BiffTFinancial
Pretty much a regular
BOL today Dan!
Dapper Dan Picks - 24/25 Season Long Thread
- Thread starter DapperDan
- Start date
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Thanks fellas - had some ugly plays last week - didnt even look close for some, that keeps me up at night lol
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 9: 6-8 (-2.11 units units)
Season YTD: (51-44) +1.11 units
For whatever reason - a lot of lines I liked this week are (-111) and my units on the season is +1.11 so I think we’re due for some magical run that starts with 1. Too many picks last week, trying to scale it back and dial it in but ended up with 11 games this week - not enough time for writeups for all of them but I really dug into these numbers and came up with these:
Week 10:
Penn State +3.5 (-111)
Minnesota ML (-143)
Mississippi -7 (-115)
UCF/Arizona Under 56.5 (-110)
Northwestern +2.5 (-111)
Texas AM/South Car Under 44 (-106)
TCU/Baylor Over 62.5 (-110)
Wyoming/NM Over 60 (-110)
Oregon -14 (-111)
UCLA +7 (-104)
Washington +2.5 (-104)
Penn State +3.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
I’ll take 3 point at home in a sold out home game. These two teams are nearly identical on paper - more of an eye test then anything else. Penn State with the slightly stronger SOS. The one interesting stat mismatch is OSU’s defense ranks 101st in completion % allowed - Penn State ranks 3rd in completion %. Also Penn State’s offense under Kotelniki is really clicking,since Week 5 they have one of the highest PFF increases on offense (and defense actually!) with their QB play now ranking 5th overall and receivers ranking 6th- they will be ready to play. GET HYPED FOR THIS NOON KICK OFF - PENN STATE WILL BE TOO - they will finally upset their BIG 10 rival who has beat them the last 6 years in a row.
Minnesota ML (-143) Risking 1.43 units to win 1 units
Surprisingly, we've got strong advantages in almost every category in PFF on both sides of the ball. Minnesota’s offense outranks Illinois defense by an average of 27 ranks and their defense by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. They also have the better special teams according to PFF with an 11th ranked ST unit opposed to Illinois’s 45th ranked. In FEI- the differential is 20 ranks on both sides of the ball in favor of Minnesota. Minnesota loves to throw the ball, and Illinois defense hasn’t been great against the pass, ranking 79th in yards per pass allowed and 102nd in completion % allowed, they also rank 63rd in defensive passing efficiency. The net points per play, and net points per drive is where Minnesota shows the much bigger mismatch as they rank 32nd in net points per play where Illinois ranks 85th. Illinois gives up a ton of stuff underneath, ranking 124th in 4+ yard plays and 114th in 7+ yard plays - this is how Minnesota’s offense chip away at you, ranking 51st in plays over 4+ yards and 36th in plays over 7+ yards. Minnesota has been good to me this season and I like backing them here again to win on the road.
Mississippi -7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
This is an easy write-up, we have a beautiful triple digit differential in PFF for Ole Miss on offense as the rank 1st in passing, and 6th in receiving, against a Arkansas secondary that ranks 121st in coverage. Overall across all positions, on offense for Ole Miss the differential is 74. Their defense is also Top 10 in almost every category, including 1st in run defense and 1st in tackling (a big difference from Arkansas’s 86th tackling ranking). In FEI, more of the same mismatches and differential of 40 ranks for Ole Miss’s offense across all categories and 30 ranks on defense. They are a top 10 team in net points per play and drive when Arkansas is barely scratching the top 50. Last week Arkansas got to pad their stats on offense against an absolutely horrible Miss State team that basically rolled over and gave up 58 points (we had the under lol) I think this week they will get caught off guard against a team that beat them by 7 last year and I think they can do it again this year in this spot.
UCF/Arizona Under 56.5 (-1104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
I’m using a new metric to discover this total I like - PFF differential in the last 6 weeks for each team. So UCF and Arizona’s offenses are both in the bottom 5 of a sputtering PFF differential over the 6 weeks (since week 4) - Arizona’s offense has dropped to 77th in overall offense, 71st in passing, 80th in rec, 62 in run game and 94th in run blocking, UCF almost just as bad - ranking 61st overall. They are looking for a leader of this team as their QB passing is now ranked 110th overall on the season, their receivers havent stepped up either ranking 107th. Gus has handed over the offensive play calling duties to Tim Harris Jr on offense and a new play caller on defense that will most likely be a lot more conservative. They are switching between their 3rd string and 4th string QBs and is undecided who will start today. Arizona on offense is a shell of it’s former self, goes to show you how much play-calling means as you can have many of the same athletes but losing your play-caller can have dramatically different outcomes - last year Arizona finished 11th in overall offense in PFF and I don’t expect their 77th ranking to improve that much over the last month of the season.
Northwestern +2.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
These two defenses are heavily outmatched on paper - with Purdue being one of the leagues worst, literally, ranking in the bottom 5% of almost every category, PFF, Defensive FEI, Straight YPP allowed, 3rd down conv % - every imaginable stat, this Purdue defense is lurking around the bottom 5%. Northwestern on the other hand’s defense is stout despite their problems on offense, they are ranked in the top 50 of almost all categories in PFF including 40th in overall defense. In FEI, they outrank the Purdue offense by an average of 52 ranks across all categories while Purdue’s defense doesn't have nearly the same edge. NW is the much more disciplined team as Purdue ranks #110 in penalties per play, with a differential of 71 ranks, in TO margin the differential is nearly the same too in favor of NW. Purdue should completely roll over and get beat down this game as they have yet to beat a FBS team and NW is playing for a Bowl game. I’ll take a defensive and coaching mismatch for the the pick ‘em with two crap teams at noon.
Texas AM/South Car Under 44 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Last write-up - both these defenses are on fire and both offenses struggle with protection - with Texas Am ranking 31st in the pass rush according to PFF and South Carolina ranking 2nd! Both these QBs will be running for their lives with offensive lines who rank 61st for Texas Am and 106th for South Carolina. South Carolina Sellers has been especially bad under pressure, in PFF, he ranks 132nd when pressured. Texas AM’s weakness on defense has been their secondary, which ranks 83rd but that should be a problem in this game facing a S. Carolina offense that ranks 90th in passing and 75th in receiving. Despite being pressure heavy, neithe defense has given up many big plays, ranking 26th and 14th in plays over 10+ yards, nor is it something either of these offenses excel at ranking 62nd and 100th overall in plays of 10+ yards. Why the hell am I taking two unders? I have no idea but I just follow the numbers.
No Writeups for these:
TCU/Baylor Over 62.5 (-110)
Wyoming/NM Over 60 (-110)
Oregon -14 (-111)
UCLA +7 (-104)
Washington +2.5 (-104)
Week 9:
Syracuse/Pitt Over 62 (-106) L
Georgia Southern ML (-108) L
Boise State/UNLV over 64 (-104) L
Washington +6.5 (-106) L
Gtech/Vtech over 53 (-110) L
Notre Dame -13 (-108) W
Ark/Miss State under 57 (-109) L
Minnesota ML (-189) W
TCU -6 (-110) L
Texas/Vanderbilt Over 50.5 (-112) W
Houston/Utah under 37 (-106) W
Auburn +2.5 (+100) 1.5x W
Penn State -6.5 (-103) W
LSU +1.5 (-108) L
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 9: 6-8 (-2.11 units units)
Season YTD: (51-44) +1.11 units
For whatever reason - a lot of lines I liked this week are (-111) and my units on the season is +1.11 so I think we’re due for some magical run that starts with 1. Too many picks last week, trying to scale it back and dial it in but ended up with 11 games this week - not enough time for writeups for all of them but I really dug into these numbers and came up with these:
Week 10:
Penn State +3.5 (-111)
Minnesota ML (-143)
Mississippi -7 (-115)
UCF/Arizona Under 56.5 (-110)
Northwestern +2.5 (-111)
Texas AM/South Car Under 44 (-106)
TCU/Baylor Over 62.5 (-110)
Wyoming/NM Over 60 (-110)
Oregon -14 (-111)
UCLA +7 (-104)
Washington +2.5 (-104)
Penn State +3.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
I’ll take 3 point at home in a sold out home game. These two teams are nearly identical on paper - more of an eye test then anything else. Penn State with the slightly stronger SOS. The one interesting stat mismatch is OSU’s defense ranks 101st in completion % allowed - Penn State ranks 3rd in completion %. Also Penn State’s offense under Kotelniki is really clicking,since Week 5 they have one of the highest PFF increases on offense (and defense actually!) with their QB play now ranking 5th overall and receivers ranking 6th- they will be ready to play. GET HYPED FOR THIS NOON KICK OFF - PENN STATE WILL BE TOO - they will finally upset their BIG 10 rival who has beat them the last 6 years in a row.
