week 1 LVSC opening lines

I made it about 40 percent of the way through this thread....will finish tomorow...

want to give a few quick thoughts...intial thoughts....still working on preperation...

USC-Virginia: Trojans have a bye week after, correct? I think they win but play it very conservatively. No reason to let out any secrets of a potential gameplan for the OSU game. In the same token I don't see UVA scoring much at all. Seven could be tops. I am sure this line is 3 scores by offshore openers though.

Stanford-Oregon State: Me likes. I think this is the platuea on the spread though. I would say its a FG or less when we have a chance to get it. No Bernard and great point by Kyle yesterday about the front 7 of the Beavers.

Ole Miss-Memphis: Series hasn't ever really treated me kindly but I like Ole Miss team this year. I think its first blowout we have seen in this series for awhile

WMU-Nebraska: So much of this is predicated on NU's camp. This team was in shambles last last year. I think WMU can move the ball effectively and played in three tough enviroments last season(Iowa, WVU and Mizzou). Hiller is going to have a monster season. He had an adjustment period last year but really played much better late. WMU has a solid defense for that conference. Hopefully stays above 2 scores. I have my feel on WMu, just need to see NU is responding.

Tulsa-UAB: Gotta see exactly how much UAB has improved. I know its going to be a W.I.P. but have yet to really look at this team yet. So, its on the radar

Mizzou-Illinois: I think Missouri, although W-L could be different is a slightly better team this year. I think Illy is a tad down. Juice will be better but mendanhall was so huge to this club. Their secondary is iffy as can be. Chase should have a field day.

Back in the morning.
 
vegaskyle said:
georgia was -7.5 in the bowl game ... and they matched up better against hawaii ... and i think people are giving brennan and bess a little too much credit here.

also there is a major motivation angle to this game. as hawaii was embarrassed in that game.

i also think that meyer made some disparaging comments about brennan last year which the hawaii program might have taken offense too.

i personally will probably stay away from this game ... too many people who are good like the florida side .. but i dont see the value.
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June Jones called Tebow a "SYSTEM QB" and said Brennan was better

This game is at 6:30am for Hawaii\
 
You cannot discount the travel for Hawaii. We are talking about one of the worst places to play in college football. Add in the flight, and you have a miserable start for this Warriors squad. I don't think -27 is high enough, but I am not a fan of laying huge spreads (unless we're talking about Tx Tech). I will likely pass, but I believe UF is the play here. Hawaii can try to redeem themselves all they want, but the disparity in talent here added to the horrible travel and rough playing environment spells a huge win for the Gators.
 
vegaskyle said:
i have wyoming as roughly a td better than ohio on neutral.... how does ohio replace mcrae ?? they were -4 at ohio last year and now ohio is markedly worse and wyoming is markedly better ... line is as if both are the same .... final score was deceiving .. wyoming had a 28-13 fd advantage and 130 more yards of offense in athens.
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Kyle- OU did have a 23-6 lead in this game though and was up 30-20 going into the fourth quarter...


All that said, OU lost alot of their leaders from last year...If WYO can find any type of stability at the QB position, the Cowboys should get the cash..


OU also has the biggest game of these kids lives on tap week 2 in C-bus vs the Buckeyes...

Is there a worse place in the world to travel in a lookahead spot than Laramie, WY?
 
Forget to mention that altitude plays a big role in these early non conference games in Laramie as well...see UVA and Ole Miss wins..

I don't see anyway not to play the Cowboys here fellas.
 
A couple things i want to comment and clear up, just from my opinions personally.

Reread the thing, ....again ..... and i really came off as vehemently for okie state at the -6 number. I am not that sold on it yet. I will likely bet it but okie state road woes are a big time concern and while the defense is "said to be better" , i havent seen it yet. new coach , new qb , new system , average talent isn't a good combo for openers though, which helps the cowboys.

