Dapper Dan Picks - 24/25 Season Long Thread

DapperDan

DapperDan

Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
2023-24 Season: 96-90 (-9.19 units)

Last season was rough with a lot of ups and downs, we did learn a few tricks to improve our handicapping. One thing remains true in sports betting is we’re human - and so are the players - and we are influenced by our emotions and circumstances around us. So we ride the waves, the heaters, the losing streaks - and continue to tread on. Last year, I had my daughter Isabella born and changed my perspective on a lot of things. This year, we have more reasons than ever to focus on what we’ve learned over the last 20 years betting and place better bets and hit at a higher %. Here’s all the years I’ve posted online on forums and now I currently track on Bestamp as well. Good luck to all in the season:

NCAAF Posted Records:
2012: 80-58 (+22.3 units)
2013: 96-97 (+10.62 units)
2014: 66-87 (-27.55 units)
2015: 82-54 (+26.98 units)
2016: 65-67 (-5.37 units)
2017: 74-66 (+1.41 units)
2018: 72-90 (-20.19 units)
2019: 70-68 (+0.87 units)
2020: 70-64 (+1.63 units)
2021: 89-63 (+25.68 units)
2022: 56-62 (-18.86 units)
2023: 96-90 (-9.19 units)

Lifetime Total: 916-866 (+8.33 units) (51.4% win %)

2024-25:
Week 0:
Georgia Tech +10.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
We have the more experienced team, GT is ranked 24th on PS’s experience chart and FSU is ranked 73rd in exp returning with only 24% of their total yard production, and 50% of their tackles on defense. I loved watching GT starting QB Haynes King develop over the year and he knows how to run the ball, and when to do it and just enough to get the chains moving. He has an excellent returning offensive line, with losing all but one, and have 128 starts under their belt - last year they ranked 13th in ypa on the ground and 25th in sack % allowed. Their great numbers are a good reflection of their head coach, Brent Key, who took over after Geoff Collins was fired in ‘22 and he had a long history as an offensive line coach, including 3 years under Nick Saban at Alabama. On defense, which needed help, GT brings in new DC Tyler Santucci, who was DC over at Duke last year where they only allowed 19 ppg. Key brought in 9 transfers and 5 starters return and the defense should be in a better position to not get in shootout’s every game like last season. FSU is a completely revamped team losing many to the draft and transfer portal and only 5 returning starters on both sides of the ball. I’ve never been a fan of DJ Ulagalelei, back to his Clemson days he seemed to be slow and clumsy in the pocket and inaccurate under pressure. He always had a great team around him. I think the more experienced team keeps this one close and wouldn’t be surprised if they come out with an upset against their ACC rival to kick off the season in another country. Lowing scoring and maybe sprinkle some on King rushing yards.
 
I agree taking the points only way to go, Noles gotta replace a lot and they will be better as season goes but tech has a ton back especially on offense. I like king rush yards and think gotta take the points as well. I might do 1sr half i dunno. Good to see ya buddy. Gl this year
 
Thanks Fellas - Glad to see you all back and looking forward to seeing what you all got too.
This week 1 card sucks though - haha

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 1-0 (+1 unit)

Week 1:
Jacksonville State ML (-138)
Temple/Oklahoma Under 58 (-107)

More to come Saturday Morning….Good luck all

Week 1:
Jacksonville State ML (-138) Risking 1.38 units to win 1 units
I love me some Rich Rod rushing attacks - especially against a notoriously porous defense on the ground - Coastal Carolina ranked 101st last year in yards per rush allowed and although they beat Jacksonville State last season 30-16 - there were a couple big plays and turnovers that made the difference. Coastal Carolina struggles to run the ball too, and Jax State is very stout upfront - ranking 4th last year only allowing 2.8 yards per carry. In last year's matchup, Jax State controlled the line of scrimmage, only allowing Coastal Carolina to rack up 131 yards on 45 carries (2.91 ypc) and 77 of those yards came on one run late in the 4th - so if you exclude that - they actually ran for 54 yards on 44 carries - yikes. Jax State in contrast ran for 185 yards on 45 carries (4.13 ypc). Both teams come back pretty inexperienced - with Jax State slightly more and thankfully their most experienced unit is their defensive backs who showed improvement over the season. I think Rich Rod’s system and the revenge game at home to kick off the season is very important for this team who has had a big turnaround since RichRod has taken over and in their 3rd year together- on the other side we just have Tim Beck who has jumped around a lot of good top teams but always just as on OC but first time as a head coach in his 2nd year with a weak supporting cast of coordinators.

Temple/Oklahoma Under 58 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma with a new starting QB here in the first game of the season - lets hope for some growing pains. They also have a whole new offensive line as none of the starters return - although they are very experienced but they are mostly transfers and shifting around so they may take some time to jive. I doubt Temple will be able to put up 14 as most of Oklahoma’s defense returns and we’ve already seen dramatic improvement under returning head coach/defensive guru Brent Venables in his 2nd year he reduced the ppg by a TD to 23.5 last season. Temple is a very inexperienced team too ranking #129th in PS exp chart - they have also had 6 new head coaches in the 7 years before Stan Drayton took over and this his 2nd year. He has a very bland offense and there’s nothing special about his coordinators - this team has gone downhill tremendously since Rhule left in 2019. This game should probably end like 42-7 and stay comfortably under the total.
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 1: (1-1) -0.38 units
Season YTD: (2-1) +0.62 units

Good Luck All - That’s it for today - writeups short but sweet as we wait for the stats to pour in on the season.

Week 1 adds:
Iowa -22.5 (-108)
WVU +8 (-110)
Vtech -13 (-110)
UNLV +3.5 (-114) 2x
Northwestern -2.5 (-120)
ND/TexasAM over 46 (-110)

Iowa -22.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Iowa returns 8 starters on a defense that was one of the best in the country - and 77% of their total tackles. Their offense returns 10 starters and a healthy Cade McNamara and although their offense has persistently struggled for YEARS finally the nepotism responsible for allowing the poor performance for so long - has ended as they finally ousted Kirk Ferentz son - Brian Ferentz who was a long time shitty offensive coordinator for Iowa. In comes Tim Lester who will bring a whole new offense, and I expect them to be rejuvenated and play with much more confidence under better play calling. Their defense coordinator is still Phil Parker (and has been for 13 years) and he finally won the Broyles award last year - expect his defense to be stout as always - especially against this FCS opponent. I really don’t know much about Illinois State - but I’m confident Iowa can hold them to under 2 TDs so can their offense put up 30+? I think they will do their best to establish their new offense and even get a defensive TD or two.

WVU +8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
In last year's renewed rivalvry matchup to start off the season, Penn State was 20 point favorites and covered - winning by 23. This year the books know it should be a one TD game or less, as Penn State only returns 6 starters on offense, and 7 on defense. Their offensive line is completely revamped and the new guys only have 45 career starts - ranking #112th in the nation. They will have to keep pace with a WVU offense, that returns nearly in-tact with 8 returning starters including Garret Greene at QB who developed nicely over the season and will be in his 3rd year starting with the same in-house promoted offensive coordinator - Chad Scott. They will surely have some tricks drawn up against a Penn State team who is bringing in two new coordinators under James Franklin. Drew Allar will also be without his top two WR’s from last season. Hopefully WVU’s defense will improve this season and they have a lot of new faces out there but their offense was able to keep them in most games last season regardless and I think they will keep this one close too against their cross town football who are only a few hour drive away.

Vtech -13 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Vtech comes back the #2 ranked experienced team for PS with 11 starters on offense and 10 on defense back. Not only are they very experienced but in their 3rd year together with their cohesive coaching staff under Brent Pry, with the same two coordinators - you have to expect they will come out strong after losing 3 of their first 4 last season, and the infamous season opener against Old Dominion in Pry’s first year. On the other side, Clark Lea is under a lot of pressure to perform as his team returned to the 2-10 form from his 1st year after slightly improving the year before to 5-7. They bring over New Mexico State’s offensive coordinator and QB Diego Paiva, but this isn’t a conference USA defense like they are accustomed to seeing. Vanderbilt averaged 14 points less than their opponents allowed all season and I don’t see why they wouldn’t lose by that much in this one.


UNLV +3.5 (-115) Risking 2.3 units to win 2 units
UNLV went from 5-7 to 9-5 under Barry Odom and his two coordinators and although they lost their starting back field, their new QB will have plenty experience as Sluka and Williams are both saw a lot of action from their FCS transfers and Sluka was a Walter Payton award finalist each of the last two years. On the other side you have Houston with a whole new coaching staff, interestingly enough both his coordinators have been ae 3 different programs the last 3 years as well so I don’t expect them to be well synced to an already depleted Houston team that went from 12-2 in ‘21 to 8-5 in ‘22 to 4-8 last year. They brought in transfer Donovan Smith who got benched over at Texas Tech as he struggled at decision making and pocket presence. Both their offense and defense only return 5 starters so this is a whole new system on the down trend against an established up-tempo offense, with experienced play callers and dual threat options to run their RPO. Our biggest bet of Week 1 - our only 2 unit play - we love the points.

Northwestern -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
NW quietly won 4 of their last 5 upsetting Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland and Illinois. They looked like a mess in the beginning of the season. You would have been crazy to put on them considering the firing of Pat Fitgerald but David Braun did a great job and has 15 returning starters and an experienced transfer starting QB in Mike Wright. Last time they faced off in 2022, Miami Ohio came up with the upset but I don’t expect that result in this one. Miami Oh has 6 returning starters on both sides of the ball and somehow they went 11-3 despite only average 25 ppg - their defense led them by only allowing 16 ppg but they certainly weren’t any BIG 10 opponents and their SOS comparison is HUGE compared to NW. Brett Gabbert is back starting after being knocked out by injury halfway through the season for the last two years - he isn’t very good and is a “game manager” at best. He has all new WR’s and RBs behind him and this will be a much higher caliber defense then they are used to.


ND/TexasAM over 46 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I was leaning heavy on the over just looking at the line-ups with our boy Riley Leonard transferring from Duke and Connor Weigman returning under center for Texas AM after getting knocked out by injury last season after the first 3 games, he looked great. Almost every preview and prediction article I read is heavily supporting the under, which is why it is holding the low number but I think the playmakijng abilities of our QBs will do just enough to get us over this low total of 46 - especially in this new age with a two minute time out….
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 1: (4-4) +0.32 units
Season YTD: (5-4) +1.32 units

More to come tomorrow morning.

Week 2:
Northwestern ML (-115)
Northwestern has this game circled on their calendar as Duke has beat them the last 5 times they've played since 2017 almost every year - but this is the first time NW has the more cohesive and experienced team. NW should control this game at the line of scrimmage like they did last week where they ran for 150 yards on 31 yards and 4.84 ypc with QB Mike Wright racking up 65 yards on the ground too. On defense, NW’s front held Miami OH to 40 yards on 24 carries averaging 1.67 ypc and it’s hard to believe we don’t see a similar mismatch against this new Duke team who ran for 2.19 ypc against Elon last week. Duke has a whole new coaching staff this season since Elko departed so expect some more growing pains. They are a very young and inexperienced o-line, ranking 119th in total starts before the season. Maalik Murphy hasn’t seen a BIG 10 defense and had a lot more weapons around him last year in the few games he came in relief for Texas but don’t think he’s the type of QB to take over a game when the run game isn’t working. Northwestern squeaks out an old fashioned low scoring BIG 10 defensive battle.
 
DapperDan said:
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 1: (4-4) +0.32 units
Season YTD: (5-4) +1.32 units

More to come tomorrow morning.

