time to post my week 9 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
122-100-10 55.0%

Another good week last week. Had potential to be much better but I also got lucky with the Arkansas overtime result so it wasn't all bad.

Locked In

Arizona State -1
Virginia Tech -3
Tennessee -7
Notre Dame -9.5
Idaho/NMSU Under 68
Vols/UK over 53
USC/Cal over 66.5 (this will close quite higher so hop on)
Texas Longhorns -6.5
Wyoming 28
Wyoming/utah st under 50
Minnesota 14.5 -115
Ok st 2h -3 -various juices
 
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I have a very strong lean to Notre Dame this week. I think they destroy Temple in woodshed fashion. Seems there is some public support for the owls so I am going to wait it out.
 
GL this week, CC. 55% is outstanding, continued success the rest of the year.

You think UF was short at 2.5? Was thinking this would be closer to a 6
 
CrimsonK said:
GL this week, CC. 55% is outstanding, continued success the rest of the year.

You think UF was short at 2.5? Was thinking this would be closer to a 6
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I went back and forth of whether it should be under a FG or exactly a FG ... and settled on Exactly a FG. so I think it is pretty spot on for the most part. I bet this is Scott Sharp's favorite game for obvious reasons....

Ya 55% with that number of plays is something I am pretty proud of right now. Pretty much right about at my season goals $ wise and I am in October. Though I also fade historically and then rebound in bowls. It should be mentioned, I am slightly below that percentage factoring everything in (The 55% is my posted ctg and includes my original bets on games that i sometimes bet multiple times.... so it has some BOL winners/pushes that were pushes/losses at some other numbers i played them at). Still been a great season but the ctg posted winning % isn't exactly spot on.
 
cc, miss your one NFL play per week, didn't you kill it on those last year or am I only recalling the good times?
 
tipyerbartender said:
cc, miss your one NFL play per week, didn't you kill it on those last year or am I only recalling the good times?
Click to expand...

you are the only one recalling the good times.

Did well in nfl for a long time. Last few years haven't been great and luckily i haven't been involved much. They are some of the tightest lines in the world and one of those sports where even the dumb bettor who makes his decision looking at the USA Today while at the watercooler has a fairly decent idea of each team's quality in comparison to other teams. The Fantasy Football has gone a long ways to making a more informed public bettor too. There is just way less dumb money as a percentage of the pool in NFL and the opening numbers just almost never suck.

I also just don't have the time to do it right. The college football is a passion of love .... I love handicapping it and i love watching it. So I make time for it because I love it .. and yet there is a part of me that cannot wait for February because I will have a weekend day back and can rest and relax and spend more time with friends and family. I work really hard and that work coincides with travel and I could use my Saturdays back .... not to mention the evenings and late nights spent handicapping. No way i could throw NFL in there. I say that but come March I will be in CFB withdrawal too. Grass is always greener ....
 
ksimpsc said:
Love to hear the VT thoughts. I am a hokie too I am biased here
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Largely situation.

21 year consecutive bowl streak

at bc
at gt
vs unc
at uva

They aren't sweeping the last three.

BC had 79 yards and 4 first downs last game. Just epic bad. Duke is sort of a nice lead in game for what BC does defensively too
 
I looked.. I guess I did ok in the game a week last year after all. I just know I didn't make much/any NFL money last year (the unposted)
 
clowncar said:
Largely situation.

21 year consecutive bowl streak

at bc
at gt
vs unc
at uva

They aren't sweeping the last three.

BC had 79 yards and 4 first downs last game. Just epic bad. Duke is sort of a nice lead in game for what BC does defensively too
Click to expand...
yea i have been fading BC a lot thought the defense there would be an advantage good point about the Duke D. The inner hokie has me a little worried but I may wait to see if 2.5 pops and take it and hope to see another game with it being 3-0 at the end of regulation with Beamer jumping for joy lol
 
clowncar said:
I went back and forth of whether it should be under a FG or exactly a FG ... and settled on Exactly a FG. so I think it is pretty spot on for the most part. I bet this is Scott Sharp's favorite game for obvious reasons....
Click to expand...

I have some major concerns about the UGA QB. I'm not really sure why Richt has stuck with Lambert. Rates to be areal low scoring game, would guess total lined around 48.5?
 
ksimpsc said:
yea i have been fading BC a lot thought the defense there would be an advantage good point about the Duke D. The inner hokie has me a little worried but I may wait to see if 2.5 pops and take it and hope to see another game with it being 3-0 at the end of regulation with Beamer jumping for joy lol
Click to expand...

