20 last year and no doubt TAMC is better this year, so it should be closer. Basically just picking Lamar to win. Counting on turnover streak for TAMC to continue.

Marist at San Diego – Marist has shown some O vs the lesser teams on the schedule. Problem is the D is just so bad. They dug out of an early 0-15 hole last week to lead 18-15! Then St Thomas reasserted and Marist got a last TD :19 to make it look closer. Marist D actually played their best statistical game of the year, I mean it’s not great, but Pioneer average I’d say. You wouldn’t know it based on the score because St Thomas pulls all kinds of tricks in their games. But Marist limited them to 321 (4.8) and they actually had a positive ttl yard edge for the first time this year. And two weeks back, while it never felt like Marist was ever really in the game vs Davidson, they did trail just 19-28 4Q after getting down by 21 early. So they try. San Diego is still mysterious to me even though I have been involved in two of their games, against both times. Before the bye, they never led vs Presbyterian until their returned the fumble in OT for the game winning score. Vs Drake they got down by 18, then came back to lead and lost at the gun. Really bad offense vs Presbyterian last time out (1.4 ypc rush and 246 ttl yards 3.7 ypp, 49% completions). Maybe that was just an off game, they shouldn’t be that bad? They haven’t rushed for over 100y on anyone since week 1 (CalPoly) and didn’t top 300y total O vs Central Wash or Presbyterian. I don’t really know here. Feels like San Diego being this big of a favorite is always weird. -18 vs Presbyterian barely won. Massey says 22.5 here?

McNeese at Incarnate Word – I feel so much better promoting Incarnate Word this year on any given week or if I wanted to defending a ranking position of something compared to last year. And their play is proving that as well. It’s a long time ago now, but they played SDSU pretty good for 3Q and that is not easy to do. They played SIU when they had their QB and were at full strength. That looks like a bad loss now perhaps, but SIU was just really starting to blossom when their QB got hurt in that one. Shame. Sure they had a very misleading win vs NAU, last two weeks, outgained PV by 236 (yawn I know), but they beat Nicholls like a drum. Just when you thought Nicholls might be good in Southland play, nope. Problem is now, price is getting high. They were only -3 vs Nicholls, only -5.5 vs NAU. Looking like17-ish here. McDowell was hurt on his throwing hand vs HCU, left game early, they tried after HT but he couldn’t throw. Bye last week. I don’t know status right now. McNeese never really felt as good as their record honestly. They were 4-2, 4-1 vs FCS and off the Weber game, which I haven’t thought Weber was good all year so nice win, but not as impressive perhaps. Should’ve lost to SFA, played like garbage most of the Southern game. The line makes it hard to get involved, at least for me. I’m not taking McNeese and I would only lay a big number with IUW vs a truly bad team. Depending on one’s perspective, maybe McNeese is bad…I mean when Houston Christian runs for 414 (7.1) on you, there is a pretty good chance you are bad.

Stephen F Austin at Southeastern Louisiana – good game with some appeal. SLU has covered 3 straight, won 2 outright in a row now. SFA has some momentum 3 straight wins . Played well enough to beat McNeese 4 games back, but lost. Rolled some bad teams. Got a tough win vs Lamar…not like they were head and shoulders better than Lamar, but better. Vidlak (you know him from Montana last year before McDowell replaced him…and he was at Boise and Oregon St before that) – he’s putting together a nice year! 17-2 ratio 261 ypg. Think we are starting to see who Southeastern Louisiana really is and it’s better than we thought based on how the season started. I was impressed with how they played Tarleton State. That game was tight and Tarleton is pretty good, SLU could’ve won, led 33-29 late and lost by 3 only outgained by 19y. Low scoring game without a lot of yardage vs A&M Commerce. SLU moved it in that game a little better than the score and yards indicate while TAMC struggled; Commerce’s second to worst FCS game on O after Sac State. So good on the SLU D there and last week. SLU dominated a previously hot HCU team who came into that one on a 2 game winning streak. So I respect what SLU has done lately. Although, I think that SFA has a higher ceiling with better offensive balance. These Ds might be close to even. To me, this is an attractive matchup that I want to be involved in. Should be close with some key plays or turnovers tipping it one way or the others. SFA has played well on the road, picking up the Lamar win, they led by 10 multiple times at McNeese (lost some key turnovers) and they covered a big dog line at North Texas only losing by 15 despite being outgained by 256. Not crazy about laying road pts here just on a value principle as Sagarin has -1.25. Massey has SLU-1.5. I suspect that wherever it opens, it will move towards SFA so I will try to take them early.

