UFC 168 - The Rematch (Silva/Weidman)

STEED

STEED

CTG Partner
Staff member
-- MIDDLEWEIGHT TITLE FIGHT
Weidman +135 vs Silva


-- WOMEN BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT
Rousey -800 vs Tate


-- HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT
Barnett +550 vs Browne


-- -- LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT
Miller vs Camoes


-- -- FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT
Poirier vs Brandao


-- -- MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT
Leben vs Hall


-- -- LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT
Tibau vs Johnson


-- -- FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT
Siver vs Gamburyan


-- -- WELTERWEIGHT BOUT
Howard vs Bahadurzada


-- -- WELTERWEIGHT BOUT
Macario vs Voelker


-- -- FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT
Peralta vs Payan
 
Think Travis handles Josh but I don't quite get why line so steep. I would think there's a DECENTLY small chance of Barnett wrapping him up in a sub if he gets him down...
 
Just my initial thoughts:

Can't pick a winner in Weidman/Silva. I had Weidman last fight, but that was bc there was value.

Ronda probably destroys Tate. I have a gut feeling that Tate may pull it off though. I only say that bc I haven't seen any type of well rounded game from Rousey. Even whatsherface had Rousey's back and really could have had a choke. I thought Tate was doing well on the feet last time, but was clearly over anxious and you can't do that and get within Rousey's "Judo range"

Barnett/Browne....I'm one of Browne's biggest fans and I've been loading up the money truck with him. But, I am amazed that the line is so steep. I thought Browne would be -150-175ish. I mean, there are ways for Barnett to win this fight.

Miller/Camoes....anyone know why Camoes gets to fight Miller? Miller is clearly one of the best in his division. He typically only loses to the best of the best (Henderson, Maynard, Edgar), but he did lose to Healy which was a big surprise. Camoes hasn't fought since early 2012 and lost to Guillard. Why is he in this fight? Miller -400.

Porier/Brandeo....This should be a good fight. Porier -200

Hall/Leben......Am I delusional in thinking Hall is going to get his mindset right in this fight? Leben is tough as nails, but he may get decapitated. Hall -250

Johnson/Tibau......AN interesting fight for me. One that I cannot predict. Coin flip. Johnson is too inconsistent for me to want to lay money with him.

Siver/Manny G......Not a huge fan of Manny G. Siver looked good for a lot of the fight vs. Swanson; Swanson is just a killer. I have Siver in this one. THink he should be -175

I will have to research the other guys on the card. My thoughts are also subject to change :)

Where is Son of Bal?
 
[video=youtube;I6Zb92IfHkI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6Zb92IfHkI&noredirect=1[/video]

He back.
 
crawdads said:
I like silva. He was dominating the fight until he started goofing off.really hope he comes through.
Click to expand...

Im not sure how you came to the conclusion that he was dominating the fight.

Round 1
hi-res-7488132_crop_exact.jpg

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Spor
Chris Weidman makes the most of his successful takedown.

Thirty seconds into the first round,Weidman managed to land one of the two takedown attempts for the round, resulting in a 50 percenttakedown success rate. Better yet, he then passed Silva's guard in the process of landing some effective ground-and-pound.
At the 2:30 mark, Weidman was even bold enough to drop down for a heel-hook attempt—it marked the only submission effort for the fight. With a little over two minutes left in the round, both men eventually rose to their feet for some more of Silva's taunting andWeidman's cautious attempts to exchange strikes.
In total, Silva landed 15 of his 26 total strikes and nine of his 18 significant strikes, whereas Weidman landed 21 of his 39 total strikes and 11 of his 27 significant strikes.
In spite of the challenger's success in landing a takedown, and Weidman edging out a guard pass and attempting a submission, the champion threw a lower volume of strikes but landed more of them. Silva ended the round with 50 percent of his significant strikes landed as opposed to Weidman's 41 percent.


Here are sherdog scores.

Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Weidman
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Weidman
Mike Whitman scores the round 10-9 Weidman
 
Hey guys. I'm obviously confused about the talk of the Browne/Barnett line. 5d has Browne +155/Barnett -195.
 
STEED said:
Silva was not winning that fight before he got dropped lol that's absurd.
Click to expand...

I just rewatched it. Anderson lost the first half of the round, Chris took him down landed a couple decent punches but pretty much did nothing. He got up and Anderson won the second half of the round, hit him with some good jabs and strong leg kicks, I dont think Chris landed any punches on their feet, he looked a couple steps slower..
 
Dollaz said:
:)

Where is Son of Bal?
Click to expand...

My Spidey sense was tingling. Damn you holidays making my life intolerably busy and "forcing" me to drink most every night... Last card I took a beating betting Joe Ben straight and decision for a pretty large chunk which, thankfully, wasn't posted here.