Thanks for reminding me about the june jones remarks, etg, which werent as good as his postgame sjsu remarks but that is added motivation for tebow i suppose ... he wont be able to get revenge via smu.

BAR brought up a good point in his comments about the usc-virginia game in that some of these big favorites might go vanilla vs lesser opponents to start the year. Something to keep in mind for all lopsided games.

Add bluechip to the long line of cappers who like florida in that game. This is why i am likely laying off of the game, despite having a lean for hawaii. Also , those who know what i played last year know that i was incredible at the lower lined games and pretty bad at the blowout lined games. So right now i might be more inclined to stick with lower lined games anyway.

Jump, makes a great point about TOSU on deck for ohio and how it relates to a trip to laramie. I think most of you know that i believe it is a very underrated homefield by most cappers.

Also, with addition of nropp, miami ohio is getting a lot of love. So in that regard , i think carolinablues earlier statements about possibly playing that early might be the way to go if you like the redhawks. I had mentioned how mac ooc games moved last year but after seeing the amount of miami oh love and with realization that there cant be that many in love with vandy , might want to bet that early..also nropps mention of sick defense is further illustration that this game should be low scoring. will be interesting to see the posted total of this game.

i "should" be around most of the day and will check in to see if anyone wants to get this going again later.
 
BAR brought up a good point in his comments about the usc-virginia game in that some of these big favorites might go vanilla vs lesser opponents to start the year. Something to keep in mind for all lopsided games.
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Def. a big thing to look at. Two seasons ago myself and Hunt really preached that about UM in week one. They were somewhat vanilla the week before a trip to South Bend. They then threw it all out on the table in a 47-21 trashing.

You will find all sorts of these situations. As it relates to USC, Sanchez has a full camp this fall injury free and I am sure Carroll wants him to be sharp in game one. Overall talent could just take over as well in that game at UVA. Just want people to remember in general, that playbooks won;t be pried all the way open early in season.
 
Add bluechip to the long line of cappers who like florida in that game. This is why i am likely laying off of the game, despite having a lean for hawaii. Also , those who know what i played last year know that i was incredible at the lower lined games and pretty bad at the blowout lined games. So right now i might be more inclined to stick with lower lined games anyway.
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To each capper his own, no doubt. Some of us just struggle in certain situations. You have that identified and I am sure its smething you will improve at as time pases due to your diligence.

Now, speaking of this Florida game. The Gators are going to score. I love this team this year. The defense will be much better. Obviously the backfield injuries/suspenions/depth/etc is a concern. That being said I will have 1-2 plays on this game. The first will be a first half play. Now, if the line stays current at 27(prolly won't), then I can get a 14-14.5 or so half line. It will move quickly when it comes out. My other play will be team over. I expect Florida to come out flying and have an explosive first half. One of those like 35-10 halves. I can see Graunke and Co. having a backdoor shot, hence leaving the spread alone for full game. Florida will do enough in 2nd half to easily get the team total as well.
 
Lets also remember guys....

Lets not fall in love with these numbers. None will be the same. Some better and some worse. I would go with the latter over the former as having more cases unfortunately. I have always used the LVSC numbers as a nice starting point that shows me what the early movers are thinking and whatnot. I mean, your not getting Utah at +7. By the time books release here in 2.5 weeks that line is about 4 I would say. Same thing with Stanford, we'll be seeing a FG dog or less imo.
 
B.A.R. said:
To each capper his own, no doubt. Some of us just struggle in certain situations. You have that identified and I am sure its smething you will improve at as time pases due to your diligence.