Minnesota ML (-143) Risking 1.43 units to win 1 units
Surprisingly, we've got strong advantages in almost every category in PFF on both sides of the ball. Minnesota’s offense outranks Illinois defense by an average of 27 ranks and their defense by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. They also have the better special teams according to PFF with an 11th ranked ST unit opposed to Illinois’s 45th ranked. In FEI- the differential is 20 ranks on both sides of the ball in favor of Minnesota. Minnesota loves to throw the ball, and Illinois defense hasn’t been great against the pass, ranking 79th in yards per pass allowed and 102nd in completion % allowed, they also rank 63rd in defensive passing efficiency. The net points per play, and net points per drive is where Minnesota shows the much bigger mismatch as they rank 32nd in net points per play where Illinois ranks 85th. Illinois gives up a ton of stuff underneath, ranking 124th in 4+ yard plays and 114th in 7+ yard plays - this is how Minnesota’s offense chip away at you, ranking 51st in plays over 4+ yards and 36th in plays over 7+ yards. Minnesota has been good to me this season and I like backing them here again to win on the road.
Mississippi -7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
This is an easy write-up, we have a beautiful triple digit differential in PFF for Ole Miss on offense as the rank 1st in passing, and 6th in receiving, against a Arkansas secondary that ranks 121st in coverage. Overall across all positions, on offense for Ole Miss the differential is 74. Their defense is also Top 10 in almost every category, including 1st in run defense and 1st in tackling (a big difference from Arkansas’s 86th tackling ranking). In FEI, more of the same mismatches and differential of 40 ranks for Ole Miss’s offense across all categories and 30 ranks on defense. They are a top 10 team in net points per play and drive when Arkansas is barely scratching the top 50. Last week Arkansas got to pad their stats on offense against an absolutely horrible Miss State team that basically rolled over and gave up 58 points (we had the under lol) I think this week they will get caught off guard against a team that beat them by 7 last year and I think they can do it again this year in this spot.
UCF/Arizona Under 56.5 (-1104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
I’m using a new metric to discover this total I like - PFF differential in the last 6 weeks for each team. So UCF and Arizona’s offenses are both in the bottom 5 of a sputtering PFF differential over the 6 weeks (since week 4) - Arizona’s offense has dropped to 77th in overall offense, 71st in passing, 80th in rec, 62 in run game and 94th in run blocking, UCF almost just as bad - ranking 61st overall. They are looking for a leader of this team as their QB passing is now ranked 110th overall on the season, their receivers havent stepped up either ranking 107th. Gus has handed over the offensive play calling duties to Tim Harris Jr on offense and a new play caller on defense that will most likely be a lot more conservative. They are switching between their 3rd string and 4th string QBs and is undecided who will start today. Arizona on offense is a shell of it’s former self, goes to show you how much play-calling means as you can have many of the same athletes but losing your play-caller can have dramatically different outcomes - last year Arizona finished 11th in overall offense in PFF and I don’t expect their 77th ranking to improve that much over the last month of the season.
Northwestern +2.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
These two defenses are heavily outmatched on paper - with Purdue being one of the leagues worst, literally, ranking in the bottom 5% of almost every category, PFF, Defensive FEI, Straight YPP allowed, 3rd down conv % - every imaginable stat, this Purdue defense is lurking around the bottom 5%. Northwestern on the other hand’s defense is stout despite their problems on offense, they are ranked in the top 50 of almost all categories in PFF including 40th in overall defense. In FEI, they outrank the Purdue offense by an average of 52 ranks across all categories while Purdue’s defense doesn't have nearly the same edge. NW is the much more disciplined team as Purdue ranks #110 in penalties per play, with a differential of 71 ranks, in TO margin the differential is nearly the same too in favor of NW. Purdue should completely roll over and get beat down this game as they have yet to beat a FBS team and NW is playing for a Bowl game. I’ll take a defensive and coaching mismatch for the the pick ‘em with two crap teams at noon.
Texas AM/South Car Under 44 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Last write-up - both these defenses are on fire and both offenses struggle with protection - with Texas Am ranking 31st in the pass rush according to PFF and South Carolina ranking 2nd! Both these QBs will be running for their lives with offensive lines who rank 61st for Texas Am and 106th for South Carolina. South Carolina Sellers has been especially bad under pressure, in PFF, he ranks 132nd when pressured. Texas AM’s weakness on defense has been their secondary, which ranks 83rd but that should be a problem in this game facing a S. Carolina offense that ranks 90th in passing and 75th in receiving. Despite being pressure heavy, neithe defense has given up many big plays, ranking 26th and 14th in plays over 10+ yards, nor is it something either of these offenses excel at ranking 62nd and 100th overall in plays of 10+ yards. Why the hell am I taking two unders? I have no idea but I just follow the numbers.
No Writeups for these:
TCU/Baylor Over 62.5 (-110)
Wyoming/NM Over 60 (-110)
Oregon -14 (-111)
UCLA +7 (-104)
Washington +2.5 (-104)
Week 9:
Syracuse/Pitt Over 62 (-106) L
Georgia Southern ML (-108) L
Boise State/UNLV over 64 (-104) L
Washington +6.5 (-106) L
Gtech/Vtech over 53 (-110) L
Notre Dame -13 (-108) W
Ark/Miss State under 57 (-109) L
Minnesota ML (-189) W
TCU -6 (-110) L
Texas/Vanderbilt Over 50.5 (-112) W
Houston/Utah under 37 (-106) W
Auburn +2.5 (+100) 1.5x W
Penn State -6.5 (-103) W
LSU +1.5 (-108) L
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Thanks BAR! Ya a few were scary where we came out beating them down and the other team had a 4th qtr rally but it wasnt enough. Coulda told you my unders were going to bust 
UCF 56 themselves with new OC and QB! DAMMIT!
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 10: 8-3 (+4.74 units)
Season YTD: (59-47) (56%) +5.85 units
Two easy write-ups for tonight and one for tomorrow so far. More to come in the morning - only a few weeks left - time to eat!
Week 11:
California -7 (-115)
Iowa -6 (-110)
Iowa State -2.5 (-120)
California -7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I love betting on a team with a much stronger defense and by the numbers we have a significant edge on the defensive side. Wake’s defense ranks in the bottom 10% of almost every stat category - ranking #105th in ypp allowed, #108th in 3rd down conv % allowed, #121st in opp red zone scoring %, #132 in completion % allowed, #116th in defensive passing efficiency, and 89th overall in PFF. Cal’s defense on the other hand is much better by the numbers (and a slightly harder SOS), they rank #17th in opponent ypp allowed, #37 in opponents 3rd down conv %, #44th in red zone scoring %, 12th in opponents yards per rush, #33rd in completion% allowed, 12th in defensive passing efficiency, and 37th overall in PFF. Justin Wilcox knows how to coach defenses. Wake’s slow mesh BS has given them problems with sacks and they rank #105 in sack% allowed - a strength of this Cal defense that ranks 17th in sack %. Cal also protects the bal much better ranking #9th in TO margin per game where Wake ranks #65th. In FEI - Cal has an advantage on both sides of the ball and by an average of 30+ ranks across all categories. Wake’s offense has struggled to achieve big plays, ranking #119th in plays over 10+ yards, and Cal’s defense ranks #14 in allowing plays over 10+ yards - a triple digit differential and a big mismatch on paper. In net points per play and net point per drive, CAL has a huge advantage as they rank 38th in both categories where WF ranks #96th in 90th. Tough to take favorites in this day of college football but I’m confident in this one.
Iowa -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowa has seen a resurgence on offense finally since losing Cade McNamara and Brendan Sullivan taking over the offense. In the last two games he started, they scored 40+ points, and against two strong defenses in NW and Wisconsin. In these games, he didn’t even break 100 yards through the air, but he opens up their offense with his ability to run the ball - he’s averaged 5.15 ypc on the season and makes this Iowa offense that much more potent. They have been dominant in the run game with RB Kaleb Johnson averaging a stellar 7.52 ypc for 1279 yards already on the season. They should run at will against this UCLA run dfense that ranks 119th according to PFF. Across all PFF positional matchups - Iowa’s defense outranks UCLA’s offensive position by an average of 83 ranks! In FEI and NPP/NPD we see a lot more of the same mismatches. We also have HUGE MISMATCHES in TO Margin and penalties per play, as Iowa ranks #12 and #1st where UCLA ranks #110 and #131st! Iowa in another blowout.
Iowa State -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
No write-up - busy busy.
