RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yup with a new offense... freshman qb ... just seems unlikely that they score here.
week 1 LVSC opening lines
- Thread starter tru
- Start date
yup with a new offense... freshman qb ... just seems unlikely that they score here.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Man, it seems like I keep posting in the wrong LVSC thread haha. I had some thoughts on the opens but I think they are in the old thread, but open to discussing whatever you guys want.
Anyway, at first glance, here are my initial leans. Most of my thoughts are in one of these threads somewhere, but will be happy to answer any questions if you guys have any.
RICE
FLORIDA
MIAMI OHIO
TEMPLE
TEXAS
KSU
KANSAS
Anyway, at first glance, here are my initial leans. Most of my thoughts are in one of these threads somewhere, but will be happy to answer any questions if you guys have any.
RICE
FLORIDA
MIAMI OHIO
TEMPLE
TEXAS
KSU
KANSAS
S
signalcaller
Guest
Kind of OT here but where do you have Wake finishing in the ACC kyle. I think they have a legit shot. Really am a fan of this team.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
alright we talked about miami ohio earlier ... care to share your thoughts there ?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
From a power rating standpoint i only have clemson and vtech ahead of them. not sure how wakes schedule pans out for them though. it doesnt look easy. I am also high on unc and maryland. i think the acc is most improved conference year over year ( just ahead of mac )
S
signalcaller
Guest
This next game really intrigues me. Oregon St at Stanford. Conference game right off the bat
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I know a bunch of us made lines for this game similarly and ranged from pickem to stanford -1.5 or so ... i was a bit shocked by this line. i am looking hard at the home doggie
tru
Friend of CTG
wow how do u like layin that much chalk? 4 outa those 7 are huge favorites.
florida -27
texas -26
kansas -37
ksu -25
jus wonderin whats value to u to lay those numbers? do u have fl as a 35 point fave or what? im more tha dog bettor in all sports, jus want to see ur insight on these huge faves week 1
tru
Friend of CTG
love stanford in this spot. hopefully by tha time it hits offshore we see a higher line for more dog value for us
:tiphat:
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Here are some topline thoughts as I don't have any stats or mags or anything here to reference, so I might miss a few things here and there...
Based on what I saw and heard last year while living in Ohio, I think the Miami OH DL and LB corps are gonna have a field day against Vandy. The Redhawks have one LB that is a beast and would probably be a household name if he was at a bigger school (don't know his name off hand) and I think the young Vandy OL is gonna have a rough go of it as they will experience some serious growing pains in this one.
We all know that points are gonna be tough to come by in this one, so I think turnovers will make the difference, and I see Miami Ohio having the defense to create miscues that will lead to points, while Vandy will be lucky to get 14 on the board in this one. Give me the home team at less than a FG in this type of matchup that could end up in the 16-10 range or so. The fact that Vandy is in the SEC is a bonus, as they are one of the few SEC teams that a team like Miami OH would have a legit shot to beat, plus we all know that Vandy will never be mistaken for Hawk and Animal ("Road Warriors" for all you non wrestling fans out there haha). Anything 2.5 or less is a solid play IMO, so just hoping it stays under 3 since I expect the Redhawks to be a popular play for many in week 1.
S
signalcaller
Guest
Really have a lean toward the home dog here. Think Harbaugh turns it around and that it starts this year. Although they dont have a QB named they have some good options and if nothing else great depth. Looks like Pritchard is the favorite but I think that Forcier gets the starting job. Hes a multi dimensional guy and can make plays with his feet if needed. Pritchard wasnt really effective last year when he got the chance and in the spring game he sucked as well only going 12 for 28. They return 9 guys on the other side of the ball. The key is they return their top 2 LB and 5 guys with starting experience on the Dline. Which should no doubt help their running stats. McNally is a good player, who could make the jump to a great player this year in the secondary. He should be able to anchor the pass defense.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
oregon state was number 1 against the run last year inthe whole nation .... but lose their entire front seven !! They lose some talent on the offensive line but that is mitigated by getting future nfl starter perry back from injury. they lose their best receivers from last year but that is mitigated by getting stroughter back from "insanity". should take a game or two for the beavers to get situated defensively and stanford returns most of the core of their team. pritchard should be better as well.