Week 2:
Northwestern ML (-115)
Northwestern has this game circled on their calendar as Duke has beat them the last 5 times they've played since 2017 almost every year - but this is the first time NW has the more cohesive and experienced team. NW should control this game at the line of scrimmage like they did last week where they ran for 150 yards on 31 yards and 4.84 ypc with QB Mike Wright racking up 65 yards on the ground too. On defense, NW’s front held Miami OH to 40 yards on 24 carries averaging 1.67 ypc and it’s hard to believe we don’t see a similar mismatch against this new Duke team who ran for 2.19 ypc against Elon last week. Duke has a whole new coaching staff this season since Elko departed so expect some more growing pains. They are a very young and inexperienced o-line, ranking 119th in total starts before the season. Maalik Murphy hasn’t seen a BIG 10 defense and had a lot more weapons around him last year in the few games he came in relief for Texas but don’t think he’s the type of QB to take over a game when the run game isn’t working. Northwestern squeaks out an old fashioned low scoring BIG 10 defensive battle.
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I'll be tailing this play this evening as I believe you hit the nail on the head with your reasoning, BOL Dan
 
Thanks CJG. Ugh - last night was brutal as had some on the under too.....fricking the whole day I was hoping they used Wright's leg's more then they decide to use on a strech play on 3rd and 1 and lose 8 yards and that was the game. ARGH! and that was a fumble too!

Week 2: (0-1) -1.15 units
Season YTD: (5-5) +0.17 units

No writeups until Week 4 atleast so we have more stats to pull from and I have more time. Not enough time in the day - can we get it all in?

Week 2 Adds:
Texas -6 (-110)
Rutgers -23 (-105)
Iowa ML (-127)
Michigan State +10 (-110)
Kansas/Illinois over 55 (-125)
Oklahoma -27.5 (-110)
Tenn/NC State Over 59 (-110)
Texas Tech ML (+106) 2x (2 UNITS)
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 2: (4-5) -2.77 units
Season YTD: (9-9) -1.45 units

Couple bad beats last week. Starting to make some spreadsheets but only two games (some only one bc FCS opponents don't track) to pull data from - argh- next week we come back with write-ups FIRING! More adds in the morning

Week 3:
Arizona +7.5 (-110)
 
BOL, Dan, always love to see what you're on. Took Arizona TT over 27 myself and agree on AZ +7'. Excited to check out the "red-cat" unis tonight.
 
Thanks BiffT. How many years we been doing this now? Lol. Never had 3 losing season in a row - were headed for the green!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: (9-10) -2.55 units

Week 3 Adds:
LSU/South Carolina Under 48.5 (-115)
Notre Dame -7 (-120)
WVU ML (-120)
UF +4 (-120)
Washington -4.5 (-110)
Indiana ML (-157)
UCF +2.5 (-104) 2x
 
DapperDan said:
Thanks BiffT. How many years we been doing this now? Lol. Never had 3 losing season in a row - were headed for the green!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: (9-10) -2.55 units

Week 3 Adds:
LSU/South Carolina Under 48.5 (-115)
Notre Dame -7 (-120)
WVU ML (-120)
UF +4 (-120)
Washington -4.5 (-110)
Indiana ML (-157)
UCF +2.5 (-104) 2x
Click to expand...
Let's go Dan!
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 3: (3-5) -1.75 units
Season YTD: (12-14) -3.2 units

Week 4:
San Jose State +12.5 (-110)
West Virginia ML (-125)
Rutgers +4 (-120)

More to come tomorrow.

San Jose State +12.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
San Jose State has a new HC this year - the old great Navy head coach - Ken Niumatalolo who led the triple option attack for so many years and was successful up until 2020 when teams seemed to finally figure out a defense to stuff but from 2009 to 2019 he had a 90-54 record as head coach and got them into the AAC from being independent. The twist is he brings in a new OC, Craig Stutzmann, who is a pass-heavy play caller from Hawaii from 2016-2019 and then ironically enough was at Wash State in 2020 when he and 4 other assistant coaches got fired for failing to comply with vax mandates. You think he’s motivated to win this game and pull out all the tricks? He has the weapons with new starting sophomore Emmett Brown who has completed 60% of his passes for almost 1000 yards and 8.8 ypa and 9 TDs and 2 INTs. He’s small 5-10 but can sling the ball around with his good form and technique. Wash State’’s QB John Mateer is not nearly the same passing threat but can beat you with his legs. Although against weak competition, San Jose’s front has been their strength, holding offenses to 2.4 ypc on the season. They also rank #5th in opponent yards per pass, and #6th in completion % allowed - all be it against weak competition. San Jose State has also much higher rankings in PFF in tackling ranking 40th and Wash State ranks one of the league’s worst 128th - and they also rank 18th in special teams where Wash State ranks 88th. I think Ken brings his team ready to play and they keep this one close and could even win outright.

West Virginia ML (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Oy vey - am I really betting WVU again? I suppose so as it’s clear with the loss of OC Andy Kotelnicki this is not the same Kansas team as they only put up 20 pts against UNLV and 17 against Illinois. Jalon Daniels has twice as many INTs then he does TDs and it’s been against soft competition. WVU is 1-2 with two losses against two tough teams, Pitt and Penn State but I think this veteran squad bounces back and wins this one - they are very disciplined ranking 18th in penalties per play compared to Kansas’s 61st ranking. Aside from that you won’t see too many stat advantages but that's because of the difference in competition and WVU ranks 31st in Sagarins SOS rankings where Kansas ranks 58th. Kansas may regress back to its 2023 form where it was below .500 as coaching and play calling is crucial and Andy led that explosive offense last year has left for Penn State.

Rutgers +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Buy the half point while you can. These are two of the most experienced teams facing off as both return a lot of the same players and rank 2nd and 8th in PHIL Steele’s experience chart. With the same coaching staffs back too and Rutgers getting a major upgrade at QB, I don’t see how they lose this game by more than 4 points. Last year, with a lot of the same players, Rutgers dominated the line of scrimmage and ran for 256 yards and 7.53 ypc while holding Vtech to 129 yards and 3.31 ypc and won the game easily 35-16. This line feels a little trappy considering those facts but I think Schiano has Brent out-schemed and the market doesn’t value Rutgers as much as it does Vtech. Also the PFF numbers show huge advantages to Rutgers as they rank 1st in offense, 1st in passing, and 1st in runblocking but should be taken lightly considering their competition to date but I think they still keep this one close on the road.
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 3: (3-5) -1.75 units
Season YTD: (13-14) -2.2 units

Week 4:
San Jose State +12.5 (-110) W
West Virginia ML (-125)
Rutgers +4 (-120)


Week 4 Adds:
USC/Mich over 44 (-104)
Tulsa +3 (-108)
Iowa ML (-130)
Georgia Tech +10.5 (-114)
Tennessee -6 (-115)
Miami/USF Under 65 (-104)
ECU/Liberty Under 54.5 (-111)
Purdue/Oregon State Over 50 (-104)

USC/Mich over 44 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
This total is just too low for these teams with all the playmakers they have on offense. Lincoln Riley seems to have found his QB in Miller Moss and he’s completing 70% of his passes and has a few goliaths to throw the football to like Kyron Hudson who helped put up 27 in their opener against LSU. Michigan’s defense has been lacking this season, ranking 53rd overall, and especially in coverage, ranking 79th - their run defense has been stout so USC will be slinging the ball around per usual. USC has struggled on defense according to PFF as it always has - ranking 91st overall, 81st in pass blocking, 87th in coverage, and 82nd in run defense. They were times against LSU their defensive players were taking each other out of the play. I think USC can run away with this one but am more comfortable with the under and expect some big plays on both sides of the ball, and maybe even special teams to send this one well over the total.

Tulsa +3 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Can’t say I’ve watched much of either of these teams in the last few years, but I like what the PFF numbers are showing in favor of Tulsa. Their offense is very experienced, ranking 19th in % of yards returning. La Tech on the other hand is one of the least experienced teams ranking 118th in PS’s exp chart. Despite playing tougher competition, Tulsa has strong advantages in PFF on both sides of the ball. Their offense outranks LA Tech’s defense by an average of 71 yards ranks across all categories including 97th in overall offense as Tulsa offense ranks 26th and LA tech ranks 123rd. On defense, Tulsa just slightly outranks this horrible LA Tech ofense that rank 117th. LA tech is very one dimensional, ranking 116th in the run game and 129th in run blocking and stopping the run is the one strength of Tulsa’s defense ranking 52nd allowing 3.7 ypc. Also I see a big coaching advantage as 1st time head coach for LA Tech - Sonny Cumbie has gone 3-9 the last two years here as a head. Kevin Wilson on the other side is much more experience over the years and although doesnt sport great numbers, he has worked with some good coaches and has Steve Spurrier Jr as his OC. Tulsa should pull off an upset here.

Iowa ML (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Iowa again - one of my fav teams this year as they nearly have the same great defnse as last year and a new offense - finally. Took a 55 yard field goal and lots of breaks to lose to a very good Iowa State team. New starting QB for Minnesota Max Brosmer has not seen a defense like this as although experienced - it’s all been at the FCS level - expect him to get a few turnovers. Minnesota is 3-0 but against weak competition and in two of those games they struggled to establish the run. Iowa outranks Minnesota in almost every counter position in PFF and is the better team this year and they will pull off this win on the road.

Georgia Tech +10.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Louisville hasn't really played anyone so it’s hard to get a good read on them but I’ll take the experienced Georgia Tech team to keep this one close. Haynes King has been stellar - completing 76% of his passes for almost 1000 yards, 6 TDs through the air and only 1 INT. Add to that another 158 yards on the ground at 6.32 ypa and 3 more TDs and this offense is definitely in sync. They have scored in every red zone opportunity, ranked #17th in 3rd down conversion, 23rd in 4th down conversions, Haynes King has yet to be sacked - they are rushing for 5.6 ypc and Lousiville despite the soft competition have allowed 4.1 ypc against their opponents. On the other side we have Tyler Shough, who’s been injured almost every year for the last 6 years, he transferred out of T. Tech last year and was on the verge of being benched before being injured and leading the Raiders to a 1-3 start - the only win being Tarleton State. Louisville lost almost it’s entire offense - ranking 126th in % of yards returned so I expect their to be some hiccups and G. Tech should keep this one close.

Tennessee -6 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I’m a believer in this year’s Tennessee's team - Josh Heupel is one of the great offensive minds and he has all the tools this year to take his team to the playoffs. He has this game circled as Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops fired him back in 2014 - which actually took his career to the next level as from their he moved to Missouri where he led one of the best offenses, to UCF, to now Tennessee. His starting QB Nico Iamaleava, 6’6’ redshirt freshman has been tailored for this offense after a little action last year including a 45-0 beat down of Iowa in the bowl game last year. He is completing over 70 % of his passes and rushing for 6 ypc. They have put up 50+ in all 3 of their games, granted their competition has been weak but they should win this one by at least a TD. On the other side, Oklahoma is going through a transition after losing Gabriel to the portal - Jackson Arnold isn’t nearly the caliber of player and through more INT’s then TDs in his bowl game against Arizona last year - and is only averaging 5.6 yards per attempt this season! Oklahoma’s PFF numbers show they are not nearly the same team on offense - ranking 123rd overall, 66th in pass blocking, 71st in passing, 124 in receiving, 90th in run game, and 128th in run blocking. Tennessee’s offense outranks them tremendously and I think they don’t take their foot off the pedal as they know they have a tough schedule up coming against real SEC teams, (HA!) in Bama and UGA so they need to win this game handedly as even if they don’t end up winning their conference they can still make the playoffs with the super awesome new 12 team bracket.