BC defense is legit but if the offense can't get 200 yards they will tire. VT has some self-destruct ability of their own and BC is not an easy place to play at night but this is an early game. I think the defense also has a chance to get demoralized at some point. I rather enjoy BC football but that is the type of football fan I am ... the kind that likes intelligent, hard hitting, well schemed, well coached defense. I can barely watch the Memphis at Tulsa type product. That resembles football but I don't consider it football.
 
Can I get your thoughts on Oregon/ASU? I'm a little back and forth on this one.

Oregon is a much better offense with Adams at qb and I'm not sure if they lines have been re-adjusted to reflect that.
 
phife said:
Can I get your thoughts on Oregon/ASU? I'm a little back and forth on this one.

Oregon is a much better offense with Adams at qb and I'm not sure if they lines have been re-adjusted to reflect that.
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I will probably give that one a bit of a write up ...
I agree there is a big difference between Adams and Lockie or the soph for that matter.

But I think at the end of the day, Oregon goes as far as their run offense takes them and ASU has given up 76,62, 49 and 72 the last four games. Not against slouch either ..... USC UCLA Colorado and Utah. So I think Oregon may just need a lot more Adams than they are used to. I also think it is going to be a crazy weeknight pre-halloween atmosphere.

But i will get into it more later in the week ... but I like the match up.
 
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tipyerbartender said:
From your lips to Touchdown Jesus' ears. Lot of the ESPNers seem to think that's a play-in game too.
Click to expand...

Wow - really?

Thank God Clemson already beat Notre Dame, and Clemson's AD and an alumnus (Bobby Johnson) serve on the committee. But that sounds like someone from the SEC or Big 12 is going to get screwed.
 
M.W. said:
Wow - really?

Thank God Clemson already beat Notre Dame, and Clemson's AD and an alumnus (Bobby Johnson) serve on the committee. But that sounds like someone from the SEC or Big 12 is going to get screwed.
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If notre dame runs the table (still have pitt too) then Utah becomes the only conceivable team from the Pac that could be selected before ndame. All others would be two loss teams and if it is Stanford a team they beat head up who has more losses.

ACC Clem
Big12 baylor or TCU but only if undefeated. A one loss notre dame where their only loss is a road game against another team in the playoff that they probably should have won is going to look better than a one loss tcu or baylor given their schedules.
SEC 1 loss SEC is going to make it
Bigten

So not a play in game but pretty close.
 
M.W. said:
Wow - really?

Thank God Clemson already beat Notre Dame, and Clemson's AD and an alumnus (Bobby Johnson) serve on the committee. But that sounds like someone from the SEC or Big 12 is going to get screwed.
Click to expand...

1 loss ND team, whose only loss would be by 2 at unbeaten clemson, and with wins over Stanford, USC, Pitt and Navy will be there. Especially if a 1 loss Temple or Navy win the AAC. The way the Big 12 is going we don't know how the last month of Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma an Oklahoma State will pan out
 
Don't post a lot but read your thread every week. Having a good year so far here, don't always take the same sides but it's very beneficial to hear your perspective. Love reading your thoughts and learning your process.... Thanks for everything you do. It's appreciated!!!
 
None of the 3 American teams, currently undefeated (Temple, Houston, Memphis) have any reasonable chance to crash the playoff do they?

I'm assuming not, based mostly on the conversations we've seen in any threads discussing the potential playoff teams, as the talk is always about the 1 loss teams who would be next on the list once the unbeatens (in the Power 5) lose and open up a spot.

It also brings up the thought that the playoff with only 4 teams is just nonsense. There are 5 power conferences, so without even talking about a non-power 5 team "crashing" their playoff, one of the conferences will be left out every single year. I wouldn't mind seeing one bid to each of the Power 5, and then either a wildcard team from one of those 5 conferences, or the best non-power 5 team getting in, provided they are undefeated.
 
Committee will be begging for Memphis to lose if Bama make it in as a one loss team, imagine that one
 
kjohnson109 said:
Committee will be begging for Memphis to lose if Bama make it in as a one loss team, imagine that one
Click to expand...