S
signalcaller
Guest
LOL looks like we all like Stanford here. Love to hear that, as this is probably the game that popped out at me right away as to a game I thought looked good. Actually think Stanford can have a good year this year. Best case scenario I could see them winning 6 games.
S
signalcaller
Guest
Doesnt it seem that Stroughter has been around since like 2002. He gets the Reggie Ball award this year for the player who seems like he has been in college for like 6 years
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
good points all. i am not sure this line moves over a field goal unless it just gets a lot of sharp money. look at how mac lines moved last year in ooc games and it seemed to pay to wait if you liked the mac side.
i especially like your point about the turnovers. makes a lot of sense to me.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I play any game that is above variance of the line that I create, so the short answer to the question is yes all of these are based on value vs the line I have for the games. For example, my typical variance typically lies between 3 to 5 depending on a number of factors. I have Kansas at -42 so if the line opens at -37, it will be a play no doubt about it. I have Florida at -28.5 so it wouldn't be a play right now b/c it is too close to my line, but included it on my leans list because guys usually want to know which big favs are in the consideration set for me, vs those I won't touch. KSU I have -27.5 so again close but not quite there yet. Not as excited about them, because they have some unanswered questions, so that play is more one against NT than for KSU and I usually don't end up pulling the trigger on those types of plays. Texas -28.5, same situation as KSU. Out of the huge favs, the only one that would be definitely a play would be Kansas as I would play it at anything under 40 most likely, barring something crazy in fall practice going down.
Those guys who have known me here and there for the last 5 or 6 years can attest that there are three things you can count on with carolinablue and those are 1) playing the chalk week in and week out 2) playing and consistenly winning under the radar games most people don't touch and 3) making a solid profit year in and year out. Definitely wouldn't recommend the big chalk route for most, but week in and week out, huge chalk covers, its just a matter of picking the right games, as we tend to only focus on those that lose, but forget about all the ones that cover every week. That's where I make all my cash really.
Sorry for the long winded answer, but hope that helps at least some.
S
signalcaller
Guest
Alright for me though its going to be a play on Stanford with the points. Feel strong about this one. Dont think Ill need them.
S
signalcaller
Guest
I know nothing about this one to be honest so I would love to hear yours or others thoughts on this one. CB your usually great with these small games. You have any thoughts on this one
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
carolinablue
College Football Guru
You guys know I love the Sunbelt as watching and researching all those 7pm games on gameplan made me a ton of money the last few years, but I am staying far away from this one, as there are too many question marks for me on both sides. I am gonna wait a couple weeks into the season before I jump into the deadly sunbelt waters this year.
S
signalcaller
Guest
Well thats all I need to know about that one. Staying off this one as well then
S
signalcaller
Guest
Dinner break VK lol?
utep/buffalo - no bet. utep better team imo, but that's a hell of a travel from texas to buffalo (almost 2,000mi). i don't think the look ahead factor plays a big role here. not enough data to reach a play on either
vandy/miami oh - under. i like sec dog versus mediocre mac team, but we're talking about the worst sec team hands down. i will be looking for the under, but i think the linemakers are too, so i expect low to mid 40s as the set total.
ncst/scar - no bet. spurrier's boys should spank some ass, but laying dd to an in-state school isn't cool when the in-state school is decent like nc state; we're not talking about a lsu vs ulm or lsu vs ull here. under lean here, but thinking scar has a better than average shot at covering a nearly 2 td spread, i can't take the under.
oregon st/stanford - like stanford catching five at home. maybe a little ml dog play.
troy/mtsu - tough to call. i think troy is the better team, but it is tough to predict a season opener conference road fave.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
A few thoughts on Temple vs Army to prep the discussion for when VK gets back..
-This is one of my early leans as I like it at anything under 6.
-Adam DiMichele is a solid QB who had them rolling along pretty good last year, including an unheard of 3 game win streak before he broke his leg and they limped home losing 3 out of 4
-I expect DiMichele to throw for about 300+ against the sieve like Army pass defense as they are gonna get torched big time IMO
-Temple is returning all 22 starters so I expect them to go for the jugular when they get up this year as they have guys who now understand how to finish games and play a full 60 mins
-Temple should have the advantage over Army in the trenches and I expect Army will be frustrated early and often as they experiment with a few different looks on offense
-I expect Temple to get to the QB frequently, leading to a few turnovers and a short field for the Owls to work with
-I know Temple lost to Army by 16 LY but that is deceiving b/c they dominated every facet except for on the scoreboard (which is what counts in the end of course, but that game was weird how it played out)
-Golden is a solid coach, and I look for him to force Army to pass, since they will probably have an inexperienced QB under center to start the season
-I know Temple will be a popular play, so I plan to get on this one as soon as it opens at the Greek in a few weeks
-This is one of my early leans as I like it at anything under 6.
