ESPN Handicapper scores, Week 4

[TahoeLegend]

Never did get Phil Steele picks and didn't get Stanford Steve's pick on Army Syracuse

If anyone knows what they did I'll include it in their scores

 

[bones]

Here's Bet the Board for Week #5. Will get it moved when Week 5 thread is up:

Recap of last week’s games per Payne or Powers:
Florida State critical of running on second and long, 14 times for 5 yds/zero success. FSU toughed it out; Clemson was playing the best they can play.
Bama “top 5 defense” now.
Ohio State Powers not impressed…McCord had a lot of turnover worthy plays and OSU O line did not look good, ND D line won that battle. Lot of questions re OSU.
Connor Weigman Downgrade: Powers has downgraded A&M 1 to 1.5 points with Weigman out.


Utah @ Oregon State -3.5/44.5: Payne thinks that line will move to Beavers -1.5 if Rising plays.
Beavers are 13-1 straight up & ATS in last 14 home games. Utah has hard time on the road. Wittingham has said “we must stretch the field” but can they? Beavers 2dary looked bad in 1H vs Wazzu. Payne does not know if Rising going to play. Payne: If Rising not playing then they will not have much O success. The Beavers D line “can kinda get bullied, but Utah O line not been great getting push…Beavers defense secondary outside of top 100…Utah’s receivers not as good as Wazzu’s Wazzu pass plays 60% wins and 25% explosive agst Beavers, but w/o Rising Utah cannot throw Utah has 39% success rate passing and outside the Top 80 passing game.”

Powers thinks Beavers will run and try to prevent DJU from making mistakes. DJU is less than 50% passing last 2 weeks. He thinks Beavers’ play calling has been bad and DJU needs to have more designed runs. This will be best O line Utah D has faced in the run game, but they are not as good at pass blocking. Utah is #3 in country in stopping the run. Beavers need to try more deep passes to good wide receivers (Bolden & Gould). Utah has #1 edge rusher in nation and the Utah D has “players at every level. But,Utah left receivers open in downfield passing that UCLA QB missed” so Beavers will likely have passing opportunities. “Utah D is good but are they really good?” is the question based on Utah’s schedule thus far.

Florida @ KY -1/ 44 : KY has won first 4 games by 11 or more pts, but has lost 4 of 5 last conference home games. Gators have lost 8 of last 9 on the road. Florida 57th road game as ranked team vs unranked opponent since 1995, first time as underdog. They have gone 47-9 ATS but lost the last 2 times vs KY and LSU.

Powers does KY O vs Gators D. Leary for KY has career high for ints already this season. Counting stats say KY looks good but they have played weakest strength of schedule of the Top 40 teams according to Powers. “Ky can look explosive but they have only run 220 plays (55 a game) third fewest in the country….see some signs for worry…only 47% success rate on O, worried re O line and Leary has 83 QBR and less than 50% completion rate.” Powers has seen throws which make him question Leary’s injury to Pec muscle. He likes KY running back and 3 wide receivers. Gator’s # 5 total D and PFF grades it #10 D in country. He likes Austin Armstrong…Florida D “has exceeded expectations.” Gators have given up explosives. Florida “ate alive” Charlotte’s pro-style qb and when they brought in the option qb they moved the ball. KY may have tough time moving the ball with Leary, but they have always played one of best games agst Florida.

Florida offense is 55th in country in yds per play and last in SEC in scoring. Mertz leads SEC in completion % but is last in air yds per attempts and has only thrown 4 TD passes and was sacked 3 times last week. Payne says Gator Offense is ugly if they cannot run ball. But O line will be back together this week and have not been for some prior games. KY D numbers may be skewed b/c of their weaker prior opponents. Vandy was able to run agst Ky and Gators may be able to do so? Napier has been good coach in helping Mertz. KY is outside Top 70 in passing success rate allowed even with soft schedule. “The betting market has sniffed the game out as we have seen line move from -3 to -1 and O/U from 47 to 44.” Gators will try and grind game out and have a controlled pass game.

Sounds like they liked Gators and UNDER at earlier numbers but now lines are about right and no call was made

Notre Dame @ Duke (they neglected to give Line they were looking at):
Last time a ranked Duke team hosted a ranked opponent was 1994 when #23 Duke hosted #13 Virginia and won 28-25. Gameday makes its maiden trip to Duke. Elko has evidently said: “I’m not sure our team is ready for the circus to come to town.” Elko is 13-4 thru first 17 and best 17 game start in school history. Duke won 1st 4 games by 21 points.