Houston may even be better than Memphis. I'm just wondering if most, or any, think an undefeated team from the American conference deserve a shot.

They play each other on 11/14, so only one of them will have a beef if they run the table.
 
Lareux said:
None of the 3 American teams, currently undefeated (Temple, Houston, Memphis) have any reasonable chance to crash the playoff do they?

I'm assuming not, based mostly on the conversations we've seen in any threads discussing the potential playoff teams, as the talk is always about the 1 loss teams who would be next on the list once the unbeatens (in the Power 5) lose and open up a spot.

It also brings up the thought that the playoff with only 4 teams is just nonsense. There are 5 power conferences, so without even talking about a non-power 5 team "crashing" their playoff, one of the conferences will be left out every single year. I wouldn't mind seeing one bid to each of the Power 5, and then either a wildcard team from one of those 5 conferences, or the best non-power 5 team getting in, provided they are undefeated.
Click to expand...

If Temple beat ND, and Memphis beat Temple, then there is an outside chance. Least of all past that they need two 2 loss conference champions, and one of them being Stanford
 
Lareux said:
Houston may even be better than Memphis. I'm just wondering if most, or any, think an undefeated team from the American conference deserve a shot.
Click to expand...

Could be, but the real comparison of Bama at home against Ole Miss, and Memphis at home against Ole Miss...is undeniable
 
kjohnson109 said:
Could be, but the real comparison of Bama at home against Ole Miss, and Memphis at home against Ole Miss...is undeniable
Click to expand...

What do you think if Houston beats Memphis on 11/14...would you still think Houston should get a shot? Assuming you think Memphis would deserve one...sounds like you do, just not certain.
 
Alan Tongue said:
If Temple beat ND, and Memphis beat Temple, then there is an outside chance. Least of all past that they need two 2 loss conference champions, and one of them being Stanford
Click to expand...

Yeah, if Memphis beats Navy, Houston, and then Temple in consecutive weeks, they would have a legitimate claim imo. Even over a 1 loss conference champion from a power 5.
 
Well yes but I have for years advocated for the smaller conferences

The way it is, natural selection should say Houston deserves, the one loss team at that point that can make a case is ND if Clemson are undefeated and highly ranked

It's all nonsense, like this "playoff" solved anything. Created more talking points is all
 
I mean we still have people complaining that the Big12 doesn't hold a conference championship game, yet the NCAA doesn't allow that without 12 teams...it's all fodder and water cooler shit
 
kjohnson109 said:
I mean we still have people complaining that the Big12 doesn't hold a conference championship game, yet the NCAA doesn't allow that without 12 teams...it's all fodder and water cooler shit
Click to expand...

The irony in all of that is that the Big 12 doesn't have 12 fucking teams.

People can still complain about them not having a title game...it's just the NCAA that should shoulder the blame then...change the rule and let them have a title game. You'd have to imagine they try and simply add 2 teams, but the NCAA can still let them have a title game.
 
Not a hijack. I enjoy the discussion. If this year's AAC has an undefeated team not make it, then when can that conference ever make it?

Temple 1-0 vs. power 5 (penn state)
Houston 1-0 vs. power 5 (Ville)
Memphis 2-0 vs. power 5 (Ole Miss and Kansas who obviously stinks)
ECU 1-1 vs. power 5 (VT who is Ohio State's signature win at this point, and a 7 pt loss to Florida)
Cincinnati 1-0 vs. power 5 (Miami)
USF 1-2 vs. power 5
Navy 0-0 vs. power 5

The top of the AAC has proven itself pretty formidable against the power 5 schools. There is zero way to assume the top of this conference is significantly worse than the top of the SEC, ACC, Big 12,Big Ten or Pac12.
 
Against the Huskies, Oregon actually passed for more yards then they rushed for the first time since the MSU game. Lockie and Allie (I think that's the kids name) are below average and both seemingly incapable of running the Oregon offensive system. It was disorienting to watch Oregon spend most of the Colorado game doing their best Alabama impression running everything between the tackles. This makes me wonder wtf has Helfrich been doing recruiting wise but that's a subject for another day. Oregon just seems much more balanced with Adams so I'm almost tempted to throw the other games out the window and essentially use a 2 game sample size (MSU, Washington).

