Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
And yet you are considering betting them here. :hang:
Speaks volumes about your opinion of UNLV.
week 1 LVSC opening lines
- Thread starter tru
- Start date
And yet you are considering betting them here. :hang:
Speaks volumes about your opinion of UNLV.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
only went back as far as 2002 but unlv is 0-4 ats as a dd favorite and lost two of those games straight up. not a trend guy but not a brave guy either.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Understandable.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well , ahve to like him more with the new offense i guess. jury is still out on him for me but i like him. not going to lie , i am very high on this auburn team. This is an interesting game too.
ulm is NOT sneaking up on auburn. Auburn fans have been making fun of tide fans the entire offseason over warhawk upset over bama last year. the team seemed to take to the spread offense as they dominated the bowl game against a pretty good clemson team. the game went to ot but check out the boxscore there if you dont believe me. plus i watched it.
anyway, i am not a fan of laying huge numbers , i dont think i laid a number this big all of last year ... but i am considering it for this one. i hgihly doubt that i play it ... again because i dont like laying huge numbers ... but if you think this is a sleepwalk game for auburn you are wrong folks. if you are betting ulm , make sure it is because you cap it out that way on the field ... motivation should not be an issue.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Underdog moneylines hit at an alarmingly low rate in weeks 1 and 2, just terrible. And its been that way for a few years now consistently and don't see any real reason it will change, this is largely the time when good teams get their free wins against bad teams that get their paychecks for showing up to the game. Because of this I won't be on many/any MLDs in the first couple weeks, but otherwise ULL would be a strong candidate for one and I think there is a really good chance I would take the +14 here.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
ull couldnt stop jpicks from getting a hundred yards rushing if the offensive line was LT dmoney , LG vegaskyle , C fondybadger , RG BAR and RT jumponboard.
Fletcher is going to do whatever he wants.
i think every ull road game last year saw 56 poitns or more except the season opener at s carolina.
S miss offensive ability is masked by the slew of injuries , most notably to qb's last year..
on the other side of the ball ull can run the ball too and s miss returns just 4 to the defense... think we get a fairly low number for this total and it will likely be a bet from me.
Fletcher is going to do whatever he wants.
i think every ull road game last year saw 56 poitns or more except the season opener at s carolina.
S miss offensive ability is masked by the slew of injuries , most notably to qb's last year..
on the other side of the ball ull can run the ball too and s miss returns just 4 to the defense... think we get a fairly low number for this total and it will likely be a bet from me.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Most like the Cajuns here, and I'm with them.
This game could be over in two hours. Should be constant running on both sides.
Only concern is that ULL was horrendous against the run (5 ypc LY) while USM (3.8 ypc) was pretty good. However, USM only returns 2 of their 9 linemen (0 on the DL).
ULL only returns 1 on the DL, but four on the OL come back. Desormeaux should have the advantage over whoever USM decides to throw out there at QB as well.
ULL is small on both lines, but USM isn't big either save for 1 or two guys.
This game could be over in two hours. Should be constant running on both sides.
Only concern is that ULL was horrendous against the run (5 ypc LY) while USM (3.8 ypc) was pretty good. However, USM only returns 2 of their 9 linemen (0 on the DL).
ULL only returns 1 on the DL, but four on the OL come back. Desormeaux should have the advantage over whoever USM decides to throw out there at QB as well.
ULL is small on both lines, but USM isn't big either save for 1 or two guys.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yup. legitimate chance. Fenroy is one of the best running backs no one has heard of and the team played its best football downt he stretch last year ... like the improvement
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
catching up on what has already transpired during today's session...
I prefer Missouri -7.5, but won't play it because its equally likely that they win by 10 as lose outright and those are weird games to bet. Sometimes those can be valid MLD spots, but not with a "high profile dark horse" like Illinois in that spot, the value will be absent. You might see 270 if the line moves up high enough, you will never see 3:1.
I disagree with what I was reading here and have a strong lean to the Cal GBs behind that dominant offensive line. I don't think skill position players count for much in the big picture. They are much more replaceable than good linemen and I believe Cal will demonstrate that this season. Kevin Riley is fucking awesome and a year from now will be better than Nate Longshore could ever lie about.