South Dakota at YSU – I don’t think YSU has shown any improvement as the year has gone on, which is bad sign for them. SDSU is going to be difficult for just about everyone and they were vastly outmatched there and it played out exactly like that too. Pretty embarrassing really. YSU must be getting used to being embarrassed as Pitt did it too. YSU did respond off the Pitt game with a solid performance at Missouri State. Vs the mid-tier or fringe upper level Valley teams, YSU can be a competitive team, but they have lost ground vs the elite in the league, last year they were getting close. Not now. They only lost at USD by 3 last year and that was a really tight game. Can’t see it that way this year. It’s like YSU is playing with 10 guys on D and the O makes too many mistakes. It is a 1H problem (Missouri State scored on their first 4 possessions) and a 2H thing (only 1 of 6 YSU’s drives on O vs Indiana State got across midfield). So the D gives it up and the O doesn’t keep pace even vs the Indiana State types. South Dakota is the exact opposite. Last week they scored on 6 straight vs UNI. They scored TDs on 4 straight to open vs SIU. 59-0 vs Murray is self-explanatory. This line is 13.5 on Massey’s chart, which looks great for USD. I suppose the one thing would be, in a difficult road environment, will they play any different? Not too many road stadiums are really that difficult in the FCS and YSU is not. USD played probably better than expected by some at Wisconsin. The game at Murray I don’t know how to take anything away from that. I would think USD is fine here at that number. They do have game at SDSU on deck. Could be legitimate look ahead. They just got done watching film on YSU play SDSU to get ready for this game I assume and they know they got them next. Unless coaches maybe didn’t use that film on purpose to not get the Jacks in their heads. College football things can happen, as bad as YSU has been and as good as USD has been, I can truthly say that I wouldn’t be all that surprised if this is close. But predicting most likely outcomes, if the line is 13.5 USD has to be the play based on how this season has gone.

UC Davis at Eastern Washington – Tough game to call for me. EWU showing fight. UC Davis finally beat somebody by margin. I think this can be a funny game. UCD hasn’t been so good on the road. Maybe the Idaho win had an effect on how they played at Portland State. They weren’t that great at Southern Utah though either. They trailed at HT at both PSU and SUU. As great as the Idaho win was, UCD was outgained 312-459 (4.7-5.8) and outrushed 26-185 (.8-5.4). Davis is good, but are they really top 10 good? Got to give the kids on EWU a lot of credit. After starting the year a very disappointing 1-3 they played Montana like it was the Super Bowl and then followed that up, weren't flat, with a good win at Sac St where they never trailed by more than 7 and actually outrushed SacSt 286-127 (5.3-4.4) when everyone knows run D has always been an achilles heel for EWU – Griz tore them up on the ground, but EWU ran for 263 (6.7) themselves. And Visperas, 15 of 17 passing last week! 11-1 ratio on the year and he’s been contributing a lot in the run game. UCD QB Hastings has 6 INTs (and some shoulda been INTs) but most of those were early in the year. Of late he has gone 10-1 ratio the last 3 games. And Lan Larrison is #4 FCS All-Purpose with his rush+receiving yards. I think this sets up to be an awesome game. Throw in the fact that UC Davis has NEVER beat Eastern Washington! Not just on the red, but 0-11 home or away! Davis is a small road fav. This should be good!
 
the Line for yotes/guins will likely be -30, not 13. at -13 the Yotes would be a play of the year type candidate.

USD was 28.5 at Murray and only 21 home vs UNI

Massey could be way low. Saragin shows it as 19.4. Not like these PRs are always were they start from, but they sometimes do
 
took Prin. ML. backs against the wall. offense looked atrocious all season but they did move it against mercer. feel like if their season is ever going to turn. its going to be tomorrow night
 
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