Miami/USF Under 65 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Was leaning Miami with only 17 points but after digging into this game I was more comfortable with the under. Miami’s D Line has been dominant this season, ranking 3rd in the pass rush and 15th in run defense - not to mention they are the 2nd highest rarest defense, 1st in coverage and 29th in tackling. This has been an area where USF has struggled as they rank 121st in pass blocking and 110th in run blocking. Although they haven't been great, USF defense should step up for this big game against their ranked in-state opponent - I have Todd Orlando as one of the higher rated defensive coordinator’s as he has a long career as DC and improved most of his programs defensive YPP allowed throughout. USF has played up to their competition, especially on the defensive side like last year's bowl game when they smashed Syracuse 45-0. I think MIami wins a comfortable 35-17 and we stay well under the total - here in Florida this time of year, you can expect rain every day so that might slow down these offenses and if Miami gets a lead early - expect them to just milk the clock.

ECU/Liberty Under 54.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Surprisingly both these defenses have held their opponents to 17 ppg this season. Liberty is a run heavy team and ECU run defense has been their strength, allowing 2.3 ypc on the season ranking #8th. ECU has struggled to run only averaging 3.5 ypc and Liberty has held its opponents to 2.8 ypc on the season so neither team should have much of a run game. Both offensive lines have also struggled giving up sakcs with ECU ranking #112 in sack % allowed and Liberty ranking #91st. This should be a big problem for ECU as Liberty has racked up a lot of sacks - ranking 20th in sack %. In PFF both defenses outrank their offensive counterparts in every category - the biggest concern is the tackling as both these teams suck at tackling but I think this should stay well under the total

Purdue/Oregon State Over 50 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
No write-up sorry
 
DapperDan said:
Thanks BiffT. How many years we been doing this now? Lol. Never had 3 losing season in a row - were headed for the green!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: (9-10) -2.55 units

Week 3 Adds:
LSU/South Carolina Under 48.5 (-115)
Notre Dame -7 (-120)
WVU ML (-120)
UF +4 (-120)
Washington -4.5 (-110)
Indiana ML (-157)
UCF +2.5 (-104) 2x
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What's up, Dan? Think it's been about 20 years, back to the SBR days. Love reading your insight. BOL today man!
 
BiffTFinancial said:
What's up, Dan? Think it's been about 20 years, back to the SBR days. Love reading your insight. BOL today man!
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Thanks bud - you too and always reading your articles lurking when not football season lol I only cap college now but tail all yall often but don’t post. Just had my first daughter a year old so it’s a lot of fun and bout to give me the good vibes and go on a nice run- figured out some better way to make spreadsheets.

Gtech was rough loss today
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 4: (8-2) +5.84 units
Season YTD: (20-16) +2.62 units

Week 5:
Washington +3 (-114)
UCF/Colorado Over 62.5 (-115)
Duke ML (-135)
EMU -14 (-102)
Oregon -24 (-111)

Not much time for write-ups so they're short. More to come tomorrow. We heating up 🔥

Week 5:
Washington +3 (-114) Riksing 1.14 units to win 1 units
Sadly going against my guy Schiano here but the numbers show this is a a good bet. Surprisingly, despite being 3-0, the PFF numbers for Rutgers aren’t the best - ranking 48th in overall defense, 41st in pass rush, 25th in coverage, and have struggled against the run especially - ranking 104th and tackling ranking 90th. They have allowed opponents to run for 6.5 ypc against them ranking 128th. Washington’s defense has been much more stout - ranking 26th overall, 33rd in coverage, 12 against the run and 1st in tackling. We also show two big mismatches for Washington in short starting field drive situations - on Offense, Washington ranks 39th in scoring on short drives, an area where Rutgers defense has struggled ranking 80th. For Washington’s defense, they have been great in those short starting field situations ranking 10th in the nation at stopping offenses- where Rutgers offense might just stop themselves as they rank 112th in short field starting situations. I think Will Rogers and Washington rise to the occasion after the loss in Washington. They came back strong last week with a good 24-5 win against a good NW team.

UCF/Colorado Over 62.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
This one lights up green for the over on all my spreadsheets. Especially in favor of UCF’s offense as they outrank this Colorado defense in a number of categories. For UCF’s offense, they outrank Colorado by an average of 40 ranks across all FEI categories. Deion’s kids are especially bad at allowing the big play - ranking 76th in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 53rd in plays over 7+ yards. UCF offense has plenty of those big chunk plays with KJ Jefferson running the offese - they rank 28th in plays over 10+ yards and 7th in plays over 7+ yards. UCF and Colorado are both in the Top 15 of plays per game - so they move fast and Deion wants the ball in his kids hands more then anybody so they throw it 63% of the time. UCF’s coverage hasn’t been great ranking 67th in PFF so they should hit some deep throws and they rank 4th in the nation with 11 passing plays of 30+ yards. This has all the signs of a shootout.

Duke ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
Duke gets a nice little revenge game at home after losing the last 5 straight years to UNC - but this year the definitely have the better team - especially their Defense. UNC’s defense has been atrocious - allowing 35.7 ppg (#109th) and 6.3 ypp (#101st) and it really isn’t even been against tough competition - ranking 127th in Sagarin's SOS rankings. Duke’s defense in contrast has been great despite the departure of Mike Elko - they brought in another defensive guru in Manny Diaz. Duke’s defense has allowed 19.3 ppg (#34th) and only 4 ypp (#15). Duke’s biggest strength has been their secondary, that ranks 7th in PFF, 2nd in opponents yards per pass, and 29th in completion %. UNC’s secondary is their weakness - ranking 104th in PFF, #126 in opponents ypp and 52nd in competition % allowed. Also expect us to have some turnovers in our favor as Duke currently ranks #10 in TO margin per game where UNC ranks #123 - another huge mismatch. Duke finally wins this rivalry matchup at home!

EMU -14 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Did you hear what happened to Kent State? Their Starting QB and then their back-up QB got injured last week against Penn State putting Junior Tommy Ulatowski back under center. Last year he started a few games for Kent State and earned a PFF ranking of 253rd in passing - that means a lot of backups graded out better than he did. He completed less than 50% of his passes and they did not win a game he played in. On the other side, EMU has Cole Snyder who has plenty of experience and has transferred from Rutgers to Buffalo to EMU where he’s had a mediocre career and has shown to be more than capable running the offense this season - so far on the season ranking 30th in passing in PFF. Both defenses are probably equally bad - but EMU shows significant FEI and PFF advantages as their offense is capable of moving the ball. In FEI EMU’s offense outranks Kent State’s defense by an average of 62 ranks accross all categories - and their defense 11 ranks. Also in big plays allowed over 4+ yards, kent state rank’s a league worst 134, 133rd in over 7+ yards allowed, and 134th in 10+ yards plays allowed. Also we have an advantage as Kent State has especially struggled at pass blocking - ranking 120th in PFF, a strength of this EMU team that ranks 31st in the pass rush. EMU should pull away in the 4th although I won’t be watching this one or ever watch these teams - the numbers show a big enough mismatch to make this a 1 unit play.

Oregon -24 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
A nice way to cap the night, PFF, FEI, and F+ rankings show HUGE mismatches on BOTH SIDES of the ball. UCLA should get smashed. No write-up


Last Week Results posted below for easier tracking:
Weel 4:
San Jose State +12.5 (-110) W
West Virginia ML (-125) W
Rutgers +4 (-120) W
USC/Mich over 44 (-104) W
Tulsa +3 (-108) W
Iowa ML (-130) W
Georgia Tech +10.5 (-114) L
Tennessee -6 (-115) W
Miami/USF Under 65 (-104) P
ECU/Liberty Under 54.5 (-111) L
Purdue/Oregon State Over 50 (-104) W
 
Good get on udub number, I’ll prob play the ml but if I could get +3 I might take. Think they catch a break getting to start big10 life @ Rutgers on a Friday night opposed to 11am 2marro. Rutgers allowing 6.5 a carry on ground is scary bad! Gl this week.

great job last week btw.
 
DapperDan said:
Thanks bud - you too and always reading your articles lurking when not football season lol I only cap college now but tail all yall often but don’t post. Just had my first daughter a year old so it’s a lot of fun and bout to give me the good vibes and go on a nice run- figured out some better way to make spreadsheets.

Gtech was rough loss today
Click to expand...
Hey, Dan - congrats on the daughter, man! We had our 4th (a daughter) almost two years ago and it's so much fun. Of course, my older daughter is getting ready to head off to college next fall so my life is about as well thought-out as my plays some weeks 🤔

That GT loss was rough, hard to feel like we had the wrong side with +10' losing by 12 thanks to pick-6 then late blocked FG returned for TD. Oh well, have to remind myself that no matter how good a play is, luck is always required to get to the window (even if it's just the absence of bad luck). BOL this weekend, brotha, great job last week!
 
2daBank said:
Good get on udub number, I’ll prob play the ml but if I could get +3 I might take. Think they catch a break getting to start big10 life @ Rutgers on a Friday night opposed to 11am 2marro. Rutgers allowing 6.5 a carry on ground is scary bad! Gl this week.

great job last week btw.
Click to expand...


Thanks bank - saved by the half bought point! Sounded pricey at time I think my actual book was a bit higher as I use betstamp to track and got early in week

Ya they did it Friday night so the zebras could make any calls they wanted - took a bunch of stops inside the 5, ton of terrible calls and breaks, and a few missed fg to have to push this one. SHOULDA WON ML!
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Hey, Dan - congrats on the daughter, man! We had our 4th (a daughter) almost two years ago and it's so much fun. Of course, my older daughter is getting ready to head off to college next fall so my life is about as well thought-out as my plays some weeks 🤔

That GT loss was rough, hard to feel like we had the wrong side with +10' losing by 12 thanks to pick-6 then late blocked FG returned for TD. Oh well, have to remind myself that no matter how good a play is, luck is always required to get to the window (even if it's just the absence of bad luck). BOL this weekend, brotha, great job last week!
Click to expand...
Thanks bud. Congrats on your fam and to your daughter for college, I've started late at 37 but I think I'd like to have a few more lol.
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 4: (8-2) +5.84 units
Season YTD: (20-16) +2.62 units

Sorry guys - was trying to have more write-ups today but I caught some day care virus, my daughter did too, and my 19 year old beagle Blazer is on his last legs and will probably have to put him down on Monday we have a vet appointment. So please bare with the short, hurried write-ups and I’m missing a few. Saved by the extra half point we bought early in the week but gawddam them refs and every break possible fell Rutgers way to win that game by 3.

Week 5 Adds:
Oklahoma/Auburn Under 45 (-117)
Illinois/Penn Stat Under 48.5 (-110)
SMU -6 (-106)
USF/Tulane over 61.5 (-109)
N. Illinois +7.5 (-102)
WKU +7.5 (-105)
Kentucky +16 (-106)

Oklahoma/Auburn Under 45 (-117)
Both of these teams are going through QB transitions and have strong advantages to the defenses. Last week, freshman Michael Hawkins took over for Jackson Arnold who was inept throwing the ball but a lot of their issues are also the players around him. In overall offense Oklahoma ranks 125th in PFF, 105th in pass blocking, 121st in receiving, 124th in run game and 119th in run blocking. Auburn’s defensive counterparts to each position - out rank the offensive position by an average of 80 ranks across all categories as they rank 24th overall. They should make life a living hell for freshman Michael Hawkins who caught Tennessee with their pants down for a small 4th QTR come back last week - Auburn ranks 40th in the pass rush in PFF. Their rush defense is their best quality, ranking 24th. Auburn has it’s own offensive woe wisth Payton Thorne on the verge of being benched, he played a little better last week against Arkansas’s defense but that’s not saying much. Oklahoma’s defense is the real deal under mastermind Brent Venables -he has turned this into a defensive program who ranks 11th overall in PFF, 3rd in the pass rush, 79th in coverage, and 17th against the run. Auburn has struggled with protection ranking 69th in pass blocking so Thorne should be on the run and under pressure. In FEI both defenses outranks their offense counter stat - Auburns by an average of 25 ranks across all categories and Oklahomas by an average of 54 ranks across all categories. Both defenses are extremely efficient at not giving up the big play or even plays over 10+ yards so I expect this one to be low scoring although I hate unders.

