Time to post my bowl card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
How about the Cotton Bowl - Baylor - Michigan St? That would qualify as a bad beat or extremely fortunate win. I was on the lucky side on that one, was very large for today's figures on MSU and I ran around my house screaming when a sure loser turned into a highly improbable winner. MSU trailed by 20 twice in the second half. Blk'd a late game FG to keep it a 6 pt game and then drove for game winner with xpt with :17 left.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
I was on the losing side of all of these.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
I was on the under in that Houston-Pittsburgh game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I drastically got the number of plays in the game wrong.
I expected more in the 130 area and they had 161 or something like that.
Obviously blocked fg for a td and interception for a td hurt as well .. thought it was about to be a miracle win when they had the 15 yard penalty at the 1 but alas.
More yards than I expected, way more throwing than I expected and the extra plays that I didn't think were occurring is basically what lost the bet. It was by far the most plays in a fresno state game all year. I think Houston had maybe three games with this many plays in it and it was against the likes of Memphis, ECU and South Florida ... so just didn't see this coming.
And that is the thing with pace and a low total .. if you get tons of plays, the nature of the beast is that something is going to happen somewhere... and it certainly did in this one.
The catch the Houston kid made on third down either the play before or two plays before the pick six kept houston from punting and I think Fresno had a decent chance to run out the clock had they. If not, Houston likely backed up for final drive. The cougs didn't do much all game and I think there is a big difference in how fresno defends late between being ahead 6 compared to 13.
Also, as long as we are on the subject ...why didn't Fresno go for two pts after the pick six with 3:49 to go? How dumb are these coaches?
I expected more in the 130 area and they had 161 or something like that.
Obviously blocked fg for a td and interception for a td hurt as well .. thought it was about to be a miracle win when they had the 15 yard penalty at the 1 but alas.
More yards than I expected, way more throwing than I expected and the extra plays that I didn't think were occurring is basically what lost the bet. It was by far the most plays in a fresno state game all year. I think Houston had maybe three games with this many plays in it and it was against the likes of Memphis, ECU and South Florida ... so just didn't see this coming.
And that is the thing with pace and a low total .. if you get tons of plays, the nature of the beast is that something is going to happen somewhere... and it certainly did in this one.
The catch the Houston kid made on third down either the play before or two plays before the pick six kept houston from punting and I think Fresno had a decent chance to run out the clock had they. If not, Houston likely backed up for final drive. The cougs didn't do much all game and I think there is a big difference in how fresno defends late between being ahead 6 compared to 13.
Also, as long as we are on the subject ...why didn't Fresno go for two pts after the pick six with 3:49 to go? How dumb are these coaches?
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Well I haven't bet it yet
. Have you?And I haven't seen anyone anywhere predict SC to win...not just ESPN. OSU has some very glaring advantages here that don't require much digging to uncover.
With that said I'm showing the majority of bets on SC...enough to qualify as a public dog? I feel like getting over a td with the world's most talented team will be very hard to pass up for casual bettors.
I feel pretty strongly at this point that the only way SC wins this game is with several OSU turnovers and lots of sloppiness which is certainly possible as it's what OSU has done all year with the exception of maybe the MSU game? They managed to keep wisky in a game that really should've been over at halftime.
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
On a comparative level, it appears the glaring difference between the two teams is the rush defense for Ohio State which would be big given that USC runs the ball. The pass defense numbers are easily accounted for by the difference in opponent styles. Speaking of opponents, closer examination of the strength of schedules between the two has ohio state closer than you might expect to USC, probably close enough to look at the numbers as they sit.
The Ohio State motivation is an interesting problem. Usually when a good coach with time to prepare is coming off of a humiliating bowl loss from the prior year (31-0), I like them to be motivated in the next year. But Ohio State had to be thinking playoff and now they are stuck in a great bowl matchup but it also has to be disappointing. I lean to them showing up.
The one thing here that is interesting to me and why I like USC ... I think Ohio State can be passed on if the team passing is competent.
