Thanks guys! Get money this weekend
Adding to the above posted play on SJSU:
SJSU ML (-118) ----- MASTERED
Of course I feel confident at -1.5 also, just figured with the reduced juice I'll take it here. A couple things I dont like about SJSU in this game....of course #1 is the altitude in Laromie. That concerns me. Other thing i dont like, but not quite sure if it worries me about this game, is Joe Gray's arm strength....they have gotten great production from him but he hasn't thrown it downfield much, & also the Red Zone offense has been lacking.
Now for why I am supremely confident in this pick....The offense has been so much more effective for Sparta since Joe Gray has taken over. He doesn't have great arm strength, but he does have high accuracy & he adds a mobility factor to the position. B/c of his ability to pass the ball effectively, SJSU's running game has came back to life b/c now they have holes to run through. In this match up w/ Wyoming, I love SJSU's offense here. Sparty has much more speed than Wyoming has & that should show on Saturday. Wyoming has also been less than crisp in the secondary ever since FS White got injured, as his leadership & communication looks to be missed. If TE Billy Freeman is a "go" for Saturday, then I think Joe Gray & the whole offense could have success not only on the edges, but down the middle too.
Most surprising thing about SJSU is that they actually have a defense this year....& a good one. The secondary looks real, & I think the run D will actually prove to be better than their numbers show. Main reason for defense doing well....DC Greg Robinson. The dude has done work here. SJSU pass D numbers are probably faulty b/c of some of the teams they have played, but regardless, after watching them a few times this year I do feel like it's probably the best pass D in the MWC. Mind you, they did hold a pretty good UNLV passing offense in check, & against Nevada they completely eliminated Fajaro from passing the ball. Run D numbers dont look good, but they did play Auburn & Minnesota (gave up 365avg these 2 games), and if you take out those 2 games then they have allowed just over 4ypc (respectable). Wyoming doesn't run a read option offense like those 2 teams do though, & I think SJSU will be better suited against the run vs a team like Wyoming who will line up & run pro offense.
Bottom line here is that I do have concerns about the altitude catching up to this team. But SJSU is off a bye, & as ridiculous as it sounds, they control their destiny in a very average MWC. They have a lot of games on the road coming up, & I'm confident they know how important this win is. Overall, i think they are a far better team than Wyoming (a team that is transitioning under Bohl). The offense is much more efficent under Gray, and the defense is well coached & has some NFL talent. More reasons to like this game: SJSU holds DECISIVE advantages on both 3rd down offense & defense for both teams. Sparta is good at both, Wyoming is struggling at both. I would like to see SJSU get out to an early lead just incase the altitude catches up to them late in the game lol.
Okie St (+10) ----- REG
Okie St ML (+340) ----- Small Potatoes
I could go no rants about why not to pick OSU. They can't run the ball effectively....going back to what I believed preseason was a huge loss when Joe Wickline went to Texas (notice Texas OL getting better this year too), they are young team, etc etc.
But what I do like about it: TCU is in a massively bad spot here. Coming off of 2 games against top 10 opponents & now facing probably the most over rated #15 team in recent memory. Patterson even said that "there were tears" after the game against Baylor. It's hard to cap how teams do after emotional games like that, so I wont put too much stock into it. But what I do know is that there are reasons why TCU, West Virginia, and nearly every other school that goes from a small conference to a power 5 conference struggle their first few years: and that is b/c they aren't used to the grind of these schedules. They arent used to playing quality competition every week. TCU may be over that hump now, but I'll have to see it to believe it.
Last week there were 2 big reasons why I picked Baylor: 1.) Their defense is struggling covering the deep ball. 2.) Even though Boykin is probably the most improved player in the nation, he has yet to show up in a 4th qtr...didn't against OU & didn't against Baylor. Which I dont blame him, it's something 95% of players have to have experience w/ before they can do. I don't know how much Boykin's 4th qtr has to do w/ this game against OSU though, but what I do know is that Daxx Garmon throws a very good deep ball, & OSU's WR's are probably 2nd best in the Big 12 behind Baylor. I expect for Gundy to get some wrinkles to get Tyreek Hill the ball more. & although Boykin only hurt his non-throwing wrist....I think that will take away some of his scrambling abilities, which IMO hinders this offense big time. OSU also has very good athletes & an underrated DL to help contain him hopefully. Gundy is like 9-1 ATS as a 10+pt dog too I believe....I think they keep it close.