Illinois/Penn Stat Under 48.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Another Under, oooooof. Penn State has one of the best defenses again. Not only do they rank 16th overall in PFF, 10 in the pass rush, 53rd in coverage and 8th against the run - they also are some of the best in long scoring drive situations and low scoring drive situations - ranking 1st and 7th in those two categories. Illinois can’t put together a long drive if they wanted to ranking 97th in those situations.

SMU -6 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
FSU still be overvalued after squeaking out a win to Cal last week? I read an article that talked about how improved their defense was last week, but still its just Cal and one week. By PFF measures - their defense is still pretty terrible, ranking 67th overall, 102nd in coverage, 79th against the run, and 82nd in tackling. This leave for huge mismatches for SMU’s offenses in PFF and their offensive counter positions outrank FSU’s defense by an average of 23 ranks across all categories. If you think thats bad - wait til you see the PFF mismatches for FSU’s offense vs SMU’s defense - the average across all categories is 75 ranks! And DJ is especially bad under pressure, which his offensive line can’t block for their lives ranking 108th in pass blocking and 112th in run blocking. SMU’s pass rush ranks 25th in the nation in PFF. I expecta blowout here.

No writeups for last few:
USF/Tulane over 61.5 (-109)
N. Illinois +7.5 (-102)
WKU +7.5 (-105)
Kentucky +16 (-106)
 
DapperDan said:
Thanks bank - saved by the half bought point! Sounded pricey at time I think my actual book was a bit higher as I use betstamp to track and got early in week

Ya they did it Friday night so the zebras could make any calls they wanted - took a bunch of stops inside the 5, ton of terrible calls and breaks, and a few missed fg to have to push this one. SHOULDA WON ML!
Click to expand...

I didn’t realize they scored again to get within 3, I gave up on it with the ml. That was a god awful officiated game, I still don’t understand why they took the udub blocked fg away? Cause a kid took 1 step onto field like right before I suppose the play was officially over? That was the game right there handing Rutgers a 10 point lead before half. Game was frustrating sitting there watching on what was the better team most the game yet losing the whole dang time.
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 5: (8-3) +4.63 units
Season YTD: (28-19) +7.25 units

LETS KEEP THE FIRE ROLLING

NO WRITEUPS FOR TONIGHT - too busy with work and child but will get some out tomorrow morning for tomorrows games.

Week 6:
Oregon -23 (-110)
Syracuse +6 (-103)

Week 5 Results:
Week 5: 8-3 (+4.63 units)
Washington +3 (-114) P
UCF/Colorado Over 62.5 (-115) W
Duke ML (-135) W
EMU -14 (-102) W
Oregon -24 (-111) L
Oklahoma/Auburn Under 45 (-117) L
Illinois/Penn Stat Under 48.5 (-110) W
SMU -6 (-106) W
USF/Tulane over 61.5 (-109) L
N. Illinois +7.5 (-102) W
WKU +7.5 (-105) W
Kentucky +16 (-106) W
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: (28-19) +7.25 units

My freaking power was out all last night and didn't get a good nights sleep so some of the write-ups are short and I couldn't get them all in. Annoying loss last night with Oregon too thats two weeks straight they shoulda covered but didn't - who kicks a FG down by 24 points with 30 seconds left.

Week 6 Adds:
Boston College +2 (-110)
SMU/Louisville Over 55.5 (-105)
Iowa +18 (-102)
Georgia -22 (-104)
USC -8 (-104)
South Carolina +9.5 (-105)
Iowa State -11 (-104)
ODU +5 (-105)
Mich/Wash Under 41.5 (-115)
ULL/Southern Miss over 56.5 (-110)
Miami -10 (-104)

Week 6 adds:
Boston College +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Castellanos is back and I’m seeing big edges for Boston College in a lot of areas in stats, as well as a harder schedule according to Sagarin (49 to 79 rank). In PFF, UVA defense has really struggled, ranking 94th overall, 74th in pass rush, 66th in coverage and 104th in the run game. BC loves to run, 60% of the time, so I think they can definitely rack up some yards on the ground. I alway talk about betting the stronger defense, and there’s no question that BC’s has been better to date, ranking 16th overall, 42nd in coverage and 4th against the run. They are also much better tacklers, ranking 18th compared to UVA’s 41st ranking. Across all categories, and their positional counterparts - BC averages a ranking differential of 20 ranks on defense, and 40 ranks on offense. In FEI, they are also slightly advantaged across all categories. We also have a nice advantage in defensive passing efficiency as BC ranks 19th where UVA ranks 88th - again the better defense at a pick 'em. Also love to see a team that's really good at securing the ball, BC who ranks 20th in TO margin per games against UVA who ranks #111th in TO margin per game., Last year BC won by 3 ay home but UVA covered, I think worst case they square out a win again.

SMU/Louisville Over 55.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I love this play - both teams are firing away on offense, with Kevin Jennings replacing Preston Stone for SMU - he has averaged a 63% completion % for 7.9 yards and 7 TDs and 1 INT. He can also get some yards on the ground averaging 4.38 ypc in times when they needed it. Tyler Shough for Louisville has been even better - completing 65% of his passes for 9.5 ypa and 11 TDs with 1 INT. He can also tuck it and run. Both offenses are averaging over 40+ points a game. Right now Louisville has some decent defensive numbers but it hasn’t been against tough completion. They still rank #112th in opponents completion % and sack %, and 82nd in yards per pass allowed. SMU’s defense has allowed a lot of big plays, ranking 93rd in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Louisville ranks 16th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards so expect them to have a few. They have never faced each other so I think both defenses will be scrambling to defend.

Iowa +18 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points for this defense. Their offense is new too and should pull out some tricks against Ohio State.

Georgia -22 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
UGA will smash Auburn. The numbers show big mismatches on both sides of the ball - not to mention UGA has had the hardest schedule to date according to Sagarin, Auburn ranks 77th in SOS so even with the numbers favoring UGA, opponent adjusted stats would be much higher.

USC -8 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
USC has strong advantages in most stat categories and has played a harder schedule - ranking 4th in Sagarain’s SOS ranking. The biggest mismatch on paper, on both sides of the ball, is one I love to see on 3rd conv %. This has been a problem for the Minnesota defense who ranks 97th in the league, and USC’s offense ranks 19th in 3rd down conv % as Lincoln Riley knows the right plays to call in those situations. Even better, on their defense, they have allowed 3rd downs to convert on only 26% of the time! - ranking 11th in the nation. A problem for this Minnesota offense who have only conv 38% of their 3rd downs - ranking #68th. The other big mismatches are in FEI - where across all categories - USC offense outranks Minnesota slightly on average across all categories with the biggest one being in ODA - which takes into account the relative strength of opponent - meaning Minnesota’s defense has not seen an offense anywhere near this calendar as they rank 94th in DDA, and USC ranks 19th in ODA. Meanwhile USC’s defense significantly outranks Minnesota’s offense in FEI in almost all categories and by an average of 42 ranks across all categories. USC has started off slow the last two weeks and Riley has had them come from behind scoring 28 unanswered points in 2nd half last week against Wiscy - I think they blow out MInnesota here today - who by the way only put up 17 points in their first game of the season where they lost to the horrible UNC.

Iowa State -11 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
The mismatches are huge in this one, on both sides of the ball. Rocco Becht should throw all over this Baylor defense that ranks 118th in coverage in PFF. Baylor defense ranks 78th overall, 51st in defensive passing efficiency, and 49th against the run. Iowa State’s defense ranks 40th overall, 79 th in coverage, 1st in defensive passing efficiency, and their biggest weakness is their rush defense - which ranks 101st but that's not a strength of this Baylor offense that ranks 108th in the run game and 100th in runblocking according to PFF. Iowa State’s one offensive weakness has been their pass blocking ranking 118th, but that's not a big strength for Baylor who rank 72nd in the pass rush. The FEI numbers are where the real mismatches are at - Iowa State’s defense outranks Baylor’s offense by an average of 63 ranks across all FEI categories.Iowa state defense is in the Top 5 of most of those categories- where Baylor is in bottom 25%. On offense they also have an average differential of 9 ranks. Iowa State’s defense is also in the Top 15 of plays over 4+ yards, plays over 7+ yards, and plays over 10+ yards. They are in the Top 15 in long drive, short drive and medium drive situations, a big problem for Baylor who ranks in the bottom 25% of those categories as well. Iowa State won by 12 last year and I think they improved where Baylor has regressed. Take Iowa State.

ODU +5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Their stats on paper are pretty equal - but the one difference is ODU has done it against a much better SOS. Not much else to say as I don’t watch either of these teams but like ODU to keep this one close.

Mich/Wash Under 41.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Both defenses should be hard to come by in this one with both defenses showing significant edges. The biggest being in pressure - as Michigan’s offense has struggled to protect their QB ranking 111th in PFF pass blocking and Washington’s defense ranks 46th in the pass rush so they should get some. Michigan’s defense is the best in the nation at the pass rush according to PFF so they will put some pressure of their own on Will Rogers. Both of these secondaries are top tier - with Washington ranking 18th in PFF and 3rd in defensive efficiency and Mich ranking 23rd in PFF. Both teams know how to tackle with Washington ranking 4th and Michigan ranking 20th. In FEI - both defenses outrank their offensive counter stat in FEI by an average of 26 ranks for Washington and an average of 6 ranks for Michigan. Both teams run slow offenses, with Michigan especially ranking 38th TOP % but 120th in plays per game. Washington too as they rank 48th in TOP% and 88th in plays per game. Washington will be at home and I expect a close hard fought game.

Miami -10 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
I can’t resist this Miami game. Seems like the whole world was on them last Friday night and they almost got upset by Gtech. Maybe that explains this low line? The numbers certainly show this should be a much bigger mismatch. Miami is ranked in the Top 5 in PFF in almost every offensive category - on defense they are in the Top 15 in every category and this should be a huge problem for a struggling Cal offense that ranks 88th overall, 37th in passing, 79th in receiving, 68th in the run game and 89th in run blocking. Miami’s defensive front, which now should return to healthy with Bain Jr. back, should DEMOLISH this Cal fron as they rank 7th overall, 12th coverage and 15th in the run game. But the biggest mismatch is going to be in passblocking where Cal ranks 120th and Miami’s defense ranks 6th in pass rushing (wow a triple digit ranking differential). Miami’s offense also ranks 1st in plays over 10+ yards and plays over 7+ yards. Cam Ward has faced this PAC 12 defense twice before (oh wait ACC now) and he averaged 350+ through the AIR and completed over 60%. Can’t remember the last time Miami played at 10pm and now going all the way to the west coast but this is too few points as worst case Miami wins by 14 but I think they blow them out easily. Welcome to the ACC - Cal.

No write ups for last two:
South Carolina +9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
ULL/Southern Miss over 56.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 6: (3-9) -6.47 units
Season YTD: (31-27) +0.78 units

Got smacked in the mouth last week - should not have waited until Friday to dig into all the games and then my power went out from 12:30pm - 8am so I didn't sleep and was in a miserable mind set when making my picks. Anyways, we’ve been doing this for long enough to just dust it off and keep moving forward. Had the numbers done since Tuesday and getting good at streamlining the process which last year, took my 3x the amount of time it takes me this year to do so more time to dig into the numbers - let's eat. More to come tomorrow morning, just the 4 for now.