Oklahoma 3rd 386 pass yards
Penn State 25th 192 pass yards (PSU nursing a big lead the whole game)
Nebraska 27th 349 pass yards
Indiana 37th 420 pass yards (granted a lot of throw it up for grabs stuff)
Iowa 88th 244 pass yards (i kind of threw this game out in my capping-fluke)
Michigan State 76th 131 pass yards
Wisconsin 96th 238 pass yards
UNLV 97th 88 pass yards
Illinois 106th 16 pass yards
Michigan 112th 195 pass yards
Terps 116th 55 pass yards
Rutgers 125th 92 pass yards
Army 130th 19 pass yards (about 12 below their average)
USC probably has the best offensive line they will face all year, though I guess Oklahoma is about equal. As you can see in their pass defense results, they simply dominate really bad pass offenses and they played A LOT of really bad pass offenses. USC is 18th (playing in offensive not defensive conference). Moreover, Darnold mobility poses a different animal of a sort than the less mobile QBs they have faced. In fact, his mobility could give the trojans the extra time to make plays against that secondary that other QBs don't have the time for. USC balance also means that Ohio State still has to account for the Trojan running game. i just don't think ohio state has had to play a balanced team very often defensively this year so it isn't quite as easy to gameplan to stop as it is Wisconsin or Michigan where you know that if you stop the run, you won't likely be burned by the pass .... (when they faced indiana who has balance they loaded the line of scrimmage and shut down the hoosiers rush offense completely but were burned on the back end). I do think a major issue that could rear its head against ohio state is the Darnold turnover. Ohio state could easily score defensively in the game, particularly if the trojans cannot run at all.
I don't think the USC defense can hold up over time against Ohio State, so if you don't think USC can pass the football for 220-250 yards, then I do think Ohio State would probably cover in that scenario. With that said, USC defense plays in an offensive not defensive conference, so I would expect It isn't some offense they cannot limit somewhat if they aren't on the field too long.
I am hoping for a great game between a classic Rose Bowl type matchup in the cotton bowl.
BTW I also noticed on espnchalk that USC had received 53% of the bets, so yeah, it appears that while ESPN and everyone else appears to be picking Ohio State on the surface, USC may actually be a public dog. USC is overestimated and overbet on a regular basis though. West of the Rockies they seem to be the team that has backing.
The Ohio State motivation is an interesting problem. Usually when a good coach with time to prepare is coming off of a humiliating bowl loss from the prior year (31-0), I like them to be motivated in the next year. But Ohio State had to be thinking playoff and now they are stuck in a great bowl matchup but it also has to be disappointing. I lean to them showing up.
The one thing here that is interesting to me and why I like USC ... I think Ohio State can be passed on if the team passing is competent.
Oklahoma 3rd 386 pass yards
Penn State 25th 192 pass yards (PSU nursing a big lead the whole game)
Nebraska 27th 349 pass yards
Indiana 37th 420 pass yards (granted a lot of throw it up for grabs stuff)
Iowa 88th 244 pass yards (i kind of threw this game out in my capping-fluke)
Michigan State 76th 131 pass yards
Wisconsin 96th 238 pass yards
UNLV 97th 88 pass yards
Illinois 106th 16 pass yards
Michigan 112th 195 pass yards
Terps 116th 55 pass yards
Rutgers 125th 92 pass yards
Army 130th 19 pass yards (about 12 below their average)
USC probably has the best offensive line they will face all year, though I guess Oklahoma is about equal. As you can see in their pass defense results, they simply dominate really bad pass offenses and they played A LOT of really bad pass offenses. USC is 18th (playing in offensive not defensive conference). Moreover, Darnold mobility poses a different animal of a sort than the less mobile QBs they have faced. In fact, his mobility could give the trojans the extra time to make plays against that secondary that other QBs don't have the time for. USC balance also means that Ohio State still has to account for the Trojan running game. i just don't think ohio state has had to play a balanced team very often defensively this year so it isn't quite as easy to gameplan to stop as it is Wisconsin or Michigan where you know that if you stop the run, you won't likely be burned by the pass .... (when they faced indiana who has balance they loaded the line of scrimmage and shut down the hoosiers rush offense completely but were burned on the back end). I do think a major issue that could rear its head against ohio state is the Darnold turnover. Ohio state could easily score defensively in the game, particularly if the trojans cannot run at all.
I don't think the USC defense can hold up over time against Ohio State, so if you don't think USC can pass the football for 220-250 yards, then I do think Ohio State would probably cover in that scenario. With that said, USC defense plays in an offensive not defensive conference, so I would expect It isn't some offense they cannot limit somewhat if they aren't on the field too long.
I am hoping for a great game between a classic Rose Bowl type matchup in the cotton bowl.
BTW I also noticed on espnchalk that USC had received 53% of the bets, so yeah, it appears that while ESPN and everyone else appears to be picking Ohio State on the surface, USC may actually be a public dog. USC is overestimated and overbet on a regular basis though. West of the Rockies they seem to be the team that has backing.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
I would also throw in USC rush defense vs OSU rush offense.
