RetroVK
This claim is disputed
hahaha
Time to post my bowl card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
hahaha
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
La Tech didn't do anything special, at all, other than putting on their uniforms and being partially interested in playing.
Compare and contrast with SMU - a putrid, pathetic, embarrassing and abysmal "effort". I'm leaving out other adjectives I'm sure.
Compare and contrast with SMU - a putrid, pathetic, embarrassing and abysmal "effort". I'm leaving out other adjectives I'm sure.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
You covered it pretty well Frank.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I already commented on the Wyoming game earlier in the thread. So Bahamas ....
Basically think we have two teams who prefer to run the football but Ohio is better at it 5.61 vs 4.53
Basically we have two teams that will have to defend the run today but Ohio is better at it 3.42 vs 4.41
When either team is forced into third and long Ohio has shown the better pass offense 7.5 vs 7.0 and 189 vs 174
And from a big play perspective Ohio has created more than uab and given up less than uab.
I know that this UAB team will likely be motivated (good luck figuring that out) and they are a wonderful story that would probably be a happy ending to a 30 for 30 some day were they to win today. But they match up poorly if Ohio tries. Also of import to me is that I think Oullette is one of the worst starting running backs in football (almost got 1000 yards this year anyway) and prefer the other options for Ohio at that position. They lose a little forward lean but they gain better opportunities for big plays if he doesn't play and I am crossing my fingers hoping that he doesn't
Basically think we have two teams who prefer to run the football but Ohio is better at it 5.61 vs 4.53
Basically we have two teams that will have to defend the run today but Ohio is better at it 3.42 vs 4.41
When either team is forced into third and long Ohio has shown the better pass offense 7.5 vs 7.0 and 189 vs 174
And from a big play perspective Ohio has created more than uab and given up less than uab.
I know that this UAB team will likely be motivated (good luck figuring that out) and they are a wonderful story that would probably be a happy ending to a 30 for 30 some day were they to win today. But they match up poorly if Ohio tries. Also of import to me is that I think Oullette is one of the worst starting running backs in football (almost got 1000 yards this year anyway) and prefer the other options for Ohio at that position. They lose a little forward lean but they gain better opportunities for big plays if he doesn't play and I am crossing my fingers hoping that he doesn't
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
If you play uab it is almost solely on motivation imo. The numbers don't make a case for UAB at all. In fact, from a matchup perspective it is one of the glaring cases of one team being able to stop what the other does on paper on one side of the ball and the opposite being true on the other side of the ball. But as we have seen with Oregon, SMU, Akron, and others, motivation matters a lot ... so if uab is trying hard and ohio isn't then ya .. uab will win.
And if you think you can cap motivation ... try it .. it's almost impossible.
And if you think you can cap motivation ... try it .. it's almost impossible.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
There is always the fade a MAC team in bowls. Over the years, their record is atrocious.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I love Rocky Long, and I love betting on his Aztecs, and I can't see Army stopping SDSU. However, Army is 3-0 ATS as a bowl dog since 1980, and it was presumably hard to imagine Army beating Mich St as +4, losing 28-29 vs Bama as +14 (1988), and losing 29-32 vs Aub (1996) as +8 over the years. Army and the under fit some very reliable angles. So
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I just see a game where the following exists
1. Both teams want to run the ball and are good at it SDSU 11th in rushing, Army #1. 14th/4th in ypc respectively.
2. SDSU 10th in stopping run, Army 68th. 18th and 100th in ypc against respectively.
3. SDSU rush defense translates to the option historically.
4. Both passing offenses suck.
5. The special player is on SDSU
Obviously a running clock and some of the Army numbers are skewed for having played against other option attacks but the defensive difference is pretty glaring.
1. Both teams want to run the ball and are good at it SDSU 11th in rushing, Army #1. 14th/4th in ypc respectively.
2. SDSU 10th in stopping run, Army 68th. 18th and 100th in ypc against respectively.
3. SDSU rush defense translates to the option historically.
4. Both passing offenses suck.
5. The special player is on SDSU
Obviously a running clock and some of the Army numbers are skewed for having played against other option attacks but the defensive difference is pretty glaring.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
South Florida ....