Week 7:
Northwestern +11.5 (-115)
Georgia Tech/UNC Over 59.5 (-110)
Washington +3 (-110)
UCF/Cinn Over 58 (-106)

Northwestern +11.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Maryland has been really banged up with its two top WR listed as questionable and both left in the middle of their last game with Indiana. Aside from Indiana, Maryland hasn’t really played anyone difficult and lost to Mich State by 3. Northwestern has played tougher competition having faced Wash and Duke as well as Indiana. This Maryland defense isn’t that good, considering the competition and ranking - 69th overall, 100th in coverage and 56th in run defense and 103rd in tackling. NW has been throwing a lot more this year and they should be able to finally get some offensive production on such a weak secondary - who also gives up 8.4 ypp ranking 106th in the nation. NW rush defense has been stout - only allowing teams to run for 3.3 ypc ranking 23rd in the nation. NW defense also leads the nation in plays over 10+ yards allowed, so they don’t allow the big plays. NW is also the much more disciplined team as they rank #22nd in penalties per play where Maryland has struggled ranking #102nd. I think this will be less than a 2 TD game and NW’s offense, although has struggled on the season will finally start to show some life with the much weaker defense then it has faced so far.

Gerogia Tech/UNC Over 59.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
A bit of a no brainer square over as both these teams have really struggled on the defensive side of the ball - and last year they faced off 88 total points were scored. In last years matchup both teams' offenses dominated the line of scrimmage, with G.tech averaging 7.25 ypc and almost 350 yards - and UNC averaging 5.68 ypc and 267 yards on the ground. Both teams coverage units have been horrible this year too - both ranking 104th in PFF. In defensive passing efficiency, UNC ranks 102 and G.tech ranks 109th. In plays allowed over 10 yards+ yards - UNC defense ranks 102nd, in plays over 7+ yards 111th - G.tech ranks 39th in plays over 10+ yards. In long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards allowed, UNC defense ranks 126th with G Tech defense ranking 73rd. In long scrimmage plays over 30+ achieved by the offense - G.tech ranks 11th and UNC ranks 29th. According to FEI, both these offenses have mismatches in every FEI category and by an average of 25 ranks across all categories. I hate square plays but for some of these overs the last few years it doesn't seem like books can set a number high enough - lets see some TD’s!

Washington +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I wanted to take Washington over Michigan last week but ended up switching to the under which got smashed. This week the numbers show Washington should be favored again much like last week. Despite most of this Iowa defense coming back - they haven't performed at the same level as last year - most notably in run defense - they rank 65th overall. Washington should establish its run game and have some production with Will Rogers at QB - he’s a dynamic playmaker averaging 9.1 yards per pass and completing 73.6% of his throws on the season - even having played tough BIG 10 defenses like Rutgers, Mich and NW. There’s just too big of a talent gap between him and Iowa’s QB - Cade McNamara who has still struggled despite the new OC at Iowa - he averages 5.6 yards per attempt with only 3 TDs and 3 INT’s on the season. His WR’s have given him no help as they rank 98th in PFF were Washington’s WR’s rank 5th. In FEI - Washington’s defense outranks Iowa’s offense in almost every category by a LARGE margin - an average of 56 ranks where Washington’s defense is nearly evenly matched with Iowa’s offense in FEI. Washington probably win’s this game outright but am very comfortable with 3 points.

UCF/Cinn Over 58 (-106)
Last week Florida dominated the line of scrimmage against UCF - so they were held to 13 points but I can’t imagine that being the case in this game against Cincinnati as they have really struggled against the run ranking 95th in the nation - allowing 4.8 ypc - this is where UCF thrives ranking 37th in the nation averaging 4.9 ypc so they should be able to get 5 yards per carry and they run the ball 65% of the time with a lot of designed runs for KJ. Both teams should move the ball up and down the field with ease - according to FEI both offenses outrank their defensive counter-stat by an average of over 50+ ranks! In plays over 4+ yards, 7+ yards and 10+ yard - Cincinnati defense ranks in the bottom 20% of the league and UCF ranks in the top 20%. UCF’s defense has also struggled in this area where Cincinnati offense has been above average. In 3rd down conv % both defenses are in the bottom of the league with UCF ranking 126th and Cin ranking 83rd. On offense they both do well on 3rd down with Cincinnati ranking #23rd and UCF ranking 15th. This matchup LIGHTS UP GREEN in my spreadsheets so pound the over!

Oregon -23 (-110) L
Syracuse +6 (-103) W
Boston College +2 (-110) L
SMU/Louisville Over 55.5 (-105) W
Iowa +18 (-102) L
Georgia -22 (-104) L
USC -8 (-104) L
South Carolina +9.5 (-105) L
Iowa State -11 (-104) W
ODU +5 (-105) L
Mich/Wash Under 41.5 (-115) L
ULL/Southern Miss over 56.5 (-110) L
Miami -10 (-104) L
 
BOL this weekend, Dan. Great call on the Mildcats last night - easy no sweat winner!

Like the over in Chapel Hill, actually logging on to add GT TT over myself.
 
Thanks Biff - I wish I could finally grow some nards and take some of the dogs on ML! So many winning outright this year but I can't find myself to pull the trigger before the game.....Lots of -3 pt favs this week - I'm taking the ML to be safe as I think a few of them may be 1-3 pt wins!
Good luck all

Dapper Dan Picks:
Seasong YTD: (32-27) +1.78 units

Week 7 Adds:
Wisconsin/Rutgers over 43.5 (-110)
Miami (OH) -2 (-111)
Cal/Pitt Under 58.5 (-111)
BYU ML (-137)
Penn State ML (-165)
Ohio State ML (-150)
Iowa State -2.5 (-125)
Tennessee -14 (-118)

Wisconsin/Rutgers over 43.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Looking at how these two programs have been over the last few years, you wouldn’t expect an over, but the more I dug into the game, the more it seemed like th over was the best bet for this one. Both defenses have really struggled against the run, with Rutgers ranking #110th allowing 5.2 ypc and Wisconsin ranking 74th, allowing 4.4 ypc. PFF agrees and shows a huge mismatch in the run game as Rutgers ground game is ranked 42nd and 3rd in run blocking - they should get a ton of yards on the ground against Wisconsin this ranked 95th. This is a huge game for both teams in the Big 10, two teams who are familiar with each other and scored 40 combined in last years matchup, but I think teams got a step up in offense and step down in defense according to the numbers. Rutgers has a new OC to throw in some wrinkles but against a familiar foe for the Badgers as Kirk and his QB came from Minny and have faced this Wisconsin defense twice in the last two years. Both teams are very disciplined - ranking in the top 15 of penalties per play (I think that’s good for the offense). Despite typically conservative play calling, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some trick plays, 4th down attempts, and/or a defensive TD to help push this game over the total. This justs smells like an over to me in a game that would normally be a square under or maybe I’m wearing too many tinfoil hats.

Miami (OH) -2 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
On paper these teams are almost matched stats wise - but the one glaringly obvious HUGE difference is the strength of schedule. Despite being in the MAC - Miami OH has played the 34th hardest schedule according to Sagarin - having played ND, Cinn, NW, and Toledo - four teams with a 15-5 record. EMU on the other hand has had the 163rd hardest schedule according to Sagarin and still has a defense that almost grades out as poorly as Miami Oh ranking 117th overall, 133rd in coverage, and 74th in tackling. Miami OH also returns much of the same great defense from last year - so expect the team to turn around as the number are piss poor to date, but against some competition.

Cal/Pitt Under 58.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
I love these two defensive minded coaches facing off in what you would think would be a high scoring with the total so high, but the numbers show this may be a good under. In PFF both defenses have edges every category - over the offensive counterpart by an average differntial of 45 ranks for Pitt’s defense and an average of 20 ranks for Cal’s defense. Both offenses have struggled in pass protection, ranking 112th and 77th and both defenses can bring a good pass blitz ranking 44th and 53rd. In sack %, Cal ranks 131st where Pitt’s defense ranks 41st and Pitt’s offense ranks 80th and Cal’s defense ranks 26th. In FEI, both defenses also slightly outweigh their offensive FEI category of the other team. California’s defense is especailly at stopping the big plays, averaging 13 in plays over 10+ yards allowed, 9th in plays over 7+ yards. In plays over 30+ yards allowed, Cal’s defense ranks 8th in the nation so this Pitt defense that’s used to big plays, ranking 5th in plays over 30+ yards will need to find some things underneath. Cal’s ranked 74th on offense in plays over 30+ yards so their big plays will be limited. In yards per play allowed, both these defenses are in the top 35 of the league, and have been especially good against the run, with Pitt ranking #24th with 3.3 ypc allowed and Cal ranking 28th with 3.4 ypc allowed. This is the first time these two teams will be facing off in program history so I think this gives an edge to each defense.

BYU ML (-137) Risking 1.37 units to win 1 units
Is the only team that has beat two teams that are currently in the Top 25 - they are playing great on both sides of the ball - and special teams - meanwhile Arizona has been scrambling all season, having to replace Jedd Fisch as playcaller, they brought in Dino Babers from Syracuse, who was promptly replaced after their bye week and their struggling performance - they are still looking to find their identity and throw it more on 1st downs then most teams in the country and situational BYU is one of the best coverage teams on 1st down. They are the much better defense ranking 31st overall, 19th in the run game, and 21st in tackling. A big mismatch on paper for a defense that ranks 77th overall, 95 in the run game, and 111th in tackling. BYU’s defense ranks 5th in plays over 4+ yards allowed, 3rd in plays over 7+ yards, and 26th in plays over 10+ yards, and 18th in plays over 30+ yards allowed. Arizona defense ranks 76th in plays over 4+ yards, 78th in plays over 7+ yards, 54th in plays over 10+ yards and 54th in plays over 30+ yards. Fifita has struggled with only 7 TDs and 6 INTs and currently ranks 106th in offense and BYU’s Retzlaff ranks 60th and has been the biggest surprise this season as he’s the type of QB who can beat you his legs - an area where Arizona struggles to defend. Arizona loves to throw, which is the strength of this defense, that ranks 5th in completion %, 6th in opponents yards per passs. They also protect the ball much better ranking 19th in TO margin where Arizona ranks 84th. They are also the much more disciplined team ranking #29th in penalties per play where Arizona ranks 82nd. BYU should win this one despite all the expectations before the season, they have been continually undervalued as their Futures season win total was 4.5 - which they already beat and are currently undefeated.

Penn State ML (-165) Risking 1.65 units to win 1 units
Penn State should win by a touchdown or two but I’m going conservative and taking the ML as even if the worst breaks happen I still think Penn State has all the tools to win. USC’s biggest weakness is their run defense which ranks 80th in PFF, and 102nd in YPC allowed - giving up 5 ypc. This is the bread and butter of Andy Kotelicki and Penn State’s offense who runs 63% of the time and averages 5.4 ypc- ranking 19th in the nation and 6th according ot PFF. They also complete a ton of passes, 71% of them ranking 7th in the nation which is bad news for USC who has allowed their own opponents to complete 67% of their passes, ranking 114th in the nation. Meanwhile, Penn State’s defense is a Top 10 defense in most categories, including yards per play only allowing 3.8, and yards per carry allowed - only allowing 2.5 to their opponents - good for 6th in the nation. Penn State is also much smarter with the ball as they average 1.2 less giveaways per game ranking 12th in the nation. PFF also shows a huge mismatch at the line of scrimmage as USC ranks 128th in pass blocking where Penn State ranks 5th. In plays over 10+ yards, Penn State also shows big mismatches on both sides of the ball as their defense ranks 7th in plays over 10+ yards, an area where USC offense struggles ranking 74th. For Penn State’s offense the mismatch is even bigger as they rank 8th in plays over 10+ yards, and USC’s defense ranks 96th in plays over 10+ yards allowed. According to the number this has blowout written all over it but considering USC has had a bit of a harder schedule, maybe it’s closer than I expect but I don’t see Penn State losing.