Now, speaking of this Florida game. The Gators are going to score. I love this team this year. The defense will be much better. Obviously the backfield injuries/suspenions/depth/etc is a concern. That being said I will have 1-2 plays on this game. The first will be a first half play. Now, if the line stays current at 27(prolly won't), then I can get a 14-14.5 or so half line. It will move quickly when it comes out. My other play will be team over. I expect Florida to come out flying and have an explosive first half. One of those like 35-10 halves. I can see Graunke and Co. having a backdoor shot, hence leaving the spread alone for full game. Florida will do enough in 2nd half to easily get the team total as well.
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Here is why i really kind of like the idea of the florida TT. I think we are all pretty confident that florida can score pretty easily against hawaii, so it becomes a matter of want to and need. If hawaii struggles offensively , florida gets field position for quick scores and they should go over the total. If hawaii succeeds offensively, florida will NEED to keep scoring. The other notable here is that hawaii games have way more plays than your average game. Florida rates to score well above season average in this game. I think hawaii has a much closer run-pass ratio this year but to qoute dennis green "they are who we thought they were !". As a general rule when i lay a huge-ass number like 4 td in a game , i want to be confident that once i get there , the opposing team is not likely to backdoor...in other words , i prefer to have the dominant defense in those games as opposed to the dominant offense. This is why i would prefer laying 4td in a akron-wiscy type game. Just feel confident that once the badgers were up 28 that akron would be done. Don't necessarily feel that way about the hawaii offense. Not saying to bet wiscy, just using it as an example of the type of game that i prefer to lay the big number in. I know florida is going to be better on defense this year ( i have them rated best team in nation by power rating so i am not hating ) but they were 98th in the country vs the pass last year giving up almost 260 yards per game thru the air. Now , they have lost two safeties in the spring-fall already and face a pass happy warriors team. Florida allowed 20 or more points in 11 of 13 games last year and one of the games they did not allow 20 was against western kentucky. I just think if you expect florida to cover that the TT is a safer bet anyway. I am finding it difficult to see how it pans out to florida not scoring , with or without hawaii offensive success.
 
This MSU at Cal game is intriguing as well. Not that I have a side I like yet at this point but I think it's going to be a fun game. Historically, it seems like the Big11 doesn't travel well on the West Coast. I know thats pretty true for both Blue and Green and the conference in a whole. Minnesota went out there within the past few years and got rolled.

Who's Cals QB going to be? Longshore or Riley?

Does MSU receiveres step up? I think they'll be fine.

MSU has perhaps the best running back in conference after Beanie Wells in Javon Ringer. He can simply change a game with his speed.

Hoyer should have a excellent season.

MSU defense could be best they have had in ages(not that they have had a productive one since I was in HS prolly).
 
MSU has perhaps the best running back in conference after Beanie Wells in Javon Ringer. He can simply change a game with his speed.


sporting news college preview has him on 2nd team all-american. I think thats a bit much but it illustrates your point.
 
About USC going Vanilla....I don't know if I would do that if I was Carroll.

He has a bye the next week and then OSU.


He has a kind of new OL with a kind of new QB and he has a WR corps, loaded with talent, that is a little unproven or hasn't lived up to the hype yet. If I am coach, I want to make sure against a lesser opponent that we can function as an adaquate passing game. Testing it out against OSU is a little too late. You don't have to show the whole offense against UVA, but, you need to show a competent offense. Offenses are not like light switches, flick on/off, you want to be firing on all cylinders. I think anything under -24 is good value for USC beating the living piss out of UVA. 48-13 or something bad like that
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
About USC going Vanilla....I don't know if I would do that if I was Carroll.

He has a bye the next week and then OSU.


He has a kind of new OL with a kind of new QB and he has a WR corps, loaded with talent, that is a little unproven or hasn't lived up to the hype yet. If I am coach, I want to make sure against a lesser opponent that we can function as an adaquate passing game. Testing it out against OSU is a little too late. You don't have to show the whole offense against UVA, but, you need to show a competent offense. Offenses are not like light switches, flick on/off, you want to be firing on all cylinders. I think anything under -24 is good value for USC beating the living piss out of UVA. 48-13 or something bad like that
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so u like tha over also im guessin? i jus dont see how theres any value layin (maybe when its open offshore) 3+ tds on tha road. unless i know tha outcome before tha shit happens why would i risk layin that many points on tha road in college football? sure usc is a power house team an can beat uva wit ease, but too many things can happen for that number to miss an have a nice uva backdoor cover. fuck whos to say uva cant win it outright? anything can happen on any given day. look what stanford did to usc lastyear. sure its a real small chance uva takes them outright but it can happen.
 
