week 1 LVSC opening lines

I was really hoping for 2.5 with Rice as I don't like 4.5 as much, but still a solid lean for me at this point.

-SMU might be a popular play b/c of June Jones, but while I think the Mustangs will be improved (they were 1-11 LY so no where to go but up!), I don't see them having the athletes to be up and running in week 1 with the offense, since they are gonna have some major issues on the OL in terms of experience
-Chase Clement is another solid QB who should have a pretty impressive season numbers wise this year, as I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw for 500 in this one, as we all know Jones will be focused on the offense and not the defense
-SMU makes even Vandy look good when it comes to going on the road as they have lost something like 40 out of their last 45 on the road I think
-Also, I know they haven't won in Rice in like 20 years, so that is definitely something to take into consideration
-Main reason I like Rice is I don't think SMU will be able to keep up on the scoreboard and Rice actually returns some experience in their secondary so SMU won't be able to just put up points at will
-I see something like a 38-31 or 45-31 type of game and I would not be shocked to see the total set in the mid 70's for this one based on anticipation
-Would prefer Rice at 2.5 as I had the line around 6, but still kinda like em at 4.5.
-This one will probably come down to the QB position and I like Clement to get the job done since he is now a senior and will be much more comfortable running the spread than SMU's QB will be, at least in week 1
 
Though SMU will have a redshirt freshman starting at right guard he will not, it won't matter that much IMO. All the other starting OL have had significant playing time and Willis is plenty mobile to cover up some missed assignments.
 
rice is 4.5 not 7-14.

i think the line is pretty good. by straight power rating i make it slightly less but the matchup could be bad for smu and the fact its first game under new system. i watched this smu pass defense last year in several games , mos tnotably houston and texas tech and they were horrid. They are also a very small team. Rice can score and Dillard is an impossible matchup for smu. All that said, i think smu has recruited slightly better talent than rice has overall. tough game to call for me ..... likely staying away or going the dwightshrute route of looking for some value in the over if the total is set low ... which it wont be.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
you're god...you can be as greedy as you want
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:shake:

very good point

:tiphat:


smu/rice what does this total open up at? can this total be set high 70s? i mean everyone knows what a jones run an shoot type O can do. rice comin into this season wit one of tha best passin Os in tha nation an one of tha worst overall Ds. this game could get very wild wit point after point scored. im really wonderin where this game will open at total wise, i will bet jus about no matter where they set this shit it gets bet tha fuck up fast
 
vegaskyle said:
rice is 4.5 not 7-14.

i think the line is pretty good. by straight power rating i make it slightly less but the matchup could be bad for smu and the fact its first game under new system. i watched this smu pass defense last year in several games , mos tnotably houston and texas tech and they were horrid. They are also a very small team. Rice can score and Dillard is an impossible matchup for smu. All that said, i think smu has recruited slightly better talent than rice has overall. tough game to call for me ..... likely staying away or going the dwightshrute route of looking for some value in the over if the total is set low ... which it wont be.
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Apologize I mean to say 0-14. I can just see Rice up something like 45-34 with 00:45 to play and then June Jones and company put one in the endzone with under 10 seconds to go to get the backdoor
 
hello stanford, utah, florida, and l'ville

la tech just might beat miss state, but for some reason i thought that game was in starksville?

n'western should beat the 'cuse by more than 13, which makes that line fishy to me.

can't wait to see the total on w. mich and nebraska.

this thread=college football overload
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Apologize I mean to say 0-14. I can just see Rice up something like 45-34 with 00:45 to play and then June Jones and company put one in the endzone with under 10 seconds to go to get the backdoor
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could definitely see that.

tru -- i think you hit the nail on the head .... when the number is posted for the total it should go nothing but up .... is kind of a rainy time of the year for houston though so be careful with that as far as betting the over quickly and hoping for either the best of it or a middle chance. Rains alot there.
 
carolinablue said:
I was really hoping for 2.5 with Rice as I don't like 4.5 as much, but still a solid lean for me at this point.