Ohio State ML (-150) Risking 1.5 units to win 1 units
Ohio State looked like the real deal dominating Iowa last week- granted they havent had much other competition but they still are in the Top 20 of almost every PFF category on both sides of the ball. They have been running all over people ranking 5th in the run game and 13th in run blocking, an area of concern for this Oregon defense that ranks 58th in rush defense. Oregon’s offense hasn’t been nearly as potent according to PFF ranking 40th overall as their run game has struggled ranking 67th in rushing and 55th in run blocking - a big mismatch on paper for the #3 ranking rush defense. Ohio State should own the line of scrimmage, and welcome this PAC 12 defense to the BIG 10 by shutting down their offense the way BIG 10 teams play - with defense.

Iowa State -2.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Getting some trappy vibes but lets just go with the much better defense here - seems like I can’t find any capper on either side so - here’s why you should take Iowa State - the much better defense - overall on defense Iowa State ranks 32nd where West Virginia ranks 105th and a horribly 127th in coverage. Rocco Becht and his 15th ranked receivers should be open all night long. In comparison, Iowa State’s coverage team ranks 10th in the nation. In FEI we also see big mismatches as Iowa State’s offense outranks WVU’s defense by an average of 40 ranks across all categories - on defense they also have an edge across all categories by an average of 10 ranks. The biggest mismatch on paper though is in plays over 7+ and 10+ yards on both sides of the ball for Iowa State they have been stellar ranking 13th in plays over 10+ yards, 18th in plays over 7+ yards, and WVU defense ranks 98th in plays over 7+ yards and 91st in plays over 10+ yards - they also rank 107th in plays allowed over 30+ yards. Iowa State’s defense has been the complete opposite, ranking 9th in plays over 10+ yards allowed, ranking 22nd in plays over 7+ yards allowed, and 12th in plays over 30+ yards allowed. Iowa State goes on the road and pulls off the Win once again.

Tennessee -14 (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units
No write-up - Tennessee dominates this pathetic UF defense.
 
My only pushback on isu d would be they have not faced an offense anywhere close to what wvu can do on the ground or thru the air. Greene is a handful, it used to be mostly his legs you had to worry about but he has become a much better passer. I don’t think it debatable wvu has played the much tougher schedule and their 2 losses came against a couple very good and undefeated teams. This will be a huge test for isu d cause wvu is far and away the best offense isu has faced. I do agree isu offense should have success, the way to attack wvu d is thru the air and isu might have the best wr combo in the big 12, Bect should have a big game. Not against you, im much more interested in the over 53 as I think this a good td short. It be super impressive if isu can go to Morgantown at night and come away with a win, to do so I think they are gonna need to hang 30.
 
DapperDan said:
Thanks Biff - I wish I could finally grow some nards and take some of the dogs on ML! So many winning outright this year but I can't find myself to pull the trigger before the game.....Lots of -3 pt favs this week - I'm taking the ML to be safe as I think a few of them may be 1-3 pt wins!
Good luck all

Dapper Dan Picks:
Seasong YTD: (32-27) +1.78 units

Week 7 Adds:
Wisconsin/Rutgers over 43.5 (-110)
Miami (OH) -2 (-111)
Cal/Pitt Under 58.5 (-111)
BYU ML (-137)
Penn State ML (-165)
Ohio State ML (-150)
Iowa State -2.5 (-125)
Tennessee -14 (-118)

Wisconsin/Rutgers over 43.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Looking at how these two programs have been over the last few years, you wouldn’t expect an over, but the more I dug into the game, the more it seemed like th over was the best bet for this one. Both defenses have really struggled against the run, with Rutgers ranking #110th allowing 5.2 ypc and Wisconsin ranking 74th, allowing 4.4 ypc. PFF agrees and shows a huge mismatch in the run game as Rutgers ground game is ranked 42nd and 3rd in run blocking - they should get a ton of yards on the ground against Wisconsin this ranked 95th. This is a huge game for both teams in the Big 10, two teams who are familiar with each other and scored 40 combined in last years matchup, but I think teams got a step up in offense and step down in defense according to the numbers. Rutgers has a new OC to throw in some wrinkles but against a familiar foe for the Badgers as Kirk and his QB came from Minny and have faced this Wisconsin defense twice in the last two years. Both teams are very disciplined - ranking in the top 15 of penalties per play (I think that’s good for the offense). Despite typically conservative play calling, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some trick plays, 4th down attempts, and/or a defensive TD to help push this game over the total. This justs smells like an over to me in a game that would normally be a square under or maybe I’m wearing too many tinfoil hats.

Miami (OH) -2 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
On paper these teams are almost matched stats wise - but the one glaringly obvious HUGE difference is the strength of schedule. Despite being in the MAC - Miami OH has played the 34th hardest schedule according to Sagarin - having played ND, Cinn, NW, and Toledo - four teams with a 15-5 record. EMU on the other hand has had the 163rd hardest schedule according to Sagarin and still has a defense that almost grades out as poorly as Miami Oh ranking 117th overall, 133rd in coverage, and 74th in tackling. Miami OH also returns much of the same great defense from last year - so expect the team to turn around as the number are piss poor to date, but against some competition.

Cal/Pitt Under 58.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
I love these two defensive minded coaches facing off in what you would think would be a high scoring with the total so high, but the numbers show this may be a good under. In PFF both defenses have edges every category - over the offensive counterpart by an average differntial of 45 ranks for Pitt’s defense and an average of 20 ranks for Cal’s defense. Both offenses have struggled in pass protection, ranking 112th and 77th and both defenses can bring a good pass blitz ranking 44th and 53rd. In sack %, Cal ranks 131st where Pitt’s defense ranks 41st and Pitt’s offense ranks 80th and Cal’s defense ranks 26th. In FEI, both defenses also slightly outweigh their offensive FEI category of the other team. California’s defense is especailly at stopping the big plays, averaging 13 in plays over 10+ yards allowed, 9th in plays over 7+ yards. In plays over 30+ yards allowed, Cal’s defense ranks 8th in the nation so this Pitt defense that’s used to big plays, ranking 5th in plays over 30+ yards will need to find some things underneath. Cal’s ranked 74th on offense in plays over 30+ yards so their big plays will be limited. In yards per play allowed, both these defenses are in the top 35 of the league, and have been especially good against the run, with Pitt ranking #24th with 3.3 ypc allowed and Cal ranking 28th with 3.4 ypc allowed. This is the first time these two teams will be facing off in program history so I think this gives an edge to each defense.

BYU ML (-137) Risking 1.37 units to win 1 units
Is the only team that has beat two teams that are currently in the Top 25 - they are playing great on both sides of the ball - and special teams - meanwhile Arizona has been scrambling all season, having to replace Jedd Fisch as playcaller, they brought in Dino Babers from Syracuse, who was promptly replaced after their bye week and their struggling performance - they are still looking to find their identity and throw it more on 1st downs then most teams in the country and situational BYU is one of the best coverage teams on 1st down. They are the much better defense ranking 31st overall, 19th in the run game, and 21st in tackling. A big mismatch on paper for a defense that ranks 77th overall, 95 in the run game, and 111th in tackling. BYU’s defense ranks 5th in plays over 4+ yards allowed, 3rd in plays over 7+ yards, and 26th in plays over 10+ yards, and 18th in plays over 30+ yards allowed. Arizona defense ranks 76th in plays over 4+ yards, 78th in plays over 7+ yards, 54th in plays over 10+ yards and 54th in plays over 30+ yards. Fifita has struggled with only 7 TDs and 6 INTs and currently ranks 106th in offense and BYU’s Retzlaff ranks 60th and has been the biggest surprise this season as he’s the type of QB who can beat you his legs - an area where Arizona struggles to defend. Arizona loves to throw, which is the strength of this defense, that ranks 5th in completion %, 6th in opponents yards per passs. They also protect the ball much better ranking 19th in TO margin where Arizona ranks 84th. They are also the much more disciplined team ranking #29th in penalties per play where Arizona ranks 82nd. BYU should win this one despite all the expectations before the season, they have been continually undervalued as their Futures season win total was 4.5 - which they already beat and are currently undefeated.

Penn State ML (-165) Risking 1.65 units to win 1 units
Penn State should win by a touchdown or two but I’m going conservative and taking the ML as even if the worst breaks happen I still think Penn State has all the tools to win. USC’s biggest weakness is their run defense which ranks 80th in PFF, and 102nd in YPC allowed - giving up 5 ypc. This is the bread and butter of Andy Kotelicki and Penn State’s offense who runs 63% of the time and averages 5.4 ypc- ranking 19th in the nation and 6th according ot PFF. They also complete a ton of passes, 71% of them ranking 7th in the nation which is bad news for USC who has allowed their own opponents to complete 67% of their passes, ranking 114th in the nation. Meanwhile, Penn State’s defense is a Top 10 defense in most categories, including yards per play only allowing 3.8, and yards per carry allowed - only allowing 2.5 to their opponents - good for 6th in the nation. Penn State is also much smarter with the ball as they average 1.2 less giveaways per game ranking 12th in the nation. PFF also shows a huge mismatch at the line of scrimmage as USC ranks 128th in pass blocking where Penn State ranks 5th. In plays over 10+ yards, Penn State also shows big mismatches on both sides of the ball as their defense ranks 7th in plays over 10+ yards, an area where USC offense struggles ranking 74th. For Penn State’s offense the mismatch is even bigger as they rank 8th in plays over 10+ yards, and USC’s defense ranks 96th in plays over 10+ yards allowed. According to the number this has blowout written all over it but considering USC has had a bit of a harder schedule, maybe it’s closer than I expect but I don’t see Penn State losing.

Ohio State ML (-150) Risking 1.5 units to win 1 units
Ohio State looked like the real deal dominating Iowa last week- granted they havent had much other competition but they still are in the Top 20 of almost every PFF category on both sides of the ball. They have been running all over people ranking 5th in the run game and 13th in run blocking, an area of concern for this Oregon defense that ranks 58th in rush defense. Oregon’s offense hasn’t been nearly as potent according to PFF ranking 40th overall as their run game has struggled ranking 67th in rushing and 55th in run blocking - a big mismatch on paper for the #3 ranking rush defense. Ohio State should own the line of scrimmage, and welcome this PAC 12 defense to the BIG 10 by shutting down their offense the way BIG 10 teams play - with defense.

Iowa State -2.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Getting some trappy vibes but lets just go with the much better defense here - seems like I can’t find any capper on either side so - here’s why you should take Iowa State - the much better defense - overall on defense Iowa State ranks 32nd where West Virginia ranks 105th and a horribly 127th in coverage. Rocco Becht and his 15th ranked receivers should be open all night long. In comparison, Iowa State’s coverage team ranks 10th in the nation. In FEI we also see big mismatches as Iowa State’s offense outranks WVU’s defense by an average of 40 ranks across all categories - on defense they also have an edge across all categories by an average of 10 ranks. The biggest mismatch on paper though is in plays over 7+ and 10+ yards on both sides of the ball for Iowa State they have been stellar ranking 13th in plays over 10+ yards, 18th in plays over 7+ yards, and WVU defense ranks 98th in plays over 7+ yards and 91st in plays over 10+ yards - they also rank 107th in plays allowed over 30+ yards. Iowa State’s defense has been the complete opposite, ranking 9th in plays over 10+ yards allowed, ranking 22nd in plays over 7+ yards allowed, and 12th in plays over 30+ yards allowed. Iowa State goes on the road and pulls off the Win once again.

Tennessee -14 (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units
No write-up - Tennessee dominates this pathetic UF defense.
Click to expand...

