Week 4 discussion thread

D-Woww

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
I like to keep this separate from the What have we learned thread:




1:00 PM | (CBS) - Game played @London, England



1:00 PM



1:00 PM



1:00 PM



4:05 PM



4:25 PM



4:25 PM



8:30 PM | (NBC)





8:30 PM | (ESPN)


 
Like Buffalo+3 and ML

Teaser with Pitts/Indy
both tennessee and tb are on the 2nd road game in a row

Philly+5 and ML , SF looks like shit to me this year. Too many penalties, too many mistakes.

KC+4 and ML, if we get the same Pats team from week 3, KC should take this by DD

Those are just early thoughts, could change during the week.
 
NO is laying road beers again? JFC....HOW?

will this over/under be 60?

NO has owned the boys last few seasons, outside when they dropped one to em in the SB winning season.....
 
It shows it up there in Dwoww's post but just want to make sure everybody knew the Mia/Oak game is in London. Sometimes it can rain pretty heavy there. We'll need CTG's Manuk to let us know how the weather is doing.
 
Public v. Sharp predictions

Indy (Pub) / Tenn (Sharp) -- If Locker plays*

Pitt (Pub) / Tampa (Sharp) -- If Glennon plays*

SD (pub) / Jax (Sharp)

Atlanta (pub) / Minny (Sharp) -- I personally like Minny here.

New Orleans (pub) / Dallas (Sharp) -- Can't back Dallas w/ that D against Brees

Early money pouring in on SF...I'm guessing it's both pub and sharp. Philly in a bad spot and SF really needs a win to keep pace in the division, especially now w/ Zona's hot start.
 
cogenman said:
It shows it up there in Dwoww's post but just want to make sure everybody knew the Mia/Oak game is in London. Sometimes it can rain pretty heavy there. We'll need CTG's Manuk to let us know how the weather is doing.
Click to expand...

That one might not hit 30 points, let alone 40.
 
I don't see how the books can justify making the Lions -1 after that Jets performance on MNF and the Lions whooping of the Packers. Bettors are short-sighted, and I'd imagine the Lions will get all the money and that the books will need the Jets on Sunday. My guess is that sharps will wait/hope for +3 if the books are willing to offer it later in the week. I can't imagine this line staying put at -1.
 
Isn't there a historical trend to play against teams coming off a big win (I believe 30 points or more)? Atlanta fits the bill here.
 
I'll probably pull the trigger on TB once Glennon is announced starter. Steelers likely missing 2 LB's this week. They just signed Harrison out of retirement. Steelers on a short week, as well. I think TB will will be able to put enough points up to cover the 7.
 
[h=4]2014 NFL ATS Standings[/h][TABLE="width: 562"]
<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">[TR]
[TH]Team[/TH]
[TH]ATS[/TH]
[TH]Streak[/TH]
[TH]O/U[/TH]
[TH]Streak[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tfoot style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tfoot><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)[/TD]
[TD]3-0[/TD]
[TD]W3[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[TD]U3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]San Diego Chargers (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]3-0[/TD]
[TD]W3[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Arizona Cardinals (3-0)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[TD]U3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]3-0[/TD]
[TD]O3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Dallas Cowboys (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Baltimore Ravens (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Seattle Seahawks (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Detroit Lions (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Atlanta Falcons (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Carolina Panthers (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Buffalo Bills (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[TD]U3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Houston Texans (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]O2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Washington Redskins (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]O2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Indianapolis Colts (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]3-0[/TD]
[TD]O3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Cleveland Browns (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]3-0[/TD]
[TD]O3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Oakland Raiders (0-3)[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Chicago Bears (1-1)[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]New England Patriots (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]New Orleans Saints (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]New York Giants (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]St. Louis Rams (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Minnesota Vikings (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]L2[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[TD]U3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Tennessee Titans (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]L2[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[TD]U3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Miami Dolphins (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]L2[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]San Francisco 49ers (1-2)[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]L2[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]New York Jets (1-1)[/TD]
[TD]0-1-1[/TD]
[TD]P1[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Green Bay Packers (1-1)[/TD]
[TD]0-2-1[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]2-1[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Denver Broncos (2-1)[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[TD]L3[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[TD]L3[/TD]
[TD]3-0[/TD]
[TD]O3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[TD]L3[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
The game in London...the pitch/field ;) will be in great condition...remember ,this is much earlier in the year,its the end of summer.We have had these games deep in Nov and thats when the field and weather can be shitty.Unless it pisses down for a few days it will be a fast track...not that it might matter here.Im sure on some stat site you could narrow results to Wembley stadium? cause I dont think there is an under bias.
Shitty game aint it...
 