Well, we have two pretty good offenses but again, I think the USF defense is a step above Texas Tech, even if Techs defense is better than most years. I also think that this is a game USF can get up for. Their big power 5 game of the regular season was Illinois. They lost their lone big game on kickoff return for a td against ucf. I think they could be motivated for this one since it would be their signature win of the year. Obviously this says something about the strength of their schedule (as it does with memphis and ucf) which I suppose is a legit concern. Strong also has some experience against Tech system having coached against it with mixed results. No doubt Tech has the coaching advantage in this one.
It's enough for me to think USF finds a way to win ... an early QB injury here would be worse to USF than the FIU qb injury was to the panthers but we have to take that kind of risk in a lot of these games.
Besides the SOS and coaching advantages for Tech, USF has shown defensive weakness in the secondary at times which tech is capable of beating. Won't be easy, and expect a more competitive game than what we have seen most of the bowl season but the better team and one I think should care cannot be ignored. And while there are some betting pattern aspects of this game that I don't like, at least it wasn't a big move against in a game invoving a florida school
Well, we have two pretty good offenses but again, I think the USF defense is a step above Texas Tech, even if Techs defense is better than most years. I also think that this is a game USF can get up for. Their big power 5 game of the regular season was Illinois. They lost their lone big game on kickoff return for a td against ucf. I think they could be motivated for this one since it would be their signature win of the year. Obviously this says something about the strength of their schedule (as it does with memphis and ucf) which I suppose is a legit concern. Strong also has some experience against Tech system having coached against it with mixed results. No doubt Tech has the coaching advantage in this one.
It's enough for me to think USF finds a way to win ... an early QB injury here would be worse to USF than the FIU qb injury was to the panthers but we have to take that kind of risk in a lot of these games.
Besides the SOS and coaching advantages for Tech, USF has shown defensive weakness in the secondary at times which tech is capable of beating. Won't be easy, and expect a more competitive game than what we have seen most of the bowl season but the better team and one I think should care cannot be ignored. And while there are some betting pattern aspects of this game that I don't like, at least it wasn't a big move against in a game invoving a florida school
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
App State ...
Here, I mainly think that the teams are more even than the spread indicates. I realize I preach cap to the winner and that has played out so far during bowl season but I really think this is a one score game and a classic with both teams interested. Toledo has better offensive numbers with App 33rd in nation in yards, Toledo 8th. They are 19th and 7th in yards per play. Defensively App st 38th and Toledo 56th, 53rd and 63rd respectively in yards per play. Toledo has played a tougher schedule in my estimation but schedules are weak sauce. Toledo is the more balanced offense as App st is slightly more dependent on the run. The ypa numbers for toledo are pretty solid. Both pass defenses are about average. App St, however, has an advantage in that they are better at defending the run (the running game being the preference of both teams) than the rockets.
Some fear that I am on the wrong end of special teams in what is otherwise a close affair.
Something that could be key ... and why someone might consider the first half a better option to take app state than the full game is that Toledos best pass rusher will miss the first half because of a targeting penalty. It should also be noted because if App State is succeeding at pass protect at the half, it doesn't necessarily mean they will succeed at pass protect second half when the matchups change.
really looking forward to this game and hope it is a close one.
Here, I mainly think that the teams are more even than the spread indicates. I realize I preach cap to the winner and that has played out so far during bowl season but I really think this is a one score game and a classic with both teams interested. Toledo has better offensive numbers with App 33rd in nation in yards, Toledo 8th. They are 19th and 7th in yards per play. Defensively App st 38th and Toledo 56th, 53rd and 63rd respectively in yards per play. Toledo has played a tougher schedule in my estimation but schedules are weak sauce. Toledo is the more balanced offense as App st is slightly more dependent on the run. The ypa numbers for toledo are pretty solid. Both pass defenses are about average. App St, however, has an advantage in that they are better at defending the run (the running game being the preference of both teams) than the rockets.
Some fear that I am on the wrong end of special teams in what is otherwise a close affair.
Something that could be key ... and why someone might consider the first half a better option to take app state than the full game is that Toledos best pass rusher will miss the first half because of a targeting penalty. It should also be noted because if App State is succeeding at pass protect at the half, it doesn't necessarily mean they will succeed at pass protect second half when the matchups change.
really looking forward to this game and hope it is a close one.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
VK: I have a hard time betting against Academy schools in Bowl Games. My prejudice says they will always be motivated, will not be hung over & will not ship it in if they get down. That said, I think SDSU will not have motivation problems here and they do have the premier player on the field.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
4 days off my end of life assuming i live 4 more days.