USC -17/UNDER are my leans, but neither will be a likely play. Sanchez isn't going to be the problem this season, he got his shittiness out of the way in a couple losses last season, he will be fine. The thing to note about USC's offense is that for the first time in half a decade the line doesn't appear to be bullet-proof.
I prefer Missouri -7.5, but won't play it because its equally likely that they win by 10 as lose outright and those are weird games to bet. Sometimes those can be valid MLD spots, but not with a "high profile dark horse" like Illinois in that spot, the value will be absent. You might see 270 if the line moves up high enough, you will never see 3:1.
I disagree with what I was reading here and have a strong lean to the Cal GBs behind that dominant offensive line. I don't think skill position players count for much in the big picture. They are much more replaceable than good linemen and I believe Cal will demonstrate that this season. Kevin Riley is fucking awesome and a year from now will be better than Nate Longshore could ever lie about.
USC -17/UNDER are my leans, but neither will be a likely play. Sanchez isn't going to be the problem this season, he got his shittiness out of the way in a couple losses last season, he will be fine. The thing to note about USC's offense is that for the first time in half a decade the line doesn't appear to be bullet-proof.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Can you give me more on riley ?
You follow northwest closer than other areas of the country, gar ?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
No one will convince me to play usc - 3td on the east coast against an average power conference school. The line makes no sense if it is 3td or more in comparison to otehr lined games .....lets just say that you give an 8 point swing for home fields ... that means a 29 point spread for usc if they were to host virginia ... just doesnt fit with auburn -27.5 to ulm or wiscy -28 to akron .... there just cant be value in my opinion with usc laying 3td or more and i am very confident it gets there.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
USC -17/UNDER are my leans, but neither will be a likely play. Sanchez isn't going to be the problem this season, he got his shittiness out of the way in a couple losses last season, he will be fine. The thing to note about USC's offense is that for the first time in half a decade the line doesn't appear to be bullet-proof.
just two seniors on the whole offense. that hurts no matter how much talent is there.
just two seniors on the whole offense. that hurts no matter how much talent is there.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yeah but that was back when they were the indians , they are the lowly red wolves now.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
For some reason (maybe just wanting to be different LOL) I am looking at Bama/Clemson as a potential OVER play. Bama is shaky in the front seven and are still trying to get their LBers figured out. Clemson is the wrong team to be playing if you aren't sure about your front seven. The Clemson front wall likely won't be as refined as the last two years, but they are a nice squatty drive-blocking OL that works by trying to poke a hole in the DL rather than by blasting them all back down the field. In the trenches going the other way, I don't trust Clemson's DL. They can be run on, and in 6 of their last 7 games allowed 4.3 ypc or more. Sapp will be fine in time, same for Bowers, but neither is Merling or Adams yet and people are talking about them like they are. Any youth and experience issues in the Bama WR corps is more than offset by A) JPW being an experienced Sr. who will limit silly mistakes and B) the fact that he will have a lot of time in the pocket protected by what appears to be a nice OL.
I feel like you two did a valid job of addressing the Vandals and Wildcats, its a run and shoot sort of game. Neither team will play any defense because they couldn't even if they wanted too, but AZ just has superior athleticism to a man, and that 28 point differential could be nearly dealt with in talent alone.
I had UNLV -16, but would never have considered laying that many and won't now even if it is closer to 10. I don't like their team and I really don't like their coach.
I prefer UL-Monroe + the points. Unlike apparently everyone else, I wasn't shocked that they beat Bama as situationally it was horrible for the Tide. I wanted to play the ML, but it wasn't even 20:1 from what I recall so I just passed and got more and more angry as I saw the score of the game. LOL No sneaking up on anyone this year, I just think they have enough quality to hang around in what figures to be a run-shortened game. When that clock is constantly on the move those 4 touchdowns can be awfully tough to cover. That is what happened to me in the SC-ULL season opener last year. Got my ass handed to me on that one.
I feel like you two did a valid job of addressing the Vandals and Wildcats, its a run and shoot sort of game. Neither team will play any defense because they couldn't even if they wanted too, but AZ just has superior athleticism to a man, and that 28 point differential could be nearly dealt with in talent alone.
I had UNLV -16, but would never have considered laying that many and won't now even if it is closer to 10. I don't like their team and I really don't like their coach.