Powers: ND had “missed opportunity” last week, it was “devastating.” He worries that ND players may have bad let down this week. Powers was surprised by success of ND interior O line vs Ohio State - got push agst OSU. Big thing to keep eye on are injuries to wide receivers; Thomas has a hamstring, another receiver is out and Salerno in slot has been out. Versus Ohio State ND receivers had only 8 catches for 94 yds. Duke #4 in country in pass D, but this has been agst lesser opponents. He does like ND’s T.E. Mitch Evans. “ND O line owned OSU at times.” Duke D is very well coached and does not do dumb things or commit dumb penalties. Duke allows 4.4 yds per pass attempt, the best in nation. Clemson gashed Duke in run game at times. Remember, Clemson was inside the Duke 10 yd line 3 times and came away with ZERO points…should worry you if you are Duke. Last week, U Conn‘s right side O line got top PFF line grades in country against Duke defense (Powers was skeptical). He thinks ND and Estime can run the ball effectively and ND should keep it simple. ”This will be best team Duke has faced in the Elko era.” Besides a test of the Duke D, Duke qb, Leonard, will face his toughest test.

Payne says he “spent 5 hours trying to figure out how Duke will move the ball.” ND Defense graded out very well vs Buckeyes. They only allowed 27% successful runs and only 4% of the run plays gained 10+ yards. Payne: The question is what is the ND mindset after last week? The Duke Oline “has come back to Earth” since Clemson game. Payne thinks ND secondary has played well. “Game is a total pass to me right now based on the line.” He said if ND “is able to show full out then the line is short.” Payne thought ND offensive game plan last week was “dogshit.” Hartmann looked very good agst Ohio State and they lost b/c of “the coaching staff let the players down.” He thought ND beat OSU badly.

Sounds as if they like ND but are worried after last week. Powers upgraded ND’s power rating as did Payne. Duke power rating has also been upgraded.

Coastal Carolina vs Ga Southern -6.5/64: Powers gives edge to Ga Southern and said “we’re laying it with Ga Southern…two teams going in opposite directions based on coaching hires.” So they are making another Non-Power 5 selection. Powers likes their offense and defense…defense he very positive. He is anti-Coastal and their coaching. Payne thinks Coastal overrated and coaching bad.

LSU @ Ole Miss +2.5/67.5:
Ole Miss is 1-9 in SEC games when held to 28 or fewer and 13-3 when scoring at least 29. This is Kelly’s first game agst a ranked road opponent while at LSU. LSU has lost last 3 road games vs ranked opponents and have not played such a game since the ‘21 season. LSU holds longest current OVER streak of FBS teams with 8. Ole Miss has gone UNDER 7 straight games agst AP ranked opponents, avg closing total line is a shade less than 61 and avg score ends shade less than 45.

Payne: “No doubt Ole Miss improved defensively year over year and allowing less than less than 3 points when teams get inside their 40. But, does not think this is a TOP 30ish defense and it is stepping up in class vs a Top 5 offense.” He thinks LSU finds success thru the air where Ole Miss is outside Top 95 on defense. Long/short he thinks Daniels and receivers can win and LSU O Line is very good “I think LSU is going to score some points here boys.”

Ole Miss O has looked not very good vs Tulane and Bama. LSU has questions on pass defense (Arkansas), and Powers thinks “Ole Miss offense has the edge” vs LSU defense. But, Jackson Dart has taken brutal shots and he questions some of his throws with wide open receivers. There is inconsistency with running back and receivers as well as the O line which is ranked #56 per PFF. Dart has been best rusher on the team but he cannot continue to take the shots running. Franklin, the new portal rb from UTSA, is running with 1st team in this week’s practice. Dart and receivers can have success agst LSU secondary which is outside top 100 in several categories. Powers was essentially very disappointed in LSU defense, particularly the back 7, he likes LSU D line.

Kansas @ Texas -16.5/63:
OU is up next for Texas. Both teams 4-0 and both teams score over 30 points in all 4 games. Last 3 games have been high scoring. KU returned more O players than any team in country. Texas strength is their defense.