-SMU might be a popular play b/c of June Jones, but while I think the Mustangs will be improved (they were 1-11 LY so no where to go but up!), I don't see them having the athletes to be up and running in week 1 with the offense, since they are gonna have some major issues on the OL in terms of experience
-Chase Clement is another solid QB who should have a pretty impressive season numbers wise this year, as I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw for 500 in this one, as we all know Jones will be focused on the offense and not the defense
-SMU makes even Vandy look good when it comes to going on the road as they have lost something like 40 out of their last 45 on the road I think
-Also, I know they haven't won in Rice in like 20 years, so that is definitely something to take into consideration
-Main reason I like Rice is I don't think SMU will be able to keep up on the scoreboard and Rice actually returns some experience in their secondary so SMU won't be able to just put up points at will
-I see something like a 38-31 or 45-31 type of game and I would not be shocked to see the total set in the mid 70's for this one based on anticipation
-Would prefer Rice at 2.5 as I had the line around 6, but still kinda like em at 4.5.
-This one will probably come down to the QB position and I like Clement to get the job done since he is now a senior and will be much more comfortable running the spread than SMU's QB will be, at least in week 1
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Great points ... have to say i have less of a feel for this game than most .... prolly staying away.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Though SMU will have a redshirt freshman starting at right guard he will not, it won't matter that much IMO. All the other starting OL have had significant playing time and Willis is plenty mobile to cover up some missed assignments.
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The best way for a team to defend the spread offense is to get to the QB and I think that even though they have 3 starters back (the 4th starter was actually a starter at tight end last year I think), I think it will take them a while to gel with regard to pass protection in the new system, hence the inexperience angle.

I hear what you are saying about Willis, since I know he is solid when it comes to scrambling and creating something out of nothing, but that also leads to sloppy play sometimes as evidenced by the 12 fumbles and 19 INTs SMU had last season. I definitely wouldn't count these guys out though, just think it is gonna take more than fall practice (I don't count spring since Willis was out) to gel as a team under Jones. With that said, these teams are almost mirror images of each other in a lot of ways, so I like taking my chances with the more experienced team in what should be a fun game to watch for all us true degenerates. Just hope it is on somewhere.
 
vegaskyle said:
could definitely see that.

tru -- i think you hit the nail on the head .... when the number is posted for the total it should go nothing but up .... is kind of a rainy time of the year for houston though so be careful with that as far as betting the over quickly and hoping for either the best of it or a middle chance. Rains alot there.
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Yeah, I could definitely see that happening as well. Could definitely be one of those games that you are counting down the seconds and screaming at the tv for SMU to just give up and stop trying to score in the waning seconds haha.
 
Regarding the Utah vs Michigan game, I just pray that it opens up with a number around 45. I doubt it will but maybe it will get bet up to 42-44 based off perception of RR being an offensive genius
 
It looks like an under on paper , for sure dwight. the offenses should be just good enough to get some first downs which is perfect.

7 seems like too many to me ... thought 2.5 , 3 .. at most 4.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
HAHA I'd probably be too scared to bet against CB. The only way I think I end up on this one is if I can get an opening number under 70
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Good stuff haha. Off the subject, but do you get sports talk 610am where you are at. I hear them talking about their new upstate affiliate all the time, so just wondering if it hit your part of Greenville.
 
why should i think that michigan gets a two score win ???

veteran utah team shouldnt be intimidated. scrambling qb which is the exact type that gave michigan fits last year. solid defense that jpicks has been pimping all spring.
 
Yeah I agree. I can actually see Utah scoring and I don't think they will be at all intimidated by the environment. The only problem is Utah has opened with road games against very mediocre teams each of the last 2 years and been beaten soundly each time. That's the main thing that scares me off of Utah. However with Brian Johnson being a 14th year senior, he should finally be ready to get this team over that hump
 
new systems in michigan , lost all the talent off the offense including stud ol , qb and rb. ...... why a td fav ???? and they know that people are going to be betting utah there ...... they know something i dont ?
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Yeah I agree. I can actually see Utah scoring and I don't think they will be at all intimidated by the environment. The only problem is Utah has opened with road games against very mediocre teams each of the last 2 years and been beaten soundly each time. That's the main thing that scares me off of Utah. However with Brian Johnson being a 14th year senior, he should finally be ready to get this team over that hump
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They were doing ok against a really good oregon state team last year before johnson did his yearly injury thing.
 
carolinablue said:
Good stuff haha. Off the subject, but do you get sports talk 610am where you are at. I hear them talking about their new upstate affiliate all the time, so just wondering if it hit your part of Greenville.
Click to expand...

You know I'm not sure. I listen to 104.9 here which is about 3 hours of homer Clemson stuff plus Cowherd and Rome. I'll check and see if I get 610 tomorrow and let you know
 
vegaskyle said:
new systems in michigan , lost all the talent off the offense including stud ol , qb and rb. ...... why a td fav ???? and they know that people are going to be betting utah there ...... they know something i dont ?
Click to expand...


very curious line for me too, considering i expect more than 65% of people to be on Utah here.


id leaned with the under all spring, im not getting off that thought until i see a number


if you are utah, how do you exactly prepare to defend mich? go watch wvu tapes of pat white? that certainly is not the answer since mich has no pat white.
 
love Wisky laying 28 against Akron

Kent + 12 in Cleveland against BC

SC -13 night game at home against NC STATE
 
Yeah good point VK. Initially I certainly like Utah as there are just so many questions on the Michigan offense
 
scrambling qb which is the exact type that gave michigan fits last year.
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Not Tebow in the bowl game. I agree the line is high, but I don't know if I can back the Utes in the Big House on opening weekend.
 
should be a lot of discussion about this particular game as we have a lot of michigan guys in the know about this program and jpicks and others that know this utah team pretty well. i have utah winning the mwc , which isnt the big ten but if you could catch michigan at any time this year , wouldnt the opener be the spot ?
 
vegaskyle said:
It looks like an under on paper , for sure dwight. the offenses should be just good enough to get some first downs which is perfect.

