WBC 2013 - tourney long thread

slugur

slugur

Pretty much a regular
I don't proclaim to know these international teams very well (other than USA and Dominican Rep) but I did have some success in 06 and 09 tourney (mainly by riding S.Korea and Japan) so hopefully '13 tourney will be a profitable one.

Friday 3/1
Pool B - Game 1
Aussie vs Taiwan, under 9.5 (-115) *1.15 to win 1

Taiwan has produced a few quality MLB pitchers and their first game will be anchored by Chien-Ming Wang and Kuo. They should be able to limit the Aussie lineup and generally Asian teams play solid fundamental baseball with great defense. Taiwan scored a godly amount of runs in their preliminary games, but that was against countries such as Philippines and New Zealand that barely know how to play the game. Judging by their lack of offense in recent international games, I don't think Taiwan will score enough to push this total over 9.5.

Tournament Future (to win)
USA +280 *0.75 to win 2.1
Dominican Republic +400 *0.5 to win 2
Korea +850 *0.3 to win 2.55

My gut feeling tells me that Japan will not 3x peat and they are sending a much weaker (at least on paper) roster this time around. I am taking the best team from Pool B,C,D and hopefully 1 of them win it all.
 
buddy that follows this likes venezuela quite a bit. i don't follow, but trust his judgment somewhat...u look at them at all?
 
I don't follow this at all but I like that USA bet, it's about time for the states to take this one home since we think this is our game.
 
thanks, Grind.

kj, Venezuela is full of MLB talent and I like their lineup but I feel that DR will come out of Pool C as a winner which means Venezuela will most likely draw USA next round. DR was completely embarrassed in 2009 and I think this year's roster will be focused (or at least I hope so)
 
I like Venezuela a lot. While a lot of teams have talent, some have the problem of having 3 superstars at 1 position. Venezuela is pretty spread out. Slight concern about their starting pitching, but I really like everyday lineup. Salvatore Perez can hit (if he gets much time over Montero or Hernandez).

Infield is really good. Andrus/Scutaro/Infante/Cabrera in the middle and Sandoval and Miguel Cabrera at the corners. Cargo/PRado/Parra is a pretty solid outfield as well.

Dominican- What are they going to do about the OF? Does anyone really like their pitching?
 
Dollaz, no disagreement from me regarding Venezuela's lineup. DR is a bit thin in outfield, no doubt. Obviously Nelson Cruz is the one everyone knows about. but I think guys like De Aza will be serviceable in a short series. I like the bullpen and because the tourney limits how far SP can go, bullpen war will definitely be a factor. I think Dotel, Casilla, F.Rodney, and Veras will be solid in late games. It will be interesting to see. I'm looking forward to that pool C game 1 between Venezuela and DR.
 
wow Aussie total is now at 8... don't know if that's a good thing if everyone is hammering the under.

since there is no way I will be awake to post this game, might as well do now.

Sat 3/2
Pool B Game 1
Netherlands vs Korea under 8.5 *1.1 to win 1

Korea is always strong in pitching but very thin in hitting. It's their pitching that got them the gold medal in 2008 Olympics and 2nd place in 09 WBC. Dae Ho Lee played in Japan last year and finished top 3 in HR, RBI, but everyone else plays in their Korean league where hitting is generally considered weak.

Japan should win their game by a mercy rule but not taking -8.5 in a baseball game.
 
xyzky, hopefully your book honored that line for you. if it did, congrats.

3-1-0 +2.85

I will most likely be on Korea big but I have a feeling the line will be ridiculously high. I might consider RL.
 
Korea -2.5 -120 *1.2 to win 1
Korea/Aussie over 7.5 -120 1.2 to win 1

I was hoping for -1.5 but I still believe in Korea. this is their elimination game and Hopefully they put that Netherlands game behind them.
 
4-2-0 +2.65

stupid me. I wanted Korea RL big but ended up splitting RL with over. Hoping that Cuba opens +130 or better.