Powers: It’s going to be “strength vs strength” KU O vs Texas D. He really like KU’s play caller on offense. He puts defenses facing multiple formations, groupings and KU will be best O Texas has faced. Daniels, KU QB, is Top 20 in QBR and has nice runners and receivers and the KU has continuity from last year. Texas D is best KU has faced, but Texas can let up some explosive pass plays. Texas up front is good and Sweat in the middle is #1 graded interior lineman in nation. He likes Texas linebackers. Texas secondary has not been as good as the front seven and tackling has been an issue. There is a path to success for both KU O and Texas D. “If you made me say, slight edge to the Texas defense.”

Texas has a 21 pt qtr in each of 1st 4 games. Ewers has protected the football. Jonathan Brooks has chance for 3 straight 100 yards games. Payne: “Ewers one turnover worthy play this season.” Texas is outside Top 90 in rushing success and has only 15 runs of 10+ yards and 4 of them by Ewers. Texas only avg 3.9 points pr trip inside the 40. Sark understands Texas needs to improve. Saying all that, Kansas is getting a big step up for their defense and not sure they can handle it. Offenses KU has faced avg rank is 85 and “now they face a fringe top 10 Texas offense.” Best O KU has faced is BYU and KU allowed them to be successful on 65% of their standard down passes. Ewers is not good on completion rate under pressure and he can be sacked - problem is that KU is not getting any sort of pressure. “I don’t see many stops here...I don’t see a path to getting Texas off the field very frequently.” Texas will want to get out early and then turn focus to OU.

Powers has upgraded Texas 2 pts since start of year. Defense front 7 and Ewers upgraded. Kansas has been upgraded, he probably did not give them enough credit before start of season and they upgraded 3 points.

BET BEST Season 4-0 and “beaten the market by about 3 points, but it can’t continue to be that easy.”
TCU -12 at home vs WVa. (I am now seeing -13 -115).

 

[bones]

Clay Travis Week #5
WEEK #4: 7-6-1
SEASON: 30-25-1

Clay Travis' Gambling Picks For College Football Week 5: Penn State, Georgia, And Yes, Colorado

Crazily, we are nearly halfway through the college football regular season for many teams out there. Yes, before September is over, many teams will

www.outkick.com

Utah @ OreSt UNDER 45.5
This is a bet on the Utah defense. It’s managed to take the air out of every game it has played this season.I don’t know why that would change, even on the road, against Oregon State. This game is going to be played in the mud and everyone who has the under will exult on Friday night when we cash our first winner of the week.

PennState -25.5 @ NWstrn
I’m finished betting against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are just flat out mauling their opponents. They’ve scored 30 or more in 11 straight games and last week’s game against Iowa was a complete and total beatdown. Iowa posted less than 100 total yards and only four first downs, that’s nearly impossible to do. Why would that change on the road against a Northwestern team that, I think, will struggle to score at all against Penn State. The Nittany Lions win 38-7.

Kansas +17 @ Texas
Quick question, did you know Kansas was 4-0 this year?I bet you didn’t. Granted the opposition has not been fierce, but there was a time when the Kansas football team would have lost against air. This is a big number, especially for a Jayhawks team that is catching Texas the week before the rivalry game against Oklahoma. I’m not saying the Longhorns will lose, but I am saying Texas fans may well be nervous in the fourth quarter of this one. Rock chalk coverhawk, give me Kansas.

Florida @ KY-2.5
The Wildcats are going to win for a third straight year. Really. Florida’s just not a good team and I don’t think Mark Stoops or his program is intimidated by the Gators at all. It should be an electric environment in Lexington — remember Kentucky didn’t beat the Gators from 1984 to 2018 so this series still has a lot of magic for Wildcat fans — and I just don’t think the Gators have much on the offensive side of the ball if you stop their rushing attack, which I think Kentucky will do. The end result?
Tap the veins, boys and girls, it’s my blood bank guarantee: Kentucky wins 27-14

A&M @ Ark +6.5 (Game is in Dallas)
This might be the craziest rivalry that no one talks about in college football. For most of these games, it’s basically been Texas A&M figuring out different ways to break the hearts of Arkansas fans. The Aggies have won 10 of the last 11 games in this series, including a brutal missed-field-goal finale last year. So what happens Saturday in Jerry’s World?I think it’s another field goal game. Which means, deep breath, all the value is on Arkansas as nearly a touchdown underdog. Woo pig for the cover.

Clemson @ Syracuse+7
Clemson just lost an incredibly tough game against its bitter rival and now it heads on the road against an undefeated Syracuse team that has played the Tigers tough.
The last two games of the series have been six-point and three-point wins for Clemson and don’t forget in 2018 Syracuse went on the road and won at Clemson.
A touchdown is too much here, Syracuse covers — and just might win outright.

USC @ Colorado +21.5
Everyone is jumping off the Colorado bandwagon this week, but I feel like the USC defensive performance on the road against Arizona State is being completely overlooked. Sure, Colorado might not be able to block anyone again this week, but the Buffaloes will play better at home and remember this game is kicking off at 9 a.m. west coast time. Surely, that will impact the Trojans body clocks at least a bit. If the defense has been awful already, why wouldn’t that be more the case earlier in the day? I’ve got Deion’s team covering and losing by 14.

Indiana @ Maryland -14
The great thing about gambling is sometimes you fall in love with a team that no one else pays attention to, like the Maryland Terrapins. The Terps are rolling over all competition and that continues Saturday when they rout an Indiana team that needed overtime to beat Akron. It turns out there’s three things Maryland knows — crab cakes, football and covering. The Terps win by 20+.

Georgia -14.5 @ Auburn
Now that we’ve entered the SEC schedule, I just don’t see Auburn able to score many points against elite defenses. And Georgia most definitely has an elite defense.
Georgia has won six in a row in this series and most of them haven’t been particularly close. I think that continues Saturday between the hedges where Georgia wins 35-14.

Michigan @ Nebraska +17.5
After two straight defeats to start the season, the Cornhuskers have righted the ship and won two straight at home. Now Michigan, who is 4-0 but hasn’t looked that impressive offensively, is on the road as a huge favorite. I just don’t see a ton of points being scored in this game and if I’m right then this number is way too high.
And let’s be honest, when am I ever wrong? The Big Red covers and loses by 10.

Mizzu @ Vandy +14
Yes, Mizzou is 4-0, but here are their margin of victories against FBS opponents: MTSU by four, Kansas State by three, Memphis by seven. And all of those were at home. Now you’re telling me the Tigers are going to go on the road and win by over two touchdowns against Vanderbilt? I just don’t see it happening. The Commodores +14 is the play.

LSU @ Ole Miss +2.5
I think Lane Kiffin’s Rebels win this game outright. But I love them as the home underdog. LSU couldn’t stop Arkansas at home and Ole Miss is recovering from a winnable game they let pass them by in Tuscaloosa. Last time these teams played in Oxford the Lane train won by 14. This time it’s closer, Ole Miss by seven, which means you cover by nearly ten points if you take the Rebels as the home underdog.

S Carolina +12.5 @ Tenny
I’ve stared at this line for over 24 hours now. I just don’t get it. Last year Tennessee gave up 63 points to Spencer Rattler’s Gamecocks and got blown out in Columbia, South Carolina. This year Spencer Rattler is back — he completed 16 straight passes against Mississippi State last week — and Tennessee hasn’t been that great on defense and you’re telling me the Vols are going to win by two touchdowns? I think Spencer Rattler is likely to pick apart this defense all over again. Remember South Carolina went down to Athens and dominated the Bulldogs in the first half and kept it close for the entire game. I get the revenge angle and the wild Neyland Stadium at night aspect of this game — which is why I think Tennessee finds a way to win — but I just don’t see needing to win by two touchdowns to cover. I’m on the Gamecocks with all these points. (By the way, this is one of these Vegas lines that is so terrifying I understand if you don’t bet it at all. I’d bet 90% of the bets here are going to be on South Carolina. Which means every site is going to need the Vols big. When that happens, Vegas doesn’t lose big very often. I’m just saying.)

N.D. @ Duke +5.5
The Fighting Irish just lost in the most heartbreaking fashion imaginable and now they have to go on the road for what should be, really, a raucous home crowd at Duke. The Blue Devils are hosting Gameday for football for the first time ever and I think they’ll be ripe to pull off yet another major home upset. Give me Duke plus the points and I think the Blue Devils win outright.

Bama @ Messy +15.5
If I believe that Alabama’s offense is not very good — and I do — and that Alabama will likely struggle on the road, which I do, why would I not leap on the chance to take the home Bulldogs plus over two touchdowns? I’m either going to look like a genius on this pick and it’s going to be a three-point game late in the fourth quarter or Alabama is going to win 42-3 and I’m going to look like a complete idiot. I don’t see any middle ground. Cowbells, clanga, let’s cover.

 

[wiseplayer]

Haven’t read all the posts in here but Stanford Steve took Army plus the points vs Cuse.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Haven’t read all the posts in here but Stanford Steve took Army plus the points vs Cuse.

Thanks, I'll update his score when I get time