Wednesday Openers/Discussion

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
NBA - Nov 26
NBA WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26TH
4:05 PM
701 MILWAUKEE



702 ATLANTA



4:05 PM
703 OKLAHOMA CITY +16-110 o196-110

704 CLEVELAND -16-110 u196-110

4:05 PM
705 CHARLOTTE



706 TORONTO



4:35 PM
707 ORLANDO +2½-110 o190½-110

708 PHILADELPHIA -2½-110 u190½-110

4:35 PM
709 GOLDEN STATE +12-110 o202-110

710 BOSTON -12-110 u202-110

5:05 PM
711 PHOENIX -4-110 o196-110

712 MINNESOTA +4-110 u196-110

5:05 PM
713 NEW YORK +11½-110 o209½-110

714 DETROIT -11½-110 u209½-110

5:35 PM
715 INDIANA +10-110 o190½-110

716 HOUSTON -10-110 u190½-110

5:35 PM
717 CHICAGO +7-110 o191-110

718 SAN ANTONIO -7-110 u191-110

6:05 PM
719 MEMPHIS



720 UTAH



7:05 PM
721 MIAMI +7-110 o193-110

722 PORTLAND -7-110 u193-110

7:05 PM
723 NEW JERSEY +2½-110 o211-110

724 SACRAMENTO -2½-110 u211-110

7:35 PM
725 DENVER



726 LA CLIPPERS
 
1st glance- OKC getting 16 is ridiculous by cleveland. what is clevelands motivation to win by 20? cleveland on b2b and on 2nd part of 4/5. can imagine they rest up
 
SF_capper said:
1st glance- OKC getting 16 is ridiculous by cleveland. what is clevelands motivation to win by 20? cleveland on b2b and on 2nd part of 4/5. can imagine they rest up
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Not to mention the night after Lebron is in NYC with his new "big apple" shoes. I don't see the motivation either. Plus from an OKC standpoint all those players in the two or three deep who would be playing in garbage tiime will be working their asses off to try and impress the new coach to get more playing time. Definitely lean towards taking the points.
 
^i'd love for cleveland to be up by 15 or so at the half. if they are, i will smash OKC. waitin on it though.
 
Yep ^^^

played that at a point smaller though, also hit PHX -4.

Looking at

Indiana +10
Okie +16
Orlando +2.5
Baby Bulls +7
Nets +2.5
 
Indy will depend alot on tonight. Schedule is brutal coming up and I expect them to just concede a few games along the way and I'd imagine it'll be against WC teams rather than the games against ORL, BOS, and CLE. There is a definite way to make money betting them on this stretch.

Like OKC, but haven't looked at the others yet.
 
Just gonna break down the games here, and see if I can find something I really like.

Looks like last year, OKC beat Clev by 14, and Clev beat OKC by 14. But OKC beat them w/o LBJ.

OKC last 7 games have been beat by 17,10,11,25,20,25,12. So I gues I'm not overly excited to lay 16 with them, when they have proven they can get blown out. but cleveland off a big time game against NYK
 
Which Orlando team and Which Philadelphia teams show up tomorrow night.

Philly starts a tough part of there schedule in the next 10 days. Philly has revenge, most spots I would think Philly wins this here, but when someone can figure out this team let me know.
 
marlo, the cavs fade so bad on b2bs, especially against inferior teams, there is no way in hell they should be laying 16 here...
 
May have to wait out the 1st half on the Cavs/Thunder with Cleveland putting the beat down to the Knicks tonight. Can't imagine any of the starters getting more than 25 minutes the way things are going.
 
I can also see Brooks pushing OKC not to let up against the Suns. He is using only an 8 man rotation, then ona B2B tomorrow night.

If OKC win, we should be able to see the number drop in this game. If you like OKC, better to get them now.
 
Celtics - 12 looks very nice seeing what the wizards did tonight on defense
 
All of there losses have been by 9 points or more, cept for 1, but im pretty sure this falls into BC's home team after being on a roady trend.
 
SA is 5-2 to the under @ home this year.