bet over 49 in chitown soon as i saw it (hope weather decent, didnt even check),, i expected 51.5 at least and would think it heads that direction. feels like we getting a bit of a discount on this thanx to packs slow offensive start. i guess that fine and all but they started against a bunch of strong defenses that get after the passer, bears aint no such thing. i guess the concern is it a good spot for both running games to gain some desperately needed momentum, i think they both will but dont think it hurts the scoring much. think we see 800+ yards of offense, there no way if bears give up the yards and red zone trips they gave geno does gb only score 19. gotta believe it takes at least 30 to win this thing..

also played skins-3 -130 in thu night gm,,, i agree dogs do some barking this week and i like plenty but not here.. i backed nyg last week and i do think they have shown improvement, however i also saw hou as a good spot for them with a shit turnover prone qb and a weak run defense. guess ill say it again but i really like skins front 7, yea the secondary is a mess but they do stop the run and have been really stingy in the red zone. i just dont think eli and co have improved to the point the passing gm can carry the load if jennings is limited to a sub par gm. eli still a turnover waiting to happen if you force him to be the focal point, not only that but i think the best way to expose skins back end is double moves and up top, gmen are all about dink and dunk short shit now which i think plays into skins hands on a few levels, they dont have to worry about getting beat deep all that often and they can keep everything in front of them and force a avg at best red zone offense to try and punch it in,. the way i see it this gm comes down to red zone and skins the better unit on both sides when they in close.. if rg3 was the qb figure line would have been a solid -3 and id be all over gmen.imo cousins worth a little more and books pricing them very similar still so gonna ride skins till i think it changes. plus home teams win the thu night shitfest like 68% of the time, the home team is superior on a neutral and this thu crap a big disadvantage to the road team..
 
theking said:
Why is the home team superior on a neutral? am I missing something?
Click to expand...

far superior offense, defenses pretty similar. i think skins compete for the div while gmen are a 7-9 type team..or simply put skins are 1.5points better in vegas power rankings coming in at 19th (which i think may be low) while gmen still ranked only 25th..
 
Last edited:
Gorgolon Lives said:
I'll probably pull the trigger on TB once Glennon is announced starter. Steelers likely missing 2 LB's this week. They just signed Harrison out of retirement. Steelers on a short week, as well. I think TB will will be able to put enough points up to cover the 7.
Click to expand...
Steelers played On Sunday so they're not on a short week.
 
Over 46 Washington and Giants tomorrow, both defenses are beat up, and a short week for me leads to overs in my opinion, no cited sources.
 
Crazy but I think the Giants have that 2007 feel about them which is scary as a Birds fan.

In saying that my radar hasn't been working so far this season so what do I know.

Carry on...
 
YoungGun11 said:
Over 46 Washington and Giants tomorrow, both defenses are beat up, and a short week for me leads to overs in my opinion, no cited sources.
Click to expand...

emkee said:
Crazy but I think the Giants have that 2007 feel about them which is scary as a Birds fan.

In saying that my radar hasn't been working so far this season so what do I know.

Carry on...
Click to expand...
Road teams been brutal on TNF so far.Cant remember if it was the same last year
 
Thursday night nfl is a stay away for me. Games have been crap and I don't want to be on the crap side.
Rather watch appy geo so tomorrow
 
Regarding Atlanta...

Road favorites coming off Thursday night wins of 10+ are 9-18-1 ATS next game.
 
Think Norv gets Patterson MUCH more involved this week. More routes specially for him and probably more runs and reverses. There's a lot of chatter around here about CP not being properly used and that he's the only legit breakaway weapon we have now. Should be an interesting game. Vikes D is much improved but the injuries on offense (and some on defense such as Greenway who is crucial) are piling up.
 
I could be very off here but I think tonights game is one of those classic ugly TNF games with not a lot of scoring. NYG's defense made cousins look like brandon weeden last year. the dude is good when he has time, but ny will apply the pressure. thinking htis is a 20-17 kind of game. but watch, ill be wrong and it will be a shootout
 
Generally agree with over especially with Hall out for the skins but don't forget what field this is played on. Been raining solid since last night and FedEx has awful turf even without the rain. Personally I think the wrong team is laying pts here. Giants by a TD
 
Crazy tonight's spread opened at Skins -5 even after Sunday's results and was bet down to -4 in 14 minutes.