Initial thoughts: Was really hoping to see Browne +200 but the books are starting to figure it out with him. Guy is a freak athlete for his size and clearly has proven he can handle ridiculous punishment and still be incredibly dangerous. Barnett was absolutely outmatched on the feet against Cormier and now he's fighting a guy with probably a foot more range and a more dynamic striking game? I don't see many scenarios where Barnett is able to bully Browne and get him on the cage early like he did against Mir. Barnett is ridiculously tough though, and my biggest concern is his ability to take this fight into the second half and get Browne down when both guys are tired. If Barnett gets this fight to the ground Browne is clearly in deep shit but Browne has proven to take him down you better be ready to take serious damage. I made Browne a slight fav in this fight and will have a pretty solid wager on him but am waiting on ITD and KO props.

Also agree on the Rousey/Tate fight. Rousey is an incredibly dominant one trick pony but it's only a matter of time before a solid athlete comes in, gets her out of the first round, tires her, and is able to out point / beat her up for the remainder of the fight. I'm sure most sharps are hoping late money pours in on Ronda and we see Tate +750 or better. Definitely worth a few peanuts at that point. Also, incredibly hard to cap where Rousey's mind is for this fight, fuck, she's been shooting that jack off car movie for most of the TUF season and has been crying for the last two weeks how everyone is "instigating her" to induce emotional responses. Blah blah blah, I'm sure 70-80% of the time she brutally arm bars Tate but there's more than a small chance Tate can drag this past the first round and break Rousey's confidence.

I'm already on Weidman Sub +550 prop, didn't quite get the fucked up +1200 BOL prop this time around but +400 or better is definitely value. It's Weidman or nothing for me in this fight. Zero chance I bet a guy who was easily taken down and almost subbed in round one and brutally KO'd in round two in the previous encounter. If Silva comes back and wins in dominant fashion he is without doubt the greatest of all time.
 
STEED said:
My book had Brown +500 as of 8am this morning...
Click to expand...

I would literally bridge jump this line. Browne closed around +140 against Overeem. Hell, Gilbert Yvel YEARS past what would be his "prime" closed @ +425 against Barnett in Affliction. This was four years ago. Barnett isn't exactly a spring chicken at 36.
 
Interested to see what price we get for Voelker. Dude was basically thrown to the wolves against Lawler on two weeks notice. Very well rounded guy who's tough as nails and knows how to win fights. He's being put up against some TUF Brazil dude who gassed badly after round one and was easily stopped in the final. Hopefully we see something under -200.
 
Son_of_Balrog said:
My Spidey sense was tingling. Damn you holidays making my life intolerably busy and "forcing" me to drink most every night... Last card I took a beating betting Joe Ben straight and decision for a pretty large chunk which, thankfully, wasn't posted here.

Initial thoughts: Was really hoping to see Browne +200 but the books are starting to figure it out with him. Guy is a freak athlete for his size and clearly has proven he can handle ridiculous punishment and still be incredibly dangerous. Barnett was absolutely outmatched on the feet against Cormier and now he's fighting a guy with probably a foot more range and a more dynamic striking game? I don't see many scenarios where Barnett is able to bully Browne and get him on the cage early like he did against Mir. Barnett is ridiculously tough though, and my biggest concern is his ability to take this fight into the second half and get Browne down when both guys are tired. If Barnett gets this fight to the ground Browne is clearly in deep shit but Browne has proven to take him down you better be ready to take serious damage. I made Browne a slight fav in this fight and will have a pretty solid wager on him but am waiting on ITD and KO props.

Also agree on the Rousey/Tate fight. Rousey is an incredibly dominant one trick pony but it's only a matter of time before a solid athlete comes in, gets her out of the first round, tires her, and is able to out point / beat her up for the remainder of the fight. I'm sure most sharps are hoping late money pours in on Ronda and we see Tate +750 or better. Definitely worth a few peanuts at that point. Also, incredibly hard to cap where Rousey's mind is for this fight, fuck, she's been shooting that jack off car movie for most of the TUF season and has been crying for the last two weeks how everyone is "instigating her" to induce emotional responses. Blah blah blah, I'm sure 70-80% of the time she brutally arm bars Tate but there's more than a small chance Tate can drag this past the first round and break Rousey's confidence.

I'm already on Weidman Sub +550 prop, didn't quite get the fucked up +1200 BOL prop this time around but +400 or better is definitely value. It's Weidman or nothing for me in this fight. Zero chance I bet a guy who was easily taken down and almost subbed in round one and brutally KO'd in round two in the previous encounter. If Silva comes back and wins in dominant fashion he is without doubt the greatest of all time.
Click to expand...

He took him down once at ease, then couldnt at all the rest of the fight.
 