Lowest TT that the bulls have given up OTR this year is 96. Lowest TT that they have give up overall is 91 against Dallas
 
Very strong play on Phoenix tomorrow night (already played them, and adding)

Phx performance tonight, lost both games at Minnesota last year by DD. Minnesota has OKC on deck (revenge game) and Denver @ home a team they had on the ropes 10 days ago, but depsite a 4th quarter letdown lost....They are also off a big blowout win against Detroit...(who was in a bad spot)

Also Shaq not playing tonight, Minnesota has no one that can guard Amare or Shaq...tough spot for the wolves, especially when Phoenix ends up losing tonight against OKC....dont think PHX wants to bad performances on there belts going back home.
 
Depending on who is starting for Utah in 3 days, and if NJ doesnt beat La tonight (about a 20% chance they do) Then tomorrow nights game is there best shot at winning game....tough one to read though Arco is tough place to play add that NJ seems to have troubles this year with teams that can push the pace i.e. losses against Indy x2, PHX, Miami, Clev, GSW.
 
I expect Detroit to shut down NYK on defense...already played the under here...kinda of a scary thought seeing as NYK play no defense, but expect Curry to emphasize defense after they throw away game against Minny on Sunday night.
 
Houston with a big look ahead game on deck in 3 days..Indy with Char on deck, should be a win there, and revenge game @ Orlando after that... if they end up beating Dallas tonight, I can see tomorrow night as a throw away game for them...expect them to start out quick but then fade quickly.
 
Thinking about Cleveland first half. Cleveland was down 20 points first half to OKC last time. Second half OKC put up minor resistance so they came back 14 points. 11 were in the fourth quarter so Cleveland first half and OKC fourth quarter have appeal if you believe teams have memories.
Very likely playing Bobcats first half. in 2008 they have played 4 times with toronto cashing in 4 of them first half and with Augustin getting more minutes as a starter the team has improved.
 
Strong lean to Knicks. Straight but late I understand today. Cleveland knew the Knicks were tying to steal their KING. Loud Slap. Knicks knew it to so token resistance. Knicks had 2 days off before today and have 2 days off after Detroit. Imagine Mobley plays. Last 4 at Detroit Knicks would be covering this spread in 3 of them and losing by .5 a point in 1. Just a bad public play would think.
 
tuck321 said:
Very likely playing Bobcats first half. in 2008 they have played 4 times with toronto cashing in 4 of them first half and with Augustin getting more minutes as a starter the team has improved.
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Mitchell and BC had a closed door meeting, Im guessing this game will be Mitchells last stand.


The Toronto Raptors have not played as well as they have expected. Over the last four games they have been even worse, prompting a meeting between head coach Sam Mitchell and team President and General Manager Bryan Colangelo. The meeting was closed door and "confidential" according to Raptors sources. It is believed that Colangelo wanted to jump start his coach and hopefully his struggling team. Mitchell followed that meeting up with one of his most aggressive practices to date and seems energized by the talk. It's unclear if Colangelo put Mitchell on the hot seat, or gave him a vote of confidence, either way it does seem Colangelo has concerns about his coach. Mitchell after practice characterized the meeting as positive, stressing that it was important for the team to stay together.
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At 1st glance -


OKC has played alot better the past 2 games . I dismissed the 1st game because it was a home and home which the 1st game was a blowout . They played the Suns real well today . Granted Shaq didnt play but it's not 1998 anymore either . So always have to look at grabbing +16. Knicks were just lost in the 1st Half and seemed to happen when Harrington made his debut . Not blaming him entirely but as I mentioned he entered the game NYK down 17-16 was on the court for 7 minutes and 19 seconds and the NYK were down 20 . Its nearly unbelievable that a player could have a -19 +/- in that short amount of time . Credit the Knicks IMO for playing hard in the 2nd H when they were down 30 and Nate was out . OKC +16 highly interested . Also apparrently King James had a few hot dog stands setup up around the Garden . Essentially buying NYK fans free hot dogs . Very curious thing to do .

Of no specific interest to a game here the Wiz went with Dee Brown at PG today with the new coach and Daniels still out .

Orl looks banged up and with vet Anthony Johnson playing the Point not sure I see value on them in a Pkem basically . Sixers have payback after getting embarrassed IMO in the 1st H @ Orlando. Sixers or pass .......