UCF 56 themselves with new OC and QB! DAMMIT!Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 10: 8-3 (+4.74 units)
Season YTD: (59-47) (56%) +5.85 units
Two easy write-ups for tonight and one for tomorrow so far. More to come in the morning - only a few weeks left - time to eat!
Week 11:
California -7 (-115)
Iowa -6 (-110)
Iowa State -2.5 (-120)
California -7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I love betting on a team with a much stronger defense and by the numbers we have a significant edge on the defensive side. Wake’s defense ranks in the bottom 10% of almost every stat category - ranking #105th in ypp allowed, #108th in 3rd down conv % allowed, #121st in opp red zone scoring %, #132 in completion % allowed, #116th in defensive passing efficiency, and 89th overall in PFF. Cal’s defense on the other hand is much better by the numbers (and a slightly harder SOS), they rank #17th in opponent ypp allowed, #37 in opponents 3rd down conv %, #44th in red zone scoring %, 12th in opponents yards per rush, #33rd in completion% allowed, 12th in defensive passing efficiency, and 37th overall in PFF. Justin Wilcox knows how to coach defenses. Wake’s slow mesh BS has given them problems with sacks and they rank #105 in sack% allowed - a strength of this Cal defense that ranks 17th in sack %. Cal also protects the bal much better ranking #9th in TO margin per game where Wake ranks #65th. In FEI - Cal has an advantage on both sides of the ball and by an average of 30+ ranks across all categories. Wake’s offense has struggled to achieve big plays, ranking #119th in plays over 10+ yards, and Cal’s defense ranks #14 in allowing plays over 10+ yards - a triple digit differential and a big mismatch on paper. In net points per play and net point per drive, CAL has a huge advantage as they rank 38th in both categories where WF ranks #96th in 90th. Tough to take favorites in this day of college football but I’m confident in this one.
Iowa -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowa has seen a resurgence on offense finally since losing Cade McNamara and Brendan Sullivan taking over the offense. In the last two games he started, they scored 40+ points, and against two strong defenses in NW and Wisconsin. In these games, he didn’t even break 100 yards through the air, but he opens up their offense with his ability to run the ball - he’s averaged 5.15 ypc on the season and makes this Iowa offense that much more potent. They have been dominant in the run game with RB Kaleb Johnson averaging a stellar 7.52 ypc for 1279 yards already on the season. They should run at will against this UCLA run dfense that ranks 119th according to PFF. Across all PFF positional matchups - Iowa’s defense outranks UCLA’s offensive position by an average of 83 ranks! In FEI and NPP/NPD we see a lot more of the same mismatches. We also have HUGE MISMATCHES in TO Margin and penalties per play, as Iowa ranks #12 and #1st where UCLA ranks #110 and #131st! Iowa in another blowout.
Iowa State -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
No write-up - busy busy.
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: (60-48) +5.75 units
No write-ups for these as too busy with work and kid and don’t want to half ass them like I did last week lol. Also posted below results from last week I forgot with last post.
Week 11 adds:
Cinn -4 (-110)
Mia/Gtech over 63.5 (-104)
Syracuse/BC Over 52 (-104)
Marshal -12 (-111)
Clemson/Vtech Over 53 (-104)
San Jose State +3 (-110)
Mississippi +2.5 (-111)
Oklahoma -2.5 (-125) 1.5x
Pittsburgh -7 (-115)
BYU -3 (-109)
Week 10:
Penn State +3.5 (-111) L
Minnesota ML (-143) W
Mississippi -7 (-115) W
UCF/Arizona Under 56.5 (-110) L
Northwestern +2.5 (-111) W
Texas AM/South Car Under 44 (-106) L
TCU/Baylor Over 62.5 (-110) W
Wyoming/NM Over 60 (-110) W
Oregon -14 (-111) W
UCLA +7 (-104) W
Washington +2.5 (-104) W
Season YTD: (60-48) +5.75 units
No write-ups for these as too busy with work and kid and don’t want to half ass them like I did last week lol. Also posted below results from last week I forgot with last post.
Week 11 adds:
Cinn -4 (-110)
Mia/Gtech over 63.5 (-104)
Syracuse/BC Over 52 (-104)
Marshal -12 (-111)
Clemson/Vtech Over 53 (-104)
San Jose State +3 (-110)
Mississippi +2.5 (-111)
Oklahoma -2.5 (-125) 1.5x
Pittsburgh -7 (-115)
BYU -3 (-109)
Week 10:
Penn State +3.5 (-111) L
Minnesota ML (-143) W
Mississippi -7 (-115) W
UCF/Arizona Under 56.5 (-110) L
Northwestern +2.5 (-111) W
Texas AM/South Car Under 44 (-106) L
TCU/Baylor Over 62.5 (-110) W
Wyoming/NM Over 60 (-110) W
Oregon -14 (-111) W
UCLA +7 (-104) W
Washington +2.5 (-104) W
Let's keep the solid season going!
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 11: 5-8 (-3.55 units)
Season YTD: (64-55) (54%) +2.3 units
Week 12:
Houston +2 (-105) 1.5x
Colorado -11 (-103)
Illinois ML (-127)
Rutgers +6 (-109)
Rutgers ML (+185) .5x
Houston +2 (-105) Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
If you would have asked me after the first month of the season which team was better I would definitely have said Arizona but over the last 2 months, Houston has proven the better team on paper. Despite some bad early losses, Houston has done it against a tough schedule, and have won 3 of their last 4 including wins over TCU, Utah, and Kansas State. They’ve done it on the defensive side of the ball, with the coverage improving in PFF by 17 ranks over the last month, they currently rank 67th and that's facing some tough offenses like UNLV, Iowa State, TCU, Kansas, K. State. They rank #37th in yards per pass allowed, and 57th in defensive passing efficiency. Arizona on the other side has been spiraling downward over the last month, they’ve lost 5 straight, in those games they averaged 17.2 ppg and allowed 38 ppg a huge margin and struggles on both sides of the ball. They have been particularly bad against the run, ranking #109th allowing 5.1 ypc and this Houston team under Fritz loves to run the ball 60% of the time. New Sophomore Zeon Chriss has officially taken over the starting role from the veteran Donovan Smith who has had his struggles over his career. Zeon Chriss is a much better dual threat and ran for 75 yards last week against K. State and went 11 for 11 for 103 yards and 1 TDs. He’s averaging 70% completion rate on the season. He should have a big day against an Arizona defense that looks clueless lately and ranks in the bottom 10% of almost every advanced state category and PFF. BIggest play of the weekend so far.
Colorado -11 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Not only does Utah defense not match up well against this Colorado offense that loves to pass and Sanders can buy time with his legs as Colorado’s 14th PFF receivers find pockets and beat coverage - But Utah will also be back to their crappy freshman QB, Issac Wilson who has struggled with even the crappy defenses and is 55% on the season with 8 TDs and 8 INT - he is not a rushing threat and ranks 147th out of 153 QBs with 20% of dropbacks - a huge step down from Shedeur Sander’s 4th ranked PFF passing grade. Over the last month of the season, I have Colorado’s defense as one of the most improved defenses in PFF, with their overall defense going up 26 ranks, their pass rush 59 ranks, their coverage 22 ranks, and run defense 2 ranks. They are currently in the top 30 of every category and surprisingly much better then Utah’s defense according to PFF (probably bc Utah’s defense is always on the field). In Defensive FEI that leaves Colorado with a 65 rank differential across all categories. Utah also ranks #113s in TO margin per game where Colorado ranks #10. Colorado will be fired up at home and expect them to win this game by a healthy two TDs and pull away in the 2nd half.
Illinois ML (-127) Risking 1.27 units to win 1 units
We got a senior game at home and the better team on paper. The biggest mismatch is at QB as I think Luke Altmyers is a huge upgrade over Aiden Chiles who has more INTs then TDs. We also have the much better coverage unit as Illinois is ranked 53rd where Michigan State ranks 123rd according to PFF. Michigan State has struggled to protect Aiden Chiles ranking 130th in pass blocking in PFF and #119th in sack % - which should be a problem again against an Illinois defense that ranks #30th in sack %. We also have the much more disciplined team ranking #22nd in penalties per play where Mich State ranks 90th and the team that protects the ball much better ranking #63rd in TO margin where MSU ranks 128th and #128th in INT%. In FEI stats, Illinois has a bigger advantage - an average margin of 29 ranks across all categories- where Mich States defense is nearly evenly matched with Illi’s defense. Illinois has been great at getting the small 4-6 yard plays, ranking #23rd in the nation where Michigan State gives a lot of those quick passes up and ranks #108th in plays over 4+ yards. Beliema will have his team ready after an upsetting loss to Minnesota where they were in it til the end.