Agree on the HFA. And Oregon under Helfrich has not struck me as the most resilient bunch.

clowncar said:
I will probably give that one a bit of a write up ...
I agree there is a big difference between Adams and Lockie or the soph for that matter.

But I think at the end of the day, Oregon goes as far as their run offense takes them and ASU has given up 76,62, 49 and 72 the last four games. Not against slouch either ..... USC UCLA Colorado and Utah. So I think Oregon may just need a lot more Adams than they are used to. I also think it is going to be a crazy weeknight pre-halloween atmosphere.

But i will get into it more later in the week ... but I like the match up.
Click to expand...
 
phife said:
Against the Huskies, Oregon actually passed for more yards then they rushed for the first time since the MSU game. Lockie and Allie (I think that's the kids name) are below average and both seemingly incapable of running the Oregon offensive system. It was disorienting to watch Oregon spend most of the Colorado game doing their best Alabama impression running everything between the tackles. This makes me wonder wtf has Helfrich been doing recruiting wise but that's a subject for another day. Oregon just seems much more balanced with Adams so I'm almost tempted to throw the other games out the window and essentially use a 2 game sample size (MSU, Washington).

Agree on the HFA. And Oregon under Helfrich has not struck me as the most resilient bunch.
Click to expand...


But using Washington and MSU as examples they had 432 and 442 in total yards respectively and those two games were two of the only three they were held to under 6 yards per play. That said, ASU has been vulnerable to the pass on defense, so if Adams is in a rhythm maybe they can get something done through the air. So I think it is definitely important that Oregon has him back for this one.
 
Lareux said:
Houston may even be better than Memphis. I'm just wondering if most, or any, think an undefeated team from the American conference deserve a shot.

They play each other on 11/14, so only one of them will have a beef if they run the table.
Click to expand...
Ray Tanner should just head to Houston with a contract and sign the coach that wins that game for the cocks!

It stinks an undefeated Houston team or an undefeated Memphis team with a BIG sec win gets no love
 
ksimpsc said:
Ray Tanner should just head to Houston with a contract and sign the coach that wins that game for the cocks!

It stinks an undefeated Houston team or an undefeated Memphis team with a BIG sec win gets no love
Click to expand...


Ya it isn't like they snuck by Ole Miss, they completely bitch slapped them.
 
If the playoff committee selects an undefeated AAC conference champion, we will have a 6 or 8 team playoff in place by the start of next season IMO. Best case for the status quo is either 4 undefeated power 5 conference champs, or the AAC champ has a loss. If a 1 loss Stanford or Alabama/LSU gets in over an undefeated AAC Champ, there will be some cries, but there is plenty of precedent for something like this so not a big deal nationally. Where the shit will really hit the fan is if the AAC Champ is undefeated, and no power 5 conference has an undefeated champ. If that happens, I don't see any way the committee can take themselves seriously if they leave Houston/Memphis/Temple out of it. As mentioned earlier, these teams have OOC wins against Power 5 schools, and outside of Memphis' win over Kansas, they have been against teams in the top half of those conferences. Given what we've seen, the SOS for these undefeated teams doesn't take much of a backseat to any of the power 5 teams, if any at all.
 
clowncar said:
you are the only one recalling the good times.

Did well in nfl for a long time. Last few years haven't been great and luckily i haven't been involved much. They are some of the tightest lines in the world and one of those sports where even the dumb bettor who makes his decision looking at the USA Today while at the watercooler has a fairly decent idea of each team's quality in comparison to other teams. The Fantasy Football has gone a long ways to making a more informed public bettor too. There is just way less dumb money as a percentage of the pool in NFL and the opening numbers just almost never suck.

I also just don't have the time to do it right. The college football is a passion of love .... I love handicapping it and i love watching it. So I make time for it because I love it .. and yet there is a part of me that cannot wait for February because I will have a weekend day back and can rest and relax and spend more time with friends and family. I work really hard and that work coincides with travel and I could use my Saturdays back .... not to mention the evenings and late nights spent handicapping. No way i could throw NFL in there. I say that but come March I will be in CFB withdrawal too. Grass is always greener ....
Click to expand...


I've lost a lot of money the last two seasons with the NFL. I used to do pretty good, not sure what is going on lately.
I've lost all of my baseball profit and that is was a decent amount.
 
ND, sometimes a great schedule and sometimes not, depends on the year

time to pick a conference. all this bullshit with them gets old
 
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