Man I started the year so high on vols, even played them vs Sooners regardless how square it felt but I thought that game left a lot of question marks bout the Vols qb. Lead me to play arky last week, didn’t expect they win outright but was pretty confident if they slowed down Vols run game they could stay in it. Im left w a bit the same concerns here, gators run d was pretty stout vs ucf last week. Just not sure I buy vols qb, slow down their run game and he has yet to prove he can put the team on his back throwing the ball. I’ve did a bit a 180 on vols, 2-3 weeks ago I thought they were one the best teams in the country but I’m not so sure anymore.
 
2daBank said:
Man I started the year so high on vols, even played them vs Sooners regardless how square it felt but I thought that game left a lot of question marks bout the Vols qb. Lead me to play arky last week, didn’t expect they win outright but was pretty confident if they slowed down Vols run game they could stay in it. Im left w a bit the same concerns here, gators run d was pretty stout vs ucf last week. Just not sure I buy vols qb, slow down their run game and he has yet to prove he can put the team on his back throwing the ball. I’ve did a bit a 180 on vols, 2-3 weeks ago I thought they were one the best teams in the country but I’m not so sure anymore.
Click to expand...
Ya - I was same high on Vols but after what we've seen from him against tougher D's - it doesnt look good - going with Bama this week - maybe 2 units
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 7 (8-4) +3.16 units
Season YTD: (39-31) +3.94 units

Nothing for tonight. Wanna take Duke but all kinds of shadiness there - laying off it all. Here’s what we got locked in so far for tmrw and more to come tomorrow.

Week 8:
Miami/Louisville Over 59 (-111)
Indiana -6 (-120)
Michigan ML (-169)
Toledo/NIU Under 44 (-110)
Alabama -3 (-110)

Miami/Louisville Over 59 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Both teams love to throw the ball - both offenses can move the ball very effectively and although Miami sports some better defensive numbers -it’’s been against weak competition. Cam Ward is the best rated QB according to PFF and he has the #3 ranked receivers - which should put up 350+ yards against a 94th coverage ranked Louisville defense - they also thank #112th in completion % allowed, 89th in yards per pass and 75th in defensive passing efficiency. Miami is also expected to get back one of it’s start offensive lineman - Jalen Rivers from injury. Both offenses have got a ton of big plays with Miami ranking 16th in plays over 30+ yards, 2nd in plays over 10+ yards, 4th in plays over 7+ yards, 6th in plays over 4+ yards - which has been a problem for Louisville’s defense that ranks 63rd in plays over 30+ yards allowed, 90th in plays over 10+ yards, 63rd in plays over 7+ yards. Miami’s defense hasn’t been so great in defending the big play either as they rank 104th in plays over 10+ yards and Louisville's offense ranks 19th in plays over 10+ yards and 7th in plays over 30+ yards. This is one of those overs you can’t put a number high enough like Gtech/UNC last week - last year they scored 69 points against each other but both offenses have improved.

Indiana -6 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
One of the biggest surprises this season is Indiana and the numbers show they are one of the most improved in PFF - ranking 2nd overall in offense, 21st in pass blocking, 3rd in passing, 1st in receiving, 17th in runblocking and 12th in rushing - very well rounded. Although Nebraska’s defense has been pretty good they rank 39th in coverage and 44th in defending the run. Nebraska’s offense has struggled ranking 73rd in passblocking, 71st in passing, 34th in receiving, 54th in rushing and 26th in run blocking - the IU defense that ranks 11th overall, should get plenty of pressure, ranking 7th in the pass rush, 33rd in coverage and 12th against the run. In PFF, we also have a big mismatch in special teams as IU ranks 25th where Nebraska ranks 134th. Nebraska has only one loss against some pretty soft competition, and it’s revenge at home for IU as last time they played Nebraska they got beat by 14 two years ago but those were two very different teams.

Michigan ML (-169) Risking 1.69 units to win 1 units
Michigan should dominate this one but taking the ML. They have been dominant in the run game which is a real problem for this Illinois defense that allows 4.9 ypc and ranks 105th - in PFF their run defense ranks 126th. Michigan ranks 16th in PFF and averages 5.1 ypc so they should run at will. Illinois offense has also struggled in pass protection ranking #131st in sack % and 93rd in PFF pass blocking. Michigan’s defense is ranked #1 in the pass rush according to PFF so Luke Altmyer should really have some issues and he’s not the best QB at dealing with pressure. In FEI, Michigan has an advantage in almost every category on both sides of the ball and by an average of 10 ranks across all categories. This should be a blowout but on the road it may be closer than I expect but I can’t see Michigan losing this one.

Toledo/NIU Under 44 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
We have a lot of factors that favor the under - especially in PFF where both offenses have struggled and defenses have thrived. Across all positional matchups, NIU’s defense outranks Toledo’s offense by an average of 50 ranks. Toledo’s defense outranks NIU’s offense by an average of 40 ranks. Both defenses are good at tackling - ranking 16th and 36th. Both Special teams units are strong, ranking 27th and 57th. Toledo has struggled in pass protection ranking 127th and NIU should get pressure ranking 48th in the pass rush according to PFF. In FEI, across all categories both offenses are outranked by an average of 51 ranks for NIU’s defense and 31 ranks for Toledo’s defense. Both offenses’s suck at the big play - with Toledo ranking 115th in plays over 10+ yards and 115th in plays over 7+ yards - an area where NIU ranks 27th in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 7th in plays over 7+ yards. Same lop-sided numbers for Toledo’s defense as they rank 12th in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 8th in plays over 7+ yards allowed where NIU ranks 109th in plays over 7+ yards and 66th in plays over 10+ yards. This is an easy under on paper.

Alabama -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
We got the veteran QB against the rookie with the better team around him.. They have the slightly better team according to the numbers - but having played a much harder schedule to date with Georgia, South Carolina and Wisconsin - Sagarin's SOS has Alabama at 14th strongest vs the Vols 52nd ranked. In PFF, on defense they are nearly equally ranked but Tennessee just lost their captain and top LBs Keenan Pili. On offense, Alabama has the much more cohesive unit as they are ranked 21st overall, 24th in pass blocking, 15th in passing, 14th in receiving, 67th in running and 73rd in runblocking. Tennessee’s offense, despite padding stats on some really piss poor out of conference teams ranks 67th overall, 55th in pass rushing, 60th in passing, 33rd in receiving, 57th in rushing and 108th in runblocking. New freshman QB, Nico Iamaleava, has one of the worst passer ratings under pressure and has been sacked on 8.21% of dropbacks ranking 104th and Alabama ranks 23rd in the pass rush. The differential between Alabama’s completion % on offense (ranked 3rd and 3rd in ypp) is big considering Tennessee's defense is ranked 76th in completion % and 36th in ypp allowed. Tennessee’s offense doesn’t have that same mismatch ranking 56th in completion % and 27th in ypp - where Alabama's defense ranks 37th in compl% and 16th in ypp allowed. I may add a unit to Alabama ML in the morning.

Week 7:
Northwestern +11.5 (-115) W
GTech/UNC Over 59.5 (-110) W
Washington +3 (-110) L
UCF/Cinn Over 58 (-106) L
Wisconsin/Rutgers over 43.5 (-110) W
Miami (OH) -2 (-111) W
Cal/Pitt Under 58.5 (-111) W
BYU ML (-137) W
Penn State ML (-165) W
Ohio State ML (-150) L
Iowa State -2.5 (-125) W
Tennessee -14 (-118) L
 
DapperDan said:
Ya - I was same high on Vols but after what we've seen from him against tougher D's - it doesnt look good - going with Bama this week - maybe 2 units
Click to expand...

Yea I love bama this week, pretty confident they can stop the run game and vols offense just doesn’t have a trigger man. Only concern is vols getting pressure on Milroe, I’m sure he have several ugly ass -20 yard plays but whenever they don’t get to him bama wr’s will be banging their heads on the goal post: no chance do I see vols being to keep up with bama inevitable big plays.
 
I just think this a massive step up for Hoosiers while neb been playing big games. Seems like everyone I respect likes Indy so maybe I’m way off liking the points with corn.
 
Let's get em today fellas! Ya Bama for 1.5x - was leaning UGA too with the points but decided to lay off that one. Who has Texas played? hmmmmmm

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 7 (8-4) +3.16 units
Season YTD: (39-31) +3.94 units

Week 8 Adds:
South Carolina +1.5 (-111) 1.5x
UCLA/Rutgers Under 41 (-108)
Alabama ML (-146) .5x
LSU ML (-122)
Iowa ML (-212)
WVU/Kansas State over 55 (-108)

South Carolina +1.5 (-111) Risking 1.66 units to win 1.5 units
No write-up sorry - also lean under - 1.5 units

Alabama ML (-146) Risking .73 units to win .5 units
Adding half unit to bet - already have unit on the spread - writeup yesterday

UCLA/Rutgers under 41 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Both teams have horrible QB’s and Recievers according to PFF - with UCLA’s ranking 119th and 109, and Rutgers ranking 74th and 107th. Across of most of PFF, UCLA is in the bottom 5% of almost every category, but their defense has been pretty stout considering the have played, Minnesota, Penn State, Oregon, LSU, and Indiana - arguable the hardest schedule to date in the nation and ranked #1 in Sagarin SOS. Their defense will finally feel some relief against this Rutgers defense. Despite such a hard schedule they have only allowed opponents to run for 3.2 ypc and ranking #19th in the nation. Rutgers loves to run the ball so they will be facing the strength and UCLA loves to throw the ball which is the strength of the Rutgers defense that ranks 30th in coverage, and 18th in defensive passing efficiency. Neither offense is capable of the big play, with UCLA ranking 125th in plays over 30+ yards, 132nd in plays over 10+ yards, 116th in plays over 7+ yards. Rutgers, almost as bad, probably worse if you consider their competition - ranking 83rd in plays over 10+ yards and 69th in plays over 30+ yards. UCLA’s defense despite the tough schedule is ranked 18th in giving up plays over 10+ yards. Both teams run extremely slow offenses. This game stays well under the total.

LSU ML (-122) Risking 1.22 units to win 1 units
LSU’s strength plays into the weaknesses of this Arkansas defense. They love to throw the ball and their offense ranks 24th in passing and 25th in receiving - where Arkansas’s defense struggles ranking 108th in coverage, according to PFF - they also struggle to tackle ranking 84th. On the defensive side, LSU’s strength has been their pass rush, ranking 11th in PFF, which is a problem for Arkansas that ranks 92nd in pass blocking. They prefer to run the ball but LSU has been better at stopping the run ranking 53rd in PFF and allowing 3.8 yards per rush - ranking 39th. In FEI we have a nice advantage across all categories - 20 ranks on offense on defense they are neaerly equally matched with a differential average of -1. Arkansas has struggled in short drive situations ranking #112th. LSU ofense has done well in Long Drive and Medium drive situations ranking 31st and 26th. Their offense should get plenty of deep balls down the field as they rank 42nd in plays over 10+ yards and Arkansas’s defense ranks 82nd in 10+ plays allowed. LSU wins this one but it may be close as Arkansas plays this team tough but they don’t have the same weapons LSU has.

Iowa ML (-212) Risking 2.12 units to win 1 units
There’s no reason Iowa shouldn’t win by double digits but they are Iowa so screw it lets just take the ML. All the numbers show insanely big mismatches for Iowa - PFF, FEI, and PPD - also with a harder schedule. Don’t let us down Iowa. Maybe even do a little Iowa/Iowa State ML parlay if you’re hungry too.