Rutgers +6 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Rutgers ML (+185) Risking .5 units to win .93 units
Granted Rutgers defense has really taken a step back lately but this is too many points and I think they can win outright, they did just upset a much better 7-3 Minnesota team so no reason to think they don’t carry over the momentum into this week. Maryland really struggles in pass protection, ranking 126th in pass blocking according to PFF and Schiano’s D-Line is great at bringing pressure, ranking 31st in the pass rush in PFF. Rutgers defense has mainly struggled with the run game but that’s not what this Maryland team does effectively (ranking #113th in ypr) and only 40% of the time. Although Rutgers offense has struggled at times, this is Maryland defense that has been absolutely horrible, ranking 92nd in yards per play allowed, #100th in yards per pass allowed, 80th in red zone scoring % allowed, 94th overall in PFF, 107th in coverage, 77th against the run and 77th in tackling. Rutgers, as bad as it’s been still has an edge in every category but their struggling run defense. Maryland has one the last 3 times these two teams played, but I have a feeling Rtugers has another big upset this week so we taking the points and ML.
Week 11:
California -7 (-115) W
Iowa -6 (-110) L
Iowa State -2.5 (-120) L
Cinn -4 (-110) L
Mia/Gtech over 63.5 (-104) L
Syracuse/BC Over 52 (-104) W
Marshal -12 (-111) W
Clemson/Vtech Over 53 (-104) L
San Jose State +3 (-110) W
Mississippi +2.5 (-111) W
Oklahoma -2.5 (-125) 1.5x L
Week 11: 5-8 (-3.55 units)
Season YTD: (64-55) (54%) +2.3 units
Week 12:
Houston +2 (-105) 1.5x
Colorado -11 (-103)
Illinois ML (-127)
Rutgers +6 (-109)
Rutgers ML (+185) .5x
Houston +2 (-105) Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
If you would have asked me after the first month of the season which team was better I would definitely have said Arizona but over the last 2 months, Houston has proven the better team on paper. Despite some bad early losses, Houston has done it against a tough schedule, and have won 3 of their last 4 including wins over TCU, Utah, and Kansas State. They’ve done it on the defensive side of the ball, with the coverage improving in PFF by 17 ranks over the last month, they currently rank 67th and that's facing some tough offenses like UNLV, Iowa State, TCU, Kansas, K. State. They rank #37th in yards per pass allowed, and 57th in defensive passing efficiency. Arizona on the other side has been spiraling downward over the last month, they’ve lost 5 straight, in those games they averaged 17.2 ppg and allowed 38 ppg a huge margin and struggles on both sides of the ball. They have been particularly bad against the run, ranking #109th allowing 5.1 ypc and this Houston team under Fritz loves to run the ball 60% of the time. New Sophomore Zeon Chriss has officially taken over the starting role from the veteran Donovan Smith who has had his struggles over his career. Zeon Chriss is a much better dual threat and ran for 75 yards last week against K. State and went 11 for 11 for 103 yards and 1 TDs. He’s averaging 70% completion rate on the season. He should have a big day against an Arizona defense that looks clueless lately and ranks in the bottom 10% of almost every advanced state category and PFF. BIggest play of the weekend so far.
Colorado -11 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Not only does Utah defense not match up well against this Colorado offense that loves to pass and Sanders can buy time with his legs as Colorado’s 14th PFF receivers find pockets and beat coverage - But Utah will also be back to their crappy freshman QB, Issac Wilson who has struggled with even the crappy defenses and is 55% on the season with 8 TDs and 8 INT - he is not a rushing threat and ranks 147th out of 153 QBs with 20% of dropbacks - a huge step down from Shedeur Sander’s 4th ranked PFF passing grade. Over the last month of the season, I have Colorado’s defense as one of the most improved defenses in PFF, with their overall defense going up 26 ranks, their pass rush 59 ranks, their coverage 22 ranks, and run defense 2 ranks. They are currently in the top 30 of every category and surprisingly much better then Utah’s defense according to PFF (probably bc Utah’s defense is always on the field). In Defensive FEI that leaves Colorado with a 65 rank differential across all categories. Utah also ranks #113s in TO margin per game where Colorado ranks #10. Colorado will be fired up at home and expect them to win this game by a healthy two TDs and pull away in the 2nd half.
Illinois ML (-127) Risking 1.27 units to win 1 units
We got a senior game at home and the better team on paper. The biggest mismatch is at QB as I think Luke Altmyers is a huge upgrade over Aiden Chiles who has more INTs then TDs. We also have the much better coverage unit as Illinois is ranked 53rd where Michigan State ranks 123rd according to PFF. Michigan State has struggled to protect Aiden Chiles ranking 130th in pass blocking in PFF and #119th in sack % - which should be a problem again against an Illinois defense that ranks #30th in sack %. We also have the much more disciplined team ranking #22nd in penalties per play where Mich State ranks 90th and the team that protects the ball much better ranking #63rd in TO margin where MSU ranks 128th and #128th in INT%. In FEI stats, Illinois has a bigger advantage - an average margin of 29 ranks across all categories- where Mich States defense is nearly evenly matched with Illi’s defense. Illinois has been great at getting the small 4-6 yard plays, ranking #23rd in the nation where Michigan State gives a lot of those quick passes up and ranks #108th in plays over 4+ yards. Beliema will have his team ready after an upsetting loss to Minnesota where they were in it til the end.
Rutgers +6 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Rutgers ML (+185) Risking .5 units to win .93 units
Granted Rutgers defense has really taken a step back lately but this is too many points and I think they can win outright, they did just upset a much better 7-3 Minnesota team so no reason to think they don’t carry over the momentum into this week. Maryland really struggles in pass protection, ranking 126th in pass blocking according to PFF and Schiano’s D-Line is great at bringing pressure, ranking 31st in the pass rush in PFF. Rutgers defense has mainly struggled with the run game but that’s not what this Maryland team does effectively (ranking #113th in ypr) and only 40% of the time. Although Rutgers offense has struggled at times, this is Maryland defense that has been absolutely horrible, ranking 92nd in yards per play allowed, #100th in yards per pass allowed, 80th in red zone scoring % allowed, 94th overall in PFF, 107th in coverage, 77th against the run and 77th in tackling. Rutgers, as bad as it’s been still has an edge in every category but their struggling run defense. Maryland has one the last 3 times these two teams played, but I have a feeling Rtugers has another big upset this week so we taking the points and ML.
Week 11:
California -7 (-115) W
Iowa -6 (-110) L
Iowa State -2.5 (-120) L
Cinn -4 (-110) L
Mia/Gtech over 63.5 (-104) L
Syracuse/BC Over 52 (-104) W
Marshal -12 (-111) W
Clemson/Vtech Over 53 (-104) L
San Jose State +3 (-110) W
Mississippi +2.5 (-111) W
Oklahoma -2.5 (-125) 1.5x L
BiffTFinancial
Pretty much a regular
agree, like Houston quite a bit i'm on AZ TT under, BOL Dan!
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Thanks fellas good luck. Frustrating loss last night - how you move the ball so easily until you need 1 yard 
Week 12 Adding:
No writeups
Pittsburgh +12.5 (-110)
Texas -12.5 (-110)
Syracuse/Cal Over 56 (-108)
Nebraska +8.5 (-105)
Baylor -1 (-110)
Ark State/GA State Over 59 (-108)
FL/LSU Over 56 (-109)
Tenn/UGA Under 47.5 (-110)
Tennessee +9.5 (-109)
Week 12 Adding:
No writeups
Pittsburgh +12.5 (-110)
Texas -12.5 (-110)
Syracuse/Cal Over 56 (-108)
Nebraska +8.5 (-105)
Baylor -1 (-110)
Ark State/GA State Over 59 (-108)
FL/LSU Over 56 (-109)
Tenn/UGA Under 47.5 (-110)
Tennessee +9.5 (-109)
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 12: 8-6 (+0.89 units)
Season YTD: (72-61) (54%) +3.19 units
Week 13:
Ohio/Toledo Under 46 (-106)
Ohio/Toledo Under 46 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
We have two strong defenses that in the top 25 of most categories. Both defenses know how to stop the rush only allowing 3.5 ypc to their opponents. After stopping the rush they know how to get to the QB in the pass rush with Toledo ranking 23rd and Ohio ranking 16th - and pass protection is a big problem for both these offenses ranking 98th and 118th. In coverage, according to PFF, they are both stellar defenses too with Toledo ranking 12th and Ohioranking 28th. In contrast both offenses are in the bottom 25% of the league in most categories. In FEI,, across all categories, both defenses outrank the opposing offense by an average of 32 ranks for Toledo and 54 ranks for Ohio. Both defenses are also in the Top 25 of plays over 10+ yards allowed. The two teams are familiar with each other, although they didn’t play each other last year - in 2022 the total points scored was 24 so I think we’re in good position to see another under. I’ve been doing horrible with totals lately and especially unders but I think this may be my one for the week but we’ll see what the numbers say.
