He Hate Me
I hope everyone is treated the same
Carter 61.5
ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 7
- Thread starter TahoeLegend
- Start date
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
ESPN just showed Stanford Steve is 10-17-1
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yep. 1st time I’ve watched this show in 2 years. I went out super early and made all my plays so I could snuggle up with cover and my puppy, it all gloomy and cold out! Lol. I still have hardly paid it any attention as I rather blabber on here!! I did actually like the segment with the kid kicking fg for money. That was way better than those awful special interest pieces bout sad or uplifting shit I don’t want in my sports!!
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
He makes picks all week including on Gameday, Daily Wager, ESPN web page. Hard to keep up with it all
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Mate.
Those segments are the one little slab of life we have left. I guess it's like church but with a football twist. Losing Rinaldi was incredibly bad because I won't watch that wonk Fox show just hoping to catch his segment but McAfee might push me that way
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You like those? Man I can’t stand it, I got enough sad shit I don’t want to hear others sad shit when im trying to not think bout. Not like I don’t have empathy for them I just don’t wanna have to have that emotion on my football Saturday!! That why I keep my sad shit to a minimum when I’m here talking sports! I don’t want to be a bummer or think bout myself! There plenty of other time for that!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
We're different. Shedding a tear is healthy and rare for me, those segments make me feel human for a minute
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yeah I might shed a tear 13-14 times a year. Probably 15 when ISU gets punted from March Madness but that's usually anger and shot glass throwing, not tears
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I think that graphic just includes the games he picks on Gameday. He also makes picks on Daily Wager and College Football Live. Makes them on a podcast too, but I never know what those are
He made two additional picks on Gameday today, UAB and Iowa State. Full list of his picks:
Washington -3
North Carolina -3
Notre Dame -2x
Colorado -10x
BYU +6
UAB +9
Iowa State +5
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Anyone have any thoughts on the total on Washington/Oregon? Cloudy but no rain predicted during the game
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Marriage of football/pro wrestling/UFC and honestly the entertainment part of all of it is trying to take over the sport part of it
Most of us want sport. The entertainment part was cool a couple times a year but now it's run the gauntlet. Sucks.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Added BYU +6
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Added Florida +1x as other teaser team with Troy
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Interesting because I always thought he was pretty good but he’s is awful on ESPN Game Day
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
TravisClay Travis:
Clay Travis' Gambling Picks For College Football Week 7: Take Washington -2 In Biggest Game Of Weekend
Last week was rough, I felt like we were mostly right on several games we ended up losing: Missouri should have covered against LSU, the under should have hit in Notre Dame-Louisviwww.outkick.com
LAST WEEK: 7-9
SEASON: 43-43-1
Many of these lines are no longer available
MichiganState @ Rutgers -5.5 Under 40.5 LOSE WIN
The moment Michigan State made the indefensible decision to fire Mel Tucker the Spartan season was over. It’s sad, but true. The Spartans have lost by 34, 22, and 10 since Mel Tucker was fired and they’ve scored 7, 9, and 16 in those three games. Rutgers wins by a score of 24-7 and you hit the easy cover and the easy under for a double win.
A&M @ Tenny -3.5 UNDER 56.5 WIN WIN
It’s tough to gauge how Texas A&M will respond coming off the tough Alabama loss, but one thing I’m confident in is that both teams have legit front 7’s on defense.
I actually think that despite all the attention the Tennessee offensive attack has gotten that this year’s Tennessee team is better running the football and stopping the run than last year’s team was. But they don’t have the same downfield passing attack. As a result this feels like a defensive battle to me, not dissimilar to the game we just saw between the Aggies and the Tide. Give me the under here. But, also, Tennessee has had two weeks to get ready for this game and is playing at home. I think the Vols will be rested and play well and I’m just not sure A&M gets up big for this one. So I think Tennessee wins by a touchdown, something like 27-20 feels likely to me, boom a double gambling win.
Florida @ SoCarolina -2 LOSE
After two weeks to stew over the beatdown in Knoxville, I expect for Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks to show up well for the home crowd. And even though South Carolina is 2-3, the three losses have come to Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee, three teams that are a combined 16-1 on the season. Meanwhile the Gators, in my always humble opinion, just aren’t very good.Tap the veins boys and girls, it’s time for our first blood bank guarantee of the weekend, South Carolina, behind the home crowd, wins by a touchdown.