7 seems like too many to me ... thought 2.5 , 3 .. at most 4.
Click to expand...


Utah +7 seems interesting, especially after talking to my friends back in the Ann Arbor area (the great thing about moving around so much is that you meet contacts/degenerates in a bunch of different states haha). Obviously the pieces of the puzzle aren't in place for RR this year, as he wants his own breed of guys out there, so this is a transition year of sorts for UM.

Also, not sure what will happen with the whole Kevin Grady situation (driving with a 0.28 wow), as RR may look to make an example of him, or he may look at it as an opportunity to help him move towards redemption. Not sure if you guys have already discussed it, but figured it was at least somewhat relevant since he apparently was looking good this spring, coming off his injury from last year.

This game will probably be a pass for me, but if I was gonna play a dog in week 1, this would be a potential, along with one or two others like maybe WMU for example. Who am I kidding, I am not gonna play any dogs haha.
 
lets not forget about the Big House factor....pretty intimidating...fans should be wild (by their standards) for Rich Rods first game....Utah traveling across the nation....

just thoughts
 
Blue_Chip said:
Not Tebow in the bowl game. I agree the line is high, but I don't know if I can back the Utes in the Big House on opening weekend.
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how hurt was tebow though ?????????????


i hear ya though .... i was staying away at 3 or 4 ... but this 7 would be too tempting to not take a shot on it. with everyone liking it to be low scoring it is a big 7 as well.
 
I can't even think of RR never coaching a spread type QB. At WVU he had Rasheed Marshall and Pat White. At Clemson he had Dantzler. At Tulane he coached Shawn King
 
Sorry finally back. Actually had to do some work while working. Looks like I missed a few but came back just in time. Liking Utah a lot in this spot, espcecially catching the TD. Same concerns as all you. New system, lost a lot of talent. Michigan D should be very good though. Thats the thing. Can Utah score enough points to win?
 
Blue_Chip said:
Why? I think the public will still play the Wolverines here. Sure UM lost alot, but I do not think the public will give Utah much credit.
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hope so .... if its seven though , i think i have to lock in early unless i am pretty sure its moving to seven and a half.
 
have to figure that michigan is going to be heavy run based and utah is pretty solid vs the run as well.

concern would be navy success against utah in the bowl game , not to bring up a moose game or anything for some of you..
 
if nothing else on the utah/mich lets move on to the next on the list .... syracuse at northwestern , wildcats -12.
 
Northwestern should put up a shit load of points in this one. Thats my first thought
 
Here's a good list of things to ponder about Michigan football in 2008, taken from the local paper back in Detroit. Kinda wordy, but definitely a good read about the upcoming season.

1. Is Michigan ready for the Rich Rodriguez era?
Well, ready or not, it's here. The decades-long baton passing from Bo Schembechler to Gary Moeller to Lloyd Carr is over, and there's a new guy in town, just as Schembechler was in 1969. Transitions take time, but Rodriguez is not a patient man -- he has said on more than one occasion he likes winning too much. And it appears that things, like the newfangled approach to conditioning, are on the fast track at Michigan.

2. Is Mike Barwis the real deal?
Barwis is the new strength and conditioning coach and is, as Rodriguez has joked, attached at the hip with Rodriguez. Rodriguez is all about the Xs and Os of his spread offense, but Barwis is the brawn and speed behind it. His enthusiasm about fitness is contagious, and the players, while they have jokingly complained about the amount of running (well, maybe they weren't joking), seem to have bought in to the system. Already they look leaner, and the goal is that by the fourth quarter, the Wolverines look as fresh as they did when they first ran onto the field.

3. What in the world will Michigan do at quarterback?
That's the biggie. The last decade and a half, the quarterbacks have been mostly a known commodity. There have been preseason controversies, but you pretty much had a feel for the direction of the position. Now, with Rodriguez's departure from Michigan's tradition pro-style offense to his spread, the dynamic has changed. Is anyone equipped to make that offense hum? Steven Threet is the odds-on favorite to win the starting job, but Nick Sheridan, a walk-on, is right there, and freshman Justin Feagin will get a shot.