Week 12:
Houston +2 (-105) 1.5x L
Colorado -11 (-103) W
Illinois ML (-127) W
Rutgers +6 (-109) W
Rutgers ML (+185) .5x W
Pittsburgh +12.5 (-110) W
Texas -12.5 (-110) L
Syracuse/Cal Over 56 (-108) W
Nebraska +8.5 (-105) W
Baylor -1 (-110) W
Ark State/GA State Over 59 (-108) L
FL/LSU Over 56 (-109) L
Tenn/UGA Under 47.5 (-110) L
Tennessee +9.5 (-109) L
Week 12: 8-6 (+0.89 units)
Season YTD: (72-61) (54%) +3.19 units
Week 13:
Ohio/Toledo Under 46 (-106)
Ohio/Toledo Under 46 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
We have two strong defenses that in the top 25 of most categories. Both defenses know how to stop the rush only allowing 3.5 ypc to their opponents. After stopping the rush they know how to get to the QB in the pass rush with Toledo ranking 23rd and Ohio ranking 16th - and pass protection is a big problem for both these offenses ranking 98th and 118th. In coverage, according to PFF, they are both stellar defenses too with Toledo ranking 12th and Ohioranking 28th. In contrast both offenses are in the bottom 25% of the league in most categories. In FEI,, across all categories, both defenses outrank the opposing offense by an average of 32 ranks for Toledo and 54 ranks for Ohio. Both defenses are also in the Top 25 of plays over 10+ yards allowed. The two teams are familiar with each other, although they didn’t play each other last year - in 2022 the total points scored was 24 so I think we’re in good position to see another under. I’ve been doing horrible with totals lately and especially unders but I think this may be my one for the week but we’ll see what the numbers say.
Week 12:
Houston +2 (-105) 1.5x L
Colorado -11 (-103) W
Illinois ML (-127) W
Rutgers +6 (-109) W
Rutgers ML (+185) .5x W
Pittsburgh +12.5 (-110) W
Texas -12.5 (-110) L
Syracuse/Cal Over 56 (-108) W
Nebraska +8.5 (-105) W
Baylor -1 (-110) W
Ark State/GA State Over 59 (-108) L
FL/LSU Over 56 (-109) L
Tenn/UGA Under 47.5 (-110) L
Tennessee +9.5 (-109) L
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Week 13: 2-1 (+0.98 units)
Season YTD: (74-62) (+4.17 units)
Mean to do more writeups but ran out of time with work and daughter! Just the one!
Week 13 Adds:
UNC ML (-133)
Wis/Nebraska Under 43 (-111)
Western Kentucky +1 (+102)
Colorado ML (-135)
SMU -9 (-110)
Missouri -7 (-125)
Texas A&M ML (-124)
BYU/Arizona State Over 47.5 (-125)
Iowa State -6.5 (-108)
USC/UCLA Over 51.5 (-110)
Wisconsin/Nebraska Under 43 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Told myself I was only going to play the one under we hit earlier in the week but this one was just too appealing by the numbers. First we got cold, windy, weather factors in our favor. More importantly both of the offenses have been spiraling over the last 4 weeks according to PFF - Wisconsin’s offense has dropped 55 ranks overall with the biggest setback in Passing and Receiving grades. Nebraska’s offense has also dropped 15 ranks. Interestingly enough, Wisconsin’s defensive coverage ranking has jumped 118 ranks and currently sits at 16th after being ranked 134th after Week 8 this season. Both defenses are in the Top 20 of tackling. Both defenses have strong FEI advantages with Wisconsin’s defense with an average differential of 26 ranks and Nebraska’s defense with a differential of 42 ranks. Both offenses struggle with big plays with Wisconsin ranking 106th in plays over 10+ yards and Nebraskas ranking 70th. Both defenses are good at stopping plays over 10+ yards with Wisconsin ranking 23rd and Nebraska ranking 50th. Wisconsin’s the better team on paper, and have had the harder schedule, but will be playing in the loud Sea of Red that will make this a close low scoring affair.
Season YTD: (74-62) (+4.17 units)
Mean to do more writeups but ran out of time with work and daughter! Just the one!
Week 13 Adds:
UNC ML (-133)
Wis/Nebraska Under 43 (-111)
Western Kentucky +1 (+102)
Colorado ML (-135)
SMU -9 (-110)
Missouri -7 (-125)
Texas A&M ML (-124)
BYU/Arizona State Over 47.5 (-125)
Iowa State -6.5 (-108)
USC/UCLA Over 51.5 (-110)
Wisconsin/Nebraska Under 43 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Told myself I was only going to play the one under we hit earlier in the week but this one was just too appealing by the numbers. First we got cold, windy, weather factors in our favor. More importantly both of the offenses have been spiraling over the last 4 weeks according to PFF - Wisconsin’s offense has dropped 55 ranks overall with the biggest setback in Passing and Receiving grades. Nebraska’s offense has also dropped 15 ranks. Interestingly enough, Wisconsin’s defensive coverage ranking has jumped 118 ranks and currently sits at 16th after being ranked 134th after Week 8 this season. Both defenses are in the Top 20 of tackling. Both defenses have strong FEI advantages with Wisconsin’s defense with an average differential of 26 ranks and Nebraska’s defense with a differential of 42 ranks. Both offenses struggle with big plays with Wisconsin ranking 106th in plays over 10+ yards and Nebraskas ranking 70th. Both defenses are good at stopping plays over 10+ yards with Wisconsin ranking 23rd and Nebraska ranking 50th. Wisconsin’s the better team on paper, and have had the harder schedule, but will be playing in the loud Sea of Red that will make this a close low scoring affair.
BiffTFinancial
Pretty much a regular
BOL Dan!
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 13: 5-9 (-5.4 units)
Season YTD: (77-70) -2.21 units
No write ups for today's games but I will have them for tomorrow's games and all of the remaining games. Sad this seasons already over but we are learning a lot. One good week, one bad week - think we are due for a good week if the trend continues.
Week 14:
Colorado -16 (-110)
Minnesota (-106)
Stanford +2.5 (-102)
Nebraska +4.5 (-105)
Week 13: 5-9 (-5.4 units)
Season YTD: (77-70) -2.21 units
No write ups for today's games but I will have them for tomorrow's games and all of the remaining games. Sad this seasons already over but we are learning a lot. One good week, one bad week - think we are due for a good week if the trend continues.
Week 14:
Colorado -16 (-110)
Minnesota (-106)
Stanford +2.5 (-102)
Nebraska +4.5 (-105)
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 14: (3-1) +1.98 units
Season YTD: 80-71 (-0.23 units)
Week 14 Adds:
Kansas/Baylor Over 61.5 (-108)
Tennessee -10 (-114)
Notre Dame -7 (-112)
Iowa State ML (-118)
KSU/Iowa State over 51.5 (-110)
Northern Illinois/CMU Under 42.5 (-110)
Rutgers +2 (-109)
Texas ML (-190)
Miami -10.5 (-110)
WVU +3 (-110)
Week 14 adds:
Kansas/Baylor Over 61.5 (-108)
This one has all the making of a track meet. In PFF, both offenses outrank the positional match up of their defensive counterpart by an average of 75 ranks on offense for Kansas, and an average of 46 ranks on offense for Baylor. Both defenses have been piss poor and in the bottom 20% of most categories - including tackling where they rank 98th and 100th in the league. In FEI, both offenses have an advantage in every category as well and by an average of 33 ranks for Baylor and 40 ranks for Kansas. Kansas’s offenses struggled early on the season but have been on a roll lately. Both offenses average about 70 snaps per game and have a high pace of play. Both QBs have a high Big time throw % and a turnover worth play % - that should lead to more points. Kansas is the better team, but have given up a ton of big plays on defense and big plays are Baylor's specialty so this should be a close high scoring affair. They didn’t play each other last year, but had 58 points last time they played in 2022 - and I think both offenses are sparking at the right time and tough to prepare for, although they are both in the BIG 12. A classic BIG 12 noon shootout.