Korea ML -115 over Taiwan *3.45 to win 3
Netherlands -1.5 -130 over Aussie *1.3 to win 1
Brazil -1.5 -110 over China *1.1 to win 1
 
I really like Korea tomorrow as they must win in order to advance whereas Taiwan can still advance even with a loss as long as they don't lose by gazillion runs. You can see that as extra pressure and might work against them but most of these guys in Korean roster played numerous international games including 08 Olympic gold medal game and 09 WBC final.
 
6-3-0 +5.55

Cuba -105 over Japan *2.1 to win 2

I wanted them as a nice dog but I guess the linemaker won't allow that after seeing how vulnerable Japan was against Brazil and China.
 
Thanks, Grind and Grove.

Under is 9-2 so far in this tourney. Something to think about as they get set to start the Pool C and D on Thurs. There will be more fireworks as Pool C and D teams have stacked lineups with MLB hitters.
 
7-3-0 +7.55

Looking at Japan as a mid-favorite over Taiwan since they are at home and Taiwan had to travel (albeit it's only a three hour flight)

No opinion on Italy vs Mexico, and leaning towards over on DR vs Venezuela as long as the total is not too crazy high.

I will be back when the lines are out.
 
7-3-0 +7.55

Thursday

Cuba ML / Dominican Republic ML parlay +133 *1 to win 1.33
Venezuela vs Dominican over 9.5 -105 *1.05 to win 1
 
Thanks, Grind. I will put another unit on Cuba RL once the line is out. My book is only offering ML right now and I am just using it in a parlay to reduce the juice on Dominican Rep.
 
I like the over more than the game, but I'm thinking Venezuela as well. (hold a future on them).

Both teams are far more stacked offensively than pitching. Both scored a ton of runs yesterday (not putting that much stock in it)
 
7-3-0 +7.55

Thursday
Cuba ML / Dominican Republic ML parlay +133 *1 to win 1.33
Venezuela vs Dominican over 9.5 -105 *1.05 to win 1
Cuba -1.5 -145 *1.45 to win 1
Italy +190 *0.5 to win 0.95
Italy +1.5 +110 *0.5 to win 0.55

Friday
Japan -155 *1.55 to win 1
 
10-5-0 +7.60

Thursday
3-2-0 +0.05
Sigh. Cuba burned me today. Moving on.

Friday
Japan -155 *1.55 to win 1
 
Adding

USA/Mexico Over 9 -120 *2.4 to win 2
USA -1.5 -155 *1.55 to win 1
Canada/Italy Over 9 -120 *1.2 to win 1
 
Thanks, Play2win. GL to you as well.

Woke up just in time to catch that 9th inning of Japan vs Taiwan game. If Taiwan drops this game, I would have to take Cuba tomorrow despite what they did to me yesterday. Taiwan burned 2 of their best relievers and emotionally it will be difficult for them to regroup after being 1 strike out away from closing out Japan.
 
11-5-0 +8.60

Friday Pending
USA/Mexico Over 9 -120 *2.4 to win 2
USA -1.5 -155 *1.55 to win 1
Canada/Italy Over 9 -120 *1.2 to win 1

Spain is sending out a former high draft pick who is currently pitching for the Astros' Triple A affiliate. That makes me wonder if it's worth taking +6.5. They also have a few other MLB prospects. Obviously, Puerto Rico is a big favorite but winning by 7 runs is not an easy task even against the inferior team.
 
Is Puerto Rico that good? Maybe I'm oblvious, but I don't like their roster that much.
 
adding

USA ML / Cuba ML -1.12 to win 1

let me just say I NEVER win any parlay. so I'm pretty sure this one will lose as well but I have to take it. I will be on Cuba RL once its available. I think Taiwan shot their loads against Japan and still came up short. Cuba should destroy that depleted pitching.
 
12-8-0 +4.53

kicking myself for not taking Spain after thinking about it all morning... and what a disgraceful game by USA... ugh...

Adding,

Cuba -1.5 -150 *1.5 to win 1
 
13-8-0 +5.53

Saturday
Venezuela ML -150 *3 to win 2
USA vs Italy over 10 -115 *1.15 to win 1
Canada vs Mexico over 9.5 -115 *1.15 to win 1
 
I will be so disgusted if USA doesn't even put up a fight against Italy. I know its still early but my god.
 
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