time to post my week 9 card so far

Only concern with Tenny is that they've just finished a gauntlet and you have to wonder how much they left on the field in Tuscaloosa. Helluva an effort vs. Bama, no doubt. I can't imagine it didn't take a lot out of them.
 
That was my initial thought on the game too, but at 3-4 with a cupcake stretch remaining, I have to imagine their goal is finishing the season 8-4 and building on that 7-6 season last year. Should also be a pretty good atmosphere in Lexington (with the typical 10-15K Tennessee fans), so I don't really see any way they sleep on the Cats. And Dobbs/Hurd will just be a nightmare for the UK D.
 
CrimsonK said:
Ole Sis/Auburn 58.5 seem high to you?
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Ya but Auburn seems to be in that area where Gus has them getting better every week on offense. i know Ark d was gassed but how many straight td's did they score on Ark at the end of that game. Ole Miss O should abuse them too. I did make it lower ... but I get it being a tad higher than me. I am a little butthurt with ole miss games right now too so i need a variance to get involved because there is a decent chance that I don't understand them, despite having them power rated right to start the year. Probably over reacting to two results but I will step away from them for at least a week as far as getting involved.
 
I lean toward USC/Cal over as well, but Clay Helton's recent comments of slowing the tempo down concern me a bit
 
Reds4 said:
I lean toward USC/Cal over as well, but Clay Helton's recent comments of slowing the tempo down concern me a bit
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USC runs a no-huddle offense and typically operates at a brisk pace. But interim coach Clay Helton decided to slow things down against Utah on Saturday, and it worked to the Trojans’ advantage.
USC possessed the ball for a season-high 34 minutes, 50 seconds in its 42-24 victory over Utah, which came into the game undefeated and ranked third in the AP Top 25. That total included more than 20 minutes of possession in the second half, when the Trojans expertly protected a double-digit lead.
“When you get a little bit ahead, obviously time management becomes an issue,” Helton said Sunday. “There were some deliberate attempts to be able to slow the game down.”
Helton had an ulterior motive for applying the brakes to USC’s normally up-tempo offense: The Trojans were operating behind a makeshift, injury-riddled offensive line that had to change during the course of the game.
 
clowncar said:
Ya but Auburn seems to be in that area where Gus has them getting better every week on offense. i know Ark d was gassed but how many straight td's did they score on Ark at the end of that game. Ole Miss O should abuse them too. I did make it lower ... but I get it being a tad higher than me. I am a little butthurt with ole miss games right now too so i need a variance to get involved because there is a decent chance that I don't understand them, despite having them power rated right to start the year. Probably over reacting to two results but I will step away from them for at least a week as far as getting involved.
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I think that's wise. Hard team to figure, Ole Miss. I wonder how much better Auburn is getting, at one point in the 1st half they were down 14 and Arky had more first downs than Auburn had total yards. There in OT they were just imposing their will, thought they were relatively fortunate to get there with some busted coverages and bad throws by White that Louis bailed them out on. Agree that Arky defense was just gassed. OM has tons of injuries on defense too but getting Nkmediche back (assuming he wants to finish the season) and having Elston healthy at safety are big for them.
 
I just think a Cal game breaks out in their own house and don't think Helton or USC are truly committed to being slow. It was a nice drive in the third qtr Saturday. I also think that they can break big plays on Cal which would limit the value of slightly slower USC Pace. Pretty sure Cal can make plays in the passing game here too. So USC is gonna need to score in a way they didn't against Utah.

But ya ... USC was slower last game.
 
Good luck cc, keep kicking ass. What do you see in the Mich/Minn game? Are the Wolves gonna be deflated after that last second loss, or after a bye are they gonna take it out on the Gophers, who also kicked their asses last year at home 30-14 as a 10 pt. dog?
 
clowncar said:
I guess I should autoplay the tulsa/smu ... but I am resisting for some reason.
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SMU is still a running team at its' core, and still plays at a below average speed of pace in spite of the new coaches and schemes. Tulsa prefers to run when leading or in close games, which they rate to do in this contest. Both teams do have far better offenses than defenses, and I still profile it as an Over++ game, but 75 is too high. I put it at 67. SMU should have just enough success moving the ball to limit Tulsa's possessions. That being said, Tulsa can obviously score on any play from any position in this contest. It's a pass for me, though if it were to go a point or two higher I would probably take the Under for a small play.
 
inZane said:
Good luck cc, keep kicking ass. What do you see in the Mich/Minn game? Are the Wolves gonna be deflated after that last second loss, or after a bye are they gonna take it out on the Gophers, who also kicked their asses last year at home 30-14 as a 10 pt. dog?
Click to expand...


It's why you hired Harbaugh.... this is where the coach makes his money. But I am not sure Michigan's offense is at a place that they should really be laying these kinds of pts against a decent defense. I am passing. Hard to figure the game out but lean dog not favorite. The michigan state loss hurts because they thought they had won but the box score doesn't exactly instill confidence in you to expect to win by three scores..... so I think people may be focusing on the fact that Michigan had MSU beat rather than the fact that MSU outplayed them.
 
Good points, the home dog looks juicy. Kick 'em when they're down, and getting close to two tds as backup...

:cheers3:
 
Thanks Jimmy.

I am left taking a shot at this ... Firing your offensive coordinator and switching QB's in the same week is a lot of distraction and tough to think you can have a ton of success against a Charlie Strong defense under those circumstances. Some of the player responses to the firing and qb switch seem pretty negative. This is a key game in order for Texas to make it to a bowl game and the team seems to be moving in the right direction .. coming together. Seems the two teams are in opposite places in that regard. I think it has been a minute since I felt comfortable backing this team ..... and I realize Rhoads wants this one ....but ...