-Adam DiMichele is a solid QB who had them rolling along pretty good last year, including an unheard of 3 game win streak before he broke his leg and they limped home losing 3 out of 4
-I expect DiMichele to throw for about 300+ against the sieve like Army pass defense as they are gonna get torched big time IMO
-Temple is returning all 22 starters so I expect them to go for the jugular when they get up this year as they have guys who now understand how to finish games and play a full 60 mins
-Temple should have the advantage over Army in the trenches and I expect Army will be frustrated early and often as they experiment with a few different looks on offense
-I expect Temple to get to the QB frequently, leading to a few turnovers and a short field for the Owls to work with
-I know Temple lost to Army by 16 LY but that is deceiving b/c they dominated every facet except for on the scoreboard (which is what counts in the end of course, but that game was weird how it played out)
-Golden is a solid coach, and I look for him to force Army to pass, since they will probably have an inexperienced QB under center to start the season
-I know Temple will be a popular play, so I plan to get on this one as soon as it opens at the Greek in a few weeks
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
-I know Temple lost to Army by 16 LY but that is deceiving b/c they dominated every facet except for on the scoreboard (which is what counts in the end of course, but that game was weird how it played out)
if i am not mistaken , army had two kick returns for td and one fumble recovery for td. temple had a 25-14 fd edge ( some of this is consecutive possessions , hard for army to get first downs when the kick returner is tanding in the end zone ) and 130 or so more yards of offense. Army is supposedly going to go to more of an option look on offense and temple has seen a ton of option lately. navy twice and ohio once ... or 3 times in their last 13 games.... a lot more than most teams see it and they return the whole defense. new offense for army, major revenge for temple , 22 returning starters for temple vs 8 returning starters for army , major difference in my power ratings, just way too much for me to love here with temple.
Agree with cb , best to get this bet in early as possible.
if i am not mistaken , army had two kick returns for td and one fumble recovery for td. temple had a 25-14 fd edge ( some of this is consecutive possessions , hard for army to get first downs when the kick returner is tanding in the end zone ) and 130 or so more yards of offense. Army is supposedly going to go to more of an option look on offense and temple has seen a ton of option lately. navy twice and ohio once ... or 3 times in their last 13 games.... a lot more than most teams see it and they return the whole defense. new offense for army, major revenge for temple , 22 returning starters for temple vs 8 returning starters for army , major difference in my power ratings, just way too much for me to love here with temple.
Agree with cb , best to get this bet in early as possible.
In state?? North Carolina and South Carolina are two different states. It is definitely a border wars type game though
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Thanks for the feedback on the Temple thoughts. Wasn't sure if anyone was still around or not. Good stuff, definitely glad to contribute where I can.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Temple and Kansas are my top 2 leans right now with Rice and Miami OH in batch #2, followed by Texas, KSU, and Florida in batch 3.
tru
Friend of CTG
nodoubt i will be on tha ML also if im able to get a close number or even better
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
speaking of rice ..... minus 4.5 hosting june jones and the SMU.
if anyone wants to comment about previously discussed games of course feel free.
tru
Friend of CTG
thanks. yeah if tha spread in that stanford game stays tha same tha ML will be very close to tha same on game day, really hope it walks more to tha dogs favor an we see even more value in stanford. right now almost a 1-2 payout on tha stanford ml. +180 id love to see +200 or better gameday, but i cant be too greedy i guess
Jones is going to have some fun with Willis and Sanders at SMU. I really think they are a team who is going to score some points this year. However, once again they are going to have to score 40+ to win. They can't set the SMU vs. Rice total high enough IMO. I will likely play anything less than 70 on the over here. Its a tough game for me to take a side on with JJ in his first game as the head coach. SMU will be much improved but will a spring and a fall practice session have them improved enough to win on the road in game 1. I also don't like playing sides of 7-14 in games like this b/c it has backdoor for SMU written all over it.