Son_of_Balrog said:
Interested to see what price we get for Voelker. Dude was basically thrown to the wolves against Lawler on two weeks notice. Very well rounded guy who's tough as nails and knows how to win fights. He's being put up against some TUF Brazil dude who gassed badly after round one and was easily stopped in the final. Hopefully we see something under -200.
Click to expand...

Yep was on Robbie for a decent chunk in 171 in that one...think we had a nice thread on it. I don't wanna call Lawler underrated, but I'm not certain he gets the credit he deserves yet. Split decision vs Rory, and then 3/4 ended with a TKO in Rd. 2 or earlier.

As for Voelker, any concern with his time off? He hasn't fought for a while (I haven't looked at dates exactly) it seems.
 
Crawdads, I haven't found anyone but you that thinks Silva won the first round, much less dominated. I respect your opinion though.

Having said that, how many other Weidman takedown attempts were there? I dont remember him trying much. As some people were saying, that's one of the worst gameplans they have seen from Weidman....I think Silva got in his head. But you know what? he still KTFO. I think Weidman fights smarter this time and expect to see a lot more grappling. And Weidman is different in that he wrestles really well like Chael, but Weidman is actually dangerous to submit you as well. That is something Silva did not have to worry about with Chael.

Voelker just fought Robbie over the summer. I was actually impressed with him in that fight. But, then I remember he lost to Cote as well. The guy has 3 fights with Roger Bowling and those are 2 of his most impressive wins. He's a vet. I think I pass on that guy unless something changes my mind.
 
Dollaz said:
Crawdads, I haven't found anyone but you that thinks Silva won the first round, much less dominated. I respect your opinion though.

Having said that, how many other Weidman takedown attempts were there? I dont remember him trying much. As some people were saying, that's one of the worst gameplans they have seen from Weidman....I think Silva got in his head. But you know what? he still KTFO. I think Weidman fights smarter this time and expect to see a lot more grappling. And Weidman is different in that he wrestles really well like Chael, but Weidman is actually dangerous to submit you as well. That is something Silva did not have to worry about with Chael.

Voelker just fought Robbie over the summer. I was actually impressed with him in that fight. But, then I remember he lost to Cote as well. The guy has 3 fights with Roger Bowling and those are 2 of his most impressive wins. He's a vet. I think I pass on that guy unless something changes my mind.
Click to expand...

Never said he dominated. I thought it was close.

Really hyped for this fight. The only other fight I have been this excited for was the Aldo v Pettis.
 
last fight was just weird all the way around..still think weidman does it again.
 
Should be epic.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/APlymTaGDQs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
crawdads said:
Never said he dominated. I thought it was close.

Really hyped for this fight. The only other fight I have been this excited for was the Aldo v Pettis.
Click to expand...

I like silva. He was dominating the fight until he started goofing off.really hope he comes through.




I was going off this comment. Best of luck tho.
 
UFC 168 - Welterweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - Saturday, December 28, 2013 7:00 PM
2001 Estevan Payan +155 Over 2½ +105
2002 Robbie Peralta -195 Under 2½ -145

1901 William Macario +140 Over 1½ -170
1902 Bobby Voelker -180 Under 1½ +130

UFC 168 - Welterweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - Fox Sports 1 - Saturday, December 28, 2013 8:00 PM
1801 Siyar Bahadurzada -160 Over 1½ -180
1802 John Howard +120 Under 1½ +140

UFC 168 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - Fox Sports 1 - Saturday, December 28, 2013 8:30 PM
1701 Manvel Gamburyan +180 Over 2½ -180
1702 Dennis Siver -260 Under 2½ +140

UFC 168 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - Fox Sports 1 - Saturday, December 28, 2013 9:00 PM
1601 Gleison Tibau -140 Over 2½ -140
1602 Michael Johnson +100 Under 2½ +100

UFC 168 - Middleweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - Fox Sports 1 - Saturday, December 28, 2013 9:30 PM
1501 Chris Leben +200 Over 2½ +100
1502 Uriah Hall -280 Under 2½ -140

UFC 168 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, December 28, 2013 10:00 PM
1401 Dustin Poirier -235 Over 1½ -205
1402 Diego Brandao +195 Under 1½ +165

UFC 168 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, December 28, 2013 10:30 PM
1301 Fabr??cio Camoes +300 Over 2½ -125
1302 Jim Miller -360 Under 2½ -105

UFC 168 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, December 28, 2013 11:00 PM
1201 Travis Browne +170 Over 1½ -115
1202 Josh Barnett -200 Under 1½ -115

UFC 168 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, December 28, 2013 11:30 PM
1101 Miesha Tate +550 Over 1½ +160
1102 Ronda Rousey -800 Under 1½ -195

UFC 168 - Middleweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, December 28, 2013 11:59 PM
1001 Chris Weidman +130 Over 2½ +100
1002 Anderson Silva -150 Under 2½ -130
 
Son_of_Balrog said:
Interested to see what price we get for Voelker. Dude was basically thrown to the wolves against Lawler on two weeks notice. Very well rounded guy who's tough as nails and knows how to win fights. He's being put up against some TUF Brazil dude who gassed badly after round one and was easily stopped in the final. Hopefully we see something under -200.
Click to expand...