Oregon @ Washington -2 WIN
The biggest and best game of the weekend ends with Michael Penix, Jr. outdueling Bo Nix in a classic in Seattle. I can’t wait for this game and feel like the Huskies ultimately outlast the Ducks, 34-31, with the home crowd making all the difference. That will leave Washington as the only undefeated team in the Pac 12 by the time Saturday ends.
Illini @ MD -13.5 LOSE
Who loves betting on Maryland more than me? No one. Not even after our tough loss last weekend. Here’s the deal, Illinois can’t score and Maryland can, the Terps put us in the winner’s circle again by winning by 20.
Iowa @ Wisky UNDER 36.5 WIN
Remember last week when I told you that Purdue at Iowa was going to be incredibly ugly? This game may be uglier. It’s a snoozefest that Wisconsin wins 17-13.
And the only way you win is by playing the under.
Louisville @ Pitt +7.5 WIN
This is a bet made entirely based on college football history. How many times do you see a team come off an electric win at home, go on the road, and fail to perform anywhere near the same level? Almost always. I expect Louisville to struggle in this game, give me the Panthers to make it a field goal game and cover with ease.
Miami @ UNC -3.5 WIN
I know college kids have short memories, but I don’t see any way the Hurricanes don’t have a hangover from the way last week ended. Plus, North Carolina is 6-0 and almost no one is paying attention to them at all. Daddy Mack Brown, behind the expertise of Drake Maye, wins by 10.
Mizzu +2.5 @ KY OVER 52.5 WIN WIN
Tap the veins, boys and girls, it’s time for our second blood bank guarantee of the weekend, I absolutely love the over here. Mizzou can’t stop anyone and Kentucky is vulnerable against the pass, that means points rain down in the Bluegrass. But I also like Mizzou as the underdog in this one, because I think they’re the better team and win outright at Kentucky so give me the Tigers too. But even if you disagree with me on the line, be sure and take the over.
USC @ Notre Dame -2 & UNDER 61.5 WIN LOSE
Notre Dame drags every game into the mud and I think they do the same against Southern Cal. I know this is counter to many of our early season bets when we’ve hopped on the over in every USC game. But this one is different, Notre Dame bounces back from a poor performance at Louisville and wins a huge one at home, 31-28 on a last second field goal. And when that happens, you’ll win twice, on the line and the under.
WEEK 7: 9-4
SEASON: 52-47-1
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
BTB: WON their best bet - SEASON: 5-2
College Football Week 7 Picks and Predictions - Bet The Board Podcast
Todd Fuhrman, Payne, Brad Powers Preview College Football Week 7 and deliver Key Metrics, Matchups, Picks, Predictions for USC vs Notre Dame!www.bettheboardpodcast.com
My recall is they are 4- 2 this season, losing their last 2. But, if you look at each game they analyze they are pretty damn good, if not great, on many.
A&M @ Tenny -3.5/55.5
A&M lost 7 straight road games they say (wrong, A&M beat Arkansas September 30th). Vols won 12 straight home games.
A&M O line is poor and Vols D line should get to A&M QB, Johnson. Powers like Vol’s pass rush. The Vol push was good against a similar O line in So Carolina. Vols ranked as #5 D line pass rush by PFF. Vols sacks 22 times this year. Johnson QB counting numbers not comparable to Weigman. He’s been sacked 8 times in last 3 games. Bama held A&M to 67 yds running at 2 yards a carry average. Tenny D has an edge over A&M offense. A&M #88 in FBS in yards on early downs. Their rushing game not been good. A&M has allowed 101 QB pressures the 4th most in FBS. Powers is not impressed with Tenny 2dary. He still gives edge to Tenny D vs A&M offense.