[/QUOTE] Ohio State motivation is an interesting problem. Usually when a good coach with time to prepare is coming off of a humiliating bowl loss from the prior year (31-0), I like them to be motivated in the next year. But Ohio State had to be thinking playoff and now they are stuck in a great bowl matchup but it also has to be disappointing. I lean to them showing up.
[/QUOTE]
I have to think that both teams show up here. Probably a bit of a buzzkill for both teams playing on the 29th instead of new year's day but maybe I'm overthinking that one.
[/QUOTE] one thing here that is interesting to me and why I like USC ... I think Ohio State can be passed on if the team passing is competent.
[/QUOTE]
I think so too...provided Darnold has enough time and being one-dimensional isn't too problematic. I think Darnold gets his yards but don't see the WR's humiliating OSU DB's after the catch like they did vs stanford.
[/QUOTE]USC probably has the best offensive line they will face all year[/QUOTE]
Eh, not really buying this. USC OL is perpetually overrated and have fared poorly when going OOC and facing more physical defensive fronts. They didn't face the best front 7 in the conference (Wash). The OL struggled at times this year especially agains Texas and ND...and I watched ND get penetration when rushing only 3 guys. This OSU DL will be the best front 4 that USC has faced since Alabama last year when they got obliterated (with supposedly the best OL in the nation heading into the season).
I think some of this also comes down to style clashes and which conference you believe in more. I think looking at USC's past performances abasing big 10 opponents the past few years is really telling. In each game they were strong favorites and easily the more talented squad and playing in their back yard. In each game they really got beat up on both sides of the line and surrendered a lot of yardage on the ground. This time around they'll be playing a team just as physical but with greater talent and equal or better team speed.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
I haven no idea how to use the quote feature...sorry.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I don't really know how to use multiquote either Ali.
The thing is .. traditionally I believe in the BigTen style more. The same way I have traditionally believed in the SEC style more and in recent years, believed in the Clemson style. I like the hard nosed football and when similarly talented teams line up, I prefer the more physical of the two most of the time. From an entertainment standpoint, I also find the grinding style of football superior to the spread passing types of styles. That is personal preference.
With that said, I think this is one of the worst BigTens that we have seen in the last decade or so. I would say they are pretty top heavy with TOSU and Penn State. The bottom of that conference is such dog poo. Throw out Oregon State and every Pac12 team was one game within bowl eligibility.
If you look at ooc records this year between the power 5 ... . guess who has the best record? Pac12. I am not arguing that Pac12 is a better conference than the ACC or SEC or anything .. but they are right there with the Big12 and Big10 this year.
It makes it harder for me to respect the Big10 this year.
Circling back to style of play .. the Ohio State style generally shows up better from a motivation standpoint. Softer players physically on the football field are often just softer in general.
Not asking USC to win, though I don't think the pts have mattered in a single game so far this bowl season.
The thing is .. traditionally I believe in the BigTen style more. The same way I have traditionally believed in the SEC style more and in recent years, believed in the Clemson style. I like the hard nosed football and when similarly talented teams line up, I prefer the more physical of the two most of the time. From an entertainment standpoint, I also find the grinding style of football superior to the spread passing types of styles. That is personal preference.
With that said, I think this is one of the worst BigTens that we have seen in the last decade or so. I would say they are pretty top heavy with TOSU and Penn State. The bottom of that conference is such dog poo. Throw out Oregon State and every Pac12 team was one game within bowl eligibility.
If you look at ooc records this year between the power 5 ... . guess who has the best record? Pac12. I am not arguing that Pac12 is a better conference than the ACC or SEC or anything .. but they are right there with the Big12 and Big10 this year.
It makes it harder for me to respect the Big10 this year.
Circling back to style of play .. the Ohio State style generally shows up better from a motivation standpoint. Softer players physically on the football field are often just softer in general.
Not asking USC to win, though I don't think the pts have mattered in a single game so far this bowl season.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Also, after watching Boise State manhandle Oregon like the ducks were schoolgirls, I do worry I have overvalued that conference as a whole. And of course I would worry that TOSU just physically exerts their will, while pretty boy California kids turn to cheap origami and fold up,
I think Helton has this team thinking in a more physical way than a lot of the USC we have seen. Probably figured out how Stanford physical play has made them such a tough opponent in a conference predicated more on finesse.
Mentioning Helton ... I have no illusions about the coaching mismatch here.
I think Helton has this team thinking in a more physical way than a lot of the USC we have seen. Probably figured out how Stanford physical play has made them such a tough opponent in a conference predicated more on finesse.