5d currently...

1901 William Macario +140 Over 1½ -170
1902 Bobby Voelker -180 Under 1½ +130
 
Can't pick a winner in Weidman/Silva. Gut says Weidman

Rousey probably wins by armbar. I do think Tate has a better performance and I think the odds should be a lot shorter though. If it keeps rising, I'm playing Tate for small

Barnett/Browne....Think I'm in the minority, but I have Browne here. I will ackowledge I tend to give up on older fighters before they are truly finished, but in some instances I'm ahead of the curve. I like Browne a lot in general. Small play on him. Browne by decision

Miller/Camoes....Miller easily.

Porier/Brandeo....This should be a good fight. Brandao comes out strong, but I think Porier withstands and gets a sub in 2nd or 3rd. Tought fight though.

Hall/Leben......Hall inside the distance. What is Leben going to do? He's tough as hell, but will his chin be able to withstand the power of Hall? Hall has the advantage in every aspect that this fight will go except experience. Hall by TKO; round 2.

Johnson/Tibau......Tibau has a tough chin and is impossible to take down. Johnson is the quicker guy and has the better boxing. I think the fight either comes out one of two ways; Johnson keeps his range and picks Tibeau apart or Tibau gets the takedown and Johnson is terrible off his back. I think it's more realistic to think Tibau takes Johnson down. He may get hit, but if he gets dazed at all, he's gonna take Johnson down. Tebau by 3rd round submission.

Siver/Manny G......Money has rightfully moved in Siver's direction. Possible parlay piece with Siyar. Siver wins by UD

Siyar/Howard- Howard isn't really great at anything, but solid fighter. Is dropping an extra 15 pounds, which concerns me. I'm picking Siyar, may use him in parlay. Siyar by decision

Micario/Voelker- Pretty even fight, imo. I think Micario has a chance to stop him in the first round, but Micario gassed really bad last fight. If it goes past 1, Voelker may have huge advantage. Laying off, but picking Micario by KO round 1.

Piyan/Peralta- I pick Peralta to win, but can't trust him enough to place money on him. Big time disappointment last fight vs. Akira. Peralta by TKO

 
Couldn't disagree more on Hall. I think Leben wins. Every fight Hall won in the TUF house was because of fear. Leben isn't afraid of anyone. I think Hall is a below average fighter with some power.


Chances Browne wins by KO?
 
Lebrons lack of fear may work against him. Hes too slow and still can't wrestle. How do you think he beats Hall? Tko. Decision?
 
Dollaz said:
Lebrons lack of fear may work against him. Hes too slow and still can't wrestle. How do you think he beats Hall? Tko. Decision?
Click to expand...
either one. I'm not a Hall believer at all. I think Leben is a better fighter. Especially now that he's in a good camp in San Diego
 
mcdrewcarey187 said:
either one. I'm not a Hall believer at all. I think Leben is a better fighter. Especially now that he's in a good camp in San Diego
Click to expand...

The problem is he's a old 33 with a lot of mileage on his body. I just can't picture a way Leben wins this fight outside of a flash KO. But how is he going to hit Hall? Hall is too quick for him and way too athletic. Leben is essentially going to be a punching bag, imo
 
Browne +167
Hall backend of parlay with Wash
Weidman/Silva u2.5 -120
Tibeau/Siver +134
Miller Peralta -110
Micario/Porier +222
 
mcdrewcarey187 said:
Couldn't disagree more on Hall. I think Leben wins. Every fight Hall won in the TUF house was because of fear. Leben isn't afraid of anyone. I think Hall is a below average fighter with some power.


Chances Browne wins by KO?
Click to expand...

Leben is a shell of what he used to be. guy needs to retire ASAP. And I love him as a fighter. He's won me a lot of $$$, but his best days are long gone. Long gone.
 
if Silva loses…he retires?
Why do i have a feeling Rousey and Tate hug each other and muff dives one another after the fight
 
headin to the bar now...this is the most excited i've been for a card i think....

difference between and fun night and profitable one for me:

Tibau -135
howard +135
weidman +135
browne +130

parlay: 1 wins 4.8

miller
rousey
poirier
hall
nd
ksu

Leggo.
 
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