I prefer UL-Monroe + the points. Unlike apparently everyone else, I wasn't shocked that they beat Bama as situationally it was horrible for the Tide. I wanted to play the ML, but it wasn't even 20:1 from what I recall so I just passed and got more and more angry as I saw the score of the game. LOL No sneaking up on anyone this year, I just think they have enough quality to hang around in what figures to be a run-shortened game. When that clock is constantly on the move those 4 touchdowns can be awfully tough to cover. That is what happened to me in the SC-ULL season opener last year. Got my ass handed to me on that one.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Yep, but they had an in-state rival to look forward to last year, and they are in the same situation this year.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
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For some reason (maybe just wanting to be different LOL) I am looking at Bama/Clemson as a potential OVER play. Bama is shaky in the front seven and are still trying to get their LBers figured out. Clemson is the wrong team to be playing if you aren't sure about your front seven. The Clemson front wall likely won't be as refined as the last two years, but they are a nice squatty drive-blocking OL that works by trying to poke a hole in the DL rather than by blasting them all back down the field. In the trenches going the other way, I don't trust Clemson's DL. They can be run on, and in 6 of their last 7 games allowed 4.3 ypc or more. Sapp will be fine in time, same for Bowers, but neither is Merling or Adams yet and people are talking about them like they are. Any youth and experience issues in the Bama WR corps is more than offset by A) JPW being an experienced Sr. who will limit silly mistakes and B) the fact that he will have a lot of time in the pocket protected by what appears to be a nice OL.
What total do you expect to see here ?
For some reason (maybe just wanting to be different LOL) I am looking at Bama/Clemson as a potential OVER play. Bama is shaky in the front seven and are still trying to get their LBers figured out. Clemson is the wrong team to be playing if you aren't sure about your front seven. The Clemson front wall likely won't be as refined as the last two years, but they are a nice squatty drive-blocking OL that works by trying to poke a hole in the DL rather than by blasting them all back down the field. In the trenches going the other way, I don't trust Clemson's DL. They can be run on, and in 6 of their last 7 games allowed 4.3 ypc or more. Sapp will be fine in time, same for Bowers, but neither is Merling or Adams yet and people are talking about them like they are. Any youth and experience issues in the Bama WR corps is more than offset by A) JPW being an experienced Sr. who will limit silly mistakes and B) the fact that he will have a lot of time in the pocket protected by what appears to be a nice OL.
What total do you expect to see here ?
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
I thought Texas -24 was a fair line, so no value to the favorite here even though it is well within their ability to win by 50. Can't take a dog like this though.
I think that a lot of folks think that FAU is better than what they are because of how they finished the season, but a quick check of the early parts of the last few years reveals they do not yet belong on the field with actual BCS competition (Minnesota last year notwithstanding.) No dog play. Just a well-lined game.
I think that a lot of folks think that FAU is better than what they are because of how they finished the season, but a quick check of the early parts of the last few years reveals they do not yet belong on the field with actual BCS competition (Minnesota last year notwithstanding.) No dog play. Just a well-lined game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
wouldnt call utep an instate rival as much as an instate team. i will be at that game btw.
sitting in the stadium of my alma mater cheering for the away team. lol.
i should ahve a good knowledge base for how the longhorns are approaching the utep game as far as possibly looking ahead ... have to doubt it since florida atlantic is clearly a better team than utep is though.
didnt they outscore the previous 3 sunbelt opponents like 181-10 in season openers priot to ark state though ?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
I'm thinking it could be a little lowish. Probably not unlike FSU/Clemson in last year's season-opener. Low to mid 40s?
With regards to Kevin Riley he has an absolute fucking gun. In the bowl game he proved he could not only aim it, but that it was attached to a brain as well. He is a local kid here in Beaverton and the son of a very successful high school coach so he has all the "football smarts" going for him. He had to get over a finger injury as a true frosh and thus red-shirted otherwise more folks would already know about him. Right now he is probably on par with Longshore, but his ceiling is 3x higher.
I don't know the NW a whole lot better than anywhere else, simply because I don't follow a lot of HS recruiting. I go to a UO game every couple years, but make it an absolute point not to be a homer of any sort.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Yes, but an almost definite no bet.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
will respond in a second ... have to go to the crapper ... sometimes its just a 5 minute deal and sometimes its a twenty minute deal.... you will be 40 someday people. be back but keep it going ....
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i thought the game would be in mid fifties.......... would you still go over at 55 ?
thanks for the riley insight,.