Tennessee -10 (-114)
Although Vanderbilt has kept it close with a lot of good teams, this Tennessee team is not like many other offenses they see and they have every bit of motivation to play as sound football as they can and blow out Vanderbilt - a much weaker team on paper. In PFF, Vanderbilt struggles on both sides of the ball ranking in the 80s where surprisingly Tennessee’s defense has shined most and in the Top 10 of almost every category - including 11th in the pass rush, 25th in coverage, 9th against the run and 32nd in tackling. Vanderbilt’s offensive line has been susceptible to the pass rush ranking 127th in the league so this could get ugly for Paiva if he doesn’t get enough protection - he is already banged up and has taken a lot of hits this season. The power ranks have a larger differential then the PFF positional ranks and that’s also because Vanderbilt has played one of the toughest schedules in the season. In FEI we have Tennessee the better team on both sides of the ball by an average of 45+ ranks across all categories. In NPP and NPD with have a Top 20 team vs a Vandy team that is ranked 96th and 78th in the two categories. Tennessee’s offense get lots of big chunk plays 10+ yards ranking 28th and Vanderbilt’s defense gives them up ranking 87th. On defense we have the same mismatch as Tennessee has given up 25th ranked least amount of plays over 10+ yards and Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled to produce them ranking 90th. Vandy already is going bowling so less motivation and having to focus on teams like Alabama, Texas, and LSU. Tennessee is just another tough opponent in what is a gauntlet of a schedule but they have performed much higher then expected to this point obviously keeping it pretty close with the better teams and upsetting a few.
Notre Dame -7 (-112)
I love this matchup and ND should dominate this game. USC was just 4-5 on the season when they made their QB change three weeks ago and two wins against a Nebraska and UCLA teams weren’t convincing enough for me that they can hang with this Notre Dame team. They are especially good at the run - with their offense ranking 4th in run offense and 11th in run blocking - a huge mismatch on paper with USC’s defense that ranks 89th in run defense. In PFF, Notre Dame is also a top 10 defense per usual and rank 2nd in coverage so although their receivers are beasts they are going to need a little more experience throwing against these corners -I’m sure we’ll get some INTs (maybe INT prop bet?) USC has also struggled to protect - ranking 111th in pass blocking and ND ranks 30th in the pass rush. We also have a huge special teams mismatch in PFF as ND ranks 2nd and USC ranks 83rd. In FEI, ND offense outranks in almost every category and by an average of 40 ranks - on defense by an average of 15 ranks. Notre Dame’s defense is top 6 team in 4+ yard plays allowed, 7+ yard plays allowed, 10+ yards plays allowed and long drive, short drive and medium drive situations - rare to see a defense in the top 5 of each of those drive situational rankings.
Iowa State ML (-118)
KSU/Iowa State over 51.5 (-110)
Ok, I’ll take the bait. My numbers says this total should be 10 points higher, but I guess the weather maybe it’s going to be a little cold? But last year's matchup was in a snowstorm and that didn’t stop this matchup from having 77 points. On paper, both of these offenses THRIVE in the areas where these defenses have been struggling. Iowa State lives by throwing the ball over the middle of the field - Rocco Becht is one of the highest graded passers - ranking 10th in the nation. They have two receivers in the Top 10 of the Power 4 for receiving grades within the middle of the field. Kansas State’s defense ranks 101st in coverage over the middle of the field and all of the teams the offenses they have struggled with have beat them there. Iowa State has really struggled against the run, ranking 120th now in PFF and have allowed a few teams to run all over them. In last year's game, Kansas State managed to run 100 plays but Iowa State was able to get almost as many yards as them in less than half the amount of plays - only 35 and average 19 yards per pass and 11 yards per run. At first I was just going to go with the over but the more I looked into it the more I also liked Iowa State and think they will be very motivated to win this game considering they have a chance at the playoff.
Rutgers +2 (-109)
I watch a lot of BIG 10 football and these two teams, so the eye test definitely factors into this pick - also the numbers agree with Rutgers having some key mismatches in PFF and FEI. Surprisingly Rutgers offense ranks 17th a full 88 ranks better than Michigan State’s offense that ranks 105. MSU’s defense also ranks 105 so the mismatch differential is huge on both sides of the ball in every position in PFF. In FEI , Rutgers offense outranks by an average of 35 ranks across all categories and on defense they are evenly matched. Also think we have a much better coaching staff, which can be seen in their discipline as Rutgers ranks 12th in penalties per play where MSU ranks 94th. They also protect the ball much better as MSU ranks #116th in TO margin per game.
Northern Illinois/CMU Under 42.5 (-110)
This is the only under this week because it had too many makings of a low scoring affair (despite these two teams scoring 68 combined last year) this year the numbers are very different. First off both teams are on the second string QBs as their first strings didn’t start the season off well. Both offenses have been horribly bad at allowing havoc in the back field with CMU ranking 100th in Havoc allowed and NIU ranking 64th. The defenses though have been great at creating Havoc with CMU ranking 26th and NIU ranking 41st leaving a big mismatch for both defenses to create problems in the back field. Northern Illinois’s defense is in top 25 of every category, except the pass rush, and rank 3rd in tackling. Central Michigan’s defense has struggled but mainly in coverage where they rank 100th but NIU’s offense ranks 114th in passing and 128th in receiving so they finally may make some plays if NIU doesn’t drop them. They also rank 39th in tackling. In FEI, NIU’s defense outranks them by an average of 82 ranks across all categories! On 3rd down conv % allowed, NIU rank’s 1st and CMU even ranks 23rd themselves. Both teams prefer to run the ball so the clock will keep moving and the freezing temperatures with 15 mph winds make me think this game will be a low scoring game.
No write-ups for the last 3 - it’s my busiest week of the year at work and its easier to just not do a writeup for all of them lol - so sad the season is over though. Miami homer alert .
Texas ML (-190)
Miami -10.5 (-110)
WVU +3 (-110)
Week 14: (3-1) +1.98 units
Season YTD: 80-71 (-0.23 units)
Week 14 Adds:
Kansas/Baylor Over 61.5 (-108)
Tennessee -10 (-114)
Notre Dame -7 (-112)
Iowa State ML (-118)
KSU/Iowa State over 51.5 (-110)
Northern Illinois/CMU Under 42.5 (-110)
Rutgers +2 (-109)
Texas ML (-190)
Miami -10.5 (-110)
WVU +3 (-110)
Week 14 adds:
Kansas/Baylor Over 61.5 (-108)
This one has all the making of a track meet. In PFF, both offenses outrank the positional match up of their defensive counterpart by an average of 75 ranks on offense for Kansas, and an average of 46 ranks on offense for Baylor. Both defenses have been piss poor and in the bottom 20% of most categories - including tackling where they rank 98th and 100th in the league. In FEI, both offenses have an advantage in every category as well and by an average of 33 ranks for Baylor and 40 ranks for Kansas. Kansas’s offenses struggled early on the season but have been on a roll lately. Both offenses average about 70 snaps per game and have a high pace of play. Both QBs have a high Big time throw % and a turnover worth play % - that should lead to more points. Kansas is the better team, but have given up a ton of big plays on defense and big plays are Baylor's specialty so this should be a close high scoring affair. They didn’t play each other last year, but had 58 points last time they played in 2022 - and I think both offenses are sparking at the right time and tough to prepare for, although they are both in the BIG 12. A classic BIG 12 noon shootout.
Tennessee -10 (-114)
Although Vanderbilt has kept it close with a lot of good teams, this Tennessee team is not like many other offenses they see and they have every bit of motivation to play as sound football as they can and blow out Vanderbilt - a much weaker team on paper. In PFF, Vanderbilt struggles on both sides of the ball ranking in the 80s where surprisingly Tennessee’s defense has shined most and in the Top 10 of almost every category - including 11th in the pass rush, 25th in coverage, 9th against the run and 32nd in tackling. Vanderbilt’s offensive line has been susceptible to the pass rush ranking 127th in the league so this could get ugly for Paiva if he doesn’t get enough protection - he is already banged up and has taken a lot of hits this season. The power ranks have a larger differential then the PFF positional ranks and that’s also because Vanderbilt has played one of the toughest schedules in the season. In FEI we have Tennessee the better team on both sides of the ball by an average of 45+ ranks across all categories. In NPP and NPD with have a Top 20 team vs a Vandy team that is ranked 96th and 78th in the two categories. Tennessee’s offense get lots of big chunk plays 10+ yards ranking 28th and Vanderbilt’s defense gives them up ranking 87th. On defense we have the same mismatch as Tennessee has given up 25th ranked least amount of plays over 10+ yards and Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled to produce them ranking 90th. Vandy already is going bowling so less motivation and having to focus on teams like Alabama, Texas, and LSU. Tennessee is just another tough opponent in what is a gauntlet of a schedule but they have performed much higher then expected to this point obviously keeping it pretty close with the better teams and upsetting a few.