WVU/Kansas State over 55 (-108)
Both defensive units are pretty awful - ranking in the bottom 20% of almost lal PFF categories - with the biggest struggles coming in the secondary where WVU ranks 129th in coverage PFF and 123rd in defensive passing efficiency. Kansas State ranks 96th in coverage and 104th in defensive passing efficiency. FEI shows both offenses have strong advantages too with an average of 44 ranks across all categories for Kansas State and an average of 32 ranks across all categories for WVU. The big plays should happen often as Kansas State ranks 26th in plays over 10+ yards and 19th in plays over 30+ yards. WVU’s defense ranks 85th in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 114th in plays over 30+ yards allowed. For WVU offense, they will probably drive up the field more methodically, as they rank 18th in plays over 4+ yards, a place where KState’s defense is willing to give up ranking 123rd in plays over 4+ yards allowed. A nice night time BIG 12 shootout where last time they faced off two years ago they scored 79 points combined.
 
Alll my freaking leans last week winners and I laid off - bookies Im 👀 you

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 8: 6-5 (-0.72 units)
Season YTD: (45-36) +3.22 units

Two over bangers and a straight up winner for the weekend so far and will be back more Saturday morning with write ups for those - no write ups for these, just know the spreadsheets are conditionally formatted to bleed GREEN for overs and these two look greener then Fern Gully.

Week 9:
Syracuse/Pitt Over 62 (-106)
Georgia Southern ML (-108)
Boise State/UNLV over 64 (-104)


Week 8:
Miami/Louisville Over 59 (-111) W
Indiana -6 (-120) W
Michigan ML (-169) L
Toledo/NIU Under 44 (-110) W
Alabama -3 (-110) L
South Carolina +1.5 (-111) 1.5x W
UCLA/Rutgers Under 41 (-108) L
Alabama ML (-146) .5x L
LSU ML (-122) W
Iowa ML (-212) L
WVU/Kansas State over 55 (-108) W
 
im scared of the number on cuse/pitt. I certainly understand the things to like bout it. The things that worry me and make me lean pitt, I don’t think cuse eill be able to run the ball, that fine for the over cause McCord will put up numbers, my concern tho McCord has a real propensity to throw bad bad passes especially in the red zone, once the field condensed and Pitt doesn’t have to worry bout being beaten over the top I think they might make a few cuse red zone trips 0s, especially if pena can’t go, not sure just see he on I just report. I have no doubt there gonna be points in this game but im kinda around this being 31-24, pitt gets lead and think they can suck some the air out the ball w Reid having success on the ground. Def not looking to play under, few over props I love, just worried that number might end up a td high, of course they could both score 35+ also!
 
Nice call with Pitt Banker ..... 0-3 start SMDH

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 9 Adds:
Washington +6.5 (-106)
Gtech/Vtech over 53 (-110)
Notre Dame -13 (-108)
Ark/Miss State under 57 (-109)
Minnesota ML (-189)
TCU -6 (-110)
Texas/Vanderbilt Over 50.5 (-112)
Houston/Utah under 37 (-106)
Auburn +2.5 (+100) 1.5x
Penn State -6.5 (-103)
LSU +1.5 (-108)

Washington +6.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
I’ll take this many points against a new backup QB all day - everyone has been hit by surprise by this Indiana team including me but at the end of the day their SOS is still weak - ranked 100th in Sagarin and the blowout of Nebraska last week shouldn’t happen again this week since Kurtis Rourke is most likely out and Nebraska’s offense ranks 80th in passing and 41st in receiving in PFF - a big difference from this Washington offense that ranks 24th in passing and 6th in receiving. Indiana’s backup QB had seen some action last season where he lost 3 games and only won two, against Indiana State and Akron - he averaged 60% for almost 1000 yards and only 2 TDs with 5 INTs. Will Rogers is a much better veteran and despite many of the numbers favoring Indiana - the SOS number can not be denied as Washington’s ranked 56th, with a differential of 44. At first I was leaning Indiana pretty heavily but the absences of Rourke will most likely be felt.

Gtech/Vtech over 53 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Love this if King comes back but even if he doesn’t I think we can still manage to go over the total. Both secondaries are in the bottom 15% of the league, with Vtech ranking 109th in PFF and Gtech ranking 105th. Vtech’s run defense PFF is just as bad ranking 105th so this Gtech offense that ranks 33rd overall, 37th in passing, 28th in receiving, 62nd in rushing and 53rd in run blocking. G-tech’s defense will have it’s own problems as in FEI they are outranked in every category by an average of 41 ranks. Both defenses struggle with giving plays over 10+ yards wirth Gtech ranking 93rd it could be a big problem against Vtech that ranks 13 in plays over 10+ yards. Both teams are excellent in short drive situations and strike quickly and in the the Top 20 - both defenses struggle in that area with Gtech ranking 68th and Vtech ranking 92nd. Vtech loves to blitz and bring pressure so lets hope King is in and this game will surely go over the total.

Notre Dame -13 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Another big SOS mismatch as Navy has played no competition to date ranking 144th in Sagarin SOS’s ranking, a differential of 93 in Sagarin as Notre Dame ranks 51st. The difference in this one is ND still has the better numbers in most statistical categories with the harder SOS. These two teams are very familiar with each other and play every year recently and I have watched a couple times and it seemed like ND won the game in the trenches on both sides of the ball (except two years ago when Navy scored 19 pts in 2nd half to make it close from ND’s 35-13 lead). I think they dominate this one in the trenches again and Navy will be caught off guard with this level of competition. In FEI - ND is in the Top 10 of almost every category as well as in plays allowed over 4+, 7+ and 10+ yards. Navy’s defense is ranked pretty poorly in those categories 84th in plays over 4+ yards, 33rd in plays over 7+ yards and 80th in plays over 10+ yards so I think ND will move the ball and maybe the superstar Riley Leonard will shine.

Ark/Miss State under 57 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Last year when these two teams faced off they scored a combined 10 points and it seems like both of these teams have definitely taken a step down so expect another low scoring affair. Miss State has some of the worst defensive numbers in the SEC but that’s having already played Georgia, Texas, Florida and Texas AM. They should see some life against this Arkansas offense that hasn’t been that great, especially in pass blocking, where they rank 91st in PFF, this is the one strength of this Miss State defense that ranks 4th in pass rushing so that should cause some havoc in the Arkansas back field. On defense, Arksansas actually outranks Miss. State’s offense in almost every category in FEI - the average differential is 26 ranks across all categories so the Miss. State offense that ranks 96th overall should have their own issues as well. Despite the bad numbers, both teams rank in the top 35 of run defenses, and show strong mismatches for the defensive lines, especially for Arkansas as Miss State ranks 116th in the run game and 108th in run blocking.

Minnesota ML (-189) Risking 1.89 units to win 1 units
We have big advantages on both sides of the ball. Both teams prefer to throw the ball, but that’s the strength of this Minn defense and the weakness of this Maryland defense. Minnesota ranks 18th in PFF in coverage and #6th in yards per pass allowed. Maryland on the other hand ranks 102nd in PFF and 106th in yards per pass allowed - a hella big difference. Minnesota has struggled protecting it’s QB ranking #105th in QB sack % but that’s not a strength of this Maryland team that ranks 111th in sack %. According to PFF Maryland has struggled more with pressure ranked 124th in pass blocking opposed to Minnesota’s 69th. FEI shows mismatches that favors both defenses, but Minnesota’s differential is nearly double Marylands with 40 ranks opposed to 20 ranks. Maryland couldn’t hit a big play if they wanted to, ranked 120th in plays over 10+ yards, and 76th in plays over 30+ yards. Minnesota’s defense has been lock down ranking 6th in plays over 10+ yards and 4th in plays over 30+ yards. Minnesota should grind Maryland down and pull away in the 2nd half.

TCU -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
The most obvious mismatch in this one is in the secondary as thats the one strength of this TCU defense that ranks 26th in PFF and 39th in defensive passin efficiency, a huge advantage compared to T. Techs that’s ranked 126th in PFF and 105th in defensive passing efficiency. Both teams love to throw so this will be a big factor. We also have the much better tackling team, ranking 32nd compared to T. Tech’s 117th. In plays over 10+ yards and 30+ yards allowed on defense, T. Tech is one of the worst, ranking 72nd and 127th. TCU’s defense doesn't give up the big play, ranking 48th in plays allowed over 10+ yards and 11th in plays allowed over 30+ yards. In Net points per play, TCU has a big differential of 49 ranks over T. Tech. For the last 5 years, TCU has largely dominated this BIG 12 opponent except last year they lost by 7 points, time to get some revenge at Home.

Texas/Vanderbilt Over 50.5 (-112) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Vanderbilt's new offensive success isn’t a total surprise considering their personal changes during the offseason and acquiring Paiva and new OC Tim Beck. Also Jerry Kill is their “cheif offensive consultant” - one of the brightest offensive minds that has been around for a long time, and turned a lot of programs around over the years and had been with Beck and Paiva too the last two years at NM State. They rank 4th in the nation in 3rd down conv %, a sign of a coach who knows what play to call when they need the yards. They also rank #11 in yards per pass and although Texas sports some great defensive numbers - I think last week Georgia showed that it’s been against weak competition. Texas isn’t the type to take their foot off the pedal either on offense and can expect them to come out firing after losing to UGA last week. They should have no problem against this Vandy defense that ranks 68th overall, 65 in coverage and 84th in tackling. FEI shows Texas outranking Vandy’s defense by an average of 72 ranks across all categories! Hit the over for a unit as it was tough to find some good overs today with so many high totals, this one seems low in the 50s - Texas should put up 35 themselves.

Auburn +2.5 (+100) Risking 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
I think Auburn’s the better team on both sides of the ball with their defense ranking 23rd overall in PFF the differential is 60 ranks over Kentucky’s 83rd ranked offense. On offense, Auburn’s ranked 57th overall and Kentucky is mid-tier as well ranking 55th. Kentucky loves to run the ball (mainly bc their QB sucks) which is the strength of this Auburn defense that ranks 18th in PFF and 34th in yards per rush. Kentucky’s defensive line is banged up and although they rank 22nd in yards per rush allowed, they rank 76th according to PFF against the run. Auburn’s weakness is their secondary who ranks 75th but Kentucky’s 97th ranked passer and 92nd ranked receivers should not be a threat. Kentucky has really struggled at generating big plays, ranking 98th, in plays over 10+ yards, a strength of this Auburn team that ranks 15th in plays over 10+ yards allowed. In plays over 4+ yards, plays over 7+ yards and plays over 10+ yards, Auburn’s differential is larger in every category vs Kentucky’s offense/defense. Kentucky’s defense has plenty of wholes in the secondary as well ranking #126th in yards per pass allowed, something Payton Throne can exploit, ranking #29th in ypp on offense. Auburn ranks 30th in plays over 10+ yards on offense where Kentucky’s defense ranks 91st. Auburns also the more disciplined team, ranking 62nd in penalties per play where UK ranks 100th. Auburn’s biggest problem has been the turnovers so as long as we can limit those I think Auburn wins on the road.

Houston/Utah under 37 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Easy under to talk about here. In PFF Houston has one of the worst offenses ranking in the bottom 10% of every position except pass blocking. Utah outranks them by an average of 50+ ranks across all positional matchups. Utah’s offense has been struggling as well - both defenses show big mismatches in FEI - with Houston outranking Utah by an average of 32 ranks across all categories and Utah outranking Houston by an average of 78 ranks across all categories on defense! None of the offenses can muster up big plays, ranking in the bottom 15% of plays over 4+ yards, plays over 7+ yards and plays over 10+ yards. The most obvious mismatch is in short field situations where both offenses have no idea what to do - ranking 98th and 107th, a place where both defenses shine, ranking 28th and 11th. In all long drive, medium drive, and short drive situations, the defense has the edge - this game bleeds red on the spreadsheets so we take the under despite the low number- I had a few others that were very red but this one seemed the best between Mich and Iowa’s low totals.

Last two no writeups:

Penn State -6.5 (-103)
LSU +1.5 (-108)
 
I like Pyron, even if King can't go for GA Tech. I like that over. GL today.
 
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