Pistons are well rested of a beatdown and hectic schedule for a week . Cant see much value in NY until they look better then today . If Nate is out and Mobley still not ready to go then depth at guard a huge concern .

Hard to see how Minny responds off the pounding they gave Det . Suns didnt look very good tonight and havent recently. Like the Wolves usually at home in the 1st H . Something to look at ...

Not sure about the other games yet havent looked ...












 
SportsNut said:
Probably Joe Johnson related. He said he could barely run up and down the court before the last game if I recall. So his status could be in question but unsure just guessing
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Actually Bogut was hurt last game as well and its him probably keeping it OTB. Think he is OUT.
 
Reading Atlanta paper seems like some vague chance Smith comes back for the game.
 
If there is a point guard problem maybe so. The Bobcat game---. Call me crazy but think that was largely Nash. Either had no points or 2 points the entire first half and the Suns just imitated his lack of effort. Genuine trip back to the old days. Not really sure the Thunder are in great shape mentally after losing that game in the way they did. Would never argue with someone for taking 16 but Cleveland laying over 8 in 2008 is 8-4 ats. They are actually a team that usually gets there. But not necessarily in the fourth quarter tomorrow.
Does look like a odd number in Minn but the whole situation is odd. People calling it a revenge game because Minn won some games at home when the last time the Suns played Minn they beat them by 29 points. The Heat the Suns next opponent with the Shawn Shaq reunion. Many currents there for sure.
 
Would really like to read your thoughts on Under in Houston - Houston favor Unders in Toyota Center and I think that after three Overs in a row, Under is past due for the Rockets and on Over in Philly tonight. If Nelson is out, Sixers will be looking to play even faster than before and Orlando always relies on their three pointers and feeding the ball to Howard. Been really weak with the Totals lately, so would like to read you thoughts on this two.

Suns should be solid tonight. Didn't show up yesterday for most of the match, but won. Tonight, if Shaq is back, Suns should be rollin...
 
tuck321 said:
If there is a point guard problem maybe so. The Bobcat game---. Call me crazy but think that was largely Nash. Either had no points or 2 points the entire first half and the Suns just imitated his lack of effort. Genuine trip back to the old days. Not really sure the Thunder are in great shape mentally after losing that game in the way they did. Would never argue with someone for taking 16 but Cleveland laying over 8 in 2008 is 8-4 ats. They are actually a team that usually gets there. But not necessarily in the fourth quarter tomorrow.
Does look like a odd number in Minn but the whole situation is odd. People calling it a revenge game because Minn won some games at home when the last time the Suns played Minn they beat them by 29 points. The Heat the Suns next opponent with the Shawn Shaq reunion. Many currents there for sure.
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Wasnt paying close attention to the Suns game but think Amare had 3 1st H fouls . If so would look at that as the possible cause for the offensive slump with Shaq already out . Took away any inside presence they had . Only saying that because I recall them being stuck on 10 pts for ever that Q and the other Qs read 26 , 29 ,29 pts . So something had to go on ......

He got the third with 7 to play and the offense had already stalled but if not for a Nash jumper and Diaw 3 inside the last minute the Suns would have 6 pts w/o him ( they did have 6 pts in 6 minutes w/o him but the quick 5 maybe masked it when it went to 11 pts final 7 minutes)

2nd Q was turnover Barbosa , offensive foul Hill , turnover Barbosa , missed 3 Singletary . At 9:51 Admunson had a dunk for teh 1st pts . Barbosa layup , then they allowed 3 offensive boards and OKC had the ball for a nearly a minute before Nash had a turnover . Around 8 minutes Barbosa missed a three so they had 4 shots and 4 turnovers in 4 minutes . :shake:
 
divol said:
Would really like to read your thoughts on Under in Houston - Houston favor Unders in Toyota Center and I think that after three Overs in a row, Under is past due for the Rockets and on Over in Philly tonight. If Nelson is out, Sixers will be looking to play even faster than before and Orlando always relies on their three pointers and feeding the ball to Howard. Been really weak with the Totals lately, so would like to read you thoughts on this two.

Suns should be solid tonight. Didn't show up yesterday for most of the match, but won. Tonight, if Shaq is back, Suns should be rollin...
Click to expand...