7-30 eastern time we start again. roll call for next ten minutes. shout out if you are here and ready to participate at 730 eastern.
 
no one .... so will hold roll call round two for a 800 eastern start up.

roll call for a football talk, starting at 800 eastern. speak up if you will be here.
 
copy paste of bar comments earlier
Mizzou-Illinois: I think Missouri, although W-L could be different is a slightly better team this year. I think Illy is a tad down. Juice will be better but mendanhall was so huge to this club. Their secondary is iffy as can be. Chase should have a field day.
 
no real opinion on this one. I think I had my first projected spread for this one in double digits, but I back off that a little now.
 
Without capping the game out , its hard to see value here. I made the line a little bit higher by power rating but i dont like laying huge points against good teams.

juice and Benn should be that much better this year but as bar mentioned the mendenhall loss is huge. The other factor is that they lost their two best o-linemen in my estimation. This team was a running team, bigtime , so to expect a major successful switch to more passing for an opener like this one , might be hard to expect. i think i laid 5 points in this game last year , maybe 5.5 .... mizzou looks to be slightly better to me for the most part and illinois looks down a notch. There is the idea that missouri is a tough offense to prepare for and illinois was much more effective defensively in the second half last year. Whether that was from decent adjustments or missouri being in a comfortable lead is tough to tell though. A game i want to watch because it should be excited and filled with talent but not sure it is one that i want to bet. gun to my head i take missouri here due to last years game and the following assessments ....

illinois offense 07 > illinois offense 08
illinois defense 07 > illinois defense 08
missouri offense 07 = missouri offense 08
missouri defense 07 < missouri defense 08

thats without capping matchups and other factors , but on the surface i doubt i play anything in this game. after sweating out last years game where illinois stormed back with mcgee at qb , i think it is reasonable to worry about a backdoor here as well.

two quality football teams
 
Dmoney416 said:
I wouldn't be surprised to see a 3 TD victory for Mizzou, but an Illinois win wouldn't shock me either.
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yup neither would be a shock.

looks like dmoney and i might be on the sideline for this marquis matchup. Anyone out there have a side they like ??

hey D , where do you think this total comes out ?
 
nope. could see that game going so many ways , which is why i dont want to play it hehe.

onward ?
 
I lean dog here but it is another game i am unlikely to play.

what concerns me here is the coaching difference. not that tedford is a bad coach but i think Dantonio has hsi kids buying into him and the program and tedford has kind of looked like he has lost the team a little the last two years.
 
I think Mich St. could steal one here. I remember Cupito's Minnesota team going out there in '06 and getting blasted (after Cal lost to Tennessee in the opener), but that squad had no semblance of a defense.

Michigan St. should have a decent D. They lost some starters, but a good amount of depth returns. D'Antonio will try to control the game with Ringer.

Would also like the under as Ringer could get 30 carries and Cal loses their whole WR and Rb core.
 
I am old school , partly because i am old , in that i like to have my money behind themore physical team. i am a believer in hoyer and i dont even think the bears know who will be their starter yet.
 
vegaskyle said:
I lean dog here but it is another game i am unlikely to play.

what concerns me here is the coaching difference. not that tedford is a bad coach but i think Dantonio has hsi kids buying into him and the program and tedford has kind of looked like he has lost the team a little the last two years.
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I would give Mich St. a moderate coaching edge as well. D'Antonio's teams make for good dogs. I know from his short time at Cincy.
 
i think 10 of their last 12 in that stadium ahve been pretty high scoring though .... but your logic is sound. not sure where they put this total
 
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