Notre Dame -7 (-112)
I love this matchup and ND should dominate this game. USC was just 4-5 on the season when they made their QB change three weeks ago and two wins against a Nebraska and UCLA teams weren’t convincing enough for me that they can hang with this Notre Dame team. They are especially good at the run - with their offense ranking 4th in run offense and 11th in run blocking - a huge mismatch on paper with USC’s defense that ranks 89th in run defense. In PFF, Notre Dame is also a top 10 defense per usual and rank 2nd in coverage so although their receivers are beasts they are going to need a little more experience throwing against these corners -I’m sure we’ll get some INTs (maybe INT prop bet?) USC has also struggled to protect - ranking 111th in pass blocking and ND ranks 30th in the pass rush. We also have a huge special teams mismatch in PFF as ND ranks 2nd and USC ranks 83rd. In FEI, ND offense outranks in almost every category and by an average of 40 ranks - on defense by an average of 15 ranks. Notre Dame’s defense is top 6 team in 4+ yard plays allowed, 7+ yard plays allowed, 10+ yards plays allowed and long drive, short drive and medium drive situations - rare to see a defense in the top 5 of each of those drive situational rankings.
Iowa State ML (-118)
KSU/Iowa State over 51.5 (-110)
Ok, I’ll take the bait. My numbers says this total should be 10 points higher, but I guess the weather maybe it’s going to be a little cold? But last year's matchup was in a snowstorm and that didn’t stop this matchup from having 77 points. On paper, both of these offenses THRIVE in the areas where these defenses have been struggling. Iowa State lives by throwing the ball over the middle of the field - Rocco Becht is one of the highest graded passers - ranking 10th in the nation. They have two receivers in the Top 10 of the Power 4 for receiving grades within the middle of the field. Kansas State’s defense ranks 101st in coverage over the middle of the field and all of the teams the offenses they have struggled with have beat them there. Iowa State has really struggled against the run, ranking 120th now in PFF and have allowed a few teams to run all over them. In last year's game, Kansas State managed to run 100 plays but Iowa State was able to get almost as many yards as them in less than half the amount of plays - only 35 and average 19 yards per pass and 11 yards per run. At first I was just going to go with the over but the more I looked into it the more I also liked Iowa State and think they will be very motivated to win this game considering they have a chance at the playoff.
Rutgers +2 (-109)
I watch a lot of BIG 10 football and these two teams, so the eye test definitely factors into this pick - also the numbers agree with Rutgers having some key mismatches in PFF and FEI. Surprisingly Rutgers offense ranks 17th a full 88 ranks better than Michigan State’s offense that ranks 105. MSU’s defense also ranks 105 so the mismatch differential is huge on both sides of the ball in every position in PFF. In FEI , Rutgers offense outranks by an average of 35 ranks across all categories and on defense they are evenly matched. Also think we have a much better coaching staff, which can be seen in their discipline as Rutgers ranks 12th in penalties per play where MSU ranks 94th. They also protect the ball much better as MSU ranks #116th in TO margin per game.
Northern Illinois/CMU Under 42.5 (-110)
This is the only under this week because it had too many makings of a low scoring affair (despite these two teams scoring 68 combined last year) this year the numbers are very different. First off both teams are on the second string QBs as their first strings didn’t start the season off well. Both offenses have been horribly bad at allowing havoc in the back field with CMU ranking 100th in Havoc allowed and NIU ranking 64th. The defenses though have been great at creating Havoc with CMU ranking 26th and NIU ranking 41st leaving a big mismatch for both defenses to create problems in the back field. Northern Illinois’s defense is in top 25 of every category, except the pass rush, and rank 3rd in tackling. Central Michigan’s defense has struggled but mainly in coverage where they rank 100th but NIU’s offense ranks 114th in passing and 128th in receiving so they finally may make some plays if NIU doesn’t drop them. They also rank 39th in tackling. In FEI, NIU’s defense outranks them by an average of 82 ranks across all categories! On 3rd down conv % allowed, NIU rank’s 1st and CMU even ranks 23rd themselves. Both teams prefer to run the ball so the clock will keep moving and the freezing temperatures with 15 mph winds make me think this game will be a low scoring game.
No write-ups for the last 3 - it’s my busiest week of the year at work and its easier to just not do a writeup for all of them lol - so sad the season is over though. Miami homer alert .
Texas ML (-190)
Miami -10.5 (-110)
WVU +3 (-110)
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 14: 10-4 (+5.68 units)
Season YTD: (87-74) (54%) +3.47 units
Week 15:
UNLV +4.5 (-125)
Iowa Stat/Arz State Over 49.5 (-104)
Texas ML (-136)
Penn State +4 (-130)
SMU ML (-127)
Week 14:
Colorado -16 (-110) W
Minnesota (-106) W
Stanford +2.5 (-102) L
Nebraska +4.5 (-105) W
Kansas/Baylor Over 61.5 (-108) W
Tennessee -10 (-114) W
Notre Dame -7 (-112) W
Iowa State ML (-118) W
KSU/Iowa State over 51.5 (-110) L
Northern Illinois/CMU Under 42.5 (-110) W
Rutgers +2 (-109) W
Texas ML (-190) W
Miami -10.5 (-110) L
WVU +3 (-110) L
Week 14: 10-4 (+5.68 units)
Season YTD: (87-74) (54%) +3.47 units
Week 15:
UNLV +4.5 (-125)
Iowa Stat/Arz State Over 49.5 (-104)
Texas ML (-136)
Penn State +4 (-130)
SMU ML (-127)
Week 14:
Colorado -16 (-110) W
Minnesota (-106) W
Stanford +2.5 (-102) L
Nebraska +4.5 (-105) W
Kansas/Baylor Over 61.5 (-108) W
Tennessee -10 (-114) W
Notre Dame -7 (-112) W
Iowa State ML (-118) W
KSU/Iowa State over 51.5 (-110) L
Northern Illinois/CMU Under 42.5 (-110) W
Rutgers +2 (-109) W
Texas ML (-190) W
Miami -10.5 (-110) L
WVU +3 (-110) L
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 15: 1-4 (-4.18 units)
Season YTD: (88-78) (53%) -0.71 units
One good week, one bad week - can’t break out the cycle. Bowl season has typically been good to us- more time to study each game and more stats to pull from - but the transfer portal is a new era. Two to start - more to come.
Bowls:
Memphis/WVU Over 58.5 (-113)
UNLV ML (-135)
Memphis/WVU Over 58.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
WVU has one of the worst defenses statistically - especially against the pass which Memphis loves to throw the ball. If that wasn’t bad enough, looks like half of the defense is entering the transfer portal as well - a few on Memphis’s defense as well so there will be a lot of green defensive backs and busted coverages. Although Memphis is 10-3 and a mediocre defense by the numbers - they have played a significantly weaker schedule then WVU and rank 107th in Sagarin’s SOS ranking, compared to WVU’s 30th ranking. Memphis ranks 91s in tackling and with Garret Greene healthy (who missed a few games) and their other RB’s - Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson JR - I expect them to move the ball up and down the field easily. When they got smashed by Texas Tech in the last week of the season they turned the ball over 3 times, and turnover on downs on the first drive, leaving short fields for T. Tech to capitalize on. This should be a nice easy over to kick off the bowl season.
UNLV ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
I’ve been a big fan of this UNLV team and although Barry Odom left the team - I think they are in a much better position to win this bowl game then California who will be without their starting QB Fernando Mendoza who entered the portal - and their backup QB Chandler Rogers got injured in the final game too when he came in relief of Mendoza so they should be down to their 3rd string QB - CJ Harris. Cal will also have a new offensive coordinator calling the plays as Bryan Harsin was hired to take over play-calling duties but won’t start til next season. Cal will also be without their leading receiver so I think they will certainly face challenges with a whole new offense. For UNLV, they will have the experienced Hajj-Malik Williams who is in his 6th year and they have many guys who are playing their final game before heading off to the NFL, including Ricky White and senior Jackson Woodard - who led the team in tackles and received the Mountain West Defensive player of the year for a walk-on.
Week 15:
UNLV +4.5 (-125) L
Iowa Stat/Arz State Over 49.5 (-104) W
Texas ML (-136) L
Penn State +4 (-130) L
SMU ML (-127) L
Week 15: 1-4 (-4.18 units)
Season YTD: (88-78) (53%) -0.71 units
One good week, one bad week - can’t break out the cycle. Bowl season has typically been good to us- more time to study each game and more stats to pull from - but the transfer portal is a new era. Two to start - more to come.