Mentioning Helton ... I have no illusions about the coaching mismatch here.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
I don't think the big 10 has been worse this year than in previous years when they were really struggling due to PSU and mich being in the shitter. Big 10 always have a few programs who can't play a lick and then they go out and bring in 2 more dead bodies in rutgers (who somehow managed to look halfway competent vs washington in the opener) and maryland. Regardless, not sure if the lower tier schools effects handicapping the top teams in each conference.
Was also interesting last bowl season to see teams like Indiana and minnesota take it to more heavily favored and respected programs in utah and WSU.
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yes without question. Seriously.
Night v day of you actually watched them. That can't be real.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
And not sure what timeline you're looking at as far as getting stronger "as the year progressed"?
In the last 3 games of the season SC was held to below average rushing yards against colorado (ranked 109 in rush D ) and held way below average by the worst rushing defense in all of cfb, UCLA (129). We're talking roughly half the total that's typically allowed by UCLA. In the final game SC ran for the average amount given up by Stanford. SC was also held below season average against the mighty Oregon St. rush defense (121). In short, this is not a reliably good rush offense and they weren't necessarily any better down the stretch.
On the flip side...OSU (8 in rush D) held every single opponent under their season rushing average with the exception of Iowa. OSU also faced on average higher ranked rushing offenses (66) and SC faced on average lower ranked rushing defenses (74).
This is a big step up in competition for SC as far as the run game is concerned.
In the last 3 games of the season SC was held to below average rushing yards against colorado (ranked 109 in rush D ) and held way below average by the worst rushing defense in all of cfb, UCLA (129). We're talking roughly half the total that's typically allowed by UCLA. In the final game SC ran for the average amount given up by Stanford. SC was also held below season average against the mighty Oregon St. rush defense (121). In short, this is not a reliably good rush offense and they weren't necessarily any better down the stretch.
On the flip side...OSU (8 in rush D) held every single opponent under their season rushing average with the exception of Iowa. OSU also faced on average higher ranked rushing offenses (66) and SC faced on average lower ranked rushing defenses (74).
This is a big step up in competition for SC as far as the run game is concerned.
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AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
This will be a great opportunity for Helton to show that he's a better coach than Meyer since you have him above Meyer and Saban.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
I don't see how discussing SC's run game is wrecking anything. VK is certainly allowed to be the judge of that, however, as it's his thread.
Prior the season you said that helton is 'brilliant and that he 'might be the best out of saban/meyer/helton':
http://cappingthegame.com/forum/index.php?threads/my-pick-to-win-the-2017-ncaaf-championship.131319/
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
I mean I really don't care what you delete so do as you please but I'd be curious to know what exactly needed an "emergency cleanup" on Christmas night(!)?.
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
We're fine. Argument/debate is fine just don't let it get personal. Some quick thoughts on the games tomorrow.
Utah - Second leg of the Wong teaser with the first leg of Troy cashing already. Basically, there are a few things to like here ..
1. Intra-team disparity based on starting QB. Both teams success seems very dependent on who is playing QB for them. Both Utes Huntley and WVU Grier are the key players to make their team go. As I type this Huntley appears a go, Grier doesn't. In the one game where Grier was a known out, the run to pass ratio was 5/2 over seventy plays. They threw for a season low 50% completion rate and a season low of 137 yards. While not the dominant rush defense of some recent years, Utah is still pretty good giving up just 4.13 per carry and allowing about 140 a game. The point being, WVU does not rate to have overwhelming success if they are one dimensional.
2. The West Virginia defense is not good. They gave up over 6 yards per play and held FBS opponents under 400 yards just twice all year. They did play a schedule that was heavy in decent offensive football teams.
3. The combination is sour for this matchup because the unlikelihood of wvu riding their running game to success to the lead, coupled with their likely inability to use the pass game to come back if they are behind, makes Utah an attractive favorite.
4. The Utah coach likes winning bowl games.
Northern Illinois
1. The strength of the two schedules are pretty divergent with Duke having played 5 more games against top 30 competition than did NIU, who didn't play such a team all year. NIU did play a ACC team early in the year against BC, a game in which they largely outplayed BC but lost by 3. So there is evidence that NIU can compete in this game.
2. Duke gives up .65 yards per play more than NIU per game. In fact, from a yards per play allowed perspective, the only teams that performed better than NIU all year are Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Wisconsin, Washington and Alabama. Not bad company. Looking at their out of conference yards per play allowed:
SDSU 4.70; SDSU avg was 6.29
Boston College 3.68; BC avg was 5.08
Nebraska 4.62; Corn avg was 5.59
So I think there is some legitimacy to the NIU defense that would lead one to believe that they hold Duke to their average yards per play or less. And Duke averages less than 5 yards per play.