Houston is 9-0 to Under (a couple of instances of those Unders turned into Overs via OT) the last 2 seasons they've played a game off 3 straight regulation Over results, and is 33-13 to Under off their last 46 Over results.
 
Might finally be joining the fray Wednesday -

MIL @ATL - Atlanta has lost 6 straight ATS while Milk has won 3 straight ATS. Atlanta has undoubtedly lost any lustre they gained in the eyes of the masses by their recent efforts: 2-5 SU L7, 0-6 ATS L6. Milk hasn't played 2 straight home games this season, so they're making to their 16th venue switch (4th in 6 days) while the Hawks have had 3 days rest.
Atlanta hasn't won by more than 5 points in 9 games, while Milk is 7-2 ATS their last 9 roadies, so this spread shouldn't be overwhelming.

IND @HOU - Everyone has just seen Indy pile on the points (2 Overs) with Dallas (215) & Miami (209), and the novices out there will completely disregard the venue change for the Rockets re: their recent scoring ways (3 straight road Overs of 194+).

CHA @TOR - CHA is 11-2 to Under (1 basket less off 12-1) and is playing at a venue where the host is 5-0 to Over vs Conference foes. What gives? Going to be an interesting total line.

ORL @PHI - Philly is 7-1 to Under vs Conference foes, while Orlando is 6-2 to Under vs Conference foes (1 basket less off 7-1 as well). Total therefore strikes me as high (mid to high 180s would've seemed fairer), indicating someone expects the unexpected.

I've more digging to do down various roads.
 
Good stuff BetCrimes...

I believe the public may bet this Houston total up a few points as they suddenly believe this is an Over team (Over 4 of last 5) but that one Under was their only home game in that stretch and HOU is 5-1 to the Under at Home this season (in regulation time)...

At first blush, DET and BOS should butcher NY and GS, respectively, and even though I always have been a Dog player in the NBA, giving 12 in both these spots doesn't seem to scare me one bit here...These may be a pair of 20+ point wins, although I think DET is the stronger play coming off bk-2-bk losses and that home beat-down they took vs. Minny...DET has had good success vs. D'Antoni's PHOE team the last 3 seasons, going 5-1 SU & ATS, so D'Antoni's offense doesn't bother this team...

PHOE 4-0 to the Over on back-ends of back-to-backs this season...

I do agree with the Philly revenge spot here...

Is MILW ever going to get tired?...They covered both 4-of-5 spots in the last 2 weeks and are now playing their 6th game in 9 days and 10th game in 16 days...7-1-1 ATS their last 9...Incredible really...ATL starts 6-0-1 ATS and then my tried-and-true chart-plays kick in and they have reversed that streak completely, going 0-6 ATS last 6...ATL was a tired team at CLE last time out, but they have had 3 days rest for this one...

OKC still a chart-play...They had a NC6 and now are on a C2 under the new coach...Not sure (and I highly doubt) if a team this bad can completely reverse the NC6 and reach a C6, but we'll see...
 
The rate of Dog SU winners is starting to falter.

thru the first 135 games their ratio to Fav SU winners was 1 : 1.755

over the last 86 games that ratio is to 1 : 3.470

making the overall ratio 1 : 2.196
 
Shawn Marion not playing tonight. Robinson for the Knicks a question mark and Mobley will not play. Referees fairly strong to the under in Detroit.
 
There is a real chance that Detroit will cover today. Looking at last years game logs there are at least 3 examples of the first loss as a fav by 10 or more, loss in the second game and then win and cover in the third game. Add this to the point guard problem and Knicks do not look attractive.
The drift in those 3rd games seems to be to the over so with the team histories, Knicks tendencies to over, the strong under referees you have a lot of conflict on that total. The one under I actually saw with Detroit in that spot where they won was with the ---Knicks.
 
Yeah apparently Jameer Nelson is out. Not sure who the third string pg is but Anthony Johnson is the backup and will be starting now.
 
Now i'm showing McGrady out? Is Nate Robinson out too for the Knicks? Lot of potential injuries.

btw, i use scoresandodds.com for injuries and line movement.
 
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