Bowls:
Memphis/WVU Over 58.5 (-113)
UNLV ML (-135)
Memphis/WVU Over 58.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
WVU has one of the worst defenses statistically - especially against the pass which Memphis loves to throw the ball. If that wasn’t bad enough, looks like half of the defense is entering the transfer portal as well - a few on Memphis’s defense as well so there will be a lot of green defensive backs and busted coverages. Although Memphis is 10-3 and a mediocre defense by the numbers - they have played a significantly weaker schedule then WVU and rank 107th in Sagarin’s SOS ranking, compared to WVU’s 30th ranking. Memphis ranks 91s in tackling and with Garret Greene healthy (who missed a few games) and their other RB’s - Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson JR - I expect them to move the ball up and down the field easily. When they got smashed by Texas Tech in the last week of the season they turned the ball over 3 times, and turnover on downs on the first drive, leaving short fields for T. Tech to capitalize on. This should be a nice easy over to kick off the bowl season.
UNLV ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
I’ve been a big fan of this UNLV team and although Barry Odom left the team - I think they are in a much better position to win this bowl game then California who will be without their starting QB Fernando Mendoza who entered the portal - and their backup QB Chandler Rogers got injured in the final game too when he came in relief of Mendoza so they should be down to their 3rd string QB - CJ Harris. Cal will also have a new offensive coordinator calling the plays as Bryan Harsin was hired to take over play-calling duties but won’t start til next season. Cal will also be without their leading receiver so I think they will certainly face challenges with a whole new offense. For UNLV, they will have the experienced Hajj-Malik Williams who is in his 6th year and they have many guys who are playing their final game before heading off to the NFL, including Ricky White and senior Jackson Woodard - who led the team in tackles and received the Mountain West Defensive player of the year for a walk-on.
Week 15:
UNLV +4.5 (-125) L
Iowa Stat/Arz State Over 49.5 (-104) W
Texas ML (-136) L
Penn State +4 (-130) L
SMU ML (-127) L
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Happy Holidays to you and your family too Banker - let's finish the bowls strong
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 2-0 (+2 units)
Season YTD: (90-78) +1.29 units
More to come tomorrow
Bowl Adds:
Ohio -5.5 (-115)
Florida -10 (-102)
Indiana +7.5 (-115) 1.5x
Ohio -5.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Despite losing their head coach - Ohio is one of the few teams with almost no opt outs or transfers - and will have the same play caller Brian Smith who was promoted to interim head coach. They finished the last 6 games of their season, destroying their opponents - averaging 38 points per game, and only allowing 9.5 points per game on defense. Granted the teams weren't the best competition but they were on par with what Jacksonville State had played throughout the season as they are both about equal on most SOS rankings. Jacksonville State on the either side not only loses their master play-caller/head coach Rich Rodriguez but also more then half their defense is either transferring or opting out since the old Rich Rod is leaving them behind. It’s tough to see this team at all motivated to win this game. We also have some advantages in the pass rush, as Jacksonville State has struggled to protect their QB - ranking 90th in PFF pass blocking - where Ohio ranks 21st in the pass rush in PFF. Overall in FEI - Jacksonville State’s defense is in the bottom half of the league, ranking 94th in defensive FEI and leaving a 21 rank average differential in favor of Ohio’s offense across all categories. Ohio’s defense in FEI is a top 20 in almost every category - so I expect Jacksonville State's offense to struggle to keep pace with Ohio and they should eventually run away with this game.
Florida -10 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
The big GREEN FLAG to take Florida in this one is the old SOS indicator - as obviously SEC teams are a bit tougher to play then the AAC. Sagarin has UF with the 5th hardest schedule in the country - and Tulane with the 76st hardest schedule. Add to that the Tulane will be without it’s starting QB, Darian Mensah and I think Tulane will really struggle to put up points - despite UF having it’s fair share of opt outs and injuries. They had already lost a lot of their guys on defense (since Week 10) and still have gone on to upset Ole Miss and LSU in its last 3 weeks (as well as a beatdown of FSU). DJ Lagway, who took over the starting role for UF is 5-0 in games he started and played the entire game and I expect them to blow out this Tulane team who will be under-sized and over-matched. Tulane runs the ball 62% of the time, and that is the strength of this UF team as they rank 19th in run defense according to PFF. Take the SEC power conference with the worse record against the AAC team without their starting QB - ALL DAY!
Indiana +7.5 (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
This is just too many points - and granted Indiana has played a soft schedule to date, but so has Notre Dame so their stats are a bit padded from playing Army, Navy, and FSU. I was a bit surprised to see most SOS rankings have Notre Dame’s SOS ranked harder but I disagree. Notre Dame is a run first team - and don’t have the best receiving corps as they rank 57th overall in PFF. Indiana’s run defense has been one of the best in the nation - ranking #2nd in yards per carry allowed, and 5 overall in PFF run defense. Notre Dame’s run defense ranks 45th overall in PFF and they have yet to face an offense like this one as Rourke is ranked #3rd in PFF passing, their receivers are ranked 1st, 28th in rushing offense, and 10th in run blocking. We also have the much more disciplined team as Indiana ranks #35th in penalties per play - where Notre Dam ranks #80th. And we also have the much better kicker - as Notre Dame has only converted 44% of their FG’s - ranking 134th, and Indiana has hit 90% of their FG’s ranking 15th. This is the biggest play of the Bowl season so for and is for 1.5x units!
Bowls: 2-0 (+2 units)
Season YTD: (90-78) +1.29 units
More to come tomorrow
Bowl Adds:
Ohio -5.5 (-115)
Florida -10 (-102)
Indiana +7.5 (-115) 1.5x
Ohio -5.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Despite losing their head coach - Ohio is one of the few teams with almost no opt outs or transfers - and will have the same play caller Brian Smith who was promoted to interim head coach. They finished the last 6 games of their season, destroying their opponents - averaging 38 points per game, and only allowing 9.5 points per game on defense. Granted the teams weren't the best competition but they were on par with what Jacksonville State had played throughout the season as they are both about equal on most SOS rankings. Jacksonville State on the either side not only loses their master play-caller/head coach Rich Rodriguez but also more then half their defense is either transferring or opting out since the old Rich Rod is leaving them behind. It’s tough to see this team at all motivated to win this game. We also have some advantages in the pass rush, as Jacksonville State has struggled to protect their QB - ranking 90th in PFF pass blocking - where Ohio ranks 21st in the pass rush in PFF. Overall in FEI - Jacksonville State’s defense is in the bottom half of the league, ranking 94th in defensive FEI and leaving a 21 rank average differential in favor of Ohio’s offense across all categories. Ohio’s defense in FEI is a top 20 in almost every category - so I expect Jacksonville State's offense to struggle to keep pace with Ohio and they should eventually run away with this game.
Florida -10 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
The big GREEN FLAG to take Florida in this one is the old SOS indicator - as obviously SEC teams are a bit tougher to play then the AAC. Sagarin has UF with the 5th hardest schedule in the country - and Tulane with the 76st hardest schedule. Add to that the Tulane will be without it’s starting QB, Darian Mensah and I think Tulane will really struggle to put up points - despite UF having it’s fair share of opt outs and injuries. They had already lost a lot of their guys on defense (since Week 10) and still have gone on to upset Ole Miss and LSU in its last 3 weeks (as well as a beatdown of FSU). DJ Lagway, who took over the starting role for UF is 5-0 in games he started and played the entire game and I expect them to blow out this Tulane team who will be under-sized and over-matched. Tulane runs the ball 62% of the time, and that is the strength of this UF team as they rank 19th in run defense according to PFF. Take the SEC power conference with the worse record against the AAC team without their starting QB - ALL DAY!
Indiana +7.5 (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
This is just too many points - and granted Indiana has played a soft schedule to date, but so has Notre Dame so their stats are a bit padded from playing Army, Navy, and FSU. I was a bit surprised to see most SOS rankings have Notre Dame’s SOS ranked harder but I disagree. Notre Dame is a run first team - and don’t have the best receiving corps as they rank 57th overall in PFF. Indiana’s run defense has been one of the best in the nation - ranking #2nd in yards per carry allowed, and 5 overall in PFF run defense. Notre Dame’s run defense ranks 45th overall in PFF and they have yet to face an offense like this one as Rourke is ranked #3rd in PFF passing, their receivers are ranked 1st, 28th in rushing offense, and 10th in run blocking. We also have the much more disciplined team as Indiana ranks #35th in penalties per play - where Notre Dam ranks #80th. And we also have the much better kicker - as Notre Dame has only converted 44% of their FG’s - ranking 134th, and Indiana has hit 90% of their FG’s ranking 15th. This is the biggest play of the Bowl season so for and is for 1.5x units!
GL today Dan!