Halfway through 2nd qtr and sdsu seems to not have an answer for the option
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Merry Christmas Mars, Bones and all.
As for tonights under investment... It looks to me like this game should have about 130 plays (or less) and that immediately makes me think under is worth an original look. From a trending perspective (not my forte), these teams have really gone under the total a lot this year. Rarely is it more obvious that the best player on the field is a defensive player even when the defensive player is the best on the field but Oliver should be tough to move out. Fresno has one of the lesser offenses in bowl season and while you would probably be shocked by the Houston defensive statistics (they look better with the eyes than their aggregate stats would suggest), I think those are skewed by opponent. Houston has played a lot of offensive power houses ... 11th, 17th, 16th, 4th, 7th, 43rd, 44th, 42nd, 72nd (tulane option), 80th (Temple) and 117th (Rice). Obviously they played a lot of quality offense but i wanted to point out that even two of the three not so great offenses they faced were competent offenses and bowl eligible teams. Moreover, while they played two option teams which reduces pace numbers, they played some really fast paced teams in tulsa, memphis, smu, texas tech, east carolina, and Arizona. Fresno won't play at that pace. My point is that this is significant class relief for the Houston defense. Meanwhile, Fresno has repeatedly shown the ability to play good defense and tackle well. They rank in the top 20 in yards allowed and yards per play allowed. The motivation should be there. This team had an amazing turnaround this year under Tedford and fell just short against a Boise St team (played them two times in a row) that we just saw anally violate Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. So I think they will want to end this great season on a positive note and that should make for a game more in line with their normal games than the strangeness that some bowl games take on. The defense has traveled to Hawaii before this year and performed well, holding the opponent under 300 yards, so they might be set up to handle the distractions that Hawaii can bring. I also think Houston will be motivated after their bowl performance last year, receiving a true reward after a year they had to endure the distractions of hurricane carnage in Houston, and they should get a good set of practice a year into the new system. South Florida was the only defense on the cougs schedule that you could compare to Fresno and Houston didn't manage 400 in that one. I think the defenses have the advantage on both sides of the ball and that is why I went with the over ... I think the Cougars have the better offense and if motivated, are probably the side I prefer right now (made it -3).
Fresno was plus 8 in turnover margin, Houston -2 ..
If we can avoid turnovers that turn into pts in this game, I think the defenses are the better unit for each team and control the day in a game that should not see an enormous amount of plays. Perfect day for football expected of course and injury/suspension/sit-out situation does not look as particularly interesting as some other games.
I will call for 24-21 Houston in this one and in most scenarios for this game, I think we see a close one so we will have to avoid the overtime. Yes, I said avoid overtime. I think it is a legit concern prior to kickoff.
Defense, clap clap, defense.
As for tonights under investment... It looks to me like this game should have about 130 plays (or less) and that immediately makes me think under is worth an original look. From a trending perspective (not my forte), these teams have really gone under the total a lot this year. Rarely is it more obvious that the best player on the field is a defensive player even when the defensive player is the best on the field but Oliver should be tough to move out. Fresno has one of the lesser offenses in bowl season and while you would probably be shocked by the Houston defensive statistics (they look better with the eyes than their aggregate stats would suggest), I think those are skewed by opponent. Houston has played a lot of offensive power houses ... 11th, 17th, 16th, 4th, 7th, 43rd, 44th, 42nd, 72nd (tulane option), 80th (Temple) and 117th (Rice). Obviously they played a lot of quality offense but i wanted to point out that even two of the three not so great offenses they faced were competent offenses and bowl eligible teams. Moreover, while they played two option teams which reduces pace numbers, they played some really fast paced teams in tulsa, memphis, smu, texas tech, east carolina, and Arizona. Fresno won't play at that pace. My point is that this is significant class relief for the Houston defense. Meanwhile, Fresno has repeatedly shown the ability to play good defense and tackle well. They rank in the top 20 in yards allowed and yards per play allowed. The motivation should be there. This team had an amazing turnaround this year under Tedford and fell just short against a Boise St team (played them two times in a row) that we just saw anally violate Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. So I think they will want to end this great season on a positive note and that should make for a game more in line with their normal games than the strangeness that some bowl games take on. The defense has traveled to Hawaii before this year and performed well, holding the opponent under 300 yards, so they might be set up to handle the distractions that Hawaii can bring. I also think Houston will be motivated after their bowl performance last year, receiving a true reward after a year they had to endure the distractions of hurricane carnage in Houston, and they should get a good set of practice a year into the new system. South Florida was the only defense on the cougs schedule that you could compare to Fresno and Houston didn't manage 400 in that one. I think the defenses have the advantage on both sides of the ball and that is why I went with the over ... I think the Cougars have the better offense and if motivated, are probably the side I prefer right now (made it -3).