ADD

Texas Longhorns -6.5
 
Hey CC, great job this season. Always make time to stop in and read your thread. Interested to know what you made GT/UVA total? Seems 5-6 pts high to me for some reason. Also curious about what you made WK/ODU total? It seems about the same amount low to me. Thanks in advance, and best of luck as always.
 
ram1502 said:
Hey CC, great job this season. Always make time to stop in and read your thread. Interested to know what you made GT/UVA total? Seems 5-6 pts high to me for some reason. Also curious about what you made WK/ODU total? It seems about the same amount low to me. Thanks in advance, and best of luck as always.
Click to expand...


Both are currently right around what I made ... though I don't know if the total move on GT/UVA happened before or after you posted this question.

I was looking at GT and the Under early and looks like I waited too long on both.
 
Zoinks, forgot to post my WYO/USU Under 51, definitely like those 2 there.

That ISU fires their OC seems completely unjustified by my numbers. If anything, they are over-performing versus expectations this year (depending on what the expectations were, I guess). Their passing game has been inconsistent (part of that due to the bad conditions played in last week at Baylor), but their run game has been above average in the FBS. I wonder if this an irrational decision provoked by the inability to score in the final 3 quarters against TCU a couple of weeks ago, in spite of numerous drives into TCU territory (just one more TD, Iowa St., and I break even on the Over plays, two and I win them both -- thanks for nothing!). By the numbers this firing makes zero sense to me, as their offense is better than their defense. I wonder what has been going on behind the scenes...or even in front, I know nothing about the situation.
 
yea SC I thought it was wild they fired the OC after a 18 point loss to Baylor, got to be something going on back there
 
clowncar said:
Both are currently right around what I made ... though I don't know if the total move on GT/UVA happened before or after you posted this question.

I was looking at GT and the Under early and looks like I waited too long on both.
Click to expand...
Got ya. Thanks for the response. I was talking about before the move. Shoulda just played it. But I def think gt total is still high. I think what fsu did on offense prepared gt for alot of what uva wants to do. And gt def played well last week. Of course that was in bobby dodd in a good spot situationally. But uva off is no fsu off. On the flipside, i think uva has the schemes and overall def discipline to keep gt option attack somewhat quiet. I think first to 23/24 pts wins it. 24-20 somebody.
 
Ram - I find GT games tough to total.

Cg - thanks

Crunch - Wyoming QB situation is the main impetus for my under play. I think Wyoming will be attempting to run the football a lot. I also think it is the impetus for the move to 28. I am fine with it

http://<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/So8J3CPtwYo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>

As you can see, he doesn't appear to be a heavy gunned deep ball thrower. They are going to go with short passes, let him run some I would think and pound the rock with the running backs. He is 6-4 235 which means he has put on weight since the high school highlight reel above. I mean they let him carry the ball 10 times for 65 yards against EMU (opposite end of the run defense spectrum). Should be a running clock

capt- ty sir

Ksimp/scrunch - It isn't like this is the first time the fat man has been fired on bullshit. The man can coach football. Someone should get him as a head coach. Look what he did at Kansas and look at what they were before he got there and after they fired him for holding kids accountable. I am cheering for him to land somewhere and get the recognition of being a good coach .. recognition he deserves. More shocking to me is the Richardson thing ... he torched Texas in a game I watched live. Anyway .. it all gives us value on Texas in my opinion, and to a lesser degree the under ... both are decent .. I went for the one I liked more.
 
Add

Minnesota 14.5 -115

A little worried about distractions but who is Michigan's offense to be laying this to a good defense on the road?
 
Frank Costanza said:
Distractions? Or Minny is going to play its ass off for Kill? Probably the latter.
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Ya that is possible too. I just am not good at predicting such things. I like it better with just Kill on the sideline personally than this .... but there is that possibility of inspired effort.
 
The next one on my radar is South Carolina. TAMU looked pretty dysfunctional on the field last week .. and it looked very self-generated too as compared to just good defense from the opponent. Articles I have read since then seem to indicate locker room issues too. Yet the line keeps creeping up. It is getting tempting.
 
clowncar said:
The next one on my radar is South Carolina. TAMU looked pretty dysfunctional on the field last week .. and it looked very self-generated too as compared to just good defense from the opponent. Articles I have read since then seem to indicate locker room issues too. Yet the line keeps creeping up. It is getting tempting.
Click to expand...

+550 is tempting too, eh..? 15% implied probability, I think they win SU 1/5 or more
 
CrimsonK said:
+550 is tempting too, eh..? 15% implied probability, I think they win SU 1/5 or more
Click to expand...


You would think. If TAMU hasn't fixed the problem week over week then Scarolina should be favored. But interestingly, the line keeps going up AND the total keeps going up ... so someone is expecting a wake up call for the TAMU offense.
 
clowncar said:
You would think. If TAMU hasn't fixed the problem week over week then Scarolina should be favored. But interestingly, the line keeps going up AND the total keeps going up ... so someone is expecting a wake up call for the TAMU offense.
Click to expand...

Ya, you're right about that. Laying 3 scores with a hurt(?) QB, crushed morale with rumblings of a divided team isn't the type of thing I would prefer to wager on but to each his own. Coming from the guy who would feel squeamish laying 3 scores with the Pats against a good college team :tiphat:
 
CrimsonK said:
Ya, you're right about that. Laying 3 scores with a hurt(?) QB, crushed morale with rumblings of a divided team isn't the type of thing I would prefer to wager on but to each his own. Coming from the guy who would feel squeamish laying 3 scores with the Pats against a good college team :tiphat:
Click to expand...


Utep would stop Brady if he came to the EP ... some bad water and bad burritos.


I assume Allen won't be starting fwiw, but won't be announced until Friday
 
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