Vols lead the SEC in rushing, averaging 230+ yds per game. Receivers are questionable with McCoy out for season. No 300 yard passing game this year. A&M been vulnerable to passing but not Vols’ offensive strength, they throw short. Milroe hurt A&M in long pass. Payne does not like Durkin, A&M D coordinator. Payne has concerns re QB Milton and his receivers going long. Milton is ranked QB #123 in deep passing and #109th in turnover worthy deep passing and adjusted accuracy in deep passing. A&M is outside top 100 in EPA per pass allowed. Only Squirrel White plays above replacement level for Vols receivers. “On paper” Vols need to win the passing battle to cover this spread and there are questions about their ability to do so. Vols off a bye and may be able to run on A&M after their physical game against Bama?
Powers has slightly downgraded both A&M and Vols since start of season. He mentions Milton for Vols and his “consistency issues” and A&M’s QB as some reasons for downgrades. He does like A&M’s D front. Both teams still in his Top 25 power rating.
Miami @ UNC -3.5, -4/57
Of course, Fuhrman mentions Miami’s screw ups on not taking the knee and then letting receiver get behind them. UNC 5-0 beating the Canes in 4 straight but three of those wins were by exactly 3 points. UNC scored 31+ in 5 straight games. Canes are 0-5 in ACC home games with Cristobal. Canes had season high 5 turnovers vs GaTech with only 3 prior the whole season. Canes 5-12 ATS with Cristobal. Van Dyke made bad decisions last game. UNC defense struggled against Appy State's balanced attack.
Powers still gives the edge in this game to Miami offense vs UNC defense. Miami yds per play, yds per game Top 10 and points per game Top 15. Cautions that three of the Miami games were against “suspect competition.” Van Dyke has looked good but last week made really bad decisions and he looked like Van Dyke 2022. Restrepo is certainly the major reason for passing game improvement, one of the top graded wide receivers in country. George and Young also give Miami big play threats. The RBs “been ok” and he prefers Parish. The Miami O line did not look as good last week re their push. UNC D is improved and a Top 40 unit per counting stats – but Powers “not there yet” in thinking they are an above average defense. He argues UNC facing Minnesota, Pitt and Syracuse offenses is not really impressive and App State was best offense they faced and UNC allowed 34 pts and almost 500 yards, 200+ rushing. UNC defense struggles on early downs and do not have great D rush rate. They have some good players in Gray, Echols and Rucker. Chizik recruited Huzzie at DB and he’s looked good. UNC’s improved defense will be tested.
UNC offense and Maye looked good vs Syracuse last week and Tez Walker being added showed immediate improvement for the offense. This is “easily best offense Miami has faced” and “easily the best defensive front UNC and Maye have faced.” This has to be a “Drake Maye game.” Lampkin is back on O line. UNC run game not looked good vs Minnesota and Pitt and now they face Miami’s front 7 and safety play which are “elite.” Miami allows only 28% run success rate and they are #1 in defensive line yds allowed. Payne is saying UNC needs to pass and Miami’s corners can be suspect. When you adjust for schedule he has Miami pass defense outside the Top 30. Tez Walker’s presence opens up all receivers for UNC and Maye can now take advantage of short throwing….Payne really thinks running on early downs will not work. He is also concerned re offensive line protecting if UNC runs w/o success then Miami D line can "pin their ears back" and get to Maye on 3rd downs. He thinks Maye can have success in passing if they essentially abandon early runs.
Bowling Green +4.5 @ Buffalo. WIN
Powers takes Bowling Green +4.5. BG is better in yds per play, yds per game, passing. Bowling Green has played the much tougher schedule. BG is “the superior team.” Buffalo has “had phony final scores this year,” cites Louisiana & CMU as examples. He is adamant in this pick and thinks they win outright. I have not kept track (guess we can go back and look) but Powers been good this year. I know he is 2-0 last 2 weeks. Last week he took OVER in ColState/Utah State and line moved against him by something like 2.5-3 poits and he still won. I tailed him for 2 Units at night after I had worst day and he won. I am tailing again.
Oregon vs Washington -3/67.5
First game since 2014 with 2 PAC 12 teams in Top 8. Last time Oregon defeated AZ 51-13. Washington upset #6 Oregon, a 12 point favorite, last year 37- 34 , Penix threw for 408 yds and Nix for 279 and 2 TDs. Oregon has won 7 of last 8 in Seattle. Oregon 15-3 ATS and straight up last 18 vs Huskies. Both team in TOP 3 in yards per game in nation. Huskies' Achilles heel is their penalties where they rank #130th out of 133…95 yards per game.