3. I don't think there is glaring motivation advantages in this game. NIU gets a power 5 opponent but the venue isn't an exciting one NIU as I want to say Ford Field is where the MAC championship is played. NIU has played there 6 times since 2010. Perhaps there is a logistics advantage for NIU however. Duke seemed motivated to reach a bowl, but again the trip to Detroit is hardly the reward you are hoping for. I don't see a ton of advantage to motivation and venue.
4. I do think Duke has a coaching advantage.
5. All things considered, the teams look extremely even on paper and extremely even via the eye test from having watched them this year. While I make Duke the favorite, the points were too hard to pass up in this one.
Kansas State Ucla Under
1. I played this even before Rosen was knocked out. The reasoning is in an earlier post.
Utah - Second leg of the Wong teaser with the first leg of Troy cashing already. Basically, there are a few things to like here ..
1. Intra-team disparity based on starting QB. Both teams success seems very dependent on who is playing QB for them. Both Utes Huntley and WVU Grier are the key players to make their team go. As I type this Huntley appears a go, Grier doesn't. In the one game where Grier was a known out, the run to pass ratio was 5/2 over seventy plays. They threw for a season low 50% completion rate and a season low of 137 yards. While not the dominant rush defense of some recent years, Utah is still pretty good giving up just 4.13 per carry and allowing about 140 a game. The point being, WVU does not rate to have overwhelming success if they are one dimensional.
2. The West Virginia defense is not good. They gave up over 6 yards per play and held FBS opponents under 400 yards just twice all year. They did play a schedule that was heavy in decent offensive football teams.
3. The combination is sour for this matchup because the unlikelihood of wvu riding their running game to success to the lead, coupled with their likely inability to use the pass game to come back if they are behind, makes Utah an attractive favorite.
4. The Utah coach likes winning bowl games.
Northern Illinois
1. The strength of the two schedules are pretty divergent with Duke having played 5 more games against top 30 competition than did NIU, who didn't play such a team all year. NIU did play a ACC team early in the year against BC, a game in which they largely outplayed BC but lost by 3. So there is evidence that NIU can compete in this game.
2. Duke gives up .65 yards per play more than NIU per game. In fact, from a yards per play allowed perspective, the only teams that performed better than NIU all year are Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Wisconsin, Washington and Alabama. Not bad company. Looking at their out of conference yards per play allowed:
SDSU 4.70; SDSU avg was 6.29
Boston College 3.68; BC avg was 5.08
Nebraska 4.62; Corn avg was 5.59
So I think there is some legitimacy to the NIU defense that would lead one to believe that they hold Duke to their average yards per play or less. And Duke averages less than 5 yards per play.
3. I don't think there is glaring motivation advantages in this game. NIU gets a power 5 opponent but the venue isn't an exciting one NIU as I want to say Ford Field is where the MAC championship is played. NIU has played there 6 times since 2010. Perhaps there is a logistics advantage for NIU however. Duke seemed motivated to reach a bowl, but again the trip to Detroit is hardly the reward you are hoping for. I don't see a ton of advantage to motivation and venue.
4. I do think Duke has a coaching advantage.
5. All things considered, the teams look extremely even on paper and extremely even via the eye test from having watched them this year. While I make Duke the favorite, the points were too hard to pass up in this one.
Kansas State Ucla Under
1. I played this even before Rosen was knocked out. The reasoning is in an earlier post.
I didn't plan on cleaning up anything. I was thinking of making a Clay Helton Thread is all. Carry on all.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I feel like this is an important day for my bowl season. The 27th was always the day on the bowl schedule where I just thought I was going to lose. It was an extremely tough day to handicap and when handicapping was done, it turned out there wasn't that much value. I am going to lose tomorrow. So I desperately need to win about a unit today. I know you guys don't care but I sort of use the thread as a personal blog too.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I could write a book about the 26th and 27th. I'm the opposite. I usually take a bath from the 1st Bowl games on Saturday to Christmas Eve. It's the 26th and 27th where I've caught it all back. I didn't do that this year because I actually wanted to enjoy the week leading into Christmas. I feel no pressure going into today or tomorrow. Much nicer approach taken this year
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Interesting that Duke appeared so much in this thread on bad beat bowl games. I may have missed it, but was the A&M loss mentioned. I believe it was Manziel’s senior year. Duke got up big 1st H and allowed Johnny Football to bring the Ags all the way back. Duke Ml holders had to be planning how to spend their money, only to see it melt away.