4. Are there any difference-makers at running back?
With Mike Hart no longer in the Michigan backfield, the assumption is Brandon Minor will take the reins. Now that Kevin Grady is embroiled in legal issues following his arrest last week for driving under the influence, and his status with the team remains unknown, Carlos Brown should find himself in the spotlight more. Brown is the wild card in this offense. Rodriguez didn't mask his disappointment when Brown suffered an injury and missed spring practice. He likes Brown's versatility at tailback, receiver and quarterback. Meanwhile, freshman Sam McGuffie might have something to prove this fall.

5. What about the opener with Utah?
The Utes should not be taken lightly. No, that is not some vague reference to last year's opener against Appalachian State, but clearly, Rodriguez needs to keep this team focused for his debut. Utah will run the spread offense, and if quarterback Brian Johnson remains healthy (his right shoulder has been an issue and required surgery last February), he's expected to work wonders. The Utes' defense is limping a bit, having lost five starters, but the secondary -- Utah led the nation in pass efficiency defense last year -- is its strength.

6. Do miracles happen in Columbus?
Since Rodriguez is the first "new" coach at Michigan since Schembechler, many have drawn comparisons between the two men and their transitions to Ann Arbor. Michigan fans would love to see Rodriguez have a similar result to Schembechler in his first coaching experience against archrival Ohio State. In 1969, the Buckeyes were ranked No. 1 and riding a 22-game winning streak, when the Wolverines pulled the unforgettable upset at Michigan Stadium. Rodriguez has a slightly different task, considering the game is at Ohio Stadium on Nov. 22. The Buckeyes also have Heisman Trophy candidate tailback Beanie Wells and punishing linebacker James Laurinaitis. The countdown has begun.

7. What's a reasonable expectation for this season?
ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit already has weighed in and believes the Wolverines will go 6-6. Has he checked out the Big Ten lately? Based on that alone, Michigan might sneak in another victory or two. It might take Michigan several games to find its offensive groove, so believing that the Wolverines' defense will be enough to keep them in games and assuming the team's overall conditioning will make them a factor through the fourth quarter, perhaps 7-5 or 8-4 predictions are in order. Then again, some of us (who, me?) thought Michigan would lose only one game last year.

8. Which games have been circled as must-wins?
Ask the Wolverines and the coaches, and of course they will say all of them. Starting off with a victory against Utah has to be the focus. There's no doubt the players are looking forward to playing at Notre Dame. You can bet they've heard the quote from Charlie Weis a few times -- the one in which he says, speaking to fans, "To hell with Michigan." Other highlights of the schedule are at Penn State, against Michigan State at Michigan Stadium, and, of course, against Ohio State in Columbus. One game Michigan definitely should not overlook -- at home against Illinois on Oct. 4.

9. The offense is young and inexperienced, so what's the strength of the team?
Defense, defense, defense, and there's nothing wrong with that. Four starters return to the defensive line, the two starting corners are back, but safety and linebacker have taken a few hits. Still, the defense will be relied upon to keep the Wolverines in games, particularly early in the season.

10. Aren't there more questions?
Of course. Can Michigan avoid the injury bug? (Remember the impact of the injuries to Chad Henne and Hart last season?) Which freshmen will make immediate impacts? (Any listed as offensive linemen, receiver Darryl Stonum and McGuffie, to name a few.) How's that road uniform going to look? (Who cares?) The bottom line is there are a lot of questions yet to be answered, but it sure is fun knowing we're going to get some answers soon. Now enjoy those College Football Season Is Coming Soon fireworks and don't indulge in too many hot dogs and baked beans.
<!--endclickprintinclude--><!-- EDITORIAL: end body of the story -->
 
YesSir said:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/teams/schedule?teamId=254&year=2006

Here is Utah's schedules for the last 5 years....They have not really had that experience of playing at a place like this...

Lets not forget about other things that could effect this game (besides talent)
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good point . IT HAS to be a concern. they did show up at louisville last year , and played better than score indicates year before at ucla , and their bowl record , which are away from home , has been pretty impressive as well.
 
Im still trying to figure out how Cuse beat the Ville last year. Anyone have an answer to that yet. Bacher should be able to put up 350-400 through the air and if that doesnt work Sutton could run for 200 but no matter what they should be able to put up 500 of total yards. I think this total will be quite large so dont know what to think about that but lean Wildcats here
 
I really like NW in this situation. Syracuse returns 7-7 starters but that's not necessarily a good thing. I think Sutton is going to have a huge game here against a defense that gave up 208 rushing a game last season. I wouldn't be surprised if NW won 7 games this year and if Syracuse again won 2 games. I have to lean -12
 
I could see NU starting off 5-1. Could be a decent team to back eary on in the season. Could see some low numbers that I think they will be able to cover
 
I honestly think NW could cover this game if they handed off to Sutton 75 times and never threw a pass
 
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