Fresno was plus 8 in turnover margin, Houston -2 ..
If we can avoid turnovers that turn into pts in this game, I think the defenses are the better unit for each team and control the day in a game that should not see an enormous amount of plays. Perfect day for football expected of course and injury/suspension/sit-out situation does not look as particularly interesting as some other games.
I will call for 24-21 Houston in this one and in most scenarios for this game, I think we see a close one so we will have to avoid the overtime. Yes, I said avoid overtime. I think it is a legit concern prior to kickoff.
Defense, clap clap, defense.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Gonna have a little fun this year .... gonna show some past bowl bad beats ... just ones that cost me of course .. I won't show the lucky one.
1. Bahamas Bowl - Wky minus the pts ... showed in prior post in this thread. To add insult to injury, they went for two after that play to keep the overtime cover from happening too.
2. Belk Bowl - Guess what I had? Duke plus more than a TD .. find the way it loses ...
Start the video around the 4 minute mark.
1. Bahamas Bowl - Wky minus the pts ... showed in prior post in this thread. To add insult to injury, they went for two after that play to keep the overtime cover from happening too.
2. Belk Bowl - Guess what I had? Duke plus more than a TD .. find the way it loses ...
Start the video around the 4 minute mark.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Also, was looking at my records from last year and bowl season wasn't that good. I was over .500 and lost money with juice, but I thought it was better than that .. maybe by large vs small it was. Anyway, wanted to correct that since I mentioned it being good in post #1 and it really wasn't.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The stanford total was a stinger and a half....td on first play of game, int ret td, punt ret td, backdoor td against the backup defenders and unsportsmanlike bomb td instead of taking knees against one of the classiest and most respected coaches in the business. Shaw should be ashamed.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
5. laying 1.5 down 3, the last play of the game was an Indiana FG attempt which was good but the game ended due to the refs not noticing that it went in. It was also one of the most lopsided officiated games you will see .. looking back at my 2015 bowl thread some funny posts about the refs there.
It also hurt because indiana should have won by three scores or so. Completely dominated that football game.
It also hurt because indiana should have won by three scores or so. Completely dominated that football game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
To mix it up ...
I will give my favorite bowl lucky game ....
I took the over in TCU/Oregon game ... it was a huge number like 78 or something. Then Boykin who was having arguably the best season of any cfb qb at the time, partied a little too hard and got suspended for the bowl game. Now what? I took the first half under as an attempt to bail on the game thinking that the tcu offense should improve as the game went on but would probably struggle either the whole game or certainly more the first half.
It was 31-0 at halftime with Oregon in the lead.
TCU won the second half 31-0.
went to overtime and both scored TDs 38-38
went to 2ot fg and fg 41-41
And TCU won in the third overtime
1h under winner
full game over winner
Soooo lucky after getting soooo unlucky with boykin shennanigans
I will give my favorite bowl lucky game ....
I took the over in TCU/Oregon game ... it was a huge number like 78 or something. Then Boykin who was having arguably the best season of any cfb qb at the time, partied a little too hard and got suspended for the bowl game. Now what? I took the first half under as an attempt to bail on the game thinking that the tcu offense should improve as the game went on but would probably struggle either the whole game or certainly more the first half.
It was 31-0 at halftime with Oregon in the lead.
TCU won the second half 31-0.
went to overtime and both scored TDs 38-38
went to 2ot fg and fg 41-41
And TCU won in the third overtime
1h under winner
full game over winner
Soooo lucky after getting soooo unlucky with boykin shennanigans
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