Strong trends favoring NYG but that line could be telling.
 
My book is offering WASH -3 juiced to -130 LOL

Books realizing their line was off tonight. The 3 is the correct number. If you're holding a ticket with Giants at anything above that, you're sitting pretty.
 
Books wouldn't drop a line 2-3.5 points off on a nationally televised game (Greek opened at Skins -6.5). They have come along way since Superbowl XXXVI.

Lang on NYG for 40 dimes, wants y'all to buy the hook to 3.5
 
For me its skins or nothing, i don't believe the giants team is fixed now that they beat a Texans team decimated by injury. So far I'm only on the 1sth under
 
Many conflicting angles tonight. Taking 0-2 teams off their first win has been pretty profitable in recent times.
 
Giants subject to this trend...

Game 4 underdogs of more than 1 point are 45-15-3 ATS if they won their first game of the season the week prior.
 
Sure does Bones.

Thursday is a 'situation/trend negator' so staying away.

Gun to head - Giants.
 
Have come to the conclusion Thursday NFL is best avoided. Just an overall shitty product.
 
D-Woww said:
I could be very off here but I think tonights game is one of those classic ugly TNF games with not a lot of scoring. NYG's defense made cousins look like brandon weeden last year. the dude is good when he has time, but ny will apply the pressure. thinking htis is a 20-17 kind of game. but watch, ill be wrong and it will be a shootout
Click to expand...

i made it 24-20 but i agree gonna be kinda ugly with a lot of unsuccessful rushing attempts and pressure on the qbs from both fronts..
 
At what spot are Giants equal to skins that line suggest? Skins are far better offensively and defensively and they are equally bad on special teams.

Better rush offense, pass offense, run defense, pass defense only laying 3 at home. Sign me up large.
 
God bless you guys betting the She Men. That team is garbage, but then again, the Foreskins really aren't much better
 
I agree Dollaz and this seems like a huge overreaction to last week's performances. Plus I think we're seeing some shady %'s on this one. My guy is taking exclusive action on the G-Men. I am in NY though.
 
2daBank said:
far superior offense, defenses pretty similar. i think skins compete for the div while gmen are a 7-9 type team..or simply put skins are 1.5points better in vegas power rankings coming in at 19th (which i think may be low) while gmen still ranked only 25th..
Click to expand...

Where can I find Vegas power rankings?
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
Public v. Sharp predictions

Indy (Pub) / Tenn (Sharp) -- If Locker plays*

Pitt (Pub) / Tampa (Sharp) -- If Glennon plays*

SD (pub) / Jax (Sharp)

Atlanta (pub) / Minny (Sharp) -- I personally like Minny here.

New Orleans (pub) / Dallas (Sharp) -- Can't back Dallas w/ that D against Brees

Early money pouring in on SF...I'm guessing it's both pub and sharp. Philly in a bad spot and SF really needs a win to keep pace in the division, especially now w/ Zona's hot start.
Click to expand...

I still stand by this as we hit Friday. Though I have no idea why TB line is going up. Glennon is better than McCown. Doug Martin returns. Steelers D is in dire straights. The bet is TB, its just a matter of when to pick it.
 
O...and I played Philly at +4.5. Too many smart guys I know personally convinced me that SF is simply not a good ball club. The spot sucks for Philly, but getting the better team at over a FG seems like a joke really.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
I still stand by this as we hit Friday. Though I have no idea why TB line is going up. Glennon is better than McCown. Doug Martin returns. Steelers D is in dire straights. The bet is TB, its just a matter of when to pick it.
Click to expand...

We are really seeing eye to eye this week. My only mistake was taking the tits & bucs at +7.5 & not waiting. Gotta say tho Whitehurst scares me. I am thinking of buying off of that bet until we know Lockers status
 
D-Woww said:
We are really seeing eye to eye this week. My only mistake was taking the tits & bucs at +7.5 & not waiting. Gotta say tho Whitehurst scares me. I am thinking of buying off of that bet until we know Lockers status
Click to expand...

Locker is out IMO. Not official but everything I read says he wont play. I had the titans plus +7.5 but quickly bought off at -7.5. The Steelers money looks to square.
 
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