Oregon is balanced in top rankings for both run and pass. Payne thinks a battle here for betting line. Got down to -2.5 and Huskie $$ came in and we back at -3. “Washington has warts” but Oregon has “not played a soul.” Washington has had trouble on D front and when adjusted for schedule they are outside Top 100 in defensive yds allowed, havoc created, TFL & stuff rate. Ducks offensive line had questions but it is in TOP 25 in yd lines created, Top 15 in rushing success rate, Top 10 in EPA per rush. On paper looks “all Ducks, but I wonder and Huskies have had 2 weeks to prepare.” Payne: “To me Ducks offense is very much phone booth.” ADOT for Nix is 6.4, 1 yard lower than last year and out of 155 QBs Nix is #149th in ADOT. Huskies cannot allow Oregon to dink and dunk and have the Huskie offense on the sidelines.
Huskies and Penix get fast starts and Penix leads FBS in passing yards at nearly 400 per game. He is the only QB since 2000 with 70% completions and 300 yds in first 5 games of the season. Penix is17-1 at home going back to time at Indiana. Penix has not been getting sacked. Oregon best Defense that Huskies have faced, Powers still gives edge to Huskies offense. “I don’t see a lot of weaknesses, starting with play calling.” Evidently, their O coordinator was wanted by Saban. Penix is Heismann favorite #2 QBR…leads in a lot of categories and has great wide receivers and “3 legit TEs.” Huskies can also run – 60-40 pass-run mix. AZ was able to present a good defense and Penix had no TD passes. Oregon must pressure Penix and they have had success with 18 sacks and as #5 in country in defending pass…but questions who they have faced. Texas Tech had success agst Oregon with 456 yds and if Schough had not turned ball over 4 times then Oregon likely loses. Gives the edge to Huskies, but “more of an even match-up than other side of the ball.”
Powers has significant power ranking upgrades +4.5 for Oregon and +5 Huskies, both solidly in Top 10.
UCLA @ OregonState -3.5 -4/54.5 to 55.5
First time meeting as ranked opponents since 2001 when UCLA #12 defeated #19 Beavers 38-7 with Beavers' current head coach, Jonathan Smith, QBing the Beavers.
First time since 2007 that Beavers playing UCLA as higher rated team. First Bruin trip to Corvalis since 2015 when Rosen was starting QB. Bruins have lost 4 straight games, and 8 of 9, away from home against ranked teams. UCLA OVERS have been 'order of the day' when they take on ranked opponents. Beavers are 15-4 ATS since start of 2022. Beavers defense bad on road and better at home. UCLA has questions re QB Dante Moore in his 2d conference road start.
Payne: "Very straight forward to me. Beavers have to earn the right to force Dante Moore to beat them, for that to happen OreSt has to stop the run." The best offense Beavers have faced-Wazzu-created 2.4 yds per rush before 1st contact, and Beavers allowed 3.7 yds before contact against Cal (after Beavers had 2 weeks to prepare). Cal was succesful on nearly 70% of their runs. To get bullied at that rate by Cal is somewhat concerning. UCLA O line is better as run blockers than pass protectors (gave stats to support). UCLA offense in Top 30 in epa per rush. If Beavers can stop the run, "then it will be house of horrors for Dante Moore." Payne not sure Moore is definitely UCLA's best QB and there have been whispers he might leave if he did not get playing time. Moore has 'just not been good' against the tougher defenses he's faced. Even at home agst Wazzu it was a struggle - Moore just had a 48% completion rate from a clean pocket and a 62 Passer Rating with play action. Payne thinks Beavers get both starting corners back, Robinson and Cooper, who warmed up last week. Beavers can get to QB particulalry when at home. "To me this is very basic, its all about OreState getting UCLA in down and distance which forces Moore to be a factor." UCLA is outside the Top 70 in schedule adjusted passing success rate and outside the Top 75 in late down success. If you get Moore in 3rd and 5+ its a problem.
OreState coach Smith has called UCLA defense "dominant." DJU had good performane last week after 3 game slump. Beavers want to run with Damian Martinez who has become 22nd Beaver player to reach 1500 rushing yards and avging a program record of 6+ yds per carry. Powers thinks DJU can have success throwing on early downs. UCLA defense is #1 in country in yards per play allowed but Powers gives edge to Beavers offense. UCLA defense was dominant last week vs Wazzu. But, UCLA's conference opponents (utah and Wazzu) have not been balanced offensively. UCLA's defensive rush led by Latu is one of the best in college football. DJU performane last week was perhaps the "best of his career." Powers likes Martinez and Fenwick getting downhill. Loves Bolton on special teams for Beavers and likes Gould receiver and also the Beaver tight end. Some concerns about Beaver O line "as good as they are" and they will need to show this week. He gives edge to Beavers O vs UCLA D.
USC @ Notre Dame -3/61.5, 62-63
USC won 38-27 last year to end a 4 year loss streak to ND. Trojans have won 5 of last 6 when both teams are ranked. Irish have lost their last 8 against vs AP Top 10 USC teams going back to 1995. Betting Trojans blindly OVER going 13-1 of last 14 with average score over 79. Freeman is 6-2-1 against ranked opponents, taking last week into account. USC offensively leads FBS with nearly 52 points a game and 7 straight games of 40+, tying most consecutive games in school history, 521 yds per game. 8.4 yds per play and ruthless Red Zone TD efficiency. USC been flat last 2 weeks.
Powers: USC has given up some sacks and cannot take off plays vs Mills and Cross for ND. "That being said, Caleb playing like a Heismann trophy candidate." But, Caleb and USC has been sloppy/careless [I have felt the same way when I have watched them]. Powers like RB Marshawn Lloyd from Scary and the "multitude of weapons in receivers." "Any one of USC's top 6 receivers are better than any one of Notre Dames's top receivers." Powers thinks Branch returns on special teams for USC. Powers again worried about ND energy after their schedulke. ND is top 15 defense. No team avged 4 yards a carry in first 4 games , last 3 weeks 4.7, 4.7 and 4.8. "If you are running on empty you do not want to face USC." Powers think Cross is All American on ND D line and leads team in tackles - dominates up front. ND snap counts are up on D and their offense has not helped the ND defense who has started #115 in field position. Went over Ville starting fields - it was shocking when he gave the numbers. Powers says "keep in mind that ND conditioning coordinator quit in summer...and guy that took over is MAC level in experience. Is that going to be a factor?" Powers gives edge to USC offense. Powers has downgraded ND after last few weeks 2,5 points. Keep tabs on the forecast this week.
USC defense has missed tackles and gave stats. Neither ND offense or USC defense is in good form. Some variance with these two. 25% of ND offense plays vs Ville resulted in a negative play. You start to wonder what is left in tank, 8 games in 8 weeks. And, ND had mid-terms this week and ND players go to class. Duke pressured Hartmann on 54% drop backs 2 weeks ago. Hartmann held on to ball longer agst Duke than other opponents but ND had injured receivers. ND O line does do well in opening up rush...went over O line having to switch positions due to injury. ND has to consistently run against USC and Payne questions the ability to do it. USC is outside the top 80 in scheduled adjusted success vs the rush. outside top 100 in EPA per rush allowed. He says "get your best 5 up front and let Estime and Love go." USC has only had "a 31% pressure rate in last 3 games combined and that's something to think about." Maybe Hartmann have easier time passing than last 3 games? USC defense outside top 80 in early downs, so maybe ND run early and then pass. Payne thinks there is a path to success but questions re ND fatigue that needs answering. Monitor the weather - if game was sloppy and cold then it helps ND - they need to run with Estime and Love. ND now has artificial turf, not grass.
BEST BET: Michigan State +5.5 WIN vs Rutgers. Last 2 data points Sparty outgains MD and Iowa and MichState managed over 3 yds per rush before first contact against Iowa VTech ran agast Rutgers. Been a good bye week been good for Sparty per reports. Sparty can stop the run. Sparty not devulging their starting QB to make Rutgers prepare for all 3.
Powers won his Non-Power 5 best bet - don't know his season, but he's 3-0 last 3
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
Made a mistake. Travis was 8-5 Week #7
Season is: 51-48-1
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
WEEK 7: 7-3
